金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 8 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， LTD 聊聊看多玻璃主力合约的五大理由 基于行业供需、政策导向、技术面信号等核心维度，梳理抄底玻璃2605合约的五大核心逻辑， 兼顾基本面支撑与交易机会： 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.供应收缩确定性强：行业持续亏损倒逼产能出清，1月7日讯，近日现货报价相对平稳，近期部 分厂家提涨。月底年初产线冷修逐渐兑现，且存预期外冷修产线。当前浮法玻璃日熔降至15.15万吨， 为历年新低。 2.成本筑底支撑价格：当前价格逼近900-1000元/吨的现金流成本区间，下方下跌空间有限，原 材料市场供需平衡，液碱等核心原料价格稳定，成本端形成强支撑。 3.需求边际改善可期：2026年地产竣工降幅收窄至正增长，基建专项债与绿色建材政策拉动刚 需，光伏、汽车玻璃等新兴领域需求同比增长，出口市场持续扩容补充增量。 GOLDTRUST F ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 供给过剩再度主导市场，油价走弱。地缘：南美地缘生变，委内出现权力 真空，中东地缘升温，油价短线反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡 | | 原油 | 季叠加 谨慎看空 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原 | | ★ | | 油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页 | | | | 岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端提振，液化气短线走强。沙特上调明年 1 月 CP 合同价，成本端提 | | LPG | | 振，中长期锚定成本端原油，短线有所反弹，大趋势仍向下；供需方面， | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 开工率升至 75%，下游化工需求存在韧 | | | | 性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | | | 短期预期主导行情走势，关注装置变动节奏。停车比例上升至至 12%，LL | | L | 空头反弹 | 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超 ...

| 期现日报 | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | 2026年1日7日 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货收盘价 | 品种 | 1月6日 | 1月5日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | | | | | | 0.71% | 1694 | 1682 | 12 | 01合约 | 1778 | 10 | 05合约 | 1768 | 0.57% | 元/1中 | | | 09合约 | 1730 | 15 | 0.87% | 1745 | 2215 | 78 | 3.52% | 甲醇主力合约 | 2293 | | | | 期货合约价差 | 价差 | 1月6日 | 1月5日 | 涨跌 | 車位 | 旅跌幅 | | | | | | | 2.33% | 01合约-05合约 | -84 | -86 | 2 | -13.16% | 05合约-09合约 | 33 | 38 | -2 | 丁C/四中 | | | 09合约-01合约 | 48 | 3 | 6.25% | 51 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the short - term market expects marginal improvement in supply - demand, and the iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [2]. - The current background of crude oil is supply surplus despite frequent geopolitical conflicts, and short - term trading is recommended [3]. - Due to increased supply and reduced demand in the steel market, and unstable cost support, but boosted by macro sentiment, steel prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. - Silicon iron is expected to fluctuate around the cost valuation due to the double - weak supply and demand in the off - season [5]. - The overall supply of live pigs is loose, and short - term long positions are recommended while paying attention to the slaughter volume and sows culling [6]. - The short - term price of soybean meal is supported by cost and will fluctuate strongly, but may be pressured later [6]. - For palm oil, short - term long positions are recommended as the short - term market is bullish, and attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil on oils [7]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a volatile and strong pattern in the short term, but the risk of correction should be vigilant [8]. - For PTA, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term after long positions take profits [8]. - For natural rubber, it is advisable to go long at low prices in the short term [9]. - Methanol is expected to run strongly in the short term [10]. - Polypropylene is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [12]. Summary by Variety Iron Ore - From December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment was 3213.7 million tons, a decrease of 463.4 million tons from the previous period. The shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2742.7 million tons, a decrease of 316.9 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2824.7 million tons, an increase of 96.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2756.4 million tons, an increase of 155.0 million tons [2]. Crude Oil - As of January 2, 2026, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 4.9 million barrels. The sanctions on Venezuela have affected its oil production and shipping [3]. Steel - On January 6, 2026, the domestic steel market fluctuated weakly. The price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan was stable at 2930 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3308 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. Silicon Iron - The weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 18481.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.27%. The weekly output was 98900 tons, a slight increase of 400 tons. The weekly demand - to - supply ratio rose to 18.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34% [5]. Live Pigs - On January 6, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork in national agricultural product markets was 17.99 yuan/kg, a 0.2% increase from the previous day. The national pig price was stronger in the north and weaker in the south [6]. Soybean Meal - On January 6, 2026, the domestic soybean meal spot prices generally increased, with prices in Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong rising by 20 - 40 yuan/ton [6]. Palm Oil - From January 1 - 5, 2026, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 34.70% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.04%, and the output decreased by 34.48% [7]. Copper - The second - phase project of Mirador Copper Mine is expected to be postponed. Copper prices were driven up by geopolitical turmoil and mine - end disturbances, but the risk of correction should be vigilant [8]. PTA - The PTA load reached 72.5% (- 0.7%). The 1 - quarter inventory accumulation expectation of PTA is enhanced, and the self - driving force is limited [8]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material rubber latex was 55 Thai baht/kg, and cup rubber was 51.5 Thai baht/kg. As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased [9]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 94200 tons, an increase of 15700 tons. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate was 90.23%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74% [10]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene was 6253 yuan/ton, flat from the previous day. The capacity utilization rate was 74.88%, a decrease of 1.05% from the previous day [11]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1232 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The weekly output was 697100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.08% [12].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 更新时间：2026年01月07日08时19分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹热卷产量回升 ，五大品种总产量环比上升，整体库存继续回落。螺纹表观需求有所下降，热卷的表观需求继续回 升，五大品种表观需求整体方。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且市场整体处于消费淡季，钢厂产量仍有可能延续下降的趋势 。近期煤焦期价大幅反弹， 对盘面成本支撑有所抬升。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，冬储仍需要一段时间才能到来，宏观面信心增强，股市强势上破提振市场信心， 期 价有望维持震荡走势。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约目前没有摆脱近期的震荡区间 。 操作建议： 多单继续持有，中线交易，空仓者不建议追涨杀跌，以震荡思路对待 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3111 | | 7 0.23% | -23 | -0.73% | | 期现货价格 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation", with some varieties having specific ratings such as "oscillation", "oscillation - biased upward", and "oscillation - biased downward" [5] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's emphasis on promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery has led to a warm macro - sentiment. There are still expectations of hot metal复产 and pre - holiday restocking, with iron ore prices remaining strong and coal and coke prices recovering from lows. The fundamentals of steel in the off - season have limited highlights, but cost support is strong, and the futures prices have rebounded from lows. The glass and soda ash futures follow the sector and perform strongly [1] - In the off - season, the fundamentals have limited highlights. Before the Spring Festival, continue to focus on the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and furnace material prices still have the potential to rise from lows, but the upside space is restricted by steel mill profits [5] Summary by Category Iron Element - Iron ore: The port inventory is continuously accumulating, and steel mills' restocking is slow. There is an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. The复产 of hot metal and pre - holiday restocking support the ore price, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel lacks upward momentum, but the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, which supports demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, the coke supply - demand structure may gradually tighten. The space for further spot price cuts is limited, and the futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal [2] - Coking coal: As the year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in futures and spot prices [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand for manganese silicon continues, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price may gradually fall back to the cost valuation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the upstream supply pressure of ferrosilicon has been relieved, and the market's bullish sentiment has increased. The short - term futures price is expected to remain high. However, if the spot price is significantly adjusted upwards due to the influence of futures, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate after profit repair, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear [3] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][4] - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [2] Specific Varieties - Steel: The cost is strong, and the futures price has rebounded from lows. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak. Although the fundamentals of rebar still have resilience and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils still exists, with the resumption of production by steel mills and winter restocking, cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [7][8] - Iron ore: The market sentiment is strong, and the futures and spot prices are rising. The supply side has expectations of disturbances, and the demand side has an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. The port inventory is accumulating, and steel mills' restocking is slow. The ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - Scrap steel: Steel mills' arrivals are at a low level, and the price oscillates. The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, so the price is expected to oscillate [10] - Coke: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures price first weakens and then strengthens. The cost side has stabilized, and the futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal [12][13] - Coking coal: The online auctions show mixed results, and the night - session futures of commodities generally rise. As the year approaches, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and there is upward momentum in prices [14] - Glass: The commodity sentiment has recovered, and the valuation premium has rebounded. The supply has expectations of disturbances, and the inventory is moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [15] - Soda ash: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the sentiment drives the valuation to repair. The supply and demand are in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term and the price center will decline in the long run [17] - Manganese silicon: The upstream supply pressure remains high, and attention should be paid to the guidance of steel tender prices. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the futures price may fall back to the cost valuation in the medium term [18] - Ferrosilicon: The electricity cost in Shaanxi is increasing, and the market's bullish sentiment is rising. The upstream supply pressure has been relieved, but attention should be paid to the potential resurgence of supply pressure [20]

1月6日夜盘，沪镍多合约涨停，沪镍主力合约收涨至147720元／吨，LME镍期价盘中最高涨至18785美 元／吨。 据悉，全球镍市场仍处于供应过剩格局。尽管存在印度尼西亚减产预期，但主要生产国的产能惯性及新 能源汽车电池需求增长不及预期，使得整体供给依然宽松。不锈钢领域的需求受制于房地产等行业景气 度，尚未提供强劲拉动。 库存水平高企，对价格构成持续压制。截至2025年年底，LME镍库存25.4万吨，处于多年高位。中国国 内镍社会库存也同比显著增长。截至2026年1月4日，上期所镍库存为45544吨，高于近5年同期均值。 谈及镍现货市场格局的变化，王维芒认为，市场呈现"预期紧缩"与"现实过剩"并存的复杂局面。受减产 预期和年底部分企业检修影响，现货市场出现结构性紧张，例如2025年年末金川镍现货价格升水一度大 幅拉升至年内高点。供应收紧的预期已开始影响现货定价。 戴梓兆也认为，当前镍供需仍呈小幅过剩状态，经历了2025年10—11月减产后，国内精炼镍的累库速度 放缓，但仍维持累库趋势。数据显示，截至1月5日，全球精炼镍显性库存为31.66万吨，总量处于近5年 来高位。镍铁端，受终端价格的上涨带动，成交价环比上 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals, particularly casting aluminum alloy, is experiencing a collective upward trend, with the main contract opening at 22,490.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 23,060.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.14% [1] - The market for casting aluminum alloy is showing a strong upward trend, supported by high aluminum prices and the implementation of the "Two New" policy in 2026, which has led to a slight increase in scrap aluminum prices, thereby strengthening the cost support for aluminum alloy [2] - Environmental policies and tight raw material supply are putting pressure on production costs, potentially leading to a reduction in output, while demand is weakening due to seasonal factors, resulting in a subdued market for spot transactions [2] Group 2 - The recycled aluminum alloy market is facing weak consumption, with prices rising but downstream die-casting enterprises struggling to accept these increases, leading to a decline in demand [3] - The operating rates of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remain stable, but there is an accumulation of finished product inventory, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [3] - The price of recycled aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term, with a recommendation for cautious trading strategies [3]

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 南美、中东地缘不确定性上升，油价短线反弹。地缘：南美地缘生变，委 内出现权力真空，中东地缘升温，油价短线反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给过 | | 原油 | | 剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变 | | | | 量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端提振，液化气短线走强。沙特上调明年 1 月 CP 合同价，成本端提 | | LPG | | 振，中长期锚定成本端原油，短线有所反弹，大趋势仍向下；供需方面， | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 开工率升至 75%，下游化工需求存在韧 | | | | 性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | | | 短期跟随成本端偏强震荡，弱预期限制反弹高度，关注装置变动节奏。停 | | L | 车比例下滑至 空头反弹 | 11%，LL 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但 ...

甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品种 MA2605 收盘价 | 1月5日 2215 | 12月31日 2216 | 涨跌 -16 | 涨跌幅 -0.05% | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | MA2609 收盘价 | 2172 | 2182 | -10 | -0.46% | | | MA59价差 | 43 | 34 | 9 | 26.47% | | | 太仓基差 | -15 | -15 | 0 | 0.00% | | | MTO05盘面 | -186 | -198 | 12 | -6.06% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 1848 | 1830 | 18 | 0.96% | | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2090 | 2068 | 23 | 1.09% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2210 | 2210 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 363 | 380 | -18 | -4.61% | | | 区域价 ...