1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Before the geopolitical situation eases, the cost support for PX is strong, and there is an expectation of significant de - stocking. Strategy: stage - low long positions and use put options for hedging; go long on the PX9 - 1 spread at a low level; widen the PXN spread when there are signs of geopolitical easing [1]. - PTA: In the second quarter, PTA has limited self - drive, and its absolute price follows the cost. Strategy: stage - low long positions and use put options for hedging; look for high - level reverse spread opportunities for the PTA9 - 1 spread [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: In the second quarter, affected by the Middle East situation, the cost support is strong, and there is a significant de - stocking expectation. Strategy: before the Middle East oil transportation recovers, EG may rise, but beware of pull - backs; lightly buy EG call options [1]. - Short - fiber: In the second quarter, short - fiber has weak self - drive and follows the raw materials. Strategy: the same as PTA for the single - side position; try to widen the spread when the PF processing fee is below 800 [1]. - Bottle - chip: In the second quarter, the supply - demand of bottle - chips is expected to be tight, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. Strategy: the same as PTA for the single - side position; the processing fee of the main contract is expected to be strong; lightly buy PR call options [1]. Urea Industry In March, the urea market showed a trend of rising first and then stabilizing. In April, the supply may decrease slightly in the first half of the month, and the demand will weaken slightly. The price may be firm in the first half of the month and may decline in the second half [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: In March, the price of caustic soda showed a trend of rising after a slight decline. In April, the price increase may be limited [3]. - PVC: In March, the average monthly price of PVC increased. In April, the average monthly price is expected to move up slightly, but the recovery of the real estate market and slow inventory de - stocking may limit the increase [3]. Natural Rubber Industry The supply pressure from the opening of the rubber - tapping season and the support from high overseas costs and geopolitical events will lead to wide - range fluctuations in rubber prices, with an expected operating range of 15,500 - 17,500. Pay attention to the follow - up development of the US - Iran conflict [4]. Methanol Industry The current market is driven by the supply gap caused by the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The methanol fundamentals have improved, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall [5]. Crude Oil Industry The main factors affecting oil prices are geopolitical support and policy suppression. If the situation does not improve, there is still upward momentum in the short - term. In the long - term, pay attention to the impact of high oil prices on inflation, the economy, and energy substitution [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. In the short - term, it may follow the oil price. Strategy: wait and see; narrow the EB05 - BZ05 spread when it is high [10]. - Styrene: The supply - demand is still tight. In the short - term, the absolute price follows the oil price. Strategy: the same as pure benzene [10]. LPG Industry The LPG market is affected by factors such as price changes, inventory, and upstream and downstream operating rates. The overall situation needs to be comprehensively analyzed based on various factors [11]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda Ash: In the second quarter, the price may further decline due to factors such as increased supply and weak demand. Pay attention to the support at around 1150 for SA605 [12]. - Glass: Affected by multiple factors such as weak supply - demand, high inventory, and cost expectations, pay attention to the recovery of demand and inventory de - stocking [12]. Polyolefin Industry The polyolefin market is trading around the logic of "strong cost and reduced supply". The 05 - contract inventory is expected to be low. In April, the supply and cost support will be further strengthened [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On March 27, most downstream polyester product prices and cash flows showed changes, such as a decline in POY, FDY, and DTY prices and cash flows [1]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX, PX spot price, and PX futures prices all increased, and the PX spreads also changed [1]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA spot and futures prices increased, and the PTA basis and spreads changed [1]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG spot and futures prices increased, and the MEG basis and spreads changed. MEG port inventory increased, and the expected arrival decreased [1]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The prices of urea futures contracts changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed [2]. - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of upstream raw materials and downstream products showed different changes, and the regional and inter - market spreads also changed [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and operating rates of urea showed different trends, and the market price showed a trend of rising first and then stabilizing [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda spot and futures changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed [3]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries, as well as the inventory of caustic soda and PVC, changed [3]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of natural rubber increased, and the basis and non - standard price difference changed [4]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of natural rubber contracts changed [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production, operating rates, import and export volumes, and inventory of natural rubber showed different trends [4]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol futures contracts and spot prices increased, and the spreads between contracts and regions changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of methanol enterprises, ports, and the society decreased [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream enterprises of methanol changed [5]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Dubai crude oils changed, and the spreads between contracts and different crude oils also changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oils such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between contracts also changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oils showed different trends [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and raw materials also changed [10]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene spot and futures increased, and the spreads between styrene and pure benzene also changed [10]. - **Downstream Cash Flows and Inventories**: The cash flows of downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, and the inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports also changed [10]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries changed [10]. LPG Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts and spot prices changed, and the spreads between contracts and the basis also changed [11]. - **External Market Prices**: The prices of LPG external market contracts increased [11]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory and operating rates of LPG upstream and downstream changed [11]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass spot and futures changed, and the basis also changed [12]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash spot and futures changed, and the basis also changed [12]. - **Supply, Inventory, and Real Estate Data**: The supply, inventory of glass and soda ash, and real - estate data showed different trends [12]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts increased, and the spreads between contracts also changed [13]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of LLDPE and PP increased, and the basis also changed [13]. - **Non - standard Prices**: The non - standard prices of PE and PP changed [13]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory and operating rates of PE and PP upstream and downstream changed [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices have declined from their highs. After the holiday, the supply - demand situation in the steel industry has seasonally recovered. Supply in the first quarter decreased year - on - year, and production is expected to rise to a high by the end of April. Demand is rising but the peak has not been reached. Domestic demand is expected to decline year - on - year, and exports will remain flat. Although demand has decreased, production has also been cut, and the inventory drawdown rate after the holiday is acceptable. The key is to focus on the height of the recovery in apparent demand. If the hot metal output rises above 2.4 million tons, there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the off - season. Recently, supply and demand are basically balanced, and the price of steel is expected to fluctuate around 3150 for rebar and 3200 for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Geopolitical games, the undetermined BHP - CMMC negotiation, and hot metal复产 are the key trading factors for iron ore. Supply has increased slightly, but Australian shipments may decline in the short term due to a typhoon. Demand has increased slightly, but it is slightly lower than expected. Steel mill profitability has improved. Terminal demand recovery is slow, and domestic demand is weak. Steel exports are uncertain. Inventories at steel mills and ports have decreased slightly. In the short term, the main iron ore contract is expected to oscillate between 780 - 830 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures rose and then fell last week. Spot prices are expected to increase on April 1st. Supply has increased after the Two Sessions, and demand has recovered with the increase in hot metal output. Overall inventory is slightly above the middle level, and supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term. It is recommended to go long on coke 2605 contracts at low prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. Coking coal futures rose last week. Spot prices are rising. Supply has increased as mines resume production, and demand has recovered. Inventories in downstream sectors are increasing. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2605 contracts at low prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1350, and the arbitrage strategy is also to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, production has decreased slightly, and the start - up rate has declined. Factory profits are recovering but vary. Steel demand is rising slightly, and non - steel demand is improving. Exports are weak. Cost is expected to rise. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 5800 - 6200. For silicomanganese, supply has continued to decline, and there is an expected joint production cut in April. Demand is rising slightly. Cost is pushing up the price. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with a reference range of 5700 - 6800 [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have shown various changes, with some prices remaining stable, some decreasing slightly [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices have decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and some production costs have decreased. Profits in different regions and varieties have also changed, with some increasing and some still in the red [1]. Supply - Daily hot metal output has increased by 7.0 to 228.2 tons, a 3.1% increase. Total output of five major steel products has decreased slightly by 0.2 to 839.6 tons, a 0.0% change. Rebar production has decreased by 5.5 to 197.9 tons, a 2.7% decrease, while hot - rolled coil production has increased by 5.4 to 305.6 tons, a 1.8% increase [1]. Inventory - Total inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 48.4 to 1897.8 tons, a 2.5% decrease. Rebar inventory has decreased by 27.5 to 861.9 tons, a 3.1% decrease, and hot - rolled coil inventory has decreased by 8.0 to 453.3 tons, a 1.7% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume has increased by 0.5 to 9.4 tons, a 5.9% increase. Apparent demand for five major steel products has increased by 19.5 to 888.0 tons, a 2.2% increase. Apparent demand for rebar has increased by 17.3 to 225.4 tons, an 8.3% increase, and for hot - rolled coil, it has increased by 3.1 to 313.6 tons, a 1.0% increase [1]. Iron Ore Industry Futures - Warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders have decreased, and basis and spreads have also changed [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port have decreased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume has increased by 56.6 to 2271.6 tons, a 2.6% increase. Global shipments have increased by 95.5 to 3144.3 tons, a 3.1% increase. Monthly national imports have decreased by 2200.9 to 9763.8 tons, an 18.4% decrease [4]. Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills has increased by 2.9 to 231.1 tons, a 1.3% increase. The 45 - port average daily dispatch volume has decreased by 7.8 to 313.2 tons, a 2.4% decrease. Monthly national pig iron and crude steel production have both decreased to 0 [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory has decreased by 98.1 to 17000.31 tons, a 0.6% decrease. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills has decreased by 55.5 to 8978.6 tons, a 0.6% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures and spot prices have shown various changes, with some prices remaining stable and some decreasing slightly. Coking coal prices in some regions have decreased [6]. Supply - Coke production has increased slightly, and coking coal production has decreased slightly [6]. Demand - Hot metal output has increased by 2.9 to 231.1 tons, a 1.3% increase, driving the demand for coke [6]. Inventory - Coke inventory has increased slightly, with different changes in different sectors. Coking coal inventory in downstream sectors has increased [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry Futures and Spot - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures prices have increased, while some spot prices have decreased [7]. Cost and Profit - Production costs in some regions have changed, and production profits have also shown different trends [7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production and start - up rate have decreased, and silicomanganese supply has continued to decline [7]. Demand - Steel demand is rising slightly, and non - steel demand for ferrosilicon is improving [7]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese inventories have decreased slightly [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term tin prices may show a weakening oscillation due to the Middle - East war situation suppressing market risk appetite. However, the medium - to - long - term bullish logic remains. If the conflict shows signs of ending, long positions can be established at low prices [1]. Nickel - The Indonesian export tax news has brought short - term sentiment boost, but the macro - economic outlook is uncertain. The raw material supply is tight, and the inventory digestion is insufficient. The nickel price is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract referring to 134,000 - 142,000 [2]. Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong recently. The news and the tight raw material supply provide support. The steel mill production is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. The price is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with the main contract referring to 14,200 - 14,800 [5]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply disturbance has boosted market sentiment. The fundamental reality has weakened marginally in the short - term but still has resilience. The price is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract referring to 160,000 - 172,000 [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in an over - capacity stage, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. The short - term main contract is expected to run in the range of 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price is supported by supply - side constraints. The domestic market is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle in April, and the core operating range of Shanghai aluminum this week is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price is driven by the cost of electrolytic aluminum. It may show a pattern of weak supply and demand in the second quarter, and the short - term price is expected to run in the range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, following the fluctuation of electrolytic aluminum [11]. Copper - The copper price is in an adjustment phase. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the inventory pressure has weakened. But the price is still suppressed. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged, and there may be opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure at 97,000 - 98,000 [13]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand. The contradiction lies between the mine and smelting ends. The smelting cost supports the zinc price. The downstream may replenish inventory in the peak season, and the export space may be opened. The zinc price is expected to have limited room for further decline, and opportunities for price rebound on the right - hand side can be arranged [15]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has cost support at the bottom and hedging and arbitrage pressure at the top. The supply is expected to increase seasonally in the second quarter, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is expected to oscillate around 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [16]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of oversupply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.17%, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 10%. The import loss decreased by 19.10% [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 and 2605 - 2606 decreased, while those of 2606 - 2607 and 2607 - 2608 increased [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, tin ore imports decreased by 3.69%, SMM refined tin production decreased by 23.91%, and refined tin imports increased by 96.91% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory, social inventory, and SHEF warehouse inventory decreased, while LME inventory remained unchanged [1]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.25%, and the import loss of futures decreased by 23.75% [2]. - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.69%, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte production increased by 11.34% [2]. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.03%, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.95% [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 remained unchanged, 2605 - 2606 increased by 10, and 2606 - 2607 decreased by 80 [2]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 7.45%, and imports increased by 84.63%. SHFE inventory and social inventory increased, while bonded area inventory decreased [2]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged, and the basis remained unchanged [5]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged [5]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 increased by 10, 2605 - 2606 increased by 20, and 2606 - 2607 decreased by 10 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production increased by 44.07%, and stainless steel net exports increased significantly [5]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory and cold - rolled social inventory increased slightly [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.96% and 0.98% respectively. The basis decreased by 1391.43% [7]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 decreased by 1860, 2605 - 2606 decreased by 380, and 2606 - 2607 increased by 380 [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, lithium carbonate production decreased by 15.13%, and demand decreased by 10.57% [7]. - **Inventory**: Total lithium carbonate inventory, downstream inventory, and smelter inventory decreased [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.28%, and the import loss of electrolytic aluminum increased by 286.2 [9]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of AL 2604 - 2605 decreased by 15, AL 2605 - 2606 increased by 5, and AL 2606 - 2607 increased by 15 [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, alumina production decreased by 10.63%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 8.91% [9]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.75%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.52% [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.41%, and the spreads of 2604 - 2605 decreased by 75 [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 41.31%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 30.99% [11]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 12.24% [11]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.01%, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 316.57% [13]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 increased by 50, 2605 - 2606 increased by 40, and 2606 - 2607 decreased by 20 [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.13%, and imports decreased by 24.95% [13]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory, bonded area inventory, and SHFE inventory decreased, while LME inventory increased slightly [13]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 1.62%, and the import loss decreased by 80.83 [15]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 decreased by 20, 2605 - 2606 increased by 5, and 2606 - 2607 increased by 5 [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, refined zinc production decreased by 9.99%, and imports decreased by 81.26% [15]. - **Inventory**: Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 6.24%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.24% [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and the basis increased [16]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of the main contract decreased by 1.26%, and the spreads of the near - month to the first - continuous contract decreased by 30% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, national industrial silicon production decreased by 26.58%, and the export volume decreased by 27.44% [16]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 4.90%, and social inventory increased by 1.27% [16]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type polysilicon products remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis decreased by 3.33% [17]. - **Futures Price and Month - to - Month Spread**: The main contract increased by 0.39%, and the spreads of the near - month to the first - continuous contract decreased by 242.86% [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, polysilicon production decreased by 23.61%, and the export volume increased by 20.51% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 3.49%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.42% [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. Rebar shows a structure of decreasing production and increasing demand, with inventory reduction accelerating further. Hot-rolled coil sees both production and demand increase, and the decline in total inventory slows down slightly, with factory and social inventories decreasing. Currently, the terminal demand for steel is slowly releasing, and the fundamentals are seasonally improving. Traders are actively selling, and the market sentiment is cautious. Low-price transactions are acceptable, while high-price demand is somewhat suppressed. Based on the current cost support, the downside space for steel prices is limited, and they will maintain a range-bound operation. However, attention should be paid to the change in market risk aversion sentiment approaching the Tomb-Sweeping Festival holiday [3] Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - Last week, as news of the easing of the geopolitical situation was released, the prices of raw materials were slightly pressured. At the same time, the replenishment momentum of terminal demand slowed down, and the acceptance of high prices was limited, resulting in a slight price correction [7] - The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions and contracts showed different changes, and the prices of imported iron ore and some coking coal also changed. The inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil decreased [7] 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis Production - Rebar production decreased slightly, with a weekly output of 197.87 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.69% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.00%). The national hot-rolled coil weekly output was 305.61 tons (a week-on-week increase of 1.80% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.90%) [10][13] - Both the blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar decreased. The blast furnace weekly output of rebar was 165.21 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.37% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.13%), and the electric furnace weekly output was 32.66 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 4.25% and a year-on-year increase of 16.39%) [14][17] Operating Rate - Both the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates increased. The national blast furnace operating rate was 81.03% (a week-on-week increase of 1.57% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.13%), and the electric furnace operating rate was 66.82% (a week-on-week increase of 2.89% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.15%) [18][21][23] Profit - The profit of rebar decreased slightly, with a profit of +55 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 4 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 62 yuan/ton). The profit of hot-rolled coil increased slightly, with a profit of +16 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 18 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 77 yuan/ton) [24][26] Demand - The demand for both rebar and hot-rolled coil increased. The apparent consumption of rebar was 225.37 tons (a week-on-week increase of 8.30% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.14%), and the 5-day average of national building materials transactions was 9.45 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.04%). The apparent consumption of hot-rolled coil was 313.63 tons (a week-on-week increase of 1% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.40%) [27][31] Inventory - The inventory of rebar decreased for two consecutive weeks, with the factory and social inventories continuing to decline. The rebar factory inventory was 219.16 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 7.21% and a year-on-year increase of 4.60%), the rebar social inventory was 642.75 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 1.60% and a year-on-year increase of 5.44%), and the total rebar inventory was 861.91 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 3.09% and a year-on-year increase of 5.23%) [32][36] - The decline in hot-rolled coil inventory slowed down, with both the social and factory inventories decreasing. The hot-rolled coil factory inventory was 83.85 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 1.31% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.52%), the hot-rolled coil social inventory was 369.42 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 1.84% and a year-on-year increase of 22.69%), and the total hot-rolled coil inventory was 453.27 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 1.74% and a year-on-year increase of 14.47%) [37][41] Downstream Industries - In the real estate market, the sales of commercial housing improved week-on-week, while the land market transactions decreased week-on-week. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 18.39% week-on-week and decreased by 18.79% year-on-year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 66.04% week-on-week and 62.77% year-on-year [42][44] - In the automotive market, the production and sales of automobiles decreased seasonally in February, with a year-on-year decline. In February 2026, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively. From January to February, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 4.122 million and 4.152 million respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8% respectively [45][47] 03 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar contracted, the basis of hot-rolled coil expanded, and the 5-10 spread of rebar and hot-rolled coil fluctuated within a narrow range. The coil-to-rebar spread fluctuated at a high level, and the 5-9 spread of iron ore contracted [49][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply last week was 78,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease week - on - week, and the demand remained sluggish. The cost support increased during the dry season. The industry is expected to be bearish, and the industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8535 - 8715 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply last week was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase week - on - week, and the March production schedule is predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase month - on - month. The overall demand shows a continuous decline. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 34,630 - 36,730 [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans for production cuts. The main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply but weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 78,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease week - on - week. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is in different states [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9,769.7 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On March 27, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 525 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 560,000 tons, a 1.27% increase week - on - week; the sample enterprise inventory was 191,100 tons, a 3.38% decrease week - on - week; the main port inventory was 134,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease week - on - week, which is bearish [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule increased, remaining at a low level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support increased. The industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8535 - 8715 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase week - on - week. The March production schedule is predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase month - on - month [9]. - Demand: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows different trends in the short and medium - term, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,060 yuan/ton, and the production income is - 310 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On March 27, the price of N - type dense material was 39,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 4,070 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 332,000 tons, a 3.48% decrease week - on - week, at a high level in the same period of history, which is bearish [9]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [9]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule continues to increase. The demand shows a short - term increase and a medium - term callback. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 34,630 - 36,730 [9]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed different degrees of decline or increase compared with the previous values. The spot prices of different types of silicon remained mostly unchanged. The inventory showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed different degrees of change. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable. The inventory decreased, and the export volume increased [16]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends: The report presents the trends of the basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon over a long - term period [18]. - Industrial silicon inventory: It shows the inventory trends of different regions and types of industrial silicon over a long - term period, including delivery warehouses and ports, and sample enterprises [21]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends: It shows the trends of weekly production, monthly production by specification, and the opening rate of sample enterprises in different regions over a long - term period [25]. - Industrial silicon component cost trends: It shows the trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in the main production areas over a long - term period [30]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends: It shows the cost trends of 421 and 553 silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan over a long - term period [33]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables: It shows the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon, including production, consumption, import, and export [37][40]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon: It shows the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and other downstream products of organic silicon over a long - term period [43]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) trends of aluminum alloy over a long - term period [55]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon: It shows the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components over a long - term period [65]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic accessories: It shows the price, import - export, and production trends of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, photovoltaic glass, and high - purity quartz sand over a long - term period [80]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - component cost - profit trends: It shows the cost and profit trends of components such as silicon material, silicon wafer, battery cell, and component in 210mm double - sided double - glass components [83]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic grid - connected power generation: It shows the trends of new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition, and new grid - connected capacity of photovoltaic power stations over a long - term period [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1, the polyolefin and propylene markets generally trended upward in a volatile manner. The ongoing Iran - US conflict led to significant increases in crude oil and LPG prices, providing strong cost support and causing supply to tighten due to widespread plant shutdowns and production cuts. Looking ahead to Q2, the core focus will be on the evolution of the geopolitical situation and its impact on the supply - demand pattern. If the conflict persists, the olefin chain is expected to remain strong; if the situation eases, the decline in prices will be limited. In the long - term, the supply - demand re - balance of polyolefins and propylene needs to be re - evaluated after the supply gradually recovers [1][3]. - The price ranges for Q2 are estimated as follows: L2605 is expected to be between 7,800 - 9,600 yuan/ton, PP2605 between 7,800 - 9,800 yuan/ton, and PL2605 between 7,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Short - term, the three varieties are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see. For monthly arbitrage, consider long 9 - short 1 spreads for L and PP. For inter - variety arbitrage, widen the P - L spread on dips, and there is no clear directional driver for the PP - PL spread [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q1, the polyolefin and propylene markets generally trended upward in a volatile manner. By March 20, the closing price of the plastic main contract rose 36.25%, polypropylene rose 42.08%, and propylene rose 51.50%. The market can be divided into two stages: before the conflict (January 5 - February 27), the three varieties showed an oscillatory recovery; after the conflict (March 2 - present), the prices rose exponentially due to cost support and supply contraction [6][7]. 3.2 Core Concerns 3.2.1 Refinery Production Cuts and Polyolefin Supply Reduction - Due to the conflict, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, and the oil and gas fields in the Middle East reduced production. Refineries reduced production defensively, leading to a significant reduction in polyolefin supply in March - April. The PE plant operating rate dropped from 87.95% to 80.07%, and the weekly output decreased by 8.97%. The PP plant operating rate dropped from 75.49% to 70.50%, and the weekly output decreased by 6.61%. If the conflict persists, the polyolefin plant maintenance losses will further increase in April [15]. 3.2.2 Threat to PDH Plant Raw Material Supply - The PDH plant has been significantly affected by the geopolitical conflict. Before the war, the PDH plant operating rate had dropped to around 65%. After the conflict, the LPG price soared, further compressing the PDH plant profit. If the conflict persists, PDH plants may shut down, driving up the prices of PP and propylene. If the situation eases, the PDH plant operating rate is expected to remain low in the short term [20]. 3.2.3 Direct Impact on PE Imports - China's PE imports are directly affected by the conflict. About 40% of PE imports come from the Middle East. It is estimated that the PE import volume will decrease by about 20 - 25 tons per month in March - April. Non - standard products' import reduction is expected to be more obvious, and attention should be paid to the HDPE - LLDPE price spread [22]. 3.2.4 Tightening of Asian Olefin Supply - The conflict has led to a shortage of crude oil and naphtha supply in Asia, causing overseas refineries to cut production. Ethylene and propylene prices have risen significantly. The export profit of polyolefins has increased, and export orders have increased, with some demand from Southeast Asia shifting to China [26]. 3.2.5 Negative Feedback on the Demand Side - As polyolefin prices rise, the demand side shows negative feedback. The downstream's willingness to accept high - price goods is limited, and the spot trading volume has decreased, with the basis weakening significantly. If the conflict persists, downstream enterprises will pass on cost pressure; if the situation eases, downstream replenishment will support prices [29][30]. 3.3 Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.3.1 Valuation Feedback - **PE Valuation**: The cost of PE has increased significantly due to the conflict. From March 2 to March 20, the comprehensive cost of PE rose 23.48%. The oil - based process profit decreased significantly, while the coal - based and ethane - based process profits improved. The current PE valuation is mainly supported by the strong crude oil price [47]. - **PP Valuation**: The cost of PP has also increased, with the comprehensive cost rising 31.61% from March 2 to March 20. The coal - based process profit expanded significantly, while the oil - based, PDH, and propylene - purchased process profits were compressed, providing strong support for the PP price [55]. - **Propylene Valuation**: The core valuation of propylene is based on PDH plants. Currently, the PDH plant profit is extremely compressed, and the support for propylene is strong. The PP - PL spread has narrowed to a historical low [67][68]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - **PE Supply - Demand**: Supply has decreased significantly due to plant shutdowns and import reduction. Exports have increased. Although the current inventory is at a neutral level, it is expected to show a de - stocking trend in Q2. The demand side shows negative feedback, but the impact on prices is limited due to supply tightening [70][71][72]. - **PP Supply - Demand**: Supply has decreased due to refinery production cuts, PDH plant issues, and poor profit of propylene - purchased PP. Imports may decrease, and exports have increased. The demand side shows some resilience, and the inventory is expected to remain low in Q2 [78][79]. - **Propylene Supply - Demand**: The PDH plant operating rate is expected to decline in April, reducing propylene supply. The demand for propylene has also decreased, but the supply reduction expectation still provides support [84][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, which has a significant impact on various industries and commodities. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own fundamentals and external factors [9][12]. - In the short - term, the market is volatile, and investment strategies need to be adjusted according to the specific situation of each commodity, such as short - term holding, waiting for opportunities to enter the market, or hedging operations [12][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are intensifying. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthi rebels have launched military operations. The US is considering sending troops to the Middle East, and there are also negotiations between the US and Iran [9]. - China's economic data shows positive trends. From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the profit of high - tech manufacturing increased by 58.7% [9]. - The Chinese government is promoting the development of the service industry and strengthening financial risk prevention and control [9]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to wait and see due to the situation in the US - Iran conflict and focus on the capital's ability to support the market. The A - share market is oscillating upwards, with some sectors performing well, but the market turnover has reached a new low this year [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The situation in Iran may still have variables. Differentiate the impact of capital and fundamentals on bonds and maintain a steep thinking strategy. The money market is balanced and loose, and the economic data is positive. Pay attention to the PMI data this month and the possibility of the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut [13]. 3.3 Black 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - The demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for rolled products has declined in some downstream industries, but the export and the orders of steel mills are acceptable. The supply of steel mills is increasing slightly, and the cost of raw materials is strongly supported. The short - term market is in a volatile state, and the strategy is to hold the sold wide - straddle options and wait for opportunities to short at high prices [15][16]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips. The price increase is mainly due to the energy substitution logic caused by geopolitical conflicts. Although the supply is sufficient, the market sentiment is high, but there is a risk of price decline if the sentiment premium fades [17]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The possibility of manganese - silicon production cuts in April is high, but the endogenous motivation for production cuts is insufficient. It is recommended to short after the price rises. Silicon - iron may rise further due to the sentiment of manganese - silicon, but the view of shorting at high prices remains unchanged [18]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see. For glass, it is recommended to try to buy on dips for far - month contracts. The short - term price fluctuations are affected by geopolitical conflicts and energy prices. The supply of soda ash is slightly reduced due to short - term maintenance, and the cold - repair expectation of glass production lines is increasing [19]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Copper - The short - term copper price will oscillate widely. The Middle East situation has signs of easing but still has high uncertainty, and the accelerating inventory depletion provides some support for copper prices [21]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is affected by the disturbance of the ore end, and the sentiment is strong. It is a variety with a strong fundamental and solid logic in the non - ferrous sector. There is an opportunity to buy on dips [23]. 3.4.3 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon continues to oscillate without obvious supply - demand drivers, and it is advisable to operate within a range and sell wide - straddle options. Polysilicon is in a weak oscillation, and caution is required in operation [25]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The price of Zhengzhou cotton oscillates at a high level due to the impact of external conflicts and the repair of the internal - external price difference. The overall cotton market is affected by the surrounding market and the macro - environment. Pay attention to the geopolitical impact on the crude oil market and the USDA cotton planting report [28]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The sugar price oscillates and rebounds due to the supply pressure and the increase in import costs. The global sugar supply surplus is shrinking, and the domestic sugar price is supported by the inverted import profit [30]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the egg price increase slows down, and the market still has an upward expectation, but the inventory is high, and the futures market maintains a bearish view [33]. 3.5.4 Apples - The high - quality apple supply is tight, and the market will continue to be strong in the short term. Pay attention to the出库 progress in the producing areas and the sales situation in the sales areas [34]. 3.5.5 Pigs - For futures, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term. The spot market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but the live - stock inventory is expected to decline [35]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, and the supply risk is increasing. The market is concerned about the resumption of navigation in the strait. The price of crude oil has risen [35]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The domestic fuel oil will follow the oil price and oscillate at a high level. The key is the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [37]. 3.6.3 Plastics - The price of polyolefins is slightly supported by the unstable situation in the Middle East. The upstream production cuts are expanding, and the short - term trend is strong, but the long - term trend depends on the end of the war [38]. 3.6.4 Rubber - The domestic rubber in Yunnan is starting to be harvested, and the raw materials are increasing. Although it is affected by synthetic rubber and is slightly strong, it is necessary to be cautious in unilateral chasing. Hold the strategy of narrowing the RU - NR spread [40]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - The current price is mainly driven by the cost and may still have room to rise. It is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the energy price fluctuations and the war situation [41]. 3.6.6 Methanol - The actual supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still uncertain. It is recommended to have a bullish view in the short term. Pay attention to the supply and transportation of methanol in Iran [42]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is affected by multiple factors. It is advisable to maintain an intraday wide - range oscillation strategy. Pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict [43]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - The asphalt price follows the oil price. The demand is in the off - season, and the supply is expected to decrease rapidly [44]. 3.6.9 PVC - The previous rise of PVC was due to the increase in ethylene - based costs caused by the Iran war. The actual production cuts are less than expected, and there is a risk of a callback. It is advisable to be cautious [45]. 3.6.10 Polyester Industry Chain - The cost of the polyester industry chain is supported by the high - level oil price, and the supply is shrinking, but the downstream negative feedback is emerging. It is advisable to take profit on previous long positions [46]. 3.6.11 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price of LPG has risen significantly due to the US - Iran war. It is expected to maintain a high - level and high - volatility state, and investors should be cautious [47]. 3.6.12 Pulp - The port inventory of pulp is increasing, the import cost is falling, and the market is in a multi - empty game. Pay attention to the inventory situation and the price increase of finished products [48]. 3.6.13 Logs - The supply of logs is expected to decrease in the short term, and the price may rise steadily. Pay attention to the downstream demand and the port arrival volume [50]. 3.6.14 Urea - For the far - month contracts, pay attention to the cost increase and the rise of agricultural product prices. For the near - month contracts, follow the policy. The spot market is in a tight balance [51].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not specified [1] - Aluminum: Not specified [1] - Alumina: Not specified [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not specified [1] - Zinc: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: Not specified [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not specified [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not specified [1] - Polysilicon: Not specified [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as inventory, market sentiment, supply and demand, and policies, showing different trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Friday's Shanghai copper warehouse receipt fluctuated with a relatively narrow amplitude in the past two days. The current copper price was basically flat at 95,320 yuan. Shanghai had a discount of 95 yuan, and the premium in Guangdong expanded to 100 yuan. The refined - scrap price difference continued to widen. Technically, the strong short - term support for copper price was at 91,000 yuan, and the strength - weakness boundary was at 96,500 yuan [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China were 90 yuan, 150 yuan, and 175 yuan respectively. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 15,000 tons on Thursday compared with Monday. The market sentiment fluctuated with war information, and the risk was not eliminated. Shanghai aluminum mainly fluctuated. Cast aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price. The domestic alumina operating capacity was temporarily stable, but the over - supply prospect remained. Short - term alumina fluctuated waiting for the clarity of Guinea's mining policy [2] Zinc - The SMM zinc social inventory decreased by 17,000 tons to 249,500 tons. With price cuts to reduce inventory and the expectation of the peak season, holders held up prices, and the spot premium remained stable. Shanghai zinc rebounded after stabilizing at the annual line. Due to environmental protection in some northern regions, downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement. After the zinc price rebounded, spot sales were mediocre. The macro - sentiment was still volatile. Shanghai zinc was expected to return to fundamental trading, and the peak - season inventory reduction should be continuously tracked, with the disk likely to enter a low - volatility consolidation [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated, market trading declined, and positions slowly increased. The strong US dollar put pressure on the market. The demand for stainless steel in the peak season was lower than expected, and downstream only made rigid restocking, with light trading. Due to macro - uncertainties, the futures market fluctuated weakly and could not drive the spot market. Although the social inventory decreased slightly, it was still at a high level, and inventory reduction was slow. Steel mills maintained high production schedules, resulting in high supply pressure. The rebound in upstream prices continued to push up the mid - stream prices and provided cost support. In the short term, it was still dominated by policy sentiment. With high inventories of nickel and stainless steel, attention should be paid to further changes in Indonesian policies, and the overall trend was a weak fluctuation [6] Tin - Shanghai tin increased its positions, and the intraday upward trend broke through 350,000 yuan, with the short - term price breaking upward. There was no specific news in the tin market, and the price volatility was related to the performance of equity assets. Funds tentatively went long. The uncertainty in the Middle East situation was still high, and the gap in the agreement direction between the two sides was large. Short - term attention should be paid to whether an actual cease - fire occurs. Patience and waiting were recommended [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate fluctuated strongly, and market trading was active. The macro - environment provided a strong time window, and the market was concerned about the supply shock from Zimbabwe. The overall inventory reduction speed in the market slowed down, and the change in the inventory structure was worthy of attention. The decline in smelter inventory slowed down, and the confidence of traders in hoarding goods wavered, and they began to sell to downstream. In terms of production, the production of lithium carbonate returned to a high level in early March, with weekly production hitting new highs. Waiting for the inventory inflection point. The latest quotation of Australian ore was 2,

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic polyethylene spot price increased overall, with a weekly fluctuation range of 274 - 408 yuan/ton. Due to frequent switching of news and the tense Middle - East situation, the price is in a high - level oscillation. The core contradiction lies in the game between "cost support brought by geopolitics" and "weak spot demand and inventory pressure". In the short term, the plastic futures are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend, but the amplitude will still be large. The demand improvement space is limited [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - This week, the domestic polyethylene spot price rose overall, with a weekly fluctuation of 274 - 408 yuan/ton. The HDPE film was reported at 9186 yuan/ton, up 367 yuan/ton from last week; the LDPE film was 10984 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton; the LLDPE film was 9070 yuan/ton, up 316 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - This week, the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 76.24%, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous period. The domestic polyethylene supply decreased to 63.23 tons, a decrease of 3.17 tons from the previous period, mainly due to some device overhauls and tightened raw material supply. Next period, the overall production is expected to increase as some devices plan to restart while some new devices plan to be overhauled [3]. Downstream Demand - This week, the overall downstream industry's starting rate was 39.75%, an increase of 2.16% from last week. Although the demand showed a marginal improvement, it was still at a low level. The starting rate of PE packaging film and agricultural film increased, but the demand was still restricted. The demand of the packaging industry increased slightly by 3%, while that of the home appliance industry decreased by 2%, showing obvious demand differentiation [4]. Factors Affecting the Market Positive Factors - Geopolitical situation supports costs: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict has not eased, and the confrontation between the US and Iran has led to a sharp rise in international crude oil prices, pushing up the cost curve of oil - based chemical products [5]. - Supply contraction expectation: Some domestic PE devices are under overhaul, and the supply is reduced due to production cuts in Middle - East oil fields and import obstacles, which supports the futures price [5]. - Marginal improvement in downstream demand: The starting rate of downstream industries has increased, and the replenishment willingness of downstream enterprises has risen during the decline of the futures price, which supports the price [5]. Negative Factors - Macroeconomic sentiment disturbance: The sharp rise in US bond yields has cooled the global risk appetite. The geopolitical news is full of long - short games, causing the plastic futures to fluctuate sharply and the previous gains to be partially reversed [5]. - Weak spot demand: Although the downstream starting rate has increased, the high - price raw materials have inhibited the downstream purchasing willingness, and the spot trading has been weak [5]. - Inventory pressure: The overall inventory level is moderately high, the LLDPE inventory has not shown obvious destocking, and the inventory destocking pressure still exists [5]. Market Outlook - In the short term, due to the high uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the continued supply contraction in China until April, the plastic futures are difficult to fall back to the pre - event level and are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend. If the Middle - East situation eases, the previous risk premium will gradually be reversed. The downstream demand is expected to improve as the industry enters the peak season, but the inhibitory effect of high - price raw materials on demand needs attention [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillation [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillation [2][3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [4][5] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [6] Core Views - Steel: The market sentiment is poor, and steel prices maintain an oscillatory trend. The current price fluctuations mainly depend on raw material prices, and the cost support from steel mills is strong [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price shows relative strength in the short - term, but in the long - term, a large release of liquidity may cause the price to fall. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and negotiation progress [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the prices are oscillating. The coke market is supported by coking coal costs, and attention should be paid to international situations, energy prices, and seasonal demand for finished products [4][5]. - Thermal Coal: The demand is stable, and the coal price in the production area is running strongly. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3128 yuan/ton and 3305 yuan/ton respectively. The spot trading is generally weak, with low - price trading being acceptable. The overall basis has slightly expanded, and the national building materials trading volume is 89110 tons [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply - demand of building materials has seasonally improved, and the inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing. The production and sales of plates have significantly improved, but the inventory is still at a high level, suppressing the price. The price fluctuations mainly depend on raw material prices, and the cost support from steel mills is strong due to rising energy prices [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is oscillatory, and no strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The futures price of iron ore has slightly rebounded. The spot trading volume at the main ports has decreased by 19.33% to 68.97 tons, while the trading volume of forward - looking spot has increased by 96.15% to 51 tons [2]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The arrival volume at 47 ports and 45 ports has slightly increased. The blast furnaces are being restarted as planned, and the molten iron output is rising. The port inventory is still at a historical high. In the short - term, the iron ore price is relatively strong, but in the long - term, a large release of liquidity may cause the price to fall [2]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is oscillatory, and no strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the coking coal and coke futures are oscillating. The coke spot market is supported by coking coal costs, but the terminal's high - price acceptance is weak, and the trading at the port has weakened. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is stable at around 1160 - 1170 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: After the Two Sessions, coal mines in the production area are resuming production steadily. The import of seaborne coal is tight due to the inverted price difference. The profit of coke by - products has increased, and the coke profit is at a good level. Attention should be paid to international situations, energy prices, and seasonal demand for finished products [4][5]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke trading are oscillatory, and no strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: The coal price in the main production areas is running strongly. The demand from metallurgy and chemical industries is good, and the price at the port and for external purchases has increased. The coal mine inventory is low, and the market sentiment is positive. The port market is also strong, with increased non - power demand and high arrival costs. The import coal market is also strong, with high costs [6]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The downstream demand is good, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [6]. - Strategy: No strategy is provided [6].