"考虑到本月央行还开展了5000亿元买断式逆回购净投放，11月中期流动性净投放总额达到6000亿元，连续四个月处于6000亿元的年内较高水平。"王青表 示，主要原因有以下三点： 一是10月安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限额，用于化解存量债务及扩大有效投资，这意味着年底前会加发5000亿元地方债，11月政府债券净融资规模会 有明显上升；二是10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕，在带动当月委托贷款走高后，接下来还会带动配套中长期贷款较快投放；三是11月银行同 业存单到期量也有明显增加。以上都会在一定程度上收紧银行体系流动性，需要央行给予流动性支持。 "着眼于应对潜在的流动性收紧态势，央行通过MLF和买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，有助于保持资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。这能助力 政府债券发行，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度。"王青表示，当前央行加量续作MLF，持续较大规模向银行体系注入中期流动性，释放了数量型政 策工具持续加力的信号，显示货币政策延续支持性立场，有助于稳增长、稳预期。 招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼表示，11月、12月是全年工作收官的关键时段。在岁末年初之际，央 ...

（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，Arthur Hayes 发推表示，美联储量化紧缩预计将于 12 月 1 日停止，美国银行 11 月贷款有所 增加，流动性出现小幅改善。他认为比特币将在 9 万美元下方震荡，或再探低至 8 万美元出头，但预计 8 万美元将企稳。他称可能开始小幅加仓，但真正的大规模操作将留到明年。 来源：市场资讯 ...

为保持银行体系流动性充裕，中国人民银行11月24日发布预告称，将在25日以固定数量、利率招标、多重 价位中标方式开展1万亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，期限为1年期。鉴于11月有9000亿元MLF到期，当 月央行MLF净投放规模将达到1000亿元，为央行连续第九个月对MLF加量续作。 END 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青向证券时报记者指出，11月MLF加量续作是着眼于应对潜在的流动性收紧态 势。10月财政部安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限额，意味着11月政府债券净融规模会有明显上升。同时， 10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕，在带动当月委托贷款走高后，接下来还会带动配套中长期贷款 较快投放。此外，11月银行同业存单到期量也有明显增加。上述因素都会在一定程度上收紧银行体系流动 性，需要央行给予流动性支持。 公开市场国债买卖操作、公开市场买断式逆回购操作以及MLF操作是在央行每日根据一级交易商需求连续开 展7天期逆回购操作的基础上，额外投放的中长期资金。11月以来，央行两度开展公开市场买断式逆回购操 作，累计净投放5000亿元。综合来看，MLF与买断式逆回购两项政策工具在11月合计释放中期流动性6000 ...

为保持银行体系流动性充裕，中国人民银行11月24日发布预告称，将在25日以固定数量、利率招标、多 重价位中标方式开展1万亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，期限为1年期。鉴于11月有9000亿元MLF到 期，当月央行MLF净投放规模将达到1000亿元，为央行连续第九个月对MLF加量续作。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青向券商中国记者指出，11月MLF加量续作是着眼于应对潜在的流动性收 紧态势。10月财政部安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限额，意味着11月政府债券净融资规模会有明显上 升。同时，10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕，在带动当月委托贷款走高后，接下来还会带动 配套中长期贷款较快投放。此外，11月银行同业存单到期量也有明显增加。上述因素都会在一定程度上 收紧银行体系流动性，需要央行给予流动性支持。 公开市场国债买卖操作、公开市场买断式逆回购操作以及MLF操作是在央行每日根据一级交易商需求 连续开展7天期逆回购操作的基础上，额外投放的中长期资金。11月以来，央行两度开展公开市场买断 式逆回购操作，累计净投放5000亿元。综合来看，MLF与买断式逆回购两项政策工具在11月合计释放 中期流动性6000亿元 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1 trillion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF issuance [1][2] - The MLF net injection of 100 billion yuan in November is in response to potential liquidity tightening due to the maturity of 900 billion yuan in MLF and increased government bond financing [1][2] - The PBOC's recent operations, including MLF and reverse repos, have collectively released 600 billion yuan in medium-term liquidity, maintaining a stable monetary policy stance [2][3] Group 2 - Since March, the MLF has adopted a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding method, enhancing the ability of financial institutions to meet diverse funding needs [2] - The MLF operation's bidding mechanism has been improved to allow institutions to better prepare for liquidity arrangements, with a focus on providing stable expectations for financial institutions [2][3] - The PBOC is expected to continue using both reverse repos and MLF to inject medium-term liquidity into the market, supporting economic stability and expectations [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 海外扰动加剧，股指大幅调整 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-11-24 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 素 | | | | 经济和企 | 偏空 | 10月经济数据显示，基本面继续呈现走弱态势，投资增速与房地产价格加速下滑。具体来看，1-10月固定资产投资累计同比下降1.7%，增速较9 月回落1.2个百分点。从投资结构分析，房地产投资累计同比下降14.7%，降幅较上期扩大0.8个百分点；基建投资累计同比增长1.51%，增速回 | | 业盈利 | | 落1.83个百分点；制造业投资累计同比增幅为2.7%，较前值下降1.3个百分点。值得注意的是，通胀出现小幅回升，10月CPI同比增速转正至 | | | | 0.2%，环比亦小幅上升0.1个百分点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among brokerage strategy analysts indicates a rebound in the market, as multiple factors that led to last week's stock index adjustments have improved over the weekend [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market's perception of the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts has shifted significantly, with the probability of a rate cut in December rising from 30% to 71%, alleviating global risk aversion [1] - The expectation of liquidity improvement and the ongoing iteration of global AI applications are likely to ease concerns regarding an "AI bubble" [2] - The internal logic supporting the rise of Chinese assets remains strong, driven by enhanced national competitiveness, the release of new economic momentum, clear policy transformation, and stable economic fundamentals [2][3] Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors that are expected to outperform in the coming year, particularly those benefiting from high growth forecasts, such as AI, advanced manufacturing, and structural recovery in domestic demand [3] - The approval of 16 technology ETFs, including those focused on AI, is expected to guide capital towards high-quality technology companies in the A-share market, providing a positive regulatory signal [2][3] - The technology sector's recent adjustments are attributed to the influence of U.S. AI leaders and year-end institutional fund strategies, but the overall tech market is expected to continue its upward trajectory post-correction [2][4] Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - The current market adjustments are viewed as short-term disturbances that do not alter the underlying bull market logic, with expectations of continued capital inflow and improved earnings across sectors [3][4] - The potential for a significant reversal in the fundamentals of the AI industry in the U.S. is considered low, which should provide substantial valuation growth opportunities for comparable companies in China [4] - The overall sentiment indicates that the market is not lacking in liquidity, and the concerns regarding long-tail risks in the Chinese economy are gradually easing [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals industry, indicating an upward cycle despite liquidity disturbances [2][3]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve's indecisiveness regarding interest rate cuts and changing market sentiment towards AI narratives have led to fluctuations in base metal prices. However, the fundamentals for energy metals remain strong, with prices trending upwards [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - Market sentiment is affected by volatility in risk assets and central banks reducing gold reserves. The Federal Reserve's mixed economic assessments and fluctuating expectations for a December rate cut dominate the market [5][7]. - Gold prices as of November 21: SHFE gold decreased by 3.36% to 926.94 CNY/g, while COMEX gold fell by 0.77% to 4062.80 USD/oz [7][25]. - China's gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces to 7,409 million ounces as of the end of October, marking 12 consecutive months of growth [7]. 2. Copper - Copper prices are under pressure due to fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts. As of November 21, SHFE copper decreased by 1.43% to 85,660 CNY/ton, and LME copper fell by 0.69% to 10,777.5 USD/ton [10][22]. - The supply side is impacted by an accident in the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand remains strong, particularly from AI data centers and power grids [10][22]. 3. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing high volatility due to macroeconomic expectations. As of November 21, SHFE aluminum decreased by 2.29% to 21,340 CNY/ton, and LME aluminum fell by 2.54% to 2,786 USD/ton [9][22]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply remains stable, while overseas supply concerns persist. The processing operating rate is steady at 62% [9][22]. 4. Energy Metals - The lithium sector shows strong demand, with lithium prices trending upwards. As of last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,100 tons, up by 585 tons, while inventory decreased by 2,052 tons [11]. - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight upstream raw material supply, while demand from the downstream sector is cautious [11]. 5. Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium have slightly increased before retreating, with no significant changes in the fundamentals. As of November 21, prices were 549,000 CNY/ton for praseodymium and neodymium, and 1,485,000 CNY/ton for dysprosium [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the US stock market is primarily driven by tightening overseas liquidity, declining market risk appetite, and significant concerns regarding the extent of AI bubble [1][2][3] Group 1: US Market Conditions - The tightening of overseas liquidity is attributed to hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve and strong employment and inflation data, which have dampened expectations for interest rate cuts in December [2] - Market risk appetite has decreased due to warnings from Federal Reserve officials about risks in the private credit sector and adjustments in the cryptocurrency market, leading to increased selling pressure [2] - There is considerable disagreement among market participants regarding the degree of AI bubble, with some institutional investors taking profits [2] Group 2: Valuation and Financial Pressure - The current valuation levels indicate that the S&P 500's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is at a high range, nearing the peak levels seen during the tech bubble, while the Nasdaq index's P/E ratio, although high, is still significantly below those peak levels [2] - The concentration of market capitalization among leading tech companies is high, with many having P/E ratios at elevated levels and financial pressures approaching those seen during the tech bubble, leading to increased debt financing and uncertainty regarding buybacks and dividends [2] - The core factors influencing the magnitude and duration of overseas market volatility are identified as monetary policy and inflation, rather than earnings [2][3] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - Given that A-share valuations are significantly lower than those of US stocks and the diminishing influence of foreign capital, the impact of US market weakness on A-shares is expected to gradually decrease [1][3] - There are opportunities for A-shares to rise due to potential positive changes in policies or funding towards the end of the year and into early next year [1][3]

证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 22 日 下周（11月 24-28日）进入跨月周，资金面风浪依旧未平。周一（24日）起， 拆借 7 天利率可跨月。参考今年二季度以来季中月（5 月、8 月）资金利率在跨月周 的变化情况，R007 最大上行幅度分别为 11、8bp，而 R001 多在跨月当日显著上 行，幅度在 5-10bp。 与此同时，下周公开市场还面临 2.58万亿元到期，单周到期规模仅次于国庆后 一周的 2.66 万亿元。其次，政府债缴款规模可能依然不低。根据已披露的发行计 划，下周缴款额预计为 2337亿元。不过，下周三（26日）还将有国债 2个月、3个 月期贴现国债计划发行，实际缴款压力将更大，根据我们估算，实际缴款规模或仍 在 3000 亿以上，约为 3087 亿元左右。 因此，对于接下来的跨月周，地方债发行缴款以及MLF续作情况将是两个关键 变量。不过，考虑到三季度基本面压力显现，央行宽货币态度延续，下周央行或同 步加大短期逆回购资金投放，缓解资金压力，预计跨月期间隔夜、7 天资金成本高 点或在 1.60%附近。 ►公开市场：11 月 24-28 日，逆回 ...