Market Overview - The price of pure benzene has slightly increased as of November 13, driven by stable to strong raw material prices and reduced production at the US Gulf Coast disproportionation units, alongside favorable demand for oil blending [1] - Market sentiment has improved, leading to price increases in both benzene and styrene, although there is caution due to rising port inventories in China and expectations of continued high arrivals [1] Supply and Demand - As of November 6, the production of petroleum benzene reached 437,800 tons, with an operating rate of 75.14%, reflecting an increase of 8,900 tons and 1.04% respectively [2] - The restart of several facilities, including Dalian Fuxia's aromatics unit and Shenghong Refining's reforming unit, has contributed to the supply dynamics, while some facilities are undergoing maintenance [2] - The total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports was 113,000 tons as of November 10, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous period [2] - The operating rates for downstream products as of November 6 showed a mixed trend, with styrene at 66.94% (+0.2%), phenol at 75.31% (-2.7%), caprolactam at 86.06% (unchanged), and aniline at 77.74% (-0.8%) [2] Market Outlook - The recent introduction of new production capacity and the restart of facilities, along with maintenance expectations, suggest that the overall supply of pure benzene may remain ample [3] - Demand is limited due to some loss-making downstream products anticipating production cuts to maintain prices, leading to overall weak support from the demand side [3] - Although there is an expectation of a certain volume of imports arriving in November and December, the impact of the US-Asia arbitrage window and oil blending on market sentiment remains uncertain [3] - The outlook for crude oil supply and demand is weak, limiting cost support and potential for price rebounds, with attention needed on facility operational changes [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Bullish, and the market trend is emerging) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] Report's Core View - The overall supply in the chemical market is relatively loose, and the demand shows a mixed trend. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, overseas market trends, and seasonal demand changes, and their prices and market trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The overall supply was loose, and the transaction was average. The demand for propylene had some support due to the resumption of some devices [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures closed slightly higher. The supply of polyethylene was stable, but the demand was weakening. The spot of polypropylene showed signs of stabilizing [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rose strongly in the morning and then fell in the afternoon. The overseas gasoline trend was strong, but the rebound height should be viewed with caution due to weak downstream profits [3] - The main contract of styrene futures closed significantly higher. The overseas market was strong, but the future supply was expected to increase [3] Polyester - Affected by aromatics blending for gasoline, the prices of PX and PTA rebounded. However, considering the weakening chemical demand and uncertain US demand, a cautious bullish view was taken [5] - The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, with supply growth pressure. A bearish view was maintained in the medium - term [5] - Short fiber had no new investment pressure, but demand was expected to weaken. Bottle chip demand declined, and over - capacity was a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The main contract of methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. The port was accumulating inventory, and the short - term was under pressure, but the valuation was low [6] - The urea market was supported by the rumor of export quota release, and the short - term was expected to fluctuate in a range with a slightly upward price center [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuated within a narrow range. The cancellation of India's BIS certification had little impact, and the market was in a state of high supply and low demand [7] - Caustic soda showed a weak trend due to high supply pressure and insufficient downstream demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash showed a strong trend. The cost increased, and the short - term price was difficult to fall, but there was an oversupply situation in the long - term [8] - Glass fluctuated within a narrow range. The mid - stream inventory was high, and the price increase was weak, but the decline space was also limited [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bullish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For most energy and chemical products, the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, oil price trends, and inventory levels. Some products face supply - side pressure and bearish trends, while others show short - term improvements but still have uncertainties [2][4][7] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Core view: Cautiously bearish. The core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the upward pressure on oil prices is significant. OPEC+ is still in the production - expansion cycle, and the supply - surplus pressure is rising [2] - Basic logic: OPEC+ plans to expand production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in early next year. The consumption off - season has begun, and the supply - surplus pressure is increasing. The US crude oil inventory increased by 5.2 million barrels to 421.2 million barrels in the week ending October 31 [10] - Strategy: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of [455 - 465] for SC [11] LPG - Core view: Cautiously bearish. It follows the weakening of the cost - end oil price [2] - Basic logic: The cost - end is bearish due to factors such as the US sanctions on Russia and Saudi Arabia's reduction of the CP contract price. The supply has decreased slightly, and the downstream chemical operating rate has increased. The port and factory inventories have both declined [16] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [17] L - Core view: Bearish continuation. The enterprise inventory pressure increases [2] - Basic logic: The spot and futures are still bottom - seeking. The enterprise inventory has reached a high level in the same period, and the cost support has weakened. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the downstream demand for replenishment is insufficient [21] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [6700 - 6850] for L [21] PP - Core view: Bearish continuation. The inventory pressure in the industrial chain is high [2] - Basic logic: The fundamentals remain weak, following the weakening of oil prices and propylene. The upstream and mid - stream inventories are at a high level in the same period, and the de - stocking pressure is high [25] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [6400 - 6550] for PP [25] PVC - Core view: Bearish continuation. The trading volume reaches a new high [2] - Basic logic: The trading volume reaches a new high, and attention should be paid to capital dynamics. The basis is strengthening, and the warehouse receipts are slowly decreasing from a high level. The upstream and mid - stream inventories are at a high level in the same period, but the low valuation provides support [29] - Strategy: The industry should conduct hedging at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. Pay attention to the range of [4550 - 4700] for PVC [29] PX - Core view: Cautiously bullish. The short - term supply - demand situation is improved, but the oil price is under pressure [31] - Basic logic: The supply - side domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high this year. The crude oil supply - demand pattern remains loose [30] - Strategy: Close short positions at low valuations. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [6705 - 6810] for PX [31] PTA - Core view: Cautiously bullish. The supply - demand situation is slightly improved, but the oil price is under pressure [32] - Basic logic: The processing fee is low. The later device maintenance efforts are expected to increase, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. The downstream demand has improved, but the order stability needs to be observed. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in November - December [33] - Strategy: Focus on expanding the processing fee spread (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [4620 - 4695] for TA [34] MEG - Core view: Cautiously bearish. The valuation is low, but the oil price is under pressure [35] - Basic logic: The domestic device maintenance has increased, and the operating load has declined. New device production and the recovery of maintenance devices will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand has improved but is expected to weaken. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in November [36] - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3880 - 3960] for EG [37] Methanol - Core view: Cautiously bearish. The fundamentals remain weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory de - stocking inflection point [38] - Basic logic: High inventory suppresses the rebound of the spot price. The supply - side domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. The demand performance is average, and the cost support is weak and stable [40] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully. Pay attention to the MA1 - 5 reverse spread [4] Urea - Core view: Cautiously bullish. Exports are short - term positive, but the fundamentals remain weak [43] - Basic logic: The spot price of small - particle urea is rising, and the negative basis is slightly weakening. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The factory inventory is accumulating and at a high level in the same period. Exports have maintained a high growth rate since July [44] - Strategy: Be vigilant against the risk of the futures price falling after rising. Consider going long lightly at low prices for far - month contracts. Pay attention to the range of [1640 - 1680] for UR [45] Natural Gas - Core view: Cautiously bullish. The gas price is likely to rise due to the consumption peak season [46] - Basic logic: The global temperature is dropping, and the demand for natural gas for combustion and heating is increasing. The supply is sufficient, but the demand support is rising [48] - Strategy: Pay attention to the range of [4.400 - 4.600] for NG [49] Asphalt - Core view: Cautiously bearish. The supply and demand are both weak, and the asphalt price is under downward pressure [50] - Basic logic: The cost - end oil price has回调ed, and the comprehensive profit of asphalt has decreased. The supply is expected to decline in November, and the demand has also decreased. The social inventory has increased [53] - Strategy: Short - allocate lightly. Pay attention to the range of [2950 - 3050] for BU [54] Glass - Core view: Bearish consolidation. The capital game is intense, and caution is required [55] - Basic logic: The daily melting volume has decreased, and the coal - based process still has profits. The factory inventory is slowly decreasing but remains high. The domestic demand is weak, and the demand support is insufficient [56] - Strategy: In the short term, cold - repair provides support. In the long term, the real - estate demand is weak, and the loose pattern is difficult to change. Short on rebounds [56] Soda Ash - Core view: Bearish rebound. Device maintenance has increased, and the price has stopped falling in the short term [7] - Basic logic: The device maintenance has increased, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. The demand is mostly rigid, and the supply will remain loose in the long term due to the high - production cycle [7] - Strategy: The industry should conduct sell - hedging at high prices [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but currently, it is advisable to wait and see as the market tests OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. - For methanol, the port price has dropped rapidly, and the inventory remains high and difficult to deplete. With supply increasing and demand weakening, if the high - inventory issue persists, the market may decline further. It is recommended to wait and see as chasing short after the sharp decline is not cost - effective and there is no driving force for long positions [3]. - For urea, supply has returned and compound fertilizer production has increased. Although downstream demand has followed up and pre - orders have slightly risen, the supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, but the price downside is also restricted. It is advisable to look for short - term long opportunities on dips [7]. - For rubber, the price seems to have stabilized. Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit is recommended, and partial position building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested [11]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, but supply is high with many new devices to be commissioned. Domestic demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. There is a risk of inventory accumulation, so it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the prices of both have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. Although the supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling periodically [17]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The spot price is stable, and the overall inventory is decreasing. The price may maintain a low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [20]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. With high inventory and a large number of warehouse receipts, the cost - side supply - surplus pattern suppresses the market [23]. - For PX, the load is high, but downstream PTA has many maintenance operations and low processing fees. PX inventory is difficult to deplete, and PXN is expected to be under pressure in November. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - For PTA, supply maintenance is expected to increase in November, and there may be inventory depletion, but the processing fee expansion is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair in the short term [26]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry's supply is high, and imports are increasing. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to short on rallies [30]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the INE main crude oil futures were reported at 458.90 yuan/barrel, high - sulfur fuel oil at 2751.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil at 3255.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, test OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. Methanol - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the Taicang price dropped by 35 yuan, Inner Mongolia remained stable, and Lunan dropped by 5 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped by 28 yuan to 2180 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 25 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 4 to - 80 [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high inventory, supply - demand imbalance [3]. Urea - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the Shandong spot price dropped by 10 yuan, Henan remained unchanged, and Hubei dropped by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped by 2 yuan to 1625 yuan, with a basis of - 57 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread remained stable at - 78 [5]. - **Strategy**: Look for short - term long opportunities on dips as the supply - demand is relatively loose but the price downside is limited [7]. Rubber - **Market Data**: The rubber price has returned to the starting point and shows signs of stabilization. As of October 30, 2025, the full - steel tire operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.33%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 3.23 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire operating rate was 74.69%, up 0.20 percentage points from last week but down 4.27 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 103.89 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons or 1% [7][9]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit, partial position building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the PVC01 contract dropped by 65 yuan to 4701 yuan. The Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The basis was - 91 yuan, up 15 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 292 yuan, down 8 yuan. The overall operating rate was 78.3%, up 1.7%. Factory inventory was 33.8 tons, up 0.4 tons, and social inventory was 103 tons, down 0.5 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium term due to high supply, weak demand, and poor export expectations [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the spot price of pure benzene dropped by 144 yuan/ton to 5350 yuan/ton, and the futures price also dropped. The spot price of styrene dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 6400 yuan/ton, and the futures price dropped by 92 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate of pure benzene was 66.72%, down 2.53%. The Jiangsu port inventory of styrene decreased by 0.95 tons to 19.30 tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling periodically as the port inventory decreases significantly [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the futures price of polyethylene dropped by 69 yuan/ton to 6899 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 7010 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, down 0.56%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 tons to 51.46 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.04 tons to 5.00 tons [19]. - **Strategy**: The price may maintain a low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the futures price of polypropylene dropped by 61 yuan/ton to 6590 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 6640 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, up 0.16%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 tons to 63.85 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.86 tons to 22.00 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.11 tons to 6.68 tons [21][22]. - **Strategy**: The cost - side supply - surplus pattern suppresses the market, and it is in a supply - demand weak situation with high inventory [23]. PX - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the PX01 contract rose by 30 yuan to 6618 yuan, and the PX CFR rose by 3 dollars to 820 dollars. The Chinese PX load was 87%, up 1.1%, and the Asian load was 78.1%, down 0.4%. The PTA load was 78%, down 0.8% [23]. - **Strategy**: PXN is expected to be under pressure in November, and it is recommended to wait and see as there is no driving force and the valuation is at a neutral level [24]. PTA - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the PTA01 contract rose by 16 yuan to 4586 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped by 25 yuan/ton to 4510 yuan. The PTA load was 78%, down 0.8%, and the downstream load was 91.7%, up 0.3%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 24 was 220.1 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons [25]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair in the short term as the supply maintenance is expected to increase and there may be inventory depletion but limited processing fee expansion [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the EG01 contract dropped by 14 yuan to 4018 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped by 41 yuan to 4106 yuan. The supply - side load was 76.2%, up 2.9%. The port inventory decreased by 5.6 tons to 52.3 tons [29]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies as the supply is high, imports are increasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [3]. - For methanol, the slow import unloading process has slowed down port inventory accumulation. The market's expectation of reduced imports has increased, and the disk price has stabilized. However, the market structure is weaker than in previous years, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the supply - side device maintenance has returned, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. The market is waiting for positive news, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. - For rubber, the rubber price is oscillating. It is recommended to close short - term long positions and wait and see. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is high, and the price may stop falling periodically [16]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation [19]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. The cost - side supply is in an oversupply situation, and the overall inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. - For PX, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The PX inventory is difficult to continuously decline. The valuation is at a neutral level and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [25]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - side maintenance volume has decreased, and the inventory is slightly increasing. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The valuation is affected by PTA maintenance, and it is recommended to pay attention to the impact of potential production - cut signals [26]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the import volume is increasing. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. The valuation is relatively high, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities [28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures rose 11.00 yuan/barrel, a 2.52% increase, to 447.20 yuan/barrel. The high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 56.00 yuan/ton, a 2.13% increase, to 2691.00 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 71.00 yuan/ton, a 2.32% increase, to 3135.00 yuan/ton. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.02 million barrels to 13.61 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 5.11 million barrels to 14.77 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.04 million barrels to 23.03 million barrels, and the total refined oil inventory increased by 3.06 million barrels to 51.41 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, the price in Inner Mongolia remained stable, the price in southern Shandong decreased by 35 yuan, the 01 contract on the disk decreased by 27 yuan to 2241 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 31. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5 to - 62 [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The slow import unloading process has slowed down port inventory accumulation. The domestic production has declined, and the traditional demand has weakened. The market's expectation of reduced imports has increased, and the disk price has stabilized. However, the market structure is weaker than in previous years, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: The prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the disk decreased by 5 yuan to 1635 yuan, and the basis was - 55. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at - 73 [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side device maintenance has returned, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. The market is waiting for positive news, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price was oscillating. The long - position holders of natural rubber RU believed that factors such as weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, might limit rubber production increase, and there were positive expectations for demand. The short - position holders believed that the macro - economic outlook was uncertain, demand was in a seasonal off - peak, and the supply increase might be less than expected. As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.29%, up 0.21 percentage points from the previous week and 2.81 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.49%, up 0.12 percentage points from the previous week but down 4.53 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire export orders slowed down. As of October 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1050000 tons, a decrease of 30000 tons, or 2.8%. The inventory in Qingdao was 427500 (- 19100) tons [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price is oscillating. It is recommended to close short - term long positions and wait and see. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 30 yuan to 4716 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 116 (+ 30) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 288 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2500 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 800 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 765 (0) US dollars/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 76.6%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous period, with the calcium carbide method at 74.4% (a decrease of 0.3%) and the ethylene method at 81.6% (an increase of 0.4%). The overall downstream operating rate was 49.9%, an increase of 1.3%. The in - factory inventory was 334000 tons (- 27000), and the social inventory was 1035000 tons (+ 1000) [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of pure benzene in East China was 5485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract of pure benzene was 5495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of pure benzene was - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract of styrene was 6466 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The basis was - 16 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 109.37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 539.15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a decrease of 2.63%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports was 202500 tons, an increase of 60000 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 42.77%, a decrease of 0.16%. The operating rate of PS remained unchanged at 53.80%, the operating rate of EPS decreased by 0.54% to 61.98%, and the operating rate of ABS decreased by 0.30% to 72.80% [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is high, and the price may stop falling periodically [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7035 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 39 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a decrease of 0.56%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 514600 tons, a decrease of 14900 tons, and the inventory of traders was 50000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 45.75%, an increase of 0.83%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6657 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, an increase of 0.16%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 638500 tons, a decrease of 40200 tons, the inventory of traders was 220000 tons, a decrease of 18600 tons, and the port inventory was 66800 tons, a decrease of 1100 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.37%, an increase of 0.52%. The LL - PP spread was 328 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. The cost - side supply is in an oversupply situation, and the overall inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 8 yuan to 6618 yuan, the PX CFR price decreased by 7 US dollars to 814 US dollars. The basis was 30 yuan (- 51), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 16 yuan (+ 18). The PX load in China was 85.9%, an increase of 1%, and the Asian load was 78.5%, an increase of 0.5%. A 540000 - ton plant of PTTG in Thailand was under maintenance, and the maintenance in Saudi Arabia was postponed. The PTA load was 78.8%, an increase of 2.8%. Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, some plants restored their loads, and a new plant of Dushan Energy was put into operation. In the first and middle of October, South Korea exported 256000 tons of PX to China, an increase of 19000 tons compared to the same period last year. The inventory at the end of August was 3918000 tons, an increase of 19000 tons compared to the previous month. The PXN was 243 US dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 101 US dollars (- 4) [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The PX inventory is difficult to continuously decline. The valuation is at a neutral level and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [25]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 2 yuan to 4614 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 30 yuan to 4535 yuan. The basis was - 81 yuan (unchanged), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (- 2). The PTA load was 78.8%, an increase of 2.8%. Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, some plants restored their loads, and a new plant of Dushan Energy was put into operation. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The terminal texturing load increased by 4% to 84%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 75%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 17 was 2176000 tons, an increase of 16000 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 69 yuan to 174 yuan, and the processing fee on the disk increased by 4 yuan to 273 yuan [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply - side maintenance volume has decreased, and the inventory is slightly increasing. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The valuation is affected by PTA maintenance, and it is recommended to pay attention to the impact of potential production - cut signals [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 4069 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 16 yuan to 4167 yuan. The basis was 76 yuan (- 8), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 83 yuan (unchanged). The supply - side operating rate of ethylene glycol was 73.3%, a decrease of 3.7%, with the synthetic gas method at 82.2% (an increase of 0.8%) and the ethylene method at 68.2% (a decrease of 6.3%). There were few changes in synthetic gas plants. In the oil - chemical sector, Fulian and Shenghong were under maintenance, CNOOC Shell restarted, and Zhongke Refining and Chemical had a short - term shutdown and then resumed. Overseas, Shell in the United States restarted. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The terminal texturing load increased by 4% to 84%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 75%. The forecast of imported arrivals was 198000 tons, and the departure volume from East China ports on October 27 was 8600 tons. The port inventory was 523000 tons, a decrease of 56000 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 628 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 561 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 261 yuan. The cost - side ethylene price remained unchanged at 765 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines increased to 680 yuan [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is high, and the import volume is increasing. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. The valuation is relatively high, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For oil prices, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term bearishness is not advisable. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, with slow import unloading, slower port inventory accumulation, and potential supply disruptions from winter gas - fired plant shutdowns, the downward momentum of the futures price is expected to be limited, and it's advisable to wait and see [6]. - For urea, with supply device maintenance returning and demand from compound fertilizer production rising, the inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. Although consumption lacks positive factors, the downward space of the spot price is limited, and it's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [8][10]. - For rubber, as the positive factors for rubber prices are diminishing, it's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and wait and see. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10][12]. - For PVC, with continuous decline in enterprise comprehensive profits, high production, weak domestic demand, and poor export prospects in the fourth quarter, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium term [13][14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the decline in pure benzene and styrene prices, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The high port inventory of styrene may lead to a phased stop of price decline [16][17]. - For polyethylene, with cost - side support from the rebound of crude oil prices, high - level inventory reduction, and seasonal demand recovery, the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [19][20]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the futures price [22][23]. - For PX, with high load and difficulty in continuous inventory reduction, it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil prices. A potential PTA production - cut signal may have a negative feedback on PX prices [23][24]. - For PTA, with short - term inventory accumulation and weak long - term prospects, if there is a production - cut signal, it will benefit PTA processing fees but may have a negative impact on PX prices [24][25]. - For ethylene glycol, with high domestic supply, increasing imports, and expected continuous inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [26][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 2.70 yuan/barrel, or 0.58%, at 468.90 yuan/barrel. China's weekly crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 0.53 million barrels to 212.44 million barrels, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.25% [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, and wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 10 yuan, remained stable in Inner Mongolia, and decreased by 20 yuan in southern Shandong. The 01 contract of the futures price decreased by 4 yuan to 2268 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 38 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: With slow import unloading and potential supply disruptions, the downward momentum of the futures price is limited. It's advisable to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased. The 01 contract of the futures price decreased by 2 yuan to 1640 yuan, with a basis of - 60 yuan [7]. - **Strategy**: With supply device maintenance returning and demand from compound fertilizer production rising, the inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. The downward space of the spot price is limited, and it's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [8][10]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The positive factors for rubber prices are diminishing. As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong enterprises was 65.29%, and that of semi - steel tires in domestic enterprises was 74.49%. As of October 19, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1050000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30000 tons [10]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and wait and see. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC increased by 38 yuan to 4746 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 146 yuan. The overall operating rate was 76.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. Factory inventory was 334000 tons, and social inventory was 1035000 tons [12]. - **Strategy**: With continuous decline in enterprise comprehensive profits, high production, weak domestic demand, and poor export prospects in the fourth quarter, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium term [13][14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The BZN spread was 109.87 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 dollars/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a decrease of 2.63%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.60 million tons to 20.25 million tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The high port inventory of styrene may lead to a phased stop of price decline [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polyethylene closed at 7024 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 million tons to 51.46 million tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.83% [19]. - **Strategy**: With cost - side support from the rebound of crude oil prices, high - level inventory reduction, and seasonal demand recovery, the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polypropylene closed at 6699 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a month - on - month increase of 0.16%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 million tons to 63.85 million tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52% [21][22]. - **Strategy**: In a situation of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the futures price [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PX increased by 104 yuan to 6626 yuan. The Chinese load was 85.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9 million tons [23]. - **Strategy**: With high load and difficulty in continuous inventory reduction, it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil prices. A potential PTA production - cut signal may have a negative feedback on PX prices [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PTA increased by 98 yuan to 4616 yuan. The PTA load was 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 2.8%. The social inventory on October 17 was 217.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6 million tons [24]. - **Strategy**: With short - term inventory accumulation and weak long - term prospects, if there is a production - cut signal, it will benefit PTA processing fees but may have a negative impact on PX prices [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of ethylene glycol increased by 32 yuan to 4109 yuan. The supply - side load was 73.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7%. The port inventory decreased by 5.6 million tons to 52.3 million tons [26]. - **Strategy**: With high domestic supply, increasing imports, and expected continuous inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Crude oil, LPG, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, natural gas, asphalt [1][2][5] - Bearish rebound: L, PP, PVC [1] - Cautiously bearish: Methanol, urea [2] - Bearish consolidation: Glass, soda ash [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks and strategies for various energy and chemical products, considering factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and cost fluctuations. For example, geopolitical tensions and macro - factors are driving short - term price rebounds in some products, while long - term supply - demand imbalances may lead to price declines [1][7]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rose significantly, with WTI up 5.62%, Brent up 4.31%, and SC up 2.76% [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical tensions in South America and new sanctions on Russia have led to a price rebound, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to continue to decline [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is affected by sanctions on Russian oil companies; demand growth is expected to slow; and US commercial crude inventories decreased last week [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, buy call options to control risks, and also buy put options. Pay attention to the SC range of [465 - 475] [9]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On October 23, the PG main contract closed at 4204 yuan/ton, up 1.79% [11][12]. - **Basic Logic**: It follows the cost of crude oil. Supply has decreased slightly, demand has improved, and port inventories have declined [13]. - **Strategy**: Buy put options. Pay attention to the PG range of [4200 - 4300] [14]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6999 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices have not kept up, the basis has weakened, and it rebounds weakly following the cost. Supply is expected to be loose, and demand has limited restocking motivation [18]. - **Strategy**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Short - term short positions can be reduced, and wait for the rebound to enter short positions. Pay attention to the L range of [6900 - 7050] [18]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6691 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices have not kept up, the basis has weakened, and the supply - demand situation is weak. Oil prices may continue to fall, and cost support is insufficient [23]. - **Strategy**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices. Short - term short positions can be reduced, and wait for the rebound to enter short positions. Pay attention to the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [23]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4719 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Basic Logic**: Social inventories are high, but there is an expectation of increased exports. New production capacity has been mostly released, and attention should be paid to potential production cuts [27]. - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices. Short - term light - position participation in the rebound is recommended. Pay attention to the V range of [4600 - 4800] [27]. PX - **Basic Logic**: Supply from domestic and overseas plants has decreased slightly, demand is expected to improve, and cost is supported by the short - term oil price rebound [28]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at low valuations and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the PX range of [6520 - 6600] [29]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA01 contract closed at 4402 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is expected to increase with planned plant overhauls and new plant startups. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is a high inventory build - up pressure from October to November. It follows the cost and fluctuates weakly [31]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at low valuations and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the TA range of [4520 - 4580] [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG01 contract closed at 4085 yuan/ton [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic plants have increased production, overseas plants have slightly decreased production, and inventories have increased slightly. It has limited upward momentum and follows the cost [34]. - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the EG range of [4060 - 4140] [35]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The MA01 contract closed at 2272 yuan/ton [36]. - **Basic Logic**: High inventories suppress spot prices. Supply pressure is high, and demand lacks significant positive factors. Cost support is weak [37]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR01 contract closed at 1602 yuan/ton [40]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak domestically but exports are good. Inventories are accumulating, and cost support exists [41]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously, but consider light - position long - term long positions due to low valuations. Pay attention to the UR range of [1615 - 1645] [43]. Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: With the decrease in temperature, demand is expected to increase, but supply is also sufficient. Short - term geopolitical factors should be monitored [5]. - **Strategy**: Not mentioned in the report. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is relatively loose, and cost is affected by geopolitical factors. Current valuations are high [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy put options [5]. Glass - **Basic Logic**: Post - holiday inventories have increased counter - seasonally, domestic demand is weak, and supply is under pressure [5]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious in short - term trading due to capital games, and be bearish on medium - term rebounds [5]. Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: Inventories are high, supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [5]. - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices, and be bearish on medium - to - long - term rebounds. Hold long positions in the soda - glass spread [5].

Group 1: Report Core Views - Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now [2] - For methanol, the import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply drops slightly, coal prices rebound, and demand remains weak. The pattern of high inventory and weak reality persists, and it is advisable to wait and see, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions [4] - Regarding urea, short - term malfunctioning devices increase, production declines, and demand is weak. The price is at a low level with low valuation, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [7] - Rubber prices are rising due to typhoons and stock market bullishness. Bulls and bears have different views. It is recommended to set stop - losses for short - term long positions and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread [12][14] - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is high, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [15] - In the case of pure benzene and styrene, the cost side shows a potential supply surplus. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and styrene prices may stop falling stage - by - stage [19] - For polyethylene, the cost side supports the price, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [22] - For polypropylene, the cost side may face an expanding supply surplus, supply pressure is high, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory [25] - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many short - term overhauls, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] - For PTA, the supply side may accumulate inventory slightly, demand is showing signs of weakness, and it is recommended to wait and see [29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and ports are accumulating inventory. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [31] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Market Information Summaries Crude Oil - INE's main crude oil futures rose 11.00 yuan/barrel, a 2.52% increase, to 447.20 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also had price increases [9] Methanol - The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, in Inner Mongolia increased by 10 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract of the futures market decreased by 7 yuan to 2261 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 19 [3] Urea - Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract of the futures market increased by 12 yuan to 1621 yuan, with a basis of - 91 [6] Rubber - Rubber prices rose due to the influence of Typhoon Fengshen on major production areas. As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong increased by 18.70 percentage points week - on - week, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 23.50 percentage points week - on - week [12] PVC - The 01 - contract of PVC rose 20 yuan to 4719 yuan. The overall operating rate was 76.7%, a 5.9% decrease from the previous period. Factory and social inventories decreased [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The spot price of pure benzene decreased by 118 yuan/ton, and the futures price also decreased. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 100 yuan/ton [18] Polyethylene - The main - contract closing price of polyethylene rose 53 yuan/ton to 6936 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [21] Polypropylene - The main - contract closing price of polypropylene rose 36 yuan/ton to 6619 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventories decreased [23] PX - The 01 - contract of PX rose 118 yuan to 6450 yuan. The Asian and Chinese operating loads decreased. Some domestic and overseas devices were under maintenance [27] PTA - The 01 - contract of PTA rose 68 yuan to 4482 yuan. The operating load increased by 1.6%, and downstream load decreased slightly. Social inventory increased [28] Ethylene Glycol - The 01 - contract of ethylene glycol rose 47 yuan to 4051 yuan. The supply - side operating load increased, downstream load decreased slightly, and port inventory increased [30]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polypropylene, Styrene, PVC, Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, Glass: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated in the table, but with analysis in the report [3] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: The symbol in the table is unclear [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a mixed trend, with different products having different price trends and supply - demand situations. Some products are affected by factors such as inventory, cost, demand, and policies, and their short - term and medium - term trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with controllable enterprise inventories and stable offers. Downstream follow - up was okay, and the trading range was stable [2] - Polyethylene futures rose, but the market was waiting for news, with cost support weakening and supply pressure. Sellers mostly offered small discounts [2] - Polypropylene futures rose. Although the supply pressure decreased due to more upstream maintenance, the demand improvement in the peak season was limited, and the high - level inventory was slowly digested. The supply - demand contradiction may increase, and the price may remain low for a long time [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices rebounded above 5500 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China rebounded, and the low - level transactions in Shandong improved. The short - term price may rebound, but the high import volume in the medium term is the main pressure [3] - Styrene futures rose, but there were only expected device shutdowns. The inventory remained high, and the upward price momentum was limited [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rebounded with reduced positions. The short - term price may continue to rebound, mainly depending on oil prices. In the medium term, with the weakening demand and expected inventory accumulation, the strategy is mainly reverse arbitrage [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded with increased positions. The short - term price has a rebound expectation, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure in the medium term, suggesting shorting at high prices [5] - Short fiber continued to be a bullish allocation. The new production capacity was limited, the inventory was decreasing, and the downstream备货 sentiment was improved [5] - Bottle chip demand weakened, with inventory accumulation and pressure on processing margins. The long - term pressure is over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol fluctuated at a low level. The short - term coastal market may fluctuate within a range, and the price may be bullish in the medium - to - long term as the import supply pressure is expected to decrease [6] - Urea futures prices rose slightly. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, supported by the marginal improvement of supply - demand and coal prices [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a fluctuating trend. The supply may increase, and it may operate at the bottom range due to weak domestic demand and potential export policy pressure [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated narrowly. The supply fluctuated slightly, and it is recommended to be cautious when shorting due to non - aluminum downstream restocking and a high basis [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated strongly. The supply was still high, and it is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [8] - Glass fluctuated narrowly. The inventory continued to accumulate, and the downward range is expected to be limited. It is advisable to pay attention to selling out - of - the - money put options [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and imports are likely to remain high in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, making inventory reduction difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland region. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect methanol profits [2]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream producers and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profits are around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating. LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New plants in 2025 will bring significant pressure [7]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of major producers are decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import profits are around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. PDH profits are around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Drawing production is at a neutral level. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH plants have more maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the implementation of new production capacity and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB380. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stabilizing, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 14 to October 20, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2285 to 2278, and the South China spot price decreased from 2270 to 2253. Other regional prices also showed certain fluctuations [2]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From October 14 to October 20, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 785 on some days. The North China LL price decreased from 6890 to 6840, and the East China LL price remained at 7025 on some days. Other related prices and data also had corresponding changes [7]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From October 14 to October 20, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6260 to 6000, and the Northeast Asian propylene price remained at 750. The East China PP price and other related prices also showed fluctuations [7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From October 14 to October 20, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2425 to 2450, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 835 to 822. The East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price increased from 4640 to 4680 [7].