Report 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View Although steel demand is weak, the cost side provides support. Pay attention to the support levels around 3000 and 3200 for the January contract of rebar and hot-rolled coil respectively. The short-term weak macro sentiment will suppress the black market, but if the Sino-US friction intensifies in the medium term, the inflation expectation of upstream resource products will increase. [1] Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3230 to 3220 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar decreased from 3159 to 3139 yuan/ton. [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The steel billet price decreased by 10 to 2940 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot-rolled coil in East China decreased by 7. [1] - **Mills**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.8 to 863.3 tons, a decline of 0.4%. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 127.9 to 1600.7 tons, an increase of 8.7%. The rebar inventory increased by 57.4 to 659.6 tons, an increase of 9.5%. [1] - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.7 to 9.1 tons, a decline of 7.1%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 153.4 to 751.4 tons, a decline of 17.0%. [1] Report 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The weak performance of finished products drags down the raw materials. The iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low levels and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot-rolled coil. [4] Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the 1-5 spread increased by 3.0 to 23.5, an increase of 14.6%. [4] - **Supply**: The weekly global shipment volume of iron ore decreased by 71.5 to 3207.5 tons, a decline of 2.2%, and the 45-port arrival volume increased by 437.1 to 3045.8 tons, an increase of 16.8%. [4] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9 tons, a decline of 2.9%. [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45-port inventory increased by 46.7 to 14024.5 tons, an increase of 0.3%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 990.6 to 9046.2 tons, a decline of 9.9%. [4] Report 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View For coke, it is recommended to go short on the Coke 2601 contract at high levels, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go short on the Coking Coal 2601 contract at high levels, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal. [6] Summary by Directory - **Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts mostly declined. For example, the 01 contract of coke decreased from 1667 to 1643 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of coking coal decreased from 1161 to 1146 yuan/ton. [6] - **Supply**: The daily average output of all-sample coking plants remained unchanged at 66.1 tons, and the output of raw coal decreased by 31.3 to 836.7 tons, a decline of 3.6%. [6] - **Demand**: The iron ore output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 10.1 to 909.8 tons, a decline of 1.1%, and the coking coal inventory of all-sample coking plants decreased by 78.7 to 959.1 tons, a decline of 7.6%. [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are recommended to be bought on dips in the medium - long term; Treasury bonds are advised to be kept under observation [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to be kept under observation [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to be held long on dips; Aluminum is advised to set up long positions on pullbacks; Nickel is recommended to be kept under observation or shorted on rallies; Tin is for range trading; Gold is to be bought on dips; Silver is for range trading [1][11][13][18] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are expected to oscillate; Polyolefins are to have wide - range oscillations; Soda ash 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [1][21][23][24][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA is for narrow - range oscillations; Apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate strongly [1][33][35][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are to be shorted on rallies; Eggs are to be shorted on rallies; Corn is for wide - range oscillations; Soybean meal is for low - level oscillations; Oils are expected to have limited pullbacks [1][38][40][44][45][50] Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as macro - policies, international trade relations, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal factors. Different industries and varieties have different investment strategies based on their specific situations [5][8][11] Summaries by Categories Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: On October 13, the A - share market opened low and closed high. The market may oscillate, but is optimistic in the medium - long term, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures rebounded. The bond market may oscillate around the theme of Sino - US game, and it is advisable to keep under observation [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Affected by rainfall and weak demand, the pit - mouth price shows a differentiated trend. There is an expected increase in demand for early heating, and it is for range trading [8] - **Rebar**: The price oscillated down on Monday. The static valuation is low, and the demand in October is to be focused on. It is expected to be weak first and then strong, with a suggestion to go long around 3000 for RB2601 [8] - **Glass**: Some enterprises raised prices slightly, but the shipment was restricted. The supply increased, and the inventory rose. The demand is weak. It is advisable to keep under observation, focusing on the changes in Shahe production lines [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by Sino - US trade relations, the price may have high - level oscillations. The long - term supply - demand outlook is optimistic, and it is recommended to hold long on dips [11] - **Aluminum**: The bauxite price declined, the production capacity increased steadily, the demand is in the peak season, and the inventory accumulation is normal. It is advisable to set up long positions on pullbacks [13] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. The supply is in surplus in the medium - long term. It is recommended to keep under observation or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is warming up. It is for range trading, with a reference range of 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 11 contract [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US economic data and interest - rate cut expectations, they are expected to oscillate. It is advisable to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 4850 pressure [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, the demand is increasing marginally, and it is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2380 - 2530 range [23][24] - **Styrene**: The cost - profit situation is not good, the inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly, with a focus on the 6600 - 6900 range [24][25] - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the price may oscillate, with a focus on the 15,000 support [26][27] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, focusing on factors such as compound fertilizer production and exports [28] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the main downstream is strong, and it is expected to oscillate [30] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The PE 2601 and PP 2601 contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on the 6900 and 6600 supports respectively [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak after the festival, and the inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and there is uncertainty in Sino - US relations. The market may oscillate with a bearish expectation [33][34] - **PTA**: The crude oil price is weak, the cost support is insufficient, and the PTA is accumulating inventory. It is for narrow - range oscillations in the 4500 - 4750 range [34][35] - **Apples**: Affected by weather, the supply time of red apples is postponed. The quality is lower, and the price may oscillate strongly [35][36] - **Jujubes**: The sales during the National Day were flat. The new - season jujubes are about to be harvested, and the price may oscillate strongly [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and the supply is large in the medium - long term. Different contracts have different strategies, such as reducing short positions for the 11 contract and short - selling for the 01, 03, 05 contracts in the long - term [38][39] - **Eggs**: The demand is weak after the festival, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term price may oscillate at a low level. The 11 - contract short positions can be partially closed, and the 12 and 01 contracts are to wait for rallies to short - sell [40][41][42] - **Corn**: The new corn is on the market, and the supply is sufficient in the short term. The demand is weak, and the price may oscillate. The 11 - contract is for a short - selling strategy, and an attention is to be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by the harvest pressure and slow exports of US soybeans, the domestic soybean meal may oscillate at a low level, focusing on the support of 2900 - 2930 for the M2601 contract [45] - **Oils**: The short - term pullback is limited. The 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil should focus on the support levels of 8200 - 8250, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively, with a strategy of going long after the pullback [50]

| | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/10/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盗司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/10/13 | 4067. 85 | 51.51 | 4086. 90 | 49. 49 | 927.56 | 11531.00 | 924. 40 | 11430.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据来源: | 2025/10/10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China are deemed unsustainable, with calls for gradual de-escalation of tariffs and trade barriers [1][6]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset emphasizes that the current tariff standoff is problematic for both nations, leading to increased tensions and economic difficulties [1]. - The U.S. has imposed high tariffs on a wide range of Chinese goods, while China retaliated with tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, causing significant challenges for American farmers [1][3]. - Despite the trade tensions, the U.S. maintains a competitive edge in high-end exports to China, which are difficult for China to replace in the short term [3]. Group 2: China's Economic Resilience - Since the reform and opening-up in 1978, China's GDP per capita has surged from a few hundred dollars to over $10,000 by 2025, establishing it as the world's second-largest economy [3]. - China has adapted to U.S. tariffs by enhancing domestic consumption and establishing manufacturing bases in Southeast Asia, which has bolstered its service sector [3]. - The Chinese economy is projected to grow at around 5% in the first half of 2025, outperforming many developed nations [3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Response - China has a history of enduring external pressures, which has fostered a resilient national spirit and a strategic approach to trade disputes [4]. - The Chinese government views the U.S. tariffs as a familiar tactic and is committed to defending its core interests, emphasizing sovereignty and rejecting unilateralism [6][7]. - The lack of unified support from other countries for U.S. actions against China reflects a shift in the international landscape, with many nations prioritizing their economic interests [7][9]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The trade conflict is characterized as a protracted struggle rather than a quick resolution, with China's responses being strategic rather than reactionary [9]. - Public support for domestic products in China has strengthened the government's position, allowing it to mitigate the impact of tariffs through increased internal consumption [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, providing insights on their supply - demand, price trends, and investment strategies based on current market conditions such as geopolitical events, trade frictions, and seasonal factors [2][3][4] - It also offers views on financial products like stock indices and treasury bonds, considering macro - economic factors and policy directions [47][48] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices partially recovered on Monday. Fourth - quarter Brent crude average price is expected to drop from $67/barrel in Q3 to $62/barrel. Short - term, end - of - month APAC meeting and Sino - US talks may affect risk sentiment, and the previously recommended strategy can be temporarily closed [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is expected to follow crude oil's oscillation. High - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support but faces medium - term pressure, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental outlook [20] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: OPEC+增产背景下海外伴生气供应压力加剧，沙特10月CP价格下调超出市场预期，LPG缺乏利好支撑而承压 [22] - **Urea**: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and the domestic supply - demand pattern is loose. The market is likely to continue its weak trend [23] - **Methanol**: The Iran sanctions ship event may reduce imports. Coastal MTO device operation is stable, and port inventory accumulation is less than expected [24] - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: Cost support weakens, downstream demand is scattered, and inventory needs to be digested. Prices are under pressure [27] - **PVC &烧碱**: Trade friction may affect PVC exports. PVC supply is high, and it may have a weak - oscillating trend. Caustic soda has a marginal improvement, and the decline of futures prices is expected to be limited [28] - **PX & PTA**: PX price decline drives the polyester industry chain down. Supply is under pressure, and downstream demand is expected to weaken in the mid - to - long term [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic production increases, ports accumulate inventory, but the price is at the bottom of the range. Pay attention to Sino - US trade relations [30] - **Short Fibre & Bottle Chip**: Short - fibre prices decline due to raw material and trade friction. Bottle - chip production increases inventory, and demand is expected to weaken [31] - **Glass**: It is in a weak state. After the holiday, inventory accumulates, and supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to wait for low - buying opportunities near the cost [32] - **20 - Number Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: Demand recovers after the holiday, supply pressure is high, and inventory decreases. It is advisable to wait and see [33] - **纯碱**: Supply is high, demand increase is limited, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. It is advisable to short at high - rebound levels [34] - **大豆 &豆粕**: Domestic soybean supply in Q4 is sufficient, but it may be tight in Q1 next year. Wait and see for now, and be cautiously bullish in the long term [35] - **豆油 &棕榈油**: US soybean sales are slow. The supply of South American soybeans and existing domestic inventory can buffer. Palm oil inventory is high. Wait for price bottom - seeking and then go long [36] - **菜粕 &菜油**: Canadian rapeseed harvest nears completion, with good yield. Pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations. Consider short - selling rapeseed - related products in cross - product strategies [37] - **豆一**: Domestic soybeans are rebounding, and imports from the US are affected. Supply may be tight in Q1 next year. Pay attention to policy guidance [38] - **玉米**: Corn futures decline. New grain supply increases, and prices are under pressure. Hold short positions and wait for policy support [39] - **生猪**: Futures prices are under pressure, and the spot price is at the bottom. Pay attention to secondary fattening and the industry's capacity reduction cycle [40] - **鸡蛋**: Near - month contracts are strong, and far - month contracts are weak. Accelerate the elimination of old chickens. Short near - month contracts and go long on far - month contracts [41] - **棉花**: US cotton demand is weak, and domestic cotton supply may increase significantly. Demand is weak. Temporarily wait and see [42] - **白糖**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output. Pay attention to weather and sugarcane growth [43] - **苹果**: Futures prices are high - oscillating. Supply change is small, and cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected. Adopt a short - selling strategy [44] - **木材**: Prices are in a correction. Supply is low, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is small. Wait and see [45] - **纸浆**: Futures prices rise. Port inventory is high, and demand is average. Pay attention to inventory changes and wait and see [46] - **Stock Indices**: A - share market had a V - shaped recovery. Pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade relations and domestic policies. Increase allocation to the technology - growth sector in the medium term [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures prices rise. The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy. The yield curve steepening may end, and long - term bonds are more likely to recover [48]

Economic Indicators - Manufacturing investment growth is expected to be 4.0% for January to September, the first time since 2021 that it falls below GDP growth of approximately 5.1%[2] - September PPI is expected to narrow year-on-year to -2.5%, with a month-on-month decline of around -0.2%[15] - Retail sales growth for September is projected at 3.2%, while fixed asset investment growth for January to September is estimated at -0.2%[15] Policy Adjustments - Recent policy adjustments include the acceleration of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and changes to real estate purchase restrictions in first-tier cities[3][13] - The government plans to enhance economic monitoring and timely policy adjustments based on economic conditions, as stated in a press conference on September 29[2] Trade Relations - The recent escalation in US-China trade tensions includes a proposed 100% additional tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, which has led to a short-term market reaction[5][24] - Historical data suggests that trade tensions have limited long-term impacts on market pricing, primarily affecting risk preferences rather than fundamental economic growth[4][19] Market Trends - The bond market has shown a quick decline in yields following the announcement of new tariffs, with a focus on the 1.7%-1.75% yield range for future movements[5][26] - The dollar index has rebounded by 2.3% since the Federal Reserve's September meeting, driven by a decrease in short positions and increased foreign investment in US Treasury bonds[6][28] Fund Performance - The total equity fund position increased to 96.02%, up by 118 bps from the previous week, while mixed funds rose to 93.86%, an increase of 70 bps[9][35] - The average return for equity ETFs was -0.66%, while mixed bond funds performed slightly better with an average return of -0.08%[9][37]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas risk assets have recovered, and A-shares opened lower and closed higher. The gold price reached a new high of $4,132 due to uncertainties such as Trump's tariff threats, the US government shutdown, and interest rate cut expectations. A-shares showed resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding over 2% after touching 3,800 points. In the long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. China's September export and import data were better than expected, and the export structure continued to diversify [2][3]. - Precious metals are in a strong upward phase. Silver prices have reached new highs, driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, Fed interest rate cut expectations, and central bank gold - buying. If the shortage of London silver persists, silver prices are expected to continue to soar [4]. - Copper prices rebounded. Although there are uncertainties in Sino - US trade, China's September import data was strong, and the Fed's dovish stance on interest rate cuts is expected to support copper prices in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices were adjusted. The market was mainly influenced by news, and the aluminum price is expected to remain in a favorable shock range considering the supply - demand fundamentals [8]. - Alumina prices are expected to remain weak due to sufficient supply, rigid demand, and a supply - demand balance leaning towards surplus [10]. - Zinc prices stabilized and oscillated. Sino - US tariff friction cooled down, and the Fed's hint of interest rate cuts supported zinc prices, but the increase in domestic social inventory limited the upward space [11]. - Lead prices faced increasing downward pressure. With the approaching delivery and the resumption of production in refineries, supply is expected to increase while demand improvement is limited [12]. - Tin prices adjusted at a high level. Supply disturbances limited the downward space, and the market was waiting for further developments in Sino - US tariff friction [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices oscillated within a range. Supply was slightly in surplus, and demand showed mixed trends, resulting in short - term price oscillations [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated weakly. Although the power and energy storage markets were strong, supply continued to hit new highs, and with the cooling of resource disturbances, prices may decline [17]. - Nickel prices may rebound. Sino - US trade disturbances cooled down, and although the supply of nickel ore was expected to be loose, the current price was at the lower end of the range [19]. - The prices of soda ash and glass oscillated at a low level. After the holiday, inventory increased, and downstream purchasing was weak, so the market sentiment was low [20][21]. - Steel prices oscillated weakly. Terminal demand was weak, and the supply pressure increased, so the futures prices of steel showed a weak trend [22]. - Iron ore prices oscillated. The supply was stable, and the arrival of goods increased, while the demand from steel mills remained high, so the price was expected to oscillate [23][24]. - The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal oscillated weakly. Brazil's soybean sowing progress was fast, and domestic soybean inventory increased after the holiday, resulting in sufficient supply in the short term [25][26]. - Palm oil prices adjusted with wide - range oscillations. Malaysia's palm oil production and demand both increased in October, and although there were some supporting factors, the weakening of oil prices and cautious market sentiment led to price oscillations [27][28]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - This section provides the closing prices, changes, change percentages, trading volumes, and positions of various metal futures contracts on October 13, including copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, industrial silicon, and agricultural products such as soybean and rapeseed meal [29]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, it shows the prices, inventory changes, and other data of SHFE copper and LME copper from October 10 to 13, including spot prices, warehouse receipts, inventory, and price spreads [30]. - For nickel, it presents the price changes, inventory, and other information of SHFE nickel and LME nickel from October 10 to 13 [30]. - For other metals such as zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean and rapeseed meal, it also provides relevant price, inventory, and spread data from different periods [33][34][35].

招商证券也认为，对于港股市场而言，在四季度预计呈现先抑后扬的走势。在短期缺乏增量利好的情况 下，港股可能延续震荡态势。但随着美联储降息利好外资流入、相关会议增量政策提振市场风险偏好、 中国AI产业继续取得突破，港股的多重边际利好积聚，有望迎来上涨。 公开信息显示，截至10月13日，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）标的指数最新估值（PETTM）为23.36 倍，处于指数发布以来约31.75%的估值分位点，仍处于历史相对低估区间，而高弹性、高成长等特性 使其具备更大的向上动能。没有港股通账户的投资者或可通过恒生科技指数ETF（513180）一键布局中 国AI核心资产。（场外联接A/C：013402/013403）。 10月14日早盘，港股三大指数集体上涨，恒生科技指数涨幅有所收窄。主流ETF方面，A股同赛道规模 最大的恒生科技指数ETF（513180）盘中一度涨超1.5%，持仓股中，小鹏汽车、京东集团、比亚迪股份 等涨幅居前；港股通汽车ETF（159323）涨超2%，小鹏汽车、京城机电股份、亿华通、潍柴动力、赣 锋锂业、比亚迪股份等持仓股领涨。 国元国际称，在美联储开启降息空间后，届时国内可能会跟随出台相关宽松 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trade friction disturbs the stock index, which opens lower but is expected to rebound after the initial decline, with the long - term upward trend remaining unchanged. The bond market influence is complex, and the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased allocation value when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. Different commodities have different trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Affected by trade friction, the stock index opens lower. It is recommended to sell put options near MO2512 - P - 7000 to collect premiums [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the spot bond interest rate rises. The T2512 oscillation range may be between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is advisable to wait for oversold opportunities [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Due to the continuous fermentation of Sino - US trade friction concerns, precious metals reach new highs. It is recommended to buy gold at a light position above 910 yuan and maintain a long - silver strategy above 50 dollars [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Given macro uncertainties, it is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Affected by Sino - US friction, steel prices are weakly sorted. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances weaken, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - **Coking Coal**: After the festival, coking coal prices have a phased correction. It is recommended to go short on coking coal 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented before the festival, and there is limited room for further increases. It is recommended to go short on coke 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: With the easing of tariff concerns, copper prices are strongly running. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [3]. - **Alumina**: The market supply is sufficient, and the spot price continues to fall. The main operation range is 2850 - 3050 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment boosts the price center to around 21000, and the main reference range is 20700 - 21300 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum quotation is firm, and the finished ingot price rises with the aluminum price. The main reference range is 20200 - 20800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have limited support for prices, and zinc prices oscillate. The main reference range is 21500 - 22500 [3]. - **Tin**: With the repair of the macro - sentiment, tin prices rise slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectations are volatile, and the main reference range is 120000 - 126000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - risk increases, and the industrial demand is still insufficient. The main reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The macro - sentiment repair promotes the oil price rebound, but the loose fundamentals suppress the oil price. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis [3]. - **Urea**: The market trading sentiment improves, but the short - term rebound lacks fundamental support. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and reduce the implied volatility at high prices on the option side [3]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the oil price support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on PX11 and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on TA and pay attention to the support near 4500, and conduct rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and there is short - term support. It is recommended to increase the spread at low positions, but the driving force is limited [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, but the cost side is weak, and the short - term processing fee improves. The trading suggestions are the same as those for PTA, and the main processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol**: The port inventory accumulates, and the supply - demand structure of MEG in the far - month is weak. It is recommended to short - sell EG01 at high prices, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 at high prices [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the short - term downstream demand for alumina is average. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **PVC**: The spot procurement enthusiasm is average, and the disk continues to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price driving force is limited. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate following benzene ethylene and the oil price in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the benzene ethylene price may be under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell on the rebound of EB11 and increase the spread at the low level of the EB - BZ spread [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support weakens, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to hold the seller of the call option BR2511 - C - 11400 [3]. - **LLDPE**: The disk price drops, and the arbitrage transaction is average. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The PDH profit is significantly repaired, and the transaction improves. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens significantly, and the transaction is acceptable. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Soybean and Related Products**: Affected by the changing Sino - US trade expectations, the supply pressure suppresses domestic prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of 01 near 2900 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The slaughter pressure of the breeding end is large, and the pig price remains low, showing a weak oscillating trend [3]. - **Corn**: As the supply increases, the disk price is under pressure and runs weakly [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by the fundamentals, palm oil stops falling and recovers. The main short - term oscillation range may be between 9000 - 9500 [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad, and the raw sugar price drops sharply. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the short term [3]. - **Cotton**: With the new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **Egg**: After the festival, the demand weakens, and it maintains a short - bias trend. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2511 contract at low prices and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The redness of late - Fuji apples is relatively light, and the high - quality apples have a significant price advantage. The main price runs near 8600 [3]. - **Jujube**: As the harvest time approaches, the long - short game intensifies, and it is bearish in the long - term [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the soda ash price runs weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on the rebound [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The production and sales performance is average, and the logic of the off - peak season in the peak season continues. It is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to pay attention to the raw material price increase situation during the peak production season and wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply increases, and with cost support, the price oscillates between 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The supply increases, and polysilicon is under pressure. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices when the price returns to the lower edge of the range, and pay attention to the implementation of capacity storage [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is weak, the fundamentals maintain a tight balance, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 7 - 7.5 million [3].

【现货】 五大材库存+128万吨至1600万吨；其中螺纹+57万吨至660万吨；热卷+32万吨至412万吨；考虑节后需 求恢复，目前产量高于表需，预计库存维持同比增加，但环比下降走势。 【观点】 【供应】 9-10月铁水产量维持高位，但十一假期因环保因素，稍有减产。虽然铁水同比增长明显，但五大材产量 同比持平，增量铁水更多流向钢坯和非五大材。截止8日，五大材产量863万吨，环比-4万吨。其中螺纹 产量203万吨，环比-3.6万吨，近四周螺纹产量均值206万吨，低于220万吨左右的表需。热卷产量323万 吨，环比-1.4万吨，热卷产量维持高位，与表需基本持平。 【需求】 螺纹表需同比下降，环比有季节性改善。假期因素表需-95万吨至146万吨；热卷表需同比增加，环比基 本持平，假期热卷表需回落。-34万吨至291万吨。剔除假期因素，目前五大材产量低于表需，库存压力 不大。 【库存】 现货弱势下跌。上海螺纹-40元/吨3060元/吨，1月合约基差-23元/吨，螺纹基差走弱；热卷-40元/吨至 3320元每吨，基差50元/吨，热卷基差稍强。 【成本和利润】 成本端，10月8日钢联样本煤矿开工率和日产因国庆长假下降，日 ...