| 日期 | 沪锌现货进口盈利 | 沪锌期货进口盈利 | 锌保税库premium | LME C-3M | LME锌库存 | LME锌注销仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/24 | -217.88 | -833.44 | 140 | -33 | 182300 | 31700 | | 2025/04/25 | -150.12 | -851.44 | 140 | -35 | 180050 | 29575 | | 2025/04/28 | -52.89 | -707.36 | 140 | -36 | 179325 | 29525 | | 2025/04/29 | -65.03 | -746.91 | 140 | -35 | 177550 | 31125 | | 2025/04/30 | -4.26 | -777.42 | 140 | -35 | 175275 | 31000 | | 变化 | 60.77 | -30.51 | 0 | 0 | -2275 | -125 | 本周锌价格重心反弹后宽幅震荡，关税情绪改善。供应端，本周国内T ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - This week, due to the tightening supply of crude oil and rising oil prices, asphalt prices increased. Shandong's spot prices rose slightly, and the futures market strengthened marginally. With low production and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories continued to decline while social inventories increased, resulting in overall stable inventories and a marginal improvement. The supply in the north is tight, while that in the east and south is relatively abundant. The positives include low inventory levels, tight and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in April production schedules. The negatives are the lack of demand improvement, weak spot prices in the east and south, and price cuts by Sinopec. The fundamentals have slightly improved, with short - term prices remaining weakly stable. Inventories are expected to gradually increase at a low level in the first half of the year. It is recommended to monitor actual inventory conditions and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil, and it is advisable to consider long positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract [1] Group 2: Data Summary Spot and Futures Prices - From April 24th to April 30th, the low - end spot prices in East China and Shandong remained unchanged at 3520 yuan/ton and 3370 yuan/ton respectively, and the low - end spot price in Northeast China remained at 3750 yuan/ton. The futures price decreased by 22 yuan to 3408 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis increased by 22 to 112 [1] Other Prices - The FOB price from South Korea to East China remained at 463, and the RMB - converted price decreased by 1 to 4076 yuan. The price of Shandong coker feedstock remained at 4260 yuan [1] Production and Inventory - The daily asphalt production is 6.3 (+0) million tons. This week, factory inventories decreased while social inventories increased, with overall stable inventories [1] Market Conditions - Shandong's spot prices remained stable, with a market reference price of 3510 - 3700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures market fluctuated, and crack spread profits were at a moderate level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong increased slightly [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets have been highly volatile, and non - ferrous metals may maintain a volatile trend after the holiday [1] - The overall demand for non - ferrous metals is affected by factors such as trade wars and global economic slowdown, and the upward space for prices is limited [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review**: During the domestic holiday, copper prices fluctuated significantly and declined slightly. After filling the downward gap, it returned to a volatile state [3] - **Fundamentals**: The spot market of copper concentrates remains sluggish, TC continues to decline, and the pressure on smelters is increasing. The supply - demand fundamentals are still relatively tight, with significant inventory build - up in New York but significant inventory reduction in China and a decrease in LME inventory [3] - **Price Outlook**: After the holiday, Shanghai copper may maintain a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to conduct cautious trading within the range of 74,500 - 78,500 [3] 3.2 Aluminum - **Market Review**: The price continued to decline after filling the downward gap and then maintained a volatile state [3] - **Fundamentals**: The supply of bauxite is gradually improving, and the price is gradually decreasing. Alumina is in a state of mixed production, resumption, and reduction. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, but the downstream processing start - up rate is decreasing [3] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to weaken in a volatile manner after the holiday. It is recommended to moderately short at high prices within the range of 19,500 - 20,300 [3] 3.3 Zinc - **Market Review**: After filling the downward gap, it returned to a volatile state [3] - **Fundamentals**: The domestic zinc ore processing fee increase has slowed down significantly. Although there are smelter maintenance plans, the impact on refined zinc production is expected to be limited. The downstream consumption is expected to be flat [3] - **Price Outlook**: The zinc price is expected to be weakly volatile after the holiday, with a reference operating range of 22,000 - 23,000 [3] 3.4 Lead - **Market Review**: After filling the downward gap, it weakened [3] - **Fundamentals**: The profit of secondary lead has been partially repaired but is still in a loss state. The supply of secondary raw materials is tight, but the primary supply remains at a high level. April is the off - season for lead - acid batteries, and the start - up rate has decreased [3] - **Price Outlook**: The market may continue to maintain a volatile pattern after the holiday, and it is recommended to conduct trading within the range of 16,500 - 17,000 [3] 3.5 Nickel - **Market Review**: The price was weakly volatile before the holiday. After filling the downward gap, it weakened [3] - **Fundamentals**: The PNBP policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the domestic trade ore price may be prone to rise. The supply of refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the demand for nickel - iron is supported by the high production of stainless steel, but the oversupply pattern has expanded [3] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to observe. The reference operating range for the main contract is 120,000 - 127,000 [3] 3.6 Tin - **Market Review**: After stabilizing, it showed a sideways volatile state [4] - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore raw materials is tight, but there are strong expectations for mine resumption. The downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which will support demand. The overall inventory is at a medium level [4] - **Price Outlook**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase. It is recommended to conduct trading within the range of 240,000 - 270,000 for the SHFE tin 06 contract, and continue to pay attention to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [4] 3.7 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: It continued the downward trend and accelerated the decline after breaking through the support level [127] - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output increased, and the factory and port inventories increased. The electricity price decreased in May, and the cost decreased. Some enterprises in Xinjiang plan to reduce production, while enterprises in the southwest are gradually resuming production, but the low silicon price limits the progress [4] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile [4] 3.8 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The downward trend remained unchanged, and it continued to decline at a low level [4] - **Fundamentals**: The production in April decreased, and the import of lithium salt is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is good, but it is affected by the US tariff policy. The supply pressure is large, and the spot supply is becoming more relaxed [4] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to continue the weakly volatile pattern. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy when the price is high and continue to pay attention to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production arrangement of cathode material factories [4] 3.9 Macro - economic Data - **China**: In April, the official manufacturing PMI fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.4. The Caixin manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.4, the lowest in three months [14][15] - **US**: In April, the ISM manufacturing PMI shrank to the largest extent in five months, and the first - quarter GDP decreased by 0.3%. However, the non - farm employment increased by 177,000, significantly better than expected, and the unemployment rate remained stable [18][19][20]

Economic Data Overview - The U.S. economic data released during the holiday period showed mixed results, with weak GDP and manufacturing data initially clouding growth prospects [2] - The U.S. Q1 GDP preliminary value declined by 0.3%, contrary to the expected growth of 0.3% [2] - The U.S. April ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, the lowest since November 2024, but was above the market expectation of 48 [2] - U.S. non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2] Copper Market Dynamics - Chile's copper production in March increased by 9.1% year-on-year, with a significant month-on-month rise of 20%, reaching 477,049 tons [3] - Domestic demand for refined copper remains strong, leading to a decrease in domestic refined copper social inventory compared to the previous year [3] - LME copper inventory has been declining, currently around 197,300 tons, while COMEX copper inventory has been accumulating, reaching 152,616 tons as of May 5 [4] Trade and Market Sentiment - Global trade tensions show signs of easing, although uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies persist [2] - The market sentiment improved slightly due to better-than-expected employment and inflation data, alleviating some recession fears [2] - LME copper prices experienced fluctuations, with a notable drop of over 3% on April 30, marking the largest monthly decline since June 2022 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for key sectors such as gold and copper [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent pullback in gold prices does not alter the long-term upward trend, supported by ongoing demand and supply dynamics in the copper and aluminum markets [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators, such as U.S. employment data and central bank policies, which influence commodity prices [4][21]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.49%, while the Shenzhen Component decreased by 0.17%. The non-ferrous metals index underperformed, dropping 0.81% [5][4]. - Precious metals saw a decline, with gold prices down 2.49% and silver down 2.54% week-on-week [4][14]. - Year-to-date performance shows precious metals up 31.29%, while aluminum and energy metals have seen slight declines [9][4]. Price Changes - Industrial metals experienced varied price changes, with copper down 0.09%, aluminum up 0.14%, and zinc down 1.47% [14][4]. - Lithium prices have decreased, with battery-grade lithium carbonate down 2.19% [17][4]. Key Company Valuations - Notable companies in the sector include Zijin Mining, with a projected PE ratio of 22 for 2023, and China Aluminum, with a PE ratio of 15 [18][19]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable earnings and dividend attributes, such as Baosteel and Shandong Steel [4][19]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Copper demand remains stable, with operating rates for copper rods at 79.9%. However, the supply side shows a decrease in social inventory by 5.2% [29][4]. - Aluminum production is constrained by lower operating rates in downstream processing, with a current operating rate of 61.65% [45][4]. Growth Cycle Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in sectors with stable supply-demand dynamics, particularly in new energy manufacturing [4][4].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/04/30 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/04/23 180 1237 171611 44965 -24.87 699.82 88.0 103.0 -19.12 205250 77825 2025/04/24 175 1117 171611 42964 -300.46 737.71 88.0 103.0 6.43 203425 76050 2025/04/25 180 1130 116753 41588 -215.41 591.25 90.0 110.0 2.41 203450 77250 2025/04/28 175 881 116753 36884 -303.45 943.11 93.0 115.0 28.60 202800 70775 2025/04/29 205 1082 116753 34042 -121.50 784.42 94.0 115.0 -9.76 202500 71500 变 ...

| 然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 寇帝斯 Z0021810 | 2025年4月30日 | | | | | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品中 | 4月29日 | 4月28日 | 演讲 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 14550 | 14550 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -85 | -180 | વેર | 52.78% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14200 | 14300 | -100 | -0.70% | | | 非标价差 | -435 | -430 | G5 | -1.16% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 52.30 | 52.05 | 0.25 | 0.48% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 58.25 | 58.00 | 0.25 | 0.43% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12800 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of energy - chemical commodities on April 30, 2025, showed price fluctuations. Most varieties are expected to remain volatile in the short term. For example, oil prices declined significantly due to factors such as increased US crude oil inventories and OPEC +'s potential acceleration of production increases. Other commodities like fuel oil, asphalt, and polyester also had their own price movements and influencing factors [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On April 30, WTI June contract closed down $1.63 to $60.42 per barrel, a 2.63% decline; Brent June contract closed down $1.61 to $64.25 per barrel, a 2.44% decline; SC2506 closed at 478.0 yuan per barrel, down 10.1 yuan per barrel, a 2.07% decline. API data showed that as of the week ending April 25, US API crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 674,000 barrels. Analysts predicted a further increase of 500,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories, the fifth consecutive week of inventory growth. OPEC + members may propose to accelerate production increases in June, and Kazakhstan's crude oil exports in Q1 increased by 7% year - on - year, weakening the implementation of production - cut agreements. The market priced in the negative impact of accelerated production increases in advance, causing oil prices to fall. The market is expected to be volatile during the May Day holiday [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On April 30, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.26% at 2,969 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2506 closed down 0.86% at 3,456 yuan per ton. It is expected that the reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market in the short term. High - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power - generation demand, but weak procurement demand in April and the arrival of Middle - East supplies at the end of April will put pressure on the market. It is recommended to mainly go long on crack spreads [1]. - **Asphalt**: On April 30, the main asphalt contract BU2506 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.53% at 3,430 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, refinery production in May is expected to increase month - on - month as processing profits recover, especially for local refineries. In terms of demand, the northern market demand is gradually being released, and pre - holiday stockpiling is good, but the terminal project start - up rate is still low, and the sales volume of modified plants has not increased significantly. The short - term absolute price of BU is expected to remain stable, and the previous crack - spread repair strategy can continue to be held, but attention should be paid to the pressure from increased supply [2]. - **Polyester**: On April 30, TA509 closed at 4,440 yuan per ton, down 0.89%; EG2509 closed at 4,187 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. PTA social inventories have been continuously decreasing, and planned maintenance in May is increasing, providing some price support. Ethylene glycol inventories have slightly increased, and due to factors such as postponed maintenance of oil - based units and concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels in April, the monthly de - stocking has narrowed. Downstream demand has some support in the short term, but there is a holiday expectation after the May Day holiday, so the price of ethylene glycol is expected to be volatile [2]. - **Rubber**: On April 30, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 95 yuan per ton to 14,635 yuan per ton; the main 20 - number rubber contract NR closed down 35 yuan per ton to 12,235 yuan per ton; the main butadiene rubber contract BR closed down 135 yuan per ton to 11,225 yuan per ton. As of the week ending April 27, the general trade inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 383,100 tons, an increase of 4,900 tons from the previous week, a 1.30% increase; the inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 94,900 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous period, a 0.85% increase. The total inventory increased by 5,700 tons. Rubber supply is progressing well due to good weather, and downstream enterprises will have more holiday days during the May Day holiday than last year, so the fundamentals are weak, and the rubber price is expected to be weakly volatile [3][4]. - **Methanol**: On April 30, the spot price in Taicang was 2,437 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,155 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between $259 - 263 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between $337 - 342 per ton. In terms of supply, domestic supply will be stable in the future, and imports will gradually increase, with an expected increase in overall supply. In terms of demand, the maintenance of MTO units has been postponed, and traditional downstream demand changes are relatively limited. It is expected that the total demand in May will remain relatively stable. Overall, supply is expected to increase in May, demand will remain stable, inventory will no longer decrease, and the support for spot prices will weaken, with the basis expected to decline [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On April 30, the mainstream price of East - China drawn polypropylene was between 7,200 - 7,340 yuan per ton. In terms of profits, the gross profit of oil - based PP was 54.14 yuan per ton, the gross profit of coal - based PP production was 795.6 yuan per ton, the gross profit of methanol - based PP production was 936.67 yuan per ton, the gross profit of propane - dehydrogenated PP production was - 868.35 yuan per ton, and the gross profit of externally - purchased propylene - based PP production was - 99.67 yuan per ton. For polyethylene, the mainstream price of HDPE was 7,864 yuan per ton, the mainstream price of LDPE was 8,387 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of LLDPE was 7,828 yuan per ton. The gross profit of oil - based polyethylene was - 125 yuan per ton, and the gross profit of coal - based polyethylene was 1,158 yuan per ton. May is the off - season for demand, and downstream enterprise start - up rates will slow down. The light - hydrocarbon production route is greatly affected by import tariffs, and production is expected to decline to some extent. Downstream inventory levels are not high, and rigid demand provides some price support, but due to the high supply level in the past five years, the price increase space is limited, and polyolefin futures are expected to remain narrowly volatile [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On April 30, the market price of PVC in East - China was moderately weak, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,720 - 4,860 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,980 - 5,200 yuan per ton. The market price in North - China was weakly adjusted, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,740 - 4,820 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,950 - 5,150 yuan per ton. The market price in South - China was moderately weak, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,830 - 4,950 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,980 - 5,050 yuan per ton. Real - estate construction will enter the off - season, which will reduce the demand for PVC downstream pipes and profiles, and the start - up rate will decline slightly. Exports may also decline as India's BIS certification implementation time approaches. Overall, the PVC fundamentals will be loose in May, inventory pressure will increase, the spot price will be relatively weak, and although the main contract V2509 has peak - season expectations, its upward space is limited due to weak spot prices, and the price is expected to remain low and volatile, with the basis weakening [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical varieties on April 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the historical quantile of the latest basis rate, as well as the price changes of spot and futures prices and basis changes [7]. 3.3 Market News - API data showed that as of the week ending April 25, US API crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 674,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels. Analysts predicted a further increase of 500,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories, the fifth consecutive week of inventory growth [9]. - OPEC + sources revealed that multiple members may propose to accelerate production increases in June. Kazakhstan's crude oil exports in Q1 increased by 7% year - on - year, weakening the implementation of production - cut agreements. Analysts believe that OPEC +'s proposal to increase production is a bad timing choice in the current weak market demand environment [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing - price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., to show the price trends of these varieties over the years [11]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc., to reflect the relationship between spot and futures prices [25]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including spreads between different contract months, to help analyze the price differences between different contracts [37]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical commodities, such as the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, the spread between ethylene glycol and PTA, etc., to analyze the price relationships between different varieties [55]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production - profit charts of some energy - chemical varieties, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, LLDPE production profit, etc., to reflect the profitability of these varieties [63]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research. She is a master from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won the "Outstanding Analyst" awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Her team has won the Excellent Industrial Service Team Awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022, and the Best Industrial Product Analysts awards from the Futures Daily in 2023 and 2024. She has more than ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research, serves many listed companies and well - known domestic enterprises, and has obtained the senior analyst qualification from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. She is also a regular commentator for media such as First Financial and Futures Daily [69]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She holds a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University. She has won the Outstanding Energy - Chemical Analyst Awards from the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2022 and 2023, and the Best Industrial Product Analyst titles from the Futures Daily in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Her team has won the Excellent Industrial Service Team Awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022. She has in - depth research on the energy industry chain and is often interviewed by media such as CCTV Finance and 21st Century Business Herald [70]. - **Di Yilin**: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She is a master in finance. She has won the "New - Star Analyst" award from the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2023, the Excellent Author award from China Mold Information magazine in 2023, and the "Best Industrial Product Futures Analyst" title from the Futures Daily in 2024. Her team has won the Best Energy - Chemical Industry Futures Research Team Award from the Futures Daily in 2024. She is mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, and is good at data analysis [71]. - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC. He holds a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China), is an intermediate economist, has many years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, and has passed the CFA Level III exam [72].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Fuel oil: ななな (not clear from the given information) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: 文文文 (not clear from the given information) [1] - Asphalt: 文女女 (not clear from the given information) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] Core View of the Report - The international oil price has declined, and the SC2506 contract fell 2.14% during the Asian session. After experiencing trade war-induced declines and corrective rebounds, the oil price has entered a stable state. Attention should be paid to possible supply and demand changes. Hold low-cost bearish option combinations to hedge against oil price decline risks. The supply and demand of high-sulfur fuel oil have weakened marginally, while the cracking of low-sulfur fuel oil has been boosted. The supply and demand of asphalt have improved marginally, and it is supported to run in a strong and volatile manner. The overseas PG market is still supported by chemical demand, while the domestic market is under pressure, and the market maintains a volatile state. [2][3][4][5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - The international oil price declined, and the SC2506 contract fell 2.14% during the Asian session. After trade war-induced declines and corrective rebounds, it entered a stable state. [2] - On the demand side, the strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking has driven the repair of overseas refinery profits. The sustainability of refinery start-up demand support during the approaching peak oil product consumption season should be noted. Before there are clear signs of improvement in the Sino-US trade war, the room for bullish demand is expected to be limited. [2] - On the supply side, OPEC+ has increased production, and the supply disturbance risks caused by the easing of the Russia-Ukraine, Iran nuclear, and Palestine-Israel situations have weakened with marginal room for development. Last week, crude oil stocks increased, and refined oil stocks decreased, resulting in a further increase in total petroleum inventories. [2] - Hold low-cost bearish option combinations to hedge against oil price decline risks. [2] Fuel Oil - Russia's fuel oil shipments increased last week, and Singapore's fuel oil inventory continued to rise. Today, FU warehouse receipts increased by 4,950 tons. The supply and demand of high-sulfur fuel oil have weakened marginally, and the strength of FU cracking has loosened after reaching a high level. [3] - The 200,000-barrel-per-day residue catalytic cracking gasoline unit of Nigeria's Dangote refinery has entered maintenance. The strengthening of gasoline cracking has boosted the cracking of the main product, low-sulfur fuel oil. After the LU warehouse receipts increased by 31,000 tons, the May contract resumed its downward trend. [3] Asphalt - At the end of the month, some refineries in Shandong stopped producing asphalt, leading to a shortage of supply. Before the holiday, downstream stocking demand increased. The weekly asphalt shipments were 442,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 75,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 173,000 tons. [4] - The latest inventory data shows that the inventories of 54 sample refineries and 104 traders have both declined. With the marginal improvement in supply and demand, BU is supported to run in a strong and volatile manner. Today, SC declined, and BU showed relatively strong performance among oil products, with a significant strengthening of the cracking spread. [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas PG market is still supported by chemical demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the end-of-month CP. [5] - Domestic PDH plants are gradually shutting down, and the operating rate is expected to continue to decline. Middle and late arrivals at the terminal are expected, resulting in a temporary oversupply of imported gas. The domestic market is under pressure. [5] - The recent weakening of crude oil has limited the upward momentum of the market, and it maintains a volatile state. [5]

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月29日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 260200 | 263000 | -2800 | -1.06% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 800 | 1000 | -200 | -20.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 260700 | 263500 | -2800 | -1.06% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -171.99 | -169.00 | -2.99 | -1.77% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -10657.77 | -8039.09 | -2618.68 | -32.57% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8. ...