Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in coking coal and coke futures prices is primarily driven by market speculation regarding potential tax increases in Mongolia and the need for price correction after significant declines earlier this year [1][2][8]. Group 1: Price Movements - On June 4, coking coal futures rose to 772 CNY/ton, marking a 7.19% increase, while coke futures reached 1374 CNY/ton, with a 5.72% rise [1]. - On June 5, coking coal futures settled at 757 CNY/ton, reflecting a more modest increase of 1.68% [1]. - Coking coal futures have seen a cumulative decline of over 42% since the beginning of the year, dropping from around 1230 CNY/ton to 709 CNY/ton [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal supply remains ample, with domestic production increasing and coal inventories rising significantly [5][6]. - From January to April 2025, China's industrial raw coal output reached 1.58 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with Shanxi province contributing notably [5]. - The overall market is characterized by excess supply, with high coal and coke inventories and a seasonal decline in terminal demand [6][8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent price increases are viewed as a reaction to market sentiment and a correction of the basis rather than a fundamental shift in supply-demand dynamics [8][9]. - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may lead to cautious purchasing behavior from coking enterprises due to production losses [8]. - Future price movements are expected to be limited, with a focus on monitoring the recovery of spot prices and the cost of coking coal warehouse receipts [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices are oscillating strongly. In the medium - long term, crude oil will maintain a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and supply - demand surplus [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - Iran's Foreign Minister is "not sure" about approaching an agreement with the US. While US President Trump said they are "very close" to a deal, which may be reached in the "coming weeks" [3] - After the US court ruled the tariff illegal, oil prices rose and then fell. The ruling boosted market risk - appetite and eased concerns about global economic slowdown. The White House will appeal the decision. The possible new sanctions on Russia led to a slight increase in oil prices, but the expected OPEC+ production increase in July offset some of this impact [3] - The OPEC+ ministerial meeting did not adjust the oil production policy and plans to use 2025 production as the benchmark for 2027. The potential production increase plans of eight countries will be discussed on Saturday. Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to maintain production after the July increase [4] 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: In the week of May 23, US crude oil exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day, and domestic production increased by 900 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day [4] - EIA report: In the week of May 23, US commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels, a decrease of 0.63%. Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels, an increase of 0.2% [4] - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US refined oil products was 19.897 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.22% compared to the same period last year [4] - In the week of May 23, US commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.351 million barrels per day, an increase of 262,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased, with production from major refineries rising and that from local refineries falling. The sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, while that of local refineries decreased [4] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices oscillated. OPEC+ is discussing a large - scale production increase in July without a final decision. The fifth round of US - Iran negotiations ended without a conclusive result [5] - Fundamentally, global refined oil inventories decreased this week. US commercial crude inventories increased seasonally, with absolute inventories lower than the historical average, and gasoline and diesel inventories increased slightly [5] - On the supply side, the number of US crude oil drilling rigs decreased significantly, and OPEC's planned production increase was in line with expectations. On the demand side, global refinery profits declined slightly but remained high year - on - year. US refinery operating rates increased slightly, the summer travel season is approaching, global flight numbers are increasing, and the operating rate of domestic refineries is recovering [5]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of lithium and silicon have reached new lows since their listing, reflecting a deteriorating supply-demand relationship in the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries [1][2]. Group 1: Industrial Silicon - On May 23, industrial silicon futures fell below 7800 yuan/ton, hitting a low of 7795 yuan/ton, marking a 28% decline year-to-date [2][3]. - Since its listing in 2022, industrial silicon prices have dropped nearly 60% from a peak close to 20,000 yuan/ton, with the latest closing price at 7915 yuan/ton [3]. - High inventory levels persist, with SMM reporting a total social inventory of 582,000 tons, and production recovery in various regions is expected to maintain downward pressure on prices [3][4]. - The forecast for 2024 indicates industrial silicon production will reach 5.361 million tons, a 42.76% increase from 2023, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [4]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures also faced oversupply issues, with prices hitting a new low of 60,280 yuan/ton, just shy of the 60,000 yuan mark [6]. - As of May 23, the main contract for lithium carbonate closed at 60,960 yuan/ton, down 1.65% [6]. - The market is characterized by high overall inventory levels, with upstream producers facing significant pressure and many lithium salt manufacturers reducing output [7][8]. - In April, domestic lithium carbonate prices fell, with battery-grade prices dropping from 73,800 yuan/ton to 67,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.88% [7]. - The second quarter is expected to continue the trend of oversupply, with both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories remaining high [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new round of production increase plan has pushed crude oil to increase positions and decline again, and polyester has followed. Polyolefins continue to focus on short - selling opportunities [1] - The mid - term supply - demand surplus logic of crude oil always exists, and short - term geopolitical factors focus on the fifth round of US - Iran negotiations on Friday. The next time node driven by mid - term supply surplus is the OPEC+ monthly meeting on June 1st [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The news of OPEC+ discussing large - scale production increase in July pushed crude oil to increase positions and form a long negative line in the afternoon. The mid - term supply - demand surplus logic exists, and there is a tendency for a new Iran nuclear agreement. The short - term geopolitical focus is on the US - Iran fifth - round negotiation on Friday. The next time node driven by mid - term supply surplus is the OPEC+ monthly meeting on June 1st [1] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of crude oil is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a shock. Today, it increased positions and formed a long negative line, and the end of the session accelerated the decline. The short - term may test the previous low. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [1][2] Styrene (EB) - Logic: There is pressure from the decline of crude oil at the cost end. At the supply end, the ethylene plant maintenance is restored, new production capacity is put into operation in the second quarter, and the supply is expected to increase strongly under the current high profit of styrene [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and formed a long negative line. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to yesterday's high [5] PX - Logic: PX profit is at a low level, the device is still in the maintenance period, the downstream PTA start - up rate is increasing, the demand is improving, and the short - term fundamentals are good. However, after the decline of crude oil at the cost end, the cost logic dominates the market [7][10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PX is in an upward trend. Today, it decreased positions and formed a long negative line with the decline of crude oil. The short - term support refers to the low point on May 13th. Wait for the opportunity to short after breaking the support in the hourly - cycle strategy [10] PTA - Logic: The supply - end devices of PTA have increased, and at the same time, the polyester load and textile start - up rate at the demand end have also increased. The short - term fundamentals have improved, but after the decline of crude oil at the cost end, the cost logic dominates the market [11][14] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PTA is in an upward trend. Today, it decreased positions and formed a long negative line with the decline of crude oil. The short - term support refers to the low point on May 13th. Wait for the opportunity to short after breaking the support in the hourly - cycle strategy [14] PP - Logic: Last week, the fault shutdown of Hengli's ethylene plant involved 2% of PP production capacity, and the actual impact was limited. After the expectation of demand improvement brought by the Sino - US easing, the actual export profit has narrowed, and the short - term export demand is difficult to have obvious increments. In the future, it will still face the supply pressure brought by the restart of the device and the cost pressure brought by the decline of crude oil [18] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined without changing the downward path. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with the short - term pressure and take - profit referring to yesterday's high [18] Methanol - Logic: The domestic start - up rate decreased slightly month - on - month, the traditional demand fell to the year - on - year low, the port inventory remained stable at a low level, but it is facing the arrival pressure of the increase in Iranian shipments in early May, and the port inventory accumulation expectation is strong [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure of methanol is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined, continuing the downward path. The strategy is to transfer the 15 - minute - level short positions yesterday to the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to the 2285 line [20] Rubber - Logic: The short - term emotional bullishness of Sino - US easing has basically been digested. Currently, tire enterprises have the highest inventory year - on - year, the start - up rate is at a year - on - year low, downstream tires are not subject to equal tariffs, there is no expectation of export demand recovery, and the EU has launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires, involving about 1.2 billion tires. At the supply end, the implementation effect of Thailand's suspension of the opening - cut order is not good, the production areas are gradually opening - cut, and the increment expectation is strong without abnormal weather, still showing a weak supply - demand expectation [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of rubber is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a shock. Today, it fluctuated within the day. Recently, the trading volume at the upper edge of the shock range was insufficient, and it was difficult to break through. The upper pressure still refers to the high point on April 8th. Recently, it is still a narrow - range shock to repair the oversold situation by trading time for space. The hourly - cycle strategy is to short at the upper edge of the range [24] PVC - Logic: The start - up rate is the same as that of previous years, and there is an expectation of an increase in the start - up rate after the maintenance season. The terminal real - estate demand is still insufficient, and the expectation of strong supply and weak demand continues [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of PVC is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined. The short - term pressure still focuses on the 5015 line. The hourly - cycle strategy is to look for the opportunity to short when a reversal pattern appears [27] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The start - up rate of downstream polyester has increased, and the demand has improved. However, after the digestion of the unexpected shutdown of Hengli's ethylene plant last week, the actual involved production capacity is about 6%, but the expected shutdown time is short and the impact is limited. In the future, it will face the supply pressure brought by the large - scale release of ethylene plant production capacity [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of EG is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the short - term support below refers to the 4315 line. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and hold short positions in the 15 - minute level, with the stop - loss referring to the 4455 line [30] Plastic - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of plastic is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined. The short - term support below refers to the 7100 line. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and hold short positions in the 15 - minute cycle, with the take - profit referring to the 7225 high [31][33] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: Last week, the fault shutdown of Hengli's ethylene plant involved about 2% of butadiene production capacity, and the actual impact was limited. After the digestion of emotions, it will face the pressure of increased butadiene supply brought by the large - scale release of ethylene plant production capacity in the future. The butadiene storage capacity is low, and the price is likely to fall sharply after inventory accumulation, putting pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost end [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of synthetic rubber is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. Today, it fluctuated within the day. The short - term support still focuses on the low point on May 13th. The strategy is to hold short positions in the 15 - minute level, with the stop - loss referring to the 12300 line [35][37]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core View The fundamental pattern of supply surplus in the lithium carbonate market remains unchanged. Although the futures market has rebounded in the short - term due to improved macro - sentiment and expectations of energy storage exports, the upside space is limited, and the spot trading volume is average [1][2] Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On May 15, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2507 opened at 64,680 yuan/ton and closed at 64,120 yuan/ton, a 0.83% decline from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 230,077 lots, and the open interest was 289,360 lots, an increase of 12,404 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of all contracts was 480,821 lots, a decrease of 3,011 lots, and the total trading volume decreased by 194,070 lots. The overall speculation degree was 0.58. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 52 lots to 36,664 lots [1] - According to SMM data, on May 15, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,800 - 65,800 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,650 - 63,650 yuan/ton, both up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Some lithium salt enterprises have carried out maintenance or production cuts, with the weekly output decreasing by 1,115 tons to 16,600 tons, but the production cut is less than expected, and the output is still at a high level [1] - The latest inventory is 131,920 tons, a slight increase of 351 tons from the previous period, with a significant increase in lithium salt factory inventories [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Range trading, sell - hedging on rallies - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear - spread options [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the取值 range being [-2, 2] for integer values, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3] Report's Core View - The supply-demand surplus of lithium carbonate continues, and the weak pattern may be difficult to change [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - For the 2507 contract, the closing price is 65,260, down 700 from T-1, 3,040 from T-5, etc.; the trading volume is 103,979, down 10,559 from T-1; the open interest is 256,291, up 11,562 from T-1 [1] - For the 2509 contract, the closing price is 66,520, down 700 from T-1; the trading volume is 17,826, up 4,780 from T-1; the open interest is 42,358, up 6,401 from T-1 [1] Basis - The basis of spot - 2507 is 1,840, down 150 from T-1; the basis of spot - 2509 is 580, down 150 from T-1; the basis of 2507 - 2509 is -1,260, unchanged from T-1 [1] Raw Materials - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 767, down 6 from T-1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,500, down 25 from T-1 [1] Lithium Salts and Related Products - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 67,100, down 850 from T-1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 65,400, down 800 from T-1; etc. [1] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 67,184 yuan/ton, down 845 yuan/ton from the previous working day [1] - BYD's new energy vehicle sales in April 2025 were 380,100, a year - on - year increase of 21.33%; from January to April 2025, cumulative sales were 1,380,900, a year - on - year increase of 46.98% [1][3] - During the May Day holiday in 2025, the national consumer market was prosperous, with the sales of key retail and catering enterprises increasing by 6.3% year - on - year. The application volume for automobile trade - in subsidies exceeded 3 million from the beginning of 2025 to May 5, 0:00 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The overall situation shows that the downward shift of the spot transaction center has led to a decline in ore prices. Although there are maintenance operations in lithium salts, there is no reduction in the ore end, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. With the current transactions mainly for rigid demand, a large number of new warehouse receipts are registered, and the warehouse receipts continue to increase. Under the weak macro - sentiment and fundamental situation, lithium prices may still have room to fall [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On April 28, 2025, the main contract 2505 of lithium carbonate opened at 68,080 yuan/ton and closed at 66,960 yuan/ton, with a daily closing price down 2.07% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 145,735 lots, and the open interest was 246,197 lots, an increase of 28,827 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 393,166 lots, a decrease of 3,011 lots from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of the day's contracts increased by 42,206 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the overall speculation degree was 0.49. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 32,847 lots, an increase of 1,052 lots from the previous day [1]. Spot Market - On April 28, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was reported at 67,400 - 70,300 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was reported at 66,650 - 67,550 yuan/ton, also down 950 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Although the weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased slightly due to some lithium salt enterprises' maintenance or production cuts, the overall production cut was less than expected, and the production was still at a high level, which could not substantially change the oversupply pattern. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate has dropped significantly. The downstream material factories have completed their inventory preparations before the May Day holiday, with weak purchasing willingness. The subsequent demand is difficult to meet the previous incremental expectations, while the supply side is still operating at a high level, dragging the lithium carbonate price down. The low - price transactions of ore at the raw material end also fail to support the lithium carbonate price [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sell on rallies for hedging. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear spread options [3].