Group 1: Trade Performance Overview - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year (in USD), up 3.9 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Imports rose by 7.4% year-on-year (in USD), an increase of 6.1 percentage points compared to August[4] - The overall trade data for September exceeded expectations, indicating a potential for sustained recovery despite ongoing trade tensions with the US[5] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The growth in exports is supported by diversification into non-US markets and upgrades in the industrial chain, with significant contributions from the EU and emerging economies[5] - High-tech products, including integrated circuits and transportation equipment, led the export growth, reflecting a shift towards higher value-added sectors[6] - The "de-involution" policy has positively impacted export prices, with noticeable price recovery in steel and electronics, while labor-intensive products saw price declines[6] Group 3: Import Insights - The surge in import growth was primarily driven by rising international commodity prices, particularly in technology-related sectors like aircraft and integrated circuits[7] - Although there was a marginal recovery in the import of raw materials, the increase was largely price-driven rather than volume-driven, indicating potential short-term volatility[7] - The sustainability of the import growth remains uncertain, as domestic demand recovery appears weak[7] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Future risks include potential policy changes that may not meet expectations and unexpected shifts in the domestic economic landscape[8] - Export fluctuations could also pose risks to the overall trade outlook, necessitating close monitoring of external factors[8]

Group 1 - The core argument is that Trump's threat of imposing a 100% tariff on China reveals the anxiety and emotional reactions of the U.S. in response to the changing global power dynamics, highlighting a misjudgment of the current situation based on outdated perceptions of U.S. dominance [1] - Imposing a 100% tariff on China would effectively act as a self-imposed embargo on the world's most efficient manufacturing hub, leading to increased costs in the U.S. and exacerbating inflation issues [3] - The U.S. faces significant challenges regarding rare earth resources, which are crucial for high-end military technology and green energy industries, with China's manufacturing capabilities being essential for global supply chains [3][5] Group 2 - China has tightly linked its rare earth controls to the global manufacturing system, creating an economic form of "nuclear deterrence," making it difficult for multinational companies to forgo the Chinese market [5] - Major U.S. companies like Tesla, Apple, and Boeing are heavily reliant on the Chinese market, indicating that they are unlikely to abandon it despite the tensions [5] - The fear on Wall Street regarding the 100% tariff reflects deeper concerns about the future of the U.S. economy, as high tariffs would increase business costs and consumer burdens, particularly affecting middle and lower-income households [6] Group 3 - Historical experience suggests that equality and respect are essential for effective negotiation, and that the U.S. must adopt a pragmatic approach to discussions with China rather than relying on threats [8] - Trump's strategy of coercing China into unfavorable agreements through economic threats is likely to backfire, leading to greater economic losses for the U.S. and damaging its international credibility [8] - The approach of using American consumers and supply chains as leverage against China is unsustainable, and the U.S. may ultimately need to make concessions and return to negotiations with a more respectful attitude [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short - term, copper prices are mainly oscillating weakly due to the enhanced market expectation of an economic downturn caused by Sino - US trade conflicts, although the fundamentals still support copper prices in the medium - term as domestic demand expectations during the "Golden September and Silver October" period are rising while domestic production is expected to decline slightly [6]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - During the National Day holiday, LME copper rose about 5% compared to before the holiday, driven by macro factors such as a 32,000 - person drop in ADP employment data, which strengthened the market's expectation of two Fed rate cuts within the year, and supply - side factors like the shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine and the fermentation of copper mine disruptions. The Shanghai copper main contract rose 4% on the first trading day after the holiday but weakened slightly on the 10th, closing at 85,910 yuan/ton. However, on the Friday night session, copper prices dropped significantly due to Trump's mention of imposing a 100% tariff on China, and are currently at the level of 83,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: The Grasberg mine's output in Q4 2025 is nearly zero, about 200,000 tons less than the original guidance, and its 2026 output may drop about 35% from the original plan. Codelco in Chile had a significant year - on - year decline in August output, BHP's copper mine production disruptions increased, and Teck Resources lowered the production target of its large - scale mines. China's refined copper production in September was 1.121 million tons, a 4.31% month - on - month decrease, and is expected to decline 3.43% month - on - month in October. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has proposed to strictly control the expansion of copper smelting capacity, and there may be a global copper mine supply gap in Q4 [4]. - Demand: After the holiday, the State Grid released some orders, and the resumption of work after the holiday is expected to further improve the downstream operating level, but high copper prices have a certain impact on market activity [4]. - Inventory: Global inventories have started to rise slightly. SMM expects an increase in imported and domestic copper supplies, and high copper prices will suppress downstream purchasing sentiment, so inventories are expected to increase this week [4]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors - On October 10th, the US announced a 100% tariff on China in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items and imposed export controls on all key software, which intensified market concerns about the global economic outlook and led to an increase in risk - aversion sentiment [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut and the expectation of fiscal easing in many countries, along with production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, may slow down the upward pace of Shanghai copper prices due to concerns about whether the Sino - US trade conflict can be alleviated [1] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Shanghai Copper - On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper contract was 85,910, down 840 from the previous day; trading volume was 212,468 lots, an increase of 74,652; open interest was 216,115 lots, a decrease of 5,600; inventory was 29,964 tons, an increase of 261; the Shanghai copper basis was 770, an increase of 1,780 [1] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,680, up 940 from the previous day [1] London Copper - On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,374, down 402.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 31.19, down 6.29; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 74.2, down 19.97 [1] COMEX Copper - On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper contract was 4.845, down 0.24 from the previous day; total inventory was 339,525, an increase of 4,004 [1] Group 4: Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis Supply - There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, causing the China copper concentrate import index to remain negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates; the expected increase in scrap copper supply has led to an initial increase in domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [1] Demand - High copper prices have led downstream buyers to mainly make purchases based on rigid demand [1] Inventory - China's electrolytic copper social inventory has increased compared to last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory has decreased compared to last week, and COMEX copper inventory has increased compared to last week [1] Group 5: Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to mainly establish long positions when prices decline. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 80,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000 for London copper; the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights the re-emergence of the trade war between the US and China, with the US imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting November 1, 2025, and implementing export controls on key software [2][7] - The ongoing trade conflict is seen as a continuation of the trade barriers established since April 2025, which have not been resolved despite multiple rounds of negotiations [2][8][11] - The potential for a spiral escalation in trade tensions is noted, with both sides likely to continue retaliatory measures, impacting various sectors beyond trade [2][12] Group 2 - Short-term market impacts are expected to be manageable, as the A-share market rebounded quickly after previous trade war shocks, indicating investor resilience and experience [2][13] - In the medium term, structural investment opportunities are anticipated, particularly in sectors benefiting from import substitution and potential domestic policy easing [2][13] - Investment recommendations include increasing allocations to defensive sectors such as utilities and banks in the short term, while focusing on strategic technology sectors like nuclear fusion, AI, and semiconductor manufacturing for medium-term opportunities [3][13]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of precious metals, particularly gold, is significantly influenced by the interplay of monetary policy, risk aversion, and geopolitical tensions, especially during escalations in the US-China trade conflict [2][4]. Group 1: Historical Context of Precious Metals Performance - Since 2018, several escalations in the US-China trade conflict have led to increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold prices rising in response to heightened market volatility and geopolitical risks [3]. - Historical data indicates that when global monetary policy becomes more accommodative, particularly with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, it tends to depress the dollar and real interest rates, providing a foundation for rising gold prices [2][4]. - The combination of trade tensions and existing geopolitical risks can significantly enhance the attractiveness of gold, leading to increased capital inflows into the precious metals market [2][4]. Group 2: Current Market Analysis - Current market conditions show a notable increase in risk and uncertainty, with threats of significant tariffs on Chinese goods and ongoing government shutdowns in the US exacerbating trade tensions and economic concerns [5]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December, along with a trend towards more accommodative monetary policy, are likely to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in the short term [6]. - Silver may face weaker performance compared to gold due to potential suppression of industrial demand amid market uncertainties, despite previous significant price increases and existing tightness in the physical silver market [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soybean/Meal**: In the medium - term, with high domestic soybean inventory and expected global supply surplus, the general strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short - term, due to tariff issues, it will mainly trade in a range [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: Medium - term, there is support for oils and fats. Before inventory accumulates and demand shows negative feedback, a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Short - term, due to trade war concerns, it's advisable to wait and see [5][6]. - **Sugar**: With expected increases in production in major northern hemisphere countries and high production in Brazil's central - south region, it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - **Cotton**: Given weak fundamentals and macro - negative impacts, short - term cotton prices are likely to decline [12][13]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, a bearish view on near - term contracts is appropriate. In the medium - term, there may be a rebound during the stocking period. In the long - term, sell on rallies [15][16]. - **Pigs**: In the fourth quarter, there is large supply pressure. For near - term contracts, reduce short positions. After spot prices stabilize, consider a 13 - positive spread strategy. For far - term contracts, maintain a reverse spread strategy [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Information**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans fell due to Sino - US trade concerns. Domestic soybean meal prices rose over the weekend. MYSTEEL predicts this week's domestic soybean crushing volume to be 216.74 million tons. Import soybean costs face both support and pressure [2]. - **Strategy**: Medium - term, sell on rallies; short - term, trade in a range [2][3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10 increased compared to the same period last month. The 2026 average price of crude palm oil is expected to be between 3900 - 4100 Malaysian ringgit per ton. Last Friday, domestic oils and fats prices fell [5]. - **Strategy**: Medium - term, buy on dips; short - term, wait and see [5][6]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Last Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. Brazilian sugar production data shows an increase in the first half of September. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Last Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose first and then fell. Trump announced additional tariffs on Chinese imports, and China responded with counter - measures [12]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, expect price decline [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable over the weekend. Supply is large, and consumption is weak. Egg prices are expected to be weak in early October and may rebound slightly later [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, bearish on near - term contracts; medium - term, expect a rebound; long - term, sell on rallies [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices continued to fall over the weekend, with some areas stabilizing. Supply is abundant, and some farmers are selling pigs actively [18]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions on near - term contracts; consider a 13 - positive spread after spot prices stabilize; maintain a reverse spread for far - term contracts [19].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the impact of the Sino-US trade conflict on various investment varieties, suggesting investors adjust their positions according to the market situation and the development of the trade war, and provides corresponding option strategies for different varieties [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Stocks - **Hong Kong Stocks**: If the trade war is less severe than expected, reduce short - term positions in the Hang Seng Technology Index and wait for better entry points. If it worsens, adopt a barbell strategy of technology (AI/innovative drugs/autonomous control) + dividends and buy technology assets at the right time [3]. - **US Stocks**: Short - term fluctuations are inevitable, but the decline will be less than in April. Reduce short - term positions and wait for better opportunities to enter the US technology stock market [3]. Futures - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Affected by the intensification of the trade war, Treasury bonds may open higher on Monday, but the upward trend may not last. Maintain a view of bottom - side oscillating and bearish [3]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The market has TACO trading expectations, but A - shares are overvalued, especially technology stocks with bubbles, and there is a risk of liquidity. The key lies in the development of the trade war and the government's willingness and strength to maintain stability. Consider buying short - term out - of - the - money put options and November call options [3]. Commodities - **Copper**: Prices are under pressure. If the trade conflict worsens, there may be further decline. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, which will be transmitted to the smelting end. Build positions by selling out - of - the - money put options on the far - month [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices may be affected by short - term negative sentiment, but the long - term trend is bullish. Consider constructing a collar strategy by buying put options and selling out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **European Routes**: The 2510 contract may decline by 2 - 5%, the 2512 contract by about 10%, and the 2602 contract has a risk of significant decline [5]. - **Crude Oil**: There is a 5 - 6% decline in price, and a 10% decline in the most pessimistic scenario. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for short - term speculation [5]. - **Chemicals**: The impact is mainly on ethane and propane. Consider bearish spreads and wait for the market to stabilize before selling options [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Beans and some domestic - priced fresh products are strong, while cotton is weak. Consider buying call options on beans [5]. - **Black Metals**: The direct impact of the trade war on the fundamentals is small, but the valuation may decline. The decline amplitude may be smaller than that of other sectors [5]. - **New Energy and Related Metals** - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price may decline by 5%. Build positions by selling out - of - the - money put options and consider buying deep - out - of - the - money put options for tail protection [6]. - **Nickel**: The price is under pressure and may fluctuate. Sell out - of - the - money call options and buy out - of - the - money put options to construct a collar strategy [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to short at high prices with a light position [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to decline by 4 - 5%. Sell at - the - money call options and buy put options to construct a collar strategy [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The price may decline by 5 - 6%. Sell at - the - money call options and buy more out - of - the - money call options to construct an inverse spread option [6].

本周尿素观点：偏弱运行 | 供应 | • | 2025年第40周 (20251002-1008)，中国尿素产量140.28万吨，较上周增加3.22万吨，环比涨2.35%；周均日产20.04万吨，较上周增加0.46万吨。周期内安徽、 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 陕西等省产量有明显增加，产量有明显减少的省份是宁夏。下周，中国尿素周产量预计132-133万吨附近，较本期明显减少。下个周期预计4家企业计划 | | | | 停车，1家停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量减少的概率较大。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 内需方面，内需持续偏弱。北方地区农业追肥需求基本结束，在今年农业需求总量有需求前置的背景下，追肥需求的同比增速出现明显下滑。此外，复 合肥行业近期产成品销售压力较大，开工率维持低位，对尿素原料采购需求较为有限，对高价尿素货源接受度低。 | | 需求 | • | 出口方面，目前三批次出口配额全部落地，尿素出口正常进行，预计9月及10月出口量维持高位。目前贸易商正在向工厂进行出口订单的提货来陆续集 | | | | 港。出口限价有所下 ...

国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：弱势运行 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 本周合成橡胶观点：弱势运行 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 3 库存 估值 观点 供应 • 2025年10月份中国顺丁橡胶预计产量：13.13万吨左右，较9月份预期略增长0.09万吨。预计未来一月共5套装置计划检修，涉及年加工能力42万吨/年。4 季度后顺丁橡胶行业检修相对集中，尤其中石化方面企业普遍在10月初后进入检修流程。（隆众资讯） 需求 • 刚需方面，10月轮胎企业整体订单表现环比弱化。欧盟反倾销因素制约，目前部分欧盟市场为主企业订单环比上月缩减明显，加之连续降雨，居民出行 及运输均受到较大影响，整体需求表现偏弱，部分企业在国庆中秋"双节"期间存5-8天检修计划，期间整体出货表现不及预期，成品库存去库缓慢， 加之市场涨跌局面较为混乱，更 ...