Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost data. It also mentions a macro and industry news item about a heterojunction battery and component project. The trend strength for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is rated as 1, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2511's closing price is 8,635 yuan/ton, with a change of -40 yuan compared to T - 5. PS2511's closing price is 51,530 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,100 yuan compared to T - 5. There are also details about trading volume, open interest, and spreads for both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures [1]. - **Spot Market**: Industrial silicon spot prices vary by type, such as Xinjiang 99 silicon at 8,450 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feed at 49,000 yuan/ton. There are also data on spot premiums and discounts [1]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits are negative for both Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553. Polysilicon enterprise profits are - 15.7 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory is 54.3 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.5 million tons, and the total industry inventory is 71.8 million tons. Polysilicon factory inventory is 24.9 million tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: Prices of raw materials like silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes are provided, with some showing price changes over different time periods [1]. - **Related Product Prices and Profits in the Polysilicon Industry Chain**: Prices and profits of products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and photovoltaic glass are included, with some products showing price changes compared to different time points [1]. - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: DMC price is 11,000 yuan/ton, and DMC enterprise profit is - 994 yuan/ton. ADC12 price is 20,450 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is - 230 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News On August 11, the People's Government of Qidong City, Jiangsu Province, released an acceptance notice for the first - phase project of Qidong Hongjun's heterojunction battery and component project. The project, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan, is expected to produce 2GW of single - crystal heterojunction 210*105mm (N - type) HJT double - sided double - glass components annually [1][3]. Trend Strength The trend strength for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 1, indicating a neutral outlook on both [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bullish [1][4][5] - **Iron ore**: Short-term participation [1][7][8] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1][11][12] - **Coking coal**: Cautiously bullish [1][15][16] - **Manganese silicon**: Cautiously bearish [1][19][20] - **Silicon iron**: Cautiously bearish [1][19][20] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: After continuous decline, there may be a short-term rebound. Rebar has high production enthusiasm but weak demand, and supply-demand may loosen. Hot-rolled coil has a relatively stable fundamentals with a loosening supply-demand trend [1][3][4] - **Iron ore**: The industrial fundamentals are weak, and the ore price fluctuates weakly. The supply is increasing, and it waits for a new downward window [1][6][7] - **Coke**: Medium-term is weak, short-term is volatile. Spot starts the seventh round of price increase, but may face steel mill games. Supply-demand is balanced, and there may be a short-term rebound [1][9][11] - **Coking coal**: Medium-term is weak, short-term is volatile. Domestic production is flat, Mongolian coal imports increase. There is a downward repair space in the medium term and a short-term rebound possibility [1][13][15] - **Ferroalloys**: Fundamentals are weak, and prices run weakly. Manganese silicon has short-term demand resilience but high inventory. Silicon iron has increasing production, falling demand, and high supply pressure [1][17][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: High furnace and electric furnace profits, high iron water production, weak demand, lower-than-expected production restrictions, supply-demand loosening, possible short-term rebound due to policy [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled coil**: Slightly increased production, apparent demand, and inventory, limited impact of production restrictions, downward price with limited short-term downside, possible short-term rebound [1][4][5] Iron ore - **Price data**: Futures prices for different contracts are provided, along with spot prices, spreads, and freight rates [6] - **Fundamentals**: Increasing iron water production, insufficient environmental protection restrictions, end of steel mill restocking, port inventory accumulation, and a weakening supply-demand situation [7] Coke - **Price and inventory data**: Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and profit data are given [10] - **Fundamentals**: Spot price increase, improved coke enterprise profits, balanced supply-demand, stable production and inventory, possible short-term rebound [11] Coking coal - **Price and inventory data**: Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and utilization rate data are provided [14] - **Fundamentals**: Flat domestic production, increased Mongolian coal imports, high iron water production, stable demand, medium-term downward repair space, short-term rebound possibility [15] Ferroalloys - **Manganese silicon**: Loosening fundamentals, short-term demand resilience, high inventory, increased manganese ore shipments, stable port inventory, possible short-term rebound, medium-term sell-on-rally strategy [19][20] - **Silicon iron**: Increasing production, falling demand, high supply pressure, possible short-term rebound after over - decline, short - selling participation [19][20]

Report Summary 1) Reported Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the weak oscillatory trend. The industry contradictions are accumulating, and the steel price is under pressure. However, the cost has increased, limiting the downward space. The performance of demand should be closely monitored [1][2]. 3) Summaries Based on Related Contents Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term and intraday trends are weakly oscillatory, and the medium - term trend is oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the accumulation of industrial contradictions leading to the weak operation of steel prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar remains weak, and inventory continues to accumulate. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 58,000 tons compared to the previous week, but the sustainability of production cuts needs to be tracked due to acceptable profit per ton. - The demand for rebar is at a low level. The weekly apparent demand increased by 48,600 tons compared to the previous week, and the high - frequency daily trading volume remains sluggish. Both are at the low level of the same period, and the off - season characteristics persist, putting pressure on the steel price. - The supply and demand of rebar are operating steadily, but industrial contradictions are accumulating. The steel price is under pressure, and the increase in cost limits the downward space [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the Fed's July meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance with most seeing inflation as a higher risk than employment. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy has increased nickel supply costs, and the domestic nickel ore market shows a tight supply situation. Refined nickel production has slightly increased, while on the demand - side, stainless - steel mills are increasing production and new - energy vehicle sales are rising, but ternary battery demand is limited. Recently, nickel prices have declined, improving the downstream purchasing atmosphere, with domestic and overseas inventories decreasing. Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, there is a divergence between long and short positions, and the nickel price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to either wait and see or conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range of 11.95 - 12.4 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 119,830 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread is - 130 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,045 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Nickel is 102,385 lots, an increase of 51,529 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel is - 32,546 lots, a decrease of 1,310 lots. LME nickel inventory is 209,346 tons, an increase of 18 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory is 26,962 tons, an increase of 768 tons. The warrant quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 22,588 tons, an increase of 29 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 121,200 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,270 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 195.01 dollars/ton, up 10.18 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,095.16 million tons, an increase of 61.82 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.57 dollars/ton. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 2.22 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.04 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 104.14 million tons, an increase of 19.32 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 169.81 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.27 million tons, a decrease of 1.02 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most thought inflation was a higher risk than employment, sending a hawkish signal. The National Energy Administration released that the total social electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the photovoltaic industry's competition order and curb low - price disorderly competition [3].

Report on Natural Rubber Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Core View The current market lacks clear directional guidance, with long and short forces intertwined, and prices will mainly fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation during the peak production period in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply goes smoothly, consider shorting at high prices [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 20, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 1.68% from the previous day; the whole milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) was - 1075, down 4.88%. Other raw material prices also showed different degrees of decline or stability [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 955, up 4.02% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 105, down 23.53%; the 5 - 9 spread was 1060, down 1.85% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production in Thailand, India, and China increased, while that in Indonesia decreased. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased, while that of all - steel tires increased. In July, domestic tire production decreased, and export volume increased. The import volume of natural rubber in June and July increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 1.89%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 10.02% [1]. Report on Polysilicon Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Core View In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increased, but the supply growth rate was relatively large, still facing the pressure of inventory accumulation. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton, and the upper limit likely to be between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips and buying put options to short when the price is high and volatility is low [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re - feed material, N - type granular silicon, and other products remained unchanged on August 20 compared with the previous day, while the N - type material basis increased by 7.32% [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price was 51,875, down 0.74% from the previous day. Different monthly spreads showed different degrees of increase or decrease [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased slightly, and monthly production increased. Monthly import volume increased, export volume decreased, and net export volume decreased. Weekly and monthly silicon wafer production showed different trends, and import and export volumes decreased [4]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory, silicon wafer inventory, and polysilicon warehouse receipts all increased [4]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Core View The overall atmosphere in the industrial product futures market has weakened. After the previous macro - boost and related news disturbances ended, soda ash has returned to its fundamental logic and is operating weakly. Glass has been in a continuous weak operation. Short positions can be held for both [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions remained stable or declined on August 20. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased, and the prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 contracts also decreased [5]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The weekly production of soda ash increased significantly, and inventory returned to the pattern of accumulation. The daily melting volume of float glass remained unchanged, and the inventory of glass and soda ash increased [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The month - on - month data of new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate all showed different degrees of decline [5]. Report on Industrial Silicon Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Core View The cost of industrial silicon will gradually rise in the future. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. If some production capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will be reduced. It is recommended to buy on dips. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 20, the prices of different types of industrial silicon decreased, and the basis of some types increased [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: Different monthly spreads of industrial silicon showed different degrees of increase or decrease [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production increased, but production in Xinjiang decreased, while production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased. The national operating rate increased, with different trends in different regions. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased, while that of polysilicon and recycled aluminum alloy increased. Industrial silicon export volume increased [6]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factories and social inventory showed different trends [6]. Report on Logs Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Core View The fundamentals of logs have a marginal improvement expectation, and the spot market is short - term strong. The demand is currently firm, and the inventory continues to be destocked. The futures price may oscillate in the range of 800 - 850. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level around 800 and mainly participate in buying on dips [8]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 20, the prices of log futures contracts decreased slightly, and the prices of spot logs in different ports remained unchanged. The new round of foreign - market quotes remained unchanged [8]. - **Supply**: The port shipping volume and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased in July compared with June. The inventory in major ports in China decreased in the week ending August 15 [8]. - **Demand**: The daily average outbound volume of logs in China decreased slightly in the week ending August 15 [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - period: None; Inter - commodity: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [5] Core View - The limit - down of lithium carbonate futures is mainly affected by news and capital sentiment. Although a lithium salt plant announced its复产, it was within the plan and had limited short - term impact on market supply. The demand side still has certain rigid procurement support. When the futures price drops and the futures discount is large, one can consider buying for hedging [1][3] Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On August 20, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 85,660 yuan/ton and closed at 80,980 yuan/ton, a - 8.00% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 838,879 lots, and the open interest was 395,102 lots, a decrease from the previous trading day's 414,097 lots. The current basis was 4,720 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 2,4045 lots, a change of 430 lots from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 84,400 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 82,800 - 84,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 960 US dollars/ton, a - 80 US dollars/ton change from the previous day [1] - In July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 13,800 tons, a 21.8% month - on - month and 42.7% year - on - year decrease. From January to July 2025, the total imports were 131,600 tons, a 0.8% year - on - year increase [2] - In July 2025, China's spodumene imports were 750,700 tons, a 30.3% month - on - month increase. From January to July 2025, the total imports were 4,246,000 tons [2] Strategy - The limit - down of lithium carbonate futures is mainly affected by news and capital sentiment. Jiangte Motor announced that its subsidiary Yinli will resume production next week, which is a normal maintenance resumption with expected low output in the near future. Recently, the impact of mine disturbances and capital sentiment on lithium carbonate is significant, with high market volatility and active speculative funds. When the futures discount is large after the price drop, one can consider buying for hedging [3] Risks - Consumption end fails to meet expectations; Mine end disturbances exceed expectations; Macroeconomic sentiment and open - interest changes have an impact [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the asphalt market is in a state of weak oscillation with a decline in cracking spread. The trend strength of asphalt is rated as 0, suggesting a neutral market outlook [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of BU2509 and BU2510 decreased during the night session, with declines of -0.43% and -0.41% respectively. The trading volume of BU2509 decreased by 4,236 hands, while that of BU2510 increased by 4,045 hands. The open interest of both contracts decreased [1]. - **Spot Market**: The wholesale prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta regions were 3,530 yuan/ton and 3,720 yuan/ton respectively. The Shandong wholesale price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while the Yangtze River Delta price remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Indicators**: The refinery operating rate decreased by 2.86% to 35.61%, while the refinery inventory rate remained stable at 25.79%. The basis (Shandong - 09) decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 37 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 10 inter - period spread increased by 2 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2. Market Information - **Production Plan**: In September 2025, the domestic asphalt output plan of local refineries is 155.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.5 tons (21.5%) and a year - on - year increase of 46.7 tons (42.9%) [16]. - **Shipment Volume**: From August 13 - 19, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers was 39.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. The shipment volume decreased significantly in the East China region [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: From August 14 - 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%. From August 13 - 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 17.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [16].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market has support at the bottom, and short - long trading is recommended. The overall situation of natural rubber is complex, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to rise, and tire operating rate is at a high level, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - The basis is - 1075 with a spot price of 14,600, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Exchange inventory has increased recently, while Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly [14][17]. - The import volume has rebounded [20]. - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, but tire production has reached a new high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32]. - The basis weakened on August 20 [35]. Fundamentals Data - Bullish factors include high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - Bearish factors are increasing supply and negative domestic economic indicators [6]. Basis - The basis on August 20 was - 1075 and it weakened on that day [4][35]. Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) declined on August 20 [8]. Inventory - Exchange inventory has increased recently, and Qingdao area inventory has had small changes [14][17]. Import - The import volume has rebounded [20]. Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, tire production has reached a new high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32]. Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Bullish factors: high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - Bearish factors: increasing supply and negative domestic economic indicators [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No rating indicated [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The crude oil market maintains a volatile trend, and the price center still faces downward pressure in the medium term, but short - term long positions in futures and options are at a low level, and a strategy of buying out - of - the - money options is recommended for hedging [2] - The fuel oil system shows relatively stronger performance than SC, but the expected increase in heavy - quality resources from the Middle East still suppresses the market [3] - For asphalt, demand is expected to pick up during the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, and the price fluctuates weakly, with the 10 - contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] - The overseas LPG market is stabilizing, but the domestic market is under pressure, and the high - basis pattern can continue, with the market mainly in low - level fluctuations [5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - The SC10 contract fell 0.47%. The market faces the pressure of accelerated inventory accumulation after the third - quarter peak season, and the price center may shift down in the medium term. Short - term net long positions in overseas futures and options are at a low level. Hold out - of - the - money option double - buy strategies for hedging and then intervene in medium - term short positions after volatility increases [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil system is relatively stronger than SC, with cracking strengthening. The shipment of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East to Asia is increasing, and the inventory in Fujairah has decreased. The total arrival volume in August increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared with June. The high - sulfur is relatively under pressure, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has widened [3] Asphalt - After the US resumes importing Venezuelan oil, it is expected to have a diversion effect on North Asian resources. Sinopec's asphalt production has a trend of increasing year - on - year decline. Road demand is expected to pick up during the "Golden September and Silver October" season. The 8 - month sample refinery shipment increased by 8% year - on - year. The BU single - side price follows the SC's fluctuations, and the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] LPG - The overseas market is stabilizing. Domestic imports and refinery outflows are increasing, and domestic gas is under pressure. The cost advantage of propane is weakening, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the high - operating rate. The top pressure is strong under high - level warehouse receipts, and the market is mainly in low - level fluctuations [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The market has been affected by short - term "small essay" disturbances, but most varieties in the energy and chemical sector are still viewed as weak. The short - term geopolitical disturbances in the crude oil market have weakened, and it has returned to the fundamental logic. Other varieties are also facing different supply - demand pressures and inventory situations, which affect their price trends [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: After the Trump - Russia Alaska meeting, the short - term geopolitical disturbances in the Russia - Ukraine situation have weakened. The crude oil market has returned to the fundamental logic. With the approaching seasonal demand inflection point and the accelerating production increase of OPEC+, the pressure of crude oil surplus will gradually materialize [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillating, and the center of gravity is slowly moving down. The short - term pressure above the hourly - level is around 490. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [2]. 2. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The supply side has a high operating rate of 78.18% this week, and the planned production facilities in August have been put into operation. Attention should be paid to the new production capacity in September. Although the downstream demand has increased recently, the high port inventory and the pressure of new production capacity still lead to a large pressure of inventory accumulation. It is still regarded as bearish [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of benzene ethylene shows a short - term downward structure. After hitting a new low today, the market rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but it is not considered a trend reversal. The short - term pressure above is in the range of 7265 - 7290 after contract switching. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: During the rainy season in Southeast Asia, the raw material prices in Thailand are stable. The short - term improvement in the downstream tire operating rate provides support, and the inventory in Qingdao has decreased recently. However, the high tire inventory still suppresses the expected increase in demand, and the medium - term fundamental driving force of rubber is still downward [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of rubber shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After rising and then falling today, it tested the short - term pressure at 15950 but failed. The pressure level is still valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 15950 [9]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The high production and weak demand expectations of synthetic rubber in the medium - term have not changed. The high production of butadiene rubber and the large inventory of downstream tires, especially semi - steel tires, are difficult to solve. The supply pressure of butadiene has increased after the new device was put into operation in the third quarter. Recently, the arrival volume of butadiene has increased, and the short - term bullish factor of tight port inventory has disappeared. Coupled with the decline in the price of crude oil, the synthetic rubber is still considered bearish [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of synthetic rubber shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After rising and then falling today, it tested the short - term pressure at 11950 but failed. The pressure level is still valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14]. 5. PX - **Logic**: The supply of PX has increased slightly, the operation of PTA is stable, and the fundamentals of PX have weakened, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. However, the polyester load is expected to increase from August to September, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the movement of the cost - end crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PX shows a short - term upward structure. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, the trading volume increased. The hourly - level structure is bullish, and the short - term support is around 6730. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [17]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: There is no significant change in the supply - side operation rate, but the downstream demand is expected to improve in the peak season from August to September. Coupled with the continuous low processing fee of PTA itself, the supply - demand expectation is strong, but attention should be paid to the change of the cost - end crude oil [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PTA shows a short - term downward structure. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, the trading volume increased, but the structure is weaker than that of PX and has not turned bullish. The short - term pressure above after contract switching is in the range of 4760 - 4780. The strategy is to hold short positions cautiously in the hourly cycle [20]. 7. PP - **Logic**: The supply pressure has increased due to the new production capacity put into operation in August. Although the downstream operation rate has improved, the inventory at all links in the industrial chain has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the movement of crude oil [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PP shows a short - term downward structure. After hitting a new low today, it rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but the downward structure has not changed. The short - term pressure above is temporarily around 7050. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [21]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: After the Iranian devices resumed operation, a large number of shipments have arrived at ports recently. The port inventory has increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the short - term inventory accumulation speed is fast, which brings pressure. At the same time, the domestic production remains at a high level, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season, with high raw material inventory. The overall fundamentals are still bearish [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of methanol shows a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. Today, there was a positive line with a decrease in positions and an increase in trading volume, which is regarded as a rebound repair after five consecutive negative lines. The short - term pressure above is around 245 (01 contract). The strategy is to continue to hold the remaining short positions after partial profit - taking yesterday in the hourly cycle [24]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: The supply - side operation rate has continued to rise to a year - on - year high of 78.8%. The demand is difficult to improve due to the downward trend in the real estate market and the off - season. The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation is obvious, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of PVC shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend was oscillating. After hitting a new low, it rebounded with the energy and chemical sector in the afternoon, but the trend has not reversed. The short - term pressure above is around 5060. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [28]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The relatively low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical varieties, but the expectation of inventory accumulation also limits the upward space. Attention should be paid to the start time of inventory accumulation [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of ethylene glycol shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, it rose sharply with increased trading volume and stood above the short - term pressure at 4385. The short - term downward structure at the hourly - level is being tested. The strategy is to take profit and leave the short positions in the hourly cycle [30]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: The increase in operation rate and the new production capacity have brought large supply pressure. The downstream operation rate remains at a year - on - year low, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is obvious. The supply - demand driving force is bearish [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of plastic shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. After hitting a new low today, it rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but the downward structure has not changed. The short - term pressure above is around 7345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [32]. 12. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The supply side continues to increase production. On the demand side, in addition to the rigid demand for glass, the speculative demand has weakened. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased again, and the heavy soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has not had a substantial impact on the supply of soda ash [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of soda ash shows a downward structure. Today, there was a long negative line and a new low, and the decline has entered an accelerating stage. At the same time, the 01 contract has also broken through the support. The previous divergence structure of the 09 and 01 contracts has become unified. The strategy is to transfer the short positions of the 09 contract to the 01 contract and continue to hold [37]. 13. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The operation rate of alumina in the demand side remains high, and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber in non - aluminum demand has also increased and remains high. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operation rate of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals are still weak [39][41]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of caustic soda shows an oscillating structure. After increasing positions and rising in the afternoon today, the 15 - minute short - cycle has turned bullish, and it shows an oscillating trend at the hourly - level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [41].