Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Under the influence of the current US tariff policy, market risk aversion has increased, risk assets have continued to weaken, and oil prices have remained in a downward trend [2]. - In the second quarter, Asian PX plants will undergo concentrated maintenance, leading to a significant decline in supply, with the intensity of maintenance to be observed. It is expected that the market will shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction in the second quarter [2]. - Currently, cost is the most important influencing factor. Even if the fundamentals improve, it will be difficult to reverse the situation. The PX CFR China price on April 9 was $699 per ton. The escalation of the US tariff policy may trigger concerns about a global economic slowdown, causing a narrow decline in international oil prices and squeezing the cost side of PX [2]. - Amid the escalation of trade frictions, the market is filled with a strong sense of fear of price drops. Industry players are mainly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The sales of downstream polyester products are lackluster, and the PTA market continues to decline. Although the PTA social inventory is at a neutral to high level compared to historical periods, there has been a slight decrease in inventory in the past month, and it is expected to see inventory reduction from April to May [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is between 5,400 - 5,600 yuan per ton, a decrease of 215 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The cost - pricing logic continues to operate, and it is difficult to break away from the follow - up logic in the short term [2]. - Due to the impact of the tariff policy, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly (PX view score: - 2, PTA view score: - 2, PR view score: - 1) [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On April 9, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $62.35 per barrel, up 4.65% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $65.48 per barrel, up 4.23%. The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $517.75 per ton, down 3.63%. The spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $619 per ton, down 4.11%. The spot price of p - xylene PX CFR China's main port was $699 per ton, down 2.92% [1]. - **PTA**: On April 9, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,110 yuan per ton, down 4.33%; the settlement price was 4,144 yuan per ton, down 4.95%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,122 yuan per ton, down 3.96%; the settlement price was 4,156 yuan per ton, down 3.80%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,366 yuan per ton, down 4.07%. The CCFEI price index of purified terephthalic acid PTA for the domestic market was 4,150 yuan per ton, down 4.71%; the CCFEI price index for the external market on April 8 was $559.5 per ton, down 1.76%. The near - far month spread was 12 yuan per ton, up 52 yuan; the basis was 40 yuan per ton, down 19 yuan [1]. - **PX**: On April 9, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 5,724 yuan per ton, down 4.22%; the settlement price was 5,796 yuan per ton, down 4.98%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 5,752 yuan per ton, down 4.99%; the settlement price was 5,752 yuan per ton, down 4.99%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 5,781 yuan per ton, down 2.08%. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene CFR Taiwan, China was $700 per ton, down 2.91%; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene FOB South Korea was $675 per ton, down 3.02%. The PXN spread was $181.25 per ton, down 0.82%; the PX - MX spread was $80 per ton, up 7.38%. The basis was 57 yuan per ton, up 129 yuan [1]. - **PR**: On April 9, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,378 yuan per ton, down 2.50%; the settlement price was 5,406 yuan per ton, down 2.98%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,350 yuan per ton, down 2.59%; the settlement price was 5,350 yuan per ton, down 2.59%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,420 yuan per ton, down 2.69%; in the South China market, it was 5,450 yuan per ton, down 3.54%. The basis in the East China market was 42 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan; in the South China market, it was 72 yuan per ton, down 62 yuan [1]. - **Downstream**: On April 9, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,600 yuan per ton, down 1.15%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 6,950 yuan per ton, down 1.07%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,800 yuan per ton, down 2.16%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,750 yuan per ton, down 2.17%; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,230 yuan per ton, down 3.86%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,440 yuan per ton, down 4.06%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,420 yuan per ton, down 2.69% [2]. Operating Conditions - On April 9, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 73.35%, unchanged from the previous value; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA plants was 76.77%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of polyester plants was 89.35%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of bottle chip plants was 75.47%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 66.76%, unchanged [1]. Production and Sales - On April 9, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 25%, down 6 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 58%, up 14 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 44%, down 23 percentage points [1]. Device Information - The 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the Northeast and the 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in the South China are planned to undergo maintenance in the near future, which requires further attention [2].

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - In March, China's official foreign exchange reserves reached $32,406.65 billion, an increase of $13.441 billion month-on-month, primarily driven by exchange rate factors[1] - The positive contribution from exchange rates was significant, with the dollar index declining by 3.13% from the end of February, impacting reserves positively by approximately $60.625 billion[2] - The valuation effect negatively impacted reserves by about $4.73 billion due to falling European bond prices, leading to a net effect of approximately $55.901 billion on reserves[2] Group 2: Trade Environment and Currency Fluctuations - The short-term trade environment is identified as a core factor influencing exchange rates, with expectations of increased two-way volatility[3] - If trade tensions escalate with other major countries, they may devalue their currencies against the dollar, which could lead to a passive appreciation of the RMB[3] - Conversely, if major countries make concessions in trade negotiations, external pressures on China may increase, expanding the depreciation space for the RMB[3] Group 3: Gold Reserves - As of the end of March, gold reserves stood at 7.37 million ounces, marking the fifth consecutive month of increases[4] - Gold reserves now account for 6.4% of total foreign exchange reserves, with expectations for further increases in this ratio[4] - Short-term outlook suggests a potential slight decline in gold prices due to unmet U.S. gold tariff expectations, but a long-term forecast predicts new highs by 2025 driven by central bank purchases[4]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 4 月 8 日 【粕类日报】贸易影响增加 粕类继续走强 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | 2025/4/8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 0 1 | 3127 | 103 | 天津 | 360 | 370 | -10 | | 0 5 豆粕 | 2973 | 8 8 | 东莞 | 110 | 120 | -10 | | 0 9 | 3164 | 108 | 张家港 | 200 | 220 | -20 | | | | | 日照 | 290 | 300 | -10 | | 0 1 | 2457 | 100 | 南通 | -125 | - 8 | -117 | | 菜粕 0 5 | ...

| | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】 | C E H F . | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | F | 唐策略示 | | | | | 发布日期:2025/04 | 研究院:李泽矩 | | | | | 从业资格号:F0251925 | | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | | | | IF与IH的4月合约贴水大幅升高,加上国家队护盘方向主要在此,可考虑 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 进行短多,交易反弹。 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | 宏观金融 | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期调整后料进入震荡,长期仍有上涨空间。 | | | 日 银 | | 关税政策超预期,银价相对承压,短期或偏弱震荡。 | | | 铜 | 農汤 | 全球贸易摩擦升级,市场避险情绪升温,观望为主。 | | | 铝 氧化铝 | ○震荡 震荡 | 全球贸易摩擦升级,市场避险情绪升温,观望为主。由阳气 国内氧化铝产能持续释放,供应过剩格局延续,价格承压。 | | | | | 特朗普对等关税大超预期叠加基本面 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily insights on the feed and aquaculture industry, covering various products such as live pigs, eggs, oils, soybean meal, and corn. It analyzes the current market situation, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of each product, and offers corresponding trading strategies [1][2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - **Spot Price**: On April 8, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable. The price in Liaoning was 14.1 - 14.4 yuan/kg, in Henan 14.3 - 15 yuan/kg, in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong 15.1 - 15.6 yuan/kg [1]. - **Market Analysis**: China's 34% counter - tariff on US imports from April 10 has limited direct impact on the pork market as the domestic pork import accounts for only about 5% and the US share is less than 1%. Currently, the industry still has breeding profits. In the short - term, large - scale farms control the weight of pigs for sale, and the low - price entry of secondary fattening and low slaughter inventory support the price. However, the price is under pressure due to cautious secondary fattening after price increases, increased large - pig sales, and limited terminal consumption. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply from April to September is expected to increase, and the price may fall back to the cost level. The forward price is also under pressure [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures are at a discount, reflecting a weak expectation. The general direction is to go short on rebounds. For the 05 contract, pay attention to the pressure at 13,500 - 13,600; for the 07 contract, 13,600 - 13,800; and for the 09 contract, 14,300 - 14,500. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 07 and 09 contracts at high prices [1]. Eggs - **Spot Price**: On April 8, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.05 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in Beijing it was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [2]. - **Market Analysis**: In April, the supply pressure is large due to the increasing number of old hens undergoing molting and newly - hatched chickens starting to lay eggs. The egg price is under pressure, but the increased culling of old hens and the digestion of inventory have marginally improved the supply - demand pattern. In the long - term, the high breeding profit from December 2024 to February 2025 led to high replenishment enthusiasm, resulting in more newly - laying hens in the second quarter. The supply increase trend in the second half of the year may be difficult to reverse [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 05 contract on the futures market has a slight premium over the spot. For non - holders, be cautious about shorting. The 08 and 09 contracts are considered bearish in general, but pay attention to the impact of feed costs and culling [2]. Oils - **Futures Price Movement**: On April 7, the US soybean oil May contract fell 1.14% to 45.20 cents/pound, and the Malaysian palm oil June contract fell 3.40% to 4,182 ringgit/ton. The domestic palm oil price fell 410 - 460 yuan/ton, soybean oil 150 - 250 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil 250 - 280 yuan/ton [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Trump's tariff policy has increased the global economic recession expectation, dragging down the oil market. In Malaysia, the March export increased by 0.4 - 3.9% month - on - month, but the production increased by 5.10 - 9.48%. The inventory is expected to rise. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate weakly. In China, the supply - demand is in a tight balance in the short - term, but the price may decline in the long - term [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Although the US may increase the biodiesel blending ratio, the overall fundamentals are bearish. After the mutual tariff imposition, the domestic import of US soybeans incurs heavy losses, and the South American supply pressure is large. The US soybean is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. In China, the soybean and soybean oil inventories are decreasing, but the supply pressure will increase in the second quarter. The price may first fall and then rise in the long - term [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The uncertainties in the relations between the US, Canada, and China have affected the Canadian rapeseed export. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the supply pressure will ease after May. In the long - term, the rapeseed oil price is expected to stop falling and rebound [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the festival, domestic oils are expected to fluctuate weakly, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil relatively strong. In the second quarter, the overall oil price may decline, and then rebound in the third quarter. Temporarily observe the 05 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the support levels. Close the spread - widening position of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and soybean oil [8]. Soybean Meal - **Futures and Spot Price**: On April 7, the US soybean 05 contract rose 6 cents to 983 cents/bu. The domestic soybean meal spot price in the East China region was 3,120 yuan/ton, with a basis of 05 + 220 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: China's tariff policy on US imports has a limited direct impact on soybean meal before July, but it may push up the bottom price of the 05 and 07 contracts due to sentiment. The abundant supply from South America will limit the upward space. In the long - term, the tariff will increase the import cost and tighten the supply, driving up the domestic soybean meal price [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be cautious about going long on the 05 and 07 contracts. Go long on the 09 contract at low prices. Do a reverse spread on the 7 - 9 contract and a positive spread on the 9 - 1 contract. For spot enterprises, be cautious about arranging the basis from May to September, and price at low levels if there is an existing basis. Arrange the basis after September according to the crushing profit or use the 9 - 1 positive spread [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On April 7, the new corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2,180 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,230 yuan/ton. The purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2,334 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, there is still a selling demand from the grass - roots level, and the port inventory is high, putting pressure on the spot price. However, the market sentiment is bullish, and the downstream has replenishment demand. In the long - term, the corn production in the 24/25 season has decreased, and the import has continued to decline, but the supply is supplemented by substitutes, limiting the upward space [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Generally, be bullish on the corn market. Look for opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on pullbacks, and pay attention to the 2,250 support level. Do positive spreads on the 5 - 9 and 5 - 7 contracts [10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, eggs, live pigs, etc. on the previous and the day before the previous trading days [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the implementation of US tariffs and OPEC+ production increase, the international oil price continued to decline sharply, causing the cost - side support of PX to collapse. The PTA demand side was weak, and the market was bearish. Although the PTA supply was sufficient, it was in the process of de - stocking. The polyester bottle - chip market was also affected by trade frictions, with a bearish sentiment and the cost - pricing logic continuing to operate. It was expected that PX, PTA, and PR would operate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price Changes - **Upstream Products**: On April 7, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased by 9.34% and 8.45% respectively compared to the previous values. The spot prices of naphtha, xylene, and PX also declined significantly, with the spot price of PX CFR China Main Port dropping by 12.40% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE TA contracts all decreased, with the settlement price of the main contract dropping by 6.03%. The domestic spot price of PTA decreased by 1.22%, and the CCFEI price index of PTA decreased by 5.89% [1]. - **PX**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PX contracts decreased, with the settlement price of the main contract dropping by 7.01%. The domestic spot price of PX decreased by 5.46% [1]. - **PR**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PR contracts decreased, with the settlement price of the main contract dropping by 6.03%. The market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East and South China markets decreased by 5.72% and 4.29% respectively [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price indices of various polyester products such as polyester filament and short - fiber all decreased, with the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D dropping by 4.08% [2]. 3.2 Spread Changes - The PXN spread decreased by 6.81% to 208.75 dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread decreased by 13.12% to 96 dollars/ton. The near - far month spread of PTA increased by 6.00% to - 46 yuan/ton, and the basis of PTA decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. The basis of PX increased by 27 yuan/ton to 71 yuan/ton. The basis of PR in the East China market decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, and in the South China market, it increased by 82 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Operating Conditions - The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 73.35%. The PTA factory load rate decreased by 3.01% to 76.77%, the polyester factory load rate increased by 0.31% to 89.35%, the bottle - chip factory load rate increased by 2.31% to 75.47%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate decreased by 0.42% to 66.76%. The sales - to - production ratios of polyester filament, short - fiber, and polyester chips all decreased, with the polyester short - fiber sales - to - production ratio dropping by 35 percentage points to 49% [1]. 3.4 Device Information - The 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in Northeast China and the 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China are planned to be overhauled soon, but the situation needs further attention [2]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - On the previous trading day, due to the impact of tariff policies, the 2505 contract of PTA closed at 4,550 yuan/ton, down 6.03%, with an intraday trading volume of 31,800 lots; the 2505 contract of PX closed at 6,392 yuan/ton, down 7.01%, with an intraday trading volume of 4,061 lots; the 2505 contract of PR closed at 5,670 yuan/ton, down 6.03%, with an intraday trading volume of 1,436 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly (PX view score: - 2, PTA view score: - 2, PR view score: - 2) [2].

Group 1 - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including concerns over escalating trade tensions and a strong US dollar, which have led investors to withdraw from safe-haven assets like gold [2] - The gold market has experienced a strong performance since 2024, with COMEX gold futures reaching over $2810 per ounce in January, marking a more than 6% increase from the beginning of the year [1] - Domestic gold prices in China also saw significant fluctuations, with Au99.99 reaching a historical high of 747.5 yuan per gram on April 3, before dropping to 713.98 yuan per gram on April 7 [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the current drop in gold prices is a result of a combination of factors, including a shift in Federal Reserve policy, a stronger dollar, and a recovery in risk appetite among investors [2] - Despite the recent downturn, there is a bullish outlook for gold in the medium to long term, with expectations of potential price increases in the coming years [2] - Investors are advised to remain rational and avoid impulsive trading decisions in the current volatile market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The shock pattern of China's domestic bond market was broken by the escalation of trade frictions last week. After the introduction of the US's so - called "reciprocal tariffs", the global risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the yields of domestic bonds have declined significantly. The direction of interest rate decline has been re - established, and the probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in Q2 has increased significantly [2][3][6]. - Although the final implementation of short - term tariffs remains to be observed and the market may fluctuate, in the next quarter, long - term interest rates may hit new lows. At present, it is recommended to pay more attention to the duration strategy and appropriately lengthen the duration of the portfolio [3][36]. Summary by Directory 1. US Reciprocal Tariff Rates Significantly Exceed Expectations, and the Overseas Market Enters a Risk - Aversion Mode - After Trump took office in January, the US imposed tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico on the grounds of "fentanyl" and immigration issues, and also imposed tariffs on specific products such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles. On February 13, Trump signed a memorandum to impose reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. The market originally thought this would reduce the possibility of a significant increase in overall US tariffs [2][6][7]. - On April 2, the announced reciprocal tariffs first imposed a 10% tariff on all US imports. For economies with large trade deficits, additional differential tariffs were imposed. This greatly exceeded market expectations, bringing high uncertainty to the global economy, potentially pushing up US inflation in the short term and reducing economic growth, and thus increasing global risk - aversion sentiment [2]. - After the reciprocal tariffs were introduced, most economies said they would negotiate with the US. China announced a series of counter - measures on April 4, showing more preparedness for potential tariff risks and enhanced economic resilience. There is still room for negotiation between China and the US, and the final tariff rate is likely to be lower than the current level, but the impact on the fundamentals may exceed previous expectations [2]. 2. The Implementation of Tariffs is Expected to Accelerate the Relaxation of Aggregate Policies. Pay Attention to the Decline of the Central Level of Funding Rates - After the end of the cross - quarter period last week, the funding became looser, and on Thursday, the central bank's open - market operations turned to net injection, pushing DR007 below 1.7%, the lowest level since mid - January. The central bank may re - evaluate the economic and financial situation due to the escalation of global trade frictions, and the decline of the central level of funding rates may accelerate [18]. - Although the funding rate dropped below 1.7% on Thursday, the bank's rigid net financing scale declined, indicating that the central bank may not be ready to lower the central level of funding rates to 1.5% or lower. However, if there is greater pressure on the equity market or external demand, the time for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may be advanced, and the central level of funding rates may decline further [21]. - The scale of 91 - day discounted Treasury bonds issued last week was lower than expected, leading to a downward revision of the forecast for the April Treasury bond issuance scale. It is expected that the central financial institution capital injection special Treasury bonds will be publicly issued, and the overall government bond issuance scale in April is expected to be about 2.23 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 86 billion yuan, a decrease of about 61 billion yuan compared with March [3][24][30]. 3. The Direction of Interest Rate Decline is Re - established, and the Rhythm and Magnitude Depend on the Central Bank's Follow - up Actions - Before the implementation of the tariff measures last week, it was believed that the bond market rally driven by the revision of fundamental expectations in the second quarter might repeat in 2025. After the escalation of trade frictions, the yields of bonds at all maturities declined significantly, and investors were concerned about the downward space of interest rates [35]. - If priced at a funding rate of 1.65% - 1.7%, the downward space for short - and medium - term interest rates may be limited. However, due to the increased uncertainty in the domestic fundamental environment, the central bank may be more inclined to reduce costs, and the probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in Q2 has increased significantly. In the short term, long - term interest rates may be more certain, and 3 - 5 - year credit bonds also have strong allocation value [36].

Group 1: Tariff Measures - The Chinese government announced a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the United States, effective from April 10, 2025, at 12:01 PM [2][4] - Existing tax exemption policies remain unchanged, and the newly imposed tariffs will not be eligible for reduction or exemption [3] - Goods that have already been shipped before April 10, 2025, will not be subject to the new tariffs if they arrive between April 10, 2025, and May 13, 2025 [4] Group 2: Export Controls - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth materials, effective immediately [6] - The export control measures aim to safeguard national security and fulfill international obligations, reflecting China's commitment to maintaining global peace and regional stability [6] - The Ministry of Commerce has placed 16 U.S. entities under export control, prohibiting the export of dual-use items to these entities due to potential threats to China's national security [8] Group 3: Unreliable Entity List - The Ministry of Commerce has added 11 U.S. companies, including Skydio Inc., to the unreliable entity list, prohibiting them from engaging in import and export activities related to China [10][14] - These companies are restricted from making new investments in China, as part of measures to protect national sovereignty and security [11][12] Group 4: WTO Dispute - China has filed a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization (WTO) against the U.S. for imposing "reciprocal tariffs," arguing that such actions violate international trade rules and harm legitimate rights of WTO members [15][16]

Report Overview - Report Date: April 3, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fats [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is concerned about the prospects of the US biomass diesel policy, and the USDA monthly crush report shows that the US soybean oil inventory is lower than expected. The sharp rise in US soybean oil drives the entire oil and fat sector. The increase in biomass diesel blending volume may increase the demand for US soybean oil by about 1.8 million tons. - Domestic oils and fats have different upward trends. Soybean oil is mainly traded in the domestic market, and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals in the second quarter puts pressure on soybean oils and fats. The spread arbitrage of going long on soybean oil 09 and short on palm oil 09 performs poorly. - China's additional 100% tariff on rapeseed oil and oilseed cake from Canada has taken effect, and the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed is pending. Affected by policies, future supply is uncertain, which is beneficial to far - month contracts. - Biodiesel policies and trade frictions significantly amplify market volatility risks. Supported by policies, the overall oil and fat market remains strong. Attention should be paid to policy changes. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: In the East China region, the price of first - grade soybean oil is Y2505 + 260 from April to May, Y2509 + 220 from June to July, Y2509 + 230 from June to August, and Y2509 + 240 from June to September. In Dongguan, the quoted price of first - grade rapeseed oil from each factory is 05 + 200, and the quoted price of third - grade rapeseed oil is 05 + 40. In South China, the basis quotes are Dongguan 18 - degree palm oil P05 + 720 yuan/ton and Dongguan 24 - degree palm oil P05 + 460 yuan/ton. - Market Comments: The rise in US soybean oil drives the entire oil and fat sector. The potential increase in biomass diesel blending volume may increase US soybean oil demand. Domestic oils and fats have different trends, and policies have an impact on supply and price trends. [7][8] 3.2 Industry News - As of the end of February, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.924 billion pounds, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.4%, which was much lower than analysts' forecasts. - The 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production is expected to be 167.54 million tons, lower than the previous forecast due to poor weather in Rio Grande do Sul. - Brazil's soybean exports in March reached 16.09 million tons, setting a new monthly record. - The USDA expects US farmers to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans in 2025, lower than market expectations. [9][16] 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the basis changes of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, the spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil, the P1 - 5, P5 - 9, and P9 - 1 spreads of palm oil, and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Malaysian ringgit. [12][14][15][17][22][23]