Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday night, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a volatile rebound, with the futures price rising 2.28% to 14325 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Thursday [5] - **Core Logic**: Recent high - level meetings may bring a new round of supply - side reform, boosting domestic commodity futures. However, the supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations, and downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a coming off - season for terminal demand [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday night, the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed a volatile rebound, with the futures price rising 1.78% to 11445 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Thursday [7] - **Core Logic**: High - level meetings may bring a new round of supply - side reform, boosting domestic commodity futures. The load of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China has increased slightly, driving up production and capacity utilization. But downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a coming off - season for terminal demand [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent emphasis on advancing the national unified market construction and regulating low-price disorderly competition is expected to enhance market expectations for supply-side reforms, leading to a rebound in rebar futures prices, although the upward momentum may slow as market sentiment stabilizes and fundamentals take precedence [1] Group 1: Supply Side Dynamics - There is an increasing expectation in the market for steel mills to reduce production, particularly in light of the recent "anti-involution" meeting and potential production restrictions in Tangshan from July 4-15 [2] - The current steel industry situation is significantly different from 2016, with this year's steelmaking profits reaching the highest level in three years, and the total profit for the black metal smelting and rolling industry from January to May turning profitable at 31.6 billion yuan [2] - Despite the high profits in steelmaking, the willingness of steel mills to actively reduce production remains low, and the overall impact of the Tangshan production restrictions is expected to be limited [2] Group 2: Demand Pressure - The market anticipates a decline in rebar demand as the end-user demand enters a low season, although recent consumption has shown resilience with a weekly apparent consumption of 2.2487 million tons, slightly exceeding market expectations [3] - The total inventory of rebar has seen a slight decrease of 37,900 tons, maintaining a total of 5.4521 million tons, indicating that the turning point for inventory accumulation has not yet appeared [3] - The ongoing adjustment cycle in the real estate sector and suboptimal infrastructure funding are expected to continue to suppress rebar demand, with high temperatures and rainy weather in July further limiting demand improvement [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - Overall, the rebar market is expected to enter a phase of weak supply and demand as the low season deepens, with limited upward potential until new macroeconomic benefits emerge, particularly around the pressure level of 3,100 yuan per ton [4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, aiming to address the issue of "involution" in market competition [2][8] - Historical cases show that supply-side clearance driven by policy typically begins with market expectations, while the main upward trend requires improvements in industry structure to support cash flow and balance sheet recovery [8][10] - The current round of overcapacity is primarily concentrated in mid- and downstream industries, unlike the previous cycle which was focused on upstream resource sectors [9][10] Group 2 - The report suggests focusing on two main strategies: industries that have experienced prolonged supply-side clearance and are likely to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics, and industries that may benefit from policy-driven accelerated clearance [10][11] - For natural clearance, the report recommends monitoring demand-side indicators for upstream industries and supply-side indicators for mid- and downstream sectors, highlighting sectors such as agricultural chemicals, general machinery, pharmaceuticals, and components [10] - For policy-driven clearance, attention should be given to industries mentioned in recent policies aimed at addressing "involution," including photovoltaic, lithium batteries, automobiles, and cement [10][17]

Core Viewpoint - The document emphasizes that the research material is intended solely for professional investors associated with Huachuang Securities, highlighting the importance of proper interpretation of the information provided [3]. Group 1 - The research team at Huachuang Securities is positioned to serve professional investors, providing timely exchanges of viewpoints in the context of new media [3]. - The material is not intended for general investors, as they may lack the necessary interpretative services to understand key assumptions, ratings, and target prices, potentially leading to investment losses [3]. - The content is derived from previously published research reports by Huachuang Securities, and any discrepancies should refer to the complete report from the publication date [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant market reversals in the domestic futures market driven by macro policies, supply-demand changes, and geopolitical events, highlighting historical trends and potential future implications. Group 1: Historical Market Trends - From 2001 to 2007, a super cycle in commodities was driven by the rapid industrialization of China post-WTO accession and a drop in U.S. interest rates to 1% [2][4]. - Notable price increases included copper rising from 15,000 CNY/ton in 2002 to 85,000 CNY/ton in 2006, and rubber increasing from 6,000 CNY/ton in 2001 to 30,000 CNY/ton in 2006, primarily due to infrastructure demands and supply constraints [3][4]. Group 2: Recovery Post-Financial Crisis - The period from 2008 to 2011 saw a recovery following the global financial crisis, with China's "four trillion" stimulus plan and loose monetary policy [6][7]. - Cotton prices surged from 10,000 CNY/ton in 2008 to 33,000 CNY/ton in 2010, driven by reduced production in Xinjiang and a recovery in the textile industry [7]. - Rebar prices increased from 3,400 CNY/ton in early 2009 to 5,000 CNY/ton in 2011, supported by infrastructure investments [8]. Group 3: Supply-Side Reforms - In 2016, supply-side reforms led to a reversal in the black series commodities market, with forced capacity reductions following years of overproduction [11][12]. - Coking coal prices rose from 515 CNY/ton at the end of 2015 to 1,600 CNY/ton in 2016 due to mine closures and production limits [13]. - Rebar prices increased from 1,616 CNY/ton to 3,500 CNY/ton, influenced by a recovery in real estate and infrastructure [14]. Group 4: Post-Pandemic Recovery and New Energy Revolution - The period from 2020 to 2021 was marked by a recovery from the pandemic, with global central banks injecting liquidity and China resuming production first [17][18]. - Copper prices rose from 35,000 CNY/ton in March 2020 to 78,000 CNY/ton in July 2021, driven by demand from green transition initiatives [18]. - The shipping index for Europe surged from 1,000 points in June 2020 to 10,000 points in October 2021, reflecting a recovery in global demand [18]. Group 5: Current and Future Trends - The period from 2023 to 2025 is characterized by geopolitical conflicts and resource nationalism, with significant events impacting supply chains [20][21]. - The ban on mining in Wa State in April 2023 led to a global tin supply crisis, with prices spiking due to reduced imports from China [21]. - The shipping index for Europe increased from 701.6 points in October 2023 to 4,769.9 points by July 2024, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply shortages [22]. Group 6: Key Insights - Market reversals are often triggered by sudden events (e.g., mine closures, wars) or strong policies (e.g., supply-side reforms, monetary easing) [25]. - Supply-demand mismatches, particularly under low inventory and rigid demand conditions, can lead to significant price volatility [25]. - The current market is in a "high volatility norm," with a focus on copper (due to new energy demand), shipping (geopolitical risks), and tin (resource scarcity) [26].

Core Viewpoint - The investment value of leading pig farming companies such as Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope will diverge as the industry reaches a scale rate of 70% and the pig cycle becomes smoother [3]. Group 1: Industry Characteristics - The pig farming industry has a low entry threshold, with a scale standard of only 500 pigs, but it conceals high operational challenges due to the need for large-scale, low-cost production [5]. - The pig cycle is characterized by supply and demand imbalances, influenced by factors such as feed prices and disease outbreaks, leading to price volatility and affecting profitability [6][8]. - The average annual output per sow in China is significantly lower than that in the US and Denmark, indicating inefficiencies in the industry [9]. Group 2: Company Performance and Strategies - Muyuan has rapidly grown to become the world's largest pig farming company, while Wens and New Hope have also achieved significant scale, with their operational paths being a focus of analysis [5][20]. - The scale of pig farming in China has increased from 41.8% in 2014 to 70.1% in 2024, with the top 20 companies accounting for 30.7% of the total output [28]. - Muyuan's self-breeding model allows for better cost control and efficiency compared to Wens and New Hope's model, which relies on partnerships with farmers [30][41]. Group 3: Financial Health and Debt Management - Muyuan and New Hope have seen their debt levels rise, with debt financing comprising about 40% and 45% of their total assets, respectively, while Wens has maintained a lower debt ratio [52][59]. - The liquidity ratios indicate that Wens has a more stable financial position compared to Muyuan and New Hope, which are under tighter liquidity conditions [61][62]. - New Hope's reliance on long-term financing for its pig farming operations has led to increasing liquidity pressures, with a net outflow of cash in recent years [64]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Wens is expected to have continued growth potential due to its financial capacity to expand, while Muyuan and New Hope may face challenges in further expansion due to liquidity constraints [66]. - The pig cycle is anticipated to smooth out over time, reducing its impact on large-scale investments and expansions in the industry [19].

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [2] - The strategy views and investment logics in the report are based on the publicly released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change compared to the closing price of the previous Friday [2] Market Data Commodities - Positive weekly changes were seen in螺纹钢 (2.57%), 铁矿石 (2.23%), 生猪 (2.14%), 白银 (1.44%), 黄金 (1.39%), 棕榈油 (1.15%), 原油 (1.00%), 焦炭 (0.81%), 玻璃 (0.69%), 豆粕 (0.27%), 铝 (0.27%), 甲醇 (0.25%), and 乙二醇 (0.14%) - Negative weekly changes were observed in 铜 (-0.24%), PVC (-0.26%), 玉米 (-1.30%), and PTA (-1.42%) [3] A - shares - Positive weekly changes were recorded in 沪深300 (1.54%), 上证50 (1.21%), and 中证500 (0.81%) [3] Overseas Stocks - Positive weekly changes were seen in 标普500 (1.72%), 纳斯达克指数 (1.62%), and 富时100 (0.27%) - Negative weekly changes were observed in 法国CAC40 (-0.85%), 日经225 (-1.52%), and 恒生指数 (-0.28%) [3][4] Bonds - Negative weekly changes were recorded in 中国国债10 - year (-0.06%), 中国国债2 - year (-0.85%), and 中国国债5 - year (-1.52%) [4] Foreign Exchange - Negative weekly changes were observed in 欧元兑美元 (-0.48%), 美元中间价 (-0.91%), and 美元指数 (-1.49%) [4] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: 6 - month PMI data improved marginally; last week's net financing purchase funds continued to increase; the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting emphasized "anti - involution" in the construction of a unified market, raising expectations for a new round of supply - side reform; industrial shareholder shareholding reductions increased while company buybacks significantly increased; average daily trading volume was 1.44 trillion yuan, slightly higher than last week - Bearish logics: US employment data was strong, reducing short - term interest rate cut expectations; after the small - and medium - cap stocks rose, the market's willingness to reduce holdings was strong; current indices are approaching last October's highs, and valuations are higher than historical averages; Trump pressured countries on tariffs again, increasing uncertainties [5] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: Monetary policy is expected to be loose, maintaining a relatively loose liquidity environment; government bond supply pressure is controllable, and the issuance rhythm is stable; in the first and middle of the month, the capital market is seasonally loose, and DR007 remains in a low range; weak fundamental recovery supports the bond market - Bearish logics: June PMI rebounded month - on - month, showing economic resilience; long - term bond prices are high, and more momentum is needed to break through previous highs; fiscal policy efforts may drive a phased improvement in economic data [5] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The Northern Hemisphere is still in the peak oil consumption season; crude oil inventories continue to decline; Russia is gradually implementing production cuts; there may be a new round of fiscal expansion due to the US tax - cut bill; oil price downside risks have been largely released after a significant previous decline - Bearish logics: OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, and the pace is faster than expected; the Israel - Iran conflict has ended, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to decline; during the autumn maintenance of global refineries, a supply - demand mismatch may lead to a significant increase in crude oil inventories; crude oil supply in North America has increased [6] Agricultural Products Sector Palm Oil - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The US 45Z Act was passed, boosting the demand for biodiesel, soybean oil, and palm oil; India's palm oil imports soared by 61% in June, showing strong demand; institutions expect a decline in Malaysia's palm oil production and an increase in exports in June, with a slight expected decline in inventory; Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July, indicating a strong willingness to support prices - Bearish logics: The arrival volume of palm oil in China has increased, the basis has weakened, and import profits are inverted; global tariff disputes have intensified, and macro risks have dampened market sentiment; oil mills have high operating rates, and the accumulation of soybean oil inventory suppresses the overall performance of oils and fats [6] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The macro - environment has improved, boosting market sentiment and aluminum prices; the recovery of the monthly spread shows strong industrial support under low inventories; the increase in the proportion of aluminum water in the industry delays the accumulation of visible inventories; aluminum ingot inventories remain at a low level, providing support for prices - Bearish logics: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has shown an inflection point of accumulation, weakening the support; the processing fee of downstream aluminum rods has fallen to negative, which may trigger a negative feedback in the industrial chain; high aluminum prices have suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, and the spot price has turned to a discount; the demand for photovoltaic components and exports has shown a downward inflection point; terminal demand has entered the off - season, and orders have significantly declined [7] Chemicals Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The spot market has formed a positive feedback, and price increases in areas such as Shahe have driven the sentiment of taking positions in the spot and futures markets; the expectation of seasonal improvement in demand in the second half of the year has increased, and the marginal improvement in apparent demand is evident; prices are at a low level, and there is a need for valuation repair - Bearish logics: Warehouse receipts in Hubei are suppressing the futures market, and the high - inventory pressure has not been alleviated; the glass produced by previously ignited production lines is gradually coming onto the market, slightly increasing supply pressure; the sustainability of inventory hoarding by the trading end is questionable, and there may be another round of destocking after the mid - stream replenishment; the weak trend in the real estate sector has not changed clearly, and insufficient terminal orders are suppressing demand elasticity [7] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the rising debt risk have increased the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset; global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, and the willingness to further increase holdings in the future is high; there is a potential downward revision risk in non - farm payroll data and a possible rebound in the unemployment rate, strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts; high uncertainty in trade policies and the trend of anti - globalization support safe - haven assets - Bearish logics: The tariff negotiation has been postponed to August 1st, leading to a temporary rebound in market risk appetite; the US dollar index may rebound after a continuous decline, suppressing the price of gold; the easing of the Middle East situation has weakened the geopolitical premium, and speculative long - positions have taken profits [8] Black Metals Sector Coking Coal - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: Downstream coking and steel enterprises are replenishing inventories periodically, and coking coal trading is good; the "anti - involution" policy has raised expectations for supply - side reform, boosting market sentiment; the customs clearance of Mongolian coal is low, and prices have rebounded; the inventory at ports and mines has decreased well, and spot prices are stable with a slight increase - Bearish logics: Previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the marginal increase in supply is suppressing price increases; after the spot price rebounds, the pressure from hedging positions appears, and the basis repair may limit the upward movement; after the fourth round of price cuts for coke, the futures market has priced in the expected price increase; the rebound is a repair of low valuations, and further upward movement requires improvement in demand [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The new round of "Supply - side Reform" centered around "Anti - involution" mainly focuses on the disorderly competition in the mid - downstream manufacturing and emerging industries. It aims to build a unified large market, promote economic circulation, optimize supply quality through reform, and ultimately achieve industrial upgrading and high - quality development. The regulation requires more complex institutional innovation and market mechanisms, and involves industry self - discipline, improvement of laws and regulations, and standardization of local government behavior. After being set by the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, it will be a key mid - term policy task, and its effect release may be milder than the previous round of supply - side reform [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Previous Round of "Supply - side Reform" 1.1 Progress of the Previous Round of "Supply - side Reform" The policy of reducing over - capacity started to appear in 2013. In 2015, "Supply - side Structural Reform" was first proposed, and in 2016, a more systematic "Three Reductions, One Lowering, and One Filling" framework was formed. The scope of over - capacity reduction expanded in 2017, and policies for cost reduction and de - leveraging were also introduced [7][8]. 1.2 Characteristics of the Previous Round of "Supply - side Reform" The tasks of "Three Reductions, One Lowering, and One Filling" formed a systematic policy framework, with over - capacity reduction in upstream resource products like steel and coal being the core. There were clear over - capacity reduction targets and supporting measures for employment stability [10][12]. 1.3 Effects of the Previous Round of "Supply - side Reform" From 2016 - 2018, it exceeded the over - capacity reduction targets for steel and coal. Raw material prices ended their long - term slump, PPI turned positive in September 2016, and the profitability of enterprises was restored [13]. 2. Connotation and Goals of the New Round of "Supply - side Reform" - "Anti - involution" On July 1, 2025, the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting and an article in Qiushi Journal raised the expectation of a new round of "Supply - side Reform" through "Anti - involution". It aims to solve the problem of low prices in some fields caused by unfair competition and local protectionism, covering both traditional and emerging industries [15][18]. 3. Timeline of "Anti - involution" Policy Introduction The concept of "Anti - involution" was first proposed in the Politburo meeting in July 2024. After the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting on July 1, 2025, it became more prominent. Since June 2025, industry organizations have accelerated the implementation of "Anti - involution" policies [20][21]. 4. Differences between the Two Rounds of "Supply - side Reform" 4.1 Different Targets for Over - capacity Reduction The previous round targeted the over - capacity of upstream traditional resource products, while the current round focuses on the over - competition in emerging industries and the mid - downstream manufacturing industries [22][23]. 4.2 Different Ownership of Over - capacity Enterprises In the previous round, state - owned enterprises in upstream resource industries accounted for a high proportion. In this round, private enterprises in mid - downstream and emerging industries such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles account for a higher proportion, and market - oriented methods can be better used for over - capacity reduction [28]. 4.3 Different Policy Purposes and Implementation Methods The previous round repaired the deflation environment and improved corporate profits, while this round aims to build a unified large market, promote economic circulation, and achieve high - quality development. The previous round mainly used administrative measures, while this round requires more complex institutional innovation and market mechanisms [32]. 5. Outlook for the Follow - up of the Current Round of "Anti - involution" The "Anti - involution" policy is expected to be continuously implemented and may become an important mid - term policy direction. Policies are expected to be more diversified, legalized, and market - oriented, and supply - side policy intensification and demand - side support will go hand in hand [35][36]. 6. Research Feedback and Impact Outlook of Some Commodities on the "Anti - involution" Policy The previous round of supply - side reform effectively reduced over - capacity in upstream resource industries, and their current capacity utilization rates are not low. The marginal increment of this "Anti - involution" lies in emerging industries. However, there are difficulties in policy implementation in emerging industries, and the effect release may be weaker than the previous round [40][41].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain has returned to the market spotlight after four years, with significant stock price increases across various segments, indicating a strong market recovery and investor interest [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - On July 8, A-share photovoltaic concept stocks saw three stocks hit the 20% daily limit, with nearly 30 stocks rising over 10%, showcasing a rare market phenomenon [1]. - As of July 9, nearly 70 photovoltaic concept stocks had increased by over 10% in July, with 25 stocks rising over 20%, marking it as a significant month for the sector [8]. Price Trends and Influences - The recent surge in the photovoltaic industry began in late June following important government commentary on "anti-involution" and subsequent meetings [5]. - Key stocks like Xinling Electric and Yamaton have shown remarkable price increases, with Xinling Electric rising 62.45% over five trading days [9][10]. - The price of polysilicon, a critical material for photovoltaic cells, has seen a significant increase, with a recent rise of 7% and a cumulative increase of over 30% [11]. Industry Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a strong recovery driven by policy support and rising material prices, leading to a high degree of certainty in valuation recovery [14]. - Historical patterns indicate that the industry has undergone several supply contraction cycles, suggesting potential for further price increases [17][18]. Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The photovoltaic sector has faced significant valuation pressures, with many companies experiencing up to 80% declines since their peak in 2021 [19][20]. - Despite the challenges, there are signs of stabilization, with industry losses narrowing and potential for performance recovery among leading companies [21][22]. - The photovoltaic ETF has outperformed many individual stocks, indicating a favorable investment vehicle for exposure to the sector [23]. Broader Implications - The "anti-involution" trend is not limited to photovoltaics but extends to other sectors such as construction materials and chemicals, suggesting a broader market recovery [24][25]. - The potential for significant investment opportunities exists, particularly for leading companies and those with competitive advantages in the current market environment [26].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses three potential paths for the construction materials industry to counteract "involution," aiming to alleviate deflation and stabilize employment. These paths include limiting capital expenditure, clearing existing production capacity, and constraining current output [6][7] - The report highlights the ongoing decline in cement prices and a decrease in glass inventory, indicating a weak demand environment [8] - Recommendations include focusing on special glass fiber and the African supply chain, with leading companies in existing markets being the main investment focus for the year [9] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report emphasizes the need for the construction materials industry to adapt to economic pressures through various strategies to manage supply and demand effectively [6][7] Market Performance - Cement prices have continued to decline, with the national average price dropping by 1.2% due to weak market demand and production issues [8][25] - The average cement price is reported at 353.39 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 41.13% [25] Recommendations - Special glass fiber is highlighted as a key area for investment, particularly in companies like China National Materials Technology, which is positioned to benefit from domestic substitution trends [9] - The African supply chain is also recommended, with companies like Keda Manufacturing showing strong performance in niche markets [9] Demand Trends - The report notes a significant decline in real estate transaction volumes, with a 17% year-on-year decrease in new home sales across 30 major cities [8] - The construction materials sector is expected to see a shift towards existing inventory products, driven by improved demand in the second-hand housing market and urban renovation policies [9]