Report Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral [7]. - The rating for BR is neutral [7]. Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, with decreasing rainfall in major production areas, raw material prices may rise, weakening cost - side support. Despite average downstream demand, tire factory开工率 is expected to rebound this week as it's the traditional peak season. Port and social inventories are currently decreasing but may rise again after downstream stocking [7]. - For BR, some upstream devices are under maintenance, expected to reduce supply. With the rebound of tire factory开工率 and the peak - season effect, demand is expected to improve. The price may rise, but the impact of weak crude oil on upstream raw materials should be noted [7]. Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,980 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,715 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1]. Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; Thai 20 - standard rubber was 1,865 US dollars/ton, unchanged; Indonesian 20 - standard rubber was 1,785 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information Import and Export - In August 2025, China imported 66.4 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), up 7.8% year - on - year. From January to August, the total import was 537.3 tons, up 19% year - on - year [2]. - In the first 8 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports were 1.05 million tons, up 14.4% year - on - year. In August, exports increased 14.8% year - on - year but decreased 8.9% month - on - month [2]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, down 1% month - on - month and up 35% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative sales were about 708,000 vehicles, up 13% year - on - year [2]. - In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand exported 1.586 million tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber), down 5% year - on - year. Among them, standard rubber exports were 919,000 tons, down 15% year - on - year; smoked sheet rubber exports were 227,000 tons, up 25% year - on - year; latex exports were 431,000 tons, up 9% year - on - year [2]. - From January to July, Thailand exported 622,000 tons of natural rubber to China, up 7% year - on - year. Among them, standard rubber exports to China were 398,000 tons, down 15% year - on - year; smoked sheet rubber exports to China were 65,000 tons, up 306% year - on - year; latex exports to China were 157,000 tons, up 65% year - on - year [3]. - In the first 7 months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports were 5.63 million tons, up 5.4% year - on - year, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, up 5.4% year - on - year. From January to July, automobile tire exports were 4.8 million tons, up 4.9% year - on - year, and the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, up 4.9% year - on - year [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On September 10, 2025, the RU basis was - 880 yuan/ton (+10), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 980 yuan/ton (+40), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,428 yuan/ton (+88.02), the NR basis was 538.00 yuan/ton (+30.00); whole latex was 15,100 yuan/ton (+50), mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (+0), 3L spot was 15,300 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,865 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 200 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,700 yuan/ton (+0) [4]. Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.98 baht/kg (- 0.12), Thai latex was 56.00 baht/kg (+0.00), Thai cup lump was 52.55 baht/kg (- 0.40), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.45 baht/kg (+0.40) [5]. 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 60.74% (- 4.15%), and that of semi - steel tires was 66.92% (- 4.05%) [6]. Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,257,715 tons (- 7,183.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 592,275 tons (- 10,020), the RU futures inventory was 162,230 tons (- 16,410), and the NR futures inventory was 46,569 tons (+907) [6]. 顺丁橡胶 Spot and Spreads - On September 10, 2025, the BR basis was - 70 yuan/ton (- 130), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,350 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private - owned顺丁橡胶 in Shandong was 11,580 yuan/ton (- 70), and the import profit of顺丁橡胶 in Northeast Asia was - 1,506 yuan/ton (- 50) [6]. 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis顺丁橡胶 was 76.16% (+0.31%) [6]. Inventory - The trade inventory of顺丁橡胶 was 8,210 tons (+950), and the enterprise inventory of顺丁橡胶 was 26,300 tons (+1,650) [6]. Strategy - For natural rubber, due to the expected increase in raw material prices in major production areas, the cost - side support will weaken. Although downstream demand is average, with the rebound of tire factory开工率 in the peak season, demand is expected to improve. Port and social inventories are currently decreasing but may rise after downstream stocking [7]. - For BR, with some upstream device maintenance, supply is expected to decrease. With the rebound of tire factory开工率 in the peak season, demand is expected to improve. The price may rise, but the impact of weak crude oil on upstream raw materials should be noted [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to fluctuate [6] - **Protein Meal**: Expected to fluctuate [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Expected to fluctuate [8] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate [11] - **Cotton**: Expected to fluctuate in the short - term [12] - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the long - term, and run in the 5500 - 5750 range in the short - term [14] - **Pulp**: Expected to fluctuate [15] - **Double - Glue Paper**: Expected to fluctuate [16] - **Logs**: Expected to stop falling and stabilize [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by the relatively bearish MPOB report, the market sentiment is weak, and it may continue to adjust. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [6]. - **Protein Meal**: The market has both long and short factors, and the market will continue to fluctuate narrowly. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [6]. - **Corn and Starch**: Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the fourth quarter. There is a short - term tight supply, and a short - term long - term long pattern is expected [7]. - **Hogs**: The expectation of "anti - involution" boosts the market. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the cycle is still under supply pressure. In the long - term, if the capacity - reduction policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will be gradually weakened. Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: After the decline, it stabilizes, and there will still be fluctuations in the short - term. The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It returns to the fluctuating trend. The short - term price of butadiene is expected to rise slightly, and the market may fluctuate strongly [11]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price fluctuates within the range. Try short - term long positions when the price reaches the lower limit of the range [12]. - **Sugar**: In the long - term, the sugar price has a downward driving force due to the expected supply surplus in the new season. In the short - term, it runs in the 5500 - 5750 range, and pay attention to the support at 5500 [14]. - **Pulp**: The pulp futures fluctuate sharply with the listing of double - glue paper. It is expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Double - Glue Paper**: The fundamentals are weak, but the listing price is neutral to low. Consider range operation between 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to the limited expected decline in US soybean yield per unit, combined with the impact of oil - meal arbitrage, US soybeans and soybean oil fell on Tuesday. The MPOB report is bearish, and domestic oils and fats fluctuated and fell yesterday. The US soybean is affected by drought, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may peak. The MPOB report on palm oil is bearish, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly falling but still high year - on - year [6]. - **Outlook**: Affected by the bearish MPOB report, the market sentiment is weak and may continue to adjust [6]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the Fed's rate cut in September is almost certain. There are factors such as the possible occurrence of La Nina and the expected increase in Brazil's soybean exports. Domestically, the state reserve plans to sell 22,500 tons of imported soybeans, and the soybean import volume is large. The demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [6]. - **Outlook**: Both domestic and international markets will continue to fluctuate within the range. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The supply is short - term tight, and the demand has a phased increase. With the approaching of the new grain listing, the selling pressure will gradually appear in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Outlook**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies when the new grain is concentratedly listed. Consider reverse arbitrage [7]. 3.4 Hogs - **Logic**: The Ministry of Agriculture plans to hold a symposium on hog production capacity regulation enterprises on September 16. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. In the long - term, the "anti - involution" policy may drive the price to strengthen in 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: The spot price is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Logic**: The rubber market stabilizes after a sharp decline. The short - term fundamentals are strong, and there are many speculative themes. The supply increase may be postponed, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm recovers after the price decline [9]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR market stabilizes after a large decline and returns to the fluctuating trend. It follows the natural rubber market, and the cost of raw material butadiene provides support. The supply and demand fundamentals support the market to fluctuate in a narrow range [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price of butadiene may rise slightly, and the market may fluctuate strongly [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The domestic cotton market has low inventory and marginal improvement in demand. The new cotton commercial inventory is tight, and the demand is improving but the upward driving force is insufficient. Wait for the new cotton purchase price to give direction [12]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate in the short - term. Try short - term long positions when the price reaches the lower limit of the range [12]. 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: In the new season, although the drought in Brazil reduces the sugarcane yield, the sugar production is expected to increase due to the high sugar - making ratio. The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to increase. The domestic supply marginally increases, and the sugar price has a downward driving force [14]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the sugar price may decline. In the short - term, it runs in the 5500 - 5750 range, and pay attention to the support at 5500 [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures fluctuate sharply with the listing of double - glue paper. The supply and demand change little, and it may be due to emotional speculation. The needle - broadleaf pattern is differentiated, and the price may continue to decline [15]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [15]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Logic**: The fundamentals are bearish, with over - supply in the industry, declining demand, and high inventory. The listing price is neutral to low, and consider range operation between 4000 - 4500. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage in the early stage of listing [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are weak, but the listing price is neutral to low. Consider range operation [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Logic**: The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19]. - **Outlook**: The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19].

Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices increased on Wednesday, with WTI October contract closing at $63.67 per barrel, up $1.04, a rise of 1.66%. Brent November contract closed at $67.49 per barrel, also up $1.10, a rise of 1.66% [2] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory rose by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels as of the week ending September 5. U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 2.8 million barrels per day [2] - The geopolitical risks are influencing oil prices, leading to fluctuations in the market [2] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2510 rose by 1.44% to 2827 yuan/ton, while the low-sulfur main contract LU2511 increased by 0.48% to 3383 yuan/ton [3] - An increase in supply from Singapore has been noted, with more low-sulfur fuel oil components flowing from Western markets to Asia [3] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is weakening due to low demand for raw materials ahead of the autumn refinery maintenance season [3] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2510 closed up 0.55% at 3463 yuan/ton. Domestic asphalt inventory levels increased to 27.11%, a rise of 0.66% week-on-week [4] - The operating rate of domestic asphalt plants decreased to 39.59%, down 0.63% week-on-week [4] - The upcoming demand peak in September is expected to ease supply-demand conflicts, potentially leading to further price increases [4] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2601 rose by 40 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, while NR main contract fell by 20 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton [5] - China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons, a decline of 0.57% [5] - The market is expected to remain strong due to stable demand and inventory depletion [5] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4698 yuan/ton, up 0.43%, while EG2601 closed at 4319 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [6] - PX main contract closed at 6770 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, with spot prices at $838 per ton [6] - The PX supply is recovering, and downstream TA is expected to improve as maintenance is completed [6] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2295 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $261-$265 per ton [7] - Domestic supply is expected to gradually recover as production resumes, while Iranian shipments remain stable [7] - The market is anticipated to reach a temporary bottom as inventory levels peak after mid-month [7] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for East China PP were between 6750-6960 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [8] - Demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the "golden September and silver October" demand season [8] - The market is transitioning towards a balanced supply-demand scenario, but cost pressures remain [8] PVC - PVC market prices in East China are stabilizing, with electric stone method prices ranging from 4620-4730 yuan/ton [9] - Domestic construction activity is recovering, but overall demand remains weak compared to last year [9] - The market faces high inventory pressure, leading to a gradual compression of production profits [9] Urea - Urea prices continued to trend weakly, with the main contract closing at 1669 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [10] - The supply level remains stable, but demand sentiment is weak, with low sales rates reported [10] - The market is under pressure due to inventory increases and limited new export expectations [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices remained firm, with the main contract closing at 1281 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [12] - The market is stable, with production levels declining due to increased maintenance and equipment changes [12] - Overall, the market lacks new driving forces, but macro sentiment continues to support prices [12] Glass - Glass futures prices showed stability, with the main contract closing at 1181 yuan/ton, down 1.5% [13] - The domestic float glass market average price was 1164 yuan/ton, with a slight increase [13] - Demand sentiment remains positive, but no significant improvements in supply-demand balance are observed [13]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - A-shares are experiencing a volatile rebound with the technology sector leading. After a significant increase, A-shares may enter a high-level volatile pattern. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial for the equity market. [3] - The bond market sentiment is weak, with continued capital convergence and falling bond futures. There is a possibility of over - selling in the bond market, and the 10 - year bond yield may continue to rise. [3] - Precious metals are in a high - level volatile state after digesting geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations. [3] - Various commodities have different trends and trading suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.29%, - 0.06%, - 0.99%, and - 1.10% respectively. A-shares are in a volatile rebound, and after a large increase, they may enter a high - level volatile pattern. Wait for volatility to converge before entering the market. [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year bond yield has not stabilized at 1.8%. T2512 has broken through the previous low. Suggest investors to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought cautiously at low levels, or short - sell out - of - the - money options to capture volatility decline. Silver can be traded in the range of $40 - 42, and also sell out - of - the - money options. [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of EC is weakly volatile. Consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices remain weak. Pay attention to the support levels of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils. Long positions should exit and wait. [3] - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and port clearance has slightly declined. The iron ore price is running strongly. Buy the 2601 contract at low levels in the range of 780 - 830, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are weakly volatile, coal mines are resuming production and destocking. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1070 - 1170, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coke**: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, compressing coking profits with more room for cuts. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1550 - 1650, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coke arbitrage position. [3] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak US PPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations. Pay attention to Thursday's inflation data. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000. [3] - **Alumina**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2900 - 3200. [3] - **Aluminum**: The weekly start - up rate of processed products is continuously recovering. Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000. [3] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own reference price range and trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market sentiment. [3] Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risk premiums support the oil price rebound, but the loose supply - demand fundamentals limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see. For options, wait for volatility to increase for spread - widening opportunities. [3] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand expectations, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided, such as range trading, short - selling, or waiting and seeing. [3] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: There is a bearish outlook for palm oil due to inventory growth and weak exports. Pay attention to the support levels of various agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar. [3] - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig market has limited supply - demand contradictions. The corn market has limited upward potential in the short term. [3] Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the futures price. Pay attention to the actual progress. [3] - **Rubber**: After the macro - sentiment fades, the rubber price is falling in a volatile manner. Wait and see. [3] New Energy - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Pay attention to the Silicon Industry Conference. Due to news - related disturbances, the futures prices are falling. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Wait and see. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by news, the sentiment in the market has weakened significantly, but the fundamentals remain in a tight - balance state. Wait and see, and pay attention to the performance around 72,000. [3]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of September 10, cup rubber is priced at 52.55 THB/kg, down by 0.40 THB, while latex is at 56.00 THB/kg, unchanged [1] - In Yunnan, the purchase price for rubber water is 14,500 CNY/ton, while in Hainan, the private sector price is 15,900 CNY/ton, down by 400 CNY [1] - In Qingdao Free Trade Zone, the price for Thai standard rubber is 1,860 USD/ton, and Thai mixed rubber is at 15,000 CNY/ton, both unchanged [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate for Chinese semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 66.92%, down by 4.05 percentage points month-on-month and down by 12.98 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for Chinese all-steel tire sample enterprises is 60.74%, down by 4.15 percentage points month-on-month and down by 1.12 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Shandong, the average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 45.85 days, down by 0.29 days month-on-month and up by 10.04 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 38.88 days, down by 0.34 days month-on-month and down by 3.99 days year-on-year [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Côte d'Ivoire's rubber export volume reached 1.05 million tons in the first eight months of 2025, a 14.4% increase from 0.92 million tons in the same period of 2024 [2] - The export volume in August alone increased by 14.8% year-on-year but decreased by 8.9% month-on-month [2] - The overall supply situation is supported by a slight decline in overseas raw material prices, while inventory continues to decrease [2] - As enterprises resume operations, production capacity utilization is expected to improve, although some companies are still facing production constraints [2] Price Outlook - The price range for natural rubber contracts is expected to be between 15,000 and 16,500 CNY, with attention on the main production areas and potential impacts from La Niña on supply [2]

1. Natural Rubber Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little. There is still support from the upstream cost side, while downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak season of the main producing areas and whether the La Niña phenomenon affects the supply. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling at high prices; if the supply is poor, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. - **Summary by Section**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 10, the price of Yunnan Guofu mobile phone glue (SCRWF) in Shanghai dropped to 15,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31%. The new spread decreased by 34.78%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 15,000 yuan/ton. The price of cup rubber in the international market increased slightly, while the price of glue remained unchanged. The price of raw materials in Hainan increased by 1.49% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 0.51%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 22.22%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.49% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, India's decreased by 2.17%, and China's decreased by 1.3%. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires and all - steel tires decreased. The domestic tire production in July decreased by 8.16%, while the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires increased by 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 2.47%, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 5.40%. The production cost of Thai dry glue increased, and the production profit margin of STR20 decreased significantly [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 1.99%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry glue in Qingdao showed different changes [1]. 2. Polysilicon Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In September, although there is a reduction in supply on the supply side, factory resumptions offset it, so the overall supply reduction is not obvious. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - demand situation in September may show a slight de - stocking pattern. The price increase of polysilicon has been gradually accepted by downstream enterprises, and the spot transmission mechanism is smooth. However, the futures market mainly trades policy expectations, and short - term price fluctuations should be vigilant [2]. - **Summary by Section**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 10, the average price of N - type re - feed decreased by 0.10%, the N - type granular silicon price remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis increased by 30.47%. The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable, while some showed small changes [2]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 1.19%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 104.65%, and the spreads between other contracts showed different degrees of change [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly, the silicon wafer production increased by 3.53%, and the polysilicon production decreased by 2.58%. Monthly, the polysilicon production increased by 23.31%, the import volume increased by 40.30%, the export volume increased by 5.96%, and the net export volume decreased by 14.92%. The silicon wafer production increased by 6.24%, the import volume decreased by 15.41%, the export volume increased by 11.37%, and the net export volume increased by 15.56%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 0.14% [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.94%, the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 6.65%, and the polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 7.28% [2]. 3. Industrial Silicon Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will increase during the dry season, raising the cost of industrial silicon. Although the current production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In the short - term, the supply - demand is in a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will be reduced. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Summary by Section**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 10, the prices of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged. The basis of different types of industrial silicon decreased to varying degrees [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 206.25%, the 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 66.67%, the 2511 - 2512 spread remained unchanged, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 200.00% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly, the national industrial silicon production increased by 14.01%, the production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan all increased, and the national and regional start - up rates also increased. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 11.66%, the polysilicon production increased by 23.31%, the regenerative aluminum alloy production decreased by 1.60%, and the industrial silicon export volume increased by 8.32% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang increased slightly, the factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased, the social inventory decreased by 0.74%, the warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.53% [3]. 4. Log Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The log market is in a volatile pattern. The spot market is weakening, and the enthusiasm of traders for imports is decreasing. The arrival volume remains low, and the supply in September is expected to continue at a low level. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters but has not improved significantly. The futures valuation is relatively low, and it is in the stage of bottom - seeking. It is recommended to go long at low prices [4]. - **Summary by Section**: - **Futures and Spot Price**: On September 10, the 2509 contract of logs increased by 0.12%, the 2511 contract increased by 0.06%, and the 2601 contract decreased slightly. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of different contracts showed small changes. The spot prices of various types of logs in ports remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply**: Monthly, the port shipping volume decreased by 1.51%, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32%. The arrival volume of 12 ports in China last week was about 170,000 cubic meters, a new low this year, and the expected arrival volume this week is about 402,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 136% [4]. - **Inventory**: Weekly, the total inventory of coniferous logs in the country decreased to 2.94 million cubic meters as of September 5 [4]. - **Demand**: Weekly, the average daily outbound volume of logs decreased slightly but remained above 60,000 cubic meters as of September 5 [4]. 5. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: - **Soda Ash**: The futures market continues to be weak and volatile. The fundamental logic of oversupply persists. Although the inventory has not increased significantly this week, it has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has increased significantly. The weekly production has returned to a high level of 750,000 tons. In the medium - term, the downstream demand for soda ash will remain at the previous rigid - demand level. After the traditional summer maintenance season in the soda ash industry, the supply is high. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices on rebounds [5]. - **Glass**: The news of the conversion of coal - gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area at the beginning of the week triggered a rise in the futures market, but the specific conversion time is undetermined, and the expected shutdown time is limited. There are still some restart and ignition plans in the future. The factory inventory in the Shahe area is gradually increasing, and the middle - stream inventory has not been significantly reduced. The deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear capacity to solve the over - supply problem. Short - term observation is recommended, and the actual demand in the peak season should be focused on in the medium - term [5]. - **Summary by Section**: - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in different regions showed small changes. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 decreased, and the spread between 05 contracts increased [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained unchanged. The price of soda ash 2505 decreased slightly, the price of 2509 increased slightly, and the basis of 05 contracts increased [5]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate of soda ash increased by 4.55%, and the weekly production increased by 4.55%. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased by 0.77%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.43%, the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 8.03%, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days decreased by 12.54% [5]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area showed different degrees of decline [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, believing that the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan/barrel, or 0.58%, to 486.20 yuan/barrel [1] - **Inventory Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.94 million barrels to 424.65 million barrels, a 0.94% increase; SPR increased by 0.51 million barrels to 405.22 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 1.46 million barrels to 220.00 million barrels, a 0.67% increase; diesel inventories increased by 4.72 million barrels to 120.64 million barrels, a 4.07% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.30 million barrels to 21.21 million barrels, a 6.51% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.47 million barrels to 43.27 million barrels, a 1.11% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 2407 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 112 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has further increased, coal prices have slightly declined, and corporate profits are generally good. Overseas production has returned to a year - on - year high, and there is still import pressure. The port MTO load has slightly increased, and profits have continued to improve, but traditional demand is still weak. It is expected that the decline space is limited, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spreads [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract fell 14 yuan/ton to 1669 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9 [6] - **Analysis**: As the spot price weakens, corporate profits have further declined, and the production start - up rate has significantly decreased, reducing supply pressure. However, demand is weak, and port inventories are rising. It is expected that the price will move within a range, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated weakly, following the trend of industrial products such as coking coal. Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 15000 (0) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1845 (- 5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1855 (+ 5) dollars [9][12] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that rubber production in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, may be limited, the seasonality of rubber usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro - expectations are uncertain, demand is in the off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected. It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view, but a neutral view in the short - term, either waiting and watching or making quick trades [10][12] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 10 yuan to 4857 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 207 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 (+ 6) yuan/ton [14] - **Analysis**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, and high production. Domestic demand is at a five - year low, and export expectations have weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices, but also beware of short - term upward movements [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, while the futures price rose, and the basis weakened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward correction space [16] - **Analysis**: The cost - side pure benzene production is in a neutral and volatile state, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the production start - up rate of styrene has continued to rise. The port inventory has continued to decline significantly. In the long - term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the styrene price may rebound after the inventory decline inflection point [16][17] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 7226 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7220 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 6 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton [19] - **Analysis**: There is only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is declining from a high level. The seasonal peak season may be coming, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. In the long - term, the price may fluctuate upward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 6948 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6955 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 7 yuan/ton, strengthening by 1 yuan/ton [20] - **Analysis**: There is still 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, with high supply pressure. The downstream production start - up rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [20] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 44 yuan to 6770 yuan, the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 838 dollars, and the basis was 94 yuan (- 22) [22] - **Analysis**: The PX production load is at a high level, and although the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance in the short - term, the PX inventory accumulation is not large due to new PTA device production. The terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices during the peak season [22][23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 20 yuan to 4698 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4625 yuan, and the basis was - 63 yuan (0) [24] - **Analysis**: The supply - side unexpected maintenance has increased, and the inventory accumulation pattern has turned into de - stocking, but the processing fee is suppressed. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure is low, and the downstream and terminal production start - up rates have improved, but the terminal recovery speed is slow. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [24] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan to 4319 yuan, the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4439 yuan, and the basis was 117 yuan (- 15) [25] - **Analysis**: Overseas and domestic maintenance devices have gradually started, and the production start - up rate has reached a high level. The domestic supply is high. In the short - term, the port inventory is expected to be low due to less arrival volume, but it will turn into inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The valuation is currently relatively high year - on - year, and there is downward pressure in the medium - term [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including their fundamental logic, technical analysis, and trading strategies. Most products show a bearish or neutral outlook, with suggestions mainly to hold short positions or wait and see. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ started the second - phase 165,000 barrels/day复产 plan, with an expected large surplus after the first - phase复产. The second - phase复产 combined with the demand shift from peak to off - season will increase supply and decrease demand. South American situation is tense but not significantly worsened, and the fundamental drive is downward [2][3]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's rebound is for testing the short - term pressure at 489 (11 contract) [3]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 489 [3]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: Weekly开工 increased slightly but there are unplanned overhauls. Downstream profits are poor, ABS and EPS开工 decreased, and port inventory continued to accumulate. After the autumn overhaul peak, new device commissioning in September - October will bring supply pressure, and the supply - demand pattern is weak [6]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure on the hourly chart is being tested. Today's intraday is oscillating, and it's a normal repair after the previous sharp drop. Standing above the short - term pressure of 7040 on the 10 - contract challenges the hourly downward structure [6]. - Strategy: Cautiously hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle, with a final take - profit at 7180 [6]. Rubber - Logic: Seasonal factors are strong, but there is no weather speculation on the supply side this year. Only short - term typhoons and rainy seasons make raw material prices temporarily strong. Imports increased in August. On the demand side, semi - steel tire开工 dropped significantly, while full - steel tire开工 remained high. The current fundamentals are neutral [9]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating structure on the daily chart, upward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating. After the previous technical breakthrough, the hourly level is considered an upward structure, with short - term support at 15880 [9]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand of styrene - butadiene rubber. Supply - side device overhauls led to a drop in开工 and output, and downstream semi - steel tire inventory also decreased. The main contradiction lies in the cost side of butadiene. With the arrival of cargo ships, port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply pressure will gradually materialize in the medium - term [13]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, waiting for the short - term trend structure to be established on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the hourly line closed at the lower edge of the oscillation range. Wait for the night session to verify the downward breakthrough [13]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the 15 - minute small cycle, with a take - profit reference of 11960 on the 15 - minute level [13]. PX - Logic: PX profit recovery and the end of the overhaul peak led to an increase in开工. The overall开工 of PTA decreased, and the previous destocking of PX slowed down. The short - term fundamentals weakened, and more attention should be paid to the cost - end impact of crude oil [16][19]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure on the hourly chart is being tested. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the hourly cycle's downward trend has not reversed. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper - edge pressure at 6770 [19]. - Strategy: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle [19]. PTA - Logic: It lacks its own driving force, and attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic of crude oil [20]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with the short - term pressure at 4700 [20]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a take - profit reference of 4700 [20]. PP - Logic: Supply - side开工 increased, and new devices will be put into operation in August - September. Demand entered the peak season, and the supply - demand pressure is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic [23]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the short - term pressure at 7090 is far. Pay attention to the 15 - minute short - cycle pressure at 6990, and partial take - profit can be done if it breaks through [23]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: Domestic and overseas methanol开工 remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate to a five - year high in September. Downstream demand weakened, and the short - term pressure is huge [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillating on the daily chart, short - term downward on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, with short - term pressure at 2435 [27]. - Strategy: Cautiously hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle, with the hourly line 2435 as the final take - profit [27]. PVC - Logic: Previous overhauls ended,开工 remained at a high of 75%. The strong comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali makes it difficult to reduce PVC supply. Inventory accumulated to the highest level in the same period, and demand is hard to improve before the real estate bottoms out [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the downward structure remains unchanged after a rebound. The short - term pressure is at 4965 [31][32]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Port inventory is at a multi - year low, making its fundamentals relatively strong compared to other energy and chemical products. However, with the increase in domestic开工, it is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. Short - term is strong, but medium - term is bearish [34]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 4375 [34]. - Strategy: Convert 15 - minute short positions to hourly positions, with a stop - loss reference of 4375 [34]. Plastic - Logic: PE开工 remained stable, and the demand improvement in the peak season is slow. The fundamental driving force is average [37]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the short - term pressure at 7365 is far. First, pay attention to the 15 - minute small - cycle pressure at 7305 [37]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the 15 - minute level, with a stop - loss reference of 7305 [37]. Soda Ash - Logic: After the anti - involution speculation ended, the glass - soda ash with the greatest supply - demand pressure entered the spot - futures regression logic before delivery. The anti - involution had no real impact on soda ash supply, and the over - capacity trend continued. High output and high inventory pressure increased since August, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [40]. - Technical Analysis: Downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 1320 [40]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [40]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Last week, supply - side output and开工 decreased due to autumn overhauls and transportation restrictions in Shandong during the parade. After the parade, the supply - side speculation may end. Demand - side exports are at a high level but with falling profits. Domestic non - aluminum demand increased in the early peak season, and alumina demand remained high. Overall, supply and demand are both strong, but supply pressure is greater, and the inventory is at a five - year high [42]. - Technical Analysis: Downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 2625 [42]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a take - profit reference of 2625 [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. With the digestion of previous bullish expectations, it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly closing higher on Wednesday. Affected by the weakening of domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, it is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating and stabilizing, and slightly closing higher on Wednesday. After the bearish expectations landed, the oil market stopped falling and stabilized, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend in the future [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 59.23 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.66%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.24%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.72%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.95 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.79 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.39 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of September 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a decrease of 4.05 percentage points from the previous period and 12.98 percentage points from the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a decrease of 4.15 percentage points from the previous period and 1.12 percentage points from the same period last year [8]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, and the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry declined [9]. - In August 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [9]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a slight decrease of 1% from July and an increase of about 35% from 62,500 vehicles in the same period last year. In the first 8 months of 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of September 5, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.72%, a week - on - week increase of 1.41%, a month - on - month increase of 3.37%, and a slight increase of 6.20% from the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output reached 1.9183 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0 tons, a month - on - month increase of 73,000 tons, and a significant increase of 144,200 tons from 1.7741 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of September 5, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.18%, a week - on - week increase of 0.06%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.89%, a week - on - week increase of 1.10%; the acetic acid operating rate was 79.43%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.03%; the MTBE operating rate was 55.81%, a week - on - week increase of 1.38% [10]. - As of the week of September 5, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.75% [10]. - As of September 5, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 265 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 156 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 169 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of September 5, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.1446 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 78,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 341,300 tons, and a significant increase of 175,500 tons from the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory was 341,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47,400 tons, and a significant decrease of 62,400 tons from 403,600 tons in the same period last year [11][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 29, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 412, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 71 from the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.423 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 123,000 barrels per day [14]. - As of the week of August 29, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 421 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.415 million barrels and a significant increase of 2.397 million barrels from the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.222 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.59 million barrels; the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 404.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 509,000 barrels [14]. - The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 94.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.30 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.0 percentage point [14]. - Since September 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile downward trend. As of September 2, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,428 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 7,044 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,635 contracts from the August average of 122,063 contracts, a decline of 16.09%. As of September 2, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 240,729 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 38,583 contracts and a significant increase of 38,411 contracts from the August average of 202,318 contracts, an increase of 18.99% [15]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | |--|--|--|--|--|--|--| | Shanghai Rubber | 15,050 yuan/ton | - 200 yuan/ton | 15,980 yuan/ton | + 40 yuan/ton | - 930 yuan/ton | - 240 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,305 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | 2,407 yuan/ton | + 9 yuan/ton | - 102 yuan/ton | - 4 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 459.6 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 486.2 yuan/barrel | + 3.4 yuan/barrel | - 26.6 yuan/barrel | - 3.1 yuan/barrel | [17] 3. Relevant Charts - For rubber, there are charts of rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22]. - For methanol, there are charts of methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35]. - For crude oil, there are charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [44][46][48].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. The supply in Yunnan is gradually increasing, and the raw material purchase price is firm. The raw material output in Hainan is seasonally increasing, but the factories are not willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, and the purchase price of latex is lowered. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, and the de - stocking rate has increased month - on - month. However, as tire factories become more risk - averse, the de - stocking rate of general trade inventory may narrow month - on - month. In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase this week as the production of maintenance enterprises resumes, but the increase in the start - up rate may be limited due to the general shipment of some enterprises and production control plans within the month. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,200 in the short term [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,980 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,715 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,265 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 150,595 lots, down 1,149 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 71,970 lots, up 1,042 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 31,120 lots, up 2,955 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 15,067 lots, down 1,107 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 155,250 tons, down 1,400 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 47,678 tons, up 604 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 690 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 940 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,389 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 654 yuan/ton, up 274 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 61.1 Thai baht/kg, down 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 58.45 Thai baht/kg, down 0.22 Thai baht. The market reference price of latex of Thai raw rubber was 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 211.2 US dollars/ton, down 16.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 14.4 US dollars/ton, down 21.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.78%, down 4.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 67.47%, down 5.3 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 38.88 days, down 0.34 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.85 days, down 0.29 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.75%, up 0.26 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.12%, up 0.26 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.1%, down 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.1%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From September 7th to 13th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southern Thailand and south - western Cambodia, etc., and the rainfall in most other areas was moderate, with a slight increase in the impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in central Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was moderate, with an enhanced impact on tapping. As of September 7th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.66%. The bonded area inventory was 72,300 tons, a decline of 1.24%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decline of 1.72%. The warehousing rate of the bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 0.95 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 1.79 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouses decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 0.39 percentage points. As of September 4th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a decrease of 4.05 percentage points month - on - month and 12.98 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a decrease of 4.15 percentage points month - on - month and 1.12 percentage points year - on - year. During the period, some enterprises in Dongying had a 3 - 4 - day maintenance plan, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate [2].