1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease [2] - Silver: Drops from the oscillation platform [2] - Copper: The market is cautious, and prices oscillate [2] - Zinc: There is support at the lower level [2] - Lead: Reduced overseas inventory supports prices [2] - Tin: Ranges within an interval [2] - Aluminum: Ranges within an interval; Alumina: Runs weakly; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: Pay attention to the lower edge of the defense area [2] - Palladium: Ranges within an interval [2] - Nickel: There are contradictions between the macro and the mine end, intensifying short - term long - short games; Stainless steel: Overseas macro factors suppress, while the actual cost provides support [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 940.00 with a daily decline of 9.55%, and the night - session closing price was 980.00 with a decline of 1.30%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 15498 with a daily decline of 12.30%, and the night - session closing price was 17246.00 with an increase of 3.47% [4]. - **Inventory and ETF**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold decreased by 99 kg, and the inventory of Shanghai Silver increased by 2054 kg. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 265 [4]. - **News**: Negotiation deadlocks reignited market panic; Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities; the Turkish central bank sold $8 billion worth of gold during the Iran war [4][8][22]. 3.2 Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 95,350 with a daily decline of 0.25%, and the night - session closing price was 95150 with a decline of 0.21%. The London Copper 3M electronic trading price was 12,120 with a decline of 1.33% [9]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 5,670 tons, and the London Copper inventory decreased by 350 tons. The LME copper premium and other spreads changed to varying degrees [9]. - **News**: Trump postponed the strike on Iran; Zambia aimed to triple copper production by 2031; Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine; China's refined copper production increased, and waste copper imports decreased; Peru's copper production increased [9][11]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 23070 with an increase of 0.59%, and the London Zinc 3M electronic trading closing price was 3081 with an increase of 1.40% [12]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory decreased by 1078 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 825 tons. The LME CASH - 3M premium increased by 4.02 [12]. - **News**: Trump postponed the strike on Iran; Iran stated that friendly - country ships could pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely [13]. 3.4 Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16460 with a decline of 0.21%, and the London Lead 3M electronic trading closing price was 1911.5 with an increase of 0.68% [16]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The LME lead inventory decreased by 50 tons, and the LME lead cancelled warrant increased by 1225 tons [16]. - **News**: Trump postponed the strike on Iran; the Democratic Party won a key election in Florida [17]. 3.5 Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 348,790 with a decline of 0.98%, and the London Tin 3M electronic trading price was 44,150 with a decline of 1.49% [19][20]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 387 tons, and the London Tin inventory decreased by 60 tons. The LME tin (spot/three - month) premium increased by 99 [20]. - **News**: Negotiation deadlocks reignited market panic; Trump postponed the strike on Iran; the Turkish central bank sold $8 billion worth of gold; the Chinese Minister of Commerce met with the US Trade Representative [20][22]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23725, and the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 3255. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 137.10 million tons [23]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2931, and the average domestic alumina price was 2774 [23]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22820 [23]. - **News**: Iran prepared to deal with the US; the Turkish central bank sold $8 billion worth of gold [25]. 3.7 Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The price of Shanghai Platinum and NYMEX Platinum decreased to varying degrees, and the price of Shanghai Palladium and NYMEX Palladium also changed [27]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The platinum ETF holdings decreased by 18, and various spreads changed [27]. - **News**: The European Parliament passed the EU - US trade agreement; multiple international events occurred; Turkey sold a large amount of gold [29][30]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 135,860, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,390 [31]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia planned to revise the nickel - ore benchmark price formula; a Swiss company planned to restart its nickel - mine business in Guatemala; multiple nickel - mine production and operation events occurred in Indonesia and the Philippines [31][32][33][34][35][36][37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: There are contradictions and differences between the macro and the ore end, and the short - term long - short game intensifies [2][4] - Stainless steel: Overseas macro factors exert pressure, while the actual cost provides support [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: Inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to the downward space [2][15] - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the situation of today's meeting [2][17] - Polysilicon: It is in the bottom - finding stage [2][18] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 135,860, down 270 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,390, down 100 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 412,306, a decrease of 48,075 from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 243,640, a decrease of 52,312 from T - 1 [4] - **Industrial Chain**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 136,450, up 1,750 from T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,083, unchanged from T - 1 [4] Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [4] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the sharp rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions on its local facilities [5] - The approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons. PT Weda Bay Nickel's production and sales quota is 12 million tons, a 70% reduction from 2025 [7][9] - Philippine miners said that the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [8] - A landslide occurred in a tailings area of the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [8] - Sherritt International Corporation reduced the operation scale of its joint - venture in Cuba due to limited fuel supply [8] - Four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province, Indonesia, were sanctioned and fined [9] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources estimates that the nickel ore production in 2026 will be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of ferronickel and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [9] - The revision of the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) is expected to be approved in July, and the revised RKAB may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% [10] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources aims to complete the approval of the 2026 RKAB for mineral and coal mining by the end of March [10] - Indonesia is planning to levy an "excess profit tax" on commodities, and the president has approved the export tax rates for coal and nickel [10] Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 157,200, down 1,920 from T - 1; the trading volume was 260,930, an increase of 27,626 from T - 1; the open interest was 246,385, a decrease of 5,572 from T - 1 [13] - **Industrial Chain**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 156,500, up 4,000 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 153,500, up 4,000 from T - 1 [13] Macro and Industry News - On March 25, New宙邦 disclosed that its operating income in 2025 was 9.639 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 22.84%; the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.097 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 16.48%. It has introduced several domestic and foreign leading battery customers [14] - China's first new - type energy - storage artificial intelligence data analysis platform was officially put into use [16] Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,735, down 35 from T - 1; the trading volume was 140,735, a decrease of 77,224 from T - 1; the open interest was 229,643, a decrease of 2,435 from T - 1. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 35,540, down 1,210 from T - 1 [18] - **Price and Profit**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,550, unchanged from T - 1; the silicon factory profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 was - 2,396.5, a decrease of 35 from T - 1 [18] - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 560,000 tons; the polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 332,000 tons [18] Macro and Industry News - On March 25, Hongyuan Green Energy announced that its subsidiary will invest in the reorganization of Wuxi Suntech. The new Wuxi Suntech will have a registered capital of 1 billion yuan, and Hongyuan Green Energy will invest 630 million yuan, holding about 63% of the equity [19] Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The global economic growth outlook is affected by the uncertainty in the Middle East situation, with potential impacts on inflation and economic growth. The market is highly sensitive to geopolitical events, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, which has a significant impact on various futures markets [20]. - Different futures markets have different trends and influencing factors. For example, the stock index futures are affected by the decline of US stocks and global risk - preference changes; the bond futures are influenced by the uncertainty of the Middle East war and the central bank's monetary policy; the agricultural product futures are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies; the black metal futures are affected by overseas sentiment, raw material supply, and downstream demand; the non - ferrous metal futures are affected by geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic factors; the shipping and carbon market futures are affected by geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy factors; the energy - chemical futures are affected by the negotiation between the US and Iran, supply - demand balance, and energy price fluctuations. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The decline of US stocks affects market sentiment. The stock index fell across the board on Thursday, and the futures contracts also declined. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and short - term indexes are expected to continue to fluctuate [20][21][22]. - **Bond Futures**: The risk preference in the market is volatile. The bond futures closed higher on Thursday. The central bank's net injection of short - term liquidity keeps the market funds stable. The future direction of the bond market may be determined by whether the energy price increase will be transmitted to the domestic core inflation [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The market has increased disturbance factors, and the price shows a wide - range shock. The supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and the price may decline in the future [28][29]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to be strong due to the reduction of sugar production expectations in major producing countries. The domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international price slightly, with a trend of being strong [30][32][33]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The oil and fat market maintains a high - level shock. The supply of palm oil in Malaysia is expected to continue to decrease in March, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is still high. The US biodiesel policy is yet to be determined [34][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The wheat auction price has decreased, and the corn futures price shows a weak shock. The deep - processing demand has increased, but the supply pressure still exists [37][40][41]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure has increased, and the price has generally declined. The feed price has a greater impact on the breeding profit, and the overall inventory of hogs is still large [42][43]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts is strong, and the futures price shows a strong shock. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the oil factory still has a profit [45][46]. - **Eggs**: The demand has recovered, and the egg price is mainly stable. The supply of eggs is relatively loose, and it is not recommended to chase the increase [50][51]. - **Apples**: The demand for apples is good, and the price is firm. The inventory of cold - storage apples is low, but the upward momentum of the May contract is limited [52][53]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and shows a shock - strengthening trend. The supply in this year is basically determined, and there is a rumor of production reduction in the new year. The demand in the downstream market is good [55][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Overseas sentiment affects the futures price, and the steel market lacks a trend - type market. The demand for steel is still recovering, but the export is affected by the US - Iran conflict [59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, and the trend is not obvious. The market is mainly driven by funds and emotions, and the geopolitical situation needs to be closely monitored [62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is still disturbed, and the ore price is running at a high level. The market rumors are numerous, and the supply - demand situation is complex. It is recommended that spot enterprises conduct hedging at a high level [64][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: Affected by the large - scale fluctuation of crude oil, the price is running at a high - level shock. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are in a positive feedback, but they are easily affected by energy prices [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market maintains a shock. The US - Iran negotiation is in a stalemate, and the risk of war escalation still exists. The price is affected by factors such as energy prices and central bank gold sales [69][70][71]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The precious metals are in a weak shock. The market is concerned about the inflation caused by energy prices, and the unilateral position risk is high. Platinum can be considered for short - term long positions, and palladium is expected to follow weakly [74][75]. - **Copper**: Attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran negotiation. The geopolitical situation is complex, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. The price direction is not clear [78]. - **Alumina**: Attention should be paid to the mining policy in Guinea and the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The supply of bauxite may be reduced, and the price of alumina is affected by market sentiment [80][81]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict has uncertainty. The aluminum production capacity in the Middle East may be affected by raw material shortages [83]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The geopolitical situation is uncertain. The supply of scrap aluminum is restricted, and the downstream demand is weak [87]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the macro and capital emotions. The basic situation at home and abroad supports the zinc price, but the macro uncertainty still exists [91]. - **Lead**: The price is in a low - level shock. The domestic secondary lead smelting is in a loss, but the consumption may improve in the peak season [92]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is dominated by the macro situation. The supply - demand gap in March has narrowed, and the cost support is strong, but the price is still in a shock [95]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by the cost, it follows the nickel price. The chromium - based raw materials are rising, and the inventory is being reduced, but the supply may be loose in April [98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price reaches the upper limit of the range, and it is recommended to participate in short - positions lightly. The supply - demand situation has no obvious change, and the industry meeting may have an impact on the price [99]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand is weak, and a short - selling idea is recommended. The production in March has increased, and the inventory may accumulate in April [102]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply disturbance supports the price to run at a high level. The supply in April may be affected by the reduction of imports from Zimbabwe, and the price has both support and pressure [103]. - **Tin**: The US - Iran peace negotiation is in doubt, and the tin price is under pressure. The Middle East situation affects the helium export, which may be transmitted to the global semiconductor supply chain [106]. Shipping and Carbon Market - **Container Shipping**: The US postpones the energy strike against Iran for 10 days, and the spot price is expected to be reduced. The near - month and far - month contracts have different trends, and the geopolitical risk needs to be vigilant [108][110][111]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The bad weather in Western Australia causes concerns about ore shipments, and the demand for steel mills to replenish inventory supports the rent of large ships to rise. The market is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and the shipping situation in the Middle East [112][114][115]. - **Carbon Market**: The trading in the Chinese carbon market is dull, and the EU carbon market has the March contract delivery. The carbon price in the EU is expected to be in a shock - strengthening trend, and the Chinese carbon price may be affected by factors such as policy and demand [116][117][120]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The negotiation prospect is still unclear. The supply gap still exists, and the international oil price maintains high volatility [123]. - **Asphalt**: The supply contraction exists, and attention should be paid to the near - end oil price fluctuation risk. The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the social inventory is high [126][127]. - **Fuel Oil**: The difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur prices should pay attention to the low - sulfur production reduction and the start - up rhythm of high - sulfur peak - season demand. The Singapore fuel oil inventory is at a high level, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is tight [127][129]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates around the geopolitical situation. The external market price of LPG has fallen, and the domestic price is affected by the negotiation situation [131]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the upward trend remains unchanged. The supply of LNG in Qatar is interrupted, and the market supply gap is gradually accumulating [133][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The supply has an expected unplanned reduction, and PTA enterprises are forced to reduce production. The PX device is in the traditional maintenance season, and the downstream enterprises are reducing production [137][138]. - **BZ & EB**: The refinery's load reduction affects the pure benzene supply, and the benzene import volume decreases year - on - year. The downstream demand is expected to pick up, and the price is in a shock - strengthening trend [140][141]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The import volume is revised down. The domestic and overseas production is affected, and the 4 - month import volume is expected to be significantly reduced [144]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing margin fluctuates within a range. The sales of short - fiber factories are differentiated, and it short - term follows the trend of polyester raw materials [146][147]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory is continuously being reduced. The production load of bottle - chip factories has increased, and the inventory is being reduced during the procurement peak season [148]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline this cycle. The cost increases, and the supply risk increases. The domestic and foreign production is affected, and the demand is gradually recovering [150][151]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of polyolefins of the two major oil companies accumulates. The market price is in a shock - strengthening trend, but the downstream demand is not strong [153][154]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is weakening. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is slightly decreased, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises is in a loss [156][158]. - **PVC**: It is mainly in a shock. The global supply of PVC is expected to be reduced, and the domestic supply also has a contraction expectation [159]. - **Soda Ash**: It is in a high - level shock. The supply is reduced, the demand growth is tested, and the price is expected to be weakly shocked [161][162]. - **Glass**: It is in a shock - decline. The inventory in the middle - stream is high, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [164][166]. - **Methanol**: It is in a wide - range shock. The production in Iran is reduced, the domestic import is expected to be reduced, and the supply - demand situation is changing [167][169]. - **Urea**: It is mainly in a shock. The domestic production is at a high level, the international supply is tight, and the price is affected by policies [172]. - **Pulp**: The inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still high. The supply exceeds the demand, and the demand support is insufficient [176][178]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the market is under pressure. The supply - demand relationship is in a weak balance, and the price is weak [183]. - **Logs**: The market is generally strong. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [185][186]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The tire production increases marginally. The export of Vietnamese rubber has changed, and the domestic tire production line is increasing [187][190]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The tire production increases marginally. The market situation is similar to that of natural rubber, and the production of the tire production line is increasing [191][194].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the decline in the performance of the Huaxia Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650), which opened down 2.08% at 1.840 yuan on March 27 [1][2] - Major holdings of the ETF, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Northern Rare Earth, also experienced declines, with Zijin Mining down 1.84% and Luoyang Molybdenum down 1.54% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Sub-Industry Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, managed by Huaxia Fund Management Co., with a return of 87.78% since its inception on June 9, 2021, but a recent one-month return of -17.31% [2] Group 2 - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating potential upward momentum for certain stocks [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876), which opened down by 1.71% at 0.979 yuan on March 27 [1][2] - Major holdings of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF experienced declines, including Zijin Mining down 1.84%, Luoyang Molybdenum down 1.54%, Northern Rare Earth down 2.06%, and others [1][2] - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF has a performance benchmark of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index return, managed by Huabao Fund Management Co., with a return of 98.98% since its establishment on March 12, 2021, but a recent one-month return of -17.30% [1][2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the decline in the performance of the non-ferrous ETF Penghua (159880), which opened down 1.80% at 1.905 yuan [1][2] - Major holdings of the non-ferrous ETF Penghua experienced significant declines, including Zijin Mining down 1.84%, Luoyang Molybdenum down 1.54%, and Northern Rare Earth down 2.06% [1][2] - The performance benchmark for the non-ferrous ETF Penghua is the Guozhen Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index return rate, with a return of 93.92% since its establishment on March 8, 2021, and a recent one-month return of -18.09% [1][2] Group 2 - The news mentions the formation of a MACD golden cross signal, indicating potential upward momentum for certain stocks, although specific stocks are not detailed in the provided content [3]

Group 1 - The Silver ETF (159871) opened down 2.06% at 0.952 yuan on March 27 [1][2] - Major holdings in the Silver ETF include Zijin Mining down 1.84%, Luoyang Molybdenum down 1.54%, Northern Rare Earth down 2.06%, and others showing similar declines [1][2] - The Silver ETF has a performance benchmark of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index return, managed by Silver Fund Management Co., with a return of 94.22% since its inception on March 10, 2021, but a recent one-month return of -17.18% [1][2] Group 2 - The article mentions the formation of a MACD golden cross signal, indicating potential upward momentum for certain stocks [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various commodities show different trends, affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. For example, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on the prices of energy - related commodities like LPG and fuel oil, while the supply - demand structure affects the prices of metals and agricultural products [109][120]. - Different commodities are in different market states, including price fluctuations (such as gold and silver), range - bound oscillations (such as copper and tin), and upward or downward trends (such as sugar and pork) [5][19]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the price has declined. The Turkish central bank sold $8 billion worth of gold during the Iran war, putting downward pressure on the price [5][9]. - **Silver**: It has fallen from the oscillation platform, with significant price changes [5]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Both are in a relatively weak state, with trend intensities of - 1, and they are in a range - bound oscillation [27][29]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The market is cautious, and the price is oscillating. The Zambian government aims to triple copper production by 2031, and some copper mines have suspended operations [10][12]. - **Zinc**: There is support at the lower level, with a trend intensity of 1, and the price has a slight upward trend [13][15]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventory reduction supports the price, and the trend intensity is 0 [16][17]. - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0; alumina is running weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [23][25]. - **Nickel**: There are contradictions between the macro and the ore end, and the short - term long - short game has intensified, with a trend intensity of 0; stainless steel is suppressed by overseas macro factors and supported by real - world costs, with a trend intensity of 0 [31][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks still exist, and supply disruptions occur frequently, with a trend intensity of 1 [109][113]. - **Propylene**: Affected by geopolitical factors at the cost end, there is an expected reduction in supply, with a trend intensity of 1 [109][113]. - **Fuel Oil**: It has a narrow - range oscillation during the day session and a slight rebound at night, with a trend intensity of 0; low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak in the short term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to decline, with a trend intensity of 0 [120]. - **Methanol**: It is in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [90][95]. - **Urea**: It is in a range - bound operation, with a trend intensity of 0 [97][100]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: They are in a high - level oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [101][104]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with a trend intensity of 0 [107]. - **PVC**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. High inventory needs time to digest, and the market is affected by geopolitical situations in the long - term [117][118]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Affected by oil price fluctuations, it is in a high - level oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [148][153]. - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force from the soybean system is not significant, and attention is paid to the release of RVO, with a trend intensity of 0 [148][153]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: They are in an adjustment and oscillation state, waiting for new information, with a trend intensity of 0 [155][157]. - **Corn**: It is in an oscillating operation, with a trend intensity of 0 [158][160]. - **Sugar**: It is oscillating upwards, with a trend intensity of 1 [162][164]. - **Cotton**: It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the external market, with a trend intensity of 0 [166][170]. - **Eggs**: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the far - month contracts, with a trend intensity of 0 [171][172]. - **Pork**: The weight reduction is less than expected, and the price center continues to move down, with a trend intensity of - 2 [174][176]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills, with a trend intensity of 0 [178][180]. Others - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the meeting situation today, with a trend intensity of 0 [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in a bottom - finding stage, with a trend intensity of 0 [43][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The negotiation game intensifies, and the ore price fluctuates greatly, with a trend intensity of 0 [46][48]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in an oscillating and repeated state, with a trend intensity of 0 [50][53]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The long - short market game is intense, and they are in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [54][56]. - **Log**: The cost expectation weakens, and the price corrects, with a trend intensity of 0 [57][60]. - **Para - Xylene and PTA**: They are in a short - term oscillating market and are still relatively strong in the medium - term, with a trend intensity of 0; MEG has a tight supply and a relatively strong medium - term trend, with a trend intensity of 0 [61][65]. - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [66][67]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in an intra - day wide - range oscillation, and the price center moves up, with a trend intensity of 1 [70][72]. - **LLDPE**: The start - up rate continues to decline, and the raw material price corrects under negative feedback, with a trend intensity of 1; PP has large fluctuations in C3 raw materials, and the basis is weakly stable, with a trend intensity of 1 [73][76]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [77][79]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in an oscillating operation, with a trend intensity of 0 [81][83]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend intensity of 0 [87][88]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: They are in a short - term oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 0 [137][138]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see, with a trend intensity of 0 [140]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot is under pressure, and the market pays attention to geopolitical disturbances, with a trend intensity of 0 [122][136].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market's short - term outlook for the negotiation between the US and Iran is not optimistic, and risk appetite has significantly declined. A - share trading volume has shrunk, and risky assets are still under pressure. The bond market may weaken in the short term. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [1][3][13][17][19] - The dollar index is expected to rise in the short term. For stock index futures, it is recommended to hold low - position long positions and wait and see. For bond futures, short - term operations should be fast - in and fast - out, closely following the war situation. For various commodities, different investment suggestions are provided according to their respective fundamentals [14][18][20] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US initial jobless claims met market expectations. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities to April 6th, and the market's short - term expectation for the negotiation agreement has decreased, leading to a weakening of risk appetite. The US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [11][13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Trump will visit China in mid - May. A - share trading volume has shrunk below 2 trillion yuan, and the stock index rebound is blocked. The US - Iran situation remains deadlocked, and risky assets are under pressure. It is recommended to hold low - position long positions and wait and see [15][17][18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 224 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. If the war continues, high oil prices and inflation are the core negative factors for the bond market. The bond market may weaken in the short term, and strategies should be fast - in and fast - out [19][20] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 483,900 tons week - on - week. In mid - March, the daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises increased month - on - month. The demand for finished products is average, and the market expectation is unstable. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see [21][22][25] 2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The imported Mongolian coking coal market is stable. The first round of coke price increase has not been implemented. In the short term, the coking coal futures price is supported, but in the long term, the price increase is restricted. It is necessary to track the resumption of iron - making production, terminal demand, and coal mine resumption progress [26][27] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn consumption by deep - processing enterprises increased week - on - week, and imports from January to February increased significantly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has support. It is expected that corn will maintain a high - level shock pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [28][29][31] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The long - term over - capacity problem in the pig market persists. In the short term, the spot price is under pressure. For the near - month contract, it is recommended to sell on rallies; for the far - month contract, it is recommended to wait and see [32] 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The joint mining plan of Codelco and Anglo American has been approved. The macro and fundamental negative factors for copper are weakening. It is expected that the copper price will continue to build a bottom in a shock, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage strategy [33][36] 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium declined. The supply is relatively rigid, and the demand has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, wait and see for palladium, and pay attention to the long - platinum short - palladium opportunity in the medium term [37][38][39] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Boliden's Garpenberg mine reduced production due to an earthquake. The domestic social inventory of lead decreased. The lead price may continue to build a bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the mid - line buying opportunity at low prices [40][41] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory decreased. Boliden's Garpenberg mine reduced production, and the zinc price has long - term technical support. It is recommended to manage positions well when going long, and wait and see for arbitrage [42][43][44] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Yahua Group signed a purchase agreement. The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [45][47][48] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The domestic and LME tin inventories changed. The supply and demand of tin are both weak, and the main contradiction is the continuous fermentation of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [49][50][51] 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory decreased. The urea futures price rebounded, but the upper limit of the 05 contract is restricted. It is recommended to purchase according to rigid demand and reduce speculative operations [52][53] 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - Jiangsu Sierbang's MTO device restarted, which is beneficial to the methanol futures price. It is recommended to take a bullish view and buy on dips [54] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price declined slightly. The supply may decrease, and the cost has increased. The market may continue the situation of supply contraction and cost support [55][56] 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The supply may decrease in April, and the demand is stable. The price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda has increased. The supply - demand situation may improve marginally, but the increase space may be restricted [60][61] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased. The market is worried about short - term supply, and the Asian low - sulfur market may be in short supply. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [62][63][64] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash inventory changed little. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. The industry is in a situation of high supply and high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the energy price inflection point [65] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass decreased slightly. The supply pressure has decreased, but the demand is average, and the mid - stream inventory pressure is large. The glass futures price may have limited rebound [66] 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's foreign - trade container throughput increased in the first two months. The spot price is under pressure, and the near - month contract is returning to the spot logic. The far - month contract is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a shock strategy and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [67]

Market Performance - On March 26, 2026, the Beijiao Exchange 50 index decreased by 1.57%, closing at 1,266.68 points[1] - The overall trading volume on the Beijiao Exchange was 135.16 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 2.58%[1] - The total market capitalization of the Beijiao Exchange was 803.38 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of 488.41 billion CNY[1] Sector Performance - The media sector led gains with an increase of 4.1%, while the defense and military industry saw a decline of 3.7%[1] - Among the 300 listed companies on the Beijiao Exchange, 39 companies rose, 3 remained flat, and 258 companies fell[1] Stock Highlights - The top gainers included Huayang Transmission (+9.65%), Hongxi Technology (+7.56%), and Tianli Composite (+7.12%) while the largest decliners were Caneng Electric (-7.48%), Pano Technology (-7.43%), and Yinen Electric (-7.43%)[1] - The most actively traded stocks were Zuxing New Materials (28.21%), Keli Co. (28.14%), and Xinhengtai (26.92%) based on turnover rate[1] Valuation Insights - The overall valuation of the Beijiao Exchange was approximately 39.22 times earnings, lower than the ChiNext and STAR Market, which had P/E ratios of 42.91 and 71.05 respectively[1] - The highest average P/E ratio among sectors on the Beijiao Exchange was in the oil and petrochemical sector at 115.2 times[1] Risk Factors - Potential risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and market volatility[1]