Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook is optimistic for cyclical sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals, driven by multiple factors including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, monetary policy shifts, and improved domestic macroeconomic expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance, with leading companies' stock prices doubling, but there is a mismatch between current valuations and fundamentals [2][3]. - The core logic for non-ferrous metals includes their role as globally priced commodities, entering a long-term supply-tight price upcycle due to sustained demand and supply constraints [3]. - Factors such as ongoing global manufacturing investment cycles, strategic metal resource demand, and monetary expansion are expected to drive further demand for non-ferrous metals [3]. Group 2: Strategic Asset Allocation - The investment strategy emphasizes a strategic allocation to cyclical assets, focusing on sectors with strong demand-side logic [4]. - The first tier of allocation includes industrial metals, minor metals, and precious metals, with copper and aluminum highlighted for their robust long-term demand and profitability [5]. - The second tier focuses on traditional midstream cyclical leaders like chemicals, steel, coal, and financial sectors, which have low valuations and maintain decent return on equity [6]. - The third tier includes post-cyclical sectors such as general machinery and real estate, which may require time to realize their potential as the macroeconomic cycle progresses [6].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 28 Sep 2025 [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为A股将延续盘整以消化前期涨幅，港股补涨后短期或跟随进入震荡阶段。本周A股上证综指震荡微涨 0.2%，创业板指冲高回落仍录得2%的周涨幅；港股方面，恒生指数和恒生科技全周下跌1.6%。 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 国庆前后交投趋弱，十五五预期利好低位蓝筹配置 Weaker Trading Around National Day; 15th Five-Year Plan Expectations Favor Low-Valued Blue Chips 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com • 情绪边际转弱：阿里云栖大会一度继续提振市场信心，但在股价连续大涨后，市场情绪已见顶回落。 • 汇 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut to 4.50% on September 18, 2025, marking the first reduction since December 2024, primarily following the actions of the Federal Reserve [4][6] - The cut is a response to global economic conditions, particularly the increase in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.3% and a decrease in CPI to 2.9%, indicating economic slowdown [4][6] - The interest rate reduction is expected to lower financing costs for businesses and residents, stimulating economic activity and consumer spending [6][9] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.78%, with technology stocks, particularly Baidu, gaining over 15% [3][6] - The reduction in interest rates is anticipated to attract both overseas and mainland Chinese capital into the Hong Kong stock market, creating a resonance effect [3][10] - Real estate is expected to be one of the most directly benefited sectors, as lower mortgage rates will stimulate housing demand [8][9] Group 3: Long-term Implications - The interest rate cut is seen as a measure to maintain the stability of the Hong Kong dollar and the orderly operation of the monetary market, reinforcing Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [10][12] - The reduction in financing costs is likely to enhance the business environment, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises, and increase consumer disposable income, benefiting sectors like retail and dining [9][10] - The current economic climate presents a favorable opportunity for individuals looking to establish or expand businesses in Hong Kong, as lower borrowing costs can facilitate investment [12][21] Group 4: Identity and Investment Opportunities - The interest rate environment creates a window for individuals seeking to apply for Hong Kong identity, as reduced financing costs lower the economic burden of settling in Hong Kong [14][16] - Various pathways for obtaining Hong Kong identity, such as the High Talent Scheme and the Quality Migrant Admission Scheme, are highlighted as advantageous during this period of lower interest rates [18][19] - The overall market liquidity improvement is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Hong Kong assets, providing diverse investment opportunities for residents [13][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the spot price of rebar decreased slightly, terminal demand remained weak, and the willingness to replenish inventory before the holiday was low. The black - series led the decline in the commodity market on Friday, and the coking industry association issued a clarification statement in the afternoon. The double - coke continued to fall at night, indicating significant uncertainties in the fundamentals. The real estate sales declined marginally this week, with first - tier cities providing support. The momentum of travel was strong approaching the holiday [1]. - In terms of real estate sales, the transaction area of new homes in 20 cities tracked by Wind increased by 7.58% week - on - week and decreased by 10.63% year - on - year. The transaction area in first - tier cities was significantly stronger than the same period last year, while that in second - tier cities turned negative year - on - year. The sales area of second - hand homes in Beijing and Shanghai was much higher than last year [1]. - In investment and production, most commodity prices rose. The rebar price decreased slightly, with weak terminal demand and low pre - holiday inventory replenishment willingness. The glass futures price increased due to stable supply and improved demand in the peak season, along with positive policy sentiment. The cement price index rose as the traditional peak season deepened, and the asphalt price increased slightly supported by the rebound in oil prices [1]. - In industrial production, the operating rates showed differentiation. The PTA operating rate declined, while the operating rates of automobile tires, coking enterprises, and polyester filament remained basically flat. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills increased slightly, and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased significantly [1]. - In consumption, the travel momentum was strong. Subway travel exceeded the seasonal level, and automobile consumption, domestic flights, and movie box - office were in line with the season [1]. - In terms of inflation, the pork price declined, vegetable prices rose, and oil prices increased. The increase in vegetable prices was due to some vegetables entering the end of the harvest season and reduced production after the temperature drop in the north. The rise in crude oil prices was mainly driven by the geopolitical disturbances in Russia and Ukraine [1]. - In exports, the SCFI declined, and the BDI increased. The demand in the transportation market remained unchanged, and the spot - market booking prices continued to fall [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Real Estate Sales: First - Tier Cities Provide Support - New home sales: From September 19th to 25th, the transaction area of new homes in 20 cities tracked by Wind increased by 7.58% week - on - week and decreased by 10.63% year - on - year. First - tier cities' transaction area was significantly stronger than last year, second - tier cities' year - on - year sales turned negative, and third - and fourth - tier cities' sales were weaker than last year and the previous period [1][6]. - Second - hand home sales: The sales area of second - hand homes in Beijing and Shanghai was much higher than last year. Overall, the transaction area of second - hand homes in key cities was basically flat week - on - week, with the year - on - year increase showing a decline. Except for Shenzhen, the transaction areas of other key cities were stronger than the previous period [1][20]. 3.2 Investment: Most Commodity Prices Rose - Rebar: The price decreased slightly. Due to weak terminal demand and low pre - holiday inventory replenishment willingness, merchants focused on reducing inventory. The inventory decreased by 2.75% week - on - week, and the apparent consumption increased by 4.96% [1][5]. - Glass: The futures price increased. The supply output was stable, the demand improved marginally in the peak season, and the policy sentiment of the "Building Materials Industry Stable Growth" was positive. The price increased by 3.71% week - on - week [1][5]. - Cement: The price index rose. As the traditional peak season deepened, enterprises generally raised prices, with a 2.51% increase week - on - week [1][5]. - Asphalt: The price increased slightly. The rebound in oil prices provided price support, with a 0.78% increase week - on - week [1][5]. 3.3 Production: Operating Rates Showed Differentiation - PTA: The operating rate declined, dropping from 77.29% to 76.48% [1][5]. - Automobile tires, coking enterprises, and polyester filament: The operating rates remained basically flat [1]. - Steel mills' blast furnaces: The operating rate increased slightly, rising from 84% to 84.47% [1][5]. - Petroleum asphalt: The operating rate increased significantly, rising from 34.4% to 40.1% [1][5]. 3.4 Consumption: Strong Travel Momentum - Subway travel: It was higher than the seasonal level, although it decreased by 2.54% week - on - week [1][5]. - Automobile consumption, domestic flights, and movie box - office: They were in line with the season. Automobile consumption increased by 7.07% week - on - week, domestic flights decreased by 1.37% week - on - week, and movie box - office increased by 17.00% week - on - week [1][5]. 3.5 Exports: SCFI Declined, BDI Increased - SCFI: It decreased by 6.98% week - on - week, indicating that the demand in the transportation market remained unchanged and the spot - market booking prices continued to fall [1][5]. - BDI: It increased by 2.86% week - on - week [1][5]. - CRB spot index: It decreased slightly by 0.75% week - on - week [1][5]. 3.6 Prices: Pork Price Declined, Vegetable and Oil Prices Rose - Pork: The price decreased slightly, dropping from 19.48 yuan/kg to 19.42 yuan/kg [1][5]. - Vegetables: The price increased, rising by 2.01% week - on - week, due to some vegetables entering the end of the harvest season and reduced production after the temperature drop in the north [1][5]. - Oil: The price increased. The Brent crude oil spot price in the UK rose from $67.15/barrel to $72.09/barrel, mainly driven by geopolitical disturbances in Russia and Ukraine [1][5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a structural bull market characterized by a significant rise in technology stocks, while traditional value stocks have underperformed, leading to a divergence in investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since the "9·24" event last year, the rapid development of artificial intelligence has catalyzed a bull market in technology stocks, with "small-cap" stocks experiencing substantial gains [1]. - As of September 25, 2023, "small-cap" stocks in the communication and electronics sectors have risen by 67.91% and 53.58% respectively, while traditional blue-chip sectors like coal and food & beverage have declined by 6.70% and 5.64% [2]. Group 2: Investor Performance - Notable investors like Lin Yuan and Ren Zesong have struggled to keep pace with the market, with Lin Yuan's products underperforming and even recording losses this year [3][4]. - Lin Yuan's private fund products, such as Lin Yuan Investment No. 21, reported a loss of 2.77% this year despite a cumulative gain of 135.88% since inception [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Lin Yuan, who previously avoided technology stocks, has made a small investment in this sector, citing passive allocation as a source of distress [3]. - The investment landscape has shifted from traditional value investing to a focus on technology-driven growth, reflecting a broader change in market dynamics [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that technology leaders, once they navigate through a complete cycle of "technology-profit-cash flow-dividend/repurchase," will solidify their positions as core assets in the market, akin to past successes like Apple and Nvidia [7].

Market Overview - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are experiencing a synchronized adjustment, with a cautious market risk preference as growth sectors retreat and second-tier themes rotate [1] - A-shares are influenced by the continuous decline of the Nasdaq and the upcoming long holiday, leading to a general adjustment in hard technology sectors, while funds shift towards automotive, wind power, and real estate sectors [1][2] - Hong Kong stocks are weakened by large technology stocks, but essential consumption and energy sectors provide counter-support [1][2] Index Performance - A-share market shows significant differentiation between large and small caps, with blue-chip sectors demonstrating resilience [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3846.33 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.79% to 13339.82 points [2] - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.65% to 26312.90 points, with the Hang Seng Technology Index down 1.04% [2] Industry Hotspots and Driving Logic - A-share market sees a rotation towards policy-sensitive sectors and cyclical stocks, with the petrochemical sector leading gains due to international oil price fluctuations [3] - The real estate sector stabilizes as ongoing property policies improve industry expectations [3] - The automotive and military sectors present thematic opportunities, with optimistic expectations for the new energy vehicle supply chain [3][4] Underperforming Sectors and Driving Logic - A-share technology growth sectors are experiencing a comprehensive pullback, particularly in AI hardware and media [5] - The hardware equipment index fell by 3.97%, with Apple-related and robotics stocks following the technology sector's adjustment [5] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The market is in a transitional phase of "growth retreat and defensive rise," suggesting a focus on policy dividends and low-valuation sector rotation [6] - Recommended areas include sectors with strong policy certainty such as real estate, national defense, and environmental protection [6] - Attention should also be given to energy and resource sectors under cyclical recovery logic, as well as high-dividend blue-chip stocks amid increased market volatility [6] Long-term Focus - Long-term attention should be on the opportunities arising from the correction in technology sectors, particularly in semiconductors and new energy storage, while waiting for signs of valuation digestion and stabilization in fund sentiment [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the price fluctuations of the black and infrastructure upstream industries, and presents the latest situation of the production and service industries through mid - level event overviews, as well as the operating conditions of the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The third fifth meeting of the Copper Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association was held on September 24 in Xiongan New Area, with the low copper concentrate processing fees due to "involution - style" competition being the most prominent issue. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference on September 25, emphasizing stable supply of "vegetable basket" products, winter - spring vegetable production, and regulation of pig production capacity [1]. - **Service Industry**: The Ministry of Education and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the "Guidelines for the Procurement and Acceptance Management of Bulk Food Ingredients in School Canteens" to improve campus food safety [1]. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: The prices of glass (black) and cement (infrastructure) have rebounded [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The polyester industry's operating rate is at a three - year median, power plant coal consumption is at a median level, and the asphalt operating rate is rising [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have slightly declined, and the number of domestic flights is at a median level [3]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking | Industry Name | Index Name | Update Time | Current Value | Year - on - Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | 9/25 | 2288.6 yuan/ton | 0.06% | | | Spot price: Egg | 9/25 | 7.8 yuan/kg | - 3.13% | | | Spot price: Palm oil | 9/25 | 9188.0 yuan/ton | - 1.90% | | | Spot price: Cotton | 9/25 | 15106.7 yuan/ton | - 1.45% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | 9/25 | 19.4 yuan/kg | - 0.56% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price: Copper | 9/25 | 82435.0 yuan/ton | 2.99% | | | Spot price: Zinc | 9/25 | 21864.0 yuan/ton | - 0.65% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 9/25 | 20783.3 yuan/ton | - 0.59% | | | Spot price: Nickel | 9/25 | 124400.0 yuan/ton | 1.18% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 9/25 | 17031.3 yuan/ton | - 0.33% | | | Spot price: Rebar | 9/25 | 3204.5 yuan/ton | 2.02% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price: Iron ore | 9/25 | 807.9 yuan/ton | 0.04% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | 9/25 | 3385.0 yuan/ton | 1.27% | | | Spot price: Glass | 9/25 | 15.1 yuan/square meter | 5.60% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | 9/25 | 14958.3 yuan/ton | 0.73% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 9/25 | 790.2 | - 0.39% | | | Spot price: WTI crude oil | 9/25 | 65.0 dollars/barrel | 2.03% | | Energy | Spot price: Brent crude oil | 9/25 | 68.5 dollars/barrel | 1.48% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | 9/25 | 3808.0 yuan/ton | - 1.19% | | | Coal price: Coal | 9/25 | 790.0 yuan/ton | 1.15% | | Chemical | Spot price: PTA | 9/25 | 4635.0 yuan/ton | - 0.19% | | | Spot price: Polyethylene | 9/25 | 7346.7 yuan/ton | - 0.65% | | | Spot price: Urea | 9/25 | 1647.5 yuan/ton | - 1.49% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | 9/25 | 1262.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | Real Estate | Cement price index: National | 9/25 | 134.8 | 2.53% | | | Building materials composite index | 9/25 | 114.4 points | 0.33% | | | Concrete price index: National index | 9/25 | 91.7 points | - 0.09% | [36]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese active investment fund industry** and its comparison with the **U.S. active investment fund industry**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Alpha Generation in China**: Chinese active fund managers demonstrate stronger alpha generation capabilities over the long term, especially in volatile market conditions, achieving significant excess returns. This year, the median return of many public sector active funds exceeded 30 percentage points [1][5][11]. 2. **Market Opportunities**: The Chinese market offers more opportunities for excess returns compared to the U.S. market, attributed to differences in index composition and the emergence of new industries such as robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, and AI during China's economic transition [1][4][9]. 3. **Benchmark Selection**: Under the new regulatory framework, it is essential to choose a representative broad-based index that aligns with the investment style, and to regularly compare performance against this benchmark to ensure transparency and accuracy [1][6][18]. 4. **Performance of Chinese Active Funds**: Chinese active public funds have performed exceptionally well this year, with stock-type public funds rising over 20% since the peak on October 8 of the previous year. The proportion of equity public funds outperforming the CSI 300 index reached 70%, a historical high [1][13][14]. 5. **Comparison with U.S. Active Funds**: U.S. active funds are increasingly moving towards passive strategies due to the difficulty of beating indices, with only 27% of active funds outperforming the S&P 500. In contrast, over 90% of Chinese products have historically outperformed their passive counterparts [2][4][18]. 6. **Investment Environment**: Active investment thrives in volatile market environments, where selective stock picking and industry allocation can yield significant excess returns. The outlook for Chinese active investment remains positive as skilled fund managers are expected to continue outperforming market benchmarks [5][17]. 7. **Sector Performance**: Key sectors that have shown strong performance this year include electronics, new energy, communications, and pharmaceuticals, indicating a recovery in the active investment landscape [15][14]. 8. **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: Different investment styles should adopt specific strategies: - **Balanced**: Prefer broad-based indices like CSI 300 or A500. - **Growth**: Opt for growth-oriented indices such as CSI 300 Growth. - **Value and Dividend**: Choose broad-based indices rather than specialized value indices. - **Industry-Specific**: Match benchmarks to specific sectors of interest [29]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Impact of Economic Cycles**: The past few years saw a "barbell" investment strategy due to macroeconomic downturns, but the current environment is different, with many industries entering a harvest phase, leading to clearer investment signals [16]. 2. **Benchmark Performance**: The performance of benchmarks like the CSI 300 has been relatively weak compared to the S&P 500, but Chinese fund managers have shown a greater ability to generate alpha over the long term [8][20]. 3. **Investor Behavior**: The shift towards passive investment in the U.S. is influenced by historical financial crises that made investors wary of high volatility risks, leading to a preference for more stable investment strategies [2][10].

Core Viewpoint - Recent volatility in the global bond market has significantly impacted corporate financing costs and profitability outlooks in the US and Hong Kong stock markets, leading to a heightened focus on how companies balance growth with financial stability [1][3][5] Group 1: Impact on US Stock Market - The high interest rate environment poses particular challenges for growth-oriented and highly leveraged companies, as rising financing costs compress profit margins, especially for tech and startup firms reliant on capital market funding [3] - Companies with strong cash flow and low debt ratios, particularly industry leaders, demonstrate greater resilience against interest rate fluctuations, highlighting a divergence in investor focus on financial stability and sustainable long-term profitability [3] Group 2: Impact on Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market faces a dual situation: while overall valuation levels are low and some companies remain attractive for financing, the market's sensitivity to international capital and US dollar interest rates amplifies pressures on companies through financing channels [3] - High-leverage real estate and certain traditional industries are more adversely affected by bond market volatility, whereas new economy and consumer sectors with policy support and cash flow advantages may strengthen their competitive positions amid these challenges [3] Group 3: Long-term Trends and Strategies - As global bond market volatility and interest rate uncertainty increase, corporate profitability will increasingly depend on internal cash flow and continuous innovation [3] - Key strategies for companies to mitigate bond market risks and stabilize profits include optimizing capital structures, enhancing operational efficiency, and leveraging supportive policy environments [3][5] - Companies with robust financials and core competitive advantages are more likely to navigate economic cycles successfully and achieve valuation premiums in the long run [5]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 33.97 points, a decrease of 0.13%, closing at 26,484.68 points with a total turnover of 314.89 billion HKD [1] - The National Enterprises Index increased by 1.23 points, closing at 9,444.22 points, a rise of 0.01% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 56.04 points, closing at 6,379.19 points, an increase of 0.89% [1] Blue-Chip Stocks - Tencent Holdings rose by 0.23%, closing at 650 HKD [1] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing fell by 0.59%, closing at 435.6 HKD [1] - China Mobile decreased by 0.7%, closing at 85.1 HKD [1] - HSBC Holdings dropped by 0.37%, closing at 107.1 HKD [1] Local Hong Kong Stocks - Cheung Kong Holdings fell by 1.25%, closing at 36.22 HKD [1] - Sun Hung Kai Properties decreased by 1.57%, closing at 91.05 HKD [1] - Henderson Land Development dropped by 1.46%, closing at 27.04 HKD [1] Chinese Financial Stocks - Bank of China fell by 2.34%, closing at 4.17 HKD [1] - China Construction Bank decreased by 2.28%, closing at 7.3 HKD [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China dropped by 2.41%, closing at 5.67 HKD [1] - Ping An Insurance fell by 0.29%, closing at 52.25 HKD [1] - China Life Insurance decreased by 1.39%, closing at 21.26 HKD [1] Oil and Petrochemical Stocks - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation fell by 0.49%, closing at 4.05 HKD [1] - China National Petroleum Corporation rose by 0.14%, closing at 7.08 HKD [1] - CNOOC Limited decreased by 0.37%, closing at 19 HKD [1]