Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn: After the Lantern Festival, market trade activities are gradually returning to normal. In the short term, the supply in the front - end trade link remains tight, and the concentrated release of restocking demand in the consumer end drives up the price. The current price fluctuation is dominated by short - term supply - demand mismatch. In the long term, with a supply gap in grain sources this year, focus on future import and domestic auction policies [2] - Starch: This week, the increase in raw material costs has led to an increase in starch quotes. In the short term, after the festival, enterprise production is resuming, and starch output is increasing, while downstream seasonal restocking is also driving inventory reduction. In the long term, the key factor for price trends is the change in downstream consumption rhythm [2] - Sugar: Internationally, the fundamentals are slightly strengthening, with India lowering its production estimate for the 25/26 sugar - making season and the ISO reducing the expected global surplus. Crude oil price increases may boost the price of raw sugar. Domestically, after the festival, the market is discussing import policies, and the futures are oscillating strongly. There is pressure on the futures from hedging due to large spot inventory [5] - Cotton: The relatively low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good downstream profits, and favorable domestic consumption - promotion policies, as well as good export performance, cotton demand is expected to continue to improve. Also, the planting area in Xinjiang will decrease in the new season, so cotton is suitable for long - term investment [6] - Eggs: The widening gap between the prices of culled chickens and white - feather chickens indicates a slowdown in the culling rhythm, which is likely due to farmers' active decision to delay culling, postponing the supply pressure. Feed costs have risen, compressing the profit margin of egg - laying chicken farming. Considering the basis structure of contracts 05 and 06, a near - far month reverse spread strategy is recommended [9] - Apples: This week, the sales situation in apple - producing areas varies, with a stronger market in the west and a weaker one in the east. In the western regions, merchants are actively seeking high - quality apples, while in the eastern regions, the overall sales are average, and most transactions are for low - priced apples. In the sales areas, after the festival, the overall sales are stable, but the arrival volume is low and the sales speed has slowed down [14] - Pigs: The weekend spot market is weakly adjusting within a narrow range. The supply from large - scale farms is still abundant, and small - scale farms are resistant to low prices. Consumption is weak. With limited capacity reduction and pressure from off - season inventory, the medium - term price is under pressure, while there is support for a long - term turnaround. After the price decline, focus on the changes in the slaughter weight of breeding enterprises, the expectation of second - fattening, and the performance of frozen product storage. The futures are at a premium, and the price at a low level is easily affected by sentiment [14] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Corn price data is provided for different regions (Changchun, Jinzhou, Weifang, Shekou) from March 6 - 12, 2026, along with changes in basis and trade profits. Starch price data is also provided for Heilongjiang and Weifang, with changes in basis and processing profits [1] Sugar - Sugar spot price, basis, import profit, and warehouse receipt data are provided for different regions (Liuzhou, Nanning, Kunming) from March 6 - 12, 2026, along with changes in these indicators [4] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Cotton price data (3128, imported M - grade US cotton, CotlookA(FE)), import profit, warehouse receipt + forecast data, and cotton yarn price data (Vietnamese yarn, 32S spinning profit) are provided from March 6 - 12, 2026, along with changes in relevant indicators [6] Eggs - Egg price data for different producing areas (Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, Hubei), basis, and prices of substitute products (white - feather chicken, yellow - feather chicken, pigs) are provided from March 6 - 12, 2026, along with changes in these indicators [8][9] Apples - Apple spot price data (Shandong 80 first - and second - grade, Shaanxi 70 common), inventory data (national, Shandong, Shaanxi), and basis data for different months (January, May, October) are provided from March 6 - 12, 2026, along with changes in relevant indicators [13][14] Pigs - Pig price data for different producing areas (Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, Jiangsu Nantong) and basis data are provided from March 6 - 12, 2026, along with changes in these indicators [14]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report focuses on the impact of the Iran - US situation on various financial and commodity markets. The tense situation in the Middle East, especially the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has led to significant fluctuations in multiple markets. It has affected the prices of precious metals, foreign exchange, stocks, bonds, and various commodities, and different markets show different trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and geopolitical factors [2][3][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Iran's new supreme leader calls for continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a nearly 2% drop in gold prices. The two - year US Treasury yield has been rising, and funds are flowing to more certain crude oil and chemical products, putting pressure on precious metals. Short - term liquidity tightening expectations increase, and precious metals are under pressure [3][12]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the risk of decline [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US Treasury Secretary says the US Navy will escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, and is not worried about the fiscal cost of the Iran war. Trump's positive attitude towards the Iran war reduces the short - term possibility of TACO, weakens market risk appetite, and causes the US dollar to rise [14][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will continue to strengthen [16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Iran's new leader states that it will not give up revenge and will continue to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US energy minister says the navy is not ready for escort. The short - term situation in the Middle East is still uncertain, and the high oil price has led to inflation concerns and a decrease in the expectation of interest rate cuts this year, putting pressure on the US stock market [17][18]. - Investment advice: The US stock market will continue to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to take a risk - averse and wait - and - see approach [19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Tax data shows that the sales of high - tech industries in the first two months have increased well. The US has launched a "301" clause investigation against 16 countries and regions. The tense situation between the US and Iran has led to high energy prices, affecting the stock market. Energy and coal - chemical stocks are strong, while technology stocks are weak [20][21]. - Investment advice: For the stock index, it is recommended to go long on dips for the unilateral strategy and go long on IM and short on IF for the hedging arbitrage strategy [22]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 24.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 1.5 billion yuan. The reduction of inter - bank deposit interest rates is a short - term disturbance. Inflation is likely to be the main factor in the bond market. As time goes by, the probability of an increase in the oil price center is rising. After the market digests the news of the reduction of inter - bank deposit interest rates, the cost - performance of short - term short - selling is slightly higher than that of long - buying [23]. - Investment advice: After the market digests the positive news, the cost - performance of short - term short - selling is slightly higher [24]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On March 12, the price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable. The market trading was cold, and the downstream purchasing intention was poor. As the conflict continues, the probability of the domestic port spot price rising after 1 - 2 months is increasing [25]. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to overseas energy and oil and gas changes [25]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, several iron ore ships originally bound for the Middle East have changed their routes to China. The BHP long - term contract negotiation has affected the market, and the iron ore price has been impacted by factors such as rising crude oil costs and negotiation disturbances in the past week, but the market trading sentiment is not high [26][27]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [27]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to February, the production and sales of commercial vehicles increased. As of March 12, the inventory of five major varieties increased slightly, with the inventory of building materials increasing and the inventory of coils starting to decrease slightly. The cost is supported by energy prices, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the upward space of steel prices [28][29]. - Investment advice: Steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the fundamentals still limit the upward space [30]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - La Nina is about to end, and El Nino may come in the middle of the year. The increase in crude oil prices, CBOT soybean futures prices, and shipping costs has increased the cost of imported soybeans in China. The market is worried about the shortage of imported soybeans from March to April, and the near - month futures price of soybean meal has reached a new high [5][31][33]. - Investment advice: Soybean meal may remain strong in the short term. Pay attention to the Middle East situation, US biofuel policy, Sino - US relations, China's purchase of US soybeans, domestic reserves, customs policies, and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans from March to April [33]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of March 12, the average inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly. The supply of corn is expected to increase as the weather warms up, and the port inventory in the south is accumulating. The downstream demand has support, but there are still risks such as concentrated grain sales in the Northeast and potential disturbances from wheat auctions [34]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the market is affected by multiple factors. In the medium and long term, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound, but the upward range is limited. Pay attention to weather, corn reserve purchase policies, and wheat auction dynamics [35]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The lithium production guidance of Australian Liontown in the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged. The inventory of lithium carbonate shows different trends in different sectors. The supply is affected by multiple factors, and the demand in March has increased as expected. In the short term, the demand is supported, but there are uncertainties in the long term [36][37][38]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the spot is relatively loose, but the direct demand is still supported. In the long term, there is a high - level logic of new energy replacing old energy. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips after the price correction [39]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium have declined slightly, mainly following the fluctuations of precious metals. The geopolitical situation is still tense, and the supply and demand fundamentals of platinum and palladium have changed. In the short term, they may fluctuate, and platinum may perform better than palladium [40][41][42]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short term and manage positions well; for the arbitrage strategy, use the reverse - spread idea for the month - spread, wait and see for the internal - external spread, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium in the medium term [42]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead shows a discount, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The import of refined lead has increased, and the consumption of lead is weak. The price of lead may continue to be weak, but there is support at the cost of recycled lead [43][44]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium term; for the arbitrage strategy, wait and see [45]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc shows a discount, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots has increased. The geopolitical situation affects the zinc market, and the domestic supply and demand are weak. The zinc price has priced in the previous disturbances, and the risk of recession trading is increasing [46][48]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short term and manage positions well; for the arbitrage strategy, wait and see for the month - spread and maintain the internal - external positive - spread idea in the medium term [49]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Harmony Gold has achieved copper production, and the environmental assessment of Peru's Trapiche copper project has been approved. The new situation in the Middle East has reignited concerns about rising energy prices, and the short - term copper price will be affected by negative sentiment. The domestic inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the spot is expected to maintain a premium [50][51][53]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short term; for the arbitrage strategy, pay attention to the internal - external positive - spread operation [53]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin shows a discount, and the domestic warehouse receipts of tin futures have increased. The supply of tin ore has eased in the short term, but there are uncertainties in the long term. The demand is currently weak [54][55][56]. - Investment advice: Affected by the situation in the Middle East, it will mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [57]. 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - The fuel oil inventory in Singapore has increased. The price difference between low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil has reversed, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is stronger. As long as the escort operation in the Strait of Hormuz does not make a breakthrough, the price difference is expected to continue to widen [58][59][60]. - Investment advice: There is still an upward risk in the short - term price of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil [61]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (PX) - On March 12, the PX price increase expanded. The supply of PX is affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the downstream polyester factories' willingness to reduce production has increased. Due to the shortage of raw materials and the expectation of continuous inventory reduction, PX is expected to remain strong in the short term [62][63]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The weekly output of styrene has decreased. The trading logic of styrene is related to the recovery of the Strait of Hormuz. If the flow rate cannot recover to more than 25% of the normal level by the end of March or early April, there is a risk of a short squeeze in April. The long - term impact may lead to an increase in the price center of mid - stream chemicals [64][65][66]. - Investment advice: The high volatility of the absolute price of styrene is expected to continue. In a high - volatility state, it is recommended to use light positions. Be vigilant against the potential short - squeeze risk [66]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers has decreased. The glass market is affected by the rise in crude oil prices, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The follow - up inventory reduction is difficult [67]. - Investment advice: The glass futures may fluctuate greatly in the short term due to the impact of the energy market and its own low price [67]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of March 12, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has decreased slightly. The soda ash market is affected by energy prices, but the supply is still in a state of over - capacity. There is short - term support, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the energy price inflection point [68][69]. 2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - COSCO Shipping has stopped all services at a port in Panama. The spot market has both positive and negative factors. The cost of long - term contracts is rising, but the short - term cargo - booking pressure is still large. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the market is expected to fluctuate widely [70][71][72]. - Investment advice: The market is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Multiple agricultural products are maintaining a relatively strong performance. The price trends of various agricultural products are influenced by multiple factors, including geopolitical issues in the Middle East, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [1]. - The short - term uncertainty in the Middle East situation is high, and the high - level operation of crude oil has led to a risk of increased costs for vegetable oils. There is an expected increase in biodiesel demand, and it is recommended to focus on the phased low - level buying strategy [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Crude oil and the external market are strong, boosting the trend of oils and fats. The price trends are highly correlated with the evolution of the Middle East situation, and there is uncertainty in short - term price fluctuations due to the repeated war situation. The fundamentals have both positive and negative factors, and short - term capital is relatively optimistic [1][5]. - **Logic**: Geopolitically, the Middle East situation affects market expectations and oil supply. For soybean oil, the US biodiesel policy is expected to be clarified, and there are concerns about South American soybean shipments to China. For palm oil, Indonesia is accelerating B50 biodiesel tests, and Malaysia's early - March export data is positive, but there is a risk of price decline if production continues to increase and the Middle East conflict eases. For rapeseed oil, it is expected that rapeseed will be concentrated for arrival and crushing from March to May, and domestic inventories will gradually accumulate [1][5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend. It is recommended to focus on phased low - level buying strategies [1][5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The market anticipates the auction of imported soybeans, causing funds to flow out and the prices of double - meal to open high and close low [1][5]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the March supply - demand report was uneventful, and the focus is on the Middle East conflict, which potentially benefits biodiesel demand and supports the high - level operation of US soybean futures. Domestically, the spot price has slightly increased due to concerns about short - term supply shortages, but high prices suppress demand. The market anticipates the auction of imported soybeans, leading to a high - opening and low - closing of the soybean meal market [5][6]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation [6]. 3.3 Corn - **View**: Corn futures are consolidating at a high level [1][7]. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight increase. The upstream supply pressure is limited, and the downstream has a certain demand for replenishing stocks. The speed of upstream supply is slower than the increase in downstream demand, resulting in a short - term tight supply situation [7][8]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend. In March, it is expected that the price increase will narrow, and attention should be paid to the capital movement in the futures market. In the medium - term, the overall trend is positive [8]. 3.4 Pigs - **View**: The supply of pigs is abundant, and the pig price is weak [1][8]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the planned daily slaughter volume in March has increased. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is still high. In the long - term, the process of reducing production capacity is not smooth. The post - holiday consumption is in the off - season, and the demand for pigs has decreased, while the slaughter pressure and inventory have increased [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The pig price is expected to fluctuate with a downward trend. In the first half of the year, the industry should consider short - selling hedging opportunities. It is expected that the pig cycle will gradually bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Natural rubber prices rose and then fell, remaining restricted below 17,500 yuan [1][10]. - **Logic**: The short - term trading logic is related to the Middle East geopolitical situation, which has a negative impact on downstream tire orders. The market sentiment is weak, and there is a need for price adjustment. However, due to the expected low - production period and stable downstream demand, the price is likely to rise rather than fall [10][11]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the price will maintain a fluctuating trend [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The expectation of limited cracking production still dominates the market [13]. - **Logic**: Affected by the strong performance of the chemical industry, BR prices have risen. The short - term trading logic has shifted to the geopolitical situation. As long as crude oil remains strong, the price of BR is likely to rise even though its fundamentals are weak [13]. - **Outlook**: The price will follow the sentiment of the sector. If crude oil prices continue to rise, the price will remain strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the rapid change in geopolitical sentiment [13]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Both domestic and foreign cotton prices are strengthening [14]. - **Logic**: Zhengzhou cotton has strengthened this week. The domestic cotton market is expected to be in a tight - balance state in the 25/26 season, and the commercial inventory is decreasing. There is a possibility of a decrease in the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in 2026. The overseas market is expected to have a tighter supply - demand relationship in the next season [14]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend and are recommended for long - term allocation [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and short - term oil price fluctuations continue to drive sugar prices to fluctuate [15]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to long - term, domestic and foreign sugar prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. In the short - term, the supply surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and sugar prices do not have the conditions for a continuous and substantial unilateral increase. However, oil price fluctuations may cause short - term price fluctuations [15][16]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate. The price range of the domestic market can be moderately widened to 5,100 - 5,500 yuan/ton [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Pulp prices are operating at a low level, and the futures performance is weak [17]. - **Logic**: The fundamentals show a pattern of weak current demand and strong seasonal expectations. The demand in the industry chain is not strong, but there is a seasonal improvement in demand in the future. The supply of broad - leaf pulp has a positive impact, while the high overseas inventory of coniferous pulp and stable import prices have a negative impact [17]. - **Outlook**: Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend, maintaining a wide - range fluctuating pattern [17]. 3.10 Double - Gum Paper - **View**: Double - gum paper prices are fluctuating within a range [18]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, there is no clear upward or downward driving force. From March to April, the market is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand. In May, the price may decline due to publisher bargaining and weak social orders [18]. - **Outlook**: Double - gum paper prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4,000 - 4,400 yuan/ton [18]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: The post - holiday demand improvement is limited, and the transmission of spot price increases is average [19][20]. - **Logic**: The geopolitical situation has increased the cost of sea freight and affected the CFR quotes. The domestic spot price has increased, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. After a large number of logs arrive at ports in March and April, the domestic spot price may be under pressure [20]. - **Outlook**: Log prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The increase in overseas quotes has supported the domestic price, but the geopolitical situation is volatile [20]. 3.12 Commodity Index - On March 12, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities showed an increase. The special index, including the commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index, also had positive changes. The agricultural product index had a daily increase of 0.77%, a 5 - day increase of 2.50%, a 1 - month increase of 5.18%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.20% [183][184].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Village Farms reported a net income from continuing operations of $21 million or $0.19 per share, a $49 million improvement compared to the prior year [5] - Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations reached $50 million, an increase of $48 million, while cash flow from continuing operations improved to $58 million, up $44 million compared to 2024 [5][26] - The company achieved a year-over-year growth in net sales of 9%, totaling just shy of $50 million for Q4 [13][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Canadian cannabis sales grew by 10% year-over-year, with international export sales increasing nearly 400% [15][27] - Retail branded sales in Canada were flat compared to Q4 last year, but gross margins improved year-over-year, reaching 43% [15][28] - The Netherlands operations contributed $3.3 million in sales for Q4, with adjusted EBITDA of $700,000 [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company maintained a top five overall market share position in Canada and held the number one position in dried flower as of the end of last month [15] - International export sales increased more than six-fold, benefiting from the company's leadership position as one of the largest EU GMP-certified cannabis operators [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Village Farms is focused on improving margin performance, profitability, and cash generation to enable additional growth investments [5] - The company is investing in capacity expansion projects in Canada and the Netherlands, with expectations of significant increases in production and revenue [20][23] - The transition to privatize the legacy produce business reflects confidence in the cannabis business's ability to stand on its own [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand fundamentals domestically and internationally, expecting to drive profitable growth in 2026 and beyond [19] - The company anticipates returning to sequential growth in international exports in Q1 and plans to ship to multiple new jurisdictions [19] - Management acknowledged temporary supply constraints but emphasized the underlying strength of the business [19] Other Important Information - The company ended the year with approximately $86 million in cash and completed a $3 million share repurchase during Q4 [24][34] - The ongoing share repurchase program reflects a balanced approach to capital allocation aimed at driving returns to shareholders [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Share repurchases and capital allocation - Management indicated that share repurchases reflect confidence in cash generation and do not impact operational opportunities [40] Question: Growth in the German market - Management noted that regulatory uncertainties had caused a decline in imports but expected growth to return in Q1, with increasing demand anticipated [42][43] Question: Capacity constraints and market share aspirations - Management clarified that Canada remains the primary market, balancing international demand with commitments in Canada [49] - The company regained its number one flower share position in January and expects continued growth in 2026 [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US February CPI annual rate was 2.4%, and the core CPI annual rate was 2.5%, in line with market expectations. Due to concerns about the escalation of the Middle - East conflict, energy prices rose again, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite cooled. Domestically, China's economic sentiment in February showed a slight slowdown, but exports exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover, with the economy and inflation remaining relatively stable. The government work report's 2026 development targets and policy intensity are lower than in 2025. The market's trading logic currently focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short - term, with the decline in global inflation expectations, market sentiment has improved, and the stock index has rebounded. [2] - For assets: The stock index may experience increased short - term volatility, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Treasury bonds will be in short - term oscillation, and cautious observation is advised. In the commodity sector, black metals will be in short - term oscillation, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; non - ferrous metals will be in short - term oscillation, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; energy and chemical products will be in short - term oscillation with an upward bias, and cautious long positions are recommended; precious metals will be in short - term oscillation, and cautious long positions are recommended. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as chemicals, batteries, and coal, the domestic stock market has rebounded in the short - term. Fundamentally, China's economic sentiment in February showed a slight slowdown, but exports exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The government work report's 2026 development targets and policy intensity are lower than in 2025. The market's trading logic focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short - term, with the decline in global inflation expectations, market sentiment has improved, and the stock index has rebounded. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in the Middle - East geopolitical situation, domestic two - sessions policies, and market sentiment. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] - **Precious Metals**: On Wednesday night, the precious metals market declined overall. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1151.48 yuan/gram, a 0.37% decline; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 21997 yuan/kilogram, a 2.8% decline. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and market expectations of rising interest rates, the price of gold oscillated downward. Spot gold fell continuously during the day and reached an intraday low of 5149.01 US dollars during the US trading session, finally closing down 0.32% at 5175.91 US dollars per ounce; spot silver followed gold down, finally closing down 2.98% at 85.69 US dollars per ounce. Precious metals will oscillate in the short - term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] 3.2 Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel spot market declined slightly, and the futures price continued to oscillate, with low trading volume. The steel futures did not follow the decline in crude oil but showed some resilience. Ansteel and Bengang announced price policies for April, with plate prices increased by 200 yuan/ton. The actual fundamentals of steel have not improved significantly, and steel and billet inventories remain at high levels. Although the apparent consumption of the five major steel products rebounded last week, the inventory has exceeded the 2025 high. In terms of supply, the output of the five major steel products increased slightly, and the hot metal output decreased significantly, mainly due to temporary production restrictions during the two - sessions. Future supply will remain at a high level. Recently, cost and macro - logic dominate the steel market, and an interval oscillation approach is recommended. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. Iron ore prices did not follow the decline in crude oil prices. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of blast furnaces decreased by 56,000 tons month - on - month, mainly due to production restrictions in the north during the two - sessions. Given that steel mills still have certain profits and strong production enthusiasm, future demand depends on the resumption of production process. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 4.429 million tons month - on - month this week, and the short - term supply of iron ore is still in the off - season. An interval oscillation approach is recommended for iron ore. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices continued a slight rebound. The spot price of manganese ore remained stable. The semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port was quoted at 40 yuan/ton - degree and above, the South African high - iron index was quoted at 33 - 35 yuan/ton - degree, Gabon was quoted at 45 yuan/ton - degree, South32 Australian lump was quoted at 44 yuan/ton - degree, and cml Australian lump was quoted at 45 - 46 yuan/ton - degree. In terms of supply, the capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises in the country was 35.7%, an increase of 0.08% from last week; the daily output was 27,980 tons/day, a decrease of 225 tons. Currently, the start - up situation in the north is relatively stable, and factories are gradually hedging, with a good profit margin. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 6100 yuan/ton. Downstream steel mills have started to implement procurement tender plans after the Spring Festival, and the resumption of the trader market is also progressing steadily. On March 5, a steel mill in Jiangsu tendered for silicon iron at 5930 yuan/ton, with a quantity of 1000 tons, delivered to the factory with acceptance. Other steel mills are waiting for HBIS's tender. An interval oscillation approach is recommended for the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese, and attention should be paid to the risk of a sharp fall after a rise. [6] 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: On Wednesday, domestic and foreign inventories continued to accumulate. The LME copper inventory reached 312,000 tons, and the visible inventory of the three major exchanges exceeded 1.2 million tons, hitting a record high. Recently, LME copper and Shanghai copper have oscillated at high levels without a clear direction, and the future trend is uncertain. Technically, the current situation is similar to the months - long oscillation of gold last year. Fundamentally, although it is weak, it is not the main factor of concern for funds, and the macro - situation is the main influencing factor. Future attention should be paid to changes in the US interest - rate cut expectations. Fundamentally, due to the high price of sulfuric acid and the relatively high prices of gold and silver, the overall income of smelters is still guaranteed, so the refined copper output is at the highest level in the same period in history, with a year - on - year increase close to double - digits. The refined copper output in March is expected to reach 1.2 million tons, a record high. [7] - **Aluminum**: Currently, the news is fluctuating, and the market is volatile. Technically, the form has not deteriorated. With the short - term continuation of the Middle - East situation, the aluminum price will still be supported. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the support at 24,500 yuan. For the medium - term trend, it is relatively cautious, mainly due to the restart of European aluminum smelters and the high domestic aluminum output. [7] - **Zinc**: In 2026, the supply of zinc concentrate will be further released, with an expected increase of about 300,000 - 400,000 tons. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and the by - product income makes up for the losses, so the domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level. Overseas smelters reduced production in 2025 but will resume production in 2026, with output increasing. The demand side is not optimistic. Real estate, infrastructure, transportation, and emerging fields such as photovoltaics are difficult to significantly boost the demand for zinc, and it may even decline. The domestic zinc ingot inventory has increased seasonally and is currently at a high level; the LME zinc inventory remains at around 100,000 tons, and the overall inventory pressure is not large but has increased significantly compared with the previous period. [8] - **Lead**: In the short - to - medium term, the lead output is at a high level. The demand side is affected by the over - consumption of the trade - in policy, and the peak season has passed, gradually entering the off - season. Since 2026, the social inventory of primary lead has continued to increase, with the fastest inventory accumulation rate in recent years. The inventory reached 73,700 tons, decreased briefly, and then increased again. In terms of absolute inventory level, it still exceeds the same period in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Since 2025, the LME lead inventory has remained at a high level. [8][9] - **Nickel**: The intensification of the Middle - East conflict has tightened the sulfur supply, and the cost side supports the price of MHP. Indonesia's RKAB quota in 2026 has dropped significantly to 260 million wet tons, and there is still room for improvement in the future, but the increase is expected to be limited, and a year - on - year decline compared with 2025 is basically a foregone conclusion. Since the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources allows mining enterprises to use one - quarter of the "old quota" in the first quarter, mining enterprises will maintain normal production in the first quarter without a supply gap. The nickel price has strong support at the bottom, but the upward momentum and space are restricted by its own poor fundamentals. As of March 9, the LME nickel inventory reached 287,418 tons, much higher than the same period in recent years. Since September 2025, the inventory has accumulated rapidly, when it was only 210,000 tons. The domestic inventory is similar. Since September 2025, especially since late September, the inventory accumulation has accelerated, reaching the highest level in recent years. [9] - **Tin**: On Wednesday, the LME inventory increased by 590 tons to 8605 tons, the highest level in two years. On the supply side, the smelting start - up rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased seasonally, with an increase of 6.61% to 57.99%. With the progress of the pumping process in the tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, full resumption of production will be achieved, and the tin ore output and exports to China will further increase. On the demand side, the industry is highly differentiated. The production and demand of integrated circuits are still growing rapidly, but the traditional consumer electronics industry is in the off - season. China's photovoltaic installation scale in 2026 will decline compared with 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles have slowed down significantly, and the household appliance production plan in March has continued the decline in February, confirming the over - consumption effect of the previous trade - in policy. As the price has dropped significantly, market transactions have improved, and downstream enterprises have made concentrated purchases at low prices. The social inventory of tin ingots has decreased by 206 tons to 13,250 tons. In summary, the actual fundamentals have not changed much, and the price decline is due to the ebb of sentiment. In the future, it will still be a game between long - term narratives and weak real - world fundamentals, and the price will continue to be weak in the short - term. [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2605 fell 5.14%, with the latest settlement price of 159,840 yuan/ton. The weighted contract reduced its position by 3290 lots, and the total position was 625,900 lots. SMM quoted the battery - grade lithium carbonate at 159,000 yuan/ton (a 500 - yuan increase month - on - month), and the basis between futures and spot was - 980 yuan/ton. For lithium ore, the latest CIF price of Australian spodumene was 2240 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month). The production profit of purchasing lithium mica was 21 yuan/ton, and the production profit of purchasing spodumene was - 855 yuan/ton. The social inventory of lithium carbonate is continuously decreasing, and the strong reality persists. It is expected that lithium carbonate will oscillate at a high level. Do not chase the rise, and patiently wait for opportunities to enter long positions after the price drops. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon 2605 rose 0.17%, with the latest settlement price of 8610 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's position was 355,000 lots, an increase of 10,946 lots. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 was 9200 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the futures price was at a discount of 580 yuan/ton. In a situation of weak supply and demand, over - capacity, and high - level inventory accumulation, industrial silicon is priced close to the cost. The cost side is driven by coking coal. Attention should be paid to the cost support at the bottom, and interval operations are recommended. [12] - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract of polysilicon 2605 fell 0.47%, with the latest settlement price of 42,735 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's position was 55,000 lots, a reduction of 399 lots. The latest N - type re -投料 price from Steel Union was 49,500 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), the N - type silicon wafer price was 1.05 yuan/piece (unchanged month - on - month), the single - crystal Topcon battery piece (M10) price was 0.415 yuan/watt (unchanged month - on - month), and the Topcon component (distributed): 210mm price was 0.77 yuan/watt (unchanged month - on - month). The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 10,690 lots (an increase of 120 lots month - on - month). The polysilicon inventory continues to accumulate at a high level, the number of warehouse receipts is increasing rapidly, and the downstream silicon wafer price is dropping rapidly. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly, and short - position holders should be cautious. [13][14] 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has generally declined, and the basis of the port methanol market has remained stable. In mid - March, it was 2640 yuan/ton, with a basis of 05 + 40 yuan/ton; in late March, it was 2640 - 2700 yuan/ton, with a basis of around 05 + 35/+50; in late April, it was 2670 yuan/ton, with a basis of around 05 + 50. The conflict between the US and Iran has eased temporarily, oil prices have fallen, and energy and chemical products have collectively risen and then fallen. The methanol futures price has declined, and the basis is relatively stable, indicating that the spot side still has some support. In the short - term, it is expected to decline, but due to the intertwined long and short factors such as the non - substantial cease - fire of the US - Iran conflict and the non - restart of Iranian methanol plants, the actual progress needs to be monitored. [15] - **PP**: The spot price has been range - bound, strengthening by about 100 - 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The mainstream price of East China drawn wire is 8100 - 8400 yuan/ton. Crude oil has fallen sharply, the geopolitical premium has been reversed, and polypropylene has risen and then fallen. The development of the geopolitical conflict is still uncertain, and short - term volatility has increased. Attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics. [15] - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has been adjusted, and the LLDPE transaction price is 7750 - 8500 yuan/ton. The price of North China LL has increased by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, the price of East China has increased by 50 - 250 yuan/ton, and the price of South China has decreased by 100 - 500 yuan/ton. The crude oil price has risen and then fallen, the cost of polyethylene has loosened, and the price has fallen significantly under the influence of market sentiment. The short - term volatility is severe. Temporarily observe and wait for the end of the price decline, and pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict. [16] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market has been generally stable. The supply pressure has continued to increase, and the daily output of urea has remained at a high level of over 220,000 tons. The expectation of resuming production and

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The industry is in a critical game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. Policy regulation and the culling of reproductive sows from March to May will determine the future market trend. Near - term prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - The rise in both futures and spot prices is due to the small amount of remaining grain in the hands of grass - roots farmers, increasing the grain - purchasing cost for the middle and lower reaches. The key to the price inflection point lies in the resumption of state - reserve auctions and an increase in imported soybeans. It is expected that the domestic soybean market will remain strong, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [1]. Corn - In the Northeast, the remaining grass - roots grain is less than 30%. With the rise in temperature and spot prices, the remaining grain is gradually released. Some traders are selling for profit, and the post - holiday operating rate of processing enterprises has increased slightly. The overall downstream demand is fair, and the purchase price remains strong. On the 9th, all the grain sources put up for auction by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation were sold, with a large local premium. Although crude oil's sharp decline has led to a correction in corn, considering the strong fundamentals, it is advisable to replenish stocks or buy on dips [1]. Eggs - As of the end of February 2026, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.35 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, which restricts the rapid and significant increase in egg prices. However, the number of newly - laid hens from March to April 2026 will decrease significantly, and the laying - hen inventory will decline from April to May. Although the short - term supply is still loose, the downside space is limited, and it is expected that egg prices will be stable with an upward trend. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [2]. Pigs - As of the end of December 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, 101.6% of the normal level, and it slightly decreased to 39.58 million in January 2026, still above the regulatory red line. The supply of pigs in the first half of 2026 will face great pressure. The state has purchased 10,000 tons of pork, indicating an oversupply. It is expected that the state will continue to purchase to ease the oversupply pressure. The industry has sufficient cash flow, and capacity reduction is difficult. If there is a deep and continuous loss in the second quarter, it will accelerate the consumption of industrial cash flow. From March to May, the spot price will be in a bottom - seeking stage, and it is expected to fall below the feed cash cost to stimulate capacity reduction [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [4][7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal price is running strongly due to the support of import costs and factors such as the oil - meal ratio, but the downstream oil mill soybean meal inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years. Future focus should be on port clearance, US soybean exports, and macro - events [1][3] - The price of corn is supported by deep - processing enterprises' price - raising to replenish stocks, but the supply is not loose. Attention should be paid to policy auctions and grain sales [4][5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 3068 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton or 3.20% from the previous day. In the spot market, prices in Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong all increased, with different changes in basis [1] - **Market Analysis**: Although the downstream oil mill soybean meal inventory has been consumed, it is still at a relatively high level. Affected by rising international freight and fertilizer prices, the Brazilian premium has strengthened, supporting the domestic soybean meal price [3] - **Strategy**: The strategy for soybean meal is neutral [4] Corn - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2395 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous day. The USDA has raised the global corn inventory forecast. Spot prices in Liaoning remained unchanged, while the corn starch price in Jilin increased [4] - **Market Analysis**: Deep - processing enterprises' price - raising to replenish stocks supports the corn price. However, due to previous snow and rain, transportation was affected. The northern port corn price is firm, and southern buyers are cautious. The overall corn supply is not loose, and the arrival of substitute grains will provide some supplements [5][6] - **Strategy**: The strategy for corn is neutral [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The upstream of the agricultural industry is recovering, while the middle - stream of the chemical industry is showing differentiation. The production and service industries are affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inflation [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Production and Service Industries - **Production Industry**: 32 IEA member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves. Japan plans to release national oil reserves as early as the 16th, and Germany will release 2.4 million tons of national oil reserves [1] - **Service Industry**: In February, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.5% year - on - year. There is a risk of inflation rebound in the US, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in July [1] 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - **Energy**: The prices of liquefied natural gas and international crude oil are continuously rising [2] - **Agriculture**: The prices of eggs and palm oil are recovering [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The price of aluminum has a slight recovery [2] 3.2.2. Middle - stream - **Chemical Industry**: The PX operating rate remains high, while the polyester operating rate is low [3] - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants is at a low level [3] - **Infrastructure**: The operating rate of road asphalt is at a low level [3] 3.2.3. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have a seasonal decline [4] - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has decreased [4] 3.3. Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: The spot prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, and cotton have increased to varying degrees, while the average wholesale price of pork has decreased [35] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The spot price of aluminum has increased, while the prices of copper, zinc, and nickel have decreased [35] - **Ferrous Metals**: The spot prices of螺纹钢, iron ore, and wire rod have increased [35] - **Non - metals**: The spot prices of natural rubber and glass have increased, and the China Plastic City price index has also increased significantly [35] - **Energy**: The spot prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas have increased, while the coal price has decreased slightly [35] - **Chemical Industry**: The spot prices of PTA, polyethylene, urea, and soda ash have increased [35] - **Real Estate**: The cement price index has decreased, while the building materials comprehensive index has increased slightly, and the concrete price index has remained unchanged [35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The estimated net increase in US soybean export sales for the week ending March 5 is 25 - 90 million tons, with 25 - 80 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 - 10 million tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] - The estimated net increase in US soybean meal export sales is 15 - 40 million tons, with 15 - 35 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 - 5 million tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] - The estimated net change in US soybean oil export sales is a decrease of 1 million tons to an increase of 1.5 million tons, with a decrease of 1 million tons to an increase of 1.5 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] - Argentina's Rosario Grain Exchange maintains its 2025/26 soybean production forecast at 48 billion tons due to February's rainfall [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production from March 1 - 10, 2026, increased by 1.55% month - on - month, with a 4.29% increase in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.52% decrease in oil extraction rate [1] - The Middle East conflict has pushed up shipping and insurance costs, leading to a slowdown in new palm oil export orders and potentially increasing Indonesia's inventory and pressuring palm oil prices [1] - Since the conflict began, palm oil has lost its price advantage compared to soybean oil and sunflower oil, with its price increase exceeding that of its competitors [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Imported Soybean Futures Crushing Profit - No relevant content [3] Fat and Oil Import Profit - No relevant content [5] Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from March 5 - 11, 2026, are provided [8] Protein Meal Basis - No relevant content Fat and Oil Basis - No relevant content Fat and Oil Futures Price Spreads - No relevant content

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as the Middle - East situation, inflation, and supply - demand relationships. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][9][10] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices denominated in London gold fell 0.14% to $5182.875 per ounce on Wednesday night. Domestic gold exchange 9999 rose 0.49% to 1150.42, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract rose 0.17% to 1151.98 yuan per gram [1] - **Fundamentals**: US inflation continues to cool, with February CPI up 2.4% and core CPI up 2.5% year - on - year. The inflation problem caused by the Iran issue has not been reflected in the data. The IEA approved the release of a record 4 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. Domestic gold ETFs continued to flow out slightly, and some metal inventories changed [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold; for silver, short - term investors are advised to leave the market and wait and see [1] Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated yesterday [2] - **Fundamentals**: The Middle - East situation intensified, and metals were under pressure. The supply of copper ore remained tight, but refined copper inventories increased rapidly. The spot premium of flat - water copper in East and South China was 30 yuan and 20 yuan respectively, and the refined - scrap price difference was about 1200 yuan [2] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [2] - **Aluminum** - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 1.35% to 25215 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 260 yuan per ton, with the LME price at 3440 US dollars per ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [2] - **Alumina** - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract increased by 1.06% to 2869 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 192 yuan per ton [2][3] - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina plants was relatively stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to maintain a shock operation [3] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8620 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 0.06%, an increase in open interest of 4910 lots to 248864 lots (+2.01%), and a decrease in trading volume of 60018 lots to 122488 lots (-32.89%) [3] - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces increased this week, mainly in Xinjiang. Social inventories decreased slightly. The output of polysilicon in February was within 80,000 tons, and it is expected to exceed 80,000 tons per month after resuming work in March. The organic silicon industry's quotation increased, and the weekly output increased slightly. The price of aluminum alloy continued to rise, and the operating rate was relatively stable [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The disk is expected to fluctuate between 8100 - 9000. If large factories still have resumption plans, consider shorting on rallies [3] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 155,040 yuan per ton (-7960), with a closing price decrease of 4.8% [3] - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of SMM Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) remained unchanged at 2240 US dollars per ton, and the SMM electric carbon price increased by 500 yuan to 159,000 yuan per ton. The weekly output increased by 768 tons to 22590 tons. SMM expects the production volume in March to be 106,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7%. The production volume of lithium iron phosphate in March is expected to be 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.3%; the production volume of ternary materials in March is expected to be 84,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1%. It is expected to maintain destocking in Q1, and the sample inventory decreased by 720 tons to 99,300 tons [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The low - level inventory supports the price to fluctuate around the 150,000 - yuan center. It is expected that the destocking amplitude will narrow in March, and the subsequent upward driving force still needs to wait and see the prosperity of the new energy vehicle terminal consumption [3] - **Polycrystalline Silicon** - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 42590 yuan per ton, up 140 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.33%, a decrease in open interest of 104 lots to 34909 lots (-0.30%), and a decrease in trading volume of 2146 lots to 4663 lots (-31.52%) [3] - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output remained flat. The industry inventory increased by 4.2% this week. The warehouse receipts increased slightly, mainly due to the registration of the Xinte brand. The prices of downstream products all declined slightly. The production schedules of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in March have recovered month - on - month, but the year - on - year performance is still weak [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by position limits, the liquidity of the polycrystalline silicon futures contract is limited. The disk is expected to fluctuate between 40000 - 44000. Pay attention to the actual purchase order prices of downstream products [3] - **Tin** - **Market Performance**: Tin prices fluctuated yesterday [3] - **Fundamentals**: The Middle - East situation intensified, and market risk appetite decreased significantly. The import of tin ore is gradually recovering, but there is still a large gap from the pre - shutdown level. Yesterday, the warehouse receipts increased by 322 tons, and the premium of deliverable brands was 1000 - 1500 yuan. The London structure was 250 contango [3] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [3] Black Industry - **Rebar** - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3125 yuan per ton, up 27 yuan per ton from the previous night's closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: The apparent demand for building materials increased by 1710000 tons to 3920000 tons, and the output increased by 450000 tons to 4130000 tons. The steel spot market transaction is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply and demand are weak. The demand expectation for building materials is weak, but the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year, and the contradiction is limited. The demand for plates is recovering, and direct and indirect exports remain at a high level. The inventory level is still high, but the inventory accumulation amplitude is slightly higher than the seasonality. The profit of steel mills is poor, and the output increase space is limited [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions. The reference range for RB05 is 3090 - 3150 [4] - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 791 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan per ton from the previous night's closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: The shipping volume of Australia and Brazil decreased by 13% to 23.42 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9%. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral. The molten iron output decreased significantly month - on - month, and was basically the same year - on - year. The first round of coke price reduction was implemented, and there is still an expectation of further reduction. The profit of steel mills is poor, and the subsequent increase slope of blast furnace output is limited. The supply is in line with the seasonal law. The inventory of blast furnace steel mills is slightly high, and the inventory days are above the historical average. Although the total port inventory has increased by about 20 million tons to 170 million tons year - on - year, the proportion of mainstream iron ore inventory at ports is extremely low, and the structural contradiction persists. The iron ore maintains a forward discount structure but is slightly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is slightly on the high side [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 770 - 800 [4] - **Coking Coal** - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1150.5 yuan per ton, up 32 yuan per ton from the previous night's closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the production restrictions during the Two Sessions, the molten iron output decreased by 57000 tons to 228000 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year decrease of 29000 tons. The first round of coke price increase was implemented before the festival, and steel mills are currently planning a price reduction. The profit of steel mills is poor, and the subsequent increase slope of blast furnace output may be gentle. The port customs clearance at the supply end remains at a high level, and the inventories at various links are differentiated. The inventories at ports and mines are high, while the inventories at other links are low, and the overall inventory level is low. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure is maintained, and the futures valuation is on the high side [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions. The reference range for JM05 is 1110 - 1170 [4] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans continued to rise [5] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in South America, and more than half of the Brazilian soybeans have been harvested. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and exports meet expectations. In general, the global supply - demand is expected to be loose [5] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, US soybeans are strong, trading on the macro - crude oil drive. Pay attention to the macro - crude oil and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is also strong in the short term, but the difficulty of unilateral trading increases. Pay attention to the macro - crude oil and the realization of South American production [5] - **Corn** - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices were strong, and spot prices continued to rise [5] - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply and demand, the grain sales progress is close to 70%, the grain sales pressure is not large, and the willingness to sell is not strong, with a slow sales progress. The inventories at ports and downstream are at a low level, downstream enterprises are in losses, but their bargaining power is weak, and the current spot price is still dominated by the producing areas. Pay attention to the weather and the purchase - sales rhythm [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: With little remaining grain and downstream restocking, the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [6] - **Fats and Oils** - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose yesterday [6] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, MPOB showed that the Malaysian production in February decreased by 18.6% month - on - month, and it is expected to enter the seasonal production increase period later. On the demand side, MPOB showed that the Malaysian exports in February decreased by 22.5% month - on - month. The Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.9% to 2.7 million tons [6] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, fats and oils are strong following crude oil, but the difficulty of unilateral trading increases. Pay attention to the subsequent crude oil and the production in the producing areas [6] - **Sugar** - **Market Performance**: The 05 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5429 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.24%. The basis of Nanning spot - Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract is 26 yuan per ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar processing after tax with additional quota is 610 yuan per ton [6] - **Fundamentals**: Due to the soaring international crude oil price, the ethanol price has risen, and the market is worried that the upcoming new - season Brazil may use sugarcane to produce ethanol, with an expected significant reduction in the sugar - making ratio. Coupled with the under - expected production increase in India, the international sugar price has returned to above 14 cents per pound. In terms of domestic sugar pressing, the estimated sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 crushing season has been continuously raised to 7.2 - 7.3 million tons. The single - month production in Guangxi in February is expected to reach the highest level in recent years, and Guangxi has entered the inventory accumulation stage. Recently, macro - funds have allocated long positions in sugar. Affected by the oil price and policy support, it is difficult for Zhengzhou sugar to fall in the short term. The rebound height depends on the cooling of the Middle - East situation, the trend of the oil price, and the sugar - ethanol ratio in the new - season Brazil [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see [6] - **Cotton** - **Market Performance**: Overnight, the ICE US cotton futures price rose first and then fell, and the international crude oil futures price fluctuated strongly [6] - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, in March, USDA raised the global cotton production in the 25/26 year by 1.1 million bales and lowered the consumption by 140,000 bales. In February, Vietnam's cotton imports were 104,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.6%. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose first and then fell. In March, BCO data lowered the total supply and ending inventory of domestic cotton in the 26/27 year and raised the total demand [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips. The price range is 15300 - 15800 yuan per ton [6] - **Eggs** - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot prices were stable [6] - **Fundamentals**: Currently, the demand has recovered, the market sales have accelerated, and the inventory has decreased, but the breeding end is not willing to cull, and the overall supply is sufficient. Egg prices are expected to run at a low level [6] - **Trading Strategy**: With the recovery of demand, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [6] - **Hogs** - **Market Performance**: Hog futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and spot prices continued to fall [6] - **Fundamentals**: In March, the slaughter volume at the breeding end increased significantly compared with February, and the slaughter weight is at a high level in recent years. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, with strong supply and weak demand. The futures and spot prices are expected to run weakly. Pay attention to the recent slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm [6] - **Trading Strategy**: With strong supply and weak demand, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE** - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract rose significantly yesterday. The low - price spot quotation in North China was 8000 yuan per ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was the disk price minus 200, with the basis weakening. The market trading performance was average. Overseas, the US dollar price rose steadily, and the import window was closed [8] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, there will be no new device put into production in the first half of the year. Some existing devices plan to reduce the load and stop production due to the expected shortage of crude oil caused by the US - Iran conflict, and domestic supply has decreased significantly. The import window has been closed, and with the easing of the US - Iran geopolitical situation, the import volume is expected to decrease. In general, the short - term domestic supply pressure has eased. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the demand has improved month - on - month. March and April are the peak seasons for agricultural film demand [8] - **Trading