投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 n 资产观点：国内权益市场的政策预期和额外流动性依然可以提供上⾏的 ⽀撑。国债整体中性，短端机会好于⻓端，但赔率有限。贵⾦属中的⻩⾦ 维持多头标配，⽩银暂时观望。有⾊⾦属在产业逻辑⽀撑下仍然向好，但 短期内市场挤压拥挤交易泡沫，待市场波动率降低同时，可抓住短期下跌 的机会逢低布局。⿊⾊商品整体偏震荡，原油或在地缘⽀撑下有所上⾏， 但不确定性较⼤，因此建议保持观望。 n ⻛险提⽰：地缘冲突加剧⻛险，关税冲突⼴泛升级，国内增量政策和经 济修复不及预期，美联储货币政策⼤幅偏离预期。 • 国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属涨幅居前。 n 今⽇市场：根据Wind数据，今日国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属 涨幅居前，铂金涨10.58%；基本金属全部上涨，沪锡涨6.61%；非金属建 材全部上涨，玻璃涨0.56%；化工品跌幅居前，苯乙烯跌2.87%；农副产品 多数下跌，原木跌1.90%；黑色系全部下跌，硅铁跌1.44%；能源品全部下 跌，低硫燃料油跌1.22%；新能源材料多数下跌，工业硅跌0.82%；航运期 货全部下跌，集运指数(欧线)跌0.39%；油脂油料多数下跌，豆粕跌0. ...

Group 1: Soybean Meal - CBOT soybean ended a four-day rise due to ongoing soybean harvesting in Brazil and profit-taking after last week's gains [2][9] - Brazil's soybean harvest is at 16%, compared to 15% during the same period last year [2][9] - Domestic soybean meal market is experiencing fluctuations with high import costs supporting prices, while ample domestic supply increases inventory pressure [2][9] Group 2: Palm Oil - BMD palm oil prices increased, following the upward trend in surrounding markets, as traders await the MPOB report [10] - January palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to decrease to 2.91 million tons, a 4.64% month-on-month reduction [10] - Palm oil production is projected to decline by 12% to 1.61 million tons, while exports increased by 14.9% to 1.79 million tons [10] Group 3: Live Pig - Live pig futures showed weak fluctuations, with the near-month contract 2603 continuing to decline, closing down 0.52% at 11,565 yuan/ton [11] - The average daily price of live pigs in China was 11.66 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3 yuan/kg week-on-week [11] - Supply is currently abundant, leading to downward pressure on pig prices, with seasonal demand expected to recover post-Chinese New Year [11] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures experienced slight adjustments, with the main contract 2603 closing up 0.17% at 2,909 yuan/500 kg [12] - The national average egg price was 3.42 yuan/jin, a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/jin week-on-week [12] - As the Chinese New Year approaches, downstream purchasing activity is subdued, and some regions have halted pricing [12] Group 5: Corn - Corn prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the March contract transitioning to May, and market activity declining ahead of the Chinese New Year [13] - Prices in Northeast China remained stable, with farmers showing low enthusiasm for selling [13] - Overall, corn prices are expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation pattern before the holiday, with limited potential for significant volatility [13]

农产品早报 2026-02-10 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 周一郑州白糖期货价格小幅反弹，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5261 元/吨，较上个交易日上涨 33 元/吨，或 0.63%。现货方面，广西制糖集团报价 5280-5380 元/吨，较上个交易日上涨 10 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 据 UNICA 数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 1 月上半月，巴西中南部地区累计产糖 4023 万吨，同比增加 34.5 万吨。巴西航运机构 Williams 发布的数据显示，截至 2 月月 4 日当周，巴西港口等待装运食糖的船只数 量为 49 艘，此前一周为 54 艘。港口等待装运的食糖数量为 156.44 万吨，此前一周为 178.26 万吨。StoneX 预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖市场将维持供应过剩，预估过剩量为 290 万吨。印度全国糖业合作联盟联合 会 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Spring Festival stocking is almost over. Due to the good profit situation, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the overall reduction has weakened recently due to the good egg price performance. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3790, up 20 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3392, down 32; JD09 closed at 3875, down 4. The 01 - 05 spread was 398, up 52; the 05 - 09 spread was - 483, down 28; the 09 - 01 spread was 85, down 24. The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybeans also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.3 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.54 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of eggs and culled chickens in most regions remained stable, with only a few regions showing price fluctuations [2][4]. - **Profit Calculation**: The average price of culled chickens was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the profit per chicken was 12.72 yuan, up 0.34 yuan. The average price of corn was 2369, up 1; the average price of soybean meal was 3174, unchanged; the compound feed for laying hens was 2.61, unchanged [2]. 2. Fundamental Information - **Egg Price and Sales**: The national mainstream egg price remained stable, and the sales volume in the representative selling areas as of February 5 was 7210 tons, down 2.3% from the previous week, but still at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [4][5]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: The national inventory of laying hens in January was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected. The monthly output of chicks in January was 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9% and little change year - on - year [4]. - **Culled Chicken Situation**: The number of culled chickens in the main producing areas in the week of February 6 was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week, and the average culling age was 495 days, a 2 - day increase from the previous week [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of February 5, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.52 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/jin from the previous week; on February 6, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 12.65 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 0.37 yuan/jin from the previous week. The production and circulation inventories also increased slightly [5]. 3. Trading Logic - Near the Spring Festival, the Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end. Due to the good profit, the culling enthusiasm has decreased, and the overall capacity reduction has slowed down. Considering the off - season of egg consumption after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has improved, the overall reduction has weakened due to the good egg price. So, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8].

新春将至，年味愈浓，广货飘香。2月7日，广东省"广货行天下"大V主播地市行全省21个地市首发站活动——"广货行天下"之大V主播地市行（清远专场） 暨粤味珍品·清远好食材年货节，在清远市清城区凤城广场启幕。本次活动以"线上直播+线下展销"深度融合模式，汇聚省市政企、全国百名主播达人及媒体 多方力量，打造沉浸式新春消费体验，让清远好食材、广东粤味珍品走出粤北，直达全国万家，成为广东2026年开年激活乡村消费、助力乡村振兴的生动实 践。 活动现场 活动集结44个主播团队近百名网红达人现场助阵，还吸引42家企业线下参展、17家企业携66款优质产品参与线上带货，现场设置40个特色产品展销摊位、27 个直播间，同步开展溯源直播等创新环节，线上线下联动掀起清远好物推广热潮，让岭南年味通过镜头和市集，飘向全国消费市场。据统计，广货行天下之 大V主播地市行清远年货节专场启动以来，截至2月7日18:00，共实现线上销售超1500万元，带动清远同期直播电商网络零售额同比增长15.9%，实现新春消 费"开门红"。 政企媒联动聚合力 为全省广货推广筑造示范平台 此次活动是清远市积极响应全省"广货行天下"战略部署，推动优质农产品出村进城 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is experiencing increased volatility and overall weakness, influenced by geopolitical tensions, a stronger dollar, and diverging global economic growth expectations [3][15]. Group 1: Market Overview - The energy sector is expected to face downward pressure on oil prices due to anticipated supply being relatively loose [15]. - Precious metals are showing a "short-term pullback, long-term bullish" trend, with gold prices supported by global uncertainties and ongoing central bank purchases [15]. - Industrial metals are experiencing significant differentiation, with demand for metals related to new energy, AI, and power transition remaining resilient [15]. - The competition for strategic resources like rare earths is intensifying, with supply chain security becoming a key focus for various countries [15]. Group 2: Commodity Trends - The overall trend in commodities is characterized as oscillating, with strong bullish sectors including non-ferrous metals, precious metals, and energy chemicals, while agricultural products are underperforming [16]. - Notable bullish commodities include tin, gold, lithium carbonate, and alumina, while bearish markets include rebar, iron ore, hot-rolled steel, and live pigs [16]. - The global financial market is maintaining a mixed oscillating pattern, with stable macro sentiment and no extreme risks or strong stimulus policies impacting commodity pricing [16]. Group 3: Trading Strategies and Performance - The company executed a bearish strategy on caustic soda, achieving a maximum profit of 25% before exiting the position [17]. - A bearish strategy was also implemented for live pigs, with entry points set between 11,500-11,600, stop-loss at 11,700-11,800, and take-profit at 11,400-11,300, based on supply and inventory fundamentals [17]. - Alumina is being closely monitored due to its significant price increase, indicating a strong bullish trend [18]. Group 4: Reflections and Future Strategies - The effectiveness of trend trading is highlighted, with caustic soda continuing its downward trend and alumina experiencing rapid upward movement [21]. - The market is showing extreme differentiation, necessitating a focus on strong trend commodities while avoiding weak and volatile trades [21]. - Strict risk management practices are in place, including position limits and defined stop-loss and take-profit levels, with ongoing monitoring of alumina's bullish trend and live pigs' bearish trend [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment outlook for the corn industry is "oscillating," with short - term expectations for the corn futures market to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, it is expected to remain range - bound, with attention to factors such as the pressure of ground - stored grain sales, policy grain release policies, import policies, and the growth of new - season wheat [5]. 2. Report's Core View - The current corn purchase and sales are nearing the end, and the futures market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply side is bullish, the demand side is neutral - bearish, inventory is neutral - bearish, basis/spread is bullish, profit is neutral - bullish, and valuation is neutral. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate in the short - term and after the Spring Festival [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. The current grain - selling progress at the grass - roots level has exceeded 60%, faster than the same period last year. There may be some selling pressure around the Spring Festival, but this year's grain quality is relatively dry, and the inventories of mid - and downstream enterprises are low, so the expected impact of selling pressure is limited. The planting cost in the 25/26 season decreased, with increased production in the Northeast and Northwest and decreased production in North China, and the country as a whole is expected to have a bumper harvest. The expected rent cost for corn planting in the 26/27 season is rising (for example, in Heilongjiang, it is expected to rise by 200 yuan per mu) [5]. - **Demand**: Neutral - bearish. The self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit has turned positive, the pig inventory and weight are at a high level, and the capacity reduction is not obvious yet. The egg - poultry farming profit has recovered, and the speed of culling laying hens has slowed down. The short - term feed demand for corn is still supported. Under the expectation of capacity adjustment and policy control, the long - term feed demand is expected to shrink. Feed enterprises' inventories have increased month - on - month, and pre - festival stocking is basically over. Deep - processing enterprises' inventories have increased significantly, and pre - festival stocking is basically over. Traders have not built large - scale strategic inventories and have a certain demand for replenishing stocks [5]. - **Inventory**: Neutral - bearish. The domestic trade corn inventories at the north and south ports have increased month - on - month and are still at a low level. Feed enterprises' inventories have increased month - on - month, and deep - processing corn inventories have increased month - on - month [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis is at a relatively high level [5]. - **Profit**: Neutral - bullish. The self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs has returned to positive, the meat - poultry farming has a small profit, and the egg - poultry farming profit has recovered. The deep - processing starch and alcohol processing profits are in the red [5]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. Considering the basis, the valuation of the corn futures market is moderately low [5]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Pre - festival stocking is nearing the end, and the corn futures market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain, but this year's grain in the Northeast is relatively dry, and supported by the rigid demand for replenishing stocks of mid - and downstream enterprises, the expected selling pressure is limited. In addition, attention should be paid to post - festival policy grain release policies, import policy changes, and the growth of new - season wheat [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect range - bound movement; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents multiple charts, including the basis trend of the main corn futures contract, the average prices in different markets (such as Jinzhou Port, Heilongjiang, Shandong, and Shekou Port), the open interest trends of different corn futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 09), and the spreads between different contracts (C03 - C05, C05 - C09) [7][8][13]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Grain - Selling Progress**: Charts show the grain - selling progress in Northeast and North China [23]. - **Port and Processing Data**: Include the arrival volume of corn at northern ports, the remaining number of vehicles for deep - processing in Shandong, the price difference between Shekou Port and Jinzhou Port, the shipping volume of corn from the four northern ports, etc. [25][28]. - **Import Data**: The import of grains in January and February decreased, and the import profit of US corn was at a high level. Charts show the monthly import volumes of sorghum, corn, and barley in China, as well as the theoretical import profit of US Gulf corn [33][34]. - **Inventory Data**: The corn inventories at the north and south ports are at a low level. Data on the inventories of feed enterprises, deep - processing enterprises, and different ports (such as Guangdong Port) are presented, as well as the inventory days of feed enterprises and the monthly feed production volume [40][47][49]. - **Livestock and Poultry Farming Data**: Include the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs, the profit of purchasing and fattening pigs, the average price and weight of commercial pig slaughter, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers, the in - production inventory of parent - stock chickens, the egg - chicken farming profit, the age of culled laying hens, etc. [51][59][65]. - **Deep - Processing Data**: Deep - processing corn consumption has declined, and deep - processing corn inventories have increased significantly. The processing profit of starch is in the red, and starch inventories are being depleted. The开机 rate of alcohol has declined, and the processing profit is at a low level. There are also data on the开机 rate and profit of related downstream industries such as beverages, paper - making [68][73][97]. 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **January Report**: The corn stock - to - consumption ratios of major exporting countries in the 2025/26 season have been raised. The report shows the corn stock - to - consumption ratios of the US and other major exporting countries [116]. - **Export Data**: US corn export sales have performed well, and the report presents the export sales volume, cumulative export sales volume, and export sales volume to China of US corn [123].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 中国继续采购美豆，豆粕外强内弱 （豆粕周报2.2-2.6） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 巴西大豆产区天气短期正常 | 偏空 | 巴西大豆产区天气短期良 | | | | | 好。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆震荡回升，中国采购美 | 偏多 | 进口成本预计震荡偏弱，中 | | | 豆和南美大豆丰产交互影响 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期回落，油厂压 | 偏空 | 需求短期良好，油厂开机预 | | | 榨量回归高位 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to consolidate after a rebound on low volume. In the long - term, with a low - interest - rate environment and "asset shortage", the domestic market has abundant funds and the economy is bottoming out, so the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, so attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Market sentiment has recovered. In the context of tightening nickel ore supply in Indonesia, supply concerns may continue to disrupt the market. For different metals and commodities, their prices are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term consolidation after rebound, medium - to - long - term upward trend remains [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central bank warns of interest - rate risks, focus on Bank of Japan's decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Prices have rebounded due to improved downstream demand and increased risk appetite [1]. - Aluminum: Prices are oscillating strongly with limited industrial - end drivers and improved macro - sentiment [1]. - Alumina: Operating capacity has declined, but inventories have increased, and prices remain oscillating [1]. - Zinc: Cost center is stable, prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - Nickel: Prices have rebounded in the short term, affected by the situation in Indonesia. In the long term, high global inventories may be a constraint [1]. - Stainless steel: Futures are oscillating, with support from the raw - material side and improved macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to actual production by steel mills [1]. - Tin: Prices are volatile in the short term, and investors should focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Have rebounded due to improved liquidity, weak dollar index, and weak inflation expectations. They are expected to stabilize and oscillate before the Spring Festival [1]. - Platinum and lithium: May fluctuate strongly in a wide range in the short term due to improved liquidity [1]. Industrial Products - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Scheduled production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1]. - Polysilicon: Suggested to wait and see due to liquidity risks [1]. - Carbonate lithium: In the off - season for new - energy vehicles, with strong demand for energy storage and battery exports. There is a need for a correction after a large increase [1]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: High production and high inventory limit price increases, and the transmission from futures to spot prices is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive arbitrage positions can be taken [1]. - Iron ore: There is obvious pressure above the current level, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. Current supply and demand are weak, but energy - consumption control and anti - involution may affect supply [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with looser supply and demand in the medium term, and prices are under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal: Similar logic, mainly depending on capital sentiment during the off - season. Opportunities for high - point realization of spot goods or establishment of positive arbitrage positions should be grasped [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: Are expected to turn to an oscillating trend due to various factors such as the end of pre - festival stocking, purchase expectations, and tariff adjustments [1]. - Cotton: The market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver". Future policies, planting area, weather, and demand should be monitored [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If prices continue to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1]. - Corn: Is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain and policy changes [1]. - Soybean meal: Is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term, affected by factors such as US soybean exports and Brazilian discounts. The spot basis is expected to weaken [1]. - Pulp: With disturbances on the supply side and weakening demand after restocking, it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - Logs: Spot prices have risen, and with a decrease in February arrivals and rising foreign quotes, the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - Pigs: Spot prices are stabilizing, demand is supportive, and production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the US and Iran may hold peace talks, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down. The commodity market sentiment has turned bearish [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified, and supply is sufficient [1]. - BR rubber: The cost side has strong support, and there are expectations of export increases. Short - term downstream negative feedback is being realized, and the market should pay attention to pre - Spring Festival inventory clearance [1]. - PTA and short - fiber: The PX market is strong, driving up chemical products. PTA production is increasing, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence [1]. - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply - demand fundamentals, and the inventory has decreased [1]. - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, there are both long and short factors. Downstream negative feedback is obvious [1]. - PVC: Global production capacity expansion is limited in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared in the northwest [1]. - LPG: The CP price has risen, and the market is expected to weaken. The basis is expected to widen, and demand is short - term bearish [1]. - Container shipping on the European route: Pre - festival freight rates have peaked and declined. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights and plan to increase prices after the off - season in March [1].

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