Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The stock market has seen rapid rotation of hot sectors recently, with reduced risk appetite and short - term uncertainty, but the long - term policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market may face short - term risk preference decline, which is conducive to its repair. In the fourth quarter, it is necessary to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall situation may be volatile, and it may repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [7]. - For precious metals, the Fed's monetary policy is in the early stage of the easing cycle. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, buying on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, most metal prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as trade negotiation sentiment improvement and supply - side constraints [12][14]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices may be weak in the short term but have long - term upward potential. Iron ore prices will oscillate due to the tug - of - war between weak reality and macro expectations [33][36]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber prices may turn neutral, and crude oil prices are recommended to be observed in the short term [54][56]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of various products such as hogs, eggs, and grains are affected by supply and demand factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [79][81]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. There will be economic and trade consultations between China and the US. The R & D of new - generation batteries is being promoted [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term buying on dips is recommended [4]. - **Treasury Bond** - **Market Information**: Bond prices declined on Thursday. There will be China - US economic and trade consultations, and the central government held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for central enterprises. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference decline is beneficial to the bond market repair. The fourth - quarter situation may be volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The US will release September CPI data, and it is expected that the data may be lower than expected, which will support precious metal prices [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy and buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose. LME copper inventory increased, while domestic warehouse receipts decreased. The import of copper spot was at a loss [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to potential supply tightening and improved trade negotiation sentiment, copper prices may remain strong [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to rise. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the external LME aluminum inventory also decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: With the easing of trade tensions and low domestic inventory, aluminum prices may rise further [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose. Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and overseas registered zinc warehouse receipts were at a low level [15]. - **Strategy**: The domestic zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and the overseas market had structural risks. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. The lead ore port inventory increased, and the lead ingot social inventory decreased [18]. - **Strategy**: With the improvement of downstream demand and the reduction of inventory, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [18]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was weak [19]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly [20][21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices declined slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand from traditional industries was weak [22]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, tin prices may remain high and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. - **Carbonate Lithium** - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rose, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is strong, and the price may face pressure from supply recovery and hedging. It is necessary to pay attention to market changes [24]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rose slightly. The overseas price decreased, and the inventory increased [25]. - **Strategy**: The ore price may be under pressure after the rainy season, and the production capacity of alumina is excessive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel rose. The social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The market confidence has recovered, and the subsequent trend depends on the release of downstream demand [28]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy**: The cost supports the price, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [30]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased marginally [32]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, steel prices are weak, but in the long term, they may rise due to the loosening of the macro environment [33]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. The overseas shipment increased, and the iron water output decreased [34][35]. - **Strategy**: The demand for iron ore is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The price will oscillate due to the influence of macro expectations [36]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased. Soda ash prices rose slightly, and the inventory also increased [37][38]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and soda ash prices will continue to oscillate weakly [37][38]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly. The spot prices were higher than the futures prices [39]. - **Strategy**: The impact of trade frictions may ease. It is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound in the black sector [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices also rose. The supply of industrial silicon increased, and the polysilicon supply may decrease in the future [44][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices will oscillate, and polysilicon prices will be affected by supply and policy expectations [45][48]. Energy and Chemical - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose due to typhoon and stock market factors. The demand is in a seasonal off - season [50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and adopt a neutral strategy [54]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The US crude oil inventory decreased, and the SPR inventory increased [55]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [56]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose. The port inventory increased slowly, and the domestic start - up rate decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to potential supply disturbances and high port inventory [58]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand also increased [59][60]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices decreased, and styrene prices increased. The supply of pure benzene was abundant, and the demand for styrene increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short term due to inventory reduction and seasonal demand [62]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The production was high, and the demand was weak [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [64][65]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply was high, and the inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation [67]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply increased slightly, and the demand remained stable [68]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to weak processing fees and uncertain terminal demand [69]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: PX prices rose. The load was high, and the downstream demand was weak [70][71]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as there is no obvious driving force and it mainly follows the crude oil trend [72]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The inventory decreased, and the demand increased seasonally [73]. - **Strategy**: PE prices may remain low and oscillate due to high - level warehouse receipts and cost factors [74]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. The supply pressure was high, and the demand rebounded seasonally [75]. - **Strategy**: The overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost supply surplus suppresses the price [76]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs** - **Market Information**: Hog prices fluctuated. The supply and demand were in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, hog prices may be strong, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [79]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight increases. The supply was normal, and the demand was average [80]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may have limited upward space, and it is recommended to wait and see [81]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Soybean meal prices rose. The domestic soybean inventory was high, and the import of US soybeans was uncertain [82]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, there is support, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the expected abundant supply [84]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Oil prices fell. The palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia was high, and the supply pressure was large [85]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for a clearer production signal [86]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the prices of domestic processing factories decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter as the overall supply is expected to increase [89]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded. The new cotton purchase price increased, but the demand was weak [90]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited due to weak fundamentals [91].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign exchange market maintained strong resilience and vitality in September, with cross - border capital flows remaining active and balanced, and supply and demand in the foreign exchange market being relatively balanced. The total scale of China's foreign - related payments and receipts in the first three quarters reached a record high [1]. - The prices of crude oil, precious metals, and stock indices showed different trends. Crude oil prices were difficult to reverse the downward trend; precious metals experienced significant adjustments at high levels; stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: As of October 21, the total debt of the US federal government exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [5]. - **Domestic News**: In September, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group in urban China was 17.7%, 7.2% for the 25 - 29 age group, and 3.9% for the 30 - 59 age group [6]. - **Industry News**: In the first three quarters, the total transport turnover, passenger volume, and cargo volume of the civil aviation industry were 1220.3 billion ton - kilometers, 580 million passengers, and 739,500 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.3%, 5.2%, and 14% [7]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.53%, the European STOXX 50 index decreased by 0.47%, and the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.10%. ICE Brent crude oil increased by 4.36%, while London gold and silver decreased by 0.64% and 0.46% respectively. Other varieties also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Indices**: After a high - level shock in September, stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment was expected to remain loose, and external funds were also likely to flow in. The market style might return to value in the fourth quarter [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank was expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, and there might be reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, which would support the price of treasury bond futures [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.65% at night, but the downward trend of oil prices was difficult to reverse [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.13% at night. The operating rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and coastal methanol inventories continued to rise. The methanol market fluctuated more due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fluctuated on Wednesday. Supply pressure might gradually emerge, and demand support was relatively limited. The market was expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. After continuous declines, the market sentiment gradually stabilized [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures closed slightly up, and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Both were in the process of inventory digestion, and the market was still cautious [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices adjusted significantly at high levels. After a rapid rise, there were profit - taking positions, and the driving factors weakened, leading to sharp price adjustments [3][20]. - **Copper**: The supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the smelting output continued to grow. The Indonesian mine accident might lead to a supply - demand gap in the global copper market, supporting copper prices in the long term [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The smelting output was expected to continue to increase. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices might be weaker than foreign ones, and the overall price might fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply increased, demand showed some growth, and inventory decreased. The futures price fluctuated and rose. It was expected to remain volatile in the short term, and the downward adjustment space was limited [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures oscillated at night. The steel price and demand showed some improvement, but the possibility of blast furnace production cuts due to shrinking profits could not be ignored. The short - term market was expected to oscillate at a high level [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices stabilized. The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global iron ore shipment decreased recently. The port inventory decreased rapidly. The market was expected to be strong and fluctuate upward [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices were stable and improving. The supply pressure was gradually emerging, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not significant. The market was expected to be bullish in the medium term [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean export inspection volume was higher than expected, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress was good. The domestic market was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats prices were weak at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased, but the market was under pressure due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade [29]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices were weak at night. The global sugar market entered the inventory accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market was expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated. The US cotton market was in a short - term oscillation. The domestic cotton market was under pressure from weak demand, but the price was supported by factors such as slow harvesting progress and rising purchase prices. It was expected to be strong and fluctuate in the short term [31]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was strongly oscillating. Maersk's price increase in November indicated its intention to support prices. The market continued to bet on the year - end peak season, and the upward driving force was accumulating. The far - month contract was slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation [32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the construction of a new development pattern in China, highlighting the growth of the futures market and the performance of key commodities such as stock indices, precious metals, and copper [1][2][3]. Futures Market Overview - As of October 9, 2025, the total funds in China's futures market reached approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [1]. - Client equity in futures companies totaled about 1.91 trillion yuan, also reflecting a 24% growth from the end of 2024 [1]. Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the previous trading day seeing a slight recovery led by the communication sector, while the non-ferrous metals sector lagged [2]. - The market turnover was 1.75 trillion yuan, and as of October 17, the financing balance decreased by 27.3 billion yuan to 2.412835 trillion yuan [2]. - The article suggests that the stock indices are entering a phase of directional choice, with domestic liquidity expected to remain loose and external funds likely to flow into the domestic market due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and RMB appreciation [2]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have been strong, although recent upward momentum has slowed [3]. - The article notes that central banks are increasing gold reserves amid rising global tensions and distrust in the financial system, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Silver's supply-demand imbalance is highlighted, with potential for increased volatility following rapid price increases [3]. Copper Market - Copper prices rose in the night session, supported by tight concentrate supply and high smelting output [3][20]. - The article mentions that investment in the power grid continues to grow, while real estate remains weak, impacting overall demand for copper [20]. - The potential for a global copper supply gap due to mining issues in Indonesia is expected to support copper prices in the long term [20]. Key Commodities Performance - The article provides insights into various commodities, including palm oil, corn, and lithium carbonate, indicating mixed performance and market dynamics influenced by external factors such as trade tensions and supply chain issues [5][22][28]. International and Domestic News - The U.S. and Australia signed an agreement to enhance the production of rare earths and critical minerals, with over $3 billion planned for investment in key mineral projects [6]. - China's LPR remained unchanged for five consecutive months, reflecting stable policy rates and potential for further monetary easing in response to economic conditions [7]. Industry Developments - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced the listing of new futures contracts for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene, expanding the range of tradable products [8]. Market Trends - The article notes that the market is currently cautious, with a focus on upcoming trade talks and the potential impact of U.S. fiscal policies on global markets [3][19]. - The overall sentiment in the commodities market is influenced by macroeconomic factors, including inflation expectations and geopolitical developments [3][19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence, with funds switching between high - and low - valued stocks and rapid rotation. Market risk appetite has decreased, and the short - term index faces uncertainty. However, in the long run, with policy support for the capital market remaining unchanged, the main strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - Recently, Sino - US trade disputes have flared up again, and the short - term decline in risk appetite is conducive to the recovery of the bond market. But the future of tariff progress is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve, and it is expected to fluctuate, with attention paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - The Fed's monetary policy is in the early stage of the easing cycle, and the most important driver, the new Fed chair candidate, has not been announced. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for precious metals [10]. - For most commodities, Sino - US trade frictions and the uncertainty of relevant negotiations have an impact on market sentiment. However, different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals, which jointly determine their price trends. For the black sector, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to rebound [40][41]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market News**: The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in Sino - US economic and trade consultations. CATL's Q3 net profit was 18.5 billion yuan, a 41% year - on - year increase; revenue was 104.19 billion yuan, a 12.9% year - on - year increase. Apple's stock price hit a record high, and iPhone 17 demand was strong. Micron's CBO said the DRAM memory supply situation in 2026 would be more severe [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous rise, high - flying sectors face divergence, and short - term index is uncertain. In the long run, it is advisable to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. The GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. September's social consumption, fixed - asset investment, and real estate - related data showed different trends [5]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade disputes are beneficial to the bond market in the short term, but the future is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The bond market may fluctuate, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose. The market has priced in two consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in October and December. The Fed may end quantitative tightening, and small - bank loan risks have supported precious metal prices [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy for precious metals. The reference range for Shanghai gold is 934 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 10937 - 12500 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Overnight, copper prices fluctuated and rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories increased. The spot premium in Shanghai and Guangdong changed, and the import loss narrowed [12]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but sentiment has improved. Copper raw material supply is tight, and prices may be strong in the short term. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 84800 - 86500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10600 - 10800 dollars/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Aluminum prices fluctuated and declined. LME and domestic inventories changed, and the market trading atmosphere was light [14]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade tensions have eased, and the price may be strong in the short term. The reference range for Shanghai aluminum is 20800 - 21100 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2750 - 2800 dollars/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market News**: Shanghai zinc index rose slightly, and LME zinc fell. Domestic and overseas inventories and basis changed [16]. - **Strategy**: Domestic zinc ore inventory decreased, and zinc ingot inventory increased. It is expected to be weak in the short term [18]. Lead - **Market News**: Shanghai lead index fell slightly. Domestic and overseas inventories and basis changed, and domestic social inventory decreased [19]. - **Strategy**: Lead ore port inventory increased, and downstream demand improved. It is expected to be strong in the short term [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices fluctuated at a low level. Spot prices were stable, and nickel ore and nickel - iron prices were also stable. MHP coefficient prices were high [20]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may have a limited impact. Nickel - iron prices are weak, and inventory pressure is high. In the long run, there is support. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on dips [20]. Tin - **Market News**: Shanghai tin prices fell. Supply was tight due to slow tin - mine复产 in Myanmar and crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia. Demand in some sectors was weak, but there was marginal improvement in the peak season [21]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may affect sentiment, but supply - demand is in tight balance, and prices may fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures price also increased slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: The downstream of lithium batteries is in the peak season, and supply is less than demand. Pay attention to the supply recovery. The reference range for the 2601 contract is 73800 - 78000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose slightly. Spot prices, overseas prices, and inventory changed [24]. - **Strategy**: Ore prices have short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The smelting capacity is in excess, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may support prices. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless - steel futures prices fell slightly. Spot prices, raw - material prices, and inventory changed [26]. - **Strategy**: The price limit increase by Qing Shan Steel has boosted market confidence, but demand is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices fell. Inventory and trading volume changed [28]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations may improve sentiment, but high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices changed. Futures and spot prices, inventory, and trading volume all had corresponding changes [31]. - **Strategy**: The overall commodity market was weak. Steel prices may fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term trend is unchanged. Pay attention to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US negotiations [32]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron - ore futures prices fell slightly. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [33]. - **Strategy**: Supply has increased, and demand has decreased. Steel - mill profitability has declined, and prices are expected to be weak. Pay attention to the support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: Glass prices rose, and soda - ash prices rose slightly. Inventory, trading volume, and basis changed [35][37]. - **Strategy**: Glass and soda - ash markets are expected to be weak in the short term due to high inventory and weak demand [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices rose slightly. Spot prices and basis changed [38]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade frictions and weak demand have pressured prices, but the market may have expectations for future meetings. It is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector trend, and ferrosilicon has no obvious supply - demand contradiction [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: Industrial - silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Spot prices, inventory, and basis changed [42][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial - silicon supply is under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate. Polysilicon supply may decrease at the end of the month, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices fluctuated and recovered. Typhoon Fengshen may affect production areas. Tire - enterprise operating rates changed, and inventory decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy**: Rubber prices are stable in the short term. It is recommended to go long with a stop - loss and consider a hedging strategy [52]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude - oil futures prices fell, and refined - oil futures prices changed. Inventory data showed different trends [53]. - **Strategy**: Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and use a range - trading strategy [54]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices changed. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [55]. - **Strategy**: Import unloading is delayed, and supply has decreased slightly. Demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices changed. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [57]. - **Strategy**: Short - term production has decreased, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long on dips [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure - benzene and styrene prices changed. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [59]. - **Strategy**: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened. Supply is abundant, and demand is increasing seasonally. Prices may stop falling [60]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices rose. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [61]. - **Strategy**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to go short on rallies [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene - glycol prices were stable. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [63]. - **Strategy**: Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising. It is recommended to go short on rallies [64]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [65]. - **Strategy**: Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [66]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [67]. - **Strategy**: PX load is high, and downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [70]. - **Strategy**: Futures prices rose. Supply is high, and demand is increasing seasonally. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [72]. - **Strategy**: Futures prices rose. Supply is high, and demand is weak. Prices are under pressure [73]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market News**: Pig prices mainly rose. There are risks in product sales, and demand may decrease [75]. - **Strategy**: Supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [76]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices fell. Supply is normal, and demand is weak [77]. - **Strategy**: Spot prices may rebound slightly, but the space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybeans rose. Domestic soybean - meal prices were stable, and inventory decreased [79]. - **Strategy**: Domestic supply pressure is high, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Malaysian palm - oil exports increased, and production also increased. Domestic palm - oil and soybean - oil inventories changed [83]. - **Strategy**: There is support for the price center. It is recommended to buy on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot prices fell. Brazilian production data and Chinese import data were released [85]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to be bearish in the long run, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton futures prices rebounded. Spot prices, acquisition prices, and import data all had corresponding changes [88]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals limit the upward space. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Markets**: - Gold: Short - term price is in a volatile phase, with a risk of decline. [14][15] - U.S. Stock Index Futures: Market risk preference is expected to improve, but volatility remains high. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and buy on dips. [21] - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market has strengthened, but risks exist. It is recommended to take a cautious approach in short - term trading. [27][29] - Foreign Exchange Futures (USD Index): The USD is expected to be volatile in the short term. [18][19] - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices. [25] - **Commodity Markets**: - Agricultural Products: - Sugar: ICE raw sugar is not expected to continue to decline significantly. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and excessive short - selling is not recommended. [36][37] - Cotton: The upside of Zhengzhou cotton is limited, and it is under pressure in the short term. [41][42] - Soybean Meal: The price of soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile. [47] - Corn Starch: The price difference between rice and flour may be repaired when approaching delivery. [51] - Red Dates: It is recommended to wait and see before the red dates are harvested and priced. [54] - Corn: The 11 - contract is expected to decline, and the 01 - contract should be approached with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish strategy. [55] - Black Metals: - Rebar/HRC: Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and a volatile approach is recommended. [45][46] - Coking Coal/Coke: The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed. [49][50] - Non - ferrous Metals: - Copper: The price of copper is expected to be volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips for mid - term long positions. [57][58] - Polysilicon: It is expected that the spot price will remain flat in October. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and attention should be paid to buying on dips when the price is at a discount to the spot. [61][62] - Industrial Silicon: It is more cost - effective to buy on dips. [64] - Lead: Unilateral trading should be observed with a volatile perspective, and mid - term positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets can be considered. [65][66] - Zinc: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to mid - term positive spreads for arbitrage. [68] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term trading should be range - bound, and mid - term short - selling opportunities should be considered after the peak demand season. [69][70] - Nickel: It is recommended for the allocation portfolio to buy mid - to long - term long positions on dips, and for the speculative portfolio to consider selling near - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls. [72][73] - Energy Chemicals: - Carbon Emissions: CEA is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term. [74][75] - Crude Oil: The price of crude oil is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term. [75][76] - Methanol: It is recommended to wait and see. [77][78] - PVC: The price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and the downside space is limited. [80] - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda futures is expected to be weak in the short term. [82] - Bottle Chips: The supply - demand contradiction may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and there is pressure on the processing fee. [85] - Urea: It is not recommended to be overly bearish when the 2601 contract falls below 1600 yuan/ton. [88] - Soda Ash: A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the progress of new capacity. [90] - Float Glass: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of long glass and short soda ash when the spread widens. [92] - Shipping Index: For the 12 - contract, continue to pay attention to low - buying opportunities, and pay attention to risk management due to geopolitical disturbances. [94][95] 3. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - **News**: Trump met with Zelensky, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange raised the margin for precious metals. [13][14] - **Comment**: Gold prices fluctuated sharply on Friday, reaching a new high before falling back. The market's bullish sentiment cooled down, and profit - taking occurred. Short - term gold is overbought, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline. [14] - **Investment Advice**: Gold prices will enter a volatile phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline. [15] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - USD Index) - **News**: The Bank of Japan's governor did not disclose whether to raise interest rates before the October policy meeting. The ECB's Lagarde advocated a unified approach to Russian assets. Trump urged Zelensky to accept a cease - fire. [16][17] - **Comment**: Trump pressured Ukraine to end the conflict, but a cease - fire along the current front line faces significant resistance. The USD is expected to be volatile in the short term. [18] - **Investment Advice**: The USD is expected to be volatile in the short term. [19] 1.3 Macro Strategy (U.S. Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Trump signed an executive order to impose tariffs on imported trucks, and Fed's Musalem supported a rate cut in October. [20][21] - **Comment**: With the start of the earnings season, the profit forecast of U.S. stocks has been revised upwards, and the risk of regional banks has not further spread. The Sino - U.S. negotiation situation has improved marginally, which is positive for risk assets. U.S. stocks may continue to recover their previous losses next week. [21] - **Investment Advice**: It is expected that market risk preference will continue to improve, but volatility remains high. A bullish approach should be taken, and buying on dips is recommended. [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Vice - Premier He Lifeng held a video call with U.S. officials, and the Ministry of Finance announced measures to consolidate economic recovery. [22][23] - **Comment**: Tariff escalation has a long - tail effect. Next week, attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - U.S. negotiations and the Fourth Plenary Session. Stock indices are in a high - level volatile pattern. [24][25] - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices. [25] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit, and the central bank conducted 164.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases. [26][27] - **Comment**: The bond market has strengthened as expected, but risks exist. It is recommended to realize the floating profits of some unilateral trading positions next week. [27] - **Investment Advice**: A cautious approach is recommended for short - term trading. [29] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - **News**: The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 42nd week was 2.1662 million tons, and the expected volume in the 43rd week is 2.3335 million tons. [30] - **Comment**: The palm oil market lacks a clear driver, and the soybean oil market lacks data and policy guidance and continues to fluctuate. [30] - **Investment Advice**: For palm oil, pay attention to production, inventory, and replenishment in India. A long - allocation approach is recommended. Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate, and rapeseed oil is recommended to be observed. [30][31] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - **News**: The Philippines suspended sugar imports until the end of the 2025/26 season. China's cumulative sugar imports in the 2024/25 season were 4.63 million tons. The number of sugar - carrying ships in Brazilian ports increased to 90. Brazilian sugar production in the second half of September was 3.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%. [32][33][34][35] - **Comment**: Brazilian sugar production is strong, but the sugar - making ratio has declined for three consecutive weeks, indicating that sugar mills are more willing to produce ethanol. ICE raw sugar is not expected to continue to decline significantly. [36] - **Investment Advice**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and excessive short - selling is not recommended. [37] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - **News**: The cumulative public inspection of Xinjiang cotton was 560,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 124%. India's cotton production and imports were adjusted. Cotton prices stabilized, and the downstream market was weak. [38][39][40] - **Comment**: The purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton is stable, which supports Zhengzhou cotton. However, the pressure of hedging and weak downstream demand limit the upside. [41] - **Investment Advice**: The upside of Zhengzhou cotton is limited, and it is under pressure in the short term. [42] 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - **News**: China's shipbuilding indicators ranked first globally in the first three quarters. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4095 million tons. [44][45] - **Comment**: The inventory of five major steel products has declined, but the absolute inventory is still high. The demand for building materials is weak, and the supply pressure of finished steel exists. Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak. [45] - **Investment Advice**: A volatile approach is recommended for steel prices in the short term. [46] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - **News**: The soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills is expected to increase. [47] - **Comment**: The U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of data. The domestic supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, and the inventory of soybean meal is high. [47] - **Investment Advice**: The price of soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile. [47] 2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - **News**: The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is stable. [48][49] - **Comment**: The production of coking coal is normal, and the demand for replenishment exists. The price of coking coal is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed. [49] - **Investment Advice**: The price of coking coal is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed. [50] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - **News**: The operating rate of starch sugar products has increased slightly after the holiday. [51] - **Comment**: The theoretical profit of starch enterprises has improved, and the operating rate has increased, and the inventory has accumulated seasonally. The price difference between rice and flour may be repaired when approaching delivery. [51] - **Investment Advice**: The price difference between rice and flour may be repaired when approaching delivery. [51] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - **News**: The price of red dates in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market fluctuated slightly. [52] - **Comment**: The futures price of red dates rose, and the supply is about to enter the harvesting period, while the demand is weak. [53][54] - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to wait and see before the red dates are harvested and priced. [54] 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - **News**: The inventory of major corn processing enterprises increased by 5.48%. [55] - **Comment**: The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has entered the seasonal increase stage. The spot price is expected to be weak and volatile, and the futures price is expected to follow the decline. [55] - **Investment Advice**: The 11 - contract is expected to decline, and the 01 - contract should be approached with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish strategy. [55] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: Codelco raised the copper premium in Europe in 2026 to a record high. Zijin Mining's net profit in the third quarter increased by 52.25% year - on - year. [56][57] - **Comment**: The market will focus on Sino - U.S. trade negotiations and U.S. inflation data. The macro factors may cause short - term fluctuations in copper prices. The domestic and LME inventories show different trends. The price of copper is expected to be volatile. [57][58] - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips for mid - term long positions. Arbitrage should be observed. [58] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - **News**: Hebei plans to adjust the time - of - use electricity price. The price of polysilicon products is stable, and the demand is weakening at the end of October. [59][60][61] - **Comment**: The price of polysilicon is expected to be flat. Although there are many negative factors in the fundamentals, the upstream has no obvious inventory pressure, and production restrictions and sales restrictions are still being implemented. [61] - **Investment Advice**: It is expected that the spot price will remain flat in October. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and attention should be paid to buying on dips when the price is at a discount to the spot. [62] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - **News**: The operating rate of silicon enterprises in Xinjiang has increased, while that in the south has decreased. The social inventory has increased. [63][64] - **Comment**: The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is under pressure. However, the price needs to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to increase supply significantly. Buying on dips is more cost - effective. [64] - **Investment Advice**: Buying on dips is more cost - effective. [64] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: The LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $44.99/ton on October 16. [65] - **Comment**: The prices of domestic and LME lead showed different trends last week. The supply of primary and secondary lead is expected to recover. The inventory of lead ingots has increased, but the short - term supply - demand mismatch may continue. The internal - external price ratio is expected to return. [65] - **Investment Advice**: Unilateral trading should be observed with a volatile perspective, and mid - term positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets can be considered. [66] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $137.2/ton on October 16. Bolivia's zinc concentrate production decreased in 2025, while Peru's increased in August. [67][68] - **Comment**: The high premium of LME zinc has stimulated a small amount of overseas warehousing, and the zinc ingot export window has opened briefly. The global low - inventory situation is difficult to improve. The price of Shanghai zinc is expected to be volatile, and the price difference may turn positive. [68] - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to mid - term positive spreads for arbitrage. Positive - spread positions should be closed in batches on dips. [68] 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, reached the standard. [69] - **Comment**: The inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased, which supports the price. The price may be supported by the de - stocking in the peak season, but further upward momentum depends on supply disruptions. [69] - **Investment Advice**: Short - term trading should be range - bound, and mid - term short - selling opportunities should be considered after the peak demand season. [70] 2

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market risk preference may be suppressed in the short - term due to Trump's statement on tariff hikes, causing A - shares to decline, but the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound, with an upward long - term trend [3]. - The bond market warms up due to stock market adjustments and loose liquidity, and short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3]. - Gold has large market fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October, and silver maintains a strong trend [3]. - Steel products' hot - rolled coils have accumulated inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery; the iron ore market has weakened [3]. - The price of crude oil is under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report; most chemical products have weak supply - demand expectations [3]. - Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and palm oil are affected by various factors and show different trends, with some under pressure and some in a weak pattern [3]. - Special commodities like soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation; industrial silicon prices are weakly fluctuating [3]. - New energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different trends, with polysilicon having a late - session rebound and lithium carbonate having a tight - balance fundamental situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Index Futures - The stock index rises and then falls, with a style switch on the market. Due to the tariff conflict, the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound in the short - term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Conservative investors can wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at low prices [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market adjustment and loose liquidity promote the bond market to warm up. Short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. For example, T2512 may fluctuate between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. One can choose to buy lightly above 910 yuan and set stop - loss and take - profit. Silver maintains a strong trend above 50 dollars [3]. Shipping Index (European Line) - From the perspective of macro - uncertainty factors, it is recommended to be cautious and wait and see [3]. Black Steel - Hot - rolled coils have accumulated a lot of inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery. The profit of the coil - screw spread converges [3]. Iron Ore - Supply - side disturbances weaken, shipments decline, arrivals increase, and the iron ore market weakens. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, with a reference range of 750 - 830 [3]. Coking Coal - After the holiday, coal prices in coal - producing areas are weak, downstream replenishment demand weakens, and there are concerns about reduced Mongolian coal supply. It is recommended to go long on JM2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1080 - 1200 [3]. Coke - The first round of price increases was implemented before the holiday, and there is not much room for further increases. It is recommended to go long on J2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700 [3]. Non - ferrous - Copper prices fluctuate, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices. Aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. all have corresponding price reference ranges and operation suggestions [3]. - Tin can be bought when the macro - sentiment drops. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report suppress oil prices. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on the single side, with support levels for different benchmarks provided [3]. Chemical Products - Most chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. have weak supply - demand expectations, and corresponding operation suggestions such as short - selling on rebounds and month - spread reverse arbitrage are given [3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and dates are affected by various factors and show different trends and price ranges, with corresponding operation suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - Soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation, and it is recommended to hold short positions. Rubber can be observed during the peak - production period, and industrial silicon prices fluctuate within a range [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon rebounds in the late session, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Lithium carbonate has a tight - balance fundamental situation, with a price - center reference range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trade friction disturbs the stock index, which opens lower but is expected to rebound after the initial decline, with the long - term upward trend remaining unchanged. The bond market influence is complex, and the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased allocation value when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. Different commodities have different trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Affected by trade friction, the stock index opens lower. It is recommended to sell put options near MO2512 - P - 7000 to collect premiums [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the spot bond interest rate rises. The T2512 oscillation range may be between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is advisable to wait for oversold opportunities [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Due to the continuous fermentation of Sino - US trade friction concerns, precious metals reach new highs. It is recommended to buy gold at a light position above 910 yuan and maintain a long - silver strategy above 50 dollars [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Given macro uncertainties, it is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Affected by Sino - US friction, steel prices are weakly sorted. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances weaken, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - **Coking Coal**: After the festival, coking coal prices have a phased correction. It is recommended to go short on coking coal 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented before the festival, and there is limited room for further increases. It is recommended to go short on coke 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: With the easing of tariff concerns, copper prices are strongly running. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [3]. - **Alumina**: The market supply is sufficient, and the spot price continues to fall. The main operation range is 2850 - 3050 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment boosts the price center to around 21000, and the main reference range is 20700 - 21300 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum quotation is firm, and the finished ingot price rises with the aluminum price. The main reference range is 20200 - 20800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have limited support for prices, and zinc prices oscillate. The main reference range is 21500 - 22500 [3]. - **Tin**: With the repair of the macro - sentiment, tin prices rise slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectations are volatile, and the main reference range is 120000 - 126000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - risk increases, and the industrial demand is still insufficient. The main reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The macro - sentiment repair promotes the oil price rebound, but the loose fundamentals suppress the oil price. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis [3]. - **Urea**: The market trading sentiment improves, but the short - term rebound lacks fundamental support. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and reduce the implied volatility at high prices on the option side [3]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the oil price support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on PX11 and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on TA and pay attention to the support near 4500, and conduct rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and there is short - term support. It is recommended to increase the spread at low positions, but the driving force is limited [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, but the cost side is weak, and the short - term processing fee improves. The trading suggestions are the same as those for PTA, and the main processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol**: The port inventory accumulates, and the supply - demand structure of MEG in the far - month is weak. It is recommended to short - sell EG01 at high prices, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 at high prices [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the short - term downstream demand for alumina is average. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **PVC**: The spot procurement enthusiasm is average, and the disk continues to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price driving force is limited. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate following benzene ethylene and the oil price in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the benzene ethylene price may be under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell on the rebound of EB11 and increase the spread at the low level of the EB - BZ spread [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support weakens, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to hold the seller of the call option BR2511 - C - 11400 [3]. - **LLDPE**: The disk price drops, and the arbitrage transaction is average. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The PDH profit is significantly repaired, and the transaction improves. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens significantly, and the transaction is acceptable. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Soybean and Related Products**: Affected by the changing Sino - US trade expectations, the supply pressure suppresses domestic prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of 01 near 2900 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The slaughter pressure of the breeding end is large, and the pig price remains low, showing a weak oscillating trend [3]. - **Corn**: As the supply increases, the disk price is under pressure and runs weakly [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by the fundamentals, palm oil stops falling and recovers. The main short - term oscillation range may be between 9000 - 9500 [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad, and the raw sugar price drops sharply. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the short term [3]. - **Cotton**: With the new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **Egg**: After the festival, the demand weakens, and it maintains a short - bias trend. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2511 contract at low prices and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The redness of late - Fuji apples is relatively light, and the high - quality apples have a significant price advantage. The main price runs near 8600 [3]. - **Jujube**: As the harvest time approaches, the long - short game intensifies, and it is bearish in the long - term [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the soda ash price runs weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on the rebound [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The production and sales performance is average, and the logic of the off - peak season in the peak season continues. It is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to pay attention to the raw material price increase situation during the peak production season and wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply increases, and with cost support, the price oscillates between 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The supply increases, and polysilicon is under pressure. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices when the price returns to the lower edge of the range, and pay attention to the implementation of capacity storage [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is weak, the fundamentals maintain a tight balance, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 7 - 7.5 million [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. The market trends of each commodity are analyzed based on factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and trade policies. The report suggests corresponding trading strategies for each commodity, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro influences increase, and the volatility of meal products widens. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices decline. South American soybean exports to China offset the decrease in US soybean exports. It is recommended to short the soybean meal 05 contract at high points, hold long positions in rapeseed meal, and conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: Typhoon weather is favorable for the market. ICE and London sugar prices decline. Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic sugar market is affected by the typhoon. It is expected that the international sugar price will fluctuate within a range, and the domestic sugar price will also show a short - term oscillatory trend [17][18][20]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Sino - US tariffs resurface, and the market maintains a short - term oscillatory trend. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increases in September, and domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory. It is recommended to wait and see first and consider lightly going long on dips [21][22][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: New grain is concentrated on the market, and the price oscillates at the bottom. The US corn price is weak, and domestic new - crop corn is abundant. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month corn contract on dips, and gradually establish long - term long positions in the 05 and 07 corn contracts [24][25][27]. - **Hogs**: The pressure of slaughter continues to be reflected, and the spot price continues to decline. Hog prices fall in various regions, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is recommended to short at high points and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [27][28][29]. - **Peanuts**: Harvest is affected by rainfall, and peanuts are short - term bullish. The average price of peanuts declines slightly, and the inventory of peanut oil manufacturers changes. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 peanut contracts lightly [30][31][32]. - **Eggs**: Oscillate weakly. Egg prices decline, and the inventory of laying hens is high. It is recommended to short near - month contracts at high points [33][34][36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate slightly bullishly. Apple inventory decreases, and new - crop apples are affected by rainfall. It is expected that the price will oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [37][38][42]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate slightly bearishly. ICE cotton prices decline. The Sino - US trade war affects cotton consumption. It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton price will oscillate slightly bearishly [43][44][46]. Black Metals - **Steel**: US tariff increases put slight pressure on steel prices. The black sector oscillates weakly, and steel inventories accumulate. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend and go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar at low points [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Long positions can be lightly established on dips. The market may be affected by macro - market sentiment, but the impact is expected to be small. It is recommended to go long on dips [50][51][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach at high levels. Global iron ore shipments increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge at high levels in the spot market and conduct reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [53][54][56]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is not high, and short positions can be reduced during macro - shocks. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable to weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions during macro - shocks [56][57][58]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trade disputes resurface, and they are driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Gold and silver prices rise, and the US dollar index and bond yields decline. It is recommended to go long at low points [59][60][62]. - **Copper**: Tariffs cause a short - term setback in copper prices, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Copper prices decline, and the supply is tight while consumption is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [64][65][67]. - **Alumina**: The weak trend due to supply - demand surplus remains unchanged. The price of alumina declines, and the supply exceeds demand. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating and bottom - grinding trend [69][70][71]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Weakens with the increase in tariff policies, but the scrap aluminum price may be relatively firm. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy declines. The impact of tariffs is expected to be less severe than in April. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent policies [74][75]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The short - term volatility increases due to panic sentiment, and the medium - term bullish trend remains unchanged. The price of electrolytic aluminum declines. The impact of tariffs is limited, and the medium - term price may strengthen [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: There is obvious support below, and the zinc price may rebound. The domestic zinc price is under pressure, and the overseas price is strong. It is recommended to close out profitable short positions and go short again at high points [79][80][82]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both weak, and be wary of the lead price falling after rising. The lead price rises, and the supply may increase in the second half of October. It is recommended to be cautious as the price may fall after rising [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: Volatility increases, and the price center moves down. The LME nickel price declines, and the inventory increases. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to decline [88][89][91]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillates downward. The stainless steel inventory increases, and the price is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93][95]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: Go long at the lower end of the range. Some silicon plants experience production disruptions, and the demand is strong in the short term. It is recommended to go long near the low point of the September disk [95][96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - side expectations are intertwined with weak reality. The US government cancels some energy projects. The polysilicon market is affected by production increases and potential cuts [97][98].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].