1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies dominated by sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different energy - chemical option varieties have different performance in terms of latest price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2509) is 528, with a price increase of 13 and a change rate of 2.49% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators are used to describe the strength of option underlying asset market conditions and turning points. For instance, the open interest PCR of crude oil is 0.56, with a change of 0.07 [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels of option underlying assets can be observed from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 640, and the support level is 500 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility includes at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 30.8, and the weighted implied volatility is 34.57 with a change of - 0.35 [7]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options (Crude Oil, LPG) - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally, UAE port transfers are rising, but Russian shipments are tight. The market is short - term bearish. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy [8]. - **LPG**: Fundamentally, the supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The market is short - term bearish. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy [10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options (Methanol, Ethylene Glycol) - **Methanol**: Fundamentally, port and enterprise inventories are decreasing. The market is weak with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Fundamentally, polyester load is rising. The market is weakly bullish with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy [11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options (Polypropylene, PVC, etc.) - **Polypropylene**: Fundamentally, PE and PP inventories have different trends. The market is weakly bearish with pressure. Option strategies include a long collar strategy [11]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options (Rubber, Synthetic Rubber) - **Rubber**: Fundamentally, social inventories are decreasing. The market is in a low - level consolidation. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options (PX, PTA, etc.) - **PTA**: Fundamentally, the overall social inventory is increasing. The market is weakly bearish with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [13]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda, Soda Ash) - **Caustic Soda**: Fundamentally, factory inventories are increasing. The market is in a high - level shock with pressure. Option strategies include a long collar strategy [14]. - **Soda Ash**: Fundamentally, inventories are accumulating at a high level. The market is in a significant decline with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy [14]. 3.5.7 Urea Options - Fundamentally, port inventories are increasing slightly, and enterprise inventories are decreasing. The market is in a shock under bearish pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, affected by macro - sentiment and terminal restocking, but downstream PTA maintenance and weak terminal demand limit its drive. Follow macro - sentiment and oil prices, be cautious and bearish on PX09, and expand PX - SC spread at low levels [2]. - PTA: Load is around 80%, 8 - month maintenance increases, and short - term drive is limited. Be bearish on TA above 4900, conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage, and expand PTA processing margin at low levels [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply turns loose in August, but affected by macro factors. EG99 is on the sidelines, and 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage is the main strategy [2]. - Short - fiber: Short - term supply - demand is weak, follow raw materials. Unilateral strategy is the same as TA, and PF processing margin fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip: Supply is high, demand is average, and processing margin has limited upside. PR is the same as PTA, and pay attention to expanding the processing margin at the lower end of the 350 - 600 range [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to geopolitical uncertainties and better - than - expected demand data. Short - term trading focuses on geopolitical risks, and the market fluctuates along the upper edge of the range. Use short - term band strategies, and capture volatility opportunities in options [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Third - quarter supply - demand improves slightly, but new device production limits de - stocking. Follow market sentiment, and BZ2603 follows oil prices and styrene [13]. - Styrene: Supply - demand is weak, port inventory increases, and basis weakens. EB09 is rolling bearish [13]. Methanol Industry - Supply is high, port inventory may increase in August, downstream demand is weak, and MTO profit is low. Expand MTO09 profit at low levels [29]. Polyolefin Industry - In August, supply pressure increases for PP and PE, demand has potential restocking conditions, and overall valuation is moderately high. PP is bearish unilaterally (7200 - 7300), and hold LP01 [32]. Urea Industry - The disk rebounds slightly, but the core contradiction remains. Supply is high, export policies limit demand, and inventory pressure increases. Pay attention to autumn fertilizer progress and device restart [34]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The disk is strong, and the spot is stable. Supply increases and inventory may rise. The price is expected to be stable, and pay attention to risk avoidance [37][40]. - PVC: The disk sentiment recovers. Supply may increase, domestic demand is weak, and export expectations are good. The supply exceeds demand, and be cautious in the short - term [37][40] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: On July 29, most polyester product prices and cash flows changed slightly. For example, Brent crude (September) rose to $72.51/barrel, and POY150/48 cash flow was - 24 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: MEG port inventory decreased slightly, and PTA device maintenance increased in August. Terminal demand showed signs of restocking but was still weak [2]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of polyester - related industries changed slightly, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 30, Brent rose to $72.51/barrel, and WTI slightly decreased. Spreads such as Brent - WTI changed [7]. - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical risks and demand data drove oil prices, while OPEC+ production increase limited long - term gains [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, pure benzene and styrene prices changed slightly, and related spreads also changed [12]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory decreased slightly, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, methanol futures prices rose, and basis and spreads changed [29]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased, and upstream and downstream operating rates changed [29]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, polyolefin futures and spot prices changed slightly, and basis and spreads changed [32]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, supply pressure increased, and demand had potential restocking conditions [32]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, urea prices in different regions changed slightly, and spreads also changed [34]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply was high, device maintenance decreased, and export demand was restricted [34]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, caustic soda and PVC prices changed, and spreads and basis changed [37]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and downstream demand operating rates changed, and inventory also changed [37][38][39][40]

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 7月29日 | 7月28日 | 单位 | 品种 | 7月29日 | 7月28日 | 涨跌 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 旅跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 布伦特原油(9月) | 72.51 | 70.04 | 2.47 | 3.5% | POY150/48价格 | 6720 | 6715 | ટ | 0.1% | 美元/桶 | 5 | 3.7% | FDY150/96价格 | WTI原油(9月) | 66.71 | 2.50 | 7015 | 7010 | 0.1% | 69.21 | | | 0 | 1.7% | DTY150/48价格 | 7910 | CFR日本石脑油 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid - August will limit its upside. The short - term target price for WTI is $70.4 per barrel, suggesting short - term long positions with profit - taking on dips and left - hand side trading for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions [2]. - For methanol, the upstream production is bottoming out and rising, and the supply pressure will gradually increase. The demand side shows a decline in MTO profits, and the market may shift to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, facing callback pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Regarding urea, the domestic production continues to decline, and the cost - side support is gradually strengthening. The demand is weak, but exports are an important demand increment. The overall supply - demand is weak, and it is advisable to focus on long positions on dips [5]. - For rubber, after a significant correction, NR and RU are slightly fluctuating. The cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a long - short spread operation between RU2601 and RU2509 [7]. - For PVC, the supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. Although it is currently strong due to supply reduction expectations and the rebound of the black building materials sector, there is a risk of a significant decline when the sentiment fades [9]. - For styrene, the short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards following the cost side. The market is affected by macro - sentiment and cost - side support, with different views from bulls and bears [11][13]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate upwards following the cost side. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season, macro - expectations will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in July [16]. - For PX, the load remains high, and the downstream PTA maintenance season is over. With low inventory and improved polyester and terminal operations, there is a short - term opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [18][19]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate, but the negative feedback pressure is small. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the overseas and domestic maintenance devices are starting, and the downstream production has recovered but remains at a low level. The port inventory reduction will gradually slow down, and the valuation may decline in the short term although it is currently strong due to anti - involution sentiment [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $2.27, or 3.39%, to $69.25; Brent main crude oil futures rose $2.36, or 3.35%, to $72.76; INE main crude oil futures rose 4 yuan, or 0.76%, to 531 yuan [2]. - **Inventory Data**: In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.44 million barrels to 6.87 million barrels, a 17.29% month - on - month decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.26 million barrels to 2.45 million barrels, an 11.98% month - on - month increase [2]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On July 29, the 09 contract rose 30 yuan/ton to 2434 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 6 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream production is bottoming out and rising, and the demand side shows a decline in MTO profits and a continuation of the off - season for traditional demand [3]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On July 29, the 09 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 1744 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 16 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production continues to decline, the cost - side support is strengthening, the demand for compound fertilizers is slowly recovering, and exports are an important demand increment [5]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: NR and RU slightly fluctuated after a significant correction [7]. - **Supply Concerns**: The cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The PVC09 contract rose 43 yuan to 5192 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5020 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 172 (- 103) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 124 (+ 4) yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall production rate is 76.8%, a 0.8% month - on - month decrease; the downstream production rate is 41.9%, and the factory inventory is 35.7 (- 1) tons, while the social inventory is 68.3 (+ 2.6) tons [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and cost - side support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period. The supply side shows an increase in production, and the demand side shows an increase in the overall operating rate of three S products [11][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Performance**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7385 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase, the spot price was 7340 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 45 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan weakening [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream production rate is 80.31%, a 0.05% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.64 tons to 50.29 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.22 tons to 5.98 tons. The downstream average production rate is 38.42%, a 0.09% month - on - month decrease [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Performance**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7160 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan increase, the spot price was 7165 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 5 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan weakening [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream production rate is 78.44%, a 1.11% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 1.48 tons to 58.06 tons, the trader inventory increased by 1.43 tons to 16.66 tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.41 tons to 6.72 tons. The downstream average production rate is 48.45%, a 0.07% month - on - month decrease [16]. PX - **Market Performance**: The PX09 contract rose 52 yuan to 6942 yuan, the PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 857 dollars, the basis was 122 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 108 (+ 18) yuan [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The Chinese load is 79.9%, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease; the Asian load is 72.9%, a 0.7% month - on - month decrease. There are changes in domestic and overseas device operations, and the PTA load is 79.7%, unchanged [18]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The PTA09 contract rose 26 yuan to 4838 yuan, the East China spot price rose 30 yuan to 4830 yuan, the basis was - 5 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 6 (+ 4) yuan [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load is 79.7%, unchanged. The downstream load is 88.7%, a 0.4% month - on - month increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on July 18 was 218.9 tons, a 1.7 - ton increase [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG09 contract rose 31 yuan to 4467 yuan, the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4510 yuan, the basis was 62 (+ 4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 25 (+ 3) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side production rate is 68.4%, a 2.2% month - on - month increase. The downstream load is 88.7%, a 0.4% month - on - month increase. The port inventory is 52.1 tons, a 1.2 - ton decrease [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, option strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Option strategy reports are compiled for each option variety based on underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9]. - Strategies focus on constructing option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various energy - chemical futures contracts show different price movements, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2509) is 516, up 10 with a 2.06% increase; the trading volume is 11.77 million lots, a decrease of 3.49 million lots, and the open interest is 3.78 million lots, a decrease of 0.22 million lots [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open interest PCR values and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.54, an increase of 0.06, and the open - interest PCR is 0.50, a decrease of 0.03 [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of option underlyings are determined. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 640, and the support level is 500 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Different option varieties have different implied volatility values, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 29.605%, and the weighted implied volatility is 34.92%, a decrease of 0.30% [7]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation shows that the UAE port transfer increase implies Iran's return to global supply, while Russia's shipments remain tight. The market is short - term weak. Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, and the open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates increasing short - side strength. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG**: The fundamental situation is that the supply is abundant, and the market is short - term bearish. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high historical level, and the open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates strong short - side strength. Strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: The port and enterprise inventories are decreasing, and the market is weak with pressure. Implied volatility first rises to a high level and then falls, and the open - interest PCR below 0.80 indicates a weak - oscillating market. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The polyester load is rising, and the market is weakly bullish with pressure. Implied volatility fluctuates above the historical mean, and the open - interest PCR around 0.90 indicates an oscillating market. Strategies include constructing a volatility - selling strategy for time - value gain, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: The inventory situation shows mixed trends, and the market is weak with short - side pressure. Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, and the open - interest PCR below 0.80 indicates a weakening market. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: The social inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a low - level consolidation. Implied volatility rapidly rises to a high historical level, and the open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates short - side strength. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination for volatility [12]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: The inventory is increasing, and the market is weak with pressure. Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high mean level, and the open - interest PCR below 0.80 indicates a weakening market. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination for volatility [13]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory is increasing, and the market is falling back with pressure. Implied volatility first rises rapidly and then drops significantly, remaining at a high level. The open - interest PCR below 0.80 indicates a weakening market. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is at a high level and increasing, and the market is falling back with pressure. Implied volatility first rises rapidly and then drops significantly, remaining at a high level. The open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates strong short - side pressure. Strategies include constructing a volatility - selling combination for volatility gain, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. 3.5.7 Urea Options - The port inventory is increasing slightly, and the enterprise inventory is decreasing with a slowing slope. The market oscillates under short - side pressure. Implied volatility fluctuates slightly below the historical mean, and the open - interest PCR below 0.80 indicates a weakening market. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures market has shown relative weakness amidst overall industrial price increases, with a significant price drop observed as market sentiment cooled down [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Methanol futures prices fell sharply, with a nearly 4% drop on July 28 and a further decline of 0.33% recently [1]. - Analysts indicate that the weak performance of methanol futures is due to a lack of strong upward drivers in its fundamentals, despite macroeconomic bullish sentiment [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current methanol fundamentals exhibit three high characteristics: high supply elasticity, weak demand, and high inventory levels, with port inventories up 22% year-on-year [2]. - Domestic production remains high, and there is an expectation of increased imports, particularly from Iran, which may reach 381,700 tons by the end of July [2]. - The demand side is challenged by traditional downstream sectors facing losses, with methanol production rates for formaldehyde at only 27.96% and low operating rates for MTO facilities [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The methanol market is expected to experience short-term weakness and mid-term rebound, influenced by supply-demand structure, inventory changes, and external macro variables [3]. - Analysts suggest monitoring the pace of imports and the recovery of downstream ethylene facilities as key indicators for future price movements [3]. - The current situation shows that over 60% of downstream enterprises are in a loss-making state, which could impact future demand [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The recent methanol price fluctuations are mainly driven by macro factors rather than industry fundamentals, with intensified speculative sentiment. It is recommended to wait for the implementation of macro - policies. From an industrial perspective, methanol is not suitable for upward trading, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. 3.2 Methanol Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short methanol futures (MA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 2250 - 2350. They can also buy put options (MA2509P2) with a 50% ratio at 15 - 20 and sell call options (MA2509C2) at 45 - 60 to lock in profits and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy methanol futures (MA2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2200 - 2350. They can sell put options (MA2509P2) with a 75% ratio at 20 - 25 to reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The recent methanol price fluctuations are not industry - led, exceeding fundamental analysis, with intensified speculative sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, Iranian shipments are accelerating, with 610,000 tons shipped so far and an import forecast of around 1.25 million tons for July - August. Methanol coal - to - methanol profits remain high. The profit of methanol downstream is further compressed. It is not advisable to go long on methanol from an industrial perspective, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Negative Factors - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient. It is expected that the port methanol inventory will increase [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting buying on dips and taking profits, and making left - hand bets on the September Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - related supply disruptions when oil prices drop significantly [3]. - Methanol is affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment and may face price correction pressure. The upstream supply pressure is expected to increase, while the demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at high prices [5]. - Urea's price is affected by sentiment. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. It is advisable to pay attention to long positions at low prices [7]. - For rubber, due to the peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia, the supply concern sentiment may decline. The price has a large correction. It is recommended to wait and see for the short - term and consider a long - short band operation for different contracts [9][11]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. Although it is strong in the short - term, there is a risk of a significant decline [11]. - The price of styrene is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term as the BZN spread is expected to be repaired [13]. - The price of polyethylene may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - The price of polypropylene is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. - PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. - PTA may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. - The fundamental situation of ethylene glycol is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $1.91, or 2.94%, to $66.98; Brent main crude oil futures rose $2.01, or 2.94%, to $70.4; INE main crude oil futures fell 2.40 yuan, or 0.45%, to 527 yuan [2]. - **Data**: In China, weekly crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.96 million barrels to 91.93 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.29 million barrels to 102.07 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.26 million barrels to 194.00 million barrels [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 115 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 91 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7 [5]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment, the price may decline. The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 65 yuan/ton to 1738 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 32 [7]. - **Analysis**: Affected by sentiment, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU had a large correction [9]. - **Analysis**: The peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns. The price has a large decline, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 224 yuan to 5149 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5100 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 49 (+ 164) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 128 (- 15) yuan/ton [11]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. There is a risk of a significant decline [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened [12][13]. - **Analysis**: The BZN spread is expected to be repaired, and the price is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [16]. - **Analysis**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 172 yuan to 6890 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 23 dollars to 851 dollars [18]. - **Analysis**: It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 124 yuan to 4812 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 95 yuan to 4800 yuan [20]. - **Analysis**: It may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 109 yuan to 4436 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 83 yuan to 4499 yuan [21]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report Core Views - The pure benzene market has limited self - driving factors due to high port inventory and poor price transmission to downstream sectors, and its short - term trend fluctuates with the overall market sentiment. The styrene market also has a weak supply - demand outlook and increasing port inventory, with limited rebound space under the influence of market sentiment [24]. - The PX market is supported by domestic macro - sentiment and terminal restocking, but considering cost and inventory factors, short - term short - selling strategies can be considered. The PTA market may see short - term improvement but has a weak medium - term outlook. The ethylene glycol market is expected to be near balance in August [28][29]. - The methanol market has a strong inventory build - up expectation in August, and with low MTO profits and weak downstream demand, but the short - term influence of the macro - environment is significant, and MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [32]. - The caustic soda market may see stable prices in the short - term, and the PVC market has a supply - exceeding - demand situation, but both are strongly influenced by macro - sentiment [42]. - The polyolefin market is currently strengthened by policies and cost factors, but the real supply - demand situation is weak. In August, there is an increased inventory build - up pressure, and the PP can be considered for short - selling [46]. - The crude oil market is in a range - bound state due to the balance between supply - expansion expectations and macro - sentiment. Short - term trading can follow a band - trading strategy [49]. - The urea market is in a supply - exceeding - demand situation, with the futures market under pressure. It will remain in a range - bound state until there is a substantial improvement in demand [54]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Brent crude (September) was at $68.44/barrel, down $0.74 (-1.1%) from July 24; WTI crude (September) was at $65.16/barrel, down $0.87 (-1.3%); CFR Japan naphtha rose $5 (0.9%) to $581/ton; CFR China pure benzene increased $14 (1.9%) to $765/ton [21]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, styrene East - China spot was at 7580 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan (1.7%) from July 24; EB futures 2508 was at 7403 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan (1.0%); EB cash - flow (non - integrated) increased 34 yuan (19.0%) to 215 yuan/ton [22]. - **Downstream Cash - flows**: On July 25, phenol cash - flow was - 709 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan (8.4%) from July 24; aniline cash - flow decreased 104 yuan (-517.1%) to 84 yuan/ton [23]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 21, pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 17.10 million tons, up 0.70 million tons (4.3%) from July 14; the domestic pure benzene utilization rate was 76.6%, down 1.5% (-1.9%) from July 17 [24]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Brent crude (September) was at $68.44/barrel, down $0.74 (-1.1%) from July 24; CFR Japan naphtha rose $5 (0.9%) to $581/ton; CFR China PX increased $18 (2.1%) to $874/ton [28]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, PTA East - China spot price was 4895 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (1.7%) from July 24; TA futures 2509 was at 4936 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan (1.8%); PTA spot processing fee decreased 19 yuan (-9.5%) to 183 yuan/ton [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, MEG East - China spot price was 4582 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan (1.1%) from July 24; EG futures 2509 was at 4545 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (1.3%); MEG import profit increased 7 yuan (-9.6%) to - 60 yuan/ton [28]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, MA2601 closed at 2587 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan (2.01%) from July 22; the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 438 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (2.94%) [32]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, methanol enterprise inventory was 33.983%, down 1.3% (-3.55%) from the previous value; the upstream domestic enterprise utilization rate was 70.37%, down 2.3% (-3.16%) from the previous value [32]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's converted - to - 100% price was 2593.8 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 24; East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 5160 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan (1.4%) [36]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of July 18, the caustic soda industry utilization rate was 86.3%, up 1.1% (1.3%) from July 11; the PVC total utilization rate was 75.0%, down 0.1% (-0.1%) [39]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, liquid caustic soda's East - China factory inventory was 21.3, up 2.6 (13.8%) from July 10; PVC's total social inventory was 41.1 million tons, up 1.8 million tons (4.7%) [42]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, L2601 closed at 7504 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan (0.91%) from July 24; the price of East - China LDPE was 9475 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.26%) [46]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, PE enterprise inventory was 49.3, up 5.47 (12.48%) from the previous value; the PE device utilization rate was 77.8%, down 1.67% (-2.10%) from the previous value [46]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 28, Brent was at $68.25/barrel, up $0.02 (0.16%) from July 25; WTI was at $65.25/barrel, up $0.09 (0.14%); the Brent - WTI spread was $3.30, up $0.02 (0.61%) [49]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: On July 28, NYM RBOB was 209.73 cents/gallon, up 0.03 cents (0.01%) from July 25; ICE Gasoil was $705.00/ton, down $10.25 (-1.43%) [49]. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spreads**: On July 28, the US gasoline cracking spread was $22.84/barrel, down $1.01 (-4.23%) from July 25; the European diesel cracking spread was $29.73/barrel, down $3.17 (-9.64%) [49]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, the 01 contract of urea futures closed at 1807, up 11 (0.61%) from July 24; the spread between the 01 contract and the 05 contract was - 15, down 7 (-87.50%) [53]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, the domestic urea daily output was 19.27, up 0.24 (1.26%) from July 24; the domestic urea plant - level inventory was 85.88, down 3.67 (-4.10%) from the previous week's value [53][55].