投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 12 月 18 日 橡胶甲醇原油 偏多氛围提振 能化偏强运行 核心观点 橡胶：本周四国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心略微上移至 15320 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.29%至 15320 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度升阔至 15 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价维持区间内震荡。 宝城期货金融研究所 甲醇：本周四国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现缩量减 ...

| 聚烯烃产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月18日 | | | | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | | 品种 | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 活的关 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | L2601收盘价 | 6439 | 6516 | -77 | -1.18% | 元/吨 | | L2605 收盘价 | 6479 | 6543 | -64 | -0.98% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6196 | 6192 | 4 | 0.06% | | | PP2605 收盘价 | 6254 | 6256 | -2 | -0.03% | | | L15价差 | -40 | -27 | -13 | -48.15% | | | PP15价差 | -58 | -64 | 6 | 9.38% | | | LP01价差 | 243 | 324 | -81 | -25.00% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6120 | 6110 | 10 | 0.16% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to close short positions on a phased basis. Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are continuously disturbing the market, and the oil price will continue to oscillate. Different chemical products show different trends due to factors such as raw material supply, device status, and market demand [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are continuously disturbing, and the oil price continues to oscillate. The EIA data shows a seasonal pattern of crude oil inventory reduction and gasoline and diesel inventory accumulation in the US last week. Geopolitical factors dominate short - term fluctuations [8]. - **Asphalt**: Anticipated disruptions in raw material supply cause a sharp rise in asphalt futures prices. If there is a substantial supply cut, the asphalt futures price will be strong; otherwise, it may rise and then fall. The asphalt market has weak supply and demand, and the demand is in the off - season [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil is driven up by the escalating situation between the US and Venezuela. However, the demand outlook is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with the crude oil price. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Currently, its valuation is low [13]. - **PX**: The cost decline slows down, and PX profitability continues to expand. The polyester load remains high, and the market expects a tight supply of raw materials in 2026, so PX is likely to rise easily and fall difficult in the short term [14]. - **PTA**: It follows the rise of upstream costs, and the spot basis remains firm. The overall supply - demand pattern of near - month PTA is relatively tight, and the profit has stronger support below [15]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in a state of weak reality and divided expectations. The recent trading focuses on far - month device maintenance and storage pressure. The market has different expectations for the balance in Q1 2026 [17][19]. - **Styrene**: Both upward and downward movements are restricted, and it oscillates. The support from crude oil and the cost side is insufficient, but its own supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in December [21]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Factories reduce production to maintain prices, and ethylene glycol rebounds after an over - decline. In the short term, the supply - demand pressure eases slightly, but the long - term inventory accumulation pattern remains [22]. - **Short - Fiber**: The decline in upstream costs eases, and the short - fiber price fluctuates with the upstream. The factory inventory decreases slightly, and the support for processing fees below is enhanced [24][26]. - **Polyester Bottle Chip**: The price is supported by upstream raw material costs. It follows the rise of upstream polyester raw materials, but the price increase is limited due to the restart of some devices [28][29]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disturbances occur again, and methanol is expected to oscillate strongly. The port inventory decreases, and there are expectations of supply reduction in the Middle East and non - Iranian sources [30][31]. - **Urea**: A new round of Indian tenders and enterprise inventory - reduction information boost the market, and the futures price rebounds temporarily. The actual fundamental support is insufficient, and the impact of Indian tenders on the domestic market is relatively limited [32][34]. - **Plastic**: The oil price weakens, and the support from maintenance is limited. It oscillates weakly. The fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [36]. - **PP**: The expectation of maintenance provides support, and it oscillates. The PDH profit is under short - term pressure, and the supply - demand pattern is still under pressure [37]. - **PL**: The spot is strong, and the expectation of PDH maintenance provides support. It oscillates. The PDH maintenance expectation has a boosting effect, but the short - term powder profit is under pressure [38]. - **PVC**: The exit of overseas devices boosts market sentiment. However, the over - supply expectation in the PVC market has not been reversed, and it is expected to oscillate in the medium term [39]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations and is likely to oscillate. There is short - term inventory reduction, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand is under pressure [40][41]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [43]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [44]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are given, along with the latest values and changes [45]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the given text for this part, only the variety names are mentioned. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and PPI commodity index all show an upward trend on December 17, 2025 [285]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 17, 2025 shows a decline. The daily, 5 - day, 1 - month, and year - to - date percentage changes are - 0.69%, - 2.18%, - 7.35%, and - 12.62% respectively [286].

原油 2025/12/18 原油 能源化工组 能源化工日报 2025-12-18 利多兑现后盘面再度陷入短期盘整，港口倒流叠加转口船发货带来港口库存进一步去化。后续 来看，进口到港仍将处于高位，而港口烯烃装置存检修预期，后续港口压力仍在，目前港口绝 对库存水平依旧较高。供应端企业利润回落到中性位置，开工维持同期高位，整体供应高位。 随着利多的兑现，盘面仍将回归现实逻辑，甲醇基本面仍有一定压力，预计低位整理为主，策 略方面单边建议观望。 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 柴油库存去库 0.39 百万桶至 3.19 百万桶，环比去库 10.91%；燃料油库存累库 1.55 百万桶至 13.79 百万桶，环比累库 12.62%；总成品油累库 0.89 百万桶至 23.93 百万桶，环比累库 3.88%。 燃料油收涨 20.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.84%，报 2415.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 36.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.22%，报 2905.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 0. ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a historic surge, with spot silver prices recently breaking through $65 and $66 per ounce, approaching $67 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 130%, which is double the increase in gold futures [1][2] - Factors contributing to this surge include supply-demand imbalance, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased capital inflow [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has room for further rate cuts of 50 to 100 basis points, as indicated by Governor Waller, due to a weakening job market and controlled inflation [1][5] Group 2: Key Commodities - **Silver**: The price of silver has reached new historical highs, supported by a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a $40 billion reserve management purchase, which improves market liquidity and boosts risk appetite [2][16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market for coking coal remains stable, with slight increases in construction and hot-rolled steel production. However, there is a downward trend in iron production, and the market is expected to stabilize due to seasonal demand [2][21] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass production is in a phase of inventory digestion, with a decrease in glass inventory and a slight increase in soda ash inventory. The market is closely monitoring potential changes in industry operations [3][15] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 1.16%. However, the A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy and capital flow [8] - The bond market saw a general increase, with the 10-year treasury yield falling to 1.8425%, indicating a continued loose monetary policy environment [9][10] Group 4: International and Domestic News - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's policy direction indicates a likelihood of maintaining interest rates in January, with a 77% probability of no change and a 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut [5] - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance reported a slight increase in public budget revenue, with tax revenue growing by 1.8% year-on-year [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the products in the report are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the price center of oil prices declined. WTI January contract closed down $1.55 to $55.27 per barrel, a decrease of 2.73%. Brent February contract closed down $1.64 to $58.92 per barrel, a decrease of 2.71%. SC2601 closed at 421.8 yuan per barrel, down 9.1 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 2.11%. With the intensification of market macro - risks, oil prices will continue to seek a bottom [1]. - The high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Although the arbitrage shipments from the Western market to Singapore in December are expected to decrease, the Asian fuel oil market will remain well - supplied in December and January. The short - term absolute prices of FU and LU may fluctuate repeatedly following oil prices [2]. - The asphalt market is relatively firm due to concerns about future raw material shortages. The downstream demand shows obvious north - south differentiation. In the short term, asphalt may remain stable under weak oil prices, but there is also a possibility of price decline if oil prices continue to fall [2]. - In the polyester market, with the decline of processing fees and seasonal weakening of terminal demand, prices will be further dragged down. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to new production capacity and some loss - making devices [2][4]. - For rubber, the weather in overseas production areas has improved, raw material prices have rebounded, but demand support is limited. Rubber futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely [4]. - In the methanol market, Iranian device shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January, but MTO device loads are also decreasing. Methanol prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [5]. - The polyolefin market is gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the short - term futures decline space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - The PVC market has high - level supply oscillations and weakening domestic demand. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices dropped. API data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 9.3 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. Market expectations were different from the actual data. Macro data and geopolitical factors were also mentioned. Oil prices are expected to continue to seek a bottom [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil declined. The market is under pressure due to sufficient supply, but high - sulfur fuel oil cracking profit decline may boost refinery demand in the future. Short - term prices may fluctuate with oil prices [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract declined. Concerns about raw material shortages made the market relatively firm. Downstream demand has north - south differences. Short - term prices may remain stable but could fall if oil prices drop further [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 declined, EG2605 rose. Processing fees are low, terminal demand is seasonally weak, and new ethylene glycol production capacity is increasing supply pressure [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed different trends. Overseas weather improvement and raw material price rebound, but limited demand support, leading to expected wide - range oscillations [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, prices in different regions were reported. Supply is high - level oscillating, and demand is weakening. Iranian device shutdowns and MTO device load changes affect the market, with prices expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, prices and profit margins were given. Supply will remain high, demand will weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, market prices in different regions increased. Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand will weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Data such as spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and basis changes of various energy - chemical products on December 16th and 15th were presented, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - The negotiation between the U.S. and Ukraine on security guarantees for Ukraine made progress, but there are still differences on territorial issues [9]. - API data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased, which was different from market expectations [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Included price charts of main contracts of various products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [11][12][13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Included basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Included spread charts of different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [43][45][49] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Included spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][63][72] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Included production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **钟美燕**: The Assistant Director of the Institute and Director of Energy - Chemicals. With rich experience and many awards, she provides services for many companies and has media influence [74]. - **杜冰沁**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has won many awards and has in - depth industry research [75]. - **邸艺琳**: A natural rubber and polyester analyst. She has won awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **彭海波**: An analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. With a background in trade and financial knowledge [77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Amid the current inflation - expectation gaming phase, focus on the more certain non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors. Track the sentiment - driven market trends and prepare risk plans for potential right - side adjustments [4]. - The sentiment in the market remains high, but there are risks of policy expectation reversals both domestically and internationally. Be vigilant about the macro and fundamental resonance risks when market sentiment turns cold [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations in China are showing a swing. The Politburo Meeting on December 8 emphasized the continuation of an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and the Central Economic Work Conference on December 11 focused on boosting consumption and addressing "involution - style" competition. Multiple ministries have responded. China's November economic data shows industrial resilience, but consumption and fixed - asset investment are under pressure [2]. - The Fed has restarted a "restrictive" stance, with a planned purchase of $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days and a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut. The Fed may pause rate cuts again. US economic data has shown mixed results, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI has different trends. There are risks of a downward trend in the market if sentiment cools [3]. Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous metals: The long - term supply constraint problem has not been alleviated, and the certainty of investment remains high [4]. - Energy: OPEC members have proposed additional production cuts, and the EU plans to stop Russian gas imports by 2027. The expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has reduced concerns about oil supply disruptions. However, the oil market is facing a severe supply glut, and oil prices have dropped significantly [4]. - Chemicals: There is "anti - involution" potential in varieties such as methanol, caustic soda, urea, and PTA [4]. - Agriculture: With the Sino - US talks, attention should be paid to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast [4]. - Precious metals: There are opportunities for buying on dips, but the short - term risk of silver has increased, and the gold - silver ratio has deviated from the reasonable repair range [4]. Key News - The Central Financial Office detailed the spirit of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, stating that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue next year, aiming to promote economic growth and reasonable price recovery, using various monetary policy tools flexibly, and supporting key areas [6]. - China's November economic data shows that industrial production has resilience, but consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market are under pressure. The prices of 70 large and medium - sized cities have declined [6]. - US economic data includes an increase in non - farm payrolls in November, a rise in the unemployment rate, and a decline in the December manufacturing PMI [3][6]. - The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI has accelerated its contraction, with different performances in Germany and France [3]. - Brent crude oil prices have fallen below $60 per barrel, and WTI crude oil has reached a four - year low due to supply gluts [4][6].

能源化工日报 2025-12-17 2025/12/17 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 6.60 元/桶，跌幅 1.51%，报 430.50 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 33.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.36%，报 2396.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 66.00 元/吨，跌幅 2.21%，报 2921.00 元/吨。 中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存累库 0.29 百万桶至 206.16 百万桶，环比累库 0.14%； 汽油商业库存累库 2.37 百万桶至 89.69 百万桶，环比累库 2.71%；柴油商业库存累库 1.87 百 万桶至 92.45 百万桶，环比累库 2.07%；总成品油商业库存累库 4.24 百万桶至 182.14 百万 桶，环比累库 2.38%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们 ...

甲醇日报：供需边际略微改善，中期压力仍存 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 16 日 【冠通期货研究报告】 【基本面分析】 库存方面：截至 2025 年 12 月 10 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 123.44 万吨， 较上一期数据减少 11.5 万吨。其中，华东地区去库，库存减少 10.82 万吨；华 南地区去库，库存减少 0.68 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存大幅去库，个别码头船只 严重影响首港减载以及后续卸货，导致周期内显性外轮仅卸入 16.63 万吨。华东 地区几无国产船只抵港，倒流内地强势支撑沿江主流库区提货；浙江有大型终端 于周初停车，但其他消费持稳；最终卸货不及预期导致华东大幅去库。进口方面 主要是伊朗因限气，部分装置停车，开工率下降，日均产能降至 15000 吨附近， 但是伊朗 11 月已装 125 万吨，年内预计到港量持续，进口压力仍存。 【宏观面分析】 关键事件：中国 11 月规模以上工业增加值同比 4.8%，预期 5%，前值 4.90%。 中国 11 月社会消费品零售总额同比 1.3%，预期 2.8%，前值 2.90%。 国家统计局： 11 月份居民消费价格同比涨幅进一步扩大，积极变化继续显 ...

上周市场风格延续科技成长占优，周期与消费回调。AI相关的光模块/光芯片进一步走强，可控核聚变 与数据中心电力大涨，智能电网等绿电消纳相关热度提升，商业航天延续高热度；炭黑/磷化工/甲醇和 地产/家纺等表现落后。 国内方面，上周中央经济工作会议举行，中央提出做好新形势下经济工作的五点新的认识和体会，确定 了八项重点任务。会议明确"不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头"，并提出财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主 导"，"推动投资止跌回稳"，房地产"去库存"。中财办副主任表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策， 继续实施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，实现"十五五"良好开局。 从宏观数据来看，11月国内核心CPI同比维持高位，PPI同比降幅扩大；社融数据延续此前财政支撑走弱 和私人信用疲软的格局；出口动能修复但基数将升。具体来看： 11月CPI同比回升至0.7%，PPI同比回落至-2.2%，CPI主要受到食品、消费补贴政策及金价上涨推动， 国际油价下行对PPI价格形成压力，下游耐用品消费价格仍然偏弱。财政支撑走弱和私人信用疲软， M1-M2缺口在11月迅速扩大，但后续M1仍有边际企稳的可能。11月美元计价的中国出口增速5.9 ...