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今年物价,哪些“强”,哪些“弱”?——5月通胀数据点评
一瑜中的· 2025-06-10 10:03
文 : 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜(执业证号:S0360518090001) 联系人:付春生(18482259975) 事 项 5月,CPI同比下降0.1%,预期下降0.2%,前值下降0.1%;核心CPI同比上涨0.6%,前值上涨0.5%。PPI同 比下降3.3%,预期下降3.2%,前值下降2.7%。 核心观点 物价环比的意义较同比可能更为重要。我们系统分析,从环比来看,今年以来的物价,哪些"强",哪 些"弱",更有助于全面和定量地看待物价的分化特征 。 CPI的"强"与"弱" 就CPI而言,因季节性较为明显且变动相对较小,若今年前5个月的环比累计涨幅大于2021-2024年同期环比 累计涨幅,定义为"强",反之定义为"弱" 。 第一,整体来看 ,今年以来CPI环比累计涨幅为0%,弱于2021-24年同期的0.4%;但核心CPI环比累计涨幅 为0.5%,略好于2021-24年同期的0.4%。 第二,从大类来看 , 食品 ( 今年环比累计涨幅-0.6%,过去4年同期为-1%,下同) 、 房租(0.1%, 0%)、核心商品(0.9%,0.1%) 价格"强",能源(-2.3%,3.8%)、除房租以 ...
大类资产周报:资产配置与金融工程波动率下行,风险稀释但未消退
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-06-10 07:25
Market Overview - The market continues to exhibit a "risk-off but not panic" sentiment, with commodities and Asia-Pacific equities leading the performance[4] - Natural gas and crude oil prices have surged due to OPEC+ production cuts and summer demand, breaking key resistance levels[4] - Silver prices have skyrocketed by 9% to $36 per ounce, the highest since 2012, driven by industrial demand and safe-haven buying[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Bond market shows strong value in short-duration high-grade credit bonds due to weak growth/inflation data and liquidity easing, but caution is advised as interest rate downside potential narrows[7] - U.S. equities are supported by economic resilience, although fundamental data shows marginal weakening[7] - Gold remains supported by slowing growth and safe-haven demand, but faces short-term pressure from risk appetite recovery[7] Economic Indicators - The Chinese Business Conditions Index (BCI) recorded 50.30, slightly above the expansion threshold but down 4.45 points from March's peak of 54.75, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum[40] - The U.S. economic surprise index has dropped to -6.7, reflecting weaker-than-expected high-frequency data, reinforcing rate cut expectations[53] Market Sentiment - The implied volatility (VIX) has reached a new low, indicating a market adaptation to the noise of tariff threats, with the dollar index down nearly 9% year-to-date, enhancing the appeal of non-U.S. assets[4] - A-share market liquidity is improving, with a daily average turnover of 1.186 trillion yuan, up 10.8% week-on-week, indicating increased investor participation[57] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustment risks, market volatility risks, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6][96]
申银万国期货首席点评:白银闪亮,黑色暗淡
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 07:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors due to factors such as trade policies, economic data, and central bank policies [2][3][4] - Precious metals: Gold is in a long - term uptrend with short - term fluctuations, while silver is currently strong. Steel market faces supply - demand imbalance, and the crude oil market has short - term support but long - term pressure [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News International News - US May non - farm payrolls added 139,000, exceeding expectations. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut by July is 16.5% [5] Domestic News - Canadian Prime Minister expressed willingness to restart Canada - China relations and strengthen cooperation in various fields [6] Industry News - As of June 6, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index increased by 167.64 points, and the China Export Container Freight Index rose by 3.3% [7] 3.2 Outer - disk Daily Earnings - S&P 500 increased by 0.09%, FTSE China A50 Futures decreased by 0.17%, and ICE Brent crude oil rose by 0.72% from June 6 to June 9 [8] 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Stock Index: Currently in a state of shock, with low implied volatility of stock index options. If there are new stimuli, it may choose a direction and increase volatility [10][11] - Treasury Bonds: Showed mixed performance. The market funds are relatively loose, and the price is supported to some extent, but it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of trade negotiations [12] Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: SC night session fluctuated upward. Short - term support exists, but long - term pressure comes from a 1.2 - million - barrel - per - day increase in production [4][13] - Methanol: Short - term bullish, with an increase in import arrivals expected [14] - Rubber: Supply pressure is increasing, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak [15] - Polyolefins: May gradually stop falling and build a bottom, with limited driving force [16][17] - Glass/Soda Ash: Both are in a cycle of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to the balance of supply and demand [18] Metal - Precious Metals: Gold is in shock, and silver is strong in the short term. The gold - silver ratio is being repaired [2][19] - Copper: May fluctuate in a range due to the balance of supply and demand factors [20] - Zinc: Short - term price may fluctuate widely, affected by factors such as US tariffs [21] - Aluminum: May fluctuate in the short term, with weakening demand [22][23] - Nickel: May show a shock - strong trend in the short term, with mixed supply and demand factors [24] - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamental situation has not improved substantially, and attention should be paid to low - level capital games [25] Black - Iron Ore: Has short - term support but may be weak in the later stage, affected by factors such as steel mill production and global shipments [26] - Steel: Faces a situation of weak supply and demand, with rebar weaker than hot - rolled coils in the short term [3][27] - Coking Coal/Coke: Futures prices are at a low level, and the market is uncertain. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback [28][29] Agricultural Products - Oils and Fats: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains, and attention should be paid to the MPOB report [30] - Protein Meal: Expected to be bullish in the short term due to improved US soybean export prospects and domestic inventory accumulation [31] - Corn/Corn Starch: The long - term supply gap may exist, and the main contract can be treated as bullish at a low level [32] - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure at a high level, and attention should be paid to export orders [33] Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the price increase in July and August [34][35]
5月汽车下游销售增长
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 05:15
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, the downstream sales of the automotive industry increased, with the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 1.021 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and a month-on-month increase of 12.1%. From January to May, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles totaled 4.351 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34.1% [1]. - On June 9th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Civil Affairs issued a notice on carrying out pilot projects for intelligent elderly care service robots. The market scale of China's intelligent elderly care robots is expanding rapidly, and Founder Securities expects the market to reach 50 billion yuan in 2025 [1]. - Attention should be paid to the policy promotion in the insurance industry. The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on further ensuring and improving people's livelihood, proposing multiple measures such as canceling household registration restrictions for social insurance participation, and increasing the supply of affordable housing [2]. 3. Summary by Industry Production Industry - **Automotive**: In May, the downstream sales of the automotive industry increased, with significant growth in the sales of new energy passenger vehicles [1]. - **Intelligent Elderly Care**: The market scale of intelligent elderly care robots is expanding rapidly, and relevant pilot projects are being carried out [1]. Service Industry - **Insurance**: Attention should be paid to policy promotion, and relevant policies aim to improve people's livelihood and social security [2]. Upstream Industry - **Energy**: International oil prices rebounded significantly compared to last week [2]. - **Chemical**: The prices of soda ash and urea declined significantly [2]. - **Agriculture**: Egg prices fluctuated [2]. Midstream Industry - **Chemical**: Urea prices are currently at a high level [2]. - **Agriculture**: The operating rate of pig product processing has been at a high level recently [2]. Downstream Industry - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as the same period last year, at a near - three - year low [2]. - **Service**: The number of domestic and international flights has decreased [2]. 4. Industry Data Tracking - **Industry Credit Spreads**: Data on industry credit spreads for various industries such as农牧渔林,采掘, and化工 are provided, showing their changes over different time periods [47]. - **Key Industry Price Indicators**: Price data for various industries including agriculture, energy, and chemical are provided, along with their year - on - year changes and trends in the past 5 days [48].
刚果(布)总统萨苏赴法进行工作访问
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-06-09 17:24
Group 1: Environmental Protection - Two financing agreements were signed under France's "National Forests, Nature and Climate Initiative" to support the management of Congo's natural reserves in two phases [2] - An intention statement was signed to establish a regional academy in Brazzaville dedicated to combating environmental crimes, focusing on illegal mining, logging, trafficking of protected species, and the import of toxic waste [3] - France seeks support from Congo for the approval of the "International Agreement on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction" at the upcoming UN Ocean Conference on June 9 [3] - President Sassou held a book launch for "Exploring the Republic of Congo Along the Water," promoting the country's natural and cultural resources [4] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - A memorandum of cooperation was signed between the Autonomous Port of Pointe-Noire and France's Haropa Group to share expertise in port management and logistics, focusing on knowledge exchange, best practices, innovation to reduce carbon footprints, and sustainable development [5] - An energy cooperation agreement was signed between Congo's national electricity company and Seureca, a subsidiary of Veolia Group, to modernize the public distribution network with support from a French technical and experience exchange fund [6] - Funding was provided by France for the extension of the Brazzaville riverside road to the Joue Bridge, with the first phase financed under a debt relief and development contract, and the French Development Agency (AFD) may oversee subsequent project work [7]
氪星晚报 |广汽埃安换帅,閤先庆接任董事长;联合利华中国公司换帅;北京:鼓励老字号与知名IP跨界合作,构建“时尚北京IP”
3 6 Ke· 2025-06-09 10:44
Group 1: Company Developments - Zhite New Materials signed an overseas project contract worth approximately 142 million RMB, accounting for 5.61% of the company's projected revenue for 2024 [1] - GAC Aion appointed He Xianqing as the new chairman, succeeding Feng Xingya [2] - Unilever China appointed Roland Polaroid Hutabarat as the new chairman, replacing Zhong Zhaomin [4] - The first multi-category second-hand circular warehouse store "Super Turn" opened in Beijing, covering over 3,000 square meters [5] - Ganfeng Lithium established a new energy storage technology company in Chongqing with a registered capital of 5 million RMB [9] - JD.com has registered multiple trademarks related to travel, indicating its entry into the travel and hospitality sector [10] Group 2: Financial Activities - Xinda Biologics received a net inflow of 1.125 billion HKD from southbound funds, indicating strong investor interest [3] - Hangzhou Bubee Food Technology completed an angel round financing led by Qingda Capital [12] - Hefei Anan Information Technology completed an angel round financing of 10 million RMB, aimed at enhancing its technological capabilities [13] Group 3: New Products and Standards - Xiaoyuan Learning Machine is leading the establishment of the first industry eye protection standard for learning machines, marking a significant step towards standardization in the field [14] Group 4: Industry Trends and Government Initiatives - Beijing's Commerce Bureau is encouraging collaborations between time-honored brands and well-known IPs to stimulate the fashion consumption market [16] - The Central Committee and State Council of China are promoting the supply of affordable housing and supporting social forces in operating long-term rental housing [18]
高频数据跟踪:物价边际回暖,航运指数上行
China Post Securities· 2025-06-09 10:01
Group 1: Report Information - The report is a fixed - income report released on June 9, 2025 [1] - Analysts are Liang Weichao (SAC registration number: S1340523070001) and Cui Chao (SAC registration number: S1340523120001) [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production is stable with a slight decline, real estate shows continuous marginal improvement, prices have a marginal recovery, and shipping indices continue to rise significantly. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of new growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and changes in US tariff policies [2][31] Group 3: Production - In the week of June 6, the capacity utilization rate of coke ovens decreased by 0.15 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.31 pct, and the output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased by 3.6 pct, the PX operating rate increased by 4.91 pct, and the PTA operating rate increased by 6.1 pct. The operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 1.33 pct, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 4.39 pct [3][10][11] Group 4: Demand - In the week of June 1, the real estate market continued to improve, with the transaction area of commercial housing rising and the inventory - to - sales ratio falling. The land transaction area increased, and the premium rate of residential land transactions decreased. The movie box office increased by 235 million yuan compared with the previous week. In the week of May 31, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 34,500 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 80,700 vehicles. In the week of June 6, the shipping index SCFI rose 8.09%, CCFI rose 3.34%, and BDI rose 15.16% [3][14][20] Group 5: Prices - In the week of June 6, Brent crude oil prices rose 4.02% to $66.47 per barrel, coking coal futures prices rose 5.06% to 779 yuan per ton. The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.83%, +0.12%, and +1.25% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures prices rose 0.64%. The overall price of agricultural products decreased, with the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 0.97%, - 2.96%, +0.46%, and - 0.64% respectively compared with the previous week [3][22][24] Group 6: Logistics - In the week of June 7, the subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline. In the week of May 28, the number of domestic and international flights decreased [4][27][29]
宏观经济专题:经济动能边际放缓
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-06-09 08:46
2025 年 06 月 09 日 经济动能边际放缓 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 何宁(分析师) 郭晓彬(联系人) hening@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790522110002 3.需求端,建筑需求偏弱,汽车、家电需求转弱。最近两周,建筑需求弱于历史 同期,螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需求低于历史同期。汽车销售同比有所回落,中 国轻纺城成交量处于同期历史低位,义乌小商品价格指数有所回升,多数家电线 上、线下销售额低于 2024 年同期。 商品价格:国际定价产品偏强,国内定价产品偏弱 1.国际大宗商品:原油、铜铝震荡运行,黄金上行。最近两周,原油、铜、铝价 格震荡运行;金价有所回升。 2.国内工业品:震荡偏弱运行。最近两周,国内定价工业品震荡偏弱运行,南华 综合指数已接近 2024 年 9 月低位水平。黑色、煤炭以及多数化工品价格回落, 建材中除沥青外价格均回落。 地产与流动性:二手房成交量转弱,资金利率震荡下行 1.新建房:总体成交维持历史低位,一线城市有韧性。最近两周(5 月 25 日至 6 月 7 日),全国 30 大中城市商品房成交面积平均值较上两周环比回落 7%,从季 节性上看弱于历史同期,较 ...
月度宏观经济回顾与展望:关注“以旧换新”与消费补贴的改变-20250609
Orient Securities· 2025-06-09 08:33
Group 1: Economic Performance - As of May 31, 2025, the "old-for-new" program has driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers[5] - The estimated fiscal funding of 139.2 billion yuan represents 42% of the progress towards the target, closely aligning with the scheduled progress of 5/12[5] - The retail sales growth for April was 5.1%, down from 5.9% in March, but still better than the previous year's performance[9] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The "old-for-new" program has reached 12.4% of the population with 175 million subsidies issued, indicating significant coverage and potential for future growth[5] - The demand for building and decoration materials improved in April, with a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, the highest since December 2021[9] - The retail sales of gold and jewelry surged to a year-on-year increase of 25.3% in April, reflecting strong consumer interest driven by rising gold prices[9] Group 3: Investment and Financing - The total social financing scale increased by 11.59 billion yuan in April, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%[12] - Government bond issuance maintained a rapid pace, with new issuance of 972.9 billion yuan in April, significantly higher than the previous year[13] - Corporate loans decreased by 250 billion yuan year-on-year in April, while corporate bonds saw an increase of 633 billion yuan, indicating a shift in financing methods[13] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Fluctuations in Trump's tariff policies continue to impact market risk appetite, contributing to uncertainty in trade relations[5] - The restructuring of the industrial chain due to tariffs poses risks of global growth slowdown and overcapacity[5]
5月物价数据解读:核心CPI延续改善,PPI同比降幅走阔
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-06-09 07:59
宏观动态报告 核心 CPI 延续改善、PPI 同比降幅走阔 5 月物价数据解读 2025年6月9日 分析师 张迪 ☎:010-8092-7737 网:zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码:S0130524060001 目雷 ☎:010-8092-7780 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码:S0130524080002 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 5 月 CPI 环比由涨转降至-0.2%(前值 0.1%),同比下降 0.1%(前值-0.1%), 过去五年(春节在1月份,下同)的季节性环比均值为-0.3%,其中食品价格 环比下降 0.2%(前值 0.2%)、过去五年环比均值为-1.1%;非食品价格环比 下降 0.2%(前值 0.1%),过去五年环比均值为 0。核心 CPI 环比由涨转平, 同比涨幅扩大至 0.6%,涨幅比上月扩大 0.1 个百分点。PPI 环比下降 0.4% (前值-0.4%),同比下降 3.3%(前值-2.7%),环比持平、同比降幅走阔 ...