Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on non-ferrous metals from the Commodity Research Institute, dated July 23, 2025 [2] - It covers various non-ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, casting aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate - It provides market reviews, important information, trading strategies, and price and related data for each metal Group 2: Market Reviews Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2509 contract closed at 79,590 yuan/ton, down 0.08%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 73 lots to 512,000 lots [2] - In the spot market, copper prices in the East China market were above 79,500 yuan/ton, suppressing downstream purchasing sentiment. In the South China market, inventory decreased but demand was low. In the North China market, demand expectations were not optimistic [2] Alumina - The Alumina 2509 contract fell 97 yuan to 3,355 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 19,393 lots to 388,300 lots [9] - Spot prices in various regions increased, with the Aladdin Alumina North Spot Composite up 40 yuan to 3,230 yuan [9] Electrolytic Aluminum - The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 75 yuan/ton to 20,815 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 3,190 lots to 691,200 lots [17] - Spot prices in different regions decreased, and coal prices increased [17] Casting Aluminum Alloy - The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 60 yuan to 20,155 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 520 lots to 11,008 lots [26] - Spot prices in various regions remained flat [26] Zinc - The Shanghai Zinc 2509 rose 0.5% to 22,975 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Zinc Index adding 4,437 lots to 241,600 lots [33] - In the spot market, trading was light and the spot premium was weak [33] Lead - The Shanghai Lead 2509 fell 0.44% to 16,850 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Lead Index adding 601 lots to 102,100 lots [40] - In the spot market, the price of regenerated refined lead was stable, and the willingness of holders to sell and downstream enterprises to buy was low [40] Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel, NI2509, fell 70 to 123,370 yuan/ton, with the index positions decreasing by 2,860 lots [46] - The premiums of Jinchuan Nickel, Russian Nickel, and Electrowon Nickel changed slightly [46] Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel, SS2509, rose 10 to 12,900 yuan/ton, with the index positions increasing by 7,690 lots [53] - Spot prices of cold-rolled and hot-rolled stainless steel were reported [53] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 0.58% to 9,525 yuan/ton after a sharp rise and fall [60] - Spot prices of industrial silicon increased significantly [61] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures rose 5.5% to 50,080 yuan/ton after a sharp correction [66] - Spot prices of various types of polysilicon increased [66] Lithium Carbonate - The main contract of lithium carbonate, 2509, fell 2,940 to 69,380 yuan/ton, with the index positions decreasing by 27,082 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increasing by 665 to 10,754 tons [69] - Spot prices of electric carbon and industrial carbon increased [71] Group 3: Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a stable growth plan for ten key industries including non-ferrous metals, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [3][4][10][22][67] - In the second quarter of 2025, copper production increased, and several mining companies' copper production also grew [3][4] - Kazakhstan plans to double its copper production by 2030 [4] - Canada's Solaris Resources hopes its Warintza project will start production in 2030 [4] - Germany announced an investment plan of over 630 billion euros to boost the economy [4] - The 232 tariff on copper will take effect on August 1, with a 50% tariff rate [7] - Some trade-related agreements and negotiations are in progress, such as the US-Philippines trade agreement and the US-Thailand trade negotiation [19][22][47] Group 4: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: Short-term bullish, copper prices are expected to be strong [12] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [12] Alumina - Unilateral: Short-term wide-range volatile [15] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [15] - Options: Wait and see [15] Electrolytic Aluminum - Unilateral: Short-term high-level volatile [24] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [24] - Options: Wait and see [24] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Unilateral: Volatile at a high level following aluminum prices [30] - Arbitrage: Consider cash-and-carry arbitrage when the cash-futures spread is above 300 - 400 yuan [31] - Options: Wait and see [31] Zinc - Unilateral: Short-term bullish, short-term long positions can be considered [39] Lead - Unilateral: At a relatively low price, long positions can be lightly tried under the cost support of secondary lead [43] - Arbitrage: Sell put options [44] - Options: Wait and see [44] Nickel - Unilateral: Short-term follow the macro atmosphere [49] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [50] - Options: Sell deep out-of-the-money put options [51] Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Volatile and bullish [57] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [58] Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Close long positions [63] - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts, and positive arbitrage for the 11th and 10th contracts [65] - Options: Buy protective put options [63] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short-term bullish, pay attention to the number of warehouse receipts [68] - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage for far-month contracts [68] - Options: None [68] Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Short-term follow the trend [74] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [75] - Options: Sell deep out-of-the-money put options [76] Group 5: Price and Related Data - The report provides daily data tables for each metal, including spot prices, futures prices, spreads, ratios, import and export profits, and inventory data [78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85][86][87] - It also includes various charts showing the trends of prices, spreads, and inventories over time [90][92][97][99][103][111][113][116][121][127][129][134][139][142][145][152][154][159][165][172][174][181][183][189][191]

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Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. The market is optimistic about the macro situation, and funds are trading in advance on the expectation of supply - side clearance, which boosts copper prices. However, the demand side has weakened significantly, showing a stage of weak supply and demand. The domestic macro - policy support and low inventory support the copper price. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the price is expected to be strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but there are risks of squeeze - out due to policy changes in Guinea and warehouse receipt reduction. In the medium term, it is recommended to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, in the short term, the price is under pressure at a high level, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory reduction and demand changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The regenerative aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and marginal changes in imports [5]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [8]. Nickel - Macro - sentiment boosts the market, but the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support for refined nickel is loosening, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. In the short term, the price is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. However, the market sentiment is good recently. It is recommended to avoid short positions for now and short at high prices after the sentiment stabilizes [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a consumption off - season, and the terminal demand is weak. The macro - expectation is strong, and the supply may decrease in the future. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel - mill production cuts [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures market is supported by macro - sentiment and news. The price is expected to run strongly in a range, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and upstream actions [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,755 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 13.04% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month, and the import volume was 0.3005 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,940 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The alumina prices in different regions have different degrees of increase [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,250 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.615 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.255 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,780 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The zinc ore TC has risen to 3,800 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month, and the import volume was 0.0361 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,550 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day. The production cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel is 121,953 yuan/ton, up 0.88% month - on - month [11]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month, and the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [11]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price is 266,300 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. The 5 - month tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month, and the import volume was 2,076 tons, up 84.04% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is 12,900 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The 43 - company 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The 300 - series stainless - steel import volume was 0.1095 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month, and the export volume was 0.39 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 68,169 yuan/ton, up 1.62% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in June was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The lithium carbonate demand in June was 93,872 tons, down 0.15% month - on - month, and the total inventory was 99,858 tons, up 2.27% month - on - month [17].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily morning observation of non - ferrous and precious metals on July 22, 2025, covering multiple metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, etc. [1][2] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Review - London gold reached a five - week high, closing up 1.4% at $3396.67 per ounce; London silver hit a one - week high, closing up 1.97% at $38.897 per ounce. Affected by the overseas market, Shanghai gold futures rose 0.76% to 785.76 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 1.85% to 9420 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.64% to 97.853, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.3802%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened, rising 0.07% to 7.1707. [2] Important Information - EU diplomats are exploring broader counter - measures against US tariffs but prefer negotiation; the US Treasury Secretary is more concerned about high - quality deals; Indonesia's 19% US tariff may take effect by August 1. A US Republican congressman accused Powell of perjury, and the Fed added a video tour of its headquarters renovation on its website. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 97.4% and in September is 41.4%. [2] Logic Analysis - With the approaching of reciprocal tariffs, market concerns resurfaced. Trump's pressure on Powell also increased market unease and loosened the expectation of the Fed maintaining high rates. [2] Trading Strategy - For the precious metals market, consider holding long positions for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [4] Group 3: Copper Market Review - The night - session of SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 79770 yuan per ton, up 0.64%, and the SHFE copper index added 689 lots to 514,000 lots. LME copper closed at $9867 per ton, up 0.74%. LME inventory increased by 100 tons to 122,000 tons, and COMEX inventory rose by 1023 tons to 248,000 tons. [6] Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a growth - stabilizing plan for ten key industries. In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 337,000 tons, up 15.15% month - on - month and 9.23% year - on - year; scrap copper imports were 183,244.238 tons, down 1.06% month - on - month but up 8.49% year - on - year. [6] Logic Analysis - The expected supply - side reform boosts market sentiment, but the current consumption is in the off - season, and the upside of copper prices is limited. [8][9] Trading Strategy - For copper, the short - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [12] Group 4: Alumina Market Review - The night - session of alumina 2509 contract rose 118 yuan to 3430 yuan per ton, up 3.56%. Spot prices in different regions also increased. The price of thermal coal at Jinzheng Northern Port also went up. [11] Important Information - The government will promote the construction of a unified national market and eliminate backward production capacity. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a growth - stabilizing plan for key industries. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for 10,000 tons of alumina, and the winning bid price was 3430 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan from last week. The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE were 6922 tons, unchanged from the previous day. A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong resumed production after maintenance, and a company in Guizhou will have a 10 - day maintenance. As of Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 112.92 million tons, with 93.85 million tons in operation, up 300,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 83.1%. [11][14][15] Logic Analysis - The expected policy of eliminating backward production capacity and low warehouse receipts drive up the futures price. The supply - demand of alumina remains in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to the import market after the futures price rises. [16] Trading Strategy - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to be strong but volatile. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [17] Group 5: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2508 contract rose 100 yuan per ton to 20880 yuan per ton. On July 21, the spot prices in East, South, and Central China all increased. [19] Important Information - The national aluminum ingot inventory increased by 9000 tons from last Thursday. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 2804 tons to 63744 tons on July 21. From January to June, the completed floor area of housing decreased by 14.8%, and in June, it decreased by 2.15% year - on - year. New US tariffs may take effect in early August, and the EU is considering counter - measures. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a growth - stabilizing plan for key industries. In June, the export of aluminum products decreased, and the import of aluminum ingots decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. On July 20, a 50,000 - ton capacity of an electrolytic aluminum project in Baise entered the restart stage. [20][21][22] Logic Analysis - The new US tariffs in early August bring uncertainty, and domestic policy expectations are also a factor. The negative feedback in the fundamentals continues, but the demand in the off - season may not be too weak, and the market's optimistic sentiment about the domestic policy of eliminating backward production capacity supports the aluminum price. [22] Trading Strategy - For electrolytic aluminum, the short - term price is expected to be strong and volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [23] Group 6: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 120 yuan to 20220 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions all increased. [25] Important Information - In June 2025, the weighted average full cost of the Chinese cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry was 19551 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan from May. The industry had a theoretical loss of 41 yuan per ton. As of July 17, the weekly output of cast aluminum alloy increased by 2300 tons to 142,500 tons, and the weekly output of ADC12 increased by 4000 tons to 79,400 tons. [26] Logic Analysis - The supply of alloy ingot enterprises is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is supported by motorcycle parts orders but weak in automobile parts orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost and aluminum price, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity between the spot and futures. [26] Trading Strategy - For cast aluminum alloy, the price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to consider spot - futures arbitrage when the price difference is above 300 - 400 yuan for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options. [27] Group 7: Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc market rose 0.73% to $2844.5 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2509 contract rose 0.39% to 22875 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc index position decreased by 1896 lots to 236,500 lots. The spot market was weak, with low trading volume. [29] Important Information - As of July 21, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 92,700 tons, down 40 tons from July 14 and 80 tons from July 17. In June 2025, the import of zinc concentrates was 330,000 tons, down 32.87% month - on - month but up 22.42% year - on - year; the import of refined zinc was 36,100 tons, up 34.98% month - on - month and 3.24% year - on - year; the export of refined zinc was 1900 tons, with a net import of 34,100 tons. The export of galvanized sheets and die - cast zinc alloys increased, while the export of zinc oxide increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. [30][32][33] Logic Analysis - The zinc price may rebound in the short - term due to macro and capital factors, but in the long - term, the supply of zinc ore is sufficient, the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase, and the consumption is in the off - season, so the domestic social inventory may continue to accumulate. [33] Trading Strategy - For zinc, the short - term price may be strong, and it is recommended to go long in the short - term. After the macro sentiment fades, consider shorting at high prices according to the inventory accumulation. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [34] Group 8: Lead Market Review - The LME lead market rose 0.17% to $2015 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2509 contract rose 0.18% to 16995 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead index position decreased by 351 lots to 98,500 lots. The spot price of SMM1 lead increased by 100 yuan per ton, and the transaction improved. [37] Important Information - As of July 21, the SMM five - region lead ingot inventory was 71,300 tons, up 7900 tons from July 14 and 2300 tons from July 17. A large - scale secondary lead smelter in North China will resume production in early August, affecting the July output by about 2000 tons. In June 2025, the import of lead - acid batteries was 486,100 units, up 14.73% month - on - month and 8.51% year - on - year; the export was 18.7446 million units, down 6.69% month - on - month and 20.53% year - on - year. [38] Logic Analysis - In the short - term, the supply of lead ingots may improve, and the demand from downstream battery enterprises may increase in the traditional peak season. The lead price is supported by the cost and consumption expectations, and may be strong under the improving macro environment. [38] Trading Strategy - For lead, it is recommended to hold long positions for the unilateral strategy, sell put options for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options. [39] Group 9: Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel price rose 265 to $15510 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 300 to 207,976 tons. The SHFE nickel main contract NI2509 rose 1830 to 123,700 yuan per ton, and the index position increased by 6896 lots. The premiums of Jinchuan, Russian nickel, and electrowon nickel changed differently. [41] Important Information - Nornickel lowered its 2025 nickel production forecast to 196,000 - 204,000 tons. Lifezone Metals released a feasibility study report on its Kabanga nickel project, which is expected to produce 902,000 tons of nickel per year. In June 2025, China's unforged nickel imports were 17,200 tons, down 2.67% month - on - month but up 130.76% year - on - year; the refined nickel exports were 10,100 tons, down 27.41% month - on - month and 2.01% year - on - year. The net import of unforged nickel in June was 7072 tons. [42][43] Logic Analysis - The market is optimistic about the stimulus policy in the second half of the year. Nornickel's production cut helps relieve the oversupply. The fundamentals of nickel are not prominent, and the price may rebound in the short - term but the increase may be limited. [46] Trading Strategy - For nickel, the price may rise in the short - term following the macro environment. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for options. [47] Group 10: Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2509 contract rose 35 to 12905 yuan per ton, and the index position increased by 5967 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range. [49] Important Information - In June 2025, Indonesia's exports of 300 - series stainless steel products to Taiwan region of China decreased sharply. The environmental assessment of an 80,000 - ton stainless steel cold - rolling project in Guangxi was approved. A project of Guangdong Guangqing Metal Technology Co., Ltd. to improve the quality of stainless steel and build a continuous casting machine will start construction in September 2025 and is expected to be put into operation in March 2026, with an annual output of 400,000 tons of 400 - series stainless steel billets. [49] Logic Analysis - The market is optimistic about the stimulus policy, and the stainless steel price is expected to be strong in the short - term. However, the actual demand is not optimistic, and the market is trading on the macro logic. [50] Trading Strategy - For stainless steel, the price is expected to rise in a volatile manner for the unilateral strategy, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. [52] Group 11: Industrial Silicon Market Review - The main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 9260 yuan per ton, up 4.99%. Spot prices also increased significantly. [54] Important Information - A fire broke out at Shandong Zibo Dongyue Organic Silicon Material Co., Ltd., which has a methyl chlorosilane monomer production capacity of 600,000 tons per year. [54] Logic Analysis - Leading enterprises are reducing production, and the复产 capacity in the southwest is small - scale. There is a supply - demand gap in industrial silicon before the leading enterprises resume production. The inventory is mainly in the trading sector, and the futures price increase forms a positive feedback with the spot price. In the long - term, the market reversal depends on the leading enterprises'复产 rhythm. [54] Trading Strategy - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to take a long - biased approach for the unilateral strategy, buy protective put options for options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts and positive arbitrage for the 11th and 10th contracts for arbitrage. [55] Group 12: Polysilicon Market Review - No specific market review information is provided. Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a growth - stabilizing plan for key industries. The US solar manufacturing and trade alliance has filed an anti - dumping/anti - subsidy investigation against India, Indonesia, and Laos. [59] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon market is full of rumors, and the price increase can be transmitted to the downstream. The futures price is expected to fluctuate between 40,000 and 47,000 yuan per ton. The increase in industrial silicon price drives up the cost of polysilicon, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term until the number of warehouse receipts increases. [59][60] Trading Strategy - For polysilicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the number of warehouse receipts for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for the far - month contracts for arbitrage. [60] Group 13: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract of lithium carbonate rose 1760 to 71,280 yuan per ton, and the index position increased by 17,000 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 210 to 9969 tons. The spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate also increased. [62] Important Information

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing returns to macro trading. Pay attention to domestic anti-involution policies and overseas equivalent tariff policy expectations, with the main contract reference range of 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum - For alumina, short-term prices are expected to remain strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but beware of policy changes in Guinea and the risk of a short squeeze due to the reduction of warehouse receipts. Mid-term, it is recommended to go short on rallies. For aluminum, short-term prices are expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [4] Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,400 - 20,200 yuan/ton. Focus on the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and changes in imports. [6] Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Long-term supply is expected to be loose, but terminal consumption still has some resilience in the short term. [9] Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in macro expectations. [12] Tin - With the gradual resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, there is an expectation of supply-side repair. However, due to the current positive market sentiment, short positions should be avoided for now. After the sentiment stabilizes, consider shorting on rallies. [14] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to policy trends and the asset conditions of steel mills. [18] Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong within a range, with the main contract reference range of 68,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton. However, the mid-term upward risk is higher than the downward risk, and pay attention to upstream actions. [21] Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.14% to 79,555 yuan/ton. The spread between refined and scrap copper widened by 53.15% to 1,479 yuan/ton. [1] Fundamental Data - In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% to 1.1349 million tons, while imports increased by 18.74% to 300,500 tons. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.92% to 20,890 yuan/ton. The import loss of aluminum was 1,427 yuan/ton. [4] Fundamental Data - In June, alumina production decreased by 0.19% to 7.2581 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 3.609 million tons. [4] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy prices in different regions increased by 0.50% - 0.99%. [5] Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.49% to 615,000 tons, while the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.30% to 255,000 tons. [6] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 2.24% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The import loss of zinc was 1,706 yuan/ton. [9] Fundamental Data - In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 585,100 tons, and imports increased by 34.97% to 36,100 tons. [9] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.11% to 122,850 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread was -206 dollars/ton. [12] Fundamental Data - In June, China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, while imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. [12] Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.64% to 267,200 yuan/ton. The import loss of tin was 16,228.79 yuan/ton. [14] Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% to 13,449 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons. [14] Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B stainless steel coil prices in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.78% - 1.18%. 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price increased by 0.17% to 902 yuan/nickel point. [18] Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 mills) decreased by 3.83% to 1.7133 million tons. [18] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.03% to 68,000 yuan/ton. The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate widened by 3.13% to 1,650 yuan/ton. [21] Fundamental Data - In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% to 78,090 tons, and the demand decreased by 0.15% to 93,878 tons. [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Commodities mostly rose, and attention should be paid to the determination of policies. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds declined, and the listing benchmark price of propylene futures was set at 6,350 yuan/ton. Coal futures showed significant gains [1]. - In the medium to long term, A - shares have high investment value. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][12]. - The price of coking coal may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue their strong performance, but the risk of Trump's threat materializing needs to be watched [4][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Key News of the Day - **International News**: Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of U.S. industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and expected long - term high interest rates [5]. - **Domestic News**: China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year at 3.5%, which was in line with market expectations [6]. - **Industry News**: In June, China's total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative electricity consumption was 4,841.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.14%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.33%, and the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.26%. Gold and silver in London showed significant increases, while some agricultural products such as ICE 11 - sugar and CBOT soybeans declined [8]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The U.S. three major indexes mostly rose. The previous trading day's stock index also rose, with the building materials sector leading the gain and the banking sector leading the decline. The A - share market has high investment value in the medium to long term [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - end of Treasury bonds fell significantly. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of funds. The short - term market risk appetite increased, and the price volatility of Treasury bond futures may increase [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil futures fell 1.2% at night. U.S. refined oil demand decreased year - on - year, and the OPEC predicted an improvement in the global economy in the second half of the year [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures rose 0.79% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose. The supply side provided support, while the demand side was weak. The price is expected to rise slowly [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver strengthened again. The market's risk - aversion demand increased, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar and Treasury bond yields provided upward momentum [4][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed flat at night. The smelting output was under pressure, and the downstream demand was stable overall. The copper price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower at night. The concentrate processing fee increased, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The demand was in the peak season, but the inventory also increased. The short - term price may be strong, but there is no basis for a medium - term reversal [21]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global shipment decreased recently. The short - term macro - expectation was strong, and the iron ore price was expected to be strong [22][23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel gradually emerged, and the inventory continued to decline. The short - term steel price was expected to be strong [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of blast furnaces and coke improved, and the inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased. The price may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The U.S. and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, and the market's expectation of improved Sino - U.S. trade relations increased. The domestic supply was abundant, and the domestic soybean meal was expected to be strong in the short term [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats futures were weak at night. The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the demand for palm oil was strong. The overall oils and fats market was expected to fluctuate [27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract weakened at the end of the session. The SCFIS European line index declined. The European line was in the seasonal peak season, and the freight rate was expected to rise in August. Attention should be paid to the announcement of shipping company freight rates in August [29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation, the non-US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand." The spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - In the short term, the price of the main aluminum contract is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, ranging between 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The price of the main alumina contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton in the coming week [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging between 19,400 - 20,200 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price ranging between 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to adjust within a range in the short term, with the main contract price ranging between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions established at previous high levels [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price ranging between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong, with the main contract price ranging between 65,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton. However, there is still a downward risk in the medium term [16]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.82% to 78,660 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose by 70 yuan/ton to 175 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts decreased by 20 yuan/ton to -30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30% month-on-month; the import volume was 0.3005 million tons, an increase of 18.74% month-on-month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.63% to 20,700 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum rose by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19% month-on-month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22% month-on-month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,100 yuan/ton [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 35 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 0.615 million tons, an increase of 1.49% month-on-month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 0.255 million tons, a decrease of 2.30% month-on-month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.95% to 22,320 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, an increase of 6.50% month-on-month; the import volume was 0.0361 million tons, an increase of 34.97% month-on-month [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.87% to 121,500 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,000 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2509 - 2510 contracts increased by 30 yuan/ton to -90 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04% month-on-month; the import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% month-on-month [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1.37% to 265,500 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts increased by 120 yuan/ton to -90 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39% month-on-month; the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% month-on-month [11]. Stainless Steel - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% to 12,800 yuan/ton. The basis between futures and spot increased by 28.95% to 245 yuan/ton [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2509 - 2510 contracts remained unchanged at -40 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300-series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% month-on-month; the import volume was 0.1095 million tons, a decrease of 12.48% month-on-month [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.62% to 66,650 yuan/ton. The basis (based on SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate) decreased by 3.86% to -3,230 yuan/ton [16]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts decreased by 180 yuan/ton to -80 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% month-on-month; the demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15% month-on-month [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend due to political uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and ongoing global geo - economic risks [3]. - Copper prices may continue to be strong in the coming week, influenced by positive US retail data, tariff expectations, and favorable tariff policies between the US, Indonesia, and Japan [14]. - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term, supported by positive macro factors and low inventories [30]. - Alumina is expected to show a strong trend in the short term, driven by a significant decline in warrants and macro policies [31]. - Zinc prices will be mainly influenced by macro data and market sentiment in the short term, with supply - side disruptions also being a point of concern [60]. - The nickel industry chain may face some disturbances. The bottom support of nickel prices may shift, and the stainless - steel market shows some signs of improvement [73]. - Tin prices will likely continue to fluctuate, with the view that the upward pressure is greater than the downward support in the short term [91]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate will be strong in the market, and the operating rate is expected to increase in the long term [106]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while the polysilicon market needs to be cautious about the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [115]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fundamentals are dominated by Fed policy expectations. Political uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and global geo - economic risks support the upward trend of gold prices [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily - view analysis provided, but various price - related data such as SHFE and SGX silver futures and spot price differences are presented [6]. Copper - **Price Trend**: Copper prices showed a downward - breaking trend before July 17 but were boosted by positive US retail data and tariff expectations. They are expected to be slightly stronger in the coming week [14]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on copper futures and spot prices, import and export profits, and inventory changes [15][19][23]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Macro data is positive, and low inventories support prices. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term [30]. - **Alumina**: The current production capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot is tight. Warrants have decreased significantly, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is supported by high scrap - aluminum prices, but demand is weak in the off - season [31]. Zinc - **Price and Market**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term prices are mainly affected by macro data and market sentiment [60]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on zinc futures and spot prices, as well as inventory changes [61][66][69]. Nickel - **Industry Chain Situation**: The nickel industry chain is affected by factors such as export restrictions, tariffs, and rainfall in the Philippines. The bottom support of nickel prices may shift, and the stainless - steel market shows some signs of improvement [73]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, trading volumes, and inventories [74][76]. Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices are in a volatile trend. In the short term, the upward pressure is greater than the downward support due to the expected inflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand [91]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on tin futures and spot prices, as well as inventory changes [92][96][99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: In the short term, the market is strong due to macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. In the long term, the operating rate is expected to increase as prices rise [106]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on lithium carbonate futures prices, spreads, and inventory changes [107][113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: With positive macro - sentiment, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [115]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations have led to market speculation. Attention should be paid to the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [115]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on industrial silicon spot and futures prices, as well as prices of related products in the silicon industry chain [116][119].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation, the non-US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weakening actual demand"; the negotiation process of tariffs will also affect copper prices, with the main contract price expected to range between 77,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - In the short - term, the main contract price of alumina is expected to fluctuate between 3,000 - 3,400, and it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium - term; the short - term price of aluminum is expected to face pressure at high levels, with the main contract price ranging between 20,200 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract price ranging between 19,400 - 20,200 [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging between 22,000 - 23,500 [7]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to adjust within a range in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging between 118,000 - 126,000 [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, but there may be a significant increase in tin prices driven by market sentiment. It is recommended to hold short positions from previous highs [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging between 12,500 - 13,000 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong, with the main contract price ranging between 65,000 - 72,000; there is a risk of a decline in the medium - term [16]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,660 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 144 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,700 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,248 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,320 yuan/ton, up 0.95% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,391 yuan/ton [7]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 121,500 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,446 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 265,500 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 15,544.01 yuan/ton [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 12,800 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 66,650 yuan/ton, up 2.62% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is not provided [16]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month; imports were 0.3005 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.615 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.255 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [5]. - **Zinc**: In June, refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month; imports were 0.0361 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [9]. - **Tin**: In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports were 0.1095 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month; demand was 93,815 tons, down 0.15% month - on - month [16]. Market Analysis - **Copper**: Macro factors such as US tariffs and inflation, as well as the supply - demand relationship and inventory levels in the copper market, will affect copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Macro factors, supply - demand relationship, and inventory levels in the aluminum market, as well as the impact of Guinea's policies on the bauxite supply, will affect aluminum prices [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply - demand relationship in the aluminum alloy market, especially the weak demand in the terminal automotive industry, will affect aluminum alloy prices [5]. - **Zinc**: The supply - demand relationship in the zinc market, especially the high smelting plant operating rate and the differentiated demand in the primary processing industry, will affect zinc prices [7]. - **Nickel**: Macro factors such as US inflation and tariffs, as well as the supply - demand relationship and inventory levels in the nickel market, will affect nickel prices [9]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand relationship in the tin market, especially the supply recovery of tin ore in Myanmar and the weakening demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries, will affect tin prices [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: Macro factors, supply - demand relationship, and inventory levels in the stainless steel market, as well as the price fluctuations of raw materials such as nickel ore and ferronickel, will affect stainless steel prices [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand relationship in the lithium carbonate market, especially the continuous increase in production and the limited increase in demand, as well as the impact of news and capital sentiment, will affect lithium carbonate prices [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report offers daily outlooks and trend intensities for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move up in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to break through and move up, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Positive sentiment supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Likely to trade in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Supply - demand contradictions are emerging, and the price is strengthening, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][18]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Alumina sees capital inflows, with a trend intensity of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside, with a trend intensity of 0; Stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Pay attention to lithium - mining industry policies, and it is expected to run strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply - demand de - stocking makes the market resilient, with a trend intensity of 0; Polysilicon has upward momentum due to sentiment, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it will be bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][42]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][51]. - **Coke**: After the first round of price hikes, it will be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Coking coal will be slightly bullish, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][55]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price will stabilize in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][60]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental rally may be premature, and beware of sentiment reversal [2][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Pay attention to the previous high - technical resistance level and guard against a pull - back after a rally [2][5]. - **Corn**: Continues to rebound [2][5]. - **Sugar**: Trades in a range [2][5]. - **Cotton**: Notice market sentiment changes [2][5]. - **Eggs**: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][5]. - **Hogs**: Wait for the end - of - month verification [2][5]. - **Peanuts**: Slightly bullish in a volatile way [2][5]. Others - **Log**: Trades with wide - range fluctuations [2][64].