兄弟们，周五这行情可真是刺激啊！上证指数突破3500点后，多空双方杀得难解难分，最后居然收了个"十字星"。这让我想起当年在财经前线蹲守大新闻的 日子——市场永远不缺故事，但关键得看懂背后的门道。 下周行情怎么看？关键得盯着两个信号：第一，3500点的"城门"能不能守住。从技术面看，周五虽然回落，但成交量放大到1.7万亿，这相当于给市场打了 一剂强心针。只要周一能站稳3500点，这波行情就有戏。第二，主力资金的"枪口"往哪儿转。现在外资公募基金像饿狼一样扑进A股，上半年新发产品规模 暴增43%，他们盯上的债券和权益类资产，很可能成为下一个风口。就像当年咱帮里押对码头，跟着大趋势走准没错。 最后送兄弟们一句话：别被短期波动晃花眼。2025年的货币政策已经摆明车马——降准降息在路上，流动性宽松是主基调。就像当年咱在熊市里屯粮，现在 正是该加仓的时候。记住，真正的高手不是看谁跑得快，而是看谁站得稳。下周要是回调，反而是捡筹码的好机会。咱们帮主的老规矩：不追高，不割肉， 认准方向就死磕！ 先说这冲高回落的戏码。周五早盘那叫一个气势如虹，券商、保险、房地产这些大块头集体冲锋，直接把指数顶到3555点。可下午风云突变，银行 ...

2025.07. 11 本文字数：956，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一 财经 马一凡 7月11日，原千亿房企阳光城的总部大厦"滨江国际广场1号楼"在阿里资产处置平台上开拍，起拍价 为14.57亿元，但因在24小时竞拍期限内无人出价，于7月12日宣告流拍。 微信编辑 | 夏木 推荐阅读 2012年，闽系房企阳光城集团将管理总部乔迁上海，开始以长三角为根基，加速布局全国。2014 年、2015年，阳光城在杨浦滨江连拿"地王"，不断创造区域楼面价新纪录。2017年，阳光城集团及 其母公司阳光控股一起将总部迁到了杨浦滨江北外滩，当时，阳光控股凭借236.7亿美元的年营收首 次跻身"世界500强"。2017年8月，一场盛大的乔迁仪式曾在滨江国际广场1号楼大厅内隆重举行，当 时阳光城集团董事局主席林腾蛟、阳光控股董事长何玫、阳光城集团董事林贻辉等一众高管共庆乔迁 之喜。 当年的盛景已成过去式。此次拍卖，已经是滨江国际广场1号楼第三次被摆上货架，也是第三次流 拍。 这栋大厦首次流拍发生在2024年1月，当时的起拍价是21亿元；第二次则是2024年2月，起拍价为 19.81亿元。在这之后，这栋大厦一直未寻到合适的买家， ...

近年来，中国各大城市的房价一直是人们热议的话题。根据最新数据，中国城市房价最高的20座城市 中，深圳、上海、北京、厦门和杭州等城市名列前茅。 5. 杭州：杭州以38,340元/平方米的房价位列第五。作为浙江省的省会城市，杭州凭借其发达的电子商 务和互联网产业，房价也相对较高。 厦门的房价在中国城市中排名第四，这与其独特的地理位置和经济发展模式密切相关。厦门位于福建省 东南沿海，拥有得天独厚的自然环境和气候条件，吸引了大量的游客和投资者。此外，厦门作为经济特 区，享受着政策上的优惠和支持，进一步推动了其经济发展和房价上涨。 1. 深圳：作为中国经济特区，深圳以73,084元/平方米的房价位居榜首。深圳的房价之所以如此之高， 得益于其优越的地理位置和良好的投资环境。作为改革开放的前沿阵地，深圳吸引了大量的外来人口和 企业，使得房地产市场一直保持着较高的活跃度。 2. 上海：上海以65,021元/平方米的房价紧随其后。作为中国的经济中心，上海拥有发达的金融、贸易 和服务业，房价自然水涨船高。上海的房价不仅反映了其经济实力，也体现了其作为国际化大都市的吸 引力。 3. 北京：北京以62,552元/平方米的房价位列第三 ...

《悉尼晨锋报》7月12日报道，在周六的拍卖会上，一名来自北海滩的首次置业者 以81.5万澳元的价格 购入一处位于Glebe的公寓，该公寓可以欣赏到海港大桥和城 市天际线美景。 房产记录显示，该公寓上一次交易是在2011年，当时的成交价为43.5万澳元。 （图片来源：《悉尼晨锋报》） （图片来源：《悉尼晨锋报》） Mastronardo表示，该公寓的一大亮点在于这里的景致、位置和停车位。 这套位于14/12 Avona Ave一居室公寓的指导价起初为63万澳元，之后调整为65.5 万澳元，底价为71万澳 元。 BresicWhitney Balmain的Ada Mastronardo表示，一周前收到了71万澳元的报价， 这也是业主的底价。 该公寓位于一栋经典砖石建筑内，挂牌广告中称"它的维护成本很低"，内含复古蓝 色厨房和一个可尽 赏城市美景的阳台。 该公寓吸引了23名注册竞拍者，其中6人竞争激烈。起拍价为70万澳元，之后以不 同幅度递增。 最终买 家击败了来自悉尼各地的其他首次置业者和投资者。 她说，无论利率是否下调或维持不变，市场表现都取决于具体的房产，"入门级房 产的表现都十分出 色"。 周六，悉尼共有4 ...

在距离珀斯东南方向一小时车程的一个普通区，一栋位于187平地块上的小型三居室住宅，预计售价接 近70万澳元。 而就在三年前，这栋位于Piara Waters的房子售价仅约45万澳元。 据澳洲新闻集团报道，这种既惊人又令人沮丧的涨幅，但房地产经纪人Aman Singh 直言，这是珀斯住 房市场的"新常态"。 在全澳范围内，三居两卫住宅的平均地块面积达450多平方米，是这栋房子的两倍 多，这样的价格涨幅 更显惊人。 Singh的直白表述进一步证明，当前市场不仅失控，更是让大多数首次购房者望而却步。 "拿出你最好的报价，可能不会有第二次机会了，"他强调道，许多房产都收到了多 个报价，成交价往 往比要价高出3万至4万澳元。 实际上，房价飙升并非Piara Waters独有。 在这个新兴的混凝土住宅开发区内，房屋间距仅有几厘米，绿地也十分稀少。 （图片来源：News） Waters说道，"你能看到需求有多旺盛，这个价位的房子目前仅此一套，所以大家 都在抢。Piara Waters 目前的情况，核心就是供需关系。" Singh表示，约70%至75%的意向购房者是首次置业者，其中 不少人已流露出沮丧情绪。 "首次购房者更容 ...

Global Market Overview - The report indicates that global markets are under pressure due to current tariff issues, leading to increased volatility. Major US stock indices experienced pullbacks, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all declining [1][3] - The TAMAMA technology index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has risen to 35.1, exceeding the 35 mark, indicating a high valuation. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio has further increased to 51.8, while the Nasdaq's P/E ratio stands at 42.5, both suggesting potential overvaluation [1][12] - The report highlights that the Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is at 38.12, significantly above historical averages, indicating that various sectors such as finance, consumer, communication services, and industrials may face corrections due to high valuations and economic uncertainties [1][12] US Market Performance - The S&P 500 index, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw declines of 0.31%, 0.08%, and 1.02% respectively during the week [3][12] - Within the S&P 500, the energy sector had the highest increase at 2.48%, while the financial sector experienced the largest decline at 1.91% [12][16] European Market Performance - European markets showed mixed results, with the German DAX index increasing by 1.97%, while other indices like the UK FTSE 100 and French CAC40 also saw modest gains [9][10] - The report anticipates potential corrections in major European indices such as the CAC40, FTSE 100, DAX, and others due to high price-to-book ratios and economic pressures [1][9] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index all increased, with respective gains of 0.93%, 0.91%, and 2.07% [4][24] - The report notes that the Hong Kong market is expected to experience further differentiation, with low-valuation assets that are less impacted by trade issues presenting structural buying opportunities amidst volatility [1][39] Emerging Markets Performance - Emerging markets displayed varied performance, with the Ho Chi Minh Index rising by 5.1%, while the Brazilian IBOVESPA index fell by 3.59% [11][39] - The report suggests that emerging markets may also face corrections due to economic fundamentals and uncertainties stemming from US trade policies [1][39] Key Economic Data - The report mentions that in May 2025, the Eurozone retail sales index grew by 1.8%, down from 2.7% previously, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [4][43] - In June 2025, Germany's CPI year-on-year growth was 2%, slightly lower than the previous 2.1%, while France's CPI increased to 1% from 0.7% [40][43]

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 新房成交继续降温，等待政策发力 证券研究报告 高频经济跟踪周报 20250712 需求：新房成交环比下滑，汽车消费边际回落 （1）地产方面，本周 20 城商品房成交面积环比大幅回落，同比下降，明 显低于季节性水平，高能级城市新房成交同比跌幅扩大。此外，重点城市 二手房成交面积环比延续下降。 当前地产供需两端维持偏弱表现，下半年地产宽松政策或仍需积极发力， 如核心城市限购进一步松绑、下调住房贷款利率、降低首付比例等措施， 释放改善性住房需求。 若年内政策力度强于预期，地产销售同比降幅有望收窄，地产投资下行斜 率或逐步放缓；若年内政策力度不及预期，地产市场或仍处于低位磨底状 态，销售量价维持偏弱表现，地产投资跌幅可能小幅扩大。 （2）消费方面，乘用车零售日均销量和批发日均销量环比下降，观影消费 低于季节性，出行表现有所分化，全国迁徙规模指数环周上升，一线城市 地铁客运量环周回落。 价格：农产品价格企稳，国际原油价格上涨 （1）CPI 方面，农产品批发价格 200 指数环周上涨 0.4%，猪肉、蔬菜价格 上升，鸡蛋、水果价格下降。（2）PPI 方面，大宗商品价格有所分化，国 际原油价格上 ...

7月11日，原千亿房企阳光城的总部大厦"滨江国际广场1号楼"在阿里资产处置平台上开拍，起拍价为 14.57亿元，但因在24小时竞拍期限内无人出价，于7月12日宣告流拍。 阿里资产处置平台显示，滨江国际广场1号楼原名为"阳光控股大厦"，坐落于上海市杨浦区黄浦江畔， 毗邻杨树浦路和东方渔人码头，拥有一线黄浦江景色。 该标的用途为写字楼，占用土地面积达1.86万平方米，建筑面积为4.77万平方米。 2012年，闽系房企阳光城集团将管理总部乔迁上海，开始以长三角为根基，加速布局全国。2014年、 2015年，阳光城在杨浦滨江连拿"地王"，不断创造区域楼面价新纪录。2017年，阳光城集团及其母公司 阳光控股一起将总部迁到了杨浦滨江北外滩，当时，阳光控股凭借236.7亿美元的年营收首次跻身"世界 500强"。2017年8月，一场盛大的乔迁仪式曾在滨江国际广场1号楼大厅内隆重举行，当时阳光城集团董 事局主席林腾蛟、阳光控股董事长何玫、阳光城集团董事林贻辉等一众高管共庆乔迁之喜。 当年的盛景已成过去式。此次拍卖，已经是滨江国际广场1号楼第三次被摆上货架，也是第三次流拍。 这栋大厦首次流拍发生在2024年1月，当时的起拍价是2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Shenzhen is experiencing a stark contrast between the new housing and second-hand housing markets, resembling a roller coaster ride with significant differences in trends [1]. Group 1: New Housing Market - On July 7, a land auction in Longhua District saw intense competition, with China Overseas Land & Investment winning the bid for 2.37 billion yuan, resulting in a floor price of approximately 38,975 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 40.74% [3]. - The new housing market is characterized by high premium rates in land auctions, and certain key cities are beginning to show signs of price increases [5]. - The land in Longhua has a low plot ratio of 2.8, indicating potential for developing high-density residential communities, which could lead to higher living quality and better utilization rates compared to existing residential areas [6]. Group 2: Second-Hand Housing Market - As of July 7, there were 75,169 valid second-hand housing listings in Shenzhen, an increase of 1,311 from the previous week, marking a new high in available inventory [4]. - The average transaction cycle for second-hand homes in June was 244 days, which, while a decrease of 13 days from the previous month, remains high compared to the same period last year [4]. - The second-hand housing market is under pressure, with sellers resorting to price reductions to attract buyers, as the new housing market offers better value propositions in terms of location, plot ratio, and living quality [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The contrasting trends between new and second-hand housing markets are leading to a challenging environment for second-hand properties, which struggle to compete on price and quality [8]. - Despite the challenges, the volume of second-hand housing transactions has increased significantly, with a 30.7% year-on-year growth in contracts recorded in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [11]. - The increase in second-hand transactions may stimulate demand for new homes, creating a cycle that could benefit both markets [12]. Group 4: Overall Market Strategy - The overall strategy for stabilizing the real estate market involves managing land inventory in lower-tier cities while providing quality improvement products in first- and second-tier cities [14]. - The importance of property liquidity is emphasized, as a gradual price decline across multiple transactions can mitigate risks associated with significant price drops [15]. - The current market dynamics suggest that while second-hand prices are declining, the volume of transactions remains relatively stable, indicating potential for future recovery [16].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yuhua Development (000514), is focusing on diversifying its business model and enhancing its market competitiveness through various strategic initiatives in response to the evolving real estate market in Chongqing [2][3][5]. Group 1: Business Development and Strategy - Yuhua Development is a state-controlled listed company in Chongqing, actively constructing an industrial investment system and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading [2]. - The company operates in multiple sectors including real estate development, property management, exhibition services, municipal facilities, and commercial leasing, which helps mitigate risks associated with real estate market fluctuations [2]. - The company has acquired the operating rights of the Shihuang Tunnel for 20 years, expiring in June 2026, which is expected to contribute to its revenue [2]. Group 2: Market Environment - The Chongqing real estate market is adapting to central government policies, optimizing housing credit policies, and enhancing the housing rental market, which has boosted confidence among enterprises [3]. Group 3: Project Development - As of December 31, 2024, the company has four ongoing and for-sale projects, with three remaining after a subsidiary's change in status in Q1 2025 [4]. - The company has established a full-cycle project operation plan to ensure objective decision-making and reasonable planning of development pace [4]. Group 4: Future Direction and Transformation - The company aims to position itself as a city development service provider, focusing on a business model centered around "residential + commercial" [5]. - To counteract the seasonality and cyclicality of the real estate business, the company is actively developing supporting and expanding businesses, including exhibition services, asset management, property management, and area development [5]. Group 5: Financing and Capital Increase - In August 2024, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accepted the company's application for a private placement of shares, with the total fundraising amount adjusted from "not exceeding 700 million yuan" to "not exceeding 640 million yuan" [6]. - The company is currently progressing normally with the related work for the issuance of shares to specific targets [6]. Group 6: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 77.04 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.64%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 786.39% to 180 million yuan [7]. - The company recorded a debt ratio of 42.61% and an investment income of 245 million yuan, with financial expenses amounting to 12.06 million yuan and a gross profit margin of 18.39% [7].