——2025 年 9 月美联储议息会议点评 本报告导读： 宏 观 研 究 美联储开启预防式降息周期 [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) 2025 年 9 月美联储议息会议降息 25BP 基本符合预期，新一轮预防式降息周期正式 开启，预计年内仍有两次降息，但长期降息节奏仍旧偏缓。预计预防式降息周期下， 后续美债利率下行放缓，美股仍有持续支撑，美元指数先下后震荡。 投资要点： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.18 | | 0755-23976659 | | --- | --- | | | wanghao8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 收支有待提振 2025.09.17 美国就业：是否有失速风险 2025.09.15 总量需加力，结构有亮点 2025.09.15 信贷与货币：分化延续 2025.09.12 "存款搬家"：如 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened lower on September 18, with significant fluctuations in the semiconductor sector leading to early gains [1] - By the afternoon, all three indices continued to decline, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 2% at one point [1] Sector Performance - The financial sector experienced a broad decline, while the non-ferrous metals industry fell sharply following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [1] - Real estate, oil, and media sectors showed weakness, whereas the robotics and semiconductor supply chain saw a pullback after initial gains [1] - The SPD and tourism sectors performed well in the afternoon, showing resilience against the overall market trend [1] Index Closing Figures - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.15% at 3831.66 points [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index increased by 0.72% to 1380.35 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.06% to 13075.66 points [1] - The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.64% to 3095.85 points [1] Trading Volume - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 31,352 billion yuan, an increase of 7,584 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai market accounted for 13,660 billion yuan, up 3,593 billion yuan from the previous day, while the Shenzhen market saw a volume of 17,692 billion yuan [1] Stock Movement - A total of 1,026 stocks rose, while 4,348 stocks fell, with 52 stocks remaining flat [1] - There were 80 stocks with gains exceeding 9%, and 6 stocks with losses exceeding 9% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant surge on September 17, with major tech stocks like Baidu, NIO, and Meituan seeing substantial gains, driven by positive sentiment and upgraded ratings from foreign investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose over 3.6%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by more than 1.4% [1]. - Alibaba's stock opened 2.74% higher, reaching a nearly four-year high, contributing to the total market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks returning to 3 trillion HKD [2]. - The overall market saw a surge, with notable increases in stocks such as Baidu (up 16.08%), NIO (up 9.60%), and Meituan (up 5.68%) [3]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the valuation logic for tech stocks may be changing, with many foreign investors significantly upgrading ratings for major blue-chip companies [1]. - Citigroup's report maintains a buy rating for Tencent, setting a target price of 735 HKD per share, based on a comprehensive valuation method [4]. - Goldman Sachs raised Alibaba's cloud valuation from 36 USD to 43 USD per ADS, adjusting the target price for both US and Hong Kong stocks [4]. Group 3: Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index has increased over 30% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500, which has seen less than 20% growth [5]. - The market sentiment indicator from Huatai Securities shows a slight recovery from panic but remains below neutral, indicating a positive medium-term outlook [5]. - Dongwu Securities notes that the Hong Kong market is in a trend of oscillating upward, with potential for further gains depending on corporate fundamentals [6].

Consumption - Service consumption continues to decline, while durable goods consumption shows weakness[5] - Food and clothing consumption sees seasonal increases, but overall demand remains weak[5] - Movie attendance and box office revenue drop to historical lows, indicating reduced consumer interest[6] Investment - Real estate sector remains weak, with new home sales not showing sustained improvement despite policy optimizations in major cities[15] - Infrastructure investment shows marginal recovery, but overall funding remains below last year's levels[15] Trade and Export - Domestic export prices continue to decline, with a decrease of 2.1% in export freight rates, indicating a retreat from technical rush shipments[22] - Port activity increases with the upcoming Christmas stocking season, reflecting a rise in overseas demand[22] Production - Overall production heat is recovering, with significant increases in coal consumption and steel production rates[25] - The operating rate for PTA has rebounded significantly, driven by increased demand in the textile sector[27] Prices and Inflation - CPI remains stable, while PPI shows a general decline, with industrial prices mostly decreasing[37] - Cement prices have dropped by 2.0% due to weak construction demand, while copper and aluminum prices have increased by 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively[37] Liquidity - The 10-year government bond yield rises to 1.86%, the highest level in 2025, reflecting strong equity market performance and improved inflation data[39] - The overall liquidity remains stable, with a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan through reverse repos by the central bank[39] Risks - Trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical risks pose significant threats to market stability[46]

Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales show marginal improvement, with a 2.3% year-on-year increase in transaction area for 30 major cities as of September 14, 2025. First-tier cities saw a significant increase of 13.2% in transaction area [7][10] - Durable goods consumption is declining, with a 10.0% year-on-year decrease in retail sales of passenger cars during the first week of September. Air conditioning production for both domestic and international markets also saw declines of 6.3% and 16.6% respectively [8][12] Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand remains weak, but manufacturing activity has improved. The operating rate for manufacturing increased significantly, with a 6.8% rise in the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants [30][34] - The price of rebar has decreased by 1.5%, while the operating rate of blast furnaces has increased by 3.5%, indicating a rebound in steel production despite weak demand [16][17] Upstream Resources - Coal prices remain resilient, with a slight increase of 0.1% in the price of thermal coal as of September 12, 2025. Supply expectations are tight due to ongoing industry consolidation [35][36] - Prices for non-ferrous metals and crude oil have risen, with gold prices increasing by 0.9% and Brent crude oil prices rising by 2.3% due to heightened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [37][38] Logistics and Passenger Flow - Long-distance passenger transport is experiencing seasonal declines, while urban transport activity has increased. Subway ridership in major cities rose by 3.6% week-on-week [42][48] - Freight transport shows marginal improvement, with highway truck traffic increasing by 6.2% and railway freight volume rising by 1.8% [53][54] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has increased by 7.4%, indicating a significant rise in dry bulk shipping rates [55][57]

周二，百度(BIDU.US)涨逾3%，报118.54美元。消息面上，9月15日，招商局集团与百度在深圳签署战 略合作框架协议。双方将围绕大模型、云计算等前沿人工智能技术，在科创产业、交通物流、综合金 融、地产园区等领域开展合作，实现资源共享、优势互补、互利共赢、共同发展。 此次战略合作协议的签署，标志着招商局集团与百度集团的合作迈入了新的阶段。作为拥有深厚产业根 基的百年央企与全球领先的人工智能公司，双方的强强联合，将推动前沿AI技术与实体经济的深度融 合，为中国产业的智能化升级注入强大动能。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a rebound in the afternoon, with all three major indices closing higher, indicating a positive sentiment among investors [1]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87 points, with a slight increase of 0.04% and a trading volume of 989.79 billion yuan [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index finished at 13063.97 points, rising by 0.45% with a trading volume of 1351.62 billion yuan [1]. - The ChiNext Index ended at 3087.04 points, up by 0.68% and a trading volume of 638.22 billion yuan [1]. Sector Performance - Sectors such as insurance, banking, agriculture, and electricity saw declines, indicating potential weaknesses in these areas [1]. - Conversely, sectors including logistics, automotive, textiles and apparel, real estate, and home appliances showed gains, reflecting stronger performance and investor interest [1]. - Emerging themes such as humanoid robots, PEEK materials, and Nvidia-related concepts were notably active, suggesting innovation-driven investment opportunities [1].

A股下一阶段大概率将延续震荡上行的走势，但需关注短期波动风险。科技自立、内需消费及红利股方向具备中长期配置价值。（1）趋势节奏上：９月业 绩为锚，10月政策为帆。展望下一阶段，短期预计市场在偏高中枢运行，经历前期上涨行情后，市场或将阶段性呈现震荡整固特点。但当前市场成交维持活 跃，资金面持续驱动叠加政策预期升温，为市场行情提供支撑。 技术面8.3 资金面4.0 （2）未来关注方向：短期关注补涨机会。中长期聚焦三条主线，一是供需格局改善与行业盈利修复带动的"反内卷"概念，以及估值具备安全边际的红利资 产，配置逻辑依然清晰。二是内需消费方向：政策呵护下的大消费领域具备投资价值，建议关注服务消费领域低估值标的。三是科技自立方向：AI、机器 人、半导体、军工等板块受益于国内高技术产业的快速发展。 快递行业"反内卷"步伐加快。近期，在电商重镇广东、浙江两地，多家快递公司对电商客户上调快递费用。除浙江义乌、广东外，业内对福建、安徽、江 苏、山东等地也有涨价预期。记者从浙江地区的部分快递网点与电商商家处了解到，7月底、8月初以来，电商快递价格确实有不同程度的上调。快递费用调 涨，对特价快递与小件产生的影响较为明显，不过目前 ...

Group 1: Summary of the Core View - The current economic readings are rather dull, with the overall production growth slowing down in August. The single - month economic data is prone to fluctuations, but the internal economic momentum continues to recover [4][5][7] - The contradiction in current asset pricing does not lie in the fundamentals. The "stock - strong, bond - weak" situation is the result of institutional re - allocation of stock and bond assets, and single - month data fluctuations will not change the current risk - preference environment or the expected direction of institutional asset re - allocation [6] - When dealing with the bond market, one should adopt a trading - based approach, focus on the opportunities of structural term spreads and variety spreads, as the bond market remains a "weak asset" and single - month economic data is unlikely to change the trend [9] Group 2: Industry Data Analysis Industrial Industry - In the upstream of the industrial industry, the production of non - ferrous metal processing, non - metallic products, and chemical raw material products has accelerated year - on - year. In the mid - and downstream equipment and consumer goods manufacturing, the output growth of the pharmaceutical and special equipment production has accelerated. The growth rate of industrial added value in other industries has declined compared with last month [4] - In August, the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.5 percentage points lower than that of last month. Among the three major sectors, the production growth rate of the mining industry has rebounded, while the year - on - year growth rates of the manufacturing and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water have declined [7] Service Industry - The growth rate of service industry production has slowed down. In August, the service industry production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.2 percentage points lower than that of last month. The prosperity of producer services such as information technology, finance, and leasing is higher than the overall service industry [4] Investment - The growth rate of fixed - asset investment has slowed down. In August, the completed amount of fixed - asset investment decreased by 7.15% year - on - year, 1.81 percentage points lower than that of last month. Among them, real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments decreased by 19.5%, 6.4%, and 1.3% year - on - year respectively [8] - Real estate sales and investment continue to bottom out, with the decline in sales prices narrowing. In August, the sales volume and sales area of commercial housing decreased by 14% and 10.6% year - on - year respectively. The real estate new construction area and completion area decreased by 20.3% and 21.4% year - on - year respectively [8] Consumption - In terms of consumption, catering consumption is recovering, while commodity consumption has slowed down, which may be affected by the "national subsidy" rhythm adjustment in some provinces. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.3 percentage points lower than that of last month [8] - Among commodity consumption, the year - on - year growth rates of gold and silver jewelry, household appliances, and communication equipment have changed significantly compared with last month. The sales volume of gold and silver jewelry may be related to the rapid rise in precious metal prices, while the slowdown of household appliances and communication equipment may be affected by the "national subsidy" rhythm adjustment after the "618" promotion [8] Group 3: Impact of Economic Data - After the release of economic data, bond yields first declined and then rose. The bond market has experienced an oversold rebound recently. After the release of economic data, the long - term bond yields rebounded, but then rose again [7] - Single - month economic data is affected by policy rhythm changes and structural transformation, and its fluctuations are unlikely to change the overall trend. Although the overall economic data in August is not outstanding, the internal economic momentum continues to recover [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,463.48 points, up 0.29%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.11% to 6,055.47 points, indicating a positive market sentiment with specific sectors performing well [1] Sector Performance - The automotive, professional retail, and coal sectors led the gains in the market, reflecting strong investor interest and potential growth opportunities in these areas [1] - Conversely, the household appliances and supplies, real estate, and industrial support sectors experienced declines, suggesting potential challenges or reduced investor confidence in these segments [1]