Core Viewpoint - The three major stock indices closed mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.3% and 0.57% respectively. The STAR Market Index dropped by 2.63% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The liquor sector experienced a surge, with Kweichow Moutai rising over 8% [1] - Gold stocks continued their strong performance, with multiple stocks reaching new highs [1] - AI application themes were active, particularly in the short drama and gaming sectors, leading the market [1] Group 2: Sector Movements - Real estate, insurance, and banking sectors showed notable gains [1] - Semiconductor, computing hardware, commercial aerospace, and humanoid robot concept stocks experienced significant pullbacks [1] Group 3: Market Activity - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 32,594 billion yuan, an increase of 2,671 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 3,500 stocks in the three markets closed in the red [1]

Market Overview - The market showed significant divergence today, with traditional blue-chip sectors like liquor and real estate surging, leading to a substantial rise in the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, while technology sectors such as semiconductors and chips weakened, resulting in notable declines in the STAR Market and ChiNext Index [1] - The total market turnover reached 3.2 trillion yuan, an increase of over 200 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with more than 3,500 stocks declining [1] Key Signals - Three major changes in the market were noted: 1. The simultaneous rise of real estate and liquor stocks indicates potential structural volatility as the market rotates towards these rebound assets [1] 2. The recent surge in commodities, including gold, reflects liquidity trends, while cryptocurrencies have remained relatively subdued, suggesting inflation expectations may significantly impact AI and computing power [1] 3. The unexpected performance of government bonds, particularly the strong showing of 30-year treasury futures, indicates a complex narrative in the market, suggesting that the rotation is not strictly binary [1] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks, particularly liquor and retail, saw a significant afternoon rally, with Kweichow Moutai rising by 8% and several stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - Precious metals and oil and gas stocks experienced volatility but ultimately rallied, with China Gold achieving five consecutive limit-ups and Hunan Gold four consecutive limit-ups [1] - AI application concepts surged, with multiple stocks like Sai Group and Tiandi Online hitting the daily limit [1] - The banking sector also saw gains, with Qingdao Bank hitting the daily limit, while semiconductor, military, and automotive sectors faced the largest declines [1] Fund Flow - Major funds focused on sectors such as advertising, software development, and liquor, with significant net inflows into stocks like BlueFocus, Kweichow Moutai, and iFlytek [3] Future Outlook - Short-term market trends indicate a continued oscillation, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to maintain an upward trajectory, although space for growth before the Spring Festival appears limited [2][8] - The market sentiment is supported by a weakening US dollar and ongoing monetary easing, which may provide a conducive environment for further capital inflow [7] - The upcoming earnings reports from A-share companies and North American tech giants are anticipated to have a more pronounced impact on market structure [6]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 顺周期板块后续表现或仍值得期待 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 当前大宗商品的轮动行情契合"避险资产、工业需求、能源传导、民生终端" 的路径。2025 年至今，贵金属率先开启牛市，成为周期行情的先行者；随后工业 金属接棒，铜价创下历史新高，碳酸锂上演 V 型反转，背后是新能源、AI 算力等 新兴产业的刚性需求与供给端约束的共振。如今有色板块的上涨，正是这一轮动 逻辑的中期演绎，而按照传导顺序，能源化工与煤炭或将承接行情扩散。 在全球流动性宽松预期下，随着反内卷政策持续推进，国内稳增长政策持续 发力，经济供需格局有望改善，复苏预期强化，直接利好对经济敏感的板块，后 续经济数据（如 PPI）若持续改善，将验证复苏逻辑，驱动顺周期板块上行。可 逢低关注稀土、化工、煤炭、有色金属、基建、地产等板块，周期板块后续表现 或仍值得期待。 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 金 点 策 略 晨 报 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 周三晨报提醒，依托上证 50 ...

上周A股市场呈现结构性分化格局，宽基指数涨跌不一，资金偏好显著向中小盘、热门成长赛道倾斜。 行业上，建筑材料、地产、军工转强，化工、有色行情强化，银行、非银与通信指数回落。 近期中央汇金大额减持ETF稳定了权重指数，价值股走势偏弱，但市场交易热度不减，科技成长方向加 速轮动，实现了稳指数又不打压市场热度。 我们认为，资本市场监管越严格、审慎，反而有助于提高中国市场的可投资性，也更有助于中国资本市 场走的更长远，利于更多投资人分享转型发展与改革红利。无风险收益下沉、资本市场改革、经济结构 转型仍是构成转型行情的三大关键动力。 投资方向上，新兴科技是主线，价值股也有春天，关注细分龙头与A500指数。具体来看：1）科技成长 方向：全球AI算力需求仍处于需求旺盛上升期，推动半导体设备需求快速增长，全产业链迎来涨价 潮，可关注港股互联网/电子半导体/通信/军工，以及具备全球竞争优势的制造业出海（电力设备/机械 设备/汽车及零部件）等。2）非银金融方向：受益居民存款搬家与财富管理需求增长，资本市场改革提 振市场风险偏好，可关注保险/券商等。3）顺周期方向：估值与持仓处于低位，景气底部边际改善，受 益扩内需政策部署，可关注 ...

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a complex situation, with small-cap stocks undergoing corrections while large-cap indices remain stable, indicating no immediate risk in major indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 [1] - There has been a significant reduction in holdings by large investors, including substantial sell-offs of broad-based ETFs, leading to a volatile market environment where small-cap stocks fluctuate frequently [3] - The current market sentiment suggests that investors should avoid impulsive trading and instead wait patiently for a market turnaround, as many are likely to face emotional challenges during this period [3] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to continue a trend of upward fluctuations, with potential for a rebound in Hong Kong stocks followed by a catch-up in A-shares, particularly in sectors like real estate and finance [5] - The market is characterized as one of the most unpredictable in history, with a focus on undervalued blue-chip stocks rather than speculative small-cap stocks, which have historically led to losses for retail investors [5] - There is a likelihood of new highs being reached in the market, contingent on the behavior of large investors, with sectors such as banking, securities, insurance, and liquor poised for potential rebounds [7]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, 97% of nearly 4,370 actively managed equity funds achieved positive returns, with the highest return exceeding 230%, although 129 funds experienced a decline in net value, including six funds managed by Wang Mingxu, who significantly underperformed benchmarks [2][4][5]. Group 1: Fund Performance - Wang Mingxu managed eight funds, with six established before 2025 recording negative returns in that year, specifically: -16.31% for Guangfa Domestic Demand Growth A, -15.47% for Guangfa Value Advantage, -14.55% for Guangfa Value Selection A, -13.34% for Guangfa Ruiming Two-Year Holding A, -12.60% for Guangfa Steady Selection Six-Month Holding A, and -12.50% for Guangfa Balanced Selection A [4][7]. - The three-year performance of these six funds significantly lagged behind their benchmarks, with net value growth rates of -15.10% to -16.76%, underperforming benchmarks by 31.68 to 37.91 percentage points [5][7]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Holdings - The six funds managed by Wang Mingxu exhibited similar investment strategies, primarily focusing on sectors such as real estate, brokerage, high-end liquor, and city commercial banks, with attempts to invest in the internet data center industry [8][9]. - Despite a strategy that included reducing exposure to real estate and increasing stakes in city commercial banks and high-end liquor, the overall performance of these sectors was disappointing, with the liquor index declining by 6.67% in the first three quarters of 2025 [8]. Group 3: Management Scale and Response - Wang Mingxu's management scale has significantly decreased, dropping from 306.52 billion yuan in mid-2021 to 72.65 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [9]. - An inquiry was sent to Guangfa Fund regarding Wang Mingxu's performance and management issues, but no response was received by the time of reporting [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The mid - stream is continuously differentiating, and the prices of the upstream are warming up [1] - The production industry in Beijing encourages the development of value - added services based on commercial satellite data and the integration of the industrial chain [1] - The service industry will develop service trade, open up the service market, and promote the export of various services [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Upstream - In the non - ferrous metals sector, the price of nickel has rebounded [2] - In the agricultural sector, the prices of eggs and palm oil have rebounded [2] - In the energy sector, the price of liquefied natural gas has continued to rise [2] Mid - stream - In the chemical industry, the operating rates of PX and urea have remained at high levels [3] - In the energy industry, the coal consumption of power plants is at a low level [3] - In the infrastructure industry, the operating rate of road asphalt is at a low level [3] Downstream - In the real estate industry, the sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [3] - In the service industry, the number of domestic flights has continued to increase [3] Key Industry Price Indicators - Agricultural products: On January 26, the spot price of corn was 2267.1 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.13%; the spot price of eggs was 8.3 yuan/kg with a year - on - year increase of 5.48%; the spot price of palm oil was 9000.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 3.16%; the spot price of cotton was 15997.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 1.01%; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.7 yuan/kg with a year - on - year increase of 0.81% [38] - Non - ferrous metals: On January 26, the spot price of copper was 102426.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 1.27%; the spot price of zinc was 24682.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 1.15%; the spot price of aluminum was 24040.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.63%; the spot price of nickel was 153883.3 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 5.66%; the spot price of aluminum was 17031.3 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.29% [38] - Ferrous metals: On January 26, the spot price of rebar was 3214.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.55%; the spot price of iron ore was 815.6 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1.08%; the spot price of wire rod was 3425.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1.58%; the spot price of glass was 13.1 yuan/square meter with a year - on - year increase of 1.56% [38] - Non - metals: On January 26, the spot price of natural rubber was 16016.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 3.50%; the China Plastics City Price Index was 777.6 with a year - on - year increase of 0.30% [38] - Energy: On January 26, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 61.1 US dollars/barrel with a year - on - year increase of 2.92%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 65.1 US dollars/barrel with a year - on - year increase of 1.47%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3668.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 4.38%; the coal price was 806.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.37% [38] - Chemical industry: On January 26, the spot price of PTA was 5247.5 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 4.75%; the spot price of polyethylene was 6846.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.54%; the spot price of urea was 1745.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1.27%; the spot price of soda ash was 1202.9 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.94% [38] - Real estate: On January 26, the national cement price index was 133.5 with a year - on - year decrease of 0.75%; the building materials composite index was 114.9 with a year - on - year decrease of 0.74%; the national concrete price index was 90.2 with a year - on - year change of 0.00% [38]

Core Viewpoint - UBS's report indicates that Hong Kong residents exhibit a more cautious sentiment regarding investment and consumption intentions than expected, with a decrease in the number of respondents holding a positive outlook on the economic prospects for the next 12 months [1] Group 1: Economic Sentiment - Respondents' financial situations have remained stable over the past 12 months, but their positive outlook on Hong Kong's economic prospects has diminished, which has suppressed consumption intentions [1] - The most concerning issues for respondents include rising living costs and job security [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - Investment intentions have remained relatively stable, supported by the positive momentum in Hong Kong's financial sector, which is expected to bolster overall economic and labor demand [1] - The robust performance of Hong Kong and A-shares is anticipated to create a positive wealth effect, suggesting that resident confidence may improve by 2026 [1] Group 3: Sector Recommendations - UBS maintains a positive outlook on the real estate and financial sectors, removing Henderson Land Development (00012) from its preferred stock list and replacing it with Sino Land Company (00083) due to higher dividend visibility [1] - Other stocks included in the preferred list are AIA Group (01299), Swire Properties (01972), Galaxy Entertainment (00027), and Wynn Macau (01128) [1]

房地产市场进入调整下半场，跌幅收窄但对政策敏感。总需求扩张带来 的就业和收入改善是房价见底的关键，当前静态持有房产与利率相比仍 存在倒挂。 地产股定价宜采用两分法，即在手项目隐含净利润流加上未来持续拿地 补货隐含利润贴现，更贴近 DCF 模型，有效反映长期价值。房价下跌幅 度、速度及库存结构决定公司盈利能力。 股市底部通常领先于楼市底部，优秀龙头地产公司的股价底部已相对明 确，未来三年内，若房价跌幅趋缓，这些公司股价具有上涨空间。 当前非银行业股票上涨逻辑是资本市场慢牛趋势，逆周期调节机制降低 市场波动率。保险行业通过增配权益应对低利率周期，券商行业受益于 业务集中度提升。 银行板块近期调整受资金面影响，但中期维度内权益市场上行方向和银 行基本面稳定性不变，优质银行股估值已超跌，配置时点临近。 在资本市场慢牛假设下，保险和券商长周期受益，建议跟随监管逆周期 调节增配。银行股 PB 估值全面破净，超跌阶段 PB 估值和 ROE 匹配度 将反弹。 上市银行 2025 年业绩快报显示营收增速回升，净息差企稳及利净收入 增速回升是主要因素。市场聚焦 2026 年业绩展望，看好优质城商行， 推荐江浙、山东、川渝地区头部 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds declined last week, with 6 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $1.906 billion. The secondary market showed a slight increase [1][5]. - US Treasury yields fluctuated upward. As of January 23, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.8 bps to 3.594%, and the 10 - year yield rose 0.23 bps to 4.2252% [3]. - Various macro - economic events occurred, including GDP growth in different countries, central bank policy decisions, and changes in economic forecasts [34][39][40]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Primary Market - Last week, the primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds decreased. Six new bonds were issued, with a total scale of about $1.906 billion. The Hong Kong MTR Corporation issued two green bonds worth a total of A$2 billion, the largest issuance scale of the week. Shui On Land issued a $300 million bond with a coupon rate of 9.75%, the highest - priced new bond of the week [1][7]. 3.2 Secondary Market - **Index Performance**: The Chinese US - dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) rose 0.15% week - on - week, and the emerging market US - dollar bond index rose 0.20%. The investment - grade index closed at 203.1452, up 0.15% for the week, and the high - yield index closed at 161.8156, up 0.18%. The Chinese US - dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) rose 0.11% week - on - week [5][9]. - **Industry Performance**: Different industries had varying yield changes. For example, the healthcare industry's yield decreased by 40.2 bps, while the real - estate industry's yield increased significantly [19]. - **Rating Performance**: Investment - grade names generally rose, with A - grade weekly yields down 5.0 bps and BBB - grade down 2.7 bps. High - yield names mostly fell, with BB - grade yields down 6.6 bps and DD+ to NR - grade yields up about 7.9 bps [21]. - **Hot Events**: Panhai Holdings failed to repay due interest - bearing debts totaling 34.06 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025. Sunac China Holdings had new overdue borrowings and 19 new acts of dishonesty [25][26]. - **Rating Adjustments**: The ratings of several companies were adjusted, such as the upgrade of Qingdao Haifa Group's issuer rating to A+ and the downgrade of Wanda Commercial's family rating to Ca [28][29]. 3.3 US Treasury Quotes - A table shows the quotes of US Treasuries, including the code, maturity date, current price, yield to maturity, and coupon rate, with maturities over 6 months and sorted by yield to maturity from high to low [30]. 3.4 Macro Data Tracking - As of January 23, the US Treasury yields were as follows: 1 - year (T1) at 3.5083%, down 2.66 bps from the previous week; 2 - year (T2) at 3.594%, up 0.8 bps; 5 - year (T5) at 3.8245%, up 0.93 bps; 10 - year (T10) at 4.2252%, up 0.23 bps [35]. 3.5 Macro News - US GDP in Q3 2025 had an annualized quarterly growth of 4.4%, higher than the initial value. Trump reached an agreement framework on Greenland, and tariffs would not take effect. Most economists expected the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter. The IMF raised the economic forecasts for China and the world in 2026. Japan's central bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.75%, and South Korea's GDP growth in 2025 was 1%, half of the previous year's rate [34][35][39].