中信证券：5月A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主题轮动的特征；中信建投：操作上以震荡区间低买高卖波 段策略为主；申万宏源：消费和科技都是景气方向。 ②中信建投：操作上以震荡区间低买高卖波段策略为主 中信建投认为，展望后市，只要情绪指数处于50以上，且全A指数处于年线和半年线上方，都应该维持 战略性乐观判断，配置半仓以上仓位。整体看，当前市场已经进入窄幅震荡区间，情绪指数波动带来的 右侧买卖信号作用下降，建议投资者更关注情绪指数整体水平和分项指标的提示意义，操作上以震荡区 间低买高卖波段策略为主。 ③平安证券：政策呵护、内需韧性与科技自主可控将继续支撑A股市场向上空间 平安证券指出，综合来看，五一假期出行旅游、观影消费数据亮眼，伴随国内政策加速落地显效，消费 对经济增长的推动力将持续强化，同时AI科技革命与自主可控逻辑不变，政策呵护、内需韧性与科技 自主可控将继续支撑A股市场向上空间。结构上建议关注两条主线：一是国产科技自主可控（新质生产 力、先进制造、国防军工等）；二是受益于扩内需政策支持，基本面预期修复且具备估值性价比的内循 环消费优质资产。 ④申万宏源：消费和科技都是景气方向 申万宏源表示，维持二季度震荡市判断。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a high probability of maintaining rates in May due to strong employment data and easing inflation pressures [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May exceeds 96%, indicating a strong consensus in the market [3]. - April's non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, significantly surpassing the expected 138,000, reflecting a robust labor market [3]. - The March PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-over-year, with core PCE dropping to 2.6%, suggesting reduced short-term pressure for rate hikes [3]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - Recent tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve have emerged, with President Trump suggesting that the Fed should lower rates, which could undermine the Fed's independence [3][4]. - The upcoming press conference is crucial for understanding Fed Chair Powell's stance on inflation, economic outlook, and political pressures [4]. Group 3: Market Implications - A hawkish signal from Powell could lead to a rebound in the dollar index, putting short-term pressure on the Chinese yuan, while long-term trends will depend on domestic economic resilience [5]. - If the Fed signals a stable liquidity environment without aggressive rate hikes, technology stocks may continue to perform well, driven by AI trends [5]. - Gold prices are sensitive to interest rates; maintaining current rates could enhance its appeal as a safe-haven asset, while oil prices will depend on the Fed's economic outlook [5]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Current market expectations indicate a 35% probability of a rate cut in June, suggesting that most believe the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach [5]. - The focus should be on whether the Fed's policy logic shifts from "anti-inflation priority" to "balancing growth and inflation," which will influence asset allocation strategies in the coming months [5].

Group 1 - The overall performance of A-share listed companies in 2024 shows stability and a trend towards new development, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange reporting a total operating revenue of 49.57 trillion yuan and a net profit of 4.35 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.9% [1] - In the Shanghai main board, 80% of companies achieved profitability, with 40% experiencing year-on-year net profit growth, and 78 companies turning losses into profits [1] - The Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Board reported operating revenue of 14,221.7 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.24%, and a net profit of 475.23 billion yuan, where nearly 70% of companies saw revenue growth [1] Group 2 - The structure of companies on the Shanghai main board has been continuously optimized, with emerging industries such as electronics, communications, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles accounting for 40% of the total, indicating a shift from traditional industries like finance and energy [2] - The Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Board has maintained a focus on innovation, with a median R&D investment to revenue ratio of 12.6%, leading all A-share sectors [2] - In the Shenzhen market, total R&D investment exceeded 760 billion yuan in 2024, with 410 companies having an R&D intensity exceeding 10% [2]

2025 年 5 月 1 日 总量研究 关税滞胀效应显现，美国经济增速转负 ——2025 年一季度美国经济数据点评 | | 要点 | | --- | --- | | 作者 | | | | 事件： | | 分析师：高瑞东 | 2025 年 4 月 30 日，美国经济分析局公布 2025 年一季度 GDP 数据初值： | | 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 | 【1】一季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值-0.3%，预期+0.3%，前值+2.4%； | | gaoruidong@ebscn.com | 【2】一季度实际个人消费支出季率初值+1.8%，预期+1.2%，前值+4.0%； | | 联系人：周欣平 | | | 010-57378026 | 【3】一季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率初值+3.5%，预期+3.5%，前值+2.6%。 | | zhouxinping@ebscn.com | | | 相关研报 | 核心观点： | | 投资增速放缓，美国经济边际降温——2024 | | | 年四季度美国经济数据点评（2025-01- | 美国一季度 GDP 环比增速转负，消费环比增速 ...

Fundraising Activities - In April 2023, a total of 28 fundraising activities were reported, indicating a vibrant investment environment [3] - The "Lilly Asia VI Fund" has been established, becoming the largest market-oriented fundraising biopharmaceutical VC fund in recent years, with a total commitment exceeding RMB 40 billion [5] - Prologis launched its first data center income fund, raising approximately RMB 2.6 billion, marking a significant entry into the data center investment space [7] - The "Kaihui Future Fund" was established in collaboration with L'Oréal and the Shanghai Jing'an District government, focusing on the evolving beauty market in China [8] - A fund initiated by Anhui entrepreneurs raised RMB 3 billion to invest in local science and technology enterprises [10] - Blackstone's latest European real estate fund raised €9.8 billion (approximately $10.6 billion), setting a record for third-party capital commitments in Europe [11] - The "Sanofi-Kaihui Pharmaceutical Innovation Fund" was established with a management scale of approximately RMB 2 billion, focusing on clinical-stage innovative drug pipelines [14] - The "Hubei Highway Development Fund" was launched with a total scale of RMB 30 billion, aimed at supporting modern transportation systems [16] - The Shanghai Biopharmaceutical M&A Fund completed its first closing with a scale of RMB 5 billion, supporting the high-quality development of the biopharmaceutical industry [18] - Eurazeo Capital V successfully raised approximately €3 billion, focusing on high-growth sectors such as technology-enabled business services and healthcare [20] New Fund Establishments - The "Zero One Venture" announced the completion of a new RMB 500 million fund, focusing on intelligent manufacturing and cross-border ventures [22] - The "Hongyi Investment" established a fund in Yixing with a first closing amount of RMB 606 million, targeting new energy and new materials [24] - The "Shaanxi Financial and High-tech Investment Fund" completed its second closing, focusing on semiconductor and AI sectors with a total scale of RMB 1.198 billion [26] - The "Pudong Venture Capital Fund" was launched with a target scale of RMB 1 billion, focusing on the biopharmaceutical industry [28] - Wuxi announced a market-oriented AI industry fund with a total scale of RMB 1 billion to support AI development [30] - The "Changfei Angel Fund" was launched with a total scale of RMB 600 million, focusing on optoelectronic information and AI sectors [32] - The "Low-altitude Economy Fund" in Sichuan was established to invest in eVTOL manufacturing, marking the province's first fund in this area [34] - The "Fangxi Purple Peak Venture Capital Fund" was registered, focusing on technology transfer and innovation in Hefei [36] - The "Yaan Chuan Business Emerging Industry Fund" was established with a registered scale of RMB 100 million, targeting seed and angel investments [39] - The "Wuhan University of Technology Innovation Fund" was launched with an initial fundraising scale of RMB 1 billion [41] Strategic Collaborations - The "AI Angel Fund" was launched by Shanghai Jiao Tong University, focusing on early-stage AI startups with a total scale of RMB 300 million [42] - The "Conch Private Equity Fund" was established, focusing on strategic emerging industries such as new materials and renewable energy [44] - The "Nongyin AIC Fund" was established in Tianjin, focusing on new generation information technology and intelligent manufacturing [56] - The "Hunan Gongrong Dici Venture Capital Fund" was registered, marking the first AIC venture capital fund in Hunan with a scale of RMB 1 billion [58] - The "Qingdao AIC Equity Investment Fund" was established, marking the first AIC fund in the city, with a focus on various strategic emerging industries [60]

远东资信首席宏观研究员张林对经济观察报表示，2025年一季度经济增长5.4%，超出市场预期，政治 局会议对于当前经济工作较为有信心，措辞较为乐观。然而，会议也提到外部冲击加大，要求强化底线 思维，做好预案。所谓底线思维，一方面是要对外部风险的严峻性有充分的认知，另一方面是要采取对 冲政策，不能让经济运行下调幅度过大。 中诚信国际研究院执行院长袁海霞认为，此次政治局会议是国际贸易形势变化后的首次政治局会议，对 当前市场预期和后续经济工作安排具有重要的信号意义。中国一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，供需两端均 有所改善，反映出当前宏观经济延续了去年四季度以来持续向好的态势。但随着4月国际贸易环境的变 化，外需不确定性增加。会议指出，"我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固，外部冲击影响 加大"，这也意味着高层更加重视外部环境变化带来的不确定性和冲击。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，会议对外部冲击有了更为清晰的定性，即"外部环境急剧变化"。为 此，要"统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，同时"同国际社会一道，积极维护多边主义，反对单边霸 凌行径"。这意味着面对4月初美国实施的超高水平"对等关税"，中国不会选择妥协退 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall A-share market is expected to experience a decline in net profit for 2024, with a projected decrease of 3.0% for the entire market, 9.0% for the financial sector, and 14.2% for the non-financial sector, primarily due to significant impairment losses in the fourth quarter of 2024, particularly in the real estate and photovoltaic industries [1][2][3] Profit Growth - In 2024, the A-share market's net profit is forecasted to decline by 3.0%, with the financial sector showing a growth of 9.0% and the non-financial sector declining by 14.2%. The non-financial sector's revenue is expected to decrease slightly by 1%, with a significant drop in profit margins compared to 2023 [2][3] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a rebound in net profit for the A-share market, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% for the entire market, 2.9% for the financial sector, and 4.2% for the non-financial sector, indicating a recovery in downstream industries [3][4] Profitability Analysis - The return on equity (ROE) for non-financial A-shares has remained stable, marking 15 consecutive quarters of decline since Q2 2021. The marginal improvement in net profit margins is offset by a significant decline in asset turnover rates [1][15] - Industries such as electronics, home appliances, non-bank financials, and agriculture have shown consecutive improvements in ROE over the past two quarters [15][23] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Non-financial capital expenditure has been in negative growth for four consecutive quarters, but new economy sectors are seeing a rebound in capital expenditure growth. The total assets of non-financial enterprises have stabilized, with a notable increase in prepayments [2][16] - The free cash flow to equity ratio for non-financial companies has reached a historical high, supporting an increase in dividend payout ratios to 45% in 2024, with the dividend yield for the CSI 300 rising to 3.2% [2][18] Industry Performance - The first quarter of 2025 has highlighted strong performance in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, certain export chains, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), with significant year-on-year profit growth in these areas [3][4] - The agricultural sector has shown remarkable recovery, with a profit growth of 2541.6% due to low base effects, while non-bank financials have benefited from improved capital market conditions, achieving a profit growth of 48.7% [2][4] Market Outlook - The current economic environment suggests that the low point of the profit downturn cycle has been surpassed, but attention must be paid to the impact of tariff policies on corporate fundamentals in the second quarter of 2025 [2][38] - The market is advised to seek opportunities in sectors with recovering demand and low tariff impacts, particularly in AI-related industries and companies with strong cash flows that are less exposed to external demand [39][40]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, highlighting the performance of different sectors and the outlook for corporate earnings in the coming years. It emphasizes the importance of valuation and earnings growth as key drivers for market movements. Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index saw slight declines, while small-cap stocks experienced gains [2][3] - Value-style stocks, such as banks, faced significant declines, whereas growth-style stocks saw increases [4] - Hong Kong stocks overall rose, with technology stocks leading the gains [5][6] Valuation Insights - After a brief decline in early April, the market has rebounded, returning to a normal valuation range [7] - Many stocks are currently undervalued, suggesting limited downside potential [10] - Institutional investors, including state-owned entities, tend to buy heavily when the market dips, further reducing downside risk [11] Earnings Growth Outlook - For 2024, A-share market earnings are expected to decline slightly by about 2% compared to 2023 [19] - In the first quarter of 2025, earnings are projected to grow by approximately 3-4%, marking the first annual improvement since 2022 [20] - Sectors such as internet and high-end manufacturing are expected to maintain stable earnings growth [21] Sector-Specific Performance - Traditional industries like finance, consumption, and utilities have seen modest earnings growth in recent years [22] - The pharmaceutical sector, which experienced significant growth during the pandemic, is expected to recover in late 2024 and early 2025 [23] - The real estate sector continues to struggle with declining earnings, although the rate of decline is slowing [23] Economic Factors and Market Dynamics - The article notes potential uncertainties, such as the impact of Trump's tariff policies on export-oriented industries [24] - If earnings growth continues in the second and third quarters, the economy may gradually recover from its current low phase, opening up more market upside [24] - Historically, strong economic years have coincided with market peaks, suggesting that low periods may offer better valuation opportunities [24] Investment Tools and Features - A new feature in the "Today Star" mini-program allows users to view real-time star ratings and set custom alerts for specific star levels [25][26][28]

Core Insights - The article narrates a personal investment journey, highlighting the challenges and learning experiences faced while investing in funds and stocks, particularly in the context of a gig economy job like food delivery [1][3][9]. Investment Strategies - The author employs a "buying groceries" approach to investing, indicating a methodical and cautious strategy in selecting funds [7]. - Emphasizes the importance of analyzing fund performance over a three-year period before making investment decisions [8]. - Suggests that high volatility funds should be approached with caution, akin to consuming spicy food in small amounts [8]. Market Observations - The article notes that an increase in food delivery orders can signal a good time to invest in index funds, reflecting a correlation between consumer behavior and market trends [7]. - The author observes that certain stocks, like those in the construction materials sector, can be influenced by external factors such as local events (e.g., moving trucks in the area) [12]. Personal Finance Management - The narrative includes a unique perspective on quantifying investment losses in terms of missed earnings from food delivery, illustrating the emotional and financial impact of investment decisions [12]. - The author maintains a disciplined approach to budgeting, allocating a third of monthly income to investments, which reflects a strategic financial planning mindset [8]. Learning and Adaptation - The article highlights the importance of continuous learning in investment, with references to reading materials and adapting strategies based on market conditions [5][9]. - The author shares insights on recognizing market trends, such as the rise in demand for certain stocks during specific weather conditions, indicating a proactive approach to investment [12].

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 22,008, up 0.16% year-to-date increase of 29.10% [1] - The US markets continued to rebound, with the Dow Jones up 0.75% and the S&P 500 up 0.58%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 7.53% and 16.58% respectively [1][3] Industry Insights - The equipment manufacturing sector reported Q1 2025 earnings, with SANY Heavy Industry exceeding expectations with a 56% year-on-year profit increase, driven by an 18% revenue growth [4] - The pharmaceutical company WuXi AppTec reported a strong Q1 2025, with revenue up 21% to 9.65 billion yuan and a non-IFRS net profit increase of 40% to 2.68 billion yuan [4][6] - Mindray Medical's revenue for 2024 was 36.7 billion yuan, a 5.1% increase, but faced challenges in the domestic market with a 12.1% decline in Q1 2025 revenue [7][8] Company Analysis - WuXi AppTec maintained its full-year guidance despite macro uncertainties, expecting a 10-15% revenue growth in its continuing operations for 2025 [4][6] - Mindray Medical's overseas revenue grew by 21.3% in 2024, accounting for 44.7% of total revenue, indicating strong international market performance [7] - Luckin Coffee reported a 41% year-on-year sales increase in Q1 2025, driven by strong same-store sales growth and rapid store expansion [11][12] Investment Ratings - SANY Heavy Industry is rated as a "Buy" with a focus on its excavator business cycle and overseas growth potential [4] - WuXi AppTec is also rated as a "Buy," with a target price of 77.22 yuan, reflecting confidence in its growth despite external challenges [6] - Mindray Medical is rated as a "Buy," with a target price of 249.19 yuan, anticipating recovery in domestic sales in the latter half of 2025 [8]