文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 前言 近三十余年，广东、江苏一直稳坐我国经济的头两把交椅。作为经济第一大省"一把手"，广东省委书 记也长期位居中央政治局委员之列。 2024 年，两省 GDP 差距大幅缩减，再次引起市场对粤苏模式 的探讨。作为我国经济的" TOP2 "，除了经济体量大的共有特征，两省在其他领域的模式，可以说 是"风格迥异"。除了我们熟知的"核心""散装"经济模式外，还涵盖财政、基建、地产、消费、产业等 多个领域。对粤苏模式的拆解，也是在分析当前经济不同领域的演变趋势。 报告摘要 一、 GDP ：核心 VS 散装 广东省内 GDP 集中度较高，以广深等城市为"核心"；江苏更为均衡，呈"散装"模式 。用省内倒数两 个城市的 GDP/ 前两个城市的 GDP 衡量： 2024 年，广东该指标为 4% ，省内差距是 24 省份中最 大的（不包括直辖市等）；江苏该指标为 21% ，在 24 省中排名第五，是 6 个经济大省中最均衡 的。时间序列看，疫情之后，江苏的省内差 ...

Core Viewpoints - The current macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with some companies facing operational pressures while positive trends in consumption, industry, and capital markets are emerging [2] Employment Issues - The total number of employees in manufacturing listed companies reached 16.01 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, down from 4.1% in the previous year [4][14] - Employment growth is primarily driven by the automotive manufacturing and computer communication electronics sectors, which contributed nearly all of the employment increase [4][14] Income Distribution - The average salary in the manufacturing sector is projected to be 176,000 yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, aligning closely with the growth rate of urban residents' disposable income [5][20] - The ratio of manufacturing average salary to financial industry salary has increased, reaching its highest level since 2012, indicating a favorable environment for talent influx into manufacturing [5][20] Profitability Issues - Manufacturing companies are experiencing profitability pressure, with operating profit declining by 12.2% year-on-year in 2024, and the operating profit margin dropping from 6.6% in 2023 to 5.7% in 2024 [6][24] - The profitability pressure index for the industrial sector has risen to 10.5%, indicating increased pressure compared to 7.7% in 2023 [6][25] Investment Returns - The estimated investment return for manufacturing listed companies is approximately 5.4% in 2024, down from 6.4% in the previous year, marking a decline in absolute levels [7][33] - Despite the overall decline, certain sectors such as leather, computer communication electronics, and general equipment have shown a rebound in investment returns [7][33] Asset and Liability Issues - Total assets of manufacturing listed companies grew by 5.1% year-on-year in 2024, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years [8][36] - The asset-liability ratio has continued to rise, reaching 52% in 2024, indicating increasing debt levels [8][36] Cash Flow - The accounts receivable turnover days increased to 57.1 days in 2024, indicating greater collection pressure [9][45] - The growth rate of monetary funds for non-financial A-share companies turned negative at -1.9% in 2024, with manufacturing experiencing a significant decline to -2.8% [9][45] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for manufacturing listed companies decreased by 11.1% year-on-year in 2024, contrasting with a growth of 3.4% in the previous year [10][48] - Newly listed companies have shown a significant increase in capital expenditure, with a growth rate of 23.7% in 2023-2024, indicating a divergence from established firms [10][48] Financing Issues - The growth rate of interest-bearing debt for manufacturing listed companies slowed to 6.8% in 2024, continuing a trend of deceleration since 2022 [11][57] - The interest burden has decreased, with the ratio of interest expenses to interest-bearing debt falling to 3.36% in 2024, indicating a reduction in debt servicing costs [11][57]

Core Viewpoints - The economic cycle has been continuously improving since September 2024, with the April data showing a persistent improvement in the deposit scissors difference between enterprises and residents [4][21] - Non-bank institutions have seen the highest deposit growth in the past five years, indicating a potential shift in resident deposits and a response to the central bank's efforts to stabilize the market [4][9] - Loan data reveals a structural shift, with an increase in consumer loans for residents and a decrease in operational loans, while enterprises are seeing a rise in short-term loans but a decline in medium- to long-term loans [4][8] Financial Asset Side Observations - April is typically a month of weak credit expansion, with the new social financing scale at 1.16 trillion, which is relatively stable compared to previous years [6][12] - The structure of resident loans is changing, with consumer loans increasing while operational loans are declining, reflecting a shift in demand and potential impacts on household debt and bank income [7][14] - Enterprise loans have shown a strong performance in 2025, with a total of 9.3 trillion in new loans, although the duration of these loans is shortening compared to previous years [8][18] Financial Liability Side Observations - Leading indicators of the economic cycle are improving, with the enterprise-resident deposit scissors difference recovering from -14.7% in August 2024 to -8.4% currently [9][21] - Non-bank institution deposits have increased significantly, with a total of 2.2 trillion in new deposits in the first four months of 2025, indicating strong performance in the equity market [9][23] - The central bank's protective measures in the financial market are evident, with interventions aimed at stabilizing asset prices during market shocks [10][24] April Financial Data Highlights - In April, RMB loans increased by 280 billion, with a total loan balance of 265.7 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [29][31] - The social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, indicating ongoing government debt issuance [31][32] - M2 growth was recorded at 8%, while new M1 growth was at 1.5%, showing a mixed trend in monetary aggregates [32][33]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 一、服务通缩会压过商品通胀吗？ 问题： 关税涨价侵蚀消费能力，但商品消费难压缩，只能挤压服务消费。服务权重远高于商品，最后呈现商品通胀+服务通缩、整体物价偏弱的局面？ 回答：大概率不会商品通胀+服务通缩的现象 。 长周期来看，美国商品实际消费占比从1990年代初确实就已触底回升，服务实际消费占比开始缓慢下降，商品实际消费可能确实很难压缩 。1959-1992年，实际消 费结构中，商品占比从35.3%降至27.5%，服务占比从64.7%升至72.5%。1993年至2024年，商品占比从27.5%升至34%，服务占比从72.5%降至66%。 但二战以来美国没有出现过商品通胀与服务通缩并存的时期，即便是历次经济危机期间，美国服务价格也没有出现过通缩现象 。次贷危机冲击下，PCE服务价格 同比在2009年创下最低值0.8%。新冠疫情衰退期间，PCE服务同比仅从19年Q4的2.1%降至20年Q2的1.7%。学界研究普遍认为，相比商品，服务价格粘性更强，存 在类似"名义工资刚性"的现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), highlighting that the CPI has been slightly below market expectations for two consecutive months, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures [2][5][9]. CPI Overview - In April, the CPI year-on-year decreased from 2.4% to 2.3%, below Bloomberg's expectation of 2.4%, while the core CPI remained steady at 2.8% [2][9]. - The CPI and core CPI have reached their lowest levels since the second quarter of 2021 [2][9]. - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the previous value of -0.1% [2][9]. Structural Analysis of CPI - The month-on-month increase in CPI was primarily influenced by low base effects, with energy, core goods, and super core services prices shifting from decline to increase [3][12]. - Food prices saw a significant drop, with a month-on-month change from 0.4% to -0.1%, largely due to the fading impact of avian influenza, leading to a 12.7% decrease in egg prices [3][12]. - Energy prices rebounded from -2.4% to 0.7%, driven by a 3.7% increase in gas service prices, despite a slight decrease in gasoline prices [3][12][13]. - Core goods prices shifted from -0.1% to 0.1%, with contributions from furniture, medical supplies, and entertainment goods [4][13]. - Rent growth remained stable, with primary residence rent unchanged at 0.3% [4][13]. - Super core services prices increased from -0.24% to 0.21%, with significant contributions from hotel accommodations and car rentals [4][14]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The current economic fundamentals in the US appear healthy, with no evident signs of stagflation, and private sector consumption demand remains strong [5][16]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a "wait and see" approach, as inflation has been stable and slightly below expectations for two months [5][16][17]. - Despite a significant reduction in tariffs between the US and China, the overall tariff rate remains high at nearly 41%, creating uncertainty in future negotiations [5][16][17]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have been adjusted, with the first anticipated cut now pushed to September [17]. Market Reactions - Following the Geneva talks between the US and China, a "risk on" mode was observed in the market, although caution is advised regarding the optimism surrounding tariff negotiations [6][17]. - The CPI report has led to stable market expectations for interest rate cuts, with the futures market slightly adjusting the anticipated number of cuts for the year [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the current situation of migrant workers in China, highlighting that the number of migrant workers reached 300 million in 2024, a historical high, with significant changes in employment, wages, and consumption patterns [2][5]. Group 1: Population Flow - In 2024, migrant workers primarily flow to the eastern regions, but the net inflow has decreased by approximately 4.5 million compared to 2019 [2][5]. - The total number of migrant workers is 300 million, accounting for 41% of the total employment in China, with major sources being the eastern and central regions [5][14]. - The net inflow of migrant workers in 2024 is concentrated in the eastern region, with a net increase of 4.834 million, while the central region has seen a decrease in outflow [5][14]. Group 2: Employment - Employment among migrant workers is concentrated in manufacturing, construction, and wholesale retail, with 83.62 million, 42.86 million, and 40.76 million workers respectively in 2024 [6][17]. - There is a marginal outflow from the construction industry to manufacturing and the tertiary sector, with a decrease of 2.96 million workers in construction [6][19]. - Compared to 2021, the construction sector has lost 12.72 million workers, with manufacturing and wholesale retail absorbing a significant portion of this outflow [7][19]. Group 3: Wages - The average disposable income for migrant workers in 2024 is 4,961 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, which is slightly lower than the national average [8][22]. - Wages vary significantly across industries, with construction experiencing a wage growth of 4.6% despite a decrease in employment, while manufacturing saw a 4.1% increase in wages alongside employment growth [8][24]. - The article categorizes six key industries into four types based on employment and wage trends, highlighting the differences in wage growth and employment changes across sectors [8][24]. Group 4: Consumption - Historically, migrant workers have focused more on goods consumption, but there is a recent shift towards increased service consumption, particularly in education, housing, and entertainment [9][30]. - In 2024, the enrollment rate for migrant workers' children aged 3-5 is 94.5%, indicating a significant increase in educational spending [10][30]. - The average living space for migrant workers has increased to 24.7 square meters, suggesting a rise in housing expenditure despite a slight decrease in rental prices [10][30]. Group 5: Economic Perception - The GDP growth rate from the perspective of migrant workers has consistently outpaced the official GDP growth from 2020 to 2024, indicating a K-shaped recovery during the pandemic [3][31]. - In 2023-2024, the GDP growth rate for migrant workers remains higher than the official rate, reflecting a recovery in low-end consumption [3][31]. - By the first quarter of 2025, the GDP growth rates for both migrant workers and the official figures are expected to converge, suggesting a shift in consumption dynamics influenced by policy direction [3][32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a comprehensive set of financial policies introduced by Chinese authorities to stabilize the market and manage expectations, focusing on monetary policy adjustments and regulatory measures aimed at supporting economic recovery and growth [2][3][16]. Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China announced ten monetary policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, and a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools [2][17]. - Specific measures include increasing the quota for technology innovation and technical transformation relending by 300 billion yuan, establishing a 500 billion yuan relending facility for service consumption and elderly care, and optimizing the use of financial tools to support capital markets [2][17]. Financial Regulatory Measures - The National Financial Regulatory Administration introduced eight policy measures, such as accelerating the development of financing systems compatible with new real estate models and expanding the scope of long-term investment trials for insurance funds [3][18]. - Additional measures include revising merger loan management regulations and enhancing support for small and micro enterprises [3][18]. Capital Market Support - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized three policy directions: consolidating market recovery, focusing on new productive forces, and promoting long-term capital inflow into the market [3][19]. - The commission also released an action plan to enhance the quality of public funds, which includes optimizing fee structures and binding fund companies' interests with those of investors [4][22]. International Relations and Economic Cooperation - Recent diplomatic engagements include discussions between Chinese leaders and European and Russian counterparts, focusing on deepening strategic communication and cooperation in various sectors [9][10]. - The government is also working on enhancing trade and economic dialogues with the U.S. and France, indicating a proactive approach to international economic relations [14]. Policy Implementation and Future Outlook - The article outlines the government's commitment to implementing these policies effectively, with a focus on ensuring liquidity in the market and supporting economic stability [16][19]. - The ongoing adjustments in monetary and regulatory policies are expected to create a more favorable environment for economic growth and investment [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of tariffs on U.S. inventory levels and how long these inventories can buffer against rising import costs and consumer prices [1]. Group 1: U.S. Inventory Analysis - As of February, the overall inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. manufacturing and trade sectors is approximately 1.5 months, with manufacturers at 1.9 months, wholesalers at 1.3 months, and retailers at 1.4 months, all at relatively low percentiles since the pandemic [4][8]. - If assuming that inventories from manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers are solely for domestic retail sales, the overall inventory could cover about 4.2 months of sales [5][9]. - The low inventory-to-sales ratios suggest limited buffering capacity against supply-demand imbalances, which could lead to upward pressure on inflation [5][9]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Inventory Insights - In the retail sector, categories such as furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics have a notably low inventory-to-sales ratio of just 1 month, placing them in the 6.5% percentile since the pandemic [13]. - Conversely, the automotive and building materials sectors have higher ratios, exceeding 2 months, indicating a more stable inventory position [13]. - In the manufacturing and wholesale sectors, categories like machinery and textiles show higher inventory-to-sales ratios, while electrical equipment remains low at around 1 month [6][14]. Group 3: PMI and Inventory Trends - The ISM manufacturing PMI inventory index fell to 50.8% in April from 53.4% in March, indicating a decrease in inventory accumulation as companies reduce stockpiling ahead of tariff implementations [17]. - The customer inventory index remains low at 46.2%, suggesting concerns about the sustainability of overall manufacturing inventory levels [17][18]. - Among 18 manufacturing sectors, 5 reported increased inventory levels in April, while 8 sectors, including textiles and transportation equipment, saw declines, reflecting a mixed inventory landscape [18].

Group 1 - The overall economic sentiment is mixed, with some indicators showing recovery while others indicate a decline [1][2][11] - Public transportation usage, including subway and domestic flights, has seen a slight increase, with subway ridership averaging 80.98 million daily in early May, up 2.5% year-on-year [1][5] - Land premium rates have rebounded, reaching 12.37% in early May compared to 9.63% in April [1][5] Group 2 - U.S. imports have shown a significant decline, with a 20.1% decrease in import value in the week of May 1, particularly from China, which saw a 27.9% drop [2][12] - Domestic prices for bulk commodities are weak, with prices for coal, steel, and cement continuing to fall [2][22] - The issuance of new special bonds has exceeded 1 trillion, indicating a significant increase in local government financing plans [2][28] Group 3 - Interest rates have decreased following recent monetary policy adjustments, with DR001 at 1.4908% as of May 9, down 29.45 basis points from April 30 [3][31] - The bond market is experiencing a net issuance of government bonds, with a notable amount of special bonds planned for the second quarter [28][29] Group 4 - Commodity prices are showing divergent trends, with international prices for oil, gold, and copper rising, while domestic prices for coal and construction materials are declining [22][27] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has decreased by 8.6%, indicating a weakening in shipping rates [24][27]

Core Viewpoints - In April, China's exports showed unexpected resilience with a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 1.9% and slightly above previous forecasts [2][4][42] - The rebound in imports, with a year-on-year change of -0.2%, also surpassed market expectations of -5.9%, indicating a recovery in trade dynamics [2][4][65] Group 1: Export Resilience and Risks - The strong export performance in April is attributed to increased exports to non-U.S. regions, which offset the decline in direct exports to the U.S. [6][12] - The analysis distinguishes between two types of risks: beta (β) risk, which relates to U.S. tariff impacts on global demand, and alpha (α) risk, which pertains to the relative tariff rates imposed on China compared to other countries [4][7][18] - If β risk does not materialize, the focus should be on tracking the re-routing of exports to mitigate tariff impacts, as historical data suggests a significant portion of exports can be redirected [5][18] Group 2: Import Dynamics - The increase in imports in April was driven by processing trade, particularly a surge in integrated circuit imports, which contributed significantly to the overall import growth [10][38] - The impact of retaliatory tariffs may not have fully manifested in April's data, as goods shipped before the tariff implementation date were exempt from additional duties [10][68] - The overall import growth of -0.2% in April indicates a narrowing decline compared to March's -4.3%, suggesting a potential stabilization in trade flows [2][65] Group 3: Tracking U.S. Import Demand - Monitoring U.S. import demand is crucial, as any decline could signal broader global trade challenges, with historical data indicating that a drop in U.S. import growth could lead to proportional declines in global trade [4][20] - Key factors influencing U.S. import demand include tariff policies, price transmission effects, and consumer purchasing power, particularly the impact of inflation on U.S. households [20][24] - Projections indicate that U.S. import growth may decline significantly in the coming years, with estimates suggesting a drop to -9.6% by 2025 under current tariff scenarios [24][27] Group 4: Export Performance by Region and Product - Exports to the U.S. have significantly decreased, while exports to ASEAN countries have increased, reflecting the shifting dynamics in trade relationships due to tariffs [51][68] - The performance of consumer goods has been weaker, particularly for products facing high tariffs, while intermediate goods that are exempt from tariffs have shown stronger export growth [57][59] - The overall export landscape indicates a complex interplay of tariff impacts and regional trade adjustments, necessitating ongoing analysis of trade flows and market conditions [4][51]