Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected profit growth rates of 27%, 24%, and 21% for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [4] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.828 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 435 million RMB, up 34.50% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 449 million RMB, a 20.81% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 108 million RMB, reflecting an 8.20% increase year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on high-end market applications, expanding its influence in sectors such as AI, robotics, automotive electronics, and drones, with a significant increase in automotive electronics sales [3] Summary by Sections Performance Review - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.828 billion RMB and a net profit of 435 million RMB, with Q4 2024 revenue at 473 million RMB, showing a 26.98% year-on-year increase [2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 449 million RMB and a net profit of 108 million RMB, with a gross margin increase of 1.9 percentage points to 36.58% [2] Market and Product Strategy - The company is enhancing its market presence by maintaining existing customer relationships while exploring new applications, particularly in high-end markets [3] - The automotive electronics segment has seen a significant increase, with over 200 vehicle-grade MOSFETs launched and sales up over 60% year-on-year [3] Financial Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 551 million RMB, 684 million RMB, and 826 million RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.33, 1.65, and 1.99 RMB [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 24, 19, and 16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]

基金分析专题报告(深度) 证券研究报告 数说公募权益及FOF基金一季报 ——科技仍为重仓方向，中小盘、港股配置强度提升 王子薇 分析师SAC执业编号：S1130524010001 王聃聃 分析师SAC执业编号：S1130521100001 张剑辉 分析师SAC执业编号：S1130519100003 2025/4/25 主动权益基金2025年一季报总结 风险提示：地缘政治风险；海外加息缓和进程不及预期；国内政策及经济复苏不及预期；基金相关信息及数据仅作为基金研究使用，不作为募集材料或者宣传材料；本文涉及所有基金历史业绩均不代表未来表现 4 1. 基金市场概况：业绩回顾 ◼ 基金市场概况：一季度A股市场整体震荡但韧性十足，日度成交额突破万亿成为常态化，AI、消费、创新药以及资源股热点轮动。各主 要宽基指数收益率均落在-2%至5%的区间，港股实现大幅反弹。各风格指数略有分化，小盘和成长风格显著占优，大盘蓝筹相对弱势。 行业指数方面，受益于开工季节性效应以及全球关税政策变动，汽车制造业和资源品表现较好，AI算力与消费电子复苏催化科技行业也 有阶段表现，消费、医药、农业、大金融板块有所分化。主动权益基金规模环比上涨1. ...

宏观经济报告 在"对等关税"让中国的出口形势变得复杂时，我们梳理了一些可以有效跟踪美国进口和中国出口节奏的高频指 标。第一类是中美港口数据，包括美国主要港口的进口集装箱吞吐量和中国的港口货物和集装箱吞吐量；第二类是集 装箱运价数据，包括中国公布的出口集装箱运价指数（CCFI）、主要航线的集装箱运价指数和波罗的海干散货指数（BDI）； 第三类是中美工业生产和需求高频数据，包括美国经济景气度和出口依赖度较高的行业生产数据；第四类是韩国 旬度公布相对详细的出口数据，包括对主要国家的出口和主要商品的出口。 从目前的高频数据来看，在较高的关税下，4 月对美直接出口或已经开始回落。按照截至 4月第三周相关高 频数据，4 月出口同比增速或在 2.9%左右。估算值仅供参考。但出口同比增速回落的趋势已经较为明确。 风险提示 关注后续中美关税摩擦的进展，关税进展会显著影响到后续的出口 除地缘政治冲突外，需要关注美国经济衰退带来的需求下滑风险 高频数据对出口的跟踪依旧存在一定不足，高频数据估算的出口增速存在一定偏差 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 在"对等关税"让中国的出口形势变得复杂时，我们梳理了一些可以有效跟踪 ...

自 2024 年 11 月特朗普胜选后，美国企业便开始了"抢进口"：24 年 12 月，美国进口增速升至 12.8%；2025 年 1-2 月，美国进口增速突破了 20%，创下近年来新高。 分商品看，美国消费品、资本品、中间品的进口增速均明显上行。其中，2025 年 1-2 月，工业用品和材料的进口增速 超过了 60%，消费品的进口增速达到了 26.3%。 分产地看，2024 年 12 月-2025 年 2 月美国自中国香港、澳大利亚、非洲、东盟等地区的进口增速最高。 考虑到中国对非洲同期出口增速也大幅上行（3 月中国出口非洲增速 37%），不排除非洲正在成为东盟、中国香港等地 区之外的中转贸易地的可能。 随着美国对除中国外的国家延迟 90 天征收"对等关税"，对中国则按照 145%或者更高的关税加征（年初还额外加征 20%），中国出口可能进入"抢转口"阶段。 最后，无论靠转口贸易、转移产能、还是转嫁成本，当美国自身的需求走弱、补库结束后，中国的出口增速都难免出 现暂时的回落，而前期抢出口带来的透支效应也会对回落的出口增速构成额外压力。密歇根大学调查数据也显示居民 信心、预期指数从 2024 年 12 月的 ...

Group 1: Quantitative Credit Strategy - The mid-to-long-term bullet strategies generally show no excess returns, but perform better than the barbell configuration. Among mid-to-long-term strategies, city investment duration, secondary bond bullets, and secondary bond downgrades have positive excess returns within 4 basis points, while most other combinations show readings above -3 basis points, indicating no significant differentiation in strategy performance [1][11] - The city investment barbell strategy combination has accumulated excess returns in the past month, but has given back some of the previous gains last week. Additionally, the ongoing tariff negotiations and fluctuating market expectations suggest that duration strategies may still lack effectiveness [1][11] Group 2: Duration Tracking - As of April 18, city investment bonds, industrial bonds, leasing company bonds, and insurance company bonds have durations at historically high percentiles. The weighted average transaction durations for city investment bonds and industrial bonds are 1.95 years and 2.15 years, respectively, both remaining at high levels since March 2021 [2][14] - In the commercial bank bond category, the weighted average transaction durations for secondary capital bonds, perpetual bonds, and general commercial bank bonds are 3.69 years, 2.97 years, and 1.93 years, respectively. Among other financial bonds, securities company bonds and their subordinated bonds have durations of 1.26 years and 1.79 years, respectively, indicating lower historical percentiles, while insurance company bonds and leasing company bonds are at higher historical percentiles [2][14] Group 3: Yield Heatmap of Credit Assets - As of April 21, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds are generally higher than other varieties. Compared to last week, the yields of non-financial and non-real estate industrial bonds have adjusted, with 1-2 year private enterprise public non-perpetual varieties seeing yield increases exceeding 15 basis points [3][19] - In the real estate bond category, short-term varieties still see declining rates, while yields for bonds with maturities over one year have generally increased by less than 5 basis points. In financial bonds, most varieties show upward yield trends, particularly in general commercial bank bonds and secondary capital bonds, where yield increases are primarily found in maturities over two years, although the overall adjustment remains small, within 5 basis points [3][19] Group 4: Long-term Credit Bond Tracking - The long-term credit bond index has turned downward. Since late March, due to increased volatility in the equity market and tariff disturbances, the bond market has strengthened again. The cost-effectiveness of mid-to-short duration existing coupon assets has been rapidly weakened, prompting investors seeking excess returns to start buying long-term credit bonds [4][23] - However, since April, the performance of long-term credit bonds has not been as strong as expected. Recent trends indicate that the long-term credit bond index has struggled to outperform the 10-year government bond index, and even with last week's rebound, no significant gains have been observed [4][23][24] Group 5: Local Government Bond Supply and Trading Tracking - Since April, the turnover rate of local bonds has shown significant fluctuations, likely related to short-term changes in market liquidity and investor trading sentiment. The turnover rate for local bonds with maturities over 10 years is relatively high [5][27] - In the current environment of overall stable interest rates but divergent market expectations, investors have shown strong trading willingness for long-term local bonds. The trading volume of long-term bonds continues to expand, with the transaction volume of bonds over 10 years significantly exceeding that of bonds within 7 years, aligning with the preference of institutions like insurance for long-duration bonds [5][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6 to 12 months [5][11]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.874 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 501 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 0.20% [2]. - The company's planting business showed robust growth, with revenue reaching 530 million RMB, up 10.60% year-on-year, driven by increased demand following price reductions in dental implants [3]. - The company is advancing its digital transformation through AI technology, enhancing operational efficiency and service quality [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 745 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.11%, and a net profit of 184 million RMB, up 6.22% [2]. Operational Analysis - The orthodontics segment saw a revenue decline of 5.05%, while pediatric and restoration services remained stable, indicating the essential nature of dental care [3]. - The company expanded its "Dandelion Plan" in the province, adding 3 new branches, bringing the total to 44, with 60% achieving breakeven [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 537 million, 574 million, and 610 million RMB, respectively, with expected growth rates of 7%, 7%, and 6% [5]. - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected at 1.20, 1.28, and 1.36 RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 33, 31, and 29 times [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a declining trend in public fund allocation to the chemical industry, with the allocation ratio dropping to 4.1% in Q1 2025, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, reflecting a historical low level [1][11]. Core Insights - The focus of public funds has shifted, with a notable decrease in the concentration of holdings in leading companies within the chemical sector. The top ten heavyweights' market capitalization share fell from 46.2% in Q4 2024 to 41.9% in Q1 2025 [1]. - Attention has been primarily directed towards the civil explosives and fluorochemical sectors in Q1 2025, with significant increases in holdings for companies like Guangdong Hongda and Zhenhua Co., while reductions were seen in companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Xinzhou Bang [2][3]. - The report highlights a strong interest in sectors with price increase potential, such as fluorochemicals, chromium salts, and pesticides, alongside improving supply-demand dynamics in the civil explosives sector [3]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Allocation Trends - The allocation of public funds to the chemical industry has been on a downward trajectory since Q2 2022, with the market capitalization share decreasing to 4.1% in Q1 2025, marking a significant decline from previous years [11][12]. Individual Stock Movements - Key stocks that saw increased holdings include Guangdong Hongda, Zhenhua Co., and Saint Spring Group, while major reductions were noted for Wanhua Chemical and Xinzhou Bang [2][16]. - The top ten companies by market capitalization in the chemical sector accounted for 52.2% of total holdings, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points [11][15]. Sector Performance - The report identifies the top five sectors by fund holdings in Q1 2025 as other chemical products (13.36 billion), polyurethane (5.91 billion), tires (5.18 billion), fluorochemicals and refrigerants (4.96 billion), and other chemical raw materials (3.85 billion) [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with price increase potential and strong domestic demand, particularly civil explosives, while also highlighting opportunities in new materials such as AI materials [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 40.36 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.3%, driven primarily by the express delivery business [2] - The express delivery segment saw a revenue decline of 19.7% to 2.19 billion RMB, while the freight business grew by 12.95% to 36.46 billion RMB, supported by improved delivery quality and sales capabilities [2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 10.41 billion RMB, a 12% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 0.68 billion RMB, down 173.7% due to increased resource investment and a 34% rise in transportation costs [2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company’s gross margin decreased to 7.62%, down 1.06 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased transportation costs [3] - The operating expense ratio improved to 5.51%, down 1.06 percentage points, with sales expenses rising by 43.04% to 686 million RMB, reflecting ongoing investments in sales capabilities [3] - Management expenses decreased by 20.40% to 1.241 billion RMB, indicating efficiency improvements in organizational functions [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 970 million RMB and 1.07 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 1.18 billion RMB [4] - The report highlights a projected revenue growth rate of 10.50% for 2025 and a net profit growth rate of 13.05% for the same year [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 27.42 billion, 32.69 billion, and 39.09 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.34 billion, 3.24 billion, and 4.53 billion RMB [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.57, 0.79, and 1.11 RMB for the same years [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 52.3, 37.8, and 27.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2023 is estimated at 2,254 million RMB, with a slight decline of 0.75% compared to the previous year [8] - Revenue growth is expected to recover with rates of 6.27%, 14.47%, 19.23%, and 19.56% for the years 2024 to 2027 [8] - The net profit for 2023 is projected at 254 million RMB, with a significant drop of 45.21% in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 67.84%, 38.42%, and 39.98% in the subsequent years [8] Financial Metrics - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.620, 0.340, 0.570, 0.789, and 1.105 RMB from 2023 to 2027 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.58% in 2023 to 13.20% in 2027 [8] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to be 3.36, 2.80, 4.12, 3.87, and 3.56 from 2023 to 2027 [8] Market Performance - The company reported a revenue of 23.95 billion RMB for FY24, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.27%, slightly below the lower end of the forecast [9] - The fourth quarter of FY24 showed a significant revenue increase of 20.70% year-on-year [9] - The overall gross margin for FY24 was 30.46%, down by 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to aggressive pricing strategies in a competitive market [9] Order and Client Dynamics - The company experienced a 16.65% year-on-year increase in orders for FY24, with new client contracts accounting for 32% of total orders [9] - Orders from state-owned enterprises surged by over 300% year-on-year, while self-developed software orders grew by 11.3% [9] Cost Management - Operating expenses (OpEx) were tightly controlled, with research and development, sales, and management expense ratios at 11.0%, 6.7%, and 5.5% respectively for FY24 [9] - The increase in management expense ratio was due to optimization of inefficient positions and strengthening of core talent [9] Strategic Initiatives - The company has established international operations in Hong Kong and plans to expand into Japan and Europe by 2025 [9] - Progress in AI and PCB business segments is promising, with a 35% year-on-year increase in orders for FY24 [9] - Ongoing collaboration with Huawei is yielding successful market applications of their industrial data model products [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 27.42 billion, 32.69 billion, and 39.09 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.34 billion, 3.24 billion, and 4.53 billion RMB [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.57, 0.79, and 1.11 RMB for the same years [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 52.3, 37.8, and 27.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2023 is estimated at 2,254 million RMB, with a slight decline of 0.75% compared to the previous year [8] - Revenue growth is expected to recover with rates of 6.27%, 14.47%, 19.23%, and 19.56% for the years 2024 to 2027 [8] - The net profit for 2023 is projected at 254 million RMB, with a significant drop of 45.21% in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 67.84%, 38.42%, and 39.98% for the subsequent years [8] Financial Metrics - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.620, 0.340, 0.570, 0.789, and 1.105 RMB from 2023 to 2027 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.58% in 2023 to 13.20% in 2027 [8] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to be 3.36, 2.80, 4.12, 3.87, and 3.56 from 2023 to 2027 [8] Market Performance - The company reported a revenue of 23.95 billion RMB for FY24, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.27%, although slightly below the lower end of the forecast [9] - The fourth quarter of FY24 showed a significant revenue increase of 20.70% year-over-year [9] - The overall gross margin for FY24 was 30.46%, down by 5.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [9] Strategic Developments - The company has established international operations in Hong Kong and plans to expand into Japan and Europe by 2025 [9] - The collaboration with Huawei continues to progress, with successful commercialization of products based on Huawei's industrial data model [9]