Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3][5] Core Views - The company plans to acquire 30% equity in Rainbow Optoelectronics, which is expected to help consolidate and expand its competitive advantage in the panel industry. This acquisition will enhance the company's product line and diversify its customer base, increasing the market share of the BOE system to over 30% [4][5][11] - The expected revenue growth for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 13.3%, 8.3%, and 9.2%, reaching 2248 billion, 2434 billion, and 2659 billion respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow by 64.0%, 39.8%, and 20.8%, reaching 87.30 billion, 122.04 billion, and 147.37 billion respectively [5][13] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - On June 17, the company announced its intention to acquire 30% equity in Xi'an Rainbow Optoelectronics Technology Co., Ltd. from Rainbow Display Device Co., Ltd. at a base price of 4.849 billion [4][6] - Rainbow Optoelectronics is a subsidiary of Rainbow Display, focusing on display panels primarily for televisions, with sizes ranging from 32 to 100 inches. This acquisition is anticipated to enhance the company's product offerings and customer diversity [4][11] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve stable profitability in the panel industry, with revenue from display panels projected to reach 102.1 billion in 2024, accounting for 87.5% of total revenue. The net profit for Rainbow Optoelectronics is expected to be 6.51 billion and 13.39 billion for 2023 and 2024 respectively [6][11] - The financial forecast indicates a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with the current price-to-book ratios projected at 1.07, 1.02, and 0.96 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][13] Market Positioning - The acquisition is expected to balance the technology and product mix of the BOE system, further diversifying its customer base. The company currently operates an 8.6-generation VA production line, with a significant focus on 50-inch television panels, which are projected to account for 59% of total shipments in 2024 [11][12]

Meta 发布全新 AI 眼镜，关注国产眼镜 SoC 公司。6 月 20 日 Meta 发布与知 名运动眼镜和配件品牌欧克利（Oakley）联名的 Oakley Meta HSTN，起售价 为 399 美元（约合人民币 2900 元）。该款眼镜相机分辨率达 1200 万像素， 视频录制规格为 3K Ultra HD，最高可实现 8 小时连续使用、19 小时待机， 充电眼镜盒可额外提供 48 小时续航。伴随大模型的持续更新迭代，端侧 AI 眼镜的使用体验逐步优化，建议重点关注国产 SoC 产业链公司：恒玄科技、 翱捷科技、炬芯科技、中科蓝讯、晶晨股份、全志科技、北京君正。 二季度存储涨价幅度好于预期，看好产业回暖趋势。根据 Trendforce 数据， 2Q25 NAND Flash 涨幅预计整体为 3-8%，略好于此前预期涨幅 0-5%，原厂 减产策略逐步体现，4 月初由于国际形势变化及终端需求不及预期，原厂产 能控制谨慎，供给端收缩高于预期，叠加近期 CSP 厂商需求扩张持续拉动 SSD 需求，涨价趋势预计将延续至三季度。DRAM 部分，2Q25 DDR4 涨幅预计服务 器 DDR4 为 18-23%、PC ...

2025年06月24日 证券研究报告 | 从Circle上市， 探索稳定币与交易所的合作模式 行业研究 · 行业专题 互联网 · 互联网Ⅱ 投资评级：优于大市（维持） • 全球稳定币市场规模已突破2500亿美元，行业呈现双寡头格局，USDT和USDC两者合计占84%的市场份额。整个加密货币市场总市值达3.35 万亿美元，稳定币占比7.48%，稳定币市场规模过去五年复合增速超80%，应用场景不断拓展。其中，Tether发行的USDT是全球最早也是 最大的稳定币，占60%的市场份额。Circle发行的USDC是全球第二大稳定币，市占率24%。USDC底层为美债与美元1:1储备，以合规性和透 明度为核心优势。 • Circle:作为USDC发行方在2025年6月5日登陆纽交所，作为"稳定币第一股"股价在十余天内累计涨幅超675%。商业模式主要为储备资产 利息收入、占总收入比例超99%。伴随着2025年6月17日美国参议院通过《GENIUS法案》，政策环境逐渐明晰，为稳定币市场发展提供土 壤。本文对稳定币未来市场空间与Circle财务数据进行拆分预测，并对比讨论Circle与其他加密市场相关标的估值情况。 • Cir ...

Group 1: Deposit Trends - The trend of deposit migration reflects a shift in wealth, with decreasing deposit rates leading to increased interest in risk assets. The total household deposits have expanded to 160 trillion yuan, with nearly 75% in fixed deposits. As deposit rates decline, customers are seeking higher returns and diversified allocations, prompting financial institutions to innovate products [3][14][27] - The proportion of fixed deposits among household savings has shown a significant upward trend, exceeding 70% in early 2023 and projected to reach 72.28% by 2025. This indicates a lack of confidence in the real economy, necessitating counter-cyclical policies [14][15][30] Group 2: Asset Management Industry - The asset management industry is experiencing a structural transformation, with a notable increase in the share of fixed income products. As of March 2025, cash management and fixed income products accounted for 97.7% of bank wealth management products, reflecting a shift towards lower-risk investments [42][49] - The total scale of the asset management industry is approximately 147.82 trillion yuan, with public funds accounting for 31.77 trillion yuan, making it the second-largest segment after insurance asset management [38][41] Group 3: Insurance Sector - The insurance industry is undergoing a transformation in its liability side, with a continuous decline in liability costs and significant improvements in productivity and channel quality. For instance, the new business value (NBV) of major insurers like China Life and Ping An has shown substantial growth, with increases of 4.8% and 34.9% respectively [3][4] - The demand for long-term bonds and high-dividend assets is expected to remain strong, suggesting a favorable environment for insurers with robust business models [3] Group 4: Securities Industry - The securities industry is witnessing an improvement in marginal prosperity, with cross-border investment banking and institutional derivatives business emerging as new growth points. The domestic capital market remains active, and the recovery of overseas investment banking is evident, particularly with Hong Kong IPOs leading globally [3][4] - Recommendations include focusing on leading securities firms such as CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, which are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company focuses on continuous breakthroughs in brake systems technology and market layout, with a strong revenue base from mechanical brake products and a growing contribution from electronic control systems [1][2][3]. - The company is expanding its global footprint with new subsidiaries in Singapore, Morocco, and Germany, aiming to enhance local production and revenue growth [2][47][48]. - The company is actively developing intelligent new businesses, including integrated solutions for autonomous driving, which positions it well for future market demands [3][45]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The company is rated "Outperform" with a target price range of 11.00 to 12.00 CNY, compared to a closing price of 10.46 CNY [5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects revenue growth from 38.74 billion CNY in 2023 to 66.09 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.62% [51]. - Net profit is projected to increase from 0.31 billion CNY in 2023 to 0.55 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 33.4% [51]. Business Segments - Mechanical brake systems account for 73% of total revenue, with an expected revenue of approximately 31 billion CNY in 2024 [1][17]. - Electronic control systems, including EPB and ESC, are projected to grow at a CAGR of 32% from 2020 to 2024, contributing significantly to revenue [2][27]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a strong market presence in the domestic brake system sector, with a focus on expanding its electronic control systems and intelligent solutions for electric vehicles [3][45]. - The company is actively pursuing new projects, with 166 new initiatives launched in 2024, including 74 related to electronic control systems [2][43]. Financial Metrics - The company’s EBIT margin is expected to improve from 3.5% in 2023 to 9.5% by 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [4]. - The projected return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 3.5% in 2023 to 14.7% by 2027, reflecting improved financial performance [4].

Macro and Strategy - Shenzhen is accelerating the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot programs, focusing on deepening reform and expanding opening-up [6] - The issuance of the first phase of targeted technology innovation bonds in Shenzhen marks a practical outcome following the release of reform opinions [6] Industry and Company Media and Internet - The media sector experienced a decline of 1.78%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [10] - Key companies like OpenAI and ByteDance are making significant advancements, with OpenAI signing a $200 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense [11] Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a slight decline of 0.02%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.49 percentage points [14] - The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol reached 278.7 billion yuan in the first five months, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [15] Home Appliances - The 618 shopping festival showed strong retail growth, with Midea's sales increasing by over 20% during the event [18] - Home appliance exports faced challenges, with a decline of 8% in May, although washing machines and vacuum cleaners showed resilience [19] Light Industry Manufacturing - Light industry exports continued to weaken, with furniture exports declining by 9.4% in May [21] - Meta launched AI sports glasses, indicating innovation in the industry [23] Financial Engineering - In May, U.S. equity funds saw a median return of over 5%, with large-cap growth funds rebounding nearly 9% [30] - The ETF market experienced significant inflows, particularly in financial ETFs, with nearly 50 billion yuan entering the market [34] Chemical Industry - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a significant increase in oil prices, with potential implications for global supply chains [30]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月23日 金融工程日报 沪指午后拉升，稳定币概念再度大涨、油气股反复活跃 市场表现：今日(20250623) 大部分指数处于上涨状态，规模指数中中证 2000 指数表现较好，板块指数中北证 50 指数表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价 值指数表现较好。综合金融、综合、计算机、国防军工、煤炭行业表现较好， 食品饮料、家电、钢铁、通信、汽车行业表现较差。稳定币、数字货币、中 日韩自贸区、跨境支付、第三方支付等概念表现较好，白酒、品牌龙头、光 模块(CPO)、啤酒、高速公路精选等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：今日收盘时有 83 只股票涨停，有 3 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日高开高走，收盘收益为 3.97%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为 1.26%。 今日封板率 77%，较前日提升 1%，连板率 38%，较前日提升 15%。 市场资金流向：截至 20250620 两融余额为 18125 亿元，其中融资余额 18009 亿元，融券余额 115 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.3%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 7.8%。 折溢价：20250620 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是在线消费 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry is "Outperform the Market" [2][6][24] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the increasing tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could significantly impact global oil supply and prices [3][4][19] - OPEC+ has announced substantial production increases, but actual output has not met expectations due to compensatory cuts from member countries [8][12] - The rising operational costs for U.S. shale oil production are expected to lead to a decline in U.S. oil output by 2026 [13][16] Summary by Sections Industry Events - The Iranian parliament has suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil and gas, which could lead to a spike in oil prices if implemented [3][4] - Historical precedents show that threats or actions to close the Strait have previously resulted in significant price increases, with predictions of oil prices reaching $120 per barrel if a closure occurs [5][19] OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ has announced a collective reduction of 2 million barrels per day and has extended voluntary cuts until the end of 2026, with plans to gradually restore production starting in 2025 [8][12] - Despite these announcements, actual production increases have been lower than planned, primarily due to compensatory measures from countries like Iraq and the UAE [12] U.S. Shale Oil Production - The operational costs for existing U.S. shale oil wells have risen, with average costs now at $41 per barrel, leading to a forecasted decline in production [13][16] - The EIA predicts a decrease in U.S. oil production from 13.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2025 to 13.3 million barrels per day by Q4 2026 [16] Investment Recommendations - If Iran proceeds with closing the Strait of Hormuz or if other geopolitical tensions escalate, there is a strong possibility of a significant rise in international oil prices [19] - The report estimates that Brent crude oil prices could stabilize between $70 and $80 per barrel, while WTI prices could range from $65 to $75 per barrel under current conditions [19] Company Valuations - Key companies in the sector, such as China National Petroleum and CNOOC, are rated as "Outperform the Market" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Neutral - Maintain" [5] - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market in the current period is "Neutral" [1] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has increased uncertainty, which may lead to a re - evaluation of the global supply chain, energy prices, and risk premiums, and release the risk of global asset re - pricing [1] - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in June, maintaining a high - interest rate environment to signal a wait - and - see approach and leaving room for rate cuts within the year. There are significant internal differences in the Fed's rate - cut expectations, and the policy path lacks clarity [2] - In April, the US experienced a large - scale net capital outflow, and international funds' willingness to allocate US bonds weakened [2] - The market's implied rate - cut expectation remains at two times within the year, likely in September and December [3] - US Treasury yields have risen across the board, and the term spread has slightly narrowed [3] - Investors are advised to respond flexibly to policy and geopolitical risks, prioritize medium - and short - duration bonds, and be cautious when allocating long - duration bonds [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rates - The report presents figures on 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios for various maturities, issuance winning bid rates for 2 - 30 - year US Treasuries, monthly issuance amounts, and the number of implied rate cuts in the federal funds rate futures market [13][14][19][21] US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The report shows figures related to US inflation year - on - year trends, the federal government's annual cumulative fiscal deficit, the economic surprise index, ISM PMI, consumer confidence index, financial conditions index, housing rent growth rate, number of unemployment benefit claimants, hourly wage year - on - year growth rate, non - farm payroll data, real estate new housing approval, start, and sales year - on - year growth rates, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate, breakeven inflation expectations, and non - farm industry contributions [25][27][29][31][38][43][44][50][54] Exchange Rates - The report includes figures on the one - year trend and two - week changes of non - US currencies, the Sino - US sovereign bond yield spread, the relationship between the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the relationship between the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the change in the one - year US dollar - RMB forward exchange cost [55][56][62][64] Overseas US Dollar Bonds - The report provides figures on the price trends of US dollar bonds, the combined price trends of US and European dollar bonds, the price trends of global investment - grade dollar bonds, the price trends of global high - yield dollar bonds and Chinese domestic bonds, the two - week return comparison of the global bond market, the US Treasury volatility MOVE index and the VIX fear index, and the price changes of US Treasury ETFs with different maturities [67][71][74][76] Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - The report shows figures on the return trends of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds since 2023 (by rating and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - issued US dollar bonds, the two - week returns (by rating and industry), the net financing amount trend, and the maturity scale of each sector [79][83][85][87][91] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies carried out 12 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 3 rating upgrades, 2 rating revocations, 4 initial ratings, and 3 rating downgrades [92]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [6][10]. Core Insights - The light industry exports continued to weaken in May, while U.S. furniture retail sales showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. Domestic furniture retail sales in China rose by 25.6% year-on-year, supported by the progress of the "old-for-new" subsidy program, which has reached 54% [2][3][18]. - Meta has launched a new AI sports eyewear product, Oakley Meta HSTN, which is expected to catalyze industry innovation [4][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the recovery of the home furnishing sector as the "old-for-new" subsidy program is implemented in key cities, improving customer traffic and order data. It recommends leading companies in customized home furnishing, such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Kuka Home, as well as Bull Group and Good Wife for their growth potential in smart home products [16][17]. 2. Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - In May, light industry exports fell by 9.4% year-on-year, with the decline accelerating compared to April. The U.S. furniture retail sector remains robust, reflecting strong demand [2][19]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy program has driven significant retail sales growth in furniture, with a total of 1.1 trillion yuan in sales supported by 1.75 billion subsidies issued [3][25]. - The launch of Meta's AI eyewear is seen as a potential catalyst for innovation in the industry [4][30]. 3. Market Review - The light industry sector experienced a decline of 3.06% last week, underperforming the broader market [31]. 4. Key Data Tracking - In May, furniture retail sales in China reached 170 billion yuan, up 25.6% year-on-year, while building materials sales fell by 2.9% [34]. - The report notes a decrease in domestic prices for various paper products, with significant drops in packaging paper prices [42][50]. - Real estate data indicates a 3.3% year-on-year decline in property transaction volumes in 30 major cities [58]. - The furniture export value in May was 5.64 billion USD, down 9.4% year-on-year, while paper and paper products exports also saw a slight decline [67].