Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) [5][25] Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for FY26Q2 reached 247.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The Chinese e-commerce group, international digital commerce group, and cloud intelligence group achieved year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 10%, and 34%, respectively, while other segments saw a decline of 25% [1][9] - The adjusted EBITA for the quarter was 9.1 billion yuan, down 78% year-on-year, resulting in an adjusted EBITA margin of 3.7%. The non-GAAP net profit was 10.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 71.7% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 4.2% [1][9] - Free cash flow for the quarter was a net outflow of 21.8 billion yuan, primarily due to increased investments in flash sales and cloud infrastructure [1][9] Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - The Chinese e-commerce group's CMR revenue grew by 10% year-on-year in FY26Q2, benefiting from increased technology service fees and improved site penetration rates. Instant retail revenue reached 22.9 billion yuan, up 60% year-on-year [2][13] - The adjusted EBITA for the Chinese e-commerce group was 10.5 billion yuan, down 76% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 7.9%, a decline of 31 percentage points [2][14] - The company is focusing on optimizing user experience while maintaining market share, with logistics costs significantly reduced compared to previous large-scale investments [2][14] Cloud Computing - The cloud intelligence group's revenue for FY26Q2 was 39.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34%. Overall revenue, excluding intercompany transactions, grew by 29% year-on-year, with AI-related product revenue continuing to show triple-digit growth [3][15] - The adjusted EBITA margin for the cloud segment was 9.0%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous quarter. Capital expenditures (CAPEX) for the quarter were 31.5 billion yuan, up 70% year-on-year [3][15] - The company anticipates a strong demand for AI over the next three years, with potential for additional CAPEX investments beyond the planned 380 billion yuan [3][15] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been slightly adjusted to 1,046.3 billion yuan, 1,182.3 billion yuan, and 1,293.0 billion yuan, respectively, with minor downward adjustments due to a focus on profitability in international e-commerce [4][25] - Adjusted net profit projections for FY2026 to FY2028 are set at 111.7 billion yuan, 145.0 billion yuan, and 172.0 billion yuan, with slight adjustments reflecting better-than-expected profit improvement in international e-commerce [4][25] - The company is currently trading at a PE ratio of 24 times for FY2026 [4][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][13] Core Insights - The company has experienced rapid revenue and profit growth driven by original research drugs, and this trend is expected to continue long-term [1][6] - For FY2026, the company projects a revenue growth of 10-15% year-on-year, with a mid-year revenue of 167 billion yuan, representing a 17% increase compared to the previous year [1][6] - The adjusted net profit for FY2025 was 14 billion yuan, a 39% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 8.1% [2][7] Revenue Summary - The company's self-operated pharmaceutical revenue reached 143 billion yuan in FY2026, up 19% year-on-year, largely due to a 99% increase in SKU supply for B2C retail products [1][6] - E-commerce platform service revenue was 18 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year, with advertising revenue growing over 10% [1][6] - The medical health and digital services segment generated 5 billion yuan, also reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [1][6] Profit Summary - The adjusted net profit margin improved to 8.1% in FY2025, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.1% [2][7] - The company has reduced its fulfillment cost ratio to 8.2%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [2][7] - For FY2026, the company anticipates a net profit growth of 20-30% year-on-year, with a mid-year profit projection of 1-21% [2][7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 have been adjusted to 348 billion, 379 billion, and 410 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a 4% increase from previous estimates [3][13] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 25 billion, 30 billion, and 34 billion yuan, also a 6% increase from prior estimates [3][13] - The current stock price corresponds to a FY2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 37 times [3][13]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2025年11月28日 证券研究报告 | 服务主导新周期 ——对"十五五"中国经济趋势的判断 经济研究 · 宏观专题 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：田地 证券分析师：董德志 0755-22940456 0755-81982035 021-60933158 lizn@guosen.com.cn tiandi2@guosen.com.cn dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 S0980524090003 S0980513100001 2025年我国经济的三个显著趋势 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2025年节奏：冲刺起跑，逐季回落 图："反内卷"政策取向下，我国第二产业显著放缓，第三产业韧性凸显 图："开局即决战"思路下，今年我国经济总体呈前高后低态势 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 资料来源：Macrobond、国信证券经济研究所整理 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 面对外部风险，今年在"开局即决战，起步即冲刺"部署下，Q1紧抓"窗 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月28日 2026年财政政策展望 ——"开门红"下的积极续力 经济研究 · 宏观专题 0755-81982035 S0980524090003 S0980525110002 证券分析师：田地 证券分析师：王奕群 tiandi2@guosen.com.cn wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 收入端：税收收入逆势回暖 今年财政运行特征：前高后低 图：税收回暖，非税下滑 图：印花税表现较好，四大主要税种都在正增长 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 目前财政收入处于回升通道，1-10月增速0.8%，高于预算（0.1%）。 • 税收收入持续回暖，与经济数据有所分化。税收收入的增速今年整体呈现波动回升的趋势，到10月累计同比来到1.7%。 其中个人所得税11.5%，增值税4.0%，消费税2.4%，企业所得税1.9%。 • 非税收入持续下行。一是激励，去年基数较高，主要是缺口较大，地 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the PCB industry [2]. Core Insights - The industry is entering a new AI-driven cycle, fundamentally changing demand structures. The construction of AI server clusters is leading to simultaneous upgrades in PCB demand and pricing. The expected market for wired communication PCBs will reach 206.9 billion RMB by 2027, with a CAGR of 20% over the next two years [4]. - High-end PCBs are expected to remain in tight supply until 2027, with major global manufacturers expanding production aggressively. The combined output of 13 leading PCB manufacturers is projected to reach 186 billion RMB by 2027, with a CAGR of 54% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. - The trend towards high-end PCB manufacturing is accelerating due to technological iterations and material upgrades. The industry is expected to see a three-pronged evolution in materials, processes, and architectures driven by AI [4]. - The demand surge and profit improvement in upstream materials present opportunities for domestic substitution. The price of copper-clad laminates has risen significantly, and domestic manufacturers are making notable progress in high-end materials [4]. - The PCB industry is experiencing a long-term trend of simultaneous growth in volume, price, and structure, driven by AI. The report recommends focusing on leading companies with high-end manufacturing capabilities and overseas delivery layouts [4]. Summary by Sections AI-Driven Growth - The AI cycle is expected to drive significant growth in PCB demand, particularly in AI servers, high-speed switches, and optical modules. The total market for wired communication PCBs is projected to reach 1,433 billion RMB by 2025 and 1,815 billion RMB by 2026 [19]. Production Capacity Expansion - Major PCB manufacturers are announcing aggressive expansion plans, with significant investments in new production facilities in Southeast Asia and domestic high-end capacity [15]. Technological Advancements - The report highlights the rapid adoption of mSAP technology in AI servers and switches, which is essential for meeting the demands of high-density signal transmission [4][21]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the global PCB market is expected to face a supply-demand gap of nearly 20 billion RMB by 2026, although this gap is anticipated to narrow by 2027 [19]. Key Players - The report identifies leading companies such as Huada Technology, Jingwang Electronics, and Shenghong Technology as key players to watch in the PCB industry due to their high-end manufacturing capabilities and strategic expansion plans [4].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the positioning of the ChiNext board as focusing on "three innovations and four new" initiatives, supporting innovative and high-growth SMEs since its inception, with a total of 1,390 listed stocks and a market capitalization of 16.49 trillion RMB as of November 21, 2025 [10][12][51] - Continuous policy support has led to a high concentration of specialized and innovative "little giant" companies, with 1,117 such companies listed, of which 420 are on the ChiNext board, accounting for 37.60% of the total [20][51] - Institutional funds have shown high interest, with the total market value of actively managed equity funds holding ChiNext component stocks increasing, maintaining a share of over 17% in recent years [24][51] Group 2 - The ChiNext Composite Index (399102.SZ) encompasses all stocks listed on the ChiNext board, reflecting the overall price changes and market trends [52] - The average market capitalization of the ChiNext Composite Index is 13.034 billion RMB, significantly lower than that of the ChiNext Index and ChiNext 50, with 26.44% of its component stocks having a market cap of less than 10 billion RMB [31][52] - The industry concentration of the ChiNext Composite Index is low, with a balanced allocation across high-growth sectors such as new energy, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and computing [34][52] Group 3 - The valuation of the ChiNext Composite Index is at a low level, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 62.64 and a price-to-book ratio of 4.04, both below historical median levels [38][52] - The expected compound annual growth rate of net profit for the ChiNext Composite Index over the next two years is 39.92%, outperforming the ChiNext Index and ChiNext 50 [40][52] - The index has a strong risk-return profile, with an annualized return of 8.99% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.44, indicating a favorable risk-return balance compared to the ChiNext Index and ChiNext 50 [45][53]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from its diversified layout and the addition of new product lines, particularly in the storage sector, which is projected to experience a recovery in the latter half of 2025 [3][28]. - The company achieved a revenue of 1.433 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.89%, despite a significant decline in net profit due to various factors [1][22]. - The company plans to indirectly acquire a 31% stake in Zhuhai Noah Changtian Storage Technology Co., Ltd., which will enhance its product line in 2D NAND and expand its overseas sales network [3][27]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 527 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.94% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.24% [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 28.14%, down 4.51 percentage points year-on-year and 2.54 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company expects improvements in gross margin as the storage industry recovers and product prices stabilize [1][22]. Product Lines and Market Position - The company specializes in non-volatile memory chips, including NOR Flash and EEPROM, and is a major supplier in China [9][12]. - The "Storage+" product line, which includes MCU products, has seen a revenue increase of 35.62% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [14][28]. - The company is expanding its product offerings to include high-performance storage products through the acquisition of SkyHigh Memory Limited, which is expected to position the company as a leader in the 2D NAND market [3][27]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 20.18 billion yuan, 25.43 billion yuan, and 31.70 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 26%, and 25% [30][32]. - The projected net profits for the same years are 114 million yuan, 351 million yuan, and 429 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery in profitability [33][34].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the positioning of the ChiNext board as focusing on "three innovations and four new" initiatives, supporting innovative and high-growth SMEs since its inception, with a total of 1,390 listed stocks and a market capitalization of 16.49 trillion RMB as of November 21, 2025 [10][12][51] - Continuous policy support has led to a high concentration of specialized and innovative "little giant" companies, with 1,117 such companies listed, of which 420 are on the ChiNext board, accounting for 37.60% of the total [20][51] - Institutional investment interest is high, with active equity funds holding a total market value of 358.34 billion RMB in ChiNext component stocks, representing over 23.72% of their total holdings as of Q3 2025 [24][51] Group 2 - The ChiNext Composite Index (399102.SZ) encompasses all stocks listed on the ChiNext board, reflecting the overall market trend and price changes [52] - The average market capitalization of the ChiNext Composite Index is 13.034 billion RMB, significantly lower than that of the ChiNext Index and ChiNext 50, with 26.44% of its component stocks having a market cap below 1 billion RMB [31][52] - The industry concentration of the ChiNext Composite Index is low, with a balanced allocation across high-growth sectors such as new energy, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and computing [34][52] Group 3 - The valuation of the ChiNext Composite Index is currently low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 62.64 and a price-to-book ratio of 4.04, both below historical median levels, while the expected compound net profit growth rate over the next two years is 39.92%, outperforming other indices [38][40][52] - The risk-return profile of the ChiNext Composite Index is notable, with an annualized return of 8.99% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.44, indicating a favorable risk-return balance compared to the ChiNext Index and ChiNext 50 [45][53]

- The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify investment hotspots. The model is based on momentum and trend-following strategies, inspired by research from George (2004) and methodologies like CANSLIM and "Stock Wizard". The calculation formula is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price hits a new high, the distance equals 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of fallback from the peak price [11][19][23] - The report evaluates the model positively, emphasizing its ability to capture market trends and identify leading stocks in various industries and sectors. It highlights the effectiveness of momentum strategies and the importance of tracking stocks that consistently hit new highs [11][18][23] - The report provides backtesting results for the "250-day new high distance" model. As of November 28, 2025, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, ChiNext Index, and STAR 50 Index have respective distances of 3.50%, 5.40%, 4.66%, 6.85%, 4.10%, 2.78%, 8.17%, and 13.77% from their 250-day highs [12][31][32] - The report introduces a factor-based stock selection methodology for identifying "stable new high stocks". The factors include analyst attention (at least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months), relative stock strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), price path smoothness (measured by price displacement ratio), and trend sustainability (average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past 5 days). Stocks are ranked based on these criteria, and the top 50% are selected [23][26][27] - The report evaluates the factor-based methodology positively, citing research by Turan G Bali et al. (2011) and Da, Gurun et al. (2012) that demonstrate the superior performance of stocks with smooth price paths and strong momentum effects [23][26][27] - Backtesting results for the factor-based methodology show that 26 stocks were selected as "stable new high stocks" for the week ending November 28, 2025. These include stocks from sectors such as cyclical industries (e.g., non-ferrous metals), manufacturing (e.g., construction), and others. Examples include Zhongji Xuchuang, Guangku Technology, and Zhongkuang Resources [27][30][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental protection sectors [5][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that coal and electricity prices are declining simultaneously, which is expected to maintain reasonable profitability for thermal power [22]. - Continuous government policies supporting renewable energy development are anticipated to lead to gradually stable profitability in renewable energy generation [22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the new retail pricing mechanism in Sichuan's electricity market, which is expected to enhance the integration of commercial storage resources by virtual power plants [18][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.77%, while the public utility index dropped by 4.33% and the environmental index decreased by 6.02% [15][25]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power declined by 4.68%, hydropower by 1.44%, and renewable energy generation by 5.67% [15][26]. Important Events - The Ministry of Finance has allocated the first batch of ecological and environmental protection funds for 2026, totaling 40 billion yuan for integrated protection projects, 153 billion yuan for ecological restoration of abandoned mines, and 136 billion yuan for marine ecological protection projects [16][17]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][22]. - The report suggests focusing on water and waste incineration sectors, which are entering maturity with improved free cash flow, and highlights investment opportunities in companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [23]. - The report also points out the potential in the domestic waste oil recycling industry due to the EU's SAF blending policy, recommending companies like Shangaohuaneng [23]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for various companies, indicating a positive outlook for those in the public utility and environmental sectors [8].