Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The recent US-China Geneva talks have led to a positive consensus, with expectations for the export chain to recover as both sides agree to reduce tariffs significantly [1][19] - The 2025 "618" mid-year shopping festival has commenced, with major e-commerce platforms implementing strategies to stimulate consumer spending through simplified rules and increased subsidies [2][19] Summary by Sections Industry & Company Dynamics - The US has committed to canceling 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modifying 34% of reciprocal tariffs, while China will suspend or cancel corresponding tariffs on US goods [1][19] - The 618 shopping festival has seen platforms like Tmall and JD.com launching pre-sales and promotional strategies, with domestic brands showing strong growth [2][19] - Key investment themes include the return of offline traffic, AI technology upgrades, and the increasing willingness of consumers to pay for emotional value [3][58] Investment Recommendations - Focus on five investment themes: 1. Offline traffic recovery with beneficiaries including Yonghui Supermarket and Kidswant [3][58] 2. Continuous upgrades in AI technology with beneficiaries like Focus Technology and Aosheng Technology [3][58] 3. High-performing new retail sectors with beneficiaries such as Miniso and Pop Mart [3][58] 4. Recovery of cyclical sectors under domestic demand stimulation with beneficiaries like Mixue Group and Haidilao [3][58] 5. Expanding overseas consumption opportunities with beneficiaries including Miaow Exhibition and Anker Innovations [3][58] Macro & Industry Data - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.9% year-on-year, indicating a stable and improving consumption market [35][36] - The online retail penetration rate increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, with online retail sales of physical goods growing by 14.9% [36][40]

Market Review - The recent decrease in bilateral tariffs between China and the US has boosted market risk appetite, leading to a global stock market rally, with the Nasdaq rising by 7.2%. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above 3400 points in the first half of the week, driven by large financial stocks, followed by a volume-adjusted pullback in the latter half. The beauty care, non-bank financial, and transportation sectors led the gains, while TMT and military industries lagged behind. International crude oil prices increased, while gold prices fell, and domestic coking coal prices continued to weaken. Concerns about a US economic recession have eased, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to 4.5% [1][2]. Market Outlook - The influx of long-term insurance capital into the market is expected to sustain the "steady progress" trend in A-shares. The recent tariff reductions have improved short-term market risk appetite and fundamental expectations, allowing major A-share indices to break through the gap from early April. However, concerns about the volatility of tariffs remain, as the 30% tariffs imposed by the US on China earlier this year are still in place. Moving forward, A-shares are anticipated to remain in a steady upward trend amidst fluctuations, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing and activating the capital market, such as the third batch of long-term insurance capital investment trials and reforms in public fund management fees [2][3]. Economic Fundamentals - The restoration of bilateral tariffs to "tradeable" levels post-China-US negotiations is expected to enhance global trade demand and economic growth expectations. The recent US inflation data for April was below market expectations, indicating a delayed impact of tariffs on "hard data." Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted from July to September, with the 10-year US Treasury yield returning to 4.5%. In China, the export growth rate for April was 8.1%, exceeding market expectations, supported by "export diversion," despite a 21% year-on-year decline in direct exports to the US. The reduction in tariffs is likely to continue supporting exports in May and June, significantly mitigating the impact of external demand on the domestic economy [2][3]. Key Focus Areas 1. The easing of tariffs has temporarily boosted risk appetite, but the upcoming phase two negotiations between China and the US remain critical. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have seen profit-taking as the initial positive effects of tariff reductions have been priced in. The current A-share and Hong Kong indices have returned to pre-tariff levels, with the overall A-share index's price-to-earnings ratio recovering to above the ten-year median. The net outflow of southbound funds on May 12 indicates rising profit-taking sentiment among investors [3][4]. 2. The third batch of long-term insurance capital investment trials has been implemented, which is expected to inject additional capital into A-shares. The Financial Regulatory Bureau has proposed specific measures to stabilize the stock market, including expanding the trial scope of long-term insurance capital investments by an additional 60 billion yuan, bringing the total trial scale to 222 billion yuan. Recent reforms are anticipated to enhance the investment capacity of insurance funds in equities [4]. 3. Policies aimed at stabilizing and activating the capital market are being introduced to optimize the investment ecosystem in A-shares. The public fund reform, which includes the introduction of performance-based floating fee rate funds, is expected to strengthen the alignment of interests between public funds and investors, encouraging a focus on long-term investment returns. Additionally, the revised regulations on major asset restructuring for listed companies are expected to enhance market activity in mergers and acquisitions [4][5]. Industry Allocation - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, with a focus on public utilities, innovative pharmaceuticals, and "new consumption" sectors. The report suggests paying attention to themes such as military industry, self-sufficiency, and mergers and acquisitions [5].

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 周专题： 4 月清洁电器增长强劲，中美同步大幅降低双边 关税 [Table_Title2] 家电行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 周专题： 4 月清洁电器景气延续，量价齐升。根据奥维云网数据， 2025 年 4 月扫地机线上销额 10 亿元，同比+81%，线上销量 30 万台，同比+74%，线上均价 3340 元/台，同比+3.5%； 2025 年 4 月洗地机线上销额 6.9 亿元，同比+82%，线上销量 34 万台，同比+82%，线上均价 2043 元/台，同比+0.1%。 分品牌来看，科沃斯、石头表现亮眼，份额稳居前列。根据 奥维云网数据，2025 年 4 月，科沃斯、石头扫地机线上销额 分别同比+98%、+72%，市占率分别为 25%、26%；添可、石头 洗地机线上销额分别同比+39%、+1065%，市占率分别为 31%、19%。 北京时间 5 月 12 日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》 （下称《联合声明》）公布。根据《联合声明》，中美双方 承诺将于 2025 年 5 月 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The recent US-China Geneva talks have led to a positive consensus, with expectations for the export chain to recover as both sides agree to reduce tariffs significantly [1][21] - The 2025 "618" mid-year shopping festival has commenced, with major e-commerce platforms implementing strategies to stimulate consumer spending through simplified rules and increased subsidies [2][21] Summary by Sections Industry & Company Dynamics - The US has committed to canceling 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modifying 34% of reciprocal tariffs, while China will suspend or cancel corresponding tariffs on US goods [1][21] - The 618 shopping festival has seen platforms like Tmall and JD.com launching pre-sales and promotional strategies to attract consumers, with domestic brands showing strong growth [2][21] - Key investment themes include the return of offline traffic, AI technology upgrades, and the increasing willingness of consumers to pay for emotional value [3][64] Investment Recommendations - Focus on five investment themes: 1. Traditional retail sectors revitalizing due to returning foot traffic, with beneficiaries including Yonghui Supermarket and Kidswant [3][64] 2. Continuous upgrades in AI technology benefiting companies like Focus Technology and Aosheng Technology [3][64] 3. High-performing new retail sectors, with companies like Miniso and Pop Mart expected to outperform [3][64] 4. Cyclical sectors recovering from low levels, with companies like Mixue and Haidilao as potential beneficiaries [3][64] 5. Opportunities in overseas consumption, with support for domestic brands expanding internationally, focusing on companies like Miaow Exhibition and Anker Innovations [3][64] Macro & Industry Data - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.9% year-on-year, indicating a stable and improving consumption market [40][41] - Online retail sales accounted for 24.0% of total retail sales, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points [41][41] - The jewelry sector saw a decline in gold consumption, with a total of 985.31 tons consumed in 2024, reflecting a 9.58% decrease year-on-year [57][57]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The continuous advancement of 5G-A and AI technologies is expected to deeply unleash the potential of network connectivity, enabling operators to transition from a "traffic management" model to a "differentiated experience management" model [1][8] - The construction of the computing power internet experimental network aims to interconnect various computing resources, facilitating user access to computing power [1][7] Summary by Sections 1. 5G-A and AI Technology Advancement - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes accelerating the development of 5G-A and 6G technologies to empower modern industrial systems [1][7] - The IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group has identified six application scenarios for 5G-A, including immersive real-time, intelligent uplink, industrial interconnection, integrated sensing, massive IoT, and space-ground integration [7] 2. Investment Recommendations - The commercialization of 5.5G networks is expected to catalyze upstream components such as antennas, filters, high-end PCBs, and optical modules, benefiting companies like ZTE, Tongyu Communication, and others [2][8] - Continuous attention is recommended for application areas such as RedCap modules, integrated sensing, satellite communication, and XR, with potential beneficiaries identified [3][9] 3. Recent Market Views and Recommendations - The current environment shows high volatility, with wireless capital expenditures declining, but the computing power sector is expected to support performance recovery [11] - Key recommendations include focusing on computing power and communication infrastructure, optical network upgrades, and edge computing, with specific beneficiary companies listed [12][13]

Trade Relations and Economic Indicators - The significant reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. has improved trade expectations, with the U.S. comprehensive tariff rate on China remaining around 40%[2] - April export data exceeded expectations, but PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, indicating underlying economic weaknesses[2] - New loan issuance in April was below expectations, with cumulative new household loans in the first four months at a near ten-year low[2] Market Trends and Monetary Policy - The bond market has entered a defensive phase, with yields generally rising; the 10-year government bond yield increased to 1.68% (+5bp) and the 30-year yield to 1.88% (+4bp)[11] - Market sentiment is shifting towards a "trend over volatility" approach, delaying expectations for further interest rate cuts until after Q2 data is released in July[2] - The likelihood of a return to a tight funding environment similar to Q1 is low due to several factors, including stable bank liabilities and a supportive central bank stance[3] Investment Strategy and Bond Valuation - The bond market is expected to experience a period of volatility, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.7%[26] - In the short-term, the focus should be on evaluating price-performance ratios, particularly in the 1-3 year bond segment, which currently shows a high liquidity advantage[26] - For mid-term bonds (5-7 years), the pricing uncertainty is moderate, while the 10-year agricultural development bonds offer attractive spreads[6] Financial Products and Risk Assessment - The total scale of wealth management products decreased by 771 billion yuan to 31.49 trillion yuan, reflecting a seasonal decline[32] - The proportion of wealth management products with negative returns has slightly increased to 1.96%, but remains relatively low compared to historical levels[38] - The overall performance of wealth management products not meeting expectations has decreased to 17.4%, indicating improved performance across various institutions[44]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 投资者保护再迎新规 [Table_Title2] 非银金融周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: 本周（2025. 5.11-2025. 5.17）A 股日均交易额 12,4 76 亿元，环比减少 7.8%，同比增加 44 .4%。20 25 年二季度至今 日均成交额 12,5 66 亿元,较 2024 年二季度日均交易额增加 51.7%。202 5 年至今日均成交额 14,31 7 亿元,较 2024 年日均 交易额增加 64.3 %。投行：本周无新股发行；本周上市新股 3 家，募集资金 13.0 亿元。2025 年至今，A 股 I PO 上市 40 家，募集金额 260. 5 亿元。2024 年，A 股 IPO 上市 10 0 家， 募集金额 673 .5 亿元。两融：截至 202 5 年 5 月 15 日，两市 两融余额 18, 084.9 7 亿元，环比减少 0.01 %，较 202 4 年日均 水平增加 15. 41%。两市融券余额 117.68 亿元，占两融比例为 0.65 ...

Market Review - From May 12 to 16, the Wande All A index closed at 5107.73, up 0.72% from May 9, while the China Convertible Bond Index rose 0.32%[9] - The significant reduction in tariffs and the "fund reallocation" narrative drove market performance, particularly in the shipping sector, which saw the Wande Shipping Index and Port Index increase by 7.64% and 4.62%, respectively[12][15] - The U.S. and China agreed to significantly lower tariffs, with China's tariffs on U.S. imports dropping from 125% to 10% and the U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports decreasing from 145% to 30%[12] Global Insights - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions boosted global risk appetite, leading to a substantial rise in U.S. stock markets, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones increasing by 7.15%, 5.27%, and 3.41%, respectively[32] - Gold prices fell by 4.7% to $3187.2 per ounce, nearing pre-tariff levels, while U.S. Treasury yields rose, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets[32][34] Strategy Recommendations - The market is expected to adopt a defensive posture, focusing on dividend stocks and sectors like consumption and technology, as volatility remains low[36][40] - The consumer sector is gaining traction, with a moderate increase in trading volume, while the technology sector is currently underperforming but may present mid-term opportunities[42][43] Convertible Bond Insights - Convertible bonds have seen a decline in valuation, particularly in equity-linked bonds, as the market remains focused on large-cap stocks[25] - The valuation for convertible bonds at an 80 yuan parity is 46.27%, while at 100 yuan parity, it is 26.09%, reflecting a slight decrease in market confidence[25][30]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,367.46 points, up 0.76%[1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,179.60 points, up 0.52%[1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2,039.45 points, up 1.38%[1] - The large-cap index rose by 1.15% to 3,458.7 points, while the small-cap index fell by 0.27% to 4,416.64 points, resulting in a small-cap to large-cap index ratio of 1.28[1] Overseas Market Trends - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,654.74 points, up 3.41%[2] - The S&P 500 Index closed at 5,958.38 points, up 5.27%[2] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 19,211.10 points, up 7.15%[2] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,345.05 points, up 2.08%[2] Industry Highlights - The low-altitude economy is gaining momentum with the establishment of the International Low Altitude Economy Cooperation Alliance on May 16[3] - The central air traffic management committee has issued special measures to support the low-altitude economy, indicating new opportunities for development[6] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Yingboer, which has integrated chip technology suitable for eVTOL systems and has established partnerships with leading companies in the low-altitude economy[6] - Other sectors to watch include military trade potential, low-altitude infrastructure, and composite materials[7][8] Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic downturns, underperformance of new industries, and exchange rate fluctuations[10]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 17 日 海内外 AI 共振，坚定看好算力 [Table_Title2] 计算机行业周报 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 大厂一季度财报发布，AI 资本支出上升 5 月 15 日晚间，阿里巴巴发布了 2025 财年第四财季（截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日止季度）及全年财报，全年收入 2364.54 亿元，略低 于市场预估的 2379.1 亿元；淘天集团来自中国零售商业的收入同 比增长 8%，客户管理收入同比增长 12%，变现率显著提升；阿里巴 巴云智能集团季度收入同比增长 18%，达到 301.27 亿元，创下三 年来的最快增速。一季度阿里提升 AI 资本性支出，因此我们看好 国产算力租赁。 5 月 14 日，腾讯公布最新业绩，第一季度营收和利润同比上涨， 主要得益于其主要游戏业务的加速增长一季报显示，第一季度营 收为 1,800.2 亿元人民币，同比增长 13%，预估为 1,756 亿元人民 币；第一季度公司权益持有人应占盈利（净利润）为 478.2 亿元人 民币，同比增长 14%，预估为 516.9 亿元人民币； ...