证券研究报告|行业研究周报 882 [Table_Date] 2024 年 9 月 21 日 [Table_Title] NIKE 换帅，退休四年的元老出任新 CEO | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 2024 年 9 月 20 日 e_Title] 学大教育子公司岳阳育盛拟投资 7.2-8.1 亿元建设 高职 [Table_Title2] 教育行业周报 20240916-20240920 [Table_Summary] 本周观点 9.12 学大教育补充对"岳阳育盛"的投资资料，岳阳育 盛和高职学校预计总投资为人民币 7.2 亿元至人民币 8.1 亿 元,包括建设费用、装修费用，不包括岳阳育盛取得办学场地 的土地使用权的购置成本。岳阳育盛已取得办学场地的土地 使用权，该办学场地面积为 31 万平方米。我们分析:1）9 月 19 日，岳阳现代服务职业学院举行 2024 级新生开学暨新校区 落成典礼，共占地 469 亩，建筑面积约 16.6 万平方米，开设 专业 17 个，在校生人数 5300 余人（其中 24 级新生 3800 余 名，报到率84%），2025年秋季开学可达万人规模，明年具有 翻倍空间。2）学院先后与奇瑞、京东、新紫光等知名企业开 展深度合作，为深化产教融合探索了新模式。3）岳阳市委、 市政府将一如既往支持学院建设，不断提升政策能级和服务 水平，用心用情为学校排忧解 ...

证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Title] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Title2] 跨季，又迎 8000 亿+政府债缴款 [Table_Summary] ► 概况：税期资金面明显收紧，跨季面临多重挑战 税期资金面明显收紧，隔夜利率上行至 2.02%。9 月并非传统大税期，但 和缴税规模更大的 7 月相比，资金利率上行幅度更大，当时隔夜利率最多 上行不超过 2%。 跨季面临的挑战颇多。一是超出预期的 8000 亿+巨额政府债净缴款；二是 1.8 万亿的逆回购到期；三是银行体系融出意愿不高。 当然，也有偏利好的因素，一是 25 日 MLF 续作，参考 8 月的经验，同时 从大行近期储备大量短期国债的情况来看，央行可能会继续使用买卖国债 操作置换一部分 MLF；二是月末财政资金的释出。 总体而言，9 月 23-29 日面临 8000 亿+政府债净缴款和 1.8 万亿的逆回购 到期，预计央行会使用逆回购续作的方式填补这部分资金缺口。不过 25- 27 日，随着 MLF 的续作、潜在的央行买债投放以及财政支出的释出，或 使得资金面紧张的状态边际好转。因此，我们预计 9 月 23-24 日资金面可 能会维持 ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2024 年 09 月 19 日 [Table_Title] 股票期权激励草案发布，彰显长期发展信心 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|----------------------|-----------------------|-------------| | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 002557 | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 37.48/23.67 | | | 目标价格： 总市值(亿 | ) | 138.41 | | 最新收盘价： | 27.30 | 自由流通市值(亿 ) | 138.41 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万 ) | 507.00 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司发布 2024 年股票期权激励计划(草案)，拟向激励对象授予 478 万份股票期权，占公司股本总额的 0.94%，首次授予的股票期权的行权价格(含预留)为 19.97 元/份，首次授予的激励对象总人数为 29 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] [Table_Date] 2024 年 09 月 19 日 [Table_Title] 美联储意外降息 50bp，摸着石头过河 9 月 19 日，美联储意外降息 50bp，降至 4.75-5.0%。在经济预测中下调 2024 年美国 GDP 增长预期至 2.0%，前值 2.1%，2025-26 维持 2.0%；下调 2024 年核心 PCE 通胀预期至 2.6%，前值 2.8%，2025 从 2.3% 下修至 2.2%，2026 维持 2.0%。如何看待本轮首次降息释放的货币政策信号？ 第一，美联储降息幅度超出市场预期，或属补偿式，而非前瞻式。美联储会议前，CME FedWatch 给出的 降息 50bp 概率为 55%，降息 25bp 概率为 45%，市场预期处于模棱两可之间。如何理解美联储意外降息 50bp？我们从三个角度来看，一是鲍威尔在记者会上未正面回应为什么降 50bp。可能是最近三个月的非农数据 疲软以及下修，让美联储感到存在降息过晚的风险，因而要在 9 月加大幅度进行补偿式降息。二是美联储下次会 议在 11 ...

[Table_Date] 2024 年 9 月 19 日 [Table_Title] 靴子落地，美联储降息 50bp [Table_Title2] ——9 月美联储议息会议点评 [Table_Summary] 事件概述 北京时间 9 月 19 日凌晨 2 时，美联储公布 2024 年 9 月 FOMC 会议声明。相关点评如下： 主要观点 ► 美联储操作：美联储降息 50BP，开启降息周期 美联储降息 50BP，开启降息周期。美联储 9 月议息会议宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 4.75%至 5.00% 之间（下调 50bp），一定程度上超出了市场预期，开启自 2020 年 3 月 16 日以来首次降息。 缩表按原计划推进。此次 FOMC 会议仍表明会继续按之前节奏实施缩表，缩减规模 600 亿美元，其中包括 250 亿 美元国债和 350 亿美元 MBS。 ► 议息会议声明：增加了对于支持就业的承诺 ► 鲍威尔表态：本应在 7 月开启降息，未来政策节奏依靠数据 会后的新闻发布会鲍威尔对于降息、通胀、经济衰退风险以及缩表等问题进行了回应： 证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 从会议声明的表述来看，美联储继续将经济活 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating for the gold market during the period of 1960-1981 [1] Core Views - The report provides a detailed historical analysis of gold price movements from 1960 to 1981, focusing on key macroeconomic events and their impact on gold prices [1] - The analysis is divided into three main periods: 1960-1971, 1971-1975, and 1975-1981, each marked by significant economic and geopolitical events that influenced gold prices [2][3][4] Summary by Sections 1960-1971: The Rise of Inflation and the Loosening of Gold-Dollar Peg - The first dollar crisis in 1960 led to a surge in gold prices as investors sold dollars and bought gold [2] - The Vietnam War and expansionary fiscal policies in the US contributed to rising inflation and unemployment, leading to a significant federal deficit of $25.4 billion in 1968, the largest since WWII [2] - The introduction of the "two-tier gold system" in 1968 separated official gold transactions from private market prices, allowing gold prices to fluctuate freely in the private market [6] 1971-1975: The End of the Bretton Woods System and the Start of a Gold Price Rally - The collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, marked by the US closing the gold window, triggered a gold price rally, with prices rising nearly 190% from 1972 to early 1975 [3] - The first oil crisis in 1973, caused by OPEC's 70% oil price hike, further fueled inflation and economic stagnation in the US, leading to a temporary peak in gold prices [3] 1975-1981: The Second Oil Crisis and a Gold Bull Market - The second oil crisis, triggered by the Iranian Revolution in 1978, led to a sharp increase in oil prices and a subsequent gold bull market, with gold prices rising over 350% from 1977 to 1980 [4] - Geopolitical events, such as the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Iran-Iraq War, further heightened global uncertainty, driving gold prices to new highs [4] - The Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary tightening under Chairman Volcker led to a recession in 1980, with inflation peaking at 14.5% and unemployment exceeding 7.5% [4] 1970-1981: Copper, Aluminum, and Silver Price Review - The report briefly mentions the price movements of copper, aluminum, and silver during the 1970s, noting that these metals were also influenced by the same macroeconomic and geopolitical factors that affected gold [5][42][44] Key Economic Indicators and Gold Price Correlation - The report highlights the correlation between gold prices and key economic indicators such as inflation, unemployment, and federal deficits during the 1960s and 1970s [9][13][15][25][38] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly interest rate adjustments, played a significant role in shaping gold price trends during this period [9][30] Geopolitical Events and Gold Price Impact - Major geopolitical events, including the Vietnam War, the Iranian Revolution, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, had a profound impact on gold prices, often driving them higher due to increased global uncertainty [2][4][28] Oil Crises and Gold Price Surges - Both the first and second oil crises were pivotal in driving gold prices higher, as they led to significant inflationary pressures and economic instability, increasing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4][36]

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2024 年 09 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 结构升级韧性仍在，盈利能力稳中有升 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|------------------------|-----------------------|------------| | [Table_DataInfo] | 评级： 买入 股票代码： | | 600600 | | 上次评级： 买入 | | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 91.3/53.94 | | 目标价格： | 总市值(亿) | | 736.12 | | 最新收盘价： | 53.96 | 自由流通市值 (亿) | 382.59 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万 ) | 709.03 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司24H1营业收入200.68亿元，同比-7.1%，归母净利润36.42亿元，同比+6.3%，扣非归母净利润34.27 亿元，同比+6.15%。据此推算，公司 24Q2 营业收入 99.2 亿元，同比-8.89%，归母净利润 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 10.78 per share, reflecting a potential upside from the current market price [1][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 2.927 billion in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 308 million, down 13.8% year-on-year. The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 292 million, with a payout ratio of 94.87% [1][2]. - The performance of hot pot base materials remained stable, with significant growth in compound seasonings and instant food segments, driven by new product launches and improved channel management [2]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 30.0%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to price reductions on products sold to related parties. The net profit margin fell by 3.2 percentage points to 10.5% [3]. - The company emphasizes its high dividend investment value, supported by strong cash flow and low financial pressure, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company is projected to generate total revenue of HKD 6.870 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.75%. The net profit is expected to be HKD 815.1 million, reflecting a decline of 4.41% [7][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at HKD 0.79, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.61 based on the closing price of HKD 10.78 [5][8]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a stable gross margin of around 30.51% to 31.58% over the next few years, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of approximately 18% by 2026 [7][8].

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2024 年 09 月 17 日 [Table_Title] 线上渠道高增，盈利能力提升 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|------------------------|-----------------------|-----------| | | | | | | [Table_DataInfo] | 评级： 买入 股票代码： | | 603317 | | 上次评级： 买入 | | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 15.2/8.53 | | | 目标价格： 总市值(亿 | ) | 91.17 | | 最新收盘价： | 8.56 | 自由流通市值(亿 ) | 91.06 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万 ) | 1,063.83 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司 24H1 实现营收 14.68 亿元，同比+3.0%，实现归母净利润 2.47 亿元，同比+18.8%，扣非归母净利润 2.10 亿元，同比+17.7%。据此推算，公司 24Q2 实现营收 6.14 亿元，同比-6.8 ...