证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Title2] 裕同科技(002831) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 002831 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 28.29/19.74 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 194.29 | | 最新收盘价： | 20.88 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 108.78 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 520.99 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 一季报，2024 年公司实现营收 171.57 亿元，同比增长 12.71%，归母净利润 14.09 亿 元，同比减少 2.05%，扣非后归母净利 15.14 亿元，同比增加 1.34%，归母净利润下滑主要系公司策略性处置武 汉艾特、广东鸿铭股权以及确认员工持股计划股份支付费用所致；单季度看，24Q4 公司实现营收 48.98 亿元，同 比增加 10.92%，归母净利润 2.95 亿元，同比减少 34.93%，扣非后归母净利 ...

[Table_Title] PMI 回到去年 8 月 证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 30 日 4 月 30 日，统计局发布 4 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.0%，预期 49.8%，前值 50.5%。非制造业 PMI 50.4%， 前值 50.8%。数据发布后， 10 年、30 年国债收益率短时下行 0.5bp 又被抹平，日内窄幅震荡。同时 A 股窄幅 波动，红利和周期品种行情承压，科技品种走强。 关注以下几个方面： 第一，受外部冲击影响，4 月 PMI 回落到去年 8 月附近。统计局称受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠 加外部环境急剧变化等因素影响，4 月制造业 PMI 回落至 49.0%，接近去年 8 月的 49.1%。拆分来看，新订单 和生产分项是主要拖累，分别较前月下滑 2.6 和 2.8 个百分点，拖累制造业 PMI 下滑 0.8、0.7 个百分点。新出 口订单回落 4.3 个百分点至 44.7%，是 2023 年初以来最低值。从业人员、供应商配送时间和原材料库存较前月 变化较小，对制造业变动影响均不到 0.1 个百分点。参考去年 8 月 PMI公 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported strong growth in new business and NBV, with a year-on-year increase of 67.9% in NBV for Q1 2025, driven by rapid growth in first-year premiums and improved business quality [2][3] - The total investment return rate improved year-on-year to 5.7%, while the comprehensive investment return rate faced pressure, decreasing to 2.8% [4] - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecasts, with projected revenues and net profits for 2025-2027 showing steady growth [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 334.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 58.82 billion, up 19.0% year-on-year [2] - The weighted average ROE for Q1 2025 was 6.68%, an increase of 1.71 percentage points year-on-year [2] New Business Value (NBV) - The company’s NBV for Q1 2025 was 67.9% higher than the previous year, primarily due to a significant increase in first-year premiums [3] - First-year premiums for long-term insurance reached 272.36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 149.6% [3] Investment Returns - The company’s investment assets grew to 16,876.97 billion, a 3.58% increase from the end of the previous year [4] - The fair value change profit for Q1 2025 was 30.13 billion, significantly lower than the 80.18 billion reported in Q1 2024, attributed to rising interest rates affecting bond values [4] Profit Forecasts - The company maintains its profit forecasts, expecting revenues of 1,326 billion, 1,349 billion, and 1,373 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] - Projected net profits for the same period are 262 billion, 267 billion, and 272 billion [5]

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 盈利能力稳步提升，Q1 业绩表现亮眼 [Table_Title2] 美的集团(000333) [Table_Summary] 事件概述 根据公告： 24 全年：营收收入实现 4091 亿元（YOY+9.5%），归母净利润 实现 385 亿元（YOY+14%），扣非归母净利润实现 357 亿元 （YOY+8.4%） 25Q1：营业总收入 1284 亿元（YOY+21%），归母 124 亿元 （YOY+38%），扣非后 127 亿元（YOY+38%）。 分析判断: ► 收入分业务： 24 全年： 25 年 Q1 分业务： （ 1 ）智能家居及其他（经 营业收入 倒算） 995 亿 元 （YOY+19%），其中智能家居同比 17%；COLMO 和东芝双高端品 牌的整体零售额同比增长超 55%； （2）新能源及工业技术 111 亿元（YOY+45%）； （3）智能建筑科技 99 亿元（YOY+20%），25Q1 完成对欧洲 Arbonia 的气候部门业务、东芝电梯中国控股权的收购； （4）机器人与自动化 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 39.5%, attributed to improved underwriting management and rising market interest rates [2][3] - The company's new business value (NBV) showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, indicating effective product transformation [3] - The company’s total investment assets grew by 3.1% compared to the end of the previous year, although the net investment yield decreased by 0.22 percentage points year-on-year [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1,101.77 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.9% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 288.02 billion yuan [2] - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) increased by 1.22 percentage points to 5.53% [2] New Business Value and Product Transformation - The NBV increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with new single premiums decreasing by 4.5% to 1,074.34 billion yuan [3] - The proportion of first-year premiums from floating income products rose significantly to 51.72% [3] Investment Performance - The company’s investment assets reached 68,191.73 billion yuan, with a net investment yield of 2.60% [4] - The fair value changes resulted in a loss of 2.434 billion yuan, a significant decline from the previous year [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains a positive outlook on the quality of liabilities, with revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 5,245/5,371/5,452 billion yuan and net profit forecasts at 1,059/1,085/1,101 billion yuan [5] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 3.75/3.84/3.90 yuan [5]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 4 月 30 日 [Table_Title] Greenbushes 锂矿 2025Q1 产销量分别同比增长 22%/100%至 34.1 万吨/36.6 万吨， 2025Q1 单位 现金生产成本同比下降 12%至 341 澳元/吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►锂业务 1、Greenbushes 锂矿（100%基础） 2025Q1 锂精矿生产量为 34.1 万吨，环比减少 13%，同比 增长 22%。环比产量下降反映了选矿厂产量下降和进料品位降 低，符合预期。 2025Q1 锂精矿销售量为 36.6 万吨，环比增长 17%，同比 增长 100%。环比销量增长，部分原因是由于港口拥堵，前一 季度的发货延迟至 2025 年 1 月。 Greenbushes 控股公司 Windfield Holdings 向 TLEA 支付 了 5610 万美元（8840 万澳元）的股息。 3 月份股息支付后，Windfield 季度末的现金余额为 4.243 亿美元（6.757 亿澳元），已 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [5]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a U3O8 production of 745,484 pounds, a 17% increase quarter-on-quarter, marking the highest quarterly output since the restart of the Langer Heinrich Mine (LHM) [1][2]. - The average realized price for U3O8 increased by 4% to $69.9 per pound in Q1 2025 [4]. - The company sold 872,435 pounds of U3O8 in Q1 2025, representing a 74% increase quarter-on-quarter, with sales exceeding production due to delivery timing under existing contracts [2]. Summary by Sections Production and Operations - The company’s U3O8 production in Q1 2025 reached 745,484 pounds, a record since the mine's restart, with total production exceeding 2 million pounds for the fiscal year to date [1][2]. - The average recovery rate at the plant was 88%, and the unit production cost decreased by 4% to $40.6 per pound [3][10]. - Despite significant rainfall causing operational disruptions, initial mining activities resumed by the end of the quarter, with plans to optimize the ore blending strategy to enhance efficiency [7]. Financial Performance - As of March 31, 2025, the company held $117.3 million in cash and cash equivalents, a decrease of $38 million from the previous quarter, primarily due to customer prepayments [8]. - The company reported a reversal of previous stockpile impairment at $18.4 per pound, an increase of 6.98% quarter-on-quarter [3][10]. - Sustaining capital expenditure for the quarter was $7.2 million, mainly related to the construction of a new tailings storage facility [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the stock price will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 15% or more within the specified period [18]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, Lynas reported a significant decrease in Rare Earth Oxide (REO) production, down 46% year-on-year to 1,911 tons, while sales volume increased by 5% year-on-year to 2,434 tons [1][8]. - The average selling price of REO reached A$50.5 per kilogram, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase [1]. - The company is focused on achieving its annual production target of 10,500 tons of REO by continuing to advance various projects, including furnace maintenance and process improvements at its facilities [1]. Summary by Sections 1) Production and Sales Performance - REO production in Q1 2025 was 1,911 tons, a decrease of 27% quarter-on-quarter and 46% year-on-year [1]. - REO sales volume was 2,434 tons, a decrease of 15% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 5% year-on-year [1]. - NdPr production was 1,509 tons, showing a 17% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 12% decrease year-on-year [4]. 2) Financial Performance - The company achieved sales revenue of A$123 million in Q1 2025, a decrease of 13% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 22% year-on-year [8]. - Closing cash and short-term deposits were A$26.89 million, down from A$30.83 million in the previous quarter [8]. 3) Project Developments - The maintenance of the furnace at the Malaysia Lynas plant has reduced availability, but improvements in the Kalgoorlie plant's processes are expected to enhance the quality of Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate (MREC) [3]. - The company has completed modifications necessary for the separation of dysprosium and terbium, with production lines expected to commence in May and June [7]. - The Mt Weld expansion is progressing on schedule, with the second phase expected to be operational by Q3 2025 [10]. 4) Market Conditions - The average market price for NdPr in China was reported at US$53.0 per kilogram, reflecting a 4% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 13% increase year-on-year [4]. - The report highlights that Lynas remains the only producer of dysprosium and terbium outside of China, which positions the company favorably in the global market [9].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The overall lithium concentrate production for Q1 2025 decreased by 2% quarter-on-quarter to 133,000 tons, while shipments fell by 11% to 127,000 tons [1]. - The average realized price for lithium concentrate was $844 per ton, reflecting a 2% increase from the previous quarter [1]. - Mt Marion's lithium concentrate production for Q1 2025 was 140,000 tons, a 21% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 23% decrease year-on-year, with production expectations for FY2025 adjusted to 185,000-200,000 tons [2][3]. - Wodgina's lithium concentrate production for Q1 2025 was 126,000 tons, showing a 17% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 29% year-on-year increase, attributed to improved recovery rates and fresh ore supply [4]. Summary by Sections Lithium Mining - Mt Marion's Q1 2025 shipment volume was 138,000 tons, a 25% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 9% decrease year-on-year, with an average grade of 4.4% [2]. - The average sales price for Mt Marion lithium concentrate was $845 per ton, a 4% increase from the previous quarter [3]. - Wodgina's Q1 2025 shipment volume was 118,000 tons, a 3% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 13% decrease year-on-year, with an average grade of 5.3% [7][8]. Iron Ore - Onslow Iron's Q1 2025 production was 3.43 million tons, a 23% decrease quarter-on-quarter, with an average realized price of $89 per ton [9][14]. - The production guidance for Onslow Iron has been slightly adjusted down to 8.5-8.7 million tons for FY2025 [9]. - The offshore cost for Onslow Iron was $58 per wet ton, with a guidance range of $60-70 per wet ton maintained [9][15]. Mining Services - The total mining volume for Q1 2025 was 62 million tons, a decrease of 6 million tons quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to reduced output from Yilgarn Hub and Bald Hill [17]. - The expected mining volume for FY2025 is at the lower end of the guidance range (280-300 million tons), with growth anticipated in Q2 2025 [17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 18.93 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 16.93%, attributed to multiple factors including market demand shrinkage and intensified competition [2] - The company has initiated reforms to strengthen its internal capabilities, with early signs of effectiveness observed [3] - The company is focusing on a "whole home" strategy, which is expected to align with consumer trends towards personalized design and integrated services [5] - The company has seen a significant increase in gross margin to 34.29% in Q1 2025, reflecting successful cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures [6][7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.48 yuan per share, totaling 1.50 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 57.7% [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 18.93 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.60 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.4% [10] - The company’s revenue for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 was 5.05 billion yuan and 3.45 billion yuan, respectively, with a net profit of 0.57 billion yuan and 0.31 billion yuan [2] - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 20.42 billion yuan, 21.69 billion yuan, and 23.62 billion yuan, respectively [8] Revenue Breakdown - The company’s main product categories, including kitchen cabinets and wardrobes, saw revenue declines of 22.48% and 18.06% in 2024 [3] - The company’s distribution channels experienced a revenue drop of 20.10% in 2024, with a slight recovery in Q1 2025 [4] - Direct sales channels showed growth, with revenues of 0.83 billion yuan in 2024 and 0.16 billion yuan in Q1 2025, indicating successful strategic transformation [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing a "whole home" strategy, which has led to a 50% increase in non-real estate project business volume [4] - The company has expanded its overseas sales network to 146 countries, achieving a revenue increase of 34.42% in 2024 [4] - The company has reduced its number of stores by 973 to 7,813, optimizing its retail presence [4] Profitability - The company’s net profit margin improved to 8.97% in Q1 2025, driven by effective cost control measures [7] - The company’s gross margin for 2025 is projected to remain stable at around 35.9% [10]