Group 1 - The report highlights that the brokerage industry is entering an upward trajectory after hitting a low in Q4 2023, with significant growth observed in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [5][18]. - The brokerage sector has seen a shift from "customer acquisition" to "existing customer management and institutional deepening," focusing on creating a comprehensive product matrix across various investment types [5][29]. - The report identifies three categories of brokers that have outperformed: those with low valuations and improving fundamentals, those involved in mergers and acquisitions, and those driven by innovative business models [5][12]. Group 2 - The report indicates that the performance of H-shares has outpaced A-shares due to a stronger Hong Kong market, lower valuations, and accelerated interconnectivity between capital markets [11][12]. - As of November 14, 2025, the brokerage index has increased by 4.29%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 19.06%, indicating a significant underperformance of the brokerage sector compared to the broader market [11][12]. - The report notes that the brokerage sector's price-to-book ratio is currently at 1.41 times, which is at the 47th percentile since 2018, suggesting that the sector is undervalued [5]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of wealth management as a core support for brokerage businesses, driven by increased asset allocation from residents into the equity market [5][34]. - The brokerage industry is expected to benefit directly from the increasing attractiveness of the equity market, with specific recommendations for companies like GF Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Galaxy Securities [5]. - The report outlines that the brokerage sector's net profit for the first nine months of 2025 has increased by 66% year-on-year, with significant contributions from brokerage and interest income [18][34]. Group 4 - The report discusses the internationalization of brokerage services, driven by client demand, with major firms establishing overseas subsidiaries and focusing on cross-border services [5][18]. - The brokerage sector is experiencing a "counter-cyclical" asset allocation strategy, with a continued increase in equity asset allocation expected in 2025 [5][18]. - The report highlights that the brokerage industry is positioned for a recovery in public fund profitability, with the potential for increased allocations from public funds to the non-bank financial sector [5][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the stabilization of the residential balance sheet suggests a potential bottoming out in the real estate market, but the speed of improvement will determine the duration of this bottoming process [3][4] - The report highlights that since 2021, China's housing prices have cumulatively declined by 37%, which is longer than the average decline of 34% over 6.1 years in 42 countries, indicating that while the price drop is significant, the adjustment period in China is still relatively short [22][7] - The report identifies five major opportunities in the industry, including the stabilization of the residential asset-liability ratio, a decrease in the housing price-to-income ratio, improving rental yields, a bullish stock market potentially boosting wealth effects, and a deep clearing of supply-side issues [3][4] Group 2 - The industry outlook predicts a structural bottoming out, with opportunities arising for quality housing and commercial real estate, driven by policies focusing on demand recovery and high-quality development [3][4] - The report anticipates that the core cities will stabilize sooner due to healthier supply-demand relationships, with a forecast for sales volume and price declines to narrow in 2025-2026 [3][4] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate sector, recommending specific companies in the quality housing and commercial real estate segments, as well as undervalued firms and property management companies [3][4]

Group 1: Market Performance - The average absolute return of the 76 competitive projects that were unlocked in 2025 reached 31.61%, surpassing the industry average by approximately 15.90 percentage points[6] - 85.53% of the projects had a positive absolute return, indicating a significant profit effect[6] - The average price discount rate for competitive projects in 2025 was 13.99%, slightly higher than the previous year[10] Group 2: Subscription Market Dynamics - The average subscription premium rate increased to 10.17%, up by 2.17 percentage points from 2024, indicating heightened competition for quality projects[30] - The proportion of projects issued at the base price dropped to 11.90%, marking a new low since the new regulations were implemented[28] - Institutional investors showed differentiated strategies, with state-owned and public funds focusing on large-cap companies, while private equity targeted small to mid-cap firms[32] Group 3: Project Characteristics - As of October 2025, 63% of the competitive projects had a total market value of less than 10 billion yuan, with 34% in the range of 5 to 10 billion yuan[73] - The technology and high-end manufacturing sectors accounted for 42% of the competitive projects, highlighting a strategic focus on these areas[73] - 66% of the competitive projects outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with an average outperformance of 57.53 percentage points[88] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The number of projects approved and registered in 2025 doubled compared to 2024, indicating a faster review process[67] - The expected discount space for popular projects may further compress, with the competitive benchmark discount rate likely to remain around 10%[6] - Risks include potential delays in issuance and review processes, changes in market conditions, and fluctuations in secondary market stock prices[6]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report anticipates a non-typical economic recovery in 2026, driven by confidence rebuilding and policy support, with a potential for profit improvement in the latter half of the year [9][10] - Key factors contributing to export resilience include fiscal expansion in developed economies, easing of US-China tariff conflicts, and improvements in China's industrial competitiveness [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of reform in driving economic benefits, suggesting that 2026 will mark a significant acceleration in reform efforts [9][10] Group 2: A-Share Market Strategy - The report outlines a two-phase bull market strategy, with 2025 characterized as "Bull Market 1.0" focused on technology, and 2026 potentially entering "Bull Market 2.0" with broader market participation [10][11] - It predicts that 2026 will see a rebound in profitability across the A-share market, with expected growth rates of 7% in 2025 and 14% in 2026 for net profits [10][11] - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" is expected to be marked by a shift towards cyclical stocks and a resurgence in technology-driven sectors [10][11] Group 3: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market outlook for 2026 suggests a low-interest environment with ongoing asset allocation adjustments, although the attractiveness of bond assets may be limited [11][12] - The report highlights the importance of timing in duration strategies, with a focus on credit certainty as a key investment theme [12][13] - Potential risks include a shift towards a more bearish market due to inflationary pressures and fiscal policy changes [12][13] Group 4: Shipping and Shipbuilding Sector - The report indicates a positive outlook for the shipbuilding sector, driven by rising second-hand ship prices surpassing new build prices, signaling a potential supercycle [20][21] - Historical trends show that improvements in shipping market conditions typically lead to delayed increases in shipbuilding stock prices, suggesting a similar pattern may occur [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring oil tanker rental rates and their impact on shipbuilding market dynamics [20][21] Group 5: Environmental Sector - The environmental sector is expected to benefit from stable municipal environmental profits, improved cash flows, and adjustments in water pricing, highlighting opportunities in environmental assets [19][21] - The report suggests that the dual carbon goals and AI integration will drive growth in the environmental sector, with specific recommendations for companies involved in waste management and renewable energy [19][21] - The focus on municipal environmental projects is expected to enhance the attractiveness of certain stocks within the sector [19][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased significantly this period, but are expected to decline next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds shortened this period. The issuance progress of new bonds is still slow, with the cumulative issuance progress lower than that of the same period in 2023 and 2024. The scale of local government bonds planned to be issued from November to December 2025 is 713.3 billion yuan, including 347.5 billion yuan of new special bonds. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed for the 10 - year term and widened for the 30 - year term this period, and the weekly turnover rate decreased. The spread between 15 - 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds still has certain value for investment. [3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds increased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - This period (2025.11.10 - 2025.11.16), the total issuance/net financing of local government bonds was 285.066 billion yuan/242.792 billion yuan (last period was 91.607 billion yuan/-33.641 billion yuan), and next period (2025.11.17 - 2025.11.23), the expected issuance/net financing is 184.659 billion yuan/126.343 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 13.90 years, shorter than 14.57 years in the previous period. [3] - As of November 14, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 87.8% and 93.7% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 90.3% and 95.6%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 88.9%/97.2% and 90.9%/98.0%, and in 2023 it was 91.6%/94.4% and 94.3%/95.9%. [3] - As of November 14, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed that the scale of local government bonds planned to be issued from November to December 2025 is 713.3 billion yuan (701.6 billion yuan in November and 11.7 billion yuan in December), including 347.5 billion yuan of new special bonds (343.9 billion yuan in November and 3.6 billion yuan in December). The issuance in the same period last year in the same regions was 1897.6 billion yuan and 71.8 billion yuan, and the national issuance in the same period last year was 2405.4 billion yuan and 106.8 billion yuan. [3] - This period, the issuance of special new special bonds was 4 billion yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts was 5.1 billion yuan and 0.28 billion yuan respectively. As of November 14, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1291.8 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1996.2 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 99.8%, and 32 regions such as Zhejiang have completed the issuance; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts has been 101.6 billion yuan. [3] 3.2 This period, the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed for the 10 - year term and widened for the 30 - year term, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of November 14, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 15.60BP and 22.19BP respectively, narrowing by 4.98BP and widening by 2.00BP compared with November 7, 2025, and were at the 25.80% and 87.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.71%, a decrease compared with 0.87% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Jilin, and Qingdao were better than the national average. [3] - Currently, the spread between 15 - 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds still has certain value for investment. Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP. [3]

Main Points - The report highlights three main investment themes: market recovery and supply-demand balance favoring leading companies, the role of AI in enhancing efficiency and generating secondary revenue, and the complexity of tourism investment driven by resource endowment and product refinement [5][6][17]. Group 1: Market Recovery and Supply-Demand Balance - The hotel market is expected to see a slight recovery, with average daily rates (ADR) showing positive trends [18][25]. - Luxury, mid-range, and economy hotels are experiencing a rebound after supply adjustments, with an increase in chain hotel ratios and mid-range hotel market share [7][26]. - The construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port is anticipated to significantly reduce import costs for businesses, enhancing the attractiveness of the region for tourism and hospitality investments [7]. Group 2: AI Applications in Recruitment - AI applications in recruitment are not solely focused on cost reduction but are increasingly aimed at generating additional revenue through enhanced efficiency [5][45]. - AI technologies are transforming recruitment processes, including job description generation, resume screening, and video interview analysis, leading to improved matching and efficiency [46][50]. - The recruitment service market is expanding rapidly, with high growth potential in the mid-to-high-end online recruitment sector [50]. Group 3: Tourism Investment Dynamics - The tourism investment landscape is complex, requiring a combination of resource endowment and product refinement to navigate economic cycles successfully [6][17]. - The luxury cruise market is gaining traction among older demographics, with high-quality experiences driving demand despite higher pricing [8]. - Policy changes promoting school holidays and flexible work arrangements are expected to boost service consumption, particularly in the tourism sector [8][11]. Group 4: Consumer Trends and Market Potential - The service consumption market is showing structural vitality, with service retail sales growing by 5.3% year-on-year, outpacing goods consumption [11]. - The "new silver-haired" demographic is emerging as a significant consumer group, with a growing focus on travel and leisure spending [68]. - The domestic tourism market is recovering steadily, with a projected 56.2 billion domestic trips in 2024, reflecting a 14.8% year-on-year increase [62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly emphasizing the importance of smart vehicles as a key investment theme for 2026 [2]. Core Insights - The Guangzhou Auto Show highlights the democratization of intelligent driving and the deep integration of smart cockpits with large models, indicating that intelligence is no longer an added value but a necessity for market entry [2]. - The report suggests focusing on technology-leading companies such as Tesla and XPeng, as well as companies with strong performance and low valuations like Kobot, Xingyu, and Jifeng [2]. - The report also notes the impact of state-owned enterprise reforms, recommending continued attention to SAIC and Dongfeng [2]. Industry Update - According to the China Passenger Car Association, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of November were 46,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 19% [2]. - The traditional and new energy raw material price indices have increased recently, with traditional car raw material prices rising by 0.7% week-on-week and 1.8% month-on-month [2]. - The total transaction value of the automotive industry this week was 517.096 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 13.15% [2]. Market Situation - The automotive industry index closed at 7684.80 points, down 2.11% for the week, which is a greater decline than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [2]. - A total of 112 stocks in the industry rose, while 156 fell, with the largest gainers being Langbo Technology, Yingli Automobile, and Xinpeng Co., which rose by 19.6%, 17.6%, and 14.4% respectively [2]. - Key events include the upcoming Guangzhou Auto Show, which will showcase the acceleration of electrification, intelligence, and product diversification in the automotive market [3]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, XPeng, and Li Auto, as well as companies that exemplify the trend of intelligence, such as Jianghuai Automobile and Seres [2]. - It also highlights the importance of state-owned enterprise integration, suggesting attention to SAIC Group, Dongfeng Group, and Changan Automobile [2]. - Companies with strong performance growth and capabilities in robotics or overseas expansion, such as Xingyu, Fuyao Glass, and New Spring, are also recommended [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, highlighting a "Buy" recommendation for key players in the white goods segment due to their low valuation, high dividends, and stable growth potential [4]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with the sector index rising by 1.1% while the broader index fell by 1.1%. Key companies like Joyoung (26.6%), Lek Electric (12.2%), and Hisense (7.1%) led the gains, while companies like Sanhua Intelligent Control (-12.3%) and Roborock (-1.5%) faced declines [5][7]. - Stone Technology achieved significant sales growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival, becoming the top brand in the cleaning appliance category with a market share of 34.75% in the sweeping robot segment and a 25.02% share in the washing machine segment, with net sales increasing by 408.52% year-on-year [11]. - Joyoung's new plant-based beverage, "Haqimi Green Bean Soy Milk," has gained popularity in the market, indicating strong consumer interest and potential for growth [12]. Sales Data Summary - **Air Conditioners**: In October 2025, online retail sales volume was 1.99 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.2%, while offline sales were 378,000 units, down 42.3%. The average online retail price decreased by 1.9% to 3,073 yuan per unit, and the offline average price fell by 12.2% to 4,330 yuan per unit [30]. - **Kitchen Appliances**: - **Range Hoods**: Online sales volume was 1.166 million units, down 8.6% year-on-year, while offline sales were 128,000 units, down 34.3%. The online average price increased by 8.5% to 2,005 yuan per unit, while the offline average price decreased by 5.5% to 4,422 yuan per unit [35]. - **Dishwashers**: Online sales volume was 187,000 units, down 29.1%, and offline sales were 34,000 units, down 26%. The online average price rose by 3.6% to 4,790 yuan per unit, while the offline average price fell by 1.6% to 8,195 yuan per unit [39]. Industry Dynamics - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. **White Goods**: The reversal of real estate policies is expected to boost the white goods sector, which is characterized by low valuations and high dividends. The "trade-in" policy may catalyze growth, and rising copper prices are generating positive sentiment in the channel [4]. 2. **Exports**: Companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co. are recommended due to their stable income growth driven by large customer orders and recovery in overseas demand [4]. 3. **Core Components**: The report highlights the increased demand for core components driven by the white goods sector's unexpected growth, recommending companies like Huaxiang Co. and Shun'an Environment for their competitive advantages and growth potential [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, highlighting strong performance in the sector [2]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector outperformed the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index rising by 3.7% from November 7 to November 14, 2025, surpassing the market average [3][4]. - The Double 11 shopping festival saw significant sales for domestic brands, with Proya leading sales on Tmall for three consecutive years, indicating a sustained rise of domestic brands [9][30]. - Proya has re-entered the men's skincare market, launching a new product line aimed at addressing various skincare needs, which is seen as a strategic move to enhance revenue and compete with international brands [30]. - Marubi Biotech announced plans for an H-share listing in Hong Kong to strengthen its capital base and international strategy, following similar moves by other domestic beauty brands [31]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Beauty Care Index increased by 3.7%, with the cosmetics index up by 2.5% and personal care index up by 3.7%, indicating strong sector performance [3][4]. - The Double 11 sales event resulted in high single-digit growth in online GMV for beauty products, second only to home appliances and clothing [9]. Key Company Developments - Proya's Q3 2025 revenue reached 7.098 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.89%, with a net profit of 1.026 billion yuan, reflecting a stable performance despite a slight decline in Q3 [10][11]. - Marubi Biotech's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 2.45 billion yuan, a 25.51% increase year-on-year, indicating strong growth potential [31]. Market Trends - The cosmetics retail sector saw a 9.6% year-on-year growth in October 2025, driven by the Double 11 shopping festival, which boosted consumer demand [25][27]. - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with Proya and other local brands performing well against international competitors [34]. E-commerce Insights - Data from October 2025 shows that Proya achieved a GMV of 21.5 billion yuan across Tmall and Douyin, despite a 9% decline year-on-year, indicating resilience in a competitive market [24]. - The report highlights the importance of e-commerce channels for domestic brands, which are leveraging their advantages in pricing and local market insights to capture market share [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company plans to issue up to 800 million shares to return to A-share market, which is expected to enhance long-term value [6]. - The issuance is anticipated to have limited dilution on profits, as the company’s operational business is steadily growing, and financial costs are being optimized [6]. - The company has turned positive in free cash flow since 2024, with expectations for continued improvement [6]. - The dividend policy remains stable, with a proposed mid-term dividend of 0.15 HKD per share for 2025, reflecting a dividend payout ratio of 42% [6]. - The A-share issuance is expected to optimize the company's capital structure and improve its valuation in the long term [6]. - The report forecasts net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for 2025-2027 at 3.589 billion, 3.810 billion, and 4.055 billion HKD, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 8, and 7 [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 32,090 million, 30,258 million, 29,976 million, 30,938 million, and 31,954 million HKD, with a decline in growth rates from -14.02% in 2023 to 3.28% in 2027 [3][7]. - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is projected to decrease from 4,429 million HKD in 2023 to 3,377 million HKD in 2024, before recovering to 4,055 million HKD by 2027 [3][7]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to gradually improve from 9.20% in 2023 to 7.35% in 2027 [3][7].