公司报告 | 公司专题研究 百济神州（688235） 证券研究报告 CDK4 抑制剂展现出优异早期疗效信号，后续将进入 注册临床研究阶段 CDK4 抑制剂 BGB-43395 具有更优抑制效力。目前 CDK4i 领域 FIC 的药物是 进入 III 期临床的辉瑞的 PF-07220060，在 MCF-7 增殖实验中，BGB-43395 的抑制细胞增殖效力IC₅₀为126 nM，比PF-07220060 更强（后者为544 nM）， 活性提升 4.3 倍，展现出卓越疗效。 后续随访时间延长，整体响应率有望大幅提升 从辉瑞披露的数据可以看到，CDK4 抑制剂 Atirmociclib 的中位起效时间是 3.6M。所以对同靶点药物，百济神州的 CDK4i 来说，3 个月的中位随访时 间还未到中位起效时间。过往数据提示 CDK4/6i 的应答率随时间延长逐 步提升，在 9 个月时达到最高应答概率。BGB-43395 在 3 个月的评估时间 看到 240mg、400mg、600mg BID 联用组 SD+PR 为 67%(8/12)，83%（5/6）， 75%（6/8），趋势较好。 盈利预测与投资评级 我们预计 202 ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 "反内卷"与"大而美" 证券研究报告 政策与大类资产配置周观察 海内外政策要闻 习近平主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央 军委主席、中央财经委员会主任习近平7月1日上午主持召开中央财经委员会第六 次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。统一 大市场方面，会议指出，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，基本要求是"五统一、 一开放"；海洋经济方面，会议强调推动海洋经济高质量发展。 李强总理出席金砖国家领导人第十七次会晤第一阶段会议。当地时间7月6日，国 务院总理李强在里约热内卢出席金砖国家领导人第十七次会晤第一阶段会议，就 "和平与安全、全球治理改革"议题发表讲话。金砖成员国领导人与会,巴西总统 卢拉主持会议。 美国国会微弱优势通过"大而美"法案。美国国会众议院7月3日下午以218票赞 成、214票反对的表决结果通过总统特朗普推动的"大而美"税收与支出法案。 该法案主要内容包括延长特朗普在其第一个任期内于2017年通过的企业和个人 减税措施，让小费和加班工资收入免于纳税等，其核心条款是降低企业税。 国内外政策导向分析 上周（6.30-7.4） ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for stocks, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [29]. Core Insights - Southbound capital continues to flow into Hong Kong stocks, with a net purchase of 12.68 billion yuan over the past week, totaling 692.1 billion yuan year-to-date, which is 93.02% of the total net purchase for 2024 [1]. - The report highlights the low valuation of internet companies, with projected P/E ratios for 2025 for major players like Alibaba at 11, Tencent at 16, and Meituan at 14 [1][3]. - In the AI sector, Kuaishou has launched a multimodal language model, achieving a score of 140 in the national math exam, while Ant Group has introduced an AI health application connecting over 5,000 hospitals [1]. - In the smart driving sector, Tesla has initiated public trial operations, while domestic companies like Li Auto and Xpeng are reaching critical milestones in high-level autonomous driving [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential of the IP economy in Hong Kong, with new consumer companies preparing for IPOs, suggesting structural opportunities during the summer consumption peak and earnings report windows [2]. Summary by Sections Southbound Capital - Southbound capital has shown a consistent inflow, with significant net purchases in key stocks such as China Construction Bank and SMIC [1][24]. AI Developments - Kuaishou's new AI model and Ant Group's health application are expected to enhance commercial applications in AI [1]. Smart Driving - The report notes the advancements in smart driving technologies and the expected market impact from new vehicle releases [2]. IP Economy - The report suggests focusing on high-growth IP-related companies as they prepare for IPOs and capitalize on seasonal demand [2].

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 房地产 证券研究报告 荆门"现房销售"新政怎么看？ 行业追踪（2025.6.28-2025.7.4） "有条件的可以进行现房销售"，随后广东、山东、四川、安徽、河南等地积极反应，并开始 推行现房试点。从此次正式推进现房销售的荆门市为湖北省唯一的现房销售试点城市。从库存 情况看，截至 2025 年 5 月，荆门可售库存面积 130.7 万方，去化周期 19.8 个月，两指标自 2020 年后逐步下滑，当前较 2021 年末分别降低 63 万方、24 个月，城市"去库存"已有一 定成效。 我们认为，全国性现房销售占比提升、增速表现更好，除因购房者对"所见即所得"的现房产 品倾向性提升外，也与去化周期及投资增速放缓带来的现房库存累积有关，即在广义"去库" 周期内，总库存下滑、现房销售占比提升趋势较为显著。尤其在低能级城市，现房库存占比普 遍更高，供给结构与政策具备契合度，但同时需考虑低能级基本面劣势下的去化周期较长、价 格下行压力大等问题，过快全面铺开现房销售或进一步遏制开发商投资热情，故库存及去化周 期降至相对合理区间或是政策推动的重要参考条件。伴随三四线城市"现房销售"官方文件落 地 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][23]. Core Views - The company has seen a year-on-year increase in both order volume and processing volume, highlighting investment opportunities in the steel structure sector at a relatively low point [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the supply-side reforms in the steel industry, which may lead to improved profitability as steel prices rise [3]. - The company is focusing on intelligent transformation and has invested in advanced manufacturing technologies, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Orders and Production - In the first half of 2025, the company signed new orders totaling 14.38 billion, a slight increase of 0.17% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, new orders amounted to 7.328 billion, a decrease of 0.85% year-on-year. The steel structure production for the first half of 2025 reached 2.3625 million tons, up 12.19% year-on-year, with Q2 production at 1.3134 million tons, an increase of 10.56% year-on-year [1][2]. Pricing and Market Trends - The company has seen an increase in the number of large contracts (over 10,000 tons) from 6 in Q2 2021 to 18 in Q2 2025. The average price per ton for new orders in Q2 2025 ranged from 4,535 to 8,494 yuan, indicating a 5.11% increase in average price compared to Q2 2024 [2]. - Steel prices have stabilized between 3,160 and 3,370 yuan per ton, with an average of 3,233 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.2% [2]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 868.65 million, 1,015.91 million, and 1,222.03 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.14, 12.09, and 10.05 [5][4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 21,514.36 million in 2024 to 33,629.99 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.66% [5]. Intelligent Transformation - The company has established a dedicated research team for intelligent manufacturing and has invested in various advanced production technologies, including automated cutting and welding equipment, which are expected to enhance production efficiency [4].

Group 1 - The overall industry sentiment shows an upward trend in coal, machinery, electronics, food and beverage, textile and apparel, non-bank financials, public utilities, and retail sectors, while downward trends are observed in power equipment, pharmaceuticals, light manufacturing, home appliances, automotive, banking, real estate, and environmental protection sectors [2][28] - Key industries to focus on for the next four weeks include automotive parts, automation equipment, specialized equipment, components, semiconductors, optical optoelectronics, commercial vehicles, engineering machinery, general equipment, automotive services, electronic chemicals II, papermaking, television broadcasting II, gaming II, and motors II, with new additions being automotive parts, semiconductors, optical optoelectronics, and engineering machinery [2][28] - Notable industry data as of July 6, 2025, includes a significant increase in daily sales of passenger cars by 18.44%, while the operating rate of semi-steel tires decreased by 7.64 percentage points; liquid oxygen ex-factory prices rose by 4.65%; DRAM prices increased by 2.19%; white cardboard prices fell by 2.38%; and prices of ternary materials 5 series rose by 0.89% while lithium hexafluorophosphate prices decreased by 2.32% [29] Group 2 - The convertible bond market experienced a decline this week, with the China Securities convertible bond index rising by 1.21%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bond index by 1.28%, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange convertible bond index by 1.08% [4] - The weighted average conversion value of the convertible bonds increased to 94.08 yuan, up by 2.58 yuan from the previous week, while the overall market weighted average conversion premium rate decreased by 2.77 percentage points to 45.56% [4] - The report suggests focusing on convertible bond downshift opportunities, particularly in the context of recent downshifts in convertible bonds like Caitong and Jing'ao, which have seen around 4% increases in their prices [4] Group 3 - The banking sector remains stable and presents investment value, with bank stock valuations reaching recent highs and dividend yields significantly lower than in previous years, yet still offering substantial excess returns compared to 10-year government bond yields [9] - The report highlights the ongoing reform of rural banks, with over 50 rural banks being merged or restructured this year, which may lead to a slight increase in overall non-performing loan ratios for state-owned banks [5][9] - Recommendations for quality regional small banks include Chengdu Bank and Changshu Bank, while major state-owned banks recommended are Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and Postal Savings Bank of China [9] Group 4 - The beverage and dairy market is experiencing significant growth, with the global ready-to-drink soft drink market projected to grow from $934.5 billion in 2019 to $1,131.7 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 3.9% [21] - The coconut water industry is expanding rapidly, with the market share of IF in China reaching 33.9%, making it the leading player in the coconut water beverage market [21][23] - IFBH successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with its stock price increasing by 42.09% on the first day and 20.38% on the second day, and projected revenues for 2024 are expected to grow by 80.29% [21][23] Group 5 - The traditional business of Jingda Co. is steadily growing, with the production of enameled wire increasing from 1.311 million tons in 2012 to 1.788 million tons in 2022, and the global sales expected to reach $1.065 billion by 2030 [18][39] - The company is well-positioned in the automotive and electronics wire markets, benefiting from the increasing production and sales of automobiles and the rising level of electronicization [18][39] - The demand for AI servers is driving the growth of the silver-plated copper market, with the global AI server market projected to grow from $19.5 billion in 2022 to $34.7 billion in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 17.3% [39]

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 流动性中期展望 证券研究报告 变局中把握新常态 1、上半年，资金面的"意料之外"与"情理之中" 2025 年上半年，资金面呈现出诸多让市场颇感始料未及的现象，背后恰是 政策引导和市场行为共同作用的"情理之中"，从一季度边际趋紧到二季度 逐渐切换至平稳均衡，资金"过山车"的背后实则有着清晰的逻辑链条： 一方面，在宽松的大方向不变之下，支持性的货币政策立场更突出目标优 先级的动态切换特征，强调灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏，对于目标优 先级的识别成为预判资金状态的重要抓手之一。 另一方面，调控方式上，随着货币政策框架的演进，逐渐淡化了对数量目 标的关注，注重发挥利率调控的作用，畅通利率传导机制。 2、2025，流动性的一些新叙事 在一季度资金面"意外"波动背后，是政策目标优先级切换、灵活择机特 征更为突出的背景之下，央行在货币政策框架转型过程中，对流动性调控 的灵活性和精准度不断提升，在操作上的"有所为"与"有所不为"之间， 实现多重诉求的均衡。 第二，"稳增长"与"防风险"动态平衡。若有降准落地，三季度或是较好 的观察口期，幅度或在 25-50BP，若无降准落地，央行或将通过加码买断 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The upcoming launch of the GB300 server and Oracle's contract are expected to drive investment opportunities in computing power [12] - The listing plans of Lens Technology and Luxshare Precision in Hong Kong, along with the US-Vietnam tariff adjustments, are stimulating the recovery of the consumer electronics supply chain [12][15] - The GB300 AI server chip from NVIDIA is set to be released in the second half of the year, with revenue opportunities expected to increase by 50 times compared to the previous generation [16] - Oracle has signed multiple cloud service contracts, which are anticipated to significantly boost demand for computing power and related infrastructure [20][21] - The demand for PCB (Printed Circuit Board) is expected to rise due to the increasing needs from AI servers and ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) developments [23][31] Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Electronics Sector - Lens Technology and Luxshare Precision are planning to list in Hong Kong, enhancing their global presence and benefiting from tariff adjustments between the US and Vietnam [12][15] - The US-Vietnam trade agreement is expected to lower supply chain costs for companies like Apple, positively impacting the consumer electronics sector [15] 2. Computing Power Infrastructure - The GB300 AI server chip is anticipated to drive significant orders and technological upgrades within the industry [16][17] - Oracle's cloud service contracts are projected to contribute over $30 billion annually, indicating strong demand for AI infrastructure [20] 3. PCB Market Dynamics - The demand for PCB is expected to grow due to the increasing requirements from AI servers and ASIC technologies [23][31] - The GB200 NVL72 architecture from NVIDIA is raising the standards for PCB, leading to increased growth in the sector [26] 4. Smartphone Market Insights - Huawei continues to lead the Chinese smartphone market, with a 12% year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 2025 [35] - The release of new models from major brands is expected to drive further innovation and competition in the smartphone market [38][40]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [8] Core Insights - The semiconductor storage sector is expected to see strong price increases in Q3 and Q4, driven by sustained price hikes, AI catalysis, and accelerated domestic production [3][12][15] - DDR4 contract prices are projected to rise by 30-40% in Q3, with NAND Flash prices also expected to increase by 5-10% [4][12][19] - The demand for storage is being propelled by AI applications, leading to rapid upgrades in storage capacity across servers, PCs, and mobile devices [3][12][30] - Domestic manufacturers are making significant strides in localization, enhancing their competitive edge through self-developed control chips and advanced packaging technologies [3][12][42] Summary by Sections Storage Price Outlook - The storage sector is anticipated to continue its upward price trend in Q3 and Q4, with significant increases in DDR4 and NAND Flash prices [3][12][15] - The ASP for Mobile NAND is expected to remain stable with low single-digit growth, while LPDDR4X is projected to surge over 20% [4][17][19] Recommended Stocks - Jiangbolong is highlighted as a key stock with a dual logic of "cycle + growth," benefiting from price increases and domestic market expansion [5][14][44] - The company is expected to see a 200% year-on-year revenue growth in enterprise storage by Q1 2025, driven by domestic substitution [5][14][45] Market Dynamics - The semiconductor industry is projected to maintain optimistic growth trends through 2025, with AI driving downstream demand [6][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain restructuring and domestic substitution as key factors influencing market dynamics [6][30][42] Company Developments - Jiangbolong has launched multiple high-speed eSSD products and is actively collaborating with Sandisk to develop high-quality UFS solutions [42][44] - The company has achieved a remarkable 666% year-on-year growth in enterprise storage revenue, indicating strong market demand and operational efficiency [44][45]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Neutral (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The approval of D-Alulose as a new food ingredient is a significant development, indicating potential growth in the food additive sector [1] - TDI and DMF prices have shown upward trends, with TDI prices increasing by 6.7% and DMF by 5.1% in the recent week, reflecting supply-demand dynamics in the chemical market [2][3] - The basic chemical sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a weekly increase of 0.46% compared to a 1.54% rise in the CSI 300 index, ranking 21st among all sectors [4][16] Summary by Sections Key News Tracking - On July 2, the National Health Commission announced the approval of D-Alulose and other substances as new food materials, which may enhance market opportunities in the food sector [1][13] Product Price Tracking - WTI oil prices rose by 1.5% to $66.5 per barrel, while key chemical products like TDI and DMF saw price increases of 6.7% and 5.1%, respectively [2] - The top five chemical products with price increases included carbon dioxide (+25.6%) and TDI (+6.7%) [2][30] Sector Performance - The basic chemical sector's performance was weaker than the CSI 300 index, with a 0.46% increase compared to the index's 1.54% rise, indicating a need for strategic focus on sectors with better growth potential [4][16] Focused Sub-industry Insights - The report suggests focusing on industries with stable demand and supply dynamics, such as refrigerants and phosphates, while also highlighting opportunities in MDI and agricultural chemicals [5] - Companies recommended for investment include Juhua Co., Yuntianhua, and Wanhua Chemical, reflecting a strategic approach to capitalize on market trends [5]