- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to quantitative finance or ESG analysis[1][2][3][4]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 如何提高居民消费率？ 根据消费经济的一般演进路径，随着居民收入不断提高，消费重心会逐渐从日 常消耗品转向耐用商品，并进一步向服务领域扩展。当前，我国人均 GDP 已 跃升至 1.3 万美元以上，居民消费格局呈现出从商品主导向服务主导转变的趋 势。与一般发达国家相比，我国服务消费占比明显偏低，"十五五"时期提升 居民消费率的战略选择就是大力发展服务消费。 ❑ 消费的宏观特征：消费率低，但消费量并不低；政府消费占比较高，居民 消费率偏低；实物消费占比高，而服务型消费占比低。 1）中国整体消费率（最终消费支出/GDP）明显低于一般发达国家，但最 终消费量并不低，剔除价格、汇率等因素，按照购买力平价后的绝对消费 量接近美国，且大于整个欧盟总和；由于中国属于制造业大国，国内商 品、服务价格普遍低于国际平均水平。 2）最终消费结构中，中国居民消费率（居民消费支出/GDP）不仅低于全 球平均水平，而且低于同为发展中国家的印度、巴西等国；中国政府消费 额以及占 GDP 的比重均高于全球水平，亦高于一般发达国家，形成了 "官方消费比民间旺盛"的独特现象。 3）与 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 服务消费是提高居民消费率的主要抓手之一 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 47 期） 频率：每周 当前，释放服务消费潜力对提高居民消费的边际空间更大，地方政府的手段更 多。因此，我们预计未来五年服务消费是提高居民消费率的关键因素。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 53 ——央国企整合呈现多元模 式，契合"十五五"盘活主 线》2025-12-15 2、《大国协调下的地缘冲突— ——国际时政周评》2025-12-14 3、《还需一点催化剂——宏观 与大类资产周报》2025-12-14 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 数据显示，2024 年我国居民消费率仅为 39.9%，同年美国居民消费率为 67.9%，韩国居民消费率也比我国高接近 10 个百分点左右，数据为 48.5%。"十五五"规划明确指出要提高居民消费率，这对于构建强大的国 内市场具有决定性的意 ...

Group 1: Central State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) Restructuring - China Metallurgical Group is divesting non-core assets worth approximately RMB 606.76 billion to refocus on its core engineering business[8] - The merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang was terminated due to market volatility, maintaining independent operations[14] - Hubei's state-owned assets have acquired around 15 listed companies, with over 50% of these being newly added through mergers in the past five years[16] Group 2: Asset Activation Strategies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes asset activation as part of industrial upgrading strategies across various provinces[22] - Sichuan has introduced a three-year action plan to support enterprises in listing and mergers, focusing on a full lifecycle service[26] - Hubei's mergers are strategically aligned with the "51020" modern industrial cluster, targeting sectors like new energy and high-end equipment manufacturing[18] Group 3: Market Performance of Central SOEs - As of December 12, 2025, the total market capitalization of A-share listed central SOEs is RMB 35.1 trillion, accounting for 30.3% of the A-share market[32] - The National New SOE small-cap index has risen by 2.5% over the past two weeks, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.3 percentage points[32] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for central SOEs is 45.1 times, which is relatively high compared to the overall A-share market[32]

❑ 市场板块行情回顾 汽车行业周报 本周 CS 汽车+0.1%。本周（12 月 7 日至 12 月 13 日，下同）上证 A 指涨跌 幅为-0.3%，深证 A 指涨跌幅为+0.2%，创业板涨跌幅为+2.7%。本周各行业 板块多数下跌，涨幅较大的行业板块为 CS 通信（+5.9%）、CS 国防军工 （+3.6%）和 CS 电子（+2.5%），下跌的行业板块为 CS 煤炭（-3.8%）、 CS 石油石化（-3.4%）和 CS 纺织服装（-2.7%）。 汽车产业链各板块行情：本周，汽车行业二级板块多数上涨，其中摩托车及 其他板块涨幅居前，周涨幅均为+1.7%，汽车服务板块周度有所下跌，周涨幅 为-5.2%。汽车行业三级板块多数上涨，其中摩托车和商用载客车板块涨幅较 大，周涨幅分别为+2.5%和+1.4%，汽车经销商和汽车综合服务板块周度有所 下跌，周跌幅分别为-6.8%和-4.1%。 ❑ 个股行情回顾 汽车板块个股：本周，汽车板块个股上涨居多。其中，涨幅居前的个股有超 捷股份（+39.0%）、华懋科技（+28.5%）和跃岭股份（+21.9%）；跌幅居 前的个股有厦门信达（-13.6%）、嵘泰股份（-10.9%）和隆 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 新房网签面积同比降幅收窄，二手房网签面积同比降幅扩大 推荐（维持） ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 12 月 11 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 12 月 11 日） | 新房（12 | 月 | 1 日-12 月 | 11 日） | 二手房（12 | 月 | 1 日-12 月 | 11 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 11 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 11 月 | | 样本城市 | -30% | -收窄 | +5 PCT | 样本城市 | -34% | -扩大 | -19 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | （16 城） | | | | | 一线城市 | -31% | -收窄 | +10 PCT | 一线城市 | -32% | -扩大 | -7 PCT | | （4 城） ...

国内方面，政治局会议和中央经济工作会议明确来年的经济结构方向，内需重 点在释放服务消费活力、持续推升全要素生产率、随着新旧动能切换适度推进 化解地产与地方债务风险。 海外方面，美联储 12 月 FOMC 虽兑现降息，但市场预期 Q1 降息暂停、技术 性扩表期限与规模也极为有限。19日日本央行行动成为短期关键。除日本外， 交易员也开始押注欧洲央行加息，若未来 1 个月美国与非美货币政策反差加 大，亦将加剧海外资产波动。 还需一点催化剂 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 资产方面，12 月 19 日日本央行大概率落地加息，基于流动性扩张及美元贬值 推动的国内外权益行情仍需等待，预计 2026 年 1 月中下旬美股或重拾升势。 国内资产端短期或可逐步看好红利，1 月中下旬可重新布局恒科，随后转向国 内科技、港股创新药。近期离岸人民币升值与美联储降息、季节性结汇以及中 美贸易缓和等因素有关，结汇激增能否触发港股乃至 A 股转强仍需观察整体宏 观形势。去年 9 月、今年 2 月的脉冲行情过后，恒科均出现了 4 个月的休整 期，今年 9 月休整后，亦有望 ...

Geopolitical Conflicts - Ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine show a tug-of-war, with Ukraine proposing a revised peace plan and emphasizing the need for security guarantees from the U.S. amid internal political pressures[9] - The U.S. continues to exert pressure on Venezuela, with potential military actions being considered to undermine Maduro's government, reflecting domestic political motivations[13] - The U.S. and India are enhancing bilateral trade and energy cooperation, indicating a shift towards a more stable U.S.-India relationship following recent leadership communications[4] Economic Policies and Trade - The U.S. has approved exports of H200 chips to China, signaling a potential easing in tech-related tensions[4] - Ongoing U.S. tariff discussions focus on strategic security industries, with particular attention on semiconductor and critical mineral sectors[19] - The U.S. is engaged in legal proceedings regarding the legitimacy of tariffs, which could impact future trade negotiations with countries like India and Brazil[19] Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.3% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.8%, reflecting mixed market sentiments[5] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 4.1% this week, influenced by geopolitical tensions and ongoing negotiations in conflict regions[5] - The Nasdaq Composite Index saw a decline of 1.6% this week, contributing to a year-to-date increase of 20.1%[5] Risk Factors - Potential unexpected changes in U.S. policies and international relations could pose significant risks to market stability[6] - The geopolitical landscape remains volatile, with ongoing conflicts in various regions likely to impact global economic conditions[20]

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 中央经济工作会议与美联储货币政策变化对 A 股的影响 ——A 股投资策略周报（1214） 近期宏观层面迎来关键定调，国内中央经济工作会议直面"国内供强需弱"矛盾， 明确把"促进物价合理回升"作为货币政策重要考量；海外美联储如期降息 25bp 并启用 RMP 工具，旨在维持银行体系充裕准备金水平。往后看，随着下周非农及 通胀数据落地，建议重点关注"制定实施城乡居民增收计划"带来的消费潜力释放， 以及"推动投资止跌回稳"背景下的重大项目相关预期。 定期报告 《市场调整结束了吗？后续如何 应 对 — — A 股 投 资 策 略 周 报 （1018）》 相关报告 《近期政策端变化如何影响 A 股 市场？——A 股投资策略周报 （1207）》 《A 股调整的原因和恢复上涨的 信 号 — — A 股 投 资 策 略 周 报 （1123）》 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 陈星宇 S1090522070004 c ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on AI applications and commercial aerospace, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [6][24]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the need for digital transformation in manufacturing and the acceleration of satellite internet development during the 14th Five-Year Plan [6][10]. - OpenAI has released GPT-5.2, which shows significant improvements in various capabilities, positioning it as a leading model in the competitive AI landscape [6][11]. - SpaceX is accelerating its IPO process, with a target valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, driven by its core businesses in rocket launches and satellite internet services [20][21]. - Domestic and international tech giants are increasingly investing in space computing projects, highlighting the growing demand for data centers and AI infrastructure [20][22]. - The successful launch of the reusable Zhuque-3 rocket marks a significant milestone in China's commercial aerospace sector, with multiple reusable rocket plans set for launch in 2025-2026 [23][24]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 286 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 4,161.9 billion [2]. - The absolute performance of the computer sector shows a decline of 2.7% over one month, but a growth of 13.5% over six months and 8.3% over twelve months [4]. - The report highlights the increasing competition in the AI sector, particularly in the race for AI infrastructure and applications [6][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued focus on AI applications, particularly companies like Alibaba, Kingsoft, and Hehe Information, as well as AI infrastructure firms such as Damo Data and Deepin Technology [6][24]. - In the commercial aerospace sector, it suggests monitoring companies like Jida Zhengyuan, Jiayuan Technology, and Aerospace Power [6][24].