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债券市场专题研究:哑铃优先,韧性依旧
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 12:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide a specific industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the joint statement of China, the US, and Japan, the convertible bond and equity markets showed a relatively strong oscillation throughout the week. The core logic lies in the rapid reversal of market sentiment. In the next stage, the market's perception of the marginal changes in tariff games may shift from pessimism to neutrality. Considering the potential risk - release pressure in the current convertible bond market, the dumbbell allocation strategy that combines stability and growth may continue to be dominant. Specifically, attention should be paid to sectors benefiting from domestic demand stimulation and new - quality productivity [1]. - In the past week (from May 12th to May 16th), most convertible bond indices rose. The price median of the convertible bond market slightly increased to 121.97 yuan, at the 87.38% level since 2017. The market style is likely to favor fundamentals rather than growth. In the short - term, the risk of a significant decline in the equity market is limited, and the trend of continuous upward repair may continue. It is recommended that investors focus on high - grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds. Convertible bonds related to consumer electronics, home appliances, and home furnishings that benefit from consumption subsidies can also be appropriately considered. For new - quality productivity - related convertible bonds, high - priced targets can be appropriately taken profit [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1.1 Convertible Bond Market Trends - The document does not provide specific content for this part other than indicating the data source and the cut - off date [8][9]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - The document presents figures on the top five and bottom five gainers and losers of individual convertible bonds and their underlying stocks in the past week, but no specific data is given [13][21]. 1.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - The document shows figures on the valuation trends of bond - type, balanced, and equity - type convertible bonds, as well as the conversion premium rate valuation trends of convertible bonds with different parities, but no specific data is given [17][22][24]. 1.4 Convertible Bond Prices - The document shows figures on the proportion trends of high - priced and low - priced bonds, the proportion trend of individual bonds falling below the bond floor, and the price median trend of the convertible bond market, but no specific data is given [29][33].
中国动力:2025Q1业绩高增,后市场维保、AIDC打开成长空间-20250518
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 10:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 78%, and a staggering 349% growth in Q1 2025 [1] - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to the rising global shipbuilding market and strong performance in the diesel engine segment, with new orders remaining high [1][4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the upturn in the shipbuilding cycle and the increasing demand for marine engines [4][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 51.697 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.62%, and a net profit of 1.391 billion yuan, up 78.43% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 12.311 billion yuan, a 7.98% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 396 million yuan, reflecting a 348.96% growth [3] - The gross profit margin for 2024 increased by 1.53 percentage points, while Q1 2025 saw a 5.53 percentage point increase in gross profit margin [3] Business Segments - The shipbuilding industry segment generated revenue of 23.147 billion yuan in 2024, with a completion rate of 127.1% for annual plans [2] - The application industry achieved revenue of 22.060 billion yuan, with new contracts totaling 21.755 billion yuan [2] - The emerging industry segment, particularly in energy-saving and emission-reduction equipment, saw a 60.92% increase in new orders for wind power operations [2] Market Outlook - The shipbuilding cycle is on an upward trend, with demand for marine engines expected to rise due to supply constraints and increasing ship prices [4][9] - The company is enhancing its after-sales service capabilities for diesel engines, with a projected revenue of nearly 1.5 billion yuan from after-sales services in 2024, marking a 25% increase [9][10] - The development of AIDC is anticipated to drive demand for gas turbines, with the company being one of the few domestic manufacturers in this sector [10] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are approximately 60 billion, 68 billion, and 75.7 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 13%, and 11% respectively [11] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is expected to be 2.135 billion, 3.007 billion, and 3.772 billion yuan, with growth rates of 54%, 41%, and 25% respectively [11] - The company is valued at a PE ratio of approximately 23, 16, and 13 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [11]
中国动力(600482):2025Q1业绩高增,后市场维保、AIDC打开成长空间
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 10:04
证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 其他电源设备Ⅱ 2025Q1 业绩高增,后市场维保&AIDC 打开成长空间 ❑ 2024 年归母净利润同比增长约 78%,2025Q1 同比增长约 349% 2024 年公司营业收入 516.97 亿元,同比增长 14.62%;归母净利润 13.91 亿元, 同比增长 78.43%;扣非归母净利润 12.33 亿元,同比增长 120.60%。2024 年公司 业绩显著增长主要系年全球造船市场景气度持续提升,柴油机板块相关子公司 产、销双高,新接订单保持高位,主要产品船用发动机销售规模扩大,收入大幅 增长。新接订单来看,2024 年公司新签合同 543.52 亿元,同比下降 11.06%。完 工来看,2024 年公司完成工业总产值 513.61 亿元,同比增长 13.88%。手持订单 来看,公司手持合同 585.55 亿元,较 2023 年底下降 3.31 亿元。 按业务拆分来看,1)船海产业:2024 年船海产业营收 231.47 亿元,年度计划完 成率 127.1%,新签合同 250.3 亿元,年度计划完成率约 141.56%。①船用低速 机:2024 年公司生产船用低速机台 ...
社服行业2024年年报&2025Q1业绩综述:分化加剧,寻求需求侧景气度或供给侧的成本费用改善
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 07:50
证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 社会服务 2024 年价格端有所提升,分业态有所分化。2024 年 CPI 整体有所恢复,利好零 售同店端,但客流受线上化影响仍有分化。2024 年累计分零售业态增长:专业店 (yoy+4.2%)、专卖店(yoy-0.4%)、超市(yoy+2.7%)、百货(yoy-2.4%)、便利 店(+4.7%)。其中超市受益调改+供应链变革提升前端客流吸引力,百货受到空 置率等因素影响仍有下滑。 社会服务 报告日期:2025 年 05 月 17 日 分化加剧,寻求需求侧景气度或供给侧的成本费用改善 ——社服行业 2024 年年报&2025Q1 业绩综述 投资要点 2024 年旅游高增长,25Q1 景气延续。根据文旅部数据,2024 年全年旅游收入增 长 17%,旅游人次增长 15%,客单价超越 19 年。2025 年春节国内旅游收入增长 7%,旅游人次增长 6%。低线城市、县域和农村居民的需求升级推动了旅游市场 下沉增量。银发游崛起,2024 年,45 岁以上的中老年旅游者合计出游 11.94 亿人 次,占据国内旅游客源市场的 36.81%。 OTA 充分享受大盘增长,格局稳固。下游供给加 ...
食饮行业周报(2025年5月第3期):关注新渠道、品类红利和保健品的新消费机会
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 07:50
证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 关注新渠道、品类红利和保健品的新消费机会 ——食饮行业周报(2025 年 5 月第 3 期) 投资要点 食饮观点:当前食饮板块关注"食品板块品类红利"、"零食企业会员商超 等新渠道驱动"、"保健品新热点"等三方面的新消费投资机会,传统消费 优选业绩见底有望向上标的。我们维持此前强调的"在内需避风港钓鱼"观 点,并强调该阶段应该重点布局行业龙头个股;白酒板块 2025 年或为新旧 周期转换年,关注基本面业绩较好或公司改革有望见成效的龙头标的;大众 品短期关注零食公司或在山姆等会员店上架新品的投资机会,推荐劲仔食 品、盐津铺子,关注有友食品,持续推荐品类红利、零售变革大年和成本周 期带来的食饮投资机会。 白酒板块:白酒板块当前仍处低位,且一季报或为全年低点,当前位置持续 推荐,优选品牌势能较强、库存更早出清、目标增速合理的酒企。当前存在 关税等外部不确定性,以白酒为代表的内需配置价值彰显,政策及地产企稳 催化下或迎白酒结构牛市,推荐攻守兼备两条主线。重视"势能延续"、"低 基数修复"两条主线:①势能延续的确定性:高端酒推荐贵州茅台/五粮液, 次高端及区域酒推荐古井贡酒/山 ...
钢铁周报:库存继续去库,铁水拐点初现
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 07:45
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that inventory continues to decrease, with signs of a turning point in molten iron production [1] - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 9.93 million tons, showing a weekly decrease of 3.8% and a year-to-date increase of 31.0% [5] - The total inventory of steel mills for the five major products is 4.37 million tons, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.4% and a year-to-date increase of 24.8% [5] - The port inventory of iron ore stands at 141.63 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 0.5% and a year-to-date increase of 4.7% [5] Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,159, with a weekly decrease of 0.4% and a year-to-date increase of 2.7% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,200 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.6% and a year-to-date decrease of 6.2% [3] - The price of hot-rolled steel is 3,270 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.2% and a year-to-date decrease of 4.4% [3] - The iron ore Platts index is at 102 USD/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 3.7% and a year-to-date increase of 2.2% [3] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be stable, with daily molten iron production expected to maintain a steady trend [8][10] - The report highlights the overall demand for rebar, indicating a positive outlook for the market [14]
钢铁周报:库存继续去库,铁水拐点初现-20250518
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 07:16
证券研究报告 库存 2 钢铁周报:库存继续去库,铁水拐点初现 行业评级:看好 2025 年 05 月 18 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 1 价格 | | 【浙商金属 沈皓俊】 | | 钢铁周度数据 | | (2025年5月18日) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 367 | 0 8% . | 0 . | 5% | | | | | | 沪深300 | | 3 , | 889 | 1 1% . | -1 . | 2% | | | | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 | 159 | -0 4% . ...
敏华控股:点评报告:经营利润率抬升、功能沙发渗透率加速向上-20250518
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 05:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 16.903 billion for the fiscal year 24/25, a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 2.063 billion, down 10.41% year-on-year. However, excluding certain impairments, the adjusted net profit was HKD 2.35 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.3% due to effective cost control measures [1][11] Summary by Sections Domestic Sales - Revenue from the Chinese market was HKD 10.236 billion, a decline of 16.94% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 40.4%. The decline was attributed to construction pressures and weak terminal demand. Offline store revenue decreased by 16.56% to HKD 6.799 billion, while online sales fell by 16.33% to HKD 2.193 billion, although the latter showed signs of recovery in the second half of the fiscal year [2] International Sales - North American revenue increased by 3.17% to HKD 4.420 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 4.4 percentage points to 41.5%. European and other overseas markets saw a revenue increase of 22.90% to HKD 1.469 billion, driven by enhanced market promotion and expanded sales channels [3] Product Categories - Sofa and related products generated HKD 11.743 billion in revenue, down 7.24% year-on-year, with total sales volume of 1.885 million sets. Domestic sofa revenue decreased by 15.4%, while export sales volume increased by 13.04%, particularly in North America and Europe [4] Financial Metrics - The gross margin improved to 40.5%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs. The company effectively reduced its expense ratio to 23.51%, with a notable decrease in management expenses [5][10] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 17.886 billion, HKD 19.168 billion, and HKD 20.570 billion over the next three fiscal years, with corresponding net profits of HKD 2.273 billion, HKD 2.492 billion, and HKD 2.720 billion. The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 7.24X, 6.60X, and 6.05X for the next three years [11][12]
东软集团:2024年报、2025一季报点评:变革效果初步显现,智能化转型开启新周期-20250518
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 05:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][10] Core Insights - The company has achieved revenue growth of 9.64% year-on-year, reaching 11.56 billion yuan, and has set a record high in operating cash flow at 855 million yuan [2] - The company is accelerating its global expansion in the smart automotive sector, with a significant increase in orders and shipments, achieving over 30% growth in overall shipments [2] - The company is focusing on "AI + industry" strategies, with notable breakthroughs in "AI + healthcare" and "AI + automotive" sectors, signing new contracts worth 678 million yuan in vertical AI applications [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 435 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.01%, meeting strategic goals [2] - The company’s revenue for the smart automotive interconnection business was 4.70% higher year-on-year, totaling 4.10 billion yuan [8] - The healthcare and social security business revenue decreased by 12.08% to 2.26 billion yuan, but future growth is anticipated [8] Business Segments - The smart city business saw a revenue increase of 49.95%, reaching 2.43 billion yuan, driven by the integration of AI and big data technologies [8] - The enterprise interconnection and other businesses generated 2.77 billion yuan in revenue, up 13.64%, benefiting from the integration of AI models and global service capabilities [8] Future Outlook - The company projects revenues of 12.85 billion yuan, 14.54 billion yuan, and 16.57 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to rise significantly [10] - The company aims to deepen the integration of AI with industry scenarios and expand application areas, transitioning from a "technology provider" to a "value creator" [9]
敏华控股(01999):点评报告:经营利润率抬升、功能沙发渗透率加速向上
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 05:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 16.903 billion for the fiscal year 24/25, a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 2.063 billion, down 10.41% year-on-year. Excluding fair value losses and impairment provisions, the adjusted net profit was HKD 2.35 billion, reflecting a 1.3% increase due to cost control measures [1] - The domestic market faced challenges with a revenue decline of 16.94% year-on-year, attributed to construction pressures and weak terminal demand. However, online sales showed resilience with a revenue of HKD 2.193 billion, down 16.33% year-on-year, but with a narrowing decline in the second half [2] - The North American market saw a revenue increase of 3.17% year-on-year, while the European market experienced a significant growth of 22.90% year-on-year, driven by enhanced market promotion and expanded sales channels [3] Summary by Sections Domestic Sales - Revenue from the Chinese market was HKD 10.236 billion, down 16.94% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 40.4% [2] - Offline store revenue decreased to HKD 6.799 billion, with a net increase of 131 stores, focusing on improving single-store revenue [2] - Online sales strategies included live streaming and collaborations with key influencers, contributing to brand visibility and sales growth [2] International Sales - North America generated HKD 4.420 billion in revenue, up 3.17% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 41.50% [3] - European and other overseas markets achieved revenue of HKD 1.469 billion, a 22.90% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 31.0% [3] Product Categories - Sofa and related products generated HKD 11.743 billion, down 7.24% year-on-year, with total sales of 1.885 million sets [4] - Bed products saw a revenue decline to HKD 2.408 billion, down 19.4% year-on-year, impacted by weak domestic demand [4] Financial Metrics - The gross margin improved to 40.5%, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs [5] - The company effectively controlled expenses, with a period expense ratio of 23.51%, leading to significant profit release potential [10] - Future revenue projections estimate HKD 17.886 billion for 2025, reflecting a 6% growth, and net profit of HKD 2.273 billion, a 10% increase [11]