Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - **Copper**: The main copper futures price fluctuated narrowly below 78,000 yuan today, with a slight decline in open interest. Due to tariff impacts, the uncertainty of copper has increased, causing the price to rise and then fall, and the market's attention to copper has rapidly declined. The short - term speculative nature of copper has decreased, and its volatility may continue to decline. The continuous rebound of the US dollar index has put pressure on copper prices. The basis and calendar spread have continued to weaken, indicating a loosening of spot supply during the industrial off - season. After the copper price dropped, downstream industries showed a strong willingness to replenish inventory, providing support for the futures price. Continued attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 78,000 - yuan level [5]. - **Aluminum**: The main aluminum futures price fluctuated narrowly around 20,400 yuan today, with little change in open interest. Entering the off - season, the downstream operating rate has decreased, the basis and calendar spread of electrolytic aluminum have weakened, and inventory has started to rise. On July 17, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 471,000 tons, down 12,000 tons from Monday this week and up 16,000 tons from last Thursday. The improvement in the domestic macro - environment may stabilize the aluminum price. However, the decline in off - season demand and high upstream profits are not conducive to the upward movement of the aluminum price. Technically, the main aluminum futures price has stabilized in the vicinity of the 40 - day moving average, and it is expected to move in a fluctuating manner [6]. - **Nickel**: The main nickel futures price fluctuated below 120,000 yuan today, and briefly reached above the 120,000 - yuan mark in the afternoon, with a slight decline in open interest. Since this week, the non - ferrous metal sector as a whole has shown a trend of fluctuating and stabilizing, and the positive domestic macro - environment has provided support for non - ferrous metals. However, the medium - to - long - term fundamentals of nickel are weak. Recently, the inventory at upstream ports has continued to rise, and the supply at the ore end has become looser, weakening the support for the nickel price. Technically, continued attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 120,000 - yuan level [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In June 2025, China's copper product output was 2.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 11.765 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. In June, the refined copper (electrolytic copper) output was 1.302 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 7.363 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. The top three provinces in terms of copper product output from January to June were Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, with Jiangxi's copper product output reaching 2.8595 million tons [9]. - **Aluminum**: In June 2025, China's alumina output was 7.749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. In June, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.809 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 22.379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In June, the aluminum product output was 5.874 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 32.768 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In June, the aluminum alloy output was 166,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 909,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. From January to June, Shandong ranked first in output with 7.2632 million tons, Henan ranked second with 5.8375 million tons, and Guangxi ranked third with 2.3962 million tons [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 17, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Jinchuan electrolytic nickel's mainstream premium was +2050 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,530 yuan/ton; the Russian nickel's mainstream premium was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,030 yuan/ton; the Norwegian nickel's mainstream premium was +3600 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,080 yuan/ton; and the nickel bean's mainstream premium was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 118,580 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report presents multiple charts related to copper, including the copper basis, copper calendar spread, domestic and overseas copper inventories, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE copper warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on the aluminum basis, aluminum calendar spread, domestic and overseas aluminum inventories, alumina price trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report provides charts on the nickel basis, LME nickel inventory, SHFE nickel inventory, LME nickel price trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.80%, showing a pattern of increasing volume and decreasing positions. The supply - demand of rebar remained weak, and the fundamentals continued the seasonal weakness. However, the low inventory and policy expectations, along with strong raw materials, provided cost support. It was expected that the rebar price would continue to fluctuate and stabilize [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate rose with a daily increase of 1.23%, and both volume and positions expanded. The supply of hot - rolled coil decreased while the demand was resilient. The fundamentals improved, inventory decreased again, and policy expectations and strong raw materials supported the price. It was expected to run in a moderately strong oscillation, but the risk of weak external demand should be guarded against [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore was strong with a daily increase of 1.81%, and both volume and positions expanded. In the current supply - demand weak situation, the fundamentals of iron ore were weakly stable. Policy expectations and optimism supported the high - level and strong operation of ore prices, but the valuation was high, and a shift in the trading logic to the industrial side should be guarded against [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the output of major machinery and equipment in China showed different performances. The output of excavators, metal - cutting machine tools, and metal - forming machine tools increased significantly, with year - on - year growth of 12.4%, 13.5%, and 10.4% respectively. The output of small tractors decreased significantly, with a year - on - year decline of 15.8% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the output of four major household appliances in China was released. The output of washing machines increased by 10.3% year - on - year. The output of air conditioners increased by 5.5% year - on - year, the output of refrigerators remained flat year - on - year, and the output of color TVs decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [7]. - In the first half of 2025, China's rebar output was 98.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The output of medium - thick wide steel strips increased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the output of wire rods increased by 0.6% year - on - year [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The report provided a black metal spot quotation table, including prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, and prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The report presented a table of the main contract futures prices, including the closing price, increase or decrease, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, volume difference, open interest, and position difference of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, and iron ore [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report included charts of steel and iron ore inventory (rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore at 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines), steel mill production (247 sample steel mills' blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, profit - making steel mills' proportion, 87 independent electric furnace start - up rate, and 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profit and loss situation) [13][18][27]. 3.5 Future Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply - demand remained weak. The weekly output decreased by 7.60 tons week - on - week, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 15.33 tons week - on - week. Due to low inventory, policy expectations, and cost support from strong raw materials, the price was expected to continue to fluctuate and stabilize [36]. - Hot - rolled coil plate: The supply decreased by 2.00 tons week - on - week, and the demand was resilient with an increase of 1.28 tons week - on - week. The fundamentals improved, and the price was expected to run in a moderately strong oscillation, but the risk of weak external demand should be guarded against [37]. - Iron ore: Both supply and demand weakened. The terminal consumption of ore decreased, and the supply also contracted. Policy expectations supported the high - level and strong operation of ore prices, but a shift in the trading logic to the industrial side should be guarded against [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.83% to 14,525 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Thursday [5]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and large month - on - month output pressure. The downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed down, and the terminal demand has entered the off - season. After the previous negative expectations were gradually digested, the futures price has entered a volatile recovery trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract's decline slowed down, with the price slightly down 0.13% to 11,405 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Thursday [7]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The operating loads of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have slightly increased, driving up the output and capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber. The downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed down, and the terminal demand has entered the off - season. After the negative factors were digested by the price correction, the decline of the futures price has slowed down [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, showing a sideways - weak trend in the short - term, sideways in the medium - term, and a sideways - weak trend intraday [1][5] - The imbalance between supply and demand, with increasing supply and decreasing demand, is the main factor leading to the weak operation of methanol. However, the possible new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures [5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Trend - On Wednesday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a sideways - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.59% to 2362 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Thursday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a sideways - weak trend [5] 3.2 Market Logic - Domestically, methanol production capacity is continuously released, increasing internal supply pressure. Overseas shipments are constantly arriving, increasing external supply expectations. Ports are entering a inventory - building cycle, while downstream demand is entering the off - season, resulting in a looser supply - demand structure [5] - After the previous sharp correction, the bearish sentiment has been released. The recent high - level meeting in China has set the tone for governance of low - price disorderly competition and promotion of the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity, and a new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - For the crude oil 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the overall reference view is "weak operation". Due to the existence of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the premium of crude oil has increased. After the previous sharp decline, the confidence of long - positions in the oil market has increased again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. With the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand factor for crude oil has come into play. However, 8 major oil - producing countries among OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. After the bearish impact of the production increase is gradually digested and the original production increase plan of the oil - producing country organization is gradually realized, the room for further expansion of production in the future is limited. Against the background of differences between long and short positions in the oil market, on Wednesday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained an oscillating and weakening trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.45% to 504.7 yuan per barrel, and it is expected that on Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend. [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil 2509 Contract Views - Short - term: Oscillation [1] - Medium - term: Oscillation [1] - Intraday: Oscillation and weakening [1] - Reference view: Weak operation [1] Price and Trend - On Wednesday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained an oscillating and weakening trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.45% to 504.7 yuan per barrel, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Thursday. [5] Core Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased the premium of crude oil. After the previous sharp decline, the confidence of long - positions in the oil market has increased, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted demand. 8 major oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. After the bearish impact of the production increase is digested and the original production increase plan is realized, the room for further production expansion is limited. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on stock index futures is that they will show a range - bound oscillation in the short - term. In the short - term, the upward momentum of the stock index has weakened, and it will enter an oscillation and consolidation phase without incremental policies. In the medium - term, the stock index is expected to rise [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Sections 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias, and the overall view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view on IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillation with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1461.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 173.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Since late June, the stock index has rebounded significantly, and the policy - expectation trading is quite sufficient. Further rebound requires policy support from the Politburo meeting in July. The main logic of this stock index rebound is the expectation of policy benefits in the second half of the year. Although the macro - economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the expectation of policy support in the second half of the year is still strong. Considering that the policy is expected to take effect in the third or fourth quarter, without incremental policies in the short - term, the previous optimistic expectations will gradually cool down, and the stock index will enter an oscillation and consolidation phase [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to continue its pressured operation, with short - term dollar index rebound being a negative factor for gold prices. Copper is expected to stabilize with short - term strength, supported by downstream replenishment and narrowing of refined - scrap spreads [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Short - term view**: Downward [1] - **Mid - term view**: Sideways [1] - **Intraday view**: Weakly sideways [1] - **Reference view**: Sideways operation [1] - **Core logic**: Overnight gold price fluctuations intensified. The New York gold initially dropped to around $3330, then quickly rose to around $3380, followed by a pull - back. The dollar index showed a dip - rebound. Market speculation about Trump potentially firing Powell and subsequent denial led to market volatility. The short - term rebound of the dollar index is negative for gold prices [3]. Copper - **Short - term view**: Upward [1] - **Mid - term view**: Sideways [1] - **Intraday view**: Strongly sideways [1] - **Reference view**: Short - term strength [1] - **Core logic**: Since this week, copper prices have been oscillating around 78,000 yuan. The decline in Shanghai copper positions to below 500,000 contracts indicates reduced capital attention. Tariff impacts increase price uncertainty, causing short - term capital outflows. Downstream replenishment and narrowing of refined - scrap spreads support copper prices, and the narrowing LME import loss reflects an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". Due to recent central bank liquidity injection, the tight liquidity situation has eased. As the bond yield approaches the policy rate, the upward momentum of bond yields is insufficient, limiting the downside of bond futures. With the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year, so there is potential for bond futures to rebound. However, due to the economic resilience in the first half of the year, policy efforts may come in the third or fourth quarter, resulting in low short - term interest rate cut expectations and limited upward momentum for bond futures. Overall, bond futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The central bank's recent net injection of liquidity has alleviated the tight liquidity situation. As the bond yield approaches the policy rate, the upward momentum of bond yields is insufficient, limiting the downside of bond futures. Given the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year, so there is potential for bond futures to rebound. However, due to the economic resilience in the first half of the year, policy efforts may come in the third or fourth quarter, resulting in low short - term interest rate cut expectations and limited upward momentum for bond futures. Overall, bond futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the agricultural products sector in commodity futures is that the short - term and intraday trends of soymeal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, while the medium - term trends are all oscillating [5][8][9]. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference views are oscillating and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillating [5]. - **Core Logic**: The positive export outlook of US soybeans boosts the rebound of US soybean futures prices, and strong US soybean crushing demand is an important support. In the domestic market, the negative basis of soymeal continues to widen, and the short - term supply expectation of soymeal futures prices dominates the market again, with futures stronger than spot, maintaining an intraday oscillation and slightly stronger pattern [5]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference views are oscillating and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillating [8]. - **Core Logic**: The lower - than - expected US soybean oil inventory supports US soybean oil futures prices, which continue to run in an oscillating and slightly stronger manner. The domestic soybean oil market is mainly driven by the cost support of raw soybeans and the linkage boost from the strengthening of US soybean oil futures prices, and is expected to continue the oscillating and slightly stronger trend in the short term [8]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference views are oscillating and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillating [9]. - **Core Logic**: The improving fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil boost palm oil futures prices, which have a continuous linkage effect on domestic palm oil futures prices. The domestic palm oil futures prices follow the fluctuations of the international palm oil market, and the low enthusiasm of funds restricts the rebound space, showing a short - term oscillating and slightly stronger trend [9].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 淡季特征未退，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢基本面弱势运行，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，螺纹产量再度下降，供应有所收缩但依旧处于年 内高位，且品种吨钢利润较好，压力缓解有限。同时，螺纹需求季节性弱势，高频需求指标均走 弱，且位于近年来同期低位，淡季需求特征未退，弱势需求继续承压钢价。总之，螺纹钢基本面延 续季节性弱势，淡 ...