1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The introduction of offset printing paper futures and options precisely meets the risk management needs of China's cultural paper market, improves the full - cycle risk management system of the pulp and paper industry, and enhances the quality and efficiency of the commodity futures market in serving the real economy. After the listing of offset printing paper futures and options, they are expected to become the "price anchor" of the industry, providing tools for price discovery and risk control for enterprises, helping to form an open, transparent, and authoritative market price, and improving the pricing efficiency of spot trading to guide enterprises to scientifically and reasonably formulate production plans [92]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Spot prices oscillated and rebounded, and the basis widened (no detailed content provided) [1]. - Futures prices rose, and the monthly spread turned to contango (no detailed content provided) [5]. 3.2 Rubber Market Supply and Demand - The output of rubber - producing countries steadily rebounded, increasing supply pressure (no detailed content provided) [2.1]. - Tire开工率 slightly rebounded (no detailed content provided) [2.2]. - Automobile market sales significantly improved [2.3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the bonded area in Qingdao increased [2.4]. 3.3 Offset Printing Paper Basics - Paper is mainly divided into four categories: cultural paper, packaging paper, tissue paper, and specialty paper. Cultural paper is used for cultural dissemination and includes offset printing paper, which has single - sided and double - sided types. Double - sided offset printing paper (double - gum paper) is the mainstream, with a difference in glue layers compared to single - sided paper. Offset paper has good properties such as tight texture, low stretch, and strong water resistance [10]. 3.4 Double - Gum Paper Basic Characteristics - Quantitative: Generally between 60 - 120 grams, with 70 - 120 grams being the most widely used, and there are also high - quantitative ones like 150, 180, and 300 grams. - Appearance: The cut edges should be neat and clean, with a uniform fiber structure, a flat paper surface, and no defects such as folds, holes, or powder - shedding. - Whiteness: Divided into high - white, natural - white, ivory - white, and beige, with different whiteness ranges. - Size: Flat - paper has domestic and international standard sizes, and can be cut into various specifications; reel - paper has common widths such as 787mm, 1092mm, and 850mm [19][20][21]. 3.5 Offset Printing Paper Quality Standards - The current national standard for offset paper is GB/T30130 - 2023, which came into effect on July 1, 2024. It has made some changes compared to the previous standard, such as modifying some technical terms and adding technical requirements for primary and secondary school students' paper [22]. 3.6 Double - Gum Paper Industry Chain - Upstream: Main raw materials are pulp (including coniferous, broad - leaved, and chemical mechanical pulp), accounting for 70% - 75% of production costs. Chemical auxiliary materials and energy also contribute to costs [24]. - Mid - stream: Through processes such as cooking, washing, screening, bleaching, and coating, pulp is made into double - gum paper [25]. - Downstream: Mainly used in books, brochures, notebooks, and periodicals, with book demand accounting for about 90%. Key demand entities include cultural and media companies and printing factories [26]. 3.7 Double - Gum Paper Supply - Since 2020, domestic double - gum paper production capacity has expanded rapidly. In 2024, the production capacity growth rate was about 9.7%, reaching 1608 million tons. Production is mainly concentrated in East, South, and Central China, with East China having the largest share. - In 2024, the output was about 10.49 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 65%. There is a seasonal pattern in monthly output, with lower production in January and February due to the Spring Festival and higher production from March to May and September to December due to increased demand for teaching materials. - Some paper mills' expansion plans are more inclined to South China in recent years. There is still about 1.75 million tons of new production capacity to be put into production this year, with 1 million tons in South China. The industry concentration is increasing, and the CR4 in 2024 was about 48% [29][30]. 3.8 Double - Gum Paper Demand - China's pulp consumption shows a slow - growing but unstable trend. The apparent consumption of double - gum paper exceeded 9 million tons in 2023 and 2024, reaching 9.72 million tons in 2024. - Export volume is relatively small, accounting for about 10% of annual consumption in 2024. Demand for teaching materials accounts for about 40% of double - gum paper demand. There are obvious seasonal characteristics, with peak demand from March to May and September to December [38]. 3.9 Double - Gum Paper Import and Export - Import policy: Since January 1, 2023, the temporary import tariff rate for double - gum paper has been 0%. - Export policy: The export tax - refund policy for paper and cardboard was cancelled in 2004. - From 2017 - 2024, China generally had a net - export pattern in double - gum paper, except for 2020 - 2021 when it turned to net - import due to the pandemic. In 2024, the import volume was 199,000 tons, and the export volume was 967,600 tons [46][47]. 3.10 Double - Gum Paper Inventory - There are two types of inventory: enterprise inventory and social inventory, with social inventory being much larger. In the past five years, enterprise inventory was generally between 40 - 100 million tons, and social inventory was between 100 - 170 million tons. As of December 2024, both were at relatively low levels year - on - year [51]. 3.11 Double - Gum Paper Spot Price - From 2022 to April 2023, prices oscillated upward due to high raw material prices and stable order release. From April to July 2023, prices回调 due to falling pulp prices and downstream hesitation. After July 2023, prices rebounded, and then fluctuated due to various factors such as production line shutdowns, order releases, and trade - capital recovery. In 2024, prices showed a downward trend with some rebounds [55]. 3.12 Offset Printing Paper Futures and Options Contracts and Business Rules - Futures contract: The trading unit is 20 tons/hand, the last trading day is the 15th of the contract month, and the delivery grade is double - gum paper with specific quantitative specifications. - Options contract: The underlying is the offset printing paper futures contract, with call and put options available. - Business rules cover trading, delivery, and risk management aspects, including regulations on trading time, margin, position limits, and delivery procedures [57][59][91].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On June 26, the coke主力合约 closed at 1395.5 yuan/ton, up 1.86% intraday. The spot prices at Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port decreased week-on-week. With the accumulation of positive factors, the market sentiment changed, and the coke futures rebounded at a low level. The market is expected to be in a stalemate in June, and the coking coal supply in July should be monitored [5][33]. - On June 26, the coking coal主力合约 closed at 819.5 points, up 3.60% intraday. The supply of coking coal shrank during the safety month, and the import volume was also restricted. After the coking coal price reached a multi - year low in early June, the contract started to rise. The recovery of Shanxi's production in July should be focused on [6][34]. Summary by Directory Industry News - From April to May 2025, the number of global new shipbuilding orders decreased by 46, and the corrected total tonnage decreased by 63.85% month - on - month. Compared with May 2024, the number decreased by 111, and the corrected total tonnage decreased by 54.71% year - on - year. Chinese shipyards received the most orders, and South Korea ranked second [8]. - On June 26, Mongolia's small TT company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 4 raw coal was 78 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton from June 5. All 102,400 tons were sold at the base price [9]. Spot Market - For coke, the current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade flat - price coke is 1,220 yuan/ton, down 3.94% week - on - week; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse price is 1,140 yuan/ton, down 2.56% week - on - week [10]. - For coking coal, the current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 865 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of Australian - produced coal at Jingtang Port is 1,190 yuan/ton, down 1.65% week - on - week; the price of Shanxi - produced coal at Jingtang Port is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the coke主力合约 was 1,395.5 yuan/ton, up 1.86%, with a trading volume of 22,795 and an open interest of 51,299, an increase of 24 from the previous trading day [13]. - The closing price of the coking coal主力合约 was 819.5 points, up 3.60%, with a trading volume of 870,999 and an open interest of 564,662, an increase of 40,404 from the previous trading day [13]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port, and total inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine mouth, port, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), and other related charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, and coking plant production [14][21][27]. Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short - term rebound of coke futures and the upward trend of coking coal contracts, and suggesting to pay attention to the coking coal supply in July and the production recovery in Shanxi [33][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the volume and open interest expanded. The supply of rebar continued to rise, while the demand was weakly stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and steel prices were under pressure. However, the inventory inflection point was yet to appear, and the real - world contradictions were limited. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 0.39%, and the volume increased while the open interest remained stable. The supply of hot - rolled coil was stable at a high level, while the demand weakened. The fundamental contradictions accumulated, and the price of hot - rolled coil continued to be under pressure and oscillated at a low level. Attention should be paid to the risk of tariffs after the "exemption period" ends [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated higher, with a daily increase of 0.64%, and the volume increased while the open interest decreased. The demand for iron ore showed some resilience, supporting the ore price. However, the supply remained at a high level, and the demand growth space was limited. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore did not improve substantially, and the ore price continued to be under pressure and oscillated at a low level. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - In May 2025, the number of new global shipbuilding orders was 73, a decrease of 46 from April 2025. The corrected total tonnage decreased by 63.85% month - on - month and 54.71% year - on - year. Chinese shipyards received the most orders, followed by South Korea [6]. - The third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July 2025. The relevant departments will coordinate to ensure the orderly implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy throughout the year [7]. - The Eurasian Economic Commission decided to continue imposing a 15.50% anti - dumping duty on seamless steel pipes originating from China until June 23, 2030. The announcement will take effect on July 24, 2025 [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,030, 3,160, and 3,190 respectively, with price changes of - 10, - 20, and - 6. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,180, 3,100, and 3,218 respectively, with no price changes. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,910 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100 with a - 10 change. The coil - rebar price difference was 150, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 930 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 702 with a + 2 change, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 697 with no change. The sea freight from Australia was 8.78, and from Brazil was 22.68. The SGX swap price (current month) was 94.30, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 92.75 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 2,973, with a 0.10% increase, the highest price was 2,977, the lowest price was 2,952, the trading volume was 1,377,892 with an increase of 16,628, and the open interest was 2,191,778 with an increase of 19,178 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,103, with a 0.39% increase, the highest price was 3,104, the lowest price was 3,080, the trading volume was 552,939 with an increase of 19,514, and the open interest was 1,510,669 with an increase of 263 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 705.5, with a 0.64% increase, the highest price was 707.5, the lowest price was 698.0, the trading volume was 326,475 with an increase of 10,602, and the open interest was 654,225 with a decrease of 17,723 [11]. Related Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes and total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil, and inventories of iron ore at ports, steel mills, and domestic mines [13][18][28] - Charts also show the production situation of steel mills, such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate of independent electric furnaces and the profit - loss situation of independent electric arc furnace steel mills [28][31][35] Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern changed little. The weekly output increased by 5.66 tons, and the demand was weakly stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and steel prices were expected to continue to oscillate [36]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern changed. The weekly output increased by 1.79 tons, and the demand weakened. The price was under pressure and oscillated at a low level, and attention should be paid to the tariff risk after the "exemption period" ends [36]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern changed. The terminal consumption of ore increased slightly, but the supply remained at a high level. The ore price was under pressure and oscillated at a low level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [37]

宝城期货原油早报-2025-06-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘情绪反复，原油震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-06-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 晨会纪要 --------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend of oscillating strongly [1][5] - The geopolitical factor weakens, and the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillating and strongly - biased trend on Thursday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend - After experiencing a sharp decline on Tuesday and stabilizing on Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures had an oversold rebound on Wednesday night, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.30% to 2419 yuan/ton [5] Market Logic - As US President Trump's comments indicated the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel, and then the two countries announced a formal cease - fire, the geopolitical trading logic weakened. The prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures and international methanol prices declined [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both the short - term and medium - term views for both coking coal and coke are "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the stronger side", and the overall reference view is an "oscillation approach" [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of June 25, the main coking coal contract closed at 807.0 points, with a 2.02% increase during the night session. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port is 865.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 834 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: During the safety month, domestic coking coal production has shrunk due to safety inspections, environmental protection, and operational pressure, and the price inversion of imported coal has curbed imports, alleviating the pessimistic supply - side expectations. However, the geopolitical issue between Iran and Israel has temporarily subsided, and with the end of the safety month in June, there is an expectation of increased supply in July, so the main coking coal contract is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [5]. Coke (J) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of June 25, the main coke contract closed at 1386.0 yuan/ton, with a 1.17% increase. The latest quotation of the flat - closing price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1220 yuan/ton, a 3.94% week - on - week decrease; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1150 yuan/ton, a 1.71% week - on - week decrease [6]. - **Core Logic**: As positive factors accumulate, the previously pessimistic market sentiment has changed, and the game between long and short positions has intensified, leading to a wide - range oscillation of coke futures at a low level. Although coking coal supply has shrunk in June, it is expected to recover after the safety month, and the long - term export of ferrous metal terminals still faces pressure. Therefore, the coke futures are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in June [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局走弱，钢价承压运行 | 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢产业矛盾在累积，建筑钢厂提产，螺纹钢产量环比增加，供应迎来回升，关注后续增幅 情况。同时，螺纹高频需求指标延续下行，季节性走弱特征明显，弱势需求易抑制钢价。目前来 看，螺纹钢供应有所回升，而需求表现疲弱，供需矛盾在累积，钢价继续承压，相对利好则是库存 偏低，短期螺纹延续维持震荡寻底态势，关注今日钢联公布的产销数据情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价 ...

宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面未改善，矿价低位震荡 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 铁矿石基本面弱势运行，库存持续累库，钢厂有所提产，矿石终端消耗迎来回升，需求韧性表现 尚可，给予矿价支撑，但淡季钢市难以承接持续增产，空间有限。相反，财年末矿商冲量积极，港口 到货和矿商发运均大幅回升，双双升至年内高位，相应的内矿供应也在恢复，矿石供应居高不下。综 上，矿石需求韧性表现尚可，给予矿价支撑，但供应维持高位，且需求增量空间有限，矿石供需格局 并未实质性好转，矿价继续承压、低位震荡运行，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） ...

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 5.4% year-on-year, consistent with the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up from 49.0% in the previous month but the same as the same period last year; the non-manufacturing business activity PMI was 50.3%, down from 50.4% in the previous month and 51.1% in the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.1%, 2.3%, and 7.9% respectively, with M1 and M2 showing an upward trend compared to the previous month [1] - In May 2025, new RMB loans from financial institutions were 620 billion yuan, an increase from 280 billion yuan in the previous month but a decrease from 950 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, the CPI was -0.1% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month but down from 0.3% in the same period last year; the PPI was -3.3% year-on-year, a decline from -2.7% in the previous month and -1.4% in the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.7%, down from 4.0% in the previous month and the same period last year; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 5.0%, up from 4.7% in the previous month and 4.1% in the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a decline from 8.1% in the previous month and 7.41% in the same period last year; imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, a larger decline than -0.2% in the previous month and 2.14% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is seeking public comments on the futures contracts, options contracts, and business rules of offset printing paper. The introduction of offset printing paper futures and options is expected to meet the risk management needs of the pulp and paper industry [2] - The US will hold talks with Iran on a potential nuclear agreement next week. Trump is "very sure" that the military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, but the conflict may resume [2] - Fed Chair Powell said that if the US labor market weakens and inflation falls, the Fed may cut interest rates in advance. The futures market shows a 23% probability of a rate cut in July and a higher probability in September [2] - As Trump's "tariff deadline" on July 9 approaches, the EU is preparing more tariff countermeasures. US foreign direct investment has declined significantly, and the US trade deficit from January to May may hit a record [3] 2.2 Metals - On June 25, domestic gold jewelry prices generally fell. For example, Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry price dropped to 998 yuan per gram, a decrease of 14 yuan per gram from the previous day [4] - India plans to discuss locking in copper supplies from resource - rich countries in ongoing trade negotiations and is considering measures to increase domestic refined copper production. India imports over 90% of its copper concentrate, and the dependence is expected to rise to 97% by 2047 [5] - The US imposed a 50% tariff on various steel household appliances on June 23, which will increase costs for US businesses and consumers [5] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the average price of LME copper in the second half of 2025 to $9,890 per ton, higher than the previous forecast of $9,140 [5] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - June, the price of coking coal (main coking coal) in the circulation field decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, reaching a record low of 1,096.4 yuan per ton [6] - As of mid - June, the price of rebar (HRB400E Φ20mm) in the circulation field decreased by 0.02% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level since mid - August 2024 at 3,110.4 yuan per ton [6] - In May, the global crude steel production of 70 countries/regions was 158.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. China's crude steel production was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; India's was 13.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [6] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - International oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 5.836 million barrels last week, exceeding expectations. Oil prices may remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policy changes [7] - The US natural gas inventory is expected to increase by 88 billion cubic meters last week according to the EIA report [8] - Trump said that China can continue to buy oil from Iran and hopes China will also buy a large amount of oil from the US. China will take reasonable energy security measures based on its national interests [8] 2.5 Agricultural Products - As of mid - June, the price of soybeans (yellow soybeans) in the circulation field increased by 0.85% month - on - month, reaching the highest level since mid - September 2024 at 4,390.1 yuan per ton [9] - As of mid - June, the price of cotton (Grade 3 white lint) in the circulation field increased by 1.7% month - on - month, reaching the highest level since late March at 14,284.1 yuan per ton [9] - Malaysia set the reference price of crude palm oil for July at 3,730.48 ringgit per ton, with an export tax rate of 8.5% [9] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On June 25, the central bank conducted 365.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with a net investment of 209 billion yuan after deducting the 156.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due on the same day [10] 3.2 Important News - Premier Li Qiang said at the 2025 Summer Davos Forum that China will continue to actively integrate into the global market and contribute to world economic development [11][12] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out that efforts should be made to build a unified national market, expand domestic demand, and promote the innovation and development of high - end equipment manufacturing and other industries [12] - Minister of Finance Lan Fuan reported that from January to May, the issuance of treasury bonds was 6.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 38.5%; new local government bonds were 1.98 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 36.6%; and refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts were 1.63 trillion yuan, accounting for 81.5% of the annual quota [12] - The front - page article of China Securities Journal stated that in the first half of 2025, China's policies to expand domestic demand have boosted economic growth. Policies to trade in old consumer goods for new ones have been effective, and service consumption has grown significantly [13] - The Securities Association of China is conducting a survey on the regulatory system of bond market intermediaries and investor protection systems [13] - Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region issued an implementation opinion on optimizing the management mechanism of government special bonds, including requirements for project support and risk prevention [13] - Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region formulated a debt resolution plan for Liuzhou [14] - Bond market yields have generally declined recently, and most short - term pure bond funds and some medium - and long - term pure bond funds have reached new highs. However, whether the bond market can turn bullish depends on policy implementation [14] - Chengdu Jiaozi Financial Holding Group issued a 1.5 - billion - yuan corporate bond for the elderly, with a 5 - year term and an interest rate of 1.91%, setting a record low for the same - term corporate bonds in Sichuan [15] - The expansion project of Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, marking the further formation of the "initial offering + expansion" dual - wheel drive pattern in the public REITs market [15] - Trump is considering appointing a new Fed Chair in September or October, with potential candidates including Warsh and Hassett [16] - Fed Chair Powell said that the economic situation is highly uncertain, and the Fed will base its decisions on actual data. The US economy is performing better than others, and the Fed may resume rate cuts at some point [17] - Morgan Stanley predicts that due to tariff policies and immigration control, the Fed will not cut interest rates in 2025 but will start cutting in March 2026, with a total of seven rate cuts throughout the year [17] - There were a series of bond - related events, including investigations into corporate executives, court - approved restructuring plans, regulatory filings, and credit rating adjustments [18] - Moody's and other rating agencies made rating adjustments to some companies, and Fitch predicted that the global petrochemical industry's downturn may last until 2028 [18] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market showed narrow fluctuations, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rising. The 30 - year bond futures contract fell 0.22% [19] - In the exchange - listed bond market, some bonds rose, and the Wande Real Estate Bond 30 Index and Wande High - Yield Urban Investment Bond Index both rose 0.02% [20] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed up 0.80% at 441.46 points, reaching a new high since April 13, 2015 [20] - On June 25, most money market interest rates rose, and Shibor short - end varieties also increased [21] - The winning bid yields of Agricultural Development Bank's 1.074 - year, 3 - year, and 10 - year financial bonds were 1.4076%, 1.6739%, and 1.7537% respectively [22] - European bond yields generally rose, while US bond yields declined across the board, driven by Powell's rate - cut signal and concerns about inflation and the economy [23] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.1713 against the US dollar on June 25, up 68 points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1668, down 12 points from the previous trading day [24] - The US dollar index fell 0.28% in late New York trading, and most non - US currencies rose [24] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - Income said that the current consumption situation is that policy - driven consumption is strong, while endogenous momentum is weak. Short - term consumption momentum may slow down, but there is still room for policy in the medium term [25] - Ming Ming of CITIC Securities said that considering the possible acceleration of government bond issuance in the third quarter, the central bank may take measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts to provide liquidity support [25] 3.6 Today's Reminder - On June 26, 267 bonds will be listed, 182 bonds will be issued, 147 bonds will have payments due, and 154 bonds will pay principal and interest [27] 4. Stock Market News - On Wednesday, the A - share market continued to rebound with heavy trading volume, led by the large - finance sector. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.04% to 3,455.97 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.11% [28] - The Hang Seng Index rose 1.23% to 24,474.67 points, and the net purchase of southbound funds was HK$9.574 billion. Guotai Junan International and SMIC received significant net purchases [28] - Guotai Junan International was approved to upgrade its securities trading license to provide virtual asset trading services, and its stock price soared 198.4%. Many other Chinese - funded brokers in Hong Kong are also applying for relevant licenses [28] - Foreign institutions have been actively researching A - share listed companies, mainly in industries such as electronics, machinery, and computers. Since June, 76 A - share companies have received foreign institutional research, and 30 of them have received at least 3 foreign institutions [28] - China Pacific Insurance's private equity fund with 20 billion yuan has been officially registered and will enter the market [29] - Li Ka - shing's son Richard Li's FWD Group may start the book - building process as early as Thursday, with an expected IPO of about $500 million and an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund as a cornerstone investor [29] - TSMC's overseas subsidiary plans to issue $10 billion in new shares to strengthen its foreign exchange hedging business [29]