Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In April, due to the US tariff policy, business production and operation activities slowed down significantly. Although the three major indices (manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index) slowed down, China's economy generally remained in an expansionary phase [3]. - On the demand side, external demand slowed down rapidly in the short term, while domestic demand rebounded. Policy support increased, but overall demand was still slowing. In production, industrial production decreased due to the slowdown in domestic and foreign demand, but it was expected to continue growing at a relatively high speed with the support of domestic demand policies. In terms of prices, domestic - demand - type commodity prices were weak, and external - demand - type commodity prices fluctuated [3]. Summary by Relevant Content Overall Economic Situation - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49% (expected 49.8%, previous value 50.5%), the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.4% (expected 50.6%, previous value 50.8%), and the composite PMI was 50.2% (previous value 51.4%). All three indices decreased compared to the previous month, but the economy remained in an expansionary range [1][3][4]. - In domestic investment, real - estate sales improved, but investment recovery was slow; infrastructure investment accelerated due to the rapid issuance of special bonds; manufacturing investment maintained high - speed growth, but short - term restocking motivation weakened [3]. - Consumption growth accelerated significantly, strongly driving the economy. Exports decreased significantly due to tariff impacts on overseas demand, and future export growth was expected to slow further [3]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI fell to the contraction range and was lower than market expectations. The new order index was 49.2%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in market demand. The production index was 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points, showing a slight slowdown in production [3]. - The new export order index and import index were 44.7% and 43.4% respectively, down 4.3% and 4.1% from the previous month, indicating a significant decline in external demand due to tariffs and a decrease in import demand due to external shocks [3]. - The price index continued to decline. The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index were 47% and 44.8% respectively, down 2.8 and 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the US tariff policy and global economic uncertainties [3][4]. - Both the finished - product inventory index and the raw - material inventory index decreased. The finished - product inventory index dropped 0.7 percentage points to 47.3%, and the raw - material inventory index decreased 0.2 percentage points to 47% [4]. Non - manufacturing Sector - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point. The service industry business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points, and the construction industry business activity index was 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points [4]. - In the service industry, sectors such as air transportation, telecommunications, and IT services were in a high - prosperity range, while sectors like water transportation and capital market services were below the critical point. In the construction industry, the civil engineering construction business activity index was 60.9%, up 6.4 percentage points [4]. - The service industry business activity expectation index was 56.4%, and the construction industry business activity expectation index was 53.8%, indicating that most enterprises in these two industries were confident about market development [4]. Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that overall business production and operation activities remained in an expansionary phase, although at a slower pace [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall domestic and overseas markets are affected by various factors such as policies, economic data, and trade situations during the May Day holiday. Different asset classes face different opportunities and risks, with most markets expected to show a certain degree of volatility and uncertainty [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Category Domestic Macro - The Politburo meeting at the end of April indicated the possibility of introducing incremental policies, including potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. Attention should be paid to whether these policies are implemented. - Overseas economic data releases and changes in US trade policy signals during the May Day holiday may cause significant fluctuations in overseas markets, which could impact the domestic market. - The domestic travel, tourism, and consumption situation during the May Day holiday should be monitored to see if it meets expectations [1]. Overseas Macro - The US is currently sending signals of trade relaxation, but new trade policy signals need to be watched for their impact on the market. - The release of Q1 GDP data in Europe and the US, as well as US April non - farm payrolls and PMI data during the May Day holiday, will have an impact on the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts and may also lead to concerns about the US economic stagflation risk [2]. Stock Index - The A - share market has recently rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3300 points. It shows strong resilience due to factors such as increased external demand pressure, the implementation of domestic policies, and support from capital market policies. - However, the domestic fundamental driving force is insufficient, and there are still disturbances from US tariff policies and performance disclosures. The index is expected to fluctuate within a range. - During the May Day holiday, attention should be paid to the impact of new US trade policy signals and European and American economic data on the domestic stock market [3]. Gold/Silver - With the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts and the potential for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled, and precious metals face high - level adjustment risks. - However, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut, the low - level operation of the US dollar index and US Treasury real yields provide some support for precious metals. - Economic data releases during the May Day holiday may bring uncertainties to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, which will affect precious metal prices [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel market has stopped falling during the May Day holiday, supported by expectations of crude steel reduction and macro - policy strengthening, but is still suppressed by overseas negative factors and shows a range - bound trend. - There are many risk factors during the holiday, including the possibility of repeated overseas trade conflicts and the release of US economic data, as well as the impact of seasonal consumption changes in the steel market [5]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have fluctuated significantly due to the expectation of crude steel reduction. The movement of Singapore swaps during the holiday will have a greater impact on post - holiday prices. - Although the current steel mill profits are good and iron ore shipments are increasing, if the weak demand for steel continues, iron ore prices may decline in May [6]. Coking Coal/Coke - Coke and coking coal have continued their weak trend, with the second round of coke price increases failing. - As the downstream steel demand enters the off - season and the supply of coking coal remains high, the demand for coking coal and coke will continue to be weak after the holiday [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - High tariffs will have a long - term negative impact on the global economy, and domestic policies are more focused on service consumption. - The supply of copper concentrates is tight, but domestic smelting production is high. The demand is in the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. - Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with limited upside potential in the medium term. During the holiday, attention should be paid to US economic data and tariff negotiations, and partial profit - taking of long positions is recommended [8]. Aluminum - There is a lot of news about tariffs, and the US may reduce tariffs on China in the short term. - The production profit of electrolytic aluminum is high, and production is at a high level. Demand is better than expected, and inventory is decreasing. - Considering the release of US economic data and new tariff news during the holiday, it is recommended to gradually close long positions in batches [8]. Tin - The supply of tin is affected by the possible resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, and the import volume is expected to remain high. - The demand for tin is polarized, with strong demand for solder. The inventory decline has slowed down. - Tin prices may rebound in the short term, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions before the holiday [9][10]. Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - Short - term price drivers are limited, and the supply - demand situation is currently good. There is a possibility of a rebound, but attention should be paid to macro data and the progress of various negotiations. - The strategy of short - term long and long - term short remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to position risk control before the holiday [11]. Asphalt - The main risk lies in the crude oil market. Although the transfer of inventory from factories to the social market is smooth, supply is expected to increase in the future. - Short - term demand is not in the peak season, and there is a risk of over - supply. It is recommended to do a good job in risk control [11]. PX - PX prices rose due to a small squeeze in PTA, but there has been no substantial change in supply and demand. The PXN remains stable. - The PTA maintenance plan may change, and there is a possibility of negative feedback in the polyester market during the holiday. It is recommended to increase the risk - control level [12]. PTA - The basis has declined significantly before the holiday, and the near - end price has difficulty rising. After the May Day holiday, the downstream may reduce production, and the inventory reduction may slow down. - Attention should be paid to the impact of negative feedback from downstream factories on PTA prices [13][14]. Ethylene Glycol - Coal prices remain low, and the coal - to - ethylene glycol production capacity has recovered. The downstream may reduce production during the holiday, and inventory may accumulate. - Negative feedback may be transmitted to the upstream raw material end, and ethylene glycol may continue to decline slightly. Attention should be paid to risk control before the holiday [14]. Short - fiber - Demand is weak, and the downstream may increase the holiday time. Overseas orders have limited impact on domestic demand, and the short - fiber market will continue to be weak. Long positions should be held with caution during the holiday [14]. Methanol - The supply is lower than expected, and inventory has decreased due to pre - holiday restocking. However, future supply is expected to increase, which will suppress prices. - Attention should be paid to abnormal fluctuations in crude oil or the macro - economy during the holiday, and light positions are recommended. The impact of the Iranian port explosion also needs to be monitored [15]. PP - Downstream开工率 continues to decline slightly, and upstream maintenance has begun. Although the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, there may be negative demand feedback in the long term. - It is expected to be weak and volatile before the holiday, and light positions are recommended to avoid the risk of crude oil fluctuations [16]. LLDPE - The PE downstream is basically stable, and pre - holiday restocking provides some support. Supply has increased slightly, and inventory has risen slightly. - It is expected to be weak and volatile before the holiday, and light positions are recommended to avoid the risk of crude oil fluctuations [17]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The premium of soybean meal futures over spot has declined in advance. The price of US soybeans provides support for soybean meal futures. - During the May Day holiday, the US soybean market is affected by weather and policy news, and the short - term decline space of the soybean meal 09 contract may be limited. It is recommended to reduce short - position risk exposure [18]. Edible Oils - The domestic edible oil fundamentals are relatively stable, but the unstable rise of US soybean oil driven by policy expectations is the main factor affecting cross - holiday fluctuations. - Domestic edible oils are in the process of inventory reduction, but there are still problems such as high inventory of some varieties. The US soybean oil is less likely to break through the 50 - cent/lb pressure before the second - quarter US biodiesel policy is implemented. - The market is uncertain during the holiday, and it is not advisable to hold positions [18]. Live Pigs - The supply pressure in May is not urgent, and the spot price is expected to be stable in the range of 14 - 15 yuan/kg. The price difference across the holiday may be relatively small. - The futures market is expected to show a range - bound trend [19]. Corn - The expected corn imports for this crop year are likely to be reduced, and the supply - demand balance will be tightened. The C09 contract has strong support. - Weather conditions after the May Day holiday may affect the grain market. The corn futures have risen strongly, but there are differences between the futures and spot markets, and the market uncertainty is high. It is recommended to reduce positions and re - plan after the holiday [20].

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 8 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term maintain A - share four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) as short - term cautious long; commodities as cautious wait - and - see; treasury bonds as cautious wait - and - see; ranking: stock index > treasury bonds > commodities [2] - Commodity strategy ranking: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in Q1 2025, the economy grew strongly and exceeded market expectations. The US's signal of trade relaxation and the Politburo meeting's indication of new incremental policies supported the domestic market sentiment. Internationally, the US economy slowed due to the decline in service - sector prosperity, but the US released positive signals on tariffs, which affected the dollar and global risk appetite. Overall, the domestic market rebounded in the short term, with the stock index maintained for cautious long, the bond market in high - level short - term oscillation, and the commodity market showing different trends [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - The IMF significantly lowered the global economic growth forecast in its April report, with the US economic growth forecast cut by 0.9 percentage points in 2025 [3] - The US President called for the Fed to cut interest rates, mentioned cryptocurrency regulation, and said the US - China trade tension would ease and might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China [3][4] - The Fed's Beige Book showed that international trade policy uncertainty led to a slowdown in the US economic outlook [4] - US economic data such as PMI, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and inflation expectations were released, showing a mixed economic situation [4][5] - The European Central Bank's president mentioned the negative impact of tariffs on economic growth, and the ECB's survey adjusted the euro - zone economic growth and inflation forecasts [5][9] - China's 4 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the central bank increased liquidity support through MLF operations. The Politburo meeting proposed a series of economic stimulus policies [7][8][9] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From April 28 to May 2, various industrial data, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, and housing price indices in different regions will be released [10] 3.3 Global Asset Price Movements - Stock markets: Different stock indices showed different daily, weekly, monthly, and year - to - date changes, with some rising and some falling [11] - Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries changed, with some rising and some falling [11] - Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum, oil, and precious metals had different price changes [11] - Exchange rates: The dollar index, exchange rates between major currencies also had corresponding fluctuations [11] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal consumption and inventory, and iron ore prices and inventory were presented through various charts [13][16][23] - Midstream: Information on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and capacity utilization, and chemical product prices and inventory were shown [41][51][57] - Downstream: Data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales and tire production, and agricultural product prices were provided [70][72][79] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: The US Treasury yield curve and its weekly changes were presented [81] - Domestic liquidity: Central bank's open - market operations, reverse - repurchase maturities, and domestic interest rates such as inter - bank lending rates and bond yields were shown [83][90][94] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From April 27 to May 2, important economic indicators such as industrial enterprise profits, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, housing price indices, GDP, inflation rates, employment data, and central bank policy announcements in different countries and regions will be released [102]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report provides a weekly strategy for crude oil and polyester, covering views, logic, strategies, etc. [2] Group 2: Crude Oil Analysis Views - Long - term central price moves down, short - term price rebounds. Tariff easing may keep oil prices stable, with current spot demand being fair. The structure remains strong, refinery profits rebound, inventory continues to decline, and there is still support for oil prices. Short - term prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. However, over - planned production increases in countries like Kazakhstan may lead to higher - than - expected supply recovery. If demand drops later, it may pressure the market. [2] Logic - Supply increases from Kazakhstan and others will be faster than planned, and if demand weakens again, it will impact the market. [2] Strategy - Short - term long and long - term short [2] Market Conditions - The supply - demand level remains high, the monthly spread is at the highest level since the end of January, and the spot discount is neutral. [4] - U.S. refinery feedstock has increased slightly. As seasonal maintenance nears the end, feedstock demand has risen to a five - year high, inventory levels are low, and refined oil inventory is continuously decreasing. [12][13] - Refining profits have rebounded significantly recently, especially in the U.S. Gulf and Asia - Pacific regions. Spot trading has recovered, and the discount is reasonable. [19] - Refined oil demand exceeds expectations, gasoline and diesel inventories have decreased significantly, and overall inventory pressure is moderate, supporting a bottom - up price rebound. [22] Group 3: Polyester Analysis Views - In the short term, it will fluctuate at a low level. Downstream production remains high, but terminal production has further declined. Although there is some short - term restocking, finished product inventory is still high. Negative feedback may spread downstream. PTA prices may have a short - term small rebound due to inventory reduction, but downstream conditions may limit the upside. Ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate weakly. [2] Logic - Negative feedback is emerging, downstream inventory pressure is increasing, and raw material inventory in downstream factories has accumulated significantly. The probability of normalizing ethane imports increases, reducing the possibility of some ethylene glycol import - raw - material device shutdowns. Port and factory inventory reduction is slow, and the obvious inventory reduction time for ethylene glycol will be postponed. [2] Strategy - Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] Market Conditions - The increase in polyester products is significantly lower than that of crude oil. After the crude oil price rebounded, the PX price increased slightly, and the PXN spread remained at around $170. The outer - market price rose to $752. PTA total inventory decreased slightly, port basis weakened slightly, but warehouse receipts decreased significantly. [27] - Due to the decrease in profit transfer influence, PTA supply decreased, and ethylene glycol production increased. PTA maintenance is frequent, and production remains low. Ethylene glycol production has increased due to potential stable oil - based supply and increased coal - based production. [33][37] - Terminal orders remain at a low level, with only Southeast Asian re - export orders being fair. Direct U.S. - related orders are almost stagnant, new orders are scarce, and terminal production has further declined. [40] - Downstream production remains at a high level. Although it has decreased month - on - month, it still reaches 93.6%. However, downstream profits are extremely low, inventory pressure is increasing, and the side - effects of high production are emerging. [47] - Downstream inventory continues to accumulate. After the easing of tariff concerns, there is some restocking intention, but the inventory reduction of FDY and DTY is limited, and inventory remains extremely high. [50] - Downstream profits continue to decline, and the sustainability of high - level production is questionable. The market has started to price in downstream inventory pressure, and polyester product prices will fluctuate at a low level. [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil: The supply - demand situation provides strong support, and oil prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term [3][44] - Asphalt: Short - term production scheduling has slightly increased, and the increase may be less than that of upstream products [3][44] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil Supply - OPEC+ increased production by 411,000 barrels in May, Venezuela's cooperative production decreased by 200,000 barrels per day in April, and Iran's transportation is still at risk of continued sanctions [43] Demand - It is the seasonal off - peak season for crude oil, but refined oil products have shown better - than - expected performance, and short - term demand is acceptable [43] Inventory - The inventory of refined oil products has decreased significantly, the crude oil inventory remains at a neutral level, and the overall inventory pressure is small [43] Profit - Refinery profits have rebounded, especially those in the US Gulf and Asia - Pacific regions [43] Spread - The monthly spread has rebounded significantly [43] Conclusion - In the short term, the risk resonance effect of the decline of overseas risk assets due to stagflation concerns has led to a drop in oil prices, and OPEC's production increase has worsened the situation. However, the supply - demand level is acceptable, and oil prices have stabilized [43] Operation - Short - term fluctuations are still large, and it is advisable to wait and see first [43] Asphalt Supply - Short - term production is not very high, but recent maintenance volume has decreased. Supply may decline slightly after the maintenance volume increases later [89] Demand - Downstream projects have not recovered substantially, and the overall procurement rhythm is still slow [89] Inventory - Manufacturer inventories remain stable, and social inventories have increased significantly [89] Profit - Oil prices have rebounded recently, but the increase in asphalt prices is limited, and profits have declined significantly [89] Spread - The monthly spread has weakened slightly [89] Conclusion - The historical decline in oil prices has driven down asphalt prices, and the current demand situation is still average. There is no obvious upward driving force for prices recently, but production scheduling may decrease later, and it will remain in a low - level shock in the short term [89] Operation - The absolute price follows oil prices, and short - term attention should be paid to the contraction of the monthly spread [89]

节前补库支撑，价格震荡为主 东海甲醇聚烯烃周度策略 东海期货研究所能化策略组 2025-4-28 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师： 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8618 邮箱：fengbf@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F3089928 投资咨询证号： Z0018740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyl@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 甲醇：意外检修支撑价格 | 国产供应 | 国内甲醇装置产能利用率85.06%，环比-2.60%；内蒙古新奥60装置恢复，久泰托县200、 内蒙古宝丰一期280、中石化长城60装置计划重启，下周甲醇产量预期增加。 | | --- | --- | | 进口 | 国际甲醇装置开工79.37%，环比上周增加0.1个百分点，同比去年也略高3个百分点。4月 18日至4月24日，总进口量在14.3万吨，下周期到港预计在18.95万吨。 | | 需求 | 国内煤（经甲醇）制烯烃行业开工略有增加，目前开工在79.45%，环比增加1.11个百分 点。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The economic growth in Q1 2025 was strong and higher than market expectations, with accelerating consumption growth, infrastructure investment, and high - speed manufacturing investment, and the net export far exceeding expectations due to the export - rush effect. The U.S. has been sending signals of trade relaxation with China, and the Politburo meeting indicated that new incremental policies would be introduced as needed, which strongly supported the domestic market risk preference and led to a continuous increase in overall domestic risk preference. The report suggests a cautious long - position strategy [3][32] Summaries by Directory 1. Stock Market Review - The CSI 300 index closed at 3786.99 points, up 0.39% from the previous value; the SSE 50 index closed at 2648.81 points, down 0.42%; the CSI 500 index closed at 5627.18 points, up 1.26%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 5939.50 points, up 1.71%. In terms of trading volume, the CSI 300 index had a cumulative trading volume of 1.0914 trillion yuan last week, with an average daily trading volume of 218.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.7 billion yuan from the previous value. The top five performing industries were comprehensive finance (6.07%), automobiles (4.94%), communications (3.16%), power equipment and new energy (3.07%), and comprehensive (2.77%); the bottom five were transportation (- 0.88%), coal (- 1.21%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 1.38%), food and beverage (- 2.40%), and consumer services (- 3.70%). The IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts closed at 3739.2 points (up 0.77%), 2628.0 points (down 0.21%), 5498.6 points (down 0.95%), and 5786.6 points (up 2.35%) respectively [5] 2. Capital Situation - The margin trading balance of the two markets was 1.7916 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.1 billion yuan from the previous week. The net capital purchases of the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 indexes last week were - 22.6 billion yuan, - 5.7 billion yuan, and - 17.5 billion yuan respectively [7] 3. Futures Index Review - The IF main contract closed at 3739.2 points, up 0.77% from the previous value, with a cumulative trading volume of 226,231 lots and an average daily trading volume of 45,246 lots, a decrease of 4713 lots from the previous value; the IH main contract closed at 2628.0 points, down 0.21%, with a cumulative trading volume of 117,628 lots and an average daily trading volume of 23,526 lots, a decrease of 3062 lots from the previous value; the IC main contract closed at 5498.6 points, down 0.95%, with a cumulative trading volume of 208,995 lots and an average daily trading volume of 41,799 lots, an increase of 2249 lots from the previous value; the IM main contract closed at 5786.6 points, up 2.35%, with a cumulative trading volume of 696,711 lots and an average daily trading volume of 139,342 lots, a decrease of 5275 lots from the previous value [15] 4. Position Capital Situation - The IF position amount was 65.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.4 billion yuan from the previous week; the IH position amount was 15.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.07 billion yuan; the IC position amount was 53.95 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.38 billion yuan; the IM position amount was 89.19 billion yuan, an increase of 0.08 billion yuan. The position amounts of IF for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter were 13.3 billion yuan, 36.68 billion yuan, 14.74 billion yuan, and 1.28 billion yuan respectively; those of IH were 3.52 billion yuan, 8.48 billion yuan, 3.25 billion yuan, and 0.27 billion yuan; those of IC were 13.8 billion yuan, 26.14 billion yuan, 11.7 billion yuan, and 2.3 billion yuan; those of IM were 18.96 billion yuan, 46.59 billion yuan, 19.39 billion yuan, and 4.25 billion yuan [21] 5. Spread Situation - In terms of basis, the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts were - 12.19 points, - 3.81 points, - 44.98 points, and - 54.50 points respectively; in terms of spreads, the spreads of IF contracts for next - month minus current - month, current - quarter minus next - quarter, and next - quarter minus current - quarter were - 35.60 points, - 57.60 points, and - 23.20 points respectively; those of IH contracts were - 17.00 points, - 32.20 points, and - 3.60 points; those of IC contracts were - 83.60 points, - 127.20 points, and - 92.60 points; those of IM contracts were - 98.40 points, - 161.80 points, and - 124.80 points. In terms of ratios, the ratios of IF to IH for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter were 1.4271, 1.4228, 1.4183, and 1.4113 respectively; those of IC to IH were 2.1105, 2.0923, 2.0693, and 2.0364; those of IM to IH were 2.2250, 2.2019, 2.1669, and 2.1217 [26] 6. Summary and Outlook - The CSI 300 index closed at 3786.99 points last week, up 0.39% from the previous value; the cumulative trading volume was 562.718 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume was 218.3 billion yuan, an increase of 14.7 billion yuan from the previous value. The margin trading balance of the two markets was 1.7916 trillion yuan. The top five performing industries were comprehensive finance (6.07%), automobiles (4.94%), communications (3.16%), power equipment and new energy (3.07%), and comprehensive (2.77%); the bottom five were transportation (- 0.88%), coal (- 1.21%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 1.38%), food and beverage (- 2.40%), and consumer services (- 3.70%). The main logic was that in Q1 2025, due to accelerating consumption growth, infrastructure investment, and high - speed manufacturing investment, and the net export far exceeding expectations due to the export - rush effect, the economic growth was strong and higher than market expectations. The U.S. sent signals of trade relaxation with China, and the Politburo meeting indicated that new incremental policies would be introduced as needed, which strongly supported the domestic market risk preference and led to a continuous increase in overall domestic risk preference. The operation suggestion was to be cautiously long [32]

关注关税进展，短期反弹 东海期货沪锡周度分析 有色及新能源策略组 2025-4-28 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 彭亚勇 分析师： 从业资格证号：F03142221 投资咨询证号：Z0021750 电话：021-80128600-8628 邮箱：pengyy@qy.qh168.com.cn 观点总结 | 政治局会议有一些新的表述，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适 宏观 度宽松的货币政策，加快专项债和特别国债等发行使用，但整体未超预期。关税方面，近期美国可能下 调对我国关税，但关税谈判将是一个漫长的过程。下周重点关注美国制造业PMI和非农数据。 | | --- | | 供应端，4月23日缅甸佤邦召开复产前座谈会，目前暂无进一步消息，但复产仍是大概率，云南江西两地 炼厂开工率下降至56.34%，依然处于低位，进口窗口小幅打开，3月锡锭进口量高位，预计4月进口量维 供应 | | 需求方面，关注AI概念、电子产品消费政策对实际需求带来的影响； 3月手机产计录得1.37亿台，同比增 需求 | | 长0.4%；计算机产量为3212万台， 同比上升7.8%；光电子器件产 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite is rising as U.S. Treasury yields decline. In China, the economy started well in Q1, and the government will adopt more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Overseas: The U.S. President plans to set "fair" tariff prices, and a trade agreement is expected to be reached in three to four weeks. Market expectations of a缓和 in the Sino - U.S. trade war and speculation about the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts have led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: The Q1 domestic economy was better than expected, and the industrial enterprise profits in March turned positive year - on - year. The Politburo meeting signaled more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. For assets, the stock index may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the treasury bond may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the black commodity may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; the non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the energy and chemical products may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the precious metals may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as precious metals, energy metals, and biomedicine. However, the good economic start in Q1 and the expected proactive macro - policies will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market was volatile last week. Gold reached a record high and then fell back. Uncertainty in tariff policies and the ambiguity of the Fed's interest - rate cut path have increased the volatility of precious metals. In the long - term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver may follow gold passively and be weaker than gold. Key economic data in the U.S. need to be monitored next week [3][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel rebounded on Friday, but the apparent consumption of five major steel products declined, and the demand may have peaked. Although there are rumors of crude steel reduction, the steel output is still rising, and the short - term steel market may fluctuate within a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined on Friday. The iron - water output is high, but there are rumors of crude steel reduction, and the supply of iron ore may increase in the second quarter. It is advisable to view the short - term iron ore market as a range - bound one and pay attention to the peak of iron - water output [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the supply is declining. The short - term prices of ferroalloys may fluctuate within a range [7][8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oil price will remain in a narrow - range shock in the short term. Although there is support from current demand and inventory reduction, the increase in supply may put pressure on the price if demand weakens later [9]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term driving factors come from the macro - environment and crude oil. The asphalt supply is at a low level, and the demand has been slightly boosted before May Day. It will continue to fluctuate with crude oil [9]. - **PX**: After the stabilization of crude oil prices, the PX price rebounded. It will maintain a tight - balance state and may test the pressure level, showing a volatile pattern [9]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up is high, but the terminal start - up is declining. The short - term price may rebound slightly but is limited by downstream conditions and will mainly fluctuate [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The obvious inventory - reduction time of ethylene glycol will be postponed, and it will maintain a weak - shock pattern [12]. - **Short - Fiber**: The demand is weak, and the short - fiber will maintain a weak - level shock [12]. - **Methanol**: The supply is less than expected, and the demand has led to inventory decline before the festival. The short - term price will repair in a shock, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. - **PP**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of PP is not prominent, but there may be a negative demand feedback in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the maintenance progress [12]. - **LLDPE**: The PE downstream is basically stable. It is expected to fluctuate weakly before the festival, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Politburo meeting proposed more proactive macro - policies, and the U.S. may lower tariffs on China. The supply of copper is at a high level, and the demand is in the peak season with declining inventory. The short - term market sentiment may be boosted, but the medium - term rebound height is limited [13]. - **Aluminum**: The production of electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the demand is strong with declining inventory. It is advisable to take partial profits on previous long positions [14]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term price may rebound, but the rebound height is limited due to macro risks and the news of production resumption in Wa State [14]. Agricultural Products - **U.S. Soybeans**: The net long positions of U.S. soybean funds are increasing. Weather conditions in the U.S. soybean - producing areas need to be monitored, and the price may be easy to rise and difficult to fall at the beginning of sowing [15]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot basis of domestic soybean meal has declined, and the short - term decline space of the 09 contract may be limited. It is advisable to reduce the short - position risk exposure [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil - mill start - up is low, and the soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly. The rapeseed oil is in the off - season with high inventory and weak basis [16][17]. - **Palm Oil**: If the U.S. biofuel policy is favorable, the palm oil demand is expected to be stable. The production of Malaysian palm oil is increasing, and the price may fluctuate within a range and be relatively strong [17]. - **Pigs**: The market is mainly trading seasonal trends. The spot price may be under pressure before May Day, and the futures may be dominated by risk - aversion sentiment and decline [17]. - **Corn**: Drought in Henan has led to a strong rebound in the corn price. The upper limit of the price range is restricted by weak demand and high inventory, while the lower limit is supported by low inventory in production areas, risk premium, and policy expectations. There is a possibility of the C05 contract declining to narrow the basis [18].