日度报告——综合晨报 美 4 月 ISM 服务业好于预期，智利 3 月铜产 量同比增加 9% [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-06 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国拒绝完全豁免对日本的"对等"关税 美国 4 月非农数据好于预期，新增就业维持在较高水平，表明劳 动力市场没有受到关税的负面影响，美元指数维持震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 中国 4 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49%，不及预期 综 4 月官方制造业 PMI 不及预期，贸易冲突对于经济基本面的影响 正在体现。基本面将会主导债券走势，预计国债以震荡偏强为 主。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 美国 4 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI 录得 51.6 报 国际金价昨日上涨超过 3%，收复了五一假期间的跌幅，市场再 度针对关税和地缘政治风险展开交易。特朗普表示要对海外制 作的美国电影加征关税再度施压市场风险偏好。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比下降 87.17 万吨 节前五大品种去库加速，受补库等因素带动，螺纹表需回升到 291 万吨以上，但市场对短期需求回升的关注度并不算高，需求 走弱预期依然导致钢价承压， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For zinc, maintain the main judgment of shorting on rallies in the medium - term. In May, demand may weaken more than supply, and low inventory is expected to gradually ease. Consider adding options for protection around May Day and look for short - selling opportunities after observing inventory changes [8][9][11]. - For lead, in May, the fundamentals may show a situation of weak supply and demand. Consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term, but be cautious when opening short positions due to limited price decline space [25][26]. - For nickel, wait for the low - buying opportunity of ni2507. Nickel iron has the logic of rebound and valuation repair, and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunity when the import loss is around 5000 [38][42]. - For polysilicon, pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of PS2506/PS2507 and the positive arbitrage opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507 and PS2507 - 2508 [54][55]. Summary by Directory 1. Zinc - **Previous Strategy Review**: The short - selling strategy on rallies for the main contract of Shanghai zinc has achieved about a 6% decline since April 1st. The previous inter - period positive arbitrage strategy had good returns but is facing short - term pressure [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy Recommendation**: Overseas zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 is expected to increase significantly. Domestic TC has room to rise in the first half of the year. In May, the zinc ingot output may decline slightly, and the impact on supply is not significant. Downstream demand is weak, and the inventory inflection point is expected to appear in mid - May [9][10][11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term. Inter - period arbitrage: Wait and see. Cross - market arbitrage: Pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [13]. - **Key Indicator Tracking**: LME zinc seasonal inventory, domestic seven - region zinc ingot inventory, smelter comprehensive income considering some by - products, and raw material inventory of three primary downstream industries [13][15][17][19]. 2. Lead - **Previous Strategy Review**: The short - selling strategy on rallies for lead in the quarterly report was affected by the macro - impact in April. The previous inter - period positive arbitrage strategy was profitable, but the short - term pressure is increasing [22]. - **Arbitrage Strategy Recommendation**: In May, the fundamentals may be weak in both supply and demand. The secondary smelter may recover after raw material replenishment, while domestic demand has peaked and exports are under pressure. Pay attention to the inflow of imported lead [23][24][25]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term. Inter - period arbitrage: Wait and see. Cross - market arbitrage: Pay attention to high - level internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [27]. - **Key Indicator Tracking**: Scrap battery price and Shanghai lead main contract, LME lead seasonal inventory, five - region lead ingot seasonal social inventory, and lead concentrate and refined lead import profit and loss [28][33][32][34]. 3. Nickel & Stainless Steel - **Previous Strategy Review**: After the equal - tariff was implemented in April, the nickel price was mainly guided by the macro - aspect. The previous internal - external positive arbitrage strategy was profitable [37]. - **Arbitrage Strategy Recommendation**: The nickel ore supply in Indonesia is tight, and the nickel iron price is expected to rebound. The NPI may be converted to high - grade matte, and the NPI supply will decrease. The demand for stainless steel and new energy is weak [38][39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral: Wait and see in the short - term and look for low - buying opportunities of ni2507. Inter - period arbitrage: Wait and see. Cross - market arbitrage: Pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities when the import loss is around 5000 [42]. - **Key Indicator Tracking**: Nickel internal - external Shanghai - London price ratio change, nickel theoretical import profit and loss change, SHFE nickel inventory change, and LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant change [43][47][45][48]. 4. Polysilicon - **Previous Strategy Review**: The previous PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage strategy performed well [50]. - **Arbitrage Strategy Recommendation**: In May, the domestic polysilicon production is expected to decline to 98,000 tons, and the silicon wafer production is expected to decline to 54GW. The polysilicon inventory will continue to decline by about 10,000 tons. The spot price is expected to be flat month - on - month. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507 and PS2507 - 2508 [51][52][54]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral: Pay attention to low - buying opportunities of PS2506/PS2507. Inter - period arbitrage: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - 2508 [55]. - **Key Indicator Tracking**: China's polysilicon weekly inventory, China's silicon wafer weekly inventory, China's battery cell export factory weekly inventory, and China's photovoltaic module inventory [57][59].

周度报告-玉米&玉米淀粉 期现共振上涨 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 玉米&玉米淀粉：看涨 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 5 | 日 | [Table_Analyser] | ★[Ta玉ble米_Summary] 一周复盘：玉米、小麦现货明显上涨，玉米 07 合约冲破 2350 压力 位。"若无规模化替代，7 月现实缺口将暴露"的预期或正逐步兑现， 随着 7 月节点的临近，支撑我们这一观点的现象也逐步出现。深加 工企业玉米虽然因亏损而消耗量缓慢下滑，但原料库存持续大幅下 降；中储粮虽然转向净轮出状态，但拍卖成交率和溢价双高，均表 明商业库存或逐步趋紧。 下周观点： 农 产 品 中期看，现实供需的转强预计将继续驱动价格上涨，07 合约全年的 高点有望达到 2450 元/吨左右，届时基差、月差也有望形成 back 结 构，主要是考虑到以下几点原因：1）生猪存栏与均重双高，预计能 量总需求同比回升幅度较好，淀粉恢复出口与副产品受豆粕拉动， 预计将延 ...

周度报告——新能源汽车 美国汽车关税政策受压回撤 ★ 动态跟踪 行业数据跟踪方面，据乘联会发布，4 月 1-27 日全国乘用车新能 源市场零售 72.8 万辆，同比增长 24%，新能源市场零售渗透率 52.3%，今年以来累计零售 314.8 万辆，同比增长 33%；4 月 1-27 日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发 84.6 万辆，同比增长 25%，新 能源厂商批发渗透率 53.9%，今年以来累计批发 369.5 万辆，同 比同期增长 38%。 新 能 源 与 新 材 料 企业端，多车企发布 4 月销量数据，比亚迪以 38 万辆的销量数 据继续稳居领先地位，吉利、零跑、小鹏等新能源销量数据抢眼。 海外市场方面，受美国汽车及零部件关税影响北美新车市场 3 月销量高增长，但关税争对汽车而非新能源汽车，因而渗透率未 出现明显变化（见图表 23-26）。压力下关税政策有所回撤，4 月 29 日发布两项行政命令，一是进口整车关税仅由 2025 年 3 月 26 日第 10908 号公告确定，不得适用其他关税（免除钢铁、铝 的单独关税，避免多项关税叠加）；二是为在美国本土生产的整 车企业提供税收抵免，部分抵消其进口零部件所面 ...

色 金 属 五一节前，盘面持续增仓下挫，主力合约跌破 6.6 万元关口、创 品种上市以来新低。基本面角度，当前交易的核心逻辑仍是在需 求难有超预期表现的前提下，持续试探资源端成本支撑的有效 性。中长期而言，下行期内企业着力降本增效或使得成本支撑进 一步下移，近期矿企披露的财报信息显示多座矿山一季度的运营 成本环比实现明显降幅也是对这一逻辑的印证。但短期须警惕交 易节奏：年后以来盘面持续下挫、矿盐价格倒挂维持一段时间后， 近期多家盐厂陆续计划检修减产；此外，近期 LC 盘面快速增仓 下挫，使得碳氢价差显著收窄至接近平水，后续需关注是否会有 盐厂考虑优先出品氢氧化锂。 整体而言，品种中长期过剩、成本支撑下移的主逻辑并未改变， 但交易维度需注意短期节奏：基本面角度需关注盐端减量是否持 续扩大，低价环境内亦需持续警惕资源端潜在扰动；盘面快速增 仓下挫后，预期差引发的空平或驱动盘面快速反弹。策略角度， 当前点位不建议继续追空，耐心等待反弹沽空机会。 周度报告—碳酸锂 、smingfTable_Title] 盘面增仓测试成本支撑， 节前锂价再创新低 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 碳酸锂：震荡 | | | | ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 基本面弱势，现货博弈加剧 [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 西北某大厂表示后期有减产意愿，但具体减产时间不确定。随 丰水期到来，四川在五一节之后部分硅厂有复工计划。需求端 仍无起色，有机硅大厂检修、多晶硅大厂延迟复产，对工业硅 需求减少。多晶硅厂家近期对工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9400- 9700 元/吨。后续关注供给端边际变化。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 硅料现货成交有限，预计大量成交将待五一之后。考虑龙头企 业西南基地复产推迟及部分企业有减产检修计划，我们下修 5 月多晶硅排产至 9.9 万吨左右，环比 4 月有所减少。根据 SMM，截至 4 月 30 日，中国多晶硅厂库存 26.1 万吨，环比 +0.2 万吨。下游原材料库存约 11 万吨，下降至 1 个月水平左 右，并在硅片厂中呈不均匀分布，部分企业无太多囤货有刚需 采购需求，部分企业硅料库存仍较为充足、策略仍以消化在手 库存为主。上下游博弈剧烈，买方基于需求转弱、下游价格下 跌，心理预期价格较低，而卖方考虑下游部分刚需采购、且从 上市公司披露的一季报情况看，即使是 Q1 价格也已致使头部 硅料企业亏损大量现金流，因此买 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "oscillation" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global stock markets continued to recover this week, with US stocks achieving a V-shaped reversal. The pricing duration of global risk assets is getting shorter, actively pricing in factors such as optimism about tariff negotiations, resilient non - farm employment data, and better - than - expected tech stock earnings reports. For A - shares, the market is supported by factors like the potential acceleration of Sino - US negotiations, clear technology industry trends, and capital support from the "national team". However, the performance of small - cap stocks is concerning. In Q1 2025, the profit growth rate of listed companies was 3.46%, slightly higher than expected, but the resilience was mainly in blue - chip stocks. The valuation levels of small - cap indices such as CSI 2000 and BeiZheng 50 have reached historical extremes, and the risk of potential return decline should be vigilant [2][11] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - **Next - week View**: Wait for the return of market liquidity. The performance of small - cap stocks is worrying, and attention should be paid to the risk of potential return decline due to high valuations [11] - **This - week Key Events**: - On April 28, the National Development and Reform Commission announced measures to stabilize employment and the economy, including supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, and expanding effective investment. It also planned to issue additional car purchase indicators for specific groups. The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade reported that nearly half of foreign - trade enterprises would reduce US business and 75.3% planned to expand emerging markets [11][13][14] - On April 29, the national leader emphasized that Shanghai should build a global - influence scientific and technological innovation high - ground. Three departments jointly issued a notice to clean up and rectify unreasonable regulations on market access barriers. China's service trade deficit in Q1 2025 decreased year - on - year [16][17][18] - On April 30, China's manufacturing PMI in April fell to 49. The foreign ministry stated that there was no Sino - US tariff negotiation. The national leader emphasized the importance of developing new - quality productivity in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [19][20][21] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview - **Global Stock Markets Weekly Overview**: From April 28 to May 2, global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 2.97%, with emerging markets (+3.30%) > developed markets (+2.93%) > frontier markets (-0.11%). The Taiwan stock index led the world with a 9.62% increase, while the Saudi stock market performed the worst with a 2.03% decline [23] - **Chinese Stock Markets Weekly Overview**: From April 28 to May 2, in the Chinese equity market, Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks > A - shares. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1.104 trillion yuan, a decrease of 42.8 billion yuan from last week. The A - share market showed a differentiated trend, with the BeiZheng 50 index rising 2.38% and large - cap blue - chip indices such as the Shanghai Composite 50 generally falling about 0.5% [26] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most global GICS primary industries rose this week. The information technology industry increased by 4.26%, while the energy industry increased by only 0.82%. In the Chinese market, the telecommunications service industry led with a 2.27% increase, and the real estate industry led the decline with a 3.03% decrease [30] - **Weekly Overview of China A - share CITIC Primary Industries**: Among China A - share CITIC primary industries this week, 9 industries rose (24 last week) and 21 industries fell (6 last week). The media industry led the rise with a 2.86% increase, and the comprehensive industry led the decline with a 3.48% decrease [31] - **Weekly Overview of China A - share Styles**: The small - cap growth style was dominant this week [36] - **Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis**: No specific data was provided in the text, only references to relevant charts [38][40] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - **Broad - based Index Valuation**: The valuation levels of some broad - based indices such as CSI 2000, KeChuang 50, and BeiZheng 50 have reached historical extremes [43] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: The valuation levels of different primary industries vary, with some industries such as defense and military industry having extremely high PE ratios [44] - **Broad - based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased slightly this week [45][50] - **Consensus Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - based Indices**: The expected earnings growth rates of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 in 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted [51] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased, the yield of the 1 - year treasury bond increased, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 100, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.21 [59] - **Trading - type Capital Tracking**: This week, the average daily trading volume of north - bound funds decreased by 200 million yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance decreased by 150 million yuan [63] - **Capital Inflow Tracking through ETFs**: This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 1.1 billion shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 200 million shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 400 million shares, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 3.7 billion shares [68][72] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - frequency Data - **Supply - side**: The tire operating rate declined [74] - **Consumption - side**: The number of second - hand housing listings decreased, and international oil prices slightly recovered [94] - **Inflation Observation**: Agricultural product prices stabilized and rebounded [95]

[★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好微升，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率降至 4.23%。美元指数涨 0.56%至 100，非美货币走势 分化，大宗商品和新兴市场汇率走强，离岸人民币涨 1.04%，欧 元跌 0.6%，英镑跌 0.32%，日元跌 0.9%，瑞郎涨 0.17%，韩元、 卢比、林吉特涨超 2%，澳元、加元、泰铢、兰特、雷亚尔收 涨。金价跌 2.4%至 3240 美元/盎司，VIX 指数回落至 24.8，现货 商品指数收涨，布油跌 0.9%至 67.5 美元/桶。 周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 非农好于预期，美元短期反弹 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 关税谈判进展继续扰动市场情绪，市场对中美进行谈判的预期 增加。特朗普承认关税对美国经济造成的拖累，短期内市场认 为关税可能边际缓和，提振了市场风险偏好。经济数据则显示 美国就业市场尚未完全体现关税带来的负面影响，4 月非农新增 就业 17.7 万人，好于预期和前值，失业率稳定在 4.2%，工资增 速环比 0.2%，同比 3.8%，低于预期，工资增速的放缓减轻了核 心通胀的上行压力，就业市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The pressure of weakening external demand is emerging, and the bond market is expected to strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The negative impact of trade frictions is starting to show, with the official manufacturing PMI in April falling short of expectations. Most economic indicators are expected to weaken in the first half of May, and the bullish logic for the bond market is certain. Although high - frequency indicators related to domestic demand perform well, their impact on the bond market is limited. The marginal easing of trade conflicts mainly affects market expectations and sentiment. Once negative news causes the bond market to fall, it presents a buying opportunity [2][14][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook - **This Week's Trend Review**: From April 21 - 27, treasury bond futures oscillated upwards. On Monday, with a relatively balanced capital market and a slight upward revision of broad - money expectations, treasury bond futures rose. On Tuesday, with a calm news environment and balanced capital, the market expected the April PMI to weaken, leading to a significant rise in treasury bond futures. On Wednesday, although the April manufacturing PMI was below expectations, treasury bond futures slightly corrected as the market had already priced in the news. By April 30, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.368, 106.100, 109.050, and 120.840 yuan respectively, up 0.058, 0.125, 0.245, and 1.020 yuan from the previous weekend [1][13] - **Next Week's Outlook**: The market is still a mix of bullish and bearish factors, but the bullish force is expected to prevail, and treasury bond futures may attempt to break upwards. Negative factors mainly affect market expectations and sentiment. Once negative news causes the bond market to fall, it is a good opportunity for bulls to increase positions. Most economic indicators are expected to weaken in the first half of May, and the bullish logic for the bond market is clear. If some indicators exceed market expectations, the bond market may fall temporarily, presenting a buying opportunity [14][15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds - **Primary Market**: This week, 32 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 1350.92 billion yuan and a net financing of 1346.97 billion yuan, a change of - 5406.91 billion yuan and + 2149.45 billion yuan from last week respectively. 29 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 930.92 billion yuan and a net financing of 926.97 billion yuan, a change of - 980.31 billion yuan and - 698.15 billion yuan from last week respectively. 168 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 2493.40 billion yuan and a net financing of - 859.70 billion yuan, a change of - 7184.40 billion yuan and - 2631.10 billion yuan from last week respectively [23] - **Secondary Market**: Most treasury bond yields declined. By April 30, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.45%, 1.51%, 1.63%, and 1.83% respectively, down 3.76, 3.99, 3.25, and 9.75 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread compressed by 4.17bp to 16.80bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread widened by 0.74bp to 12.19bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread compressed by 6.50bp to 19.96bp. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.57%, 1.57%, and 1.66% respectively, down 0.44, 3.75, and 3.56bp from the previous weekend [28][29] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest**: Treasury bond futures oscillated upwards. By April 30, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.368, 106.100, 109.050, and 120.840 yuan respectively, up 0.058, 0.125, 0.245, and 1.020 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 41761, 59303, 65919, and 83215 lots respectively, with changes of + 1358, + 7676, - 377, and - 20221 lots from the previous weekend. The open interests were 146910, 205789, 236575, and 133653 lots respectively, with changes of + 3958, + 2418, + 13819, and + 4959 lots from the previous weekend [38][41] - **Basis and IRR**: A positive - carry strategy for short - term varieties is recommended. The IRR of short - term varieties has been running at a relatively high level. After the capital market gradually loosens at the end of Q1, the cost - effectiveness of the positive - carry strategy becomes more prominent [45] - **Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads**: By April 30, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2506 - 2509 were - 0.264, - 0.300, - 0.145, and - 0.270 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.010, - 0.010, + 0.020, and 0.000 yuan from the previous weekend. The futures roll - over rhythm is fast, and the open interest of the 06 contract significantly exceeds the seasonal level of previous contracts. The roll - over pressure is high, and the spread of TS2506 - 09 is expected to continue to decline [48] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - The central bank conducted 11503 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, with 5045 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6458 billion yuan. By April 30, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.84%, 1.80%, 1.76%, and 1.76% respectively, up 18.09, 16.28, 19.30, and 12.40 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 5.46 trillion yuan, 196.1 billion yuan less than last week, and the overnight proportion was 78.44%, lower than the previous week's level [53][55][57] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds rose slightly. By May 2, the US dollar index rose 0.46% to 100.0424 from the previous weekend. The yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.33%, up 4 basis points from the previous weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 254 basis points. There are signs of easing in trade conflicts, and both the US dollar and the RMB exchange rates strengthened slightly. The better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data in April led the market to lower its expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts, causing the US treasury bond yields to rise slightly [61][62] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices fell across the board. By April 30, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3478.21, 6106.89, and 1621.01 points respectively, down 61.07, 41.83, and 35.59 points from the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices also fell. By April 30, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.59, 4.39, and 7.59 yuan/kg respectively, down 0.19, 0.19, and 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [65] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Adopt a bullish approach towards the bond market, focus on the strategy of buying on dips. Consider the positive - carry opportunities of short - term varieties. Wait for the right - hand signal for the curve - steepening strategy. Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread of TS06 - 09 [2]

热点报告——外汇期货 美国一季度 GDP 增速转负， 关税加大经济波动 | 走势评级： | 美元：震荡 | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 5 月 1 日 | ★美国一季度 GDP 增速转负，关税加大经济波动： 外 汇 美国一季度 GDP 年化季环比初值录得-0.3%，低于市场预期的 0.3%，较上季度的 2.4%大幅回落，为 2022 年一季度以来首次转负。 其中净出口拖累经济增速 4.83%，其中进口分项拖累 5.03%。个人 消费支出增速 1.8%，政府支出增速-1.4%，私人投资增速高达 21.9%，进口增速 41.3%。一季度核心 PCE 物价指数则由 2.6%大幅 反弹至 3.5%，高于市场预期。数据公布后，美元指数震荡回升， 美债收益率小幅上行，黄金冲高回落，美股低开高走。从对 GDP 增速的贡献度来看，消费、固定投资、库存、净出口和政府支出 分别对-0.3%的 GDP 拉动 1.21%、1.34%、2.25%、-4.83%和-0.25%。 货 总体而言，关税冲击加大经济波动，企业抢先囤货导致进口分项 激增拖累经济增速，转化为库存投资和设备投资，随着关税政策 的实施 ...