1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for Treasury bonds is "oscillation" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contradiction in the bond market is between weak fundamentals and strong risk appetite. Fundamentals are favorable for the bond market, but economic data can no longer drive the bond market to strengthen. The stock market has an obvious impact on the bond market, but it is difficult to predict overseas factors and short - term stock market trends. Overall, the bond market is expected to oscillate. The news of the new fund fee regulations may disrupt the market, but it is unlikely to become the main trading theme [2][14][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From November 3rd to 9th, Treasury bond futures changed from rising to falling. On Monday, the stock market recovered, and Treasury bond futures were weakly oscillating. On Tuesday, the stock market fell, and the bond market was waiting for the central bank's bond - buying news. On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened higher due to the central bank's bond - buying news and lower overseas risk appetite but weakened as the domestic equity market rose. On Thursday, with a calm news background, the stock index was strong, and Treasury bond futures fell. On Friday, the morning session was strong, but the bond market weakened in the afternoon due to concerns about the new fund fee regulations. As of November 7th, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year Treasury bond futures contracts were 102.472, 105.920, 108.475, and 116.030 yuan respectively, down 0.072, 0.145, 0.190, and 0.610 yuan from the previous weekend [1][11] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - Next week, the bond market will still face the contradiction between weak fundamentals and strong risk appetite. Fundamentals are expected to be weak as the economic indicators in October may be poor due to limited growth - stabilizing policies in September - October and the intensifying Sino - US trade war. The impact of the equity market on the bond market is significant, but it is difficult to predict short - term stock market trends because of the domestic policy window period and the complexity of overseas factors. The news of the new fund fee regulations may disrupt the market, but it is unlikely to be the main trading theme. Overall, the bond market is expected to oscillate [14][15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 57 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 5139.97 billion yuan and a net financing of 2883.44 billion yuan. 32 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 916.07 billion yuan and a net financing of - 359.56 billion yuan. 430 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 5278.60 billion yuan and a net financing of 1509.90 billion yuan [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. As of November 7th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.43%, 1.59%, 1.81%, and 2.16% respectively, up 3.04, 2.38, 1.91, and 1.35 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread widened by 0.05bp to 41.35bp, while the 10Y - 5Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed by 0.47bp and 0.56bp respectively [25] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures changed from rising to falling. As of November 7th, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year Treasury bond futures contracts were 102.472, 105.920, 108.475, and 116.030 yuan respectively, down 0.072, 0.145, 0.190, and 0.610 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures this week were 26156, 53541, 72555, and 114770 lots respectively, down 15303, 18919, 11637, and 20960 lots from last week. The open interests were 83061, 177685, 289869, and 180046 lots respectively, with changes of + 2363, + 7744, + 12390, and - 3495 lots from last week [34][39] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - In the first half of the week, the market sentiment was strong, and the IRR of Treasury bond futures was relatively high. In the second half, the market adjusted. For stable returns, investors can choose contracts with high IRR for positive arbitrage strategies [42] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of November 7th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts (2512 - 2603) were + 0.044, + 0.040, + 0.250, and + 0.240 yuan respectively, down 0.002, 0.035, 0.010, and 0.050 yuan from the previous weekend. Next week, the bond market is expected to oscillate, and the short - sellers' motivation to roll over positions will increase, but it is not enough to significantly widen the inter - delivery spreads [46] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 15722 billion yuan this week. As of November 7th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.47%, 1.41%, 1.33%, and 1.42% respectively, with changes of - 2.46, - 4.21, + 0.60, and - 1.70 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.97 trillion yuan, 1.27 trillion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 89.59%, higher than last week [50][53][55] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield oscillated narrowly. As of November 7th, the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.5477 from the previous weekend, the 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.11%, the same as last week, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y Treasury bonds was inverted by 229.7 basis points. The US government is still shut down, and the Fed officials are cautious about inflation due to low data visibility [59] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices fell across the board, and agricultural product prices generally rose. As of November 7th, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3531.08, 6399.37, and 1584.31 points respectively, down 25.59, 86.53, and 6.51 points from the previous weekend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 18.23, 5.78, and 7.04 yuan/kg respectively, up 0.43, 0.09, and 0.00 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [62] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - For the short - term oscillating bond market, it is recommended to observe more and trade less. For the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to positive arbitrage and widening the basis due to the relatively high IRR of some contracts. For the yield curve strategy, if worried about the stock market's strength, stay on the sidelines. For the inter - delivery strategy, although the short - sellers' motivation to roll over positions will increase, the inter - delivery spreads are unlikely to widen significantly [2][17][18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term, be cautious about the decline risk, not yet stabilized [14] - US Dollar: Short - term, expected to fluctuate [18] - Stock Index Futures: For each index, make a balanced long - position allocation [20] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term, high - level shock adjustment, but with a bullish bias due to profit support [24] - Treasury Bond Futures: The driving force for the bond market to strengthen is weak, it is recommended to observe more and act less [27] - Soybean Meal: Consider it as a wide - range shock, pay attention to the quantity and form of China's purchase of US soybeans and South American weather [30] - Cotton: Short - term, expected to fluctuate between 13200 - 13800; long - term, cautiously optimistic, wait for a callback to go long [34] - Edible Oils: The bottom of palm oil prices may have emerged, pay attention to the MPOB report and high - frequency production and demand data in November [36] - Coking Coal/Coke: Short - term, may continue to fluctuate, pay attention to the risk of falling hot metal production [38] - Live Pigs: After a significant rebound, short the 03 contract, and continuously pay attention to the long - position opportunity in the far - month contract [41] - Corn Starch: For the spot rice - flour price difference, the fundamentals are bearish in the medium - long term, but the market has over - reacted. It is recommended to conduct band trading [43] - Steam Coal: By early November, the price of 5500K coal at the port is close to 790 yuan, and it is expected to stabilize above 800 yuan in November [45] - Iron Ore: The price shows a weak shock, with limited reduction in hot metal production [46] - Corn: The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and rebound in the medium - long term; do not be overly optimistic about the far - month contract [48] - Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil: In the short - term, consider the steel price as a weak shock [51] - Red Dates: During the harvest period, the game between futures and spot prices is intense. It is recommended to observe cautiously and focus on the price game and purchase progress in the production area [54] - Polysilicon: In November, it enters the critical point of policy and fundamental game. If the futures price pulls back to par or discount to the spot price, consider going long at low prices [57] - Industrial Silicon: It is more cost - effective to go long at low prices [59] - Lead: In the short - term, be cautious when shorting; in the arbitrage aspect, there is a positive - spread arbitrage opportunity; be cautious in the internal - external market trading [61] - Zinc: In the short - term, wait and see, observe the right - side short - selling opportunity; in the arbitrage aspect, observe the positive - spread arbitrage opportunity; wait and see in the internal - external market trading [67] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to the medium - term short - selling opportunity at high prices [72] - Nickel: After the market risk is released, unilaterally bet on the return of valuation [74] - Carbon Emissions: Short - term, expected to fluctuate [76] - Methanol: Hold short positions, wait for the price to rebound and the market to return to the pattern of increasing short positions and falling prices, then add short positions, with a profit - taking target around 2100 yuan/ton [78] - Styrene: Wait and see until the concern about inventory over - filling is resolved [80] - PVC: It may maintain a low - level shock pattern [82] - Pulp: The risk of the futures price continuing to rise has increased significantly [83] - Soda Ash: In the short - term, pay attention to coal price fluctuations and new capacity release; in the medium - term, take a bearish view [85] - Float Glass: In the short - term, the market game is intense, it is recommended to wait and see [87] - Container Freight Index: Short - term, the futures price may fall back. Close short positions for profit, and appropriately pay attention to the long - position opportunity after the callback [89] 2. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as Fed officials' statements, government shutdowns, and supply - demand relationships in various industries. The risk preference of the market has changed, and different investment opportunities and risks exist in different sectors [13][17][23] - In the commodity market, the supply and demand of different products vary. For example, the supply of some products is tight, while the demand of others is weak, which leads to different price trends and investment suggestions [34][38][40] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Geological Survey included copper, silver, and potash in the 2025 key mineral list. Fed official Hamrick believes that the current economic situation requires maintaining a tight monetary policy to control inflation. Most Fed officials are cautious about further interest rate cuts due to inflation risks and data shortages caused by the government shutdown. The gold price is in a short - term correction phase [12][13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple Fed officials oppose further interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns, which causes the market risk preference to decline and the US dollar to fluctuate [17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by nearly 1% and returned to 4000 points, with a significant increase in trading volume. The three major indexes rose unilaterally, and the computing power hardware industry chain and the electric power grid theme were active. In the absence of more incremental negative factors, the stock index fluctuates at a high level, and the ChiNext Index performs the most prominently [19][20] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of layoffs by US Challenger companies in October increased significantly year - on - year, which triggered market concerns about recession. The US stock market continued to adjust significantly. However, short - term data fluctuates greatly, and more non - farm data are needed for judgment after the government reopens. The short - term market is expected to adjust with high - level shocks, but a bullish bias can be maintained due to profit support [23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 928 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 2498 billion yuan on that day. Affected by the strong performance of the equity market, the bond market sentiment reversed rapidly. The driving force for the bond market to strengthen weakened, and there was a risk of decline at some times. It is recommended to pay attention to positive - spread arbitrage strategies [25][26] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in October increased significantly year - on - year, and the sowing of new - season soybeans in Argentina started well. China still imposes a 13% tariff on imported US soybeans, and the future supply in the domestic market depends on the state reserve release. The cost of imported soybeans in China has increased, and the spot price of soybean meal has decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to the US monthly supply - demand report and South American weather [28][29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The cotton harvest in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the focus of ginning factories has shifted to cotton processing and sales. The spot market mainly uses the "fixed - price" sales method. The procurement of raw materials by textile enterprises is still cautious. The increase in new cotton warehouse receipts suppresses the upside space of the futures price in the short - term [31][34] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Edible Oils - Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The price of palm oil rose due to increased demand from India and Pakistan. However, factors such as high production expectations, a decline in Malaysian exports in early November, and a strong ringgit may limit price increases. The spot price of palm oil is expected to have bottomed out, and attention should be paid to relevant reports and data [35][36] 3.2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the central - southern China market is running strongly. The overall supply is stable, and the downstream procurement is active. After the third round of price increases for coke was implemented, the profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the upside space for raw coal prices was limited. In the short - term, the spot market remains tight, but the peak of hot metal production has passed, and it may continue to fluctuate [37][38] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - The sales revenue of live pigs of listed companies such as Wenshi and Muyuan decreased year - on - year in October. The futures price showed a bottom - rebound trend in the short - term, but the medium - term supply is expected to be more abundant, and it is recommended to short the 03 contract after a significant rebound and pay attention to the long - position opportunity in the far - month contract [39][40] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn and corn starch by starch sugar products increased week - on - week. The downstream demand is good, and the substitution effect of cassava starch on corn starch has a certain marginal positive impact. The fundamentals are bearish for the spot rice - flour price difference in the medium - long term, but the market has over - reacted, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [42][43] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market continued to be strong on November 6. Due to factors such as railway freight adjustment, the arrival cost at the port increased, and the inventory was lower than the same period last year. The early arrival of cold air in winter increased the expectation of price increases. It is expected that the port coal price will be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term [44][45] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The production and sales of IOC's iron ore decreased quarter - on - quarter in the third quarter. The iron ore price is in a weak shock. Although the support from coking coal, coke, and steel plates limits the decline, the supply - demand contradiction increases seasonally, and there is no upward momentum [44][46] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of the imported corn (targeted) auction increased. The spot price of corn is stable, and the futures price is strong. The demand for high - quality Northeast corn in the sales area is strong. The rumored wheat auction may relieve the short - term shortage of corn in North China. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and rebound in the medium - long term, and do not be overly optimistic about the far - month contract [47][48] 3.2.10 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The average monthly working hours and the start - up rate of construction machinery decreased year - on - year in October. The inventory of the five major steel products decreased week - on - week, but the de - stocking slowed down, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased again. The demand is still weak, and the steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [49][50] 3.2.11 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market is weakly stable. The harvest of red dates in Xinjiang has started, but the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is low. The spot price in the distribution area has decreased, and the profit margin of old red dates has declined. It is recommended to observe cautiously during the harvest period [52][53] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Sichuan launched the No. 136 bidding plan. The price of polysilicon is expected to decline in November due to the dry season. The inventory of upstream silicon material factories has increased, and the demand at the terminal has weakened. If the futures price pulls back to par or discount to the spot price, consider going long at low prices [55][57] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A solar cell technology - upgrading project in Jiangsu was publicly announced. The production of industrial silicon in the south is expected to decrease in November, and the inventory is difficult to reduce. The downstream maintains rigid procurement. It is more cost - effective to go long at low prices [58][59] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of $30.22 per ton on November 5. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic SHFE lead price was blocked in its upward trend. The supply of lead is gradually recovering, but the risk of delivery in the medium - term cannot be ignored. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting and pay attention to positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [60][61] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc production of some overseas mining companies decreased in the third quarter. The Shanghai zinc price oscillated at a high level, supported by the macro - environment. The negotiation of long - term contracts is not going smoothly, the refinery's profit is under pressure, and the production is expected to decline in November and December. The domestic social inventory is high, and the export volume is small. The zinc price may maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [62][66] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Jiangxi Province announced the evaluation report of the mining right transfer income of the Jianxiawo lithium mine. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken at the end of this year and the beginning of next year. It is recommended to pay attention to the medium - term short - selling opportunity at high prices [68][72] 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia stopped approving certain nickel ore processing projects. The impact of this news is small. The nickel ore price in Indonesia is expected to be strong in the fourth quarter, and the supply of Philippine nickel ore is tight. The downstream demand for nickel is weak, and the nickel iron price is under pressure. After the market risk is released, unilaterally bet on the return of valuation [73][74] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA on November 6 was 54.86 yuan/ton, up 3.78% from the previous day. The trading volume increased slightly, and the price rebounded. The carbon price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the rigid demand during the compliance peak period [75] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - China's methanol production and capacity utilization increased this week, while the capacity utilization of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased slightly. The supply - demand balance in the port area is still not optimistic. It is recommended to hold short positions and wait for the price to rebound and then add short positions [77][78] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's styrene production increased this week, mainly due to the restart of some plants and the new production capacity. The styrene price is expected to face the risk of inventory accumulation in December. It is recommended to wait and see until the concern about inventory over - filling is resolved [79][80] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market decreased. The futures price first declined and then rebounded. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is general. The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The high - inventory situation will continue in the fourth quarter, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [81][82] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market showed a strengthening trend. The futures price of pulp continued to rise. The risk of the futures price continuing to rise has increased significantly due to the possibility of registering warehouse receipts [83] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased on November 6 compared with Monday. The futures price of soda ash strengthened due to cost increases. The supply of soda ash increased slightly, and the downstream demand remained stable. In the short - term, pay attention to coal price fluctuations and new capacity release; in the medium - term, take a bearish view [84][85] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers decreased this week, mainly due to the news of production line shutdowns in the Shahe area. However, the inventory of middlemen and futures - cash traders has reached a new high, and the de - stocking pressure is large. As the weather turns cold, the demand in the north will enter the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see due to the intense market game [86][87] 3.2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight) - Maersk's third - quarter performance was strong, but its revenue decreased year - on - year. The European

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term price in a callback trend [16] - US Dollar: Short - term oscillation [20] - Chinese Stock Index Futures: Long - position balanced allocation for each index [23] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term high - level shock adjustment, with a bullish view considering profit support [27] - Treasury Bond Futures: Recently, the bond market is slightly bullish with limited upside, and long - positions should consider rhythm and odds [29] - Sugar: Chinese sugar market to oscillate, strict control on syrup and powder imports and reduced Q4 imports [34] - Steel: Adopt an oscillating approach to steel prices [41] - Live Pigs: Short - sell 03 contract after a sharp rebound, and keep an eye on long - positions in far - month contracts [44] - Red Dates: Wait and see, focus on price negotiation and acquisition progress in production areas [47] - Oils: If no major negative news, consider long - positions; wait for market sentiment to stabilize if negative [48] - Corn Starch: Band - trading [51] - Corn: 01 contract to oscillate weakly in the short - term and rebound in the long - term; be cautious about far - month contracts [53] - Thermal Coal: Price to remain strong in the short - term, watch policy changes after breaking through $800 [55] - Iron Ore: Downside space limited, consider negotiation and coking coal valuation [56] - Coking Coal/Coke: Short - term oscillation, watch for risks from declining hot metal production [57] - Copper: Oscillation, consider buying on dips [60] - Polysilicon: If the contract price corrects to par or discount to spot, consider long - positions; beware of options risks this weekend [63] - Industrial Silicon: Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [65] - Lead: Short - term strength, be cautious about chasing long; positive spread arbitrage available; be cautious in external trading [69] - Zinc: Speculative long - positions take profit on rallies; observe positive spread arbitrage opportunities; wait and see for external trading [74] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term wide - range oscillation; consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [79] - Nickel: Wait and see for speculative single - side trading; bet on valuation recovery after risk release [81] - Crude Oil: Price to oscillate [85] - Asphalt: Short - term weak oscillation [87] - Methanol: Holders of short - positions add short after the rebound ends; conservative investors take profit [89] - Pulp: Limited upside space [90] - Urea: Oscillation due to sentiment support [92] - Caustic Soda: Short - term weak oscillation [94] - Soda Ash: Downside space depends on coal price and new capacity; bearish in the medium - term [95] - Float Glass: Wait and see due to intense market game [97] - Container Freight Rates: Short - sell after the rally [99] 2. Core Views of the Report - The US ADP employment data in October exceeded expectations, indicating a short - term recovery in the labor market, but the economic downward pressure persists, and the US dollar maintains an oscillating trend [2][19] - In the context of a global stock market correction, the A - share market showed unexpected resilience, and the stock index is expected to oscillate at a high level [3][22] - The prices of steel, copper, and other commodities are affected by factors such as macro - expectations, fundamentals, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends [5][6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4, both better than expected [14][15] - Gold prices rebounded slightly, and the market is waiting for the end of the US government shutdown. Gold is expected to consolidate and approach the 60 - day moving average [15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump blamed the government shutdown for the Democratic victory in local elections [17] - The US Supreme Court questioned the legality of Trump's tariff policy [18] - The ADP employment data exceeded expectations, but the economic downward pressure continues, and the US dollar maintains an oscillating trend [19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China will firmly promote high - level opening - up [21] - The A - share market showed resilience, and the stock index is expected to oscillate at a high level [22] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, and the ISM services PMI reached a new high [25][26] - The US economic data remained resilient, and the stock market's risk appetite recovered [26] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 65.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan [28] - The bond market's upward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate. Long - positions should consider rhythm and odds [29] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's 2025/26 sugar production season has started, and Brazil's sugar production estimate has been raised [30][31] - The expected high - yield of the two major producers has increased concerns about global supply surplus, which is negative for the market [34] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The retail sales of passenger cars in October increased year - on - year and month - on - month [35] - Steel prices continued to be weak, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in November - December [40] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - The project of Wens Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary passed the environmental assessment, and Dabeinong signed a regulatory agreement [42][43] - The short - term spot market is bullish, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [43] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The acquisition of red dates in Xinjiang is progressing, and the futures price declined [45][46] - The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [47] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 12.31% month - on - month [48] - The market expects inventory accumulation in October. Pay attention to actual data and November's high - frequency supply - demand data [48] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The开机率 of corn starch enterprises increased, and the inventory slightly rose [49][51] - The inventory pressure is expected to be acceptable in January, and enterprises may maintain profitability [51] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of corn is generally stable, with some regional differences [51] - Substitute supply is expected to increase, and the 01 contract may oscillate weakly in the short - term and rebound in the long - term [52][53] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The international thermal coal price was strong on November 5, and the domestic price has risen recently [54][55] - The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and watch policy changes after breaking through $800 [55] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The demand for concrete weakened slightly, and iron ore prices oscillated weakly [56] - The downside space is limited, considering negotiation and coking coal valuation [56] 3.2.10 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in Linfen Anze was strong [57] - The short - term market is tight, but the hot metal production has peaked, and it may oscillate [57] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chile's Codelco's copper production in the first nine months increased by 2.1% year - on - year [58] - The short - term macro - expectations are volatile, and copper prices are expected to oscillate [60] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The number of photovoltaic component project bids decreased last week, and the price of polysilicon was under pressure [61][62] - November is a critical point of policy and fundamental game. Consider long - positions on dips if the contract price corrects [63] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan decreased, and the inventory is expected to be difficult to reduce in November [64] - Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [65] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory decreased, and the domestic lead price trended upward [69] - The short - term supply is slowly recovering, and pay attention to delivery risks; consider short - selling at high levels in the long - term [69] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc showed a premium, and the domestic zinc production is expected to decline in November - December [73] - Zinc prices may oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and need demand improvement for further rise [73] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Hainan Mining's lithium concentrate has been shipped, and EVE Energy signed a cooperation agreement [75][76] - The short - term price may oscillate widely, and consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [79] 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Minmetals' acquisition of a nickel business entered the second - stage review [80] - The short - term price may be under pressure, and bet on valuation recovery after risk release [81] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Kazakhstan's oil field production decreased due to maintenance, and the EIA crude oil inventory increased [82][84] - Oil prices are expected to oscillate [85] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt decreased [86] - The asphalt price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [87] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The Chinese methanol port inventory increased slightly [88] - The rebound does not indicate a fundamental reversal. Holders of short - positions add short after the rebound ends [89] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp price was stable, and the futures price rose [90] - The upward space of the pulp price is limited [90] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory increased, and the price oscillated upward due to export quota rumors [91] - The urea price may oscillate due to sentiment support [92] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda price in Shandong decreased locally, and the inventory decreased [93][94] - The caustic soda price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [94] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price in Shahe oscillated, and the demand may be affected in the short - term [95] - The soda ash price may decline in the medium - term, and the short - term downside space depends on coal price and new capacity [95] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in Shahe increased slightly, and the market game is intense [96][97] - It is recommended to wait and see due to intense market game [97] 3.2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Shipping companies adjusted European - route freight rates [98] - The container freight rate may rise in the short - term, and consider short - selling after the rally [99]

调研报告——焦煤/焦炭 山西焦煤生产情况调研报告 | 走势评级: | | --- | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 焦煤/焦炭：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 04 日 [Table_Summary] ★煤矿开工维持低位 调研了解，当下煤矿生产重心已由以量换价转为以安全定量生产， 下半年整体开工率较上半年明显回落，当前煤矿开工率处于全年 中等偏低水平，且低于国庆节前水平。虽政策端无量化减产目标， 但部分煤矿现在主动降低负荷，尤其上半年产量较高企业下降明 显。至春节前，煤矿在基本完成年度生产任务后，将以安全生产 为主，适度控制生产节奏，预计煤矿开工将延续低位运行。 同时了解到，由于蒙古国内政治局势变化蒙煤阶段性通关降低； 且蒙 5 占比下降，由前期的 40%左右将至 20%左右，因此主焦煤 结构性偏紧，部分之前采购蒙煤的下游转至山西市场采购，使得 山西高低硫主焦煤价格结构性上涨。 目前煤矿整体开工率处于全年中等偏低水平，且低于国庆节前水 平，国庆后下游补库叠加供应下降使得煤矿库存下降明显，但同 时下游库存有所升高，若后期铁水产量出现回落，下游进一步补 库的动能或将减弱。综上，焦煤目前基本面偏紧 ...

数据点评 重点集装箱港口及关键枢纽监测20251104 东证衍生品研究院 黑色与航运部 兰淅 从业资格号：F03086543 投资咨询号：Z0016590 • 亚洲港口： 洋山港、外高桥远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间分别为4.8小时/25.50小时、0小时/21.3小时，最新在锚/在泊集装箱 船数量达到2艘/8艘、12艘/24艘；宁波港远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间为9.6小时/24.2小时，最新在锚/在泊集装箱船数量为7 艘/21艘。青岛远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间为10.0小时/27.9小时；新加坡港远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间为1.0小 时/31.0小时，最新在锚/在泊集装箱船数量为6艘/48艘，巴生港周均等泊时间/在泊时间为8.7小时/26.4小时，最新在锚/在泊集装箱船数 量为7艘/27艘。洋山平均周转时长约0.9天、宁波港约1.6天、盐田港约1.0天。中国港口拥堵情况持续改善，上周周转时长回落至近年低 点。东南亚地区港口运营波动较大，拥堵存在反复的情况。新加坡港船舶平均在港时间为1.3天，巴生港为1.5天。 • 欧洲港口： 鹿特丹、安特卫普、汉堡港、不来梅，远洋型集装箱 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The US manufacturing sector has been in decline for eight consecutive months, with the manufacturing PMI at 48.7, indicating continued weakness in the real - economy and putting pressure on the US economy, which may require a loose monetary policy. The dollar index is expected to remain volatile [3][19][21]. - Gold prices are oscillating around $4000. With the implementation of domestic tax policies, the purchase cost of jewelry and gold bars has increased. Multiple Fed officials' statements suggest that a December rate cut is not the baseline scenario, and short - term gold prices lack direct positive factors and are in a correction trend [2][15]. - The stock market showed a small - volume increase. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points. The market is expected to continue to oscillate around 4000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index [23][24]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the supply - demand situation of agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals varies, and investment suggestions are provided accordingly [4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate policies. Gold prices are oscillating around $4000, and short - term gold prices face a risk of decline [13][15][16]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US government shutdown is approaching the longest record in history, and Peru has severed diplomatic relations with Mexico. The US manufacturing activity has been in decline for eight consecutive months, and the dollar index is expected to remain volatile [17][19][22]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market had a small - volume increase. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points. The Ministry of Finance has established a new Debt Management Department. The market is expected to continue to oscillate around 4000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index, and it is recommended to allocate long positions in stock indices evenly [23][24][25]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI has been in decline for eight consecutive months. Fed officials have different stances on a December rate cut. The US economy is in a downward trend, and the technology sector is strong, supporting the index to oscillate at a high level. Short - term, the market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and a bullish approach is recommended [26][28][29]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's October S&P manufacturing PMI was 50.6, showing a slowdown in the expansion. The central bank conducted a 783 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse - repurchase operation. The bond market is expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish trend, but the upward space is limited [30][31][32]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean sowing progress is behind schedule. The domestic soybean - meal inventory is sufficient, and the possibility of a supply gap in China is greatly reduced with the increase in US soybean imports. It is not recommended to blindly go long on soybean meal, and future attention should be paid to the actual situation of US soybean imports and the weather in Brazilian production areas [4][33][35]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Indian sugar mills are applying for opening, and the new sugar in Yunnan has a listed price. The market has optimistic expectations for the new - season sugar production in India and Thailand. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate in the short term, and a long position in the 1 - 5 contract spread can be held [36][38][39]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Red dates in Xinjiang are starting to be harvested. The futures price of the main contract has a small increase. The new - season red - date production is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see [40][41]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Shijiazhuang has issued a heavy - pollution weather orange warning and launched a level - II emergency response. Steel prices are oscillating weakly, and it is recommended to adopt an oscillating approach [42][44][45]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Canadian prime minister said that China would not immediately cancel tariffs on Canadian goods. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia has reached a two - year high. The oil market showed a differentiated trend, and corresponding investment suggestions are provided for rapeseed oil and palm oil [46][47][48]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in northern ports is stable. The coal price is expected to be stable and slightly bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to winter weather changes and November long - term contract policies [49]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The profit of domestic importers of cassava starch has increased. It is recommended to conduct band trading [50]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - An Australian iron - ore project has made new progress. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to maintain a weakly oscillating approach [51][52]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices are rising. It is recommended to go short lightly at high prices and pay attention to wheat auction policies [53][54]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The supply surplus of alumina has narrowed. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the domestic lead - ingot social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. Short - term, lead prices may remain strong, but chasing long positions requires caution [58]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A zinc - mining project has started construction. The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and corresponding investment strategies are provided [60][61]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Global investors are calling for the establishment of an international mineral institution. Chile's copper production has rebounded. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices [62][63][65]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium - carbonate project in Hunan has started, and the output of an Argentine lithium project has tripled. Lithium - carbonate prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices in the medium term [66][68][69]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A nickel - producing company's output has increased. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range, and corresponding investment suggestions are provided [70][71][73]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Brazil's oil production has increased. Oil prices lack the power to rebound in the short term [74][75]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt inventories in factories and social warehouses have decreased. Asphalt prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The spot price of methanol in Taicang has dropped significantly. It is recommended to hold short positions and add short positions on rebounds [78][79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has fluctuated. The supply of caustic soda is relatively loose in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether supply will decrease due to profit compression [80][81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased. The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of reserve and speculative demand in the medium term [82][83]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has adjusted slightly upwards. The pulp price is expected to have limited upward space [84][85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in East China has increased, and the inventory of styrene in East China has decreased. The valuation of the pure - benzene industry chain is restricted, and attention should be paid to the inventory increase in East China's pure - benzene main port [88][89]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda - ash manufacturers' inventories have decreased slightly. The downward space of the soda - ash price in the short term depends on coal - price fluctuations and new - capacity launches, and a bearish approach is recommended in the medium term [90]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe has increased slightly. The glass price is expected to have large fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [91][92]. 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The US will suspend special port fees and additional tariffs for one year. The SCFIS (European route) has declined. The container - freight - rate market is expected to have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities after a callback [93][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - With the expansion of the supply-demand gap in the photovoltaic glass industry, the price of the new month is expected to remain stable or decline slightly [2][6] Summary by Directory 1. Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - **Supply**: A 650-ton kiln was restarted last week, increasing the actual production capacity. The current production capacity is 89,330 tons per day with a utilization rate of 68.32%. Multiple production lines have planned launches, but due to weak market conditions and the off-season in November and December, the plans may be postponed. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting on capacity policies, with no clear conclusion yet [6][10] - **Demand**: At the end of last month, orders were mostly delivered. Currently, there are few new orders, and the sales of photovoltaic glass manufacturers are weak, with a short-term decline in demand expected [6][18] - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers increased significantly last week. As demand declines, the supply-demand gap widens, and manufacturers may face high inventory pressure again [6][21] 2. Overview of the Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data 2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of October 31, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass was 13 yuan per square meter, unchanged from last week; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass was 20 yuan per square meter, also unchanged [7] 2.2 Supply End - A 650-ton kiln was restarted last week, increasing the actual production capacity. The current production capacity is 89,330 tons per day with a utilization rate of 68.32%. Multiple production lines have planned launches, but due to weak market conditions and the off-season in November and December, the plans may be postponed. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting on capacity policies, with no clear conclusion yet [10] 2.3 Demand End - At the end of last month, orders were mostly delivered. Currently, there are few new orders, and the sales of photovoltaic glass manufacturers are weak, with a short-term decline in demand expected [18] 2.4 Inventory End - The inventory of domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers increased significantly last week. As demand declines, the supply-demand gap widens, and manufacturers may face high inventory pressure again [21] 2.5 Cost and Profit End - The profitability of the photovoltaic glass industry declined last week, and the current gross profit margin is about 0.43% [24] 2.6 Trade End - From January to September 2025, China's photovoltaic glass exports increased by 19.7% compared to the same period in 2024. The export of photovoltaic glass remains prosperous, and overseas installation demand is strong [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term bearish, pay attention to decline risks [12][13] - Foreign exchange futures (US dollar index): Short - term volatile [16][17][18] - US stock index futures: Short - term high - level volatile, bullish in the long - term with profit support [20] - Stock index futures: Long - position balanced allocation [24] - Treasury bond futures: Short - term slightly bullish with limited upside, pay attention to rhythm and odds [27] - Palm oil: Short - term expected to open lower, pay attention to long - position opportunities around 8500 yuan [31] - International soybean oil: Short - term bottom - supported, expected to be volatile [31] - Domestic soybean oil: Short - term expected to be volatile [31] - Power coal: Price supported in the fourth quarter, pay attention to weather and policy [32] - Iron ore: Short - term volatile, pay attention to policy changes [34] - Bean粕: Follow import cost, pay attention to US soybean purchase and Brazilian output [36] - Sugar: Short - term expected to be volatile [41] - Cotton: Short - term expected to be volatile, long - term cautiously bullish [46] - Rebar/Hot - rolled coil: Short - term volatile [50][51] - Red dates: Wait - and - see, pay attention to price game and purchase progress [52] - Corn starch: 11 - contract CS - C expected to strengthen further, 01 - contract may have price - difference repair [54][55] - Corn: If government - stored wheat is used for feed, there may be short - selling opportunities [56] - Alumina: Wait - and - see [59] - Copper: Short - term expected to be volatile after reaching a high, recommend buying on dips [63] - Lead: Low - inventory, short - term bullish with high uncertainty, positive spread arbitrage possible [65] - Zinc: Short - term wait - and - see, pay attention to mid - line positive spread arbitrage [70][71] - Polysilicon: Policy and fundamentals in game, long - position holders can hold, consider call options [74] - Industrial silicon: Buying on dips is cost - effective [76] - Lithium carbonate: Short - term range - bound, mid - line short - selling after demand peaks, pay attention to positive spread arbitrage [80][81] - Nickel: Q4 nickel ore price expected to rise, recommend long - position on dips or option strategies [84] - Carbon emissions: Short - term volatile [87] - Crude oil: Volatile [89] - Bottle chips: Short - term supply - demand conflict not prominent, marginal weakening expected [91] - Container freight rates: Volatile, consider long - position on dips [93] 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple financial and commodity markets. In the financial market, factors such as gold tax policy, Fed officials' attitudes towards interest rates, and economic data impact market trends. In the commodity market, supply and demand, policy, and seasonal factors affect prices. Overall, most markets are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors need to pay attention to various influencing factors and risks [12][16][30]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - New gold tax policy: VAT on standard gold for investment is refunded immediately, and related taxes are exempted. Physical gold demand may be suppressed, and short - term price is bearish [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign exchange futures (US dollar index)) - Fed officials oppose December rate cuts due to high inflation, and the US dollar is expected to be volatile [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US stock index futures) - Market expectations for rate cuts are adjusted, and short - term risk appetite declines. The market is volatile at a high level [19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock index futures) - October PMI shows production slowdown, and the stock index is expected to be volatile at a high level. Long - position balanced allocation is recommended [22][23][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury bond futures) - October manufacturing PMI declines, and November is a policy window period. The bond market is expected to be slightly bullish, but the upside is limited [25][26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean oil/Rapeseed oil/Palm oil) - Indonesian palm oil reference price rises slightly, and Malaysia's October palm oil exports increase. Palm oil price is under pressure in the short - term but may be supported later. Soybean oil is expected to be volatile [29][30][31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Power coal) - Indonesian low - calorie power coal price is stable. Coal price is expected to be stable in the short - term and strong in the fourth quarter [32]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron ore) - Third - quarter iron ore sales increase. Demand is affected by environmental protection, and price is expected to be volatile [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Bean粕) - Oil mill operation rate is high, and bean粕 price follows import cost. Pay attention to US soybean purchase and Brazilian output [35][36] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazilian sugar production increases, and Indian sugar industry requests export policy. Zheng sugar is expected to be volatile [40][41] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US cotton inspection progress is slow, and drought area decreases. Cotton price is expected to be volatile [42][44][46] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - rolled coil) - Iron water output declines, and steel price is affected by Sino - US relations. Price is expected to be volatile [47][50][51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Red dates) - Xinjiang red dates are in the drying period, and inventory increases. Price is expected to be volatile, wait - and - see [51][52] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn starch) - September starch export declines, and October export may increase. 11 - contract CS - C and 01 - contract may strengthen [53][54][55] 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn price is stable with narrow fluctuations. Pay attention to government - stored wheat auction [55][56] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Inventory increases, and the market is in oversupply. Wait - and - see [57][58][59] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Multiple copper projects have new progress. Price is affected by the US dollar and inventory, expected to be volatile [60][63] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME lead is in contango. Low - inventory supports price, pay attention to delivery risk [64][65] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some zinc mines' output changes. Price is affected by market sentiment and inventory, expected to be volatile [66][69][70] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Polysilicon futures rise, and price is in a policy - fundamentals game. Pay attention to policy progress [72][73][74] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial silicon) - Southwest production is expected to decrease. Price is expected to be supported, recommend long - position on dips [75][76] 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium carbonate) - Company negotiates to sell lithium project stake. Price is affected by supply - demand and inventory, expected to be volatile [77][78][81] 3.2.18 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Company's nickel self - supply increases. Price is affected by inventory, season, and demand, expected to be volatile [82][83][84] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Carbon emissions) - EUA price is volatile. Market trading activity decreases, and signal is neutral [85][86][87] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Crude oil) - OPEC decides to increase production in December and pause in Q1 2026. Price is expected to be volatile [87][88][89] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle chips) - Bottle chip factory price is adjusted, and supply - demand is expected to weaken marginally [90][91] 3.2.22 Shipping Index (Container freight rates) - Shipping company adjusts surcharge. Freight rate is expected to be volatile, consider long - position on dips [92][93]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The technical signals of various futures sectors are diverse. In the non - ferrous and precious metals sector, gold shows a bullish signal, while some non - ferrous metals like lithium carbonate and copper show bearish signals. In the black and shipping sector, the trends of black - series products are divided, with rebar having a short - term callback risk. In the energy and chemical sector, the signals are also mixed, with LPG and some chemical products showing bullish signals. In the agricultural products sector, most products show bullish signals, except for palm oil [1][2][3][4]. - For each specific variety, pay attention to price fluctuations near key technical levels and pivot points, and manage positions carefully [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector 1.1 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Precious metals: Gold shows a bullish signal, and silver oscillates. Non - ferrous metals: Polysilicon and cast aluminum alloy show bullish signals, while lithium carbonate, alumina, and copper show bearish signals, and the rest oscillate [11][12]. 1.2 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - The pivot point of copper is 85797 - 87530 yuan/ton, with core support at 83686 - 85377 yuan/ton and main resistance at 87907 - 89683 yuan/ton. The support and resistance intervals of non - ferrous metals such as aluminum and zinc are relatively concentrated, while the fluctuation intervals of tin and nickel are larger. New - energy metals like lithium carbonate and polysilicon have higher price levels [24]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector 2.1 Black and Shipping Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Rebar shows a bullish signal, manganese silicon shows a bearish signal, and European line shipping shows a bearish signal. Other black - series products oscillate [29][30]. 2.2 Black and Shipping Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - The pivot point of rebar is 3024 - 3086 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil is 3207 - 3272 yuan/ton. The pivot point of iron ore is 763 - 779 yuan/ton, and that of coke is 1719 - 1754 yuan/ton. The pivot point of European line shipping is 5458 - 5568 yuan/ton, maintaining a high level [37]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector 3.1 Energy and Chemical Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - In the energy sector, LPG shows a bullish signal, and the rest oscillate. In the chemical sector, PTA, p - xylene, and bottle chips show bullish signals, while PVC, propylene, and rubber - related products show bearish signals, and the rest oscillate [41][42][43]. 3.2 Energy and Chemical Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - The pivot point of crude oil is 451 - 461 yuan/barrel. Among chemical products, the pivot point of p - xylene is 6391 - 6520 yuan/ton, significantly higher than others. Aromatic - series products such as pure benzene and styrene are at relatively high levels. The technical positions of polyethylene and polypropylene in the polyolefin sector are relatively close. The technical levels of methanol are highly concentrated, indicating consistent market expectations, while the technical intervals of urea and natural rubber have a large span, indicating high potential volatility [49]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector 4.1 Agricultural Products Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Corn, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, sugar, cotton, and other products show bullish signals, while palm oil shows a bearish signal, and the rest oscillate [52][53]. 4.2 Agricultural Products Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - The pivot points of soybeans and soybean meal are in the middle range. The pivot point of palm oil is 9111 - 9295 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil is 9697 - 9893 yuan/ton, showing strong performance. The technical position of sugar is concentrated in the 5311 - 5560 yuan/ton range, with a relatively convergent fluctuation interval. The pivot points of cotton and cotton yarn show an upward trend. The technical position of pigs has a large span, indicating significant market divergence [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The penetration rate of the Chinese new energy vehicle market exceeded 30% in 2023 and 50% in 2024. In 2025, high - competitiveness new car products are continuously launched, and the price war is gradually ending [3][117]. - Overseas markets are affected by severe trade protectionism in Europe and the United States, which brings volatility risks to exports. New growth points such as the Belt and Road countries and the Middle East should be focused on [3][117]. - In the competitive landscape, the market share of domestic brands continues to expand. Companies with strong product strength, smooth overseas expansion, and stable supply should be focused on [3][117]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Tracking - The one - week price changes of related sectors and listed companies are presented. For example, among listed companies, BYD's closing price on October 31st was 103.61 yuan with a one - week decline of 0.14%, while SAIC Motor's closing price was 16.75 yuan with a one - week increase of 0.42% [14]. 3.2产业链 Data Tracking 3.2.1 China New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Sales and Exports**: From January to August globally, new energy vehicle sales reached 13.257 million, a year - on - year increase of 30.6%. In China, from October 1 - 26, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market were 901,000, with a year - on - year growth of 0% and a month - on - month decline of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 9.771 million, a year - on - year increase of 22% [1][106][115]. - **Inventory Changes**: Information on the monthly new inventory of new energy passenger vehicle channels and manufacturers is presented through relevant charts [25]. - **Delivery Volume of Chinese New Energy Vehicle Enterprises**: The monthly delivery volumes of companies such as Leapmotor, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO are presented through charts [28][33]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Global Market**: From January to August, new energy vehicle sales reached 13.257 million, a year - on - year increase of 30.6% [1][115]. - **European Market**: The cumulative sales in Europe were 2.442 million, with a year - on - year growth rate of 30.8% [1][115]. - **North American Market**: The cumulative sales from January to August were 1.205 million, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.8% (cumulative sales from January to September were 1.399 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%). The sales and penetration rate in the United States reached record highs in August and September, mainly due to the expiration of the federal electric vehicle tax credit ($7,500) on September 30th [1][115]. - **Other Regions**: The cumulative sales in other regions were 665,000, with a year - on - year growth rate of 50.6% [1][115]. 3.2.3 Power Battery Industry Chain - Information on power battery loading volume (by material), export volume (by material), weekly average price of battery cells, and material costs is presented through relevant charts [76][80]. 3.2.4 Other Upstream Raw Materials - The daily prices of rubber, glass, steel, and aluminum are presented through relevant charts [99][100]. 3.3 Hot News Summaries 3.3.1 China: Policy Dynamics - On October 30th, China and the United States reached a consensus. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year. China will suspend relevant export control measures announced on October 9th for one year [103][104]. - On October 31st, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that it will promote green products and vigorously develop green industries such as new energy vehicles [105]. 3.3.2 China: Industry Dynamics - From October 1 - 26, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market were 901,000, with a year - on - year growth of 0% and a month - on - month decline of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 9.771 million, a year - on - year increase of 22% [1][106][115]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Anhui's automobile production was 2.4044 million, ranking first in China, mainly due to the significant increase in new energy vehicle production [107]. - As of the end of September 2025, the cumulative export of domestic cars from Shanghai Waigang Haitong Wharf exceeded 5.32 million, with an average annual growth rate of 10.6%, and the proportion of new energy vehicles increased from 34% to 59% [108]. 3.3.3 China: Enterprise Dynamics - BYD sold 441,706 vehicles in October, a record high this year. In Q3, its total revenue was 194.985 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.05% [109]. - Leapmotor delivered 70,289 vehicles in October, a year - on - year increase of over 84% [111]. - XPeng delivered 42,013 vehicles in October, a year - on - year increase of 76% [111]. - NIO delivered 40,397 vehicles in October, a year - on - year increase of 92.6% [111]. - Li Auto delivered 31,767 vehicles in October, and the orders for the Li i6 exceeded 70,000 after its launch [111]. 3.3.4 Overseas: Policy Dynamics - The US Senate voted to reject Trump's global tariff policy, but the vote may only be symbolic before the House of Representatives conducts a similar vote [111][112]. - Norway has basically achieved the 100% electrification goal and plans to gradually cancel electric vehicle subsidies within two years [2][113][116].