1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatility [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's enthusiasm for long - positions is high, and precious metals continue to rise. London gold has risen 4.5% to $4,533 per ounce, silver has risen by over 18%, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped to an absolute low of 57. The trading of domestic funds is active during the overseas Christmas holiday, showing a significant deviation from the fundamentals. The U.S. economy in 2025 is better than expected at the beginning of the year, but the subsequent consumption momentum is expected to slow down, and it is necessary for fiscal expenditure to continue to expand and the monetary policy to maintain an easing cycle. The trading heat of precious metals has continued to rise recently, and there may be intensified market fluctuations around the New Year's Day holiday and in January due to the adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index weight, and the regular pre - holiday position - reducing operations will also bring correction risks [2][3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The internal - market basis (spot - futures) is - 7.50 yuan/gram, with a weekly change rate of 83.8%. The internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) is - 11.65 yuan/gram, with a weekly change rate of 28.6%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 97,692 kilograms, with a weekly increase of 6.5%. The COMEX gold inventory is 36,191,255 ounces, with a weekly increase of 0.51%. The SPDR ETF holding volume is 1,071.13 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.77%. The CFTC gold speculative net long position is 134,130 lots, with a weekly increase of 7.6%. The U.S. Treasury bond yield is 4.14%, with a weekly decrease of 0.5%. The U.S. dollar index is 98.03, with a weekly decrease of 0.69%. The SOFR is 3.66%, with a weekly decrease of 0.8%. The U.S. 10 - year break - even interest rate is 2.2257%, with a weekly decrease of 0.71%. The S&P 500 index is 6,930, with a weekly increase of 1.4%. The VIX volatility index is 13.6%, with a weekly decrease of 8.8%. The 10 - year real interest rate in the United States is 1.90%, with a weekly increase of 0.4% [11] 3.2 Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 3.2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. overnight secured financing rate is 3.66%. Oil prices have risen 0.47%, and the U.S. inflation expectation is 2.22%. The U.S. dollar index has dropped 0.41%, and the U.S. Treasury bond yield has dropped to 4.13%. The S&P 500 has risen 1.4%, and the VIX index has slightly dropped to 13.6 [15][19] 3.2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed - country stock markets have risen, with the S&P 500 rising 1.4%. Most developing - country stock markets have risen, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.88%. The real interest rate has slightly risen to 1.9%, and the gold price has risen 4.5%. The spot commodity index has closed up, and the U.S. dollar index has dropped 0.41% to 98, with most non - U.S. currencies appreciating. The yields of U.S. and German bonds have slightly decreased, with a U.S. - Germany spread of 1.27%. The yield of British Treasury bonds is 4.5%, and that of Japanese bonds is 2.04%. The euro has appreciated 0.53%, the pound has appreciated 0.87%, the yen has appreciated 0.75%, and the Swiss franc has appreciated 0.77% [21][24][33] 3.3 Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative position data shows that the SPDR gold ETF holding volume has increased to 1,071 tons. The RMB exchange rate has shown a volatile trend, and the discount of Shanghai gold has widened. Gold and silver have risen, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped to 57 [36][38] 3.4 Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: U.S. new housing starts and building permits in November. Tuesday: U.S. Chicago PMI in December. Wednesday: China's official manufacturing PMI in December and U.S. initial jobless claims for the week. Thursday and Friday: New Year's Day holiday closure. Eurozone and U.S. final manufacturing PMI for December [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Guinea's long - term bauxite contract prices have dropped, and policies are favorable for alumina to rebound from the bottom. Although the alumina industry is in an over - supply cycle with continuous inventory accumulation, due to previous price over - decline and the expected policy introduction, the price has rebounded from the bottom, and the market is expected to transition to a bottom - oscillation stage [1][2][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic bauxite prices changed little last week. Main producing areas are promoting mining rectification, and domestic supply is hard to significantly improve in the short term. Guinea's large - scale mining companies' Q1 2026 long - term contract quotation is $66.5 per dry ton, a significant drop. Some companies have resumed production, and new arrivals of ore are 4.779 million tons [2][12] - **Alumina**: Last week, alumina spot prices declined. The northern comprehensive price dropped by 90 yuan/ton, the domestic weighted index by 63.9 yuan/ton, and the imported port price by 70 yuan/ton. The theoretical northern import loss is about 105 yuan/ton. Due to pollution, some Henan enterprises reduced production, with a total affected capacity of about 0.6 million tons. The national operating capacity decreased by 0.4 million tons to 95.5 million tons, with an operating rate of 83.3% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, some electrolytic aluminum projects are in production, and the domestic operating capacity increased by 45,000 tons to 44.388 million tons. Overseas, some electrolytic aluminum plants increased production, and the overseas operating capacity increased by 110,000 tons to 29.771 million tons [14] - **Inventory**: As of December 25th, the national alumina inventory was 4.773 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons. Electrolytic aluminum enterprise inventory and alumina enterprise inventory both increased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 18,970 tons to 160,829 tons. The alumina futures price rebounded significantly from the low level [15] 3.2 Key Event News Summary within the Week - On December 26th, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to strengthen management and optimize the layout of alumina and copper smelting industries [16] - As of December 26th, the Australian alumina quotation was about $308 per ton, and the theoretical northern import loss was about 105 yuan/ton [16] - On December 17th, some expired and low - price Xinjiang warehouse receipts of alumina were cancelled, and some aluminum plants started to pick up goods from the delivery warehouse, with the possibility of further cancellations [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, bauxite import country port shipments, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and power - coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][25][27] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price, the futures price ratio between electrolytic aluminum and alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [32][37][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: This part contains data on electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant inventory, domestic alumina yard/on - the - way inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [42][47][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillating / Polysilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current production cut scale is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory in Q1 26 during the dry - season. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, although there may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, the peak - season expectation cannot be falsified, so it is more advisable to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices [3][17][18] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2605 contract of industrial silicon increased by 190 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8880 yuan/ton. The SMM spot East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9250 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang 99 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton. The PS2605 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1290 yuan/ton to 58955 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re - feedstock increased by 700 yuan/ton week - on - week to 53900 yuan/ton [10] 2. Intensified Production Cuts in Organic Silicon, Rising Prices of Silicon Wafers and Batteries Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward this week. Some large factories in Xinjiang increased production by 2 furnaces and some had 2 furnaces under maintenance, with the total unchanged. Inner Mongolia had 4 furnaces under maintenance, and Gansu increased production by 4 furnaces after previous maintenance. SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons week - on - week, and sample factory inventory increased by 0.31 million tons. The industrial silicon market is in tight balance in December, but may accumulate inventory in Q1 next year if production cuts are not sustained. After the price increase, some large factories started hedging sales, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low. Attention should be paid to whether the polysilicon sector will cut production [12] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. Some companies reduced production loads. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 68.33%, with a weekly output of 45200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.42%. The inventory was 44000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2%. With the supply contraction and inventory decline, the price may rise steadily after the pre - festival restocking demand is released [12][13] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward this week. After the establishment of the platform company, the spot price of polysilicon rose again. As of December 25, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 303,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The production schedule in January is not clear, but the shipment volume will be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons. There may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, but the polysilicon spot is still considered bullish [14] Silicon Wafers - The price of silicon wafers strengthened significantly this week. The expected production volume in December is 45GW and may decline further in January. As of December 25, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 21.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.19GW. Four leading enterprises raised their quotes on the 25th. Attention should be paid to whether batteries and components can pass on the price [15] Battery Cells - The price of battery cells rose rapidly this week due to the rising silver paste price. As of December 22, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 10.06GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.62GW. Leading battery cell manufacturers raised their prices again, but the price increase of components was less than expected. If the price cannot be passed on, the start - up rate in January is expected to decline [15] Components - The price of components remained basically stable this week. Affected by the rising battery cell price, component enterprises raised their quotes. The domestic end - of - year installation demand ended, and overseas orders had no significant increase. Professional component factories will start reducing production in January, and the domestic production volume in January may fall below 30GW. As of December 15, the finished - product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 31.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.5GW [16] 3. Investment Recommendations - For industrial silicon, although the market rumors and positive sentiment in the commodity market drove the price up, from the fundamental perspective, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, it is recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices, but investors should hold positions carefully due to large price fluctuations and risk - control measures from the exchange [3][17][18] 4. Hot News Compilation - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the minimum opening order quantity, trading fee standard, and trading limit of polysilicon futures contracts. The Zhihui Photovoltaic adjusted the price limit range and trading margin standard of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts during the New Year holiday in 2026 [19][20] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - This part mainly includes various data charts of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, such as the price, output, inventory, and profit data of each link, with specific data sources provided [21][30][34]

| [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 碳酸锂：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 | 28 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★正极厂减产挺价，关注锂电顺价博弈 上周（12/22-12/26）锂盐价格呈偏强走势。LC2601 收盘价环比 +16.5%至 12.78 万元/吨，LC2605 收盘价环比+17.2%至 13.05 万 元/吨；SMM 电池级及工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比+14.6%、14.9% 至 11.2、10.9 万元/吨。氢氧化锂价格跟随上行，SMM 粗颗粒及 微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环比分别+18.2%、+16.9%至 10.2、 10.6 万元/吨。电工价差环比走阔 50 元至 2,650 元/吨。电池级氢 氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比缩窄 1470 元至 0.99 万元/ 吨。 上周碳酸锂价格延续大幅上行，加权合约持仓量变化较小，或预 示部分空头砍仓进一步推升行情，短期走势易受资金情绪影响， 不建议追高。基本面上，SMM 周度去库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The US GDP in Q3 exceeded expectations, with an annualized quarterly - on - quarterly initial value of 4.3%, much higher than the expected 3.3%. Although the US economy performed better than expected in 2025, there are still risks. The subsequent consumption momentum is expected to slow down, and the economy has not yet entered a recovery cycle. The recent strong performance of commodities is due to the expectation of significant monetary policy easing and the resulting long - term inflation increase [2][37] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remained high. Most stock markets rose, and most bond yields declined. The US Treasury yield dropped to 4.13%. The US dollar index fell 0.41% to 98, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 4.5% to $4533 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 13.6, and the spot commodity index closed up. Brent crude oil rose 0.47% to $60.33 per barrel [1][9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose. The S&P 500 index rose 1.4%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.5%, and the Nikkei 225 index rose 2.51%. The US economy in Q3 exceeded expectations, but the subsequent consumption momentum may slow down. The Fed is in an interest - rate cut cycle in 2026, which supports the stock market. Domestic stocks showed resilience, with aerospace becoming a popular sector [10][11] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.13%. The US economy has resilience, and the downward space for US Treasury yields is limited. Developed - country bond yields have upward potential. The emerging - market bond market showed mixed performance, and the pressure on the US dollar to weaken decreased. The domestic bond market was weakly oscillating [14][18][21] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell 0.41% to 98, and most non - US currencies appreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.42%, the euro rose 0.53%, the pound rose 0.87%, and the yen rose 0.75% [26][29] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 4.5% to $4533 per ounce, and silver prices rose 18.3% in a single week. Brent crude oil rose 0.47% to $60.33 per barrel. The commodity spot index closed up, and the short - term risk of precious metals and non - ferrous metals increased significantly [30][32] 3.3 Hot - Spot Tracking - The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, and commodities accelerated their rise. The strong performance of commodities is due to the expectation of significant monetary policy easing and the resulting long - term inflation increase [33][37] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: US new housing starts and building permits in November - Tuesday: US Chicago PMI in December - Wednesday: China's official manufacturing PMI in December, US initial jobless claims for the week - Thursday and Friday: New Year's Day holiday closure; Eurozone and US December manufacturing PMI final values [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term, medium - term, and long - term trend rating of stock index futures is "oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoint of the Report - This week, the global stock market recovered. Affected by foreign holiday misalignment, the A - share market was mainly priced by domestic capital. The Shanghai Composite Index achieved eight consecutive positive days with increasing trading volume. The sentiment of holding cash for the holiday was low. In the short term, there are limited macro - level negatives, and positive factors like Beijing's real - estate policy optimization will boost the market. The subsequent market is expected to be oscillatory and positive, and long positions in stock index futures can be held continuously [2][10] Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week View and Overview of Key Macroeconomic Events 1.1 Next - Week Viewpoint - The subsequent market is expected to be oscillatory and positive, and long positions in stock index futures can be held continuously [2][10] 1.2 Key Events This Week - On December 22, the central bank introduced a one - time credit repair policy for personal overdue information from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2025, with a single - amount limit of no more than 10,000 RMB. The 12 - month LPR remained unchanged for the seventh consecutive month, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year and above LPR at 3.5% [11][12] - On December 23, Shanghai proposed the main economic goals for the 15th Five - Year Plan period and long - term goals for 2035 [13][14] - On December 24, the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development promoted the spot - sale system for commercial housing. Beijing optimized real - estate policies, including relaxing purchase conditions for non - local households and supporting multi - child families' housing needs. There were also reports of SMIC planning to raise prices for downstream customers [15][16][17] - On December 26, the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund was officially launched. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 13.1% in November. The central bank aimed to increase the scale and proportion of medium - and long - term funds invested in A - shares [18][19][20][21] 2. One - Week Market Performance Overview 2.1 Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From December 22 - 26, the global stock market denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 1.43%, with emerging markets (+2.11%) > developed markets (+1.35%) > frontier markets (+0.74%). The South Korean stock market rose 6.87%, outperforming the world, while the Indian stock market fell 0.21%, performing the worst globally [22] 2.2 Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - From December 22 - 26, Chinese equity assets rose significantly. In terms of different markets, A - shares > Chinese concept stocks > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of the A - share markets in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing was 1965.3 billion yuan, an increase of 204.7 billion yuan compared to last week. All broad - based A - share indices closed higher, with the CSI 500 Index rising 4.03%, performing the best, and the micro - cap stock index rising 0.68%, performing the worst [25] 2.3 Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - Most GICS primary industries globally rose this week. The leading industry was materials (+2.78%), and the industry with the largest decline was consumer staples (-0.07%). In the Chinese market, materials had the largest increase (+5.85%), and consumer staples lagged (-0.65%) [28] 2.4 Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC Primary Industries - Among A - share CITIC primary industries, 24 rose (20 last week) and 6 fell (10 last week). The industry with the largest increase was non - ferrous metals (+6.45%), and the industry with the largest decline was commerce and retail (-1.31%) [31] 2.5 Weekly Overview of China A - Share Styles - Small - cap growth stocks outperformed this week [35] 2.6 Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis - Relevant charts show the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [38][39] 3. Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast 3.1 Broad - Based Index Valuation - The report provides PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year for multiple broad - based indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 100, etc. [44] 3.2 Primary Industry Valuation - The report provides valuation data for various primary industries, including PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year [45] 3.3 Equity Risk Premium of Broad - Based Indices - The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 decreased slightly this week [46][51] 3.4 Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast of Broad - Based Indices - The 2025 expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 was adjusted down to 8.65%, and the 2026 rate to 9.20%. For the CSI 500, the 2025 rate was adjusted down to 27.35%, and the 2026 rate was adjusted up to 22.23%. For the CSI 1000, the 2025 rate was adjusted up to 28.56%, and the 2026 rate was adjusted down to 23.09% [52] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking 4.1 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year bond yield rose, the 1 - year yield fell, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 98.0, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.03 [62] 4.2 Tracking of Trading - Type Capital - This week, the average daily trading volume of north - bound funds decreased by 26.4 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 41.3 billion yuan [61] 4.3 Tracking of Capital Flows through ETFs - There were 30 on - exchange ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 29 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 40 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 increased by 530 million, the CSI 500 by 690 million, the CSI 1000 by 1.3 billion, and the CSI A500 by 6.1 billion [65][66][69] 5. Tracking of High - Frequency Domestic Macroeconomic Data 5.1 Supply - Side: Tire Production Rate Declined - The report shows data on national blast furnace operating rates, coking enterprise operating rates, domestic crude steel daily output, etc., and the tire production rate declined [71][72][73] 5.2 Consumption - Side: Seasonal Uptick in Real - Estate Transactions - There was a seasonal uptick in real - estate transactions, including data on first - hand housing transaction areas in 30 large and medium - sized cities, second - hand housing transaction areas in 16 key cities, land transaction areas in 100 large and medium - sized cities, and second - hand housing listing volume and prices. The year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales rebounded, and the crude oil price dropped to around $63.7 per barrel [78][79][87] 5.3 Inflation Monitoring: The Uptrend of Producer Goods and Agricultural Product Prices Leveled Off - Producer goods prices rose rapidly, agricultural product prices recovered, and the report also shows the weekly change rate of the commodity index [89][90][94]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - Institutional trading behavior is stabilizing, and the bond market continues to recover. The long - end bonds rose despite the strong performance of equities and commodities this week. The market's microstructure is expected to be stable next week, and the long - end varieties are expected to outperform the short - end [2][12]. - The manufacturing PMI in December is expected to be weak, and the impact of fundamentals on the bond market is still neutral to positive, but the trading intensity of the bond market on fundamentals should not be overestimated [2][13]. - The capital market is balanced, and the long - end performance is expected to be stronger than the short - end. The curve is expected to flatten [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From December 22 - 28, treasury bond futures moderately recovered. On Monday, the LPR rate was not cut, and the market's expectations were disappointed. On Tuesday, the bond market strengthened significantly but weakened slightly at the end of the session. On Wednesday, the bond market fluctuated narrowly. On Thursday, short - term bonds performed strongly in the morning but declined as the stock market rose. On Friday, the bond market fluctuated moderately higher. As of December 28, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.546, 106.030, 108.280, and 112.850 yuan respectively, up 0.066, 0.105, 0.200, and 0.560 yuan from last weekend [1][11]. 1.2 Next Week's Views - Institutional behavior is stabilizing, and the bond market will continue to recover. The weakening of institutional trading behavior's fragility, the expected weak manufacturing PMI, and the stable capital market will drive the bond market to strengthen. The long - end varieties are expected to outperform the short - end [12][13]. 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 9 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 210.077 billion yuan and a net financing of 174.846 billion yuan, a change of - 166.050 billion yuan and + 153.932 billion yuan from last week respectively. 6 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 2.037 billion yuan and a net financing of - 3.174 billion yuan, a change of - 38.000 billion yuan and - 31.248 billion yuan from last week respectively. 427 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 560.290 billion yuan and a net financing of - 321.910 billion yuan, a change of - 432.900 billion yuan and - 252.250 billion yuan from last week respectively [15]. 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields showed a divergent trend. As of December 26, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.34%, 1.59%, 1.84%, and 2.22% respectively, a change of - 3.44, - 1.20, + 0.91, and - 0.10 bp from last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y and 10Y - 5Y widened, while the spread of 30Y - 10Y narrowed [20]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures moderately recovered. As of December 28, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.546, 106.030, 108.280, and 112.850 yuan respectively, up 0.066, 0.105, 0.200, and 0.560 yuan from last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 33,286, 64,319, 79,154, and 121,251 lots respectively, a change of + 97, - 2,458, - 1,225, and - 20,549 lots from last week. The open interests were 81,462, 168,368, 253,519, and 168,309 lots respectively, a change of + 4,571, + 24,377, + 18,603, and + 2,963 lots from last week [31][34]. 3.2 Basis and IRR - The basis of TL fluctuated significantly this week, while the basis of other varieties fluctuated slightly. It is expected that the basis will converge slightly next week. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of contracts such as TF2603 [38]. 3.3 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - As of December 26, the inter - period spreads of the 2603 - 2606 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.044, + 0.025, - 0.020, and - 0.220 yuan respectively, a change of - 0.004, + 0.025, 0.000, and - 0.030 yuan from last weekend [42]. 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 422.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 457.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 34.8 billion yuan. There were also 300 billion yuan of MLF and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits maturing, and the central bank conducted 400 billion yuan of MLF operations and 210 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposit tenders. As of December 26, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.53%, 1.52%, 1.26%, and 1.45% respectively, a change of + 1.16, + 8.24, - 1.53, and + 1.69 bp from last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.49 trillion yuan, 3.714 billion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 88.28%, lower than last week [44][47][49]. 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds declined slightly. As of December 26, the US dollar index fell 0.69% to 98.0341 from last weekend, the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds was 4.14%, down 2 bp from last weekend, and the spread between Chinese and US 10 - year Treasury bonds was inverted by 230.2 bp [55]. 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices rose across the board this week. As of December 26, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,558.94, 6,870.35, and 1,541.90 points respectively, up 98.48, 198.29, and 44.69 points from last weekend. Agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of December 26, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 17.43, 5.80, and 7.95 yuan/kg respectively, a change of - 0.10, - 0.07, and + 0.27 yuan/kg from last weekend [57]. 7. Investment Suggestions - The bond market is expected to moderately recover. Unilateral strategy: The bond market is expected to continue its moderate recovery. Short - hedging strategy: Gradually exit short - hedging positions. Cash - and - carry strategy: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of TF2603. Curve strategy: The curve is expected to flatten, and investors are advised to participate in the flattening strategy with a light position [2][15][18]

年度报告-黄金/白银 黄金：骐骥千里，行而不辍 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | 黄金：强烈看涨 | | --- | --- | | | 白银：看涨 | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 12 月 26 日 | [★Ta2b0l2e5_S年um黄m金a强ry]势上涨气势如虹 2025 年黄金全年涨幅约 70%，国际金价从 2600 美元/盎司上涨 至最高 4500 美元/盎司以上，国内黄金价格从 630 元/克上涨至 最高 1000 元/克以上。市场交易的长线逻辑仍然是美国和全球主 要经济体的财政和货币政策处于宽松周期，对等关税则强化去 美元化叙事，黄金的投资配置需求持续增长。 ★2026 年黄金牛市周期延续 贵 金 属 目前美国经济周期逆风风险尚未消退，关税的影响不容忽视， 就业市场尚未企稳，基准情况下预计美国通胀温和回升，油价 或为通胀增添不确定性。美联储仍处于降息周期，但鹰派和鸽 派分歧空前加大，降息空间和节奏博弈增加，美联储重启 RMPs 呵护流动性，但尚未开启大规模扩表。 中期选举政绩优先，特朗普政府需要延续财政扩张以维持经济 增长和股市靓丽，减税将成为关税后的重要推进事项。美国政 府债务 ...

年度报告——纯碱 风雨萧瑟，熊途依旧 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | 纯碱 | | : | 看跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 | 26 | 日 | 2025 年在行业扩能压力下，纯碱基本面呈过剩态势，年内 价格屡创新低。2026 年产能端的增长已是明牌，2025 年末 投产的 350 万吨产能将对 2026 年全年的纯碱供给端构成明 显冲击。本轮行业扩能预计至少持续到 2028 年，这种持续 大规模的低成本产能扩张对纯碱价格端的压制是显而易见 的。随着行业扩能压力进一步显现，加上明年煤价运行中 枢相较今年并无进一步下移空间，明年或有更多低竞争力 产能降负荷。预计 2026 年纯碱产量较 2025 年增长 3%左右。 ★2026 年纯碱消费量预计增长 2.7%，轻重碱表现继续分化： 能 源 化 工 近年来纯碱需求端维持增长态势。2025 年虽然重碱需求端 因浮法和光伏玻璃行业减产出现萎缩，但轻碱需求侧增长 较多，纯碱整体需求依然有所增长。展望 2026 年，我们认 为浮法和 ...

年度报告——铝 铝市紧平衡延续，维持低多策略 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | | | 铝：看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 | 26 | 日 | [Table_Analyser] | [★Ta成bl本e_：Su矿mm石a充ry]裕价格下行，氧化铝仍处于成本定价周期 2026 年海外铝土矿增量在 3000-4000 万吨，产量增量较铝元素需 求而言明显过剩，2026 年几内亚矿价将延续下降趋势，价格运 行区间预计为 60-70 美元/吨。2026 年全球氧化铝仍处于产能快 速投放周期，供给过剩、成本下探，氧化铝仍处于成本定价的下 行周期，国内氧化铝价格运行区间预计为（2400，3000）元/吨。 有 色 金 属 ★供应：国内接近天花板、海外电力紧张，全球铝供给增速偏低 2026 年随着国内供给进一步接近天花板，产量增速明显下降， 尽管海外供应压力有所增加，但新的电力供给约束将压低海外供 给增速，令全球电解铝供给增速有所下降。我们预计 2026 年全 球电 ...