周度报告——商品期权 商品期权周报：2025 年第 22 周 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 2 日 ★ 商品期权市场活跃度 本周（2025.5.26-2025.5.30）商品期权市场成交有所下滑，日 均成交量为 547 万手，日均持仓量为 848 万手，环比变化分 别为-7%和+2.32%。分品种来看，本周日均成交活跃的品种 主要包括 PTA（53 万手）、玻璃（46 万手）、纯碱（43 万 手）。此外，本周共有 6 个品种成交增长超过 100%，成交量 增长较为显著的品种为对二甲苯（+3439%）、工业硅（+198%） 以及瓶片（+150%）。与此同时，成交量下降较为明显的品 种则有多苯乙烯（-84%）、乙二醇（-61%）。从持仓量数据 来看，本周日均持仓量较高的品种为豆粕（88 万手）、纯碱 （62 万手）和玻璃（57 万手）。日均持仓量环比增长较为迅 速的品种为对二甲苯（+117%）、工业硅（+89%）和锰硅 （+45%）。建议投资者可重点关注交易活跃品种可能存在的 市场机会。 ★ 商品期权主要数据点评 标的涨跌情况：本周商品期权标的期货以下降为主，41 个品 种周度收涨。周度涨幅较高的品种有菜粕（ ...

smingfTable_Title] 中汽协发布于维护公平竞争秩序、 促进行业健康发展的倡议 ★ 动态跟踪 2025 年第 21 周（5 月 19 日至 5 月 25 日），国内乘用车零 售 39.4 万辆，同比增长 10.6%；新能源乘用车零售 22.0 万辆，同 比增长 19.7%；新能源渗透率为 55.9%。今年以来，国内乘用车 累计零售 810.0 万辆，同比增长 4.8%；新能源乘用车累计零售 400.8 万辆，同比增长 30.4%；累计新能源渗透率为 49.5%。 月初各新能源车企发布 5 月交付数据，零跑汽车连续三个月 稳居造车新势力领先地位，小鹏汽车同比增速高企。 周度报告——新能源汽车 新 能 源 另，中汽协发布《关于维护公平竞争秩序、促进行业健康发 展的倡议》，提到，以无序"价格战"为主要表现形式的"内卷 式"竞争，是行业效益下降的重要因素。希望全行业同心协力， 共同维护公平竞争秩序，促进行业健康、可持续发展。 与 新 材 料 海外市场，欧洲 4 月乘用车销量较去年持平，纯电动车、插 混电动车增长 27.8%、31.1%。特斯拉欧洲销量占有率从 2023 年、 2024 年的 12%降至 ...

周度报告-黄金 关税扰动犹存，黄金走势震荡 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 2%至 3289 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.41%，通胀预 期 2.33%，实际利率微降至 2.07%，美元指数涨 0.22%至 99.3，标普 500 指数涨 1.88%，离岸人民币小幅贬值，沪金维持溢价。 贵 金 属 节前金价小幅回调，内外盘黄金期货持仓量均出现一定的减仓， 既有 06 合约步入交割月的影响也有国内假期因素影响，市场仍然 受到美国对外关税政策的扰动。美国国际贸易法院阻止"解放日" 关税生效，裁定特朗普以贸易逆差等为由，援引《国际紧急经济 权力法》征收全面关税，属于越权行为，但随后联邦上诉法院暂 停一项阻止特朗普征收全球关税的裁决，在此过程中黄金先跌后 涨，美国继续实施对等关税。同时美国与欧盟、日本的谈判也在 继续推进，特朗普表示与中国的谈判目前处于停滞状态，并且威 胁对进口钢铁和铝加征 50%关税，市场避险情绪有所回升。 基本面数据显示美国通胀压力尚未体现关税影响，4 月核心 PCE 同比从 2.7%回落至 2.5%，环比增速 0.1%，均符合市场预期。个 人收入环比增长 0.8% ...

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 特朗普关税再度施压，美元短期走弱 市场风险偏好摇摆，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率降至 4.4%。美元指数涨 0.22%至 99.3，非美货币多数贬 值，离岸人民币跌 0.45%，欧元跌 0.14%，英镑跌 0.58%，日元 跌 1.02%，瑞郎跌 0.16%，雷亚尔、韩元、比索跌超 1%，澳 元、兰特、泰铢、林吉特、新西兰元收跌。金价跌 2%至 3289 美 元/盎司，VIX 指数回落至 18.6，现货商品指数收跌，布油跌 2.5%至 63.9 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 股市情绪受到特朗普政府关税政策的扰动，先是美国国际贸易 法院阻止"解放日"关税生效，裁定特朗普以贸易逆差等为 由，援引《国际紧急经济权力法》征收全面关税，属于越权行 为，股市情绪一度被提振。但随后联邦上诉法院暂停一项阻止 特朗普征收全球关税的裁决，美国继续对外加征关税，美国与 欧盟、日本等其他国家的贸易谈判也在继续推进，仍然牵动市 场神经。特朗普也再度施压中国，表示谈判目前停滞状态，并 将对外的钢铁等关税提升至 50%。美联储 5 月利率会议纪要显 示经济面 ...

热点报告—锌/铅 smingfTable_Title] 海外铅锌矿企业季度运营分析： 锌矿放量预期不变，铅矿紧缺隐忧已现 | 走势评级: | | --- | [★Ta1bQle2_5S锌um精m矿ar增y] 复产相对顺利，铅精矿表现不及预期 海外样本矿企 1Q25 锌精矿产量为 131.2 万金属吨，同比增加 7.9 万金属吨(YoY+6.4%)；铅精矿产量为 30 万金属吨，同比下降 1.4 万金属吨(YoY-4.4%)。产量增加的主要原因在于：①大型项目如 期复增产；②新项目顺利爬产；③品位和回收率上升；④去年同 期基数较低；⑤不可抗力因素减少。产量下降的主要原因包括： ①矿石品位下降；②外部不可抗力；③运营效率下降。1Q25 海 外炼厂已开始进行主动减产，铅锌锭产量均环比录减。 ★产量指引基本不变，维持二季度放量预期 有 色 1Q25 仅 South32 下调了产量指引，其余企业维持不变，样本企业 合计产量指引同比 24 年增长 4.7%（占海外矿产量的 31.5%）。 金 属 锌精矿 TC：TC 或仍有小幅上行空间，然下半年国内炼厂签订长 协环比上半年有所减少，叠加锌价看跌预期和海外矿山存在产量 不及 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 | 孙伟东 | 首席分析师(有色金属) | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F3035243 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0014605 | | Tel: | 8621-63325888 | | Email: | weidong.sun@orientfutures.com | 主力合约行情走势图（氧化铝） [Table_Summary] ★几内亚 A 矿区暂未恢复，氧化铝供给小幅增加 有 色 金 原料：上周国内矿石价格短期暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿 的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。环保督察组进驻山西地区，不 过对矿山产出影响有限，山西目前开采的矿山仍在继续开采，没 有复产的矿山则继续停产整顿，供应端没有太多变化。进口方面， AXIS 矿区顺达、中水电及高顶三家矿山仍处于停产状态，企业 在与政府接触，但没有取得进展。矿石散货成交明显增加主流成 交价格维持在 74-75 美元/干吨。到货方面，期内新到矿石 367.1 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 269.1 万吨，澳大利亚资源 8 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 价格快速下杀，关注供给端变化 [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 新疆大厂部分复产，但由于工业硅价格快速下跌，市场亦传言 其后续复产规划将暂且搁置。6 月西南进入丰水期后，预计仍 有少量工厂计划复产。需求端仍无明显起色，虽然有机硅开工 率回升，但多晶硅复产不及预期，铝合金方面维持刚需采购。 多晶硅厂家近期粉单招标价格下跌至 8800-9000 元/吨，有机硅 亦以 521#替代 421#，521#采购价格在 8300-8400 元/吨。目前 盘面价格几乎跌破全行业现金成本线，基差快速走强，部分贸 易商开始陆续囤货，后续关注供给端的进一步变化。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 6 月签单逐步展开，现货成交价格略有下调。考虑龙头企业率 先复产乐山产能，6 月硅片排产上调至 9.3 万吨。此外，市场 传言某新疆二三线硅料厂二期产能有复产计划，后续根据实际 进展我们将对平衡表再进行调整。根据 SMM，截至 5 月 29 日，中国多晶硅厂库存 27 万吨，环比+1 万吨。近期下游备货 使得原材料库存变动较大，但备货主力仍为前期原材料库存较 高的几家硅片厂，其余硅片厂无太多原材料囤货。在多晶硅现 ...

周度报告——股指期货 关税扰动仍存，股指缩量震荡 | 走势评级: | | --- | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 股指：震荡 [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a美ry]国关税闹剧反复，A 股大盘股回调 股 指 期 货 本周（05.26-05.30）以美元计价的全球股市收涨。MSCI 全球指 数涨 1.60%，其中发达市场（+1.60%）>前沿市场（+1.22%）> 新兴市场（-1.16%）。韩国股指涨 3.63%领跑全球，中国股市跌 2.77%全球表现最差。中国权益分市场看， A 股>港股>中概股。 A 股沪深京三市日均成交额 10941 亿元，环比上周（11735 亿元) 缩量 794 亿元。A 股指数中，大盘蓝筹股指普遍收跌，北证 50、 微盘股指数则表现强势，周度涨超 2%。本周 A 股中信一级行业 中共 20 个上涨（上周 9 个），10 个下跌（上周 10 个）。领涨 行业为综合金融（+10.50%），跌幅最大的行业为汽车（-4.32%）。 利率方面，本周 10Y 国债收益率下行，1Y 上行，利差缩小。ETF 资金流向方面，跟踪沪深 300 指数的 ETF 份额本周增加 6 亿份， 跟踪中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market lacks factors to break the current situation, and the market sentiment is weak. The bond market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation, with short - selling pressure slightly stronger at times. However, the valuation of Treasury bond futures is approaching a reasonable level, and the risk of a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to consider buying on dips. In the long - term, the bond market is bullish, and the yield curve is expected to steepen, but the process will be tortuous. The opportunity for futures cash - and - carry arbitrage is decreasing [2][14][16] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From May 26 to June 1, Treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Monday, with calm news and balanced funds, futures opened higher but weakened in the afternoon. On Tuesday, the selling force was slightly stronger, leading to an oscillating decline. On Wednesday, futures oscillated narrowly, and the spot - bond interest rate rose slightly due to high insurance redemptions of bond funds. On Thursday, futures dropped significantly after the US court's ruling on Trump's "reciprocal tariffs," but the spot - bond interest rate declined slightly after the market closed. On Friday, futures had an island reversal as the US appellate court approved a stay of the trade - court order. As of May 30, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts were 102.398, 106.005, 108.715, and 119.410 yuan, down 0.004, 0.040, 0.140, and 0.190 yuan from the previous weekend [1][13] 1.2 Next Week's View - The May official manufacturing PMI met expectations and had limited impact. The market will focus on the capital and certificate - of - deposit (CD) rates. Although the risk of a significant increase in these rates is low, market sentiment is weak, and concerns about CD price hikes need time to ease. The Treasury bond futures market will continue to oscillate narrowly, with short - selling pressure stronger at times. It is recommended to buy on dips [2][14][16] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 61 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 394.212 billion yuan and a net financing of 267.382 billion yuan, down 574.110 billion and 280.697 billion yuan from last week. 39 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 228.212 billion yuan and a net financing of 137.382 billion yuan, down 20.310 billion and 5.207 billion yuan. 347 CDs were issued, with a total issuance of 669.5 billion yuan and a net financing of 1.677 billion yuan, down 4.394 billion and up 4.167 billion yuan [19][21][22] 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields showed a differentiated trend. As of May 30, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.46%, 1.55%, 1.68%, and 1.90%, changing - 0.70, + 1.62, - 4.20, and + 1.00 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 10Y - 5Y spreads narrowed by 5.71 and 5.82 basis points to 21.55 and 12.78 basis points, while the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 5.20 basis points to 22.18 basis points. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.55%, 1.62%, and 1.71%, up 4.37, 2.01, and 0.36 basis points [26][27] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures declined. As of May 30, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year futures contracts were 102.398, 106.005, 108.715, and 119.410 yuan, down 0.004, 0.040, 0.140, and 0.190 yuan. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year futures were 36,744, 60,618, 73,230, and 81,786 lots, down 12,434, 12,367, 26,624, and 12,186 lots. The open interests were 121,931, 166,043, 207,541, and 124,113 lots, down 3,482, 4,634, 10,880, and 2,668 lots [36][39] 3.2 Basis and Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - The opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage continued to decline. The market was weak this week, and the basis rose slightly due to news such as the ban on tariff policies. Looking ahead, the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunity will disappear, and the basis will return to normal [43] 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of May 24, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts between 2506 and 2509 were - 0.170, - 0.290, - 0.220, and - 0.670 yuan, changing - 0.014, + 0.010, + 0.060, and + 0.010 yuan from the previous weekend [47] 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - The central bank's net reverse - repurchase injection was 65.66 billion yuan this week. In May, the central bank conducted 70 billion yuan in outright reverse - repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan. As of May 30, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.70%, 1.66%, 1.47%, and 1.62%, up 7.06, 7.85, - 9.40, and 6.50 basis points. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 6.50 trillion yuan, down 0.22 trillion yuan from last week, and the overnight proportion was 83.88%, lower than last week [50][52][57] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined. As of May 30, the US dollar index rose 0.32% to 99.4393, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41%, down 10 basis points. The 10 - year China - US Treasury yield spread was inverted by 273.4 basis points [61][62] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices fell this week. As of May 30, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3383.03, 6023.71, and 1558.33 points, down 69.18, 100.59, and 37.32 points. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed trend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.66, 4.33, and 7.84 yuan/kg, down 0.29, up 0.06, and down 0.03 yuan/kg [63][65] 7. Investment Suggestion - It is recommended to buy on dips [66]

周度报告—碳酸锂 动力端库存引发担忧，周内月差波动剧烈 | 走势叶级: | | --- | | 叔止口如 | [Table_Summary] ★动力端库存引发担忧，周内月差波动剧烈 综合而言，当前矿-盐负反馈尚未结束，终端需求不确定性增加， 同时结构快速走强后现货压力也边际增加，短期内基本面仍是偏 空指引。但考虑到矿价愈发逼近部分矿山的当期现金成本后，短 期内下跌空间已较为有限，当前点位不建议继续追空，前期空头 头寸亦可在月差合适时逐步换月，注意规避高持仓下主力合约换 月带来的价格波动。 ★风险提示 下游消费不及预期，新增产能建设进度与企业预期有所出入。 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 碳酸锂：震荡 | 陈祎萱 CFA | 高级分析师（有色金属） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 6 月 1 日 | 从业资格号： | F3074710 | | [Table_Summary] | | 投资咨询号： | Z0017769 | | ★动力端库存引发担忧，周内月差波动剧烈 | | Tel: | 8621-63325888-2722 | | | | E ...