周度报告-国债期货 TL 反弹受阻，调整风险仍存 [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 国债：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货反弹受阻 本周（12.08-12.14）国债期货反弹受阻。周一，上午股市震荡上 涨，债市继续下跌。午间公布的 11 月出口增速超预期，债市下 跌加速。下午政治局会议通稿公布，表述未超市场预期，国债 期货拉升，但随即再度小幅走弱。周二，股市震荡走弱，叠加 市场预期大行拉长久期的能力上升，国债期货震荡上涨。周 三，上午 PPI 增速低于市场预期，股市走弱，国债期货震荡上 涨。午后市场对稳地产政策发力的预期一度升温，债市回吐部 分涨幅，但最终继续上涨。周四，美联储如期降息，并宣布宣 布购买美国国债。但国内权益资产大幅下跌，叠加资金均衡偏 松，国债期货上涨。周五，由于中央经济工作会议提及"灵活 高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，国债期货高开，但随即 市场认为短期内降息概率不高，国债期货转而下跌。截至 12 月 12 日收盘，两年、五年、十年和三十年期国债期货主力合约结 算价分别为 102.462、105.820、107.9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US labor market is weakening as the number of initial jobless claims has reached the highest increase since 2020, causing the US dollar index to decline [17][20]. - A - shares are facing challenges as the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference is prudent, with potentially fewer incremental policies and limited profit - repair elasticity next year [22]. - The bond market has strengthened rapidly due to the unexpected monetary policy statement in the economic work conference, but the room for further increase is limited, and it will gradually enter a relatively strong oscillation [26]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are firm due to high spot basis, strong willingness of industrial giants to take delivery, and high downstream demand, but short - term chasing is not recommended [4][36]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the decline is supported by iron - water rigid demand, and port inventories will continue to accumulate [42]. - Zinc prices may rise as the short - term LME zinc delivery risk intensifies, and a bargain - hunting approach is advisable before December 17 [6][69]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US House of Representatives rejected the impeachment of Trump. Gold prices rose 2% due to the Fed's dovish rate cut and increased expectations of domestic RRR and rate cuts. There is a risk of over - heating in commodity sentiment [13][15]. - Investment advice: Gold prices will oscillate, and silver will be more volatile. Pay attention to risks [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 44,000, the largest increase since 2020. The labor market is weakening, and the US dollar index will continue to decline [17][20]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will continue to decline [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The World Bank raised China's economic growth forecast for 2025 to 4.9%. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized a prudent policy tone. The A - share market is facing challenges [21][22]. - Investment advice: Allocate long positions in stock indices evenly [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Broadcom's Q4 performance exceeded expectations. The US stock market is expected to oscillate strongly supported by the Fed's rate cut and liquidity release [23]. - Investment advice: The US stock market will remain oscillating strongly at the end of the year. Pay attention to economic data [24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The economic work conference proposed to use RRR and rate cuts flexibly. The bond market has strengthened rapidly, but the upward space is limited and will enter a relatively strong oscillation [25][26]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach [27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB lowered Brazil's soybean production forecast by 550,000 tons to 177.12 million tons. The domestic soybean auction had a 77.5% transaction rate, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal continued to widen [28][30]. - Investment advice: The main contract of soybean meal will oscillate. If South American production is normal, short on rallies. Pay attention to China's soybean purchases, state - reserve actions, and South American weather [30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 10 increased by 6.87%. German legislation is beneficial to rapeseed oil, and domestic customs inspections are stricter [31]. - Investment advice: Rapeseed oil may stabilize and decline. Palm oil prices will be suppressed by supply pressure. Pay attention to Indonesia's supply and demand - side procurement [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Xinjiang cotton enterprises are actively selling at spot prices. Zhengzhou cotton futures are firm due to high basis and strong downstream demand, but short - term chasing is not recommended [33][36]. - Investment advice: Do not chase the rise in the short term [37]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises' operating rates are high, and inventory has slightly decreased. The short - term inventory pressure is acceptable, and the rice - flour price difference will oscillate [38]. - Investment advice: Use a spread strategy around the current North China processing cost range [39]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Mongolia plans to increase coal exports to 100 million tons in 2027. Steam coal prices are expected to continue to fall until mid - to late January [40][41]. - Investment advice: Coal prices will continue to fall until mid - to late January [41]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - It is expected that the sales area of new commercial housing in 2026 will decline by 6.2% year - on - year. Iron ore prices will oscillate weakly, and port inventories will continue to accumulate [42]. - Investment advice: Iron ore prices will oscillate weakly [42]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Tangrenshen expects its meat product revenue to exceed 1.6 billion yuan in 2025. The pig market is trading the problem of oversupply, and there is a risk of price decline [43][45]. - Investment advice: Close short positions in the near - term contracts and trade the far - term contracts in a short - term range [45]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn processing enterprises' inventories have increased, and port inventories have changed. Corn futures may oscillate weakly, and spreads may show an inverse spread [45][47]. - Investment advice: Contracts 03 and 05 may oscillate weakly. Pay attention to policy regulation and expectations [47]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - It is expected that the sales area of new commercial housing in 2026 will decline by 6.2% year - on - year. Steel prices will oscillate, and the upper and lower limits are limited [48][51]. - Investment advice: Adopt an oscillating trading strategy for steel prices [52]. 3.2.10 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Hebei is under pressure. The coking coal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices may oscillate in the short term [53]. - Investment advice: The market may oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to restocking [53]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chile's Codelco's copper production decreased in October. Macro factors support copper prices, and the spot premium may be under pressure [54][58]. - Investment advice: Go long on dips for copper prices [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A polysilicon platform company is being established. The polysilicon industry has inventory accumulation, and prices may stop falling. Futures can be bought on dips, and options can sell out - of - the - money put options [60][62]. - Investment advice: Spot prices may stop falling. Consider long positions in futures and selling put options in options [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The US added 11.7GW of photovoltaic capacity in Q3. The industrial silicon market has weak demand and may accumulate inventory. Short on rallies after rebounds [63][64]. - Investment advice: Short on rallies after rebounds [65]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead 0 - 3 spread is at a discount. The lead market is oscillating, and the delivery risk has decreased. Observe the delivery volume [66]. - Investment advice: Wait and see for lead trading [66]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Zinc ingot inventory has decreased, and the LME zinc delivery risk has intensified. Zinc prices may rise, and buy on dips before December 17 [67][69]. - Investment advice: Go long on dips for zinc. Hold positive - spread positions and wait and see for cross - border trading [70][71]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia warned mining companies. Nickel is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and the medium - term impact of Indonesia's policies needs to be evaluated [72][73]. - Investment advice: Nickel will oscillate at a low level in the short term. Evaluate Indonesia's policies in the medium term [73]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Albemarle completed a lithium extraction pilot plant. The lithium carbonate market may be supported in the short term but may decline in the off - season. Consider long positions on dips [74]. - Investment advice: The short - term market may be under pressure, and long on dips in the medium - to - long term [75]. 3.2.18 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - South Korea plans to build a chip factory, and the US wants to transfer Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. Buy on dips and avoid chasing highs [76][80]. - Investment advice: Tin prices will oscillate at a high level. Buy on dips and avoid chasing highs [80]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price closed at 57.41 yuan/ton on December 11, down 2.53%. The market will oscillate in the short term [81]. - Investment advice: The CEA price will oscillate in the short term [83]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Urea enterprise inventory decreased by 5.63 million tons to 1.2342 million tons. Urea prices are oscillating weakly. The 01 contract has limited upward space, and the 05 contract can be considered for long positions after getting a safety margin [83][85]. - Investment advice: The 01 contract's trading range remains unchanged, and consider long positions in the 05 contract after getting a safety margin [85]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has risen locally. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. The short - term market may be weak, and pay attention to supply reduction due to profit compression [87][89]. - Investment advice: The short - term market may be weak. Pay attention to supply reduction due to profit compression [89]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price has declined. PVC supply is high, demand is weak, and the price is dragged down by coal prices. The market will remain weak, and short - selling is not cost - effective [90][92]. - Investment advice: The PVC market will remain weak. Avoid short - selling at low valuations [92]. 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Portugal and Italy will have strikes, which may affect container transportation. The PA price may decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [93]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Gold**: Short - term gold price remains in a volatile pattern, silver's upward trend is expected to slow down, and attention should be paid to correction risks. [13][14] - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: The US dollar index is expected to weaken. [19] - **US Stock Index Futures**: US stocks are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger at the end of the year, and attention should be paid to the subsequent release of economic data. [21] - **Stock Index Futures**: Allocate long positions in stock indices evenly. [24] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It is recommended to focus on the strategy of going long on dips. [28] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: If the South American soybean production is worry - free, the May contract should be considered for shorting on rallies. Also, continue to pay attention to China's purchase progress of US soybeans and the dynamics of state reserves. [30] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: After the MPOB report is released, the price of palm oil futures drops significantly and then stabilizes and rebounds. It is expected that the price may be supported to some extent. After waiting for the demand to pick up and the signal of production reduction, long positions in the 05 contract can be considered. [33] - **Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: It is still recommended to view the steel price from a volatile perspective. [36] - **Black Metals (Iron Ore)**: The overall iron ore price is expected to continue its weak trend. The fundamental situation is seasonally weak. [37] - **Black Metals (Steam Coal)**: The steam coal price is expected to continue to fall until mid - to - late January. [38] - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term and cautiously optimistic in the long term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - level and changes in downstream orders. [43] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina)**: It is recommended to wait and see. [46] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon)**: The spot price of polysilicon is expected to be difficult to fall further. In futures, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips after the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. In options, pay attention to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money put options. [49] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon)**: The fundamental situation of industrial silicon is not optimistic. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rallies after the price rebounds. [52] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: In the short term, the futures price may be under pressure. In the medium - and long - term, the strategy of going long on corrections can be adopted. [53] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level, waiting for macro - level guidance. In the medium - term, the impact of Indonesia's contraction on nickel ore needs to be evaluated. [56] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: In terms of strategy, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading, arbitrage trading, and domestic - foreign trading. [57] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: In terms of single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. For arbitrage trading, the long - spread position can be held. For domestic - foreign trading, wait and see. [59] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Tin)**: The tin price is expected to continue its high - level volatile trend in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on corrections, and beware of the risk of price decline. [61] - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: It will maintain a volatile trend in the short term. [64] - **Energy Chemicals (Styrene)**: If there is a new round of panic selling in pure benzene and styrene due to factors such as full storage, it may be an opportunity to lightly go long on far - month contracts on dips. [65] - **Energy Chemicals (LLDPE)**: It is expected that the futures price still has room to fall, and it is recommended to hold short positions. [68] - **Energy Chemicals (Methanol)**: There is not much contradiction in the fundamentals currently, and the long - spread strategy is more cost - effective. [70] - **Energy Chemicals (Asphalt)**: The asphalt market as a whole continues to be weak, and wait for more winter storage policies to be released. [72] - **Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: In the medium - term, a bearish view should be taken on soda ash, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies. [74] - **Energy Chemicals (Float Glass)**: The fundamental situation of float glass is still in excess. In the medium - term, the strategy of shorting on rallies should be adopted. [75] - **Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate)**: It is not recommended to chase the high. Short - selling should wait for the signal that the spot price fails to meet expectations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [76] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the gold price fluctuated and closed higher. However, the room for interest rate cuts in 2026 is limited, and the Fed's balance sheet has not expanded rapidly, so the short - term positive impact on the gold price is limited. [13] - The US dollar index weakens due to the Fed's interest rate cut and internal differences, which increases market risk appetite. [17][18] - The US stock market may face reduced support from interest rate cut trading in the future, and market games will increase. However, it is expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger at the end of the year. [20][21] - China's inflation in November shows a K - shaped divergence, with CPI rising and PPI falling. More incremental policies are needed to boost prices in the future. [23] - The inflation in the domestic bond market is expected to rise, but the increase is limited. After a sharp decline, the odds of going long on TL have increased significantly. [27] - The supply and demand of various commodities are different. For example, the supply of steam coal is excessive and the price is expected to fall; the supply of palm oil is under pressure, but there may be support in the future; the supply of polysilicon is facing challenges, but the price may be difficult to fall further. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate target range to 3.5% - 3.75% and will start buying Treasury bills on December 12. The gold price fluctuated and closed higher, but the short - term positive impact is limited. The internal differences of the Fed are increasing, and the subsequent policy game will increase. [13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points with internal differences, leading to an increase in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar. [17][18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and started buying short - term Treasury bonds. Powell's view on the employment market is more cautious. The future room for interest rate cuts is reduced, and the support for the stock market from interest rate cut trading may decrease. [20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The IMF raised China's economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026. China's inflation in November shows a K - shaped divergence, and more policies are needed to boost prices. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in stock indices. [22][23][24] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's CPI and PPI in November show a K - shaped divergence. The central bank carried out 1898 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1105 billion yuan. After a sharp decline, the odds of going long on TL have increased significantly. [25][27][28] Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US soybean crushing volume in October was much higher than that in September and the same period last year. There are many market news, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal has widened significantly. If the South American soybean production is worry - free, the May contract should be considered for shorting on rallies. [29][30] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10 decreased by 10.31% month - on - month. In November, the inventory increased by 13.04% month - on - month, reaching a high level in recent years. After the MPOB report is released, the price of palm oil futures drops significantly and then stabilizes and rebounds. [31][32][33] 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The retail and wholesale volume of passenger cars in December 1 - 7 decreased compared with the same period last year. The steel price has rebounded, mainly due to the expectation of real - estate policies. It is still recommended to view the steel price from a volatile perspective. [34][35][36] 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - MinRes' Lamb Creek project is under construction. The iron ore price is expected to continue its weak trend. The fundamental situation is seasonally weak, and the port inventory is still at a high level. [37] 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the North Port market on December 10 was weak. The inventory continued to accumulate, and the demand was weak. It is expected that the price will continue to fall until mid - to - late January. [38] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of December 2, Brazil's cotton planting progress was 5.3%, slower than the same period last year. The USDA's December report slightly adjusted the supply - demand balance sheets of US and global cotton. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile, and it is cautiously optimistic in the long term. [39][41][43] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in East Australia. The alumina price in the spot market declined, and the new production capacity is about to be put into operation, causing the futures price to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [44][45][46] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The shareholder list of the polysilicon platform company was disclosed. The polysilicon industry inventory continues to accumulate, but the spot price may be difficult to fall further. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in futures and selling out - of - the - money put options in options. [47][48][49] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A silicon enterprise's industrial silicon device has potential safety hazards. The fundamental situation of industrial silicon is not optimistic. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rallies after the price rebounds. [50][51][52] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Samsung SDI signed a battery supply agreement. The short - term futures price may be under pressure, and the strategy of going long on corrections can be adopted in the medium - and long - term. [53] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia issued a new regulation on fines for illegal mining in forest areas. The nickel - iron production in China and Indonesia in November remained at a high level. In the short term, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, waiting for macro - level guidance. [54][55][56] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a discount. The LME inventory decreased, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased marginally. The lead price is expected to be mainly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see in all aspects. [57] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Chile's zinc concentrate exports from January to October decreased by 17.8% year - on - year, and Peru's exports in September decreased by 22% month - on - month. The zinc price is expected to face some upper - level pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and domestic - foreign trading, and hold long - spread positions for arbitrage trading. [58][59] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin 0 - 3 spread was at a premium. The LME inventory increased, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The tin market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to continue its high - level volatile trend. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on corrections and beware of risks. [60][61] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, but the gasoline and refined oil inventories increased. The oil price fluctuated and rose. It will maintain a volatile trend in the short term. [62][63][64] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device was put into operation. The pure benzene and styrene markets are in a consolidation state. If there is a new round of panic selling in pure benzene and styrene due to factors such as full storage, it may be an opportunity to lightly go long on far - month contracts on dips. [65] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises increased. The futures price is expected to fall further, and it is recommended to hold short positions. [66][67][68] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory decreased. The short - term methanol futures price is expected to remain volatile. The long - spread strategy is more cost - effective. [69][70] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased. The asphalt market is weak, and wait for more winter storage policies to be released. [71][72] 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - A soda ash device was reduced in production. The soda ash futures price is under pressure due to factors such as cost reduction and increased production capacity. In the medium - term, a bearish view should be taken, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies. [73][74] 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained unchanged. The float glass market is in excess supply, and in the medium - term, the strategy of shorting on rallies should be adopted. [75] 2.22 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - CMA CGM adjusted the D&D fees. The container freight rate 02 contract has rebounded, but there is a lack of effective positive drivers. It is not recommended to chase the high, and short - selling should wait for the signal that the spot price fails to meet expectations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors including policy, economic data, and international events. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities, and investors are advised to pay attention to specific events and data changes in each sector [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, and silver rose sharply above the $60 mark, mainly boosted by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. However, the precious metals have fully priced in the rate cuts, so over - chasing the rise is not recommended [1][13]. - Investment advice: Wait for the Fed's interest - rate meeting to land. Gold will show a volatile trend, and silver may face a risk of high - level decline, with increased market volatility [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Hasset's statement that the Fed has a large space for interest - rate cuts implies an unexpected easing, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken [16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will weaken in a volatile manner [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of job openings reached a five - month high, but the employment market still shows a weakening trend, and the US economy continues to face downward pressure. The market has fully priced in the December rate cut, and the market has become cautious before the interest - rate meeting [20]. - Investment advice: The three major stock indexes will fluctuate at high levels. Pay attention to the callback risk after the short - term profit - taking after the interest - rate meeting [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market has corrected, mainly affected by policies. The Political Bureau meeting emphasizes cross - cycle adjustment, and the stock market expectations have been revised down. The more detailed deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference is worth attention [22][24]. - Investment advice: Allocate long positions in each stock index evenly [24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The market sentiment has improved, and treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. The bond market is entering a mild recovery. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [25]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on dips [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel prices continued to fluctuate and decline. The market is weak due to the lack of obvious policy increments in the Political Bureau meeting and the weakening of cost support from the decline of coking coal and coke prices. Short - term steel prices still have the risk of decline [27]. - Investment advice: Short - term steel prices will fluctuate and decline. Adopt an overall volatile thinking [28]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 5 increased, but the data cannot represent the overall December production. The market is waiting for the MPOB report. The supply pressure of palm oil is expected to gradually ease in December [29]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the MPOB November report. After the report is released, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract on dips [29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The near - month main contract of hogs rose rapidly and showed a high - level shock. However, the short - term supply pressure has not been substantially alleviated, and there is still a risk of price decline [31]. - Investment advice: Consider lightly shorting the near - month contract; treat the far - month contract with a short - term range thinking and control position risks [31]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch prices are stable. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term inventory pressure of starch remains acceptable [32][34]. - Investment advice: Maintain range operation for the rice - flour price difference [35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - After the rumor of the reserve auction, the market sentiment cooled down, and the futures price continued to decline. The impact of the reserve auction is expected to be limited [35]. - Investment advice: The decline of spot and 01 contracts is expected to be limited, while 03 and 05 contracts may be weaker. Pay attention to policy regulation and expected differences [36]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in Beigang is weak. The demand for power plant stockpiling has weakened, and the coal price has fallen rapidly with the accumulation of inventory. If it is a warm winter, the coal price pressure may last until January next year [37]. - Investment advice: If it is a warm winter, the coal price pressure may last until January next year. Pay attention to daily consumption and port inventory [38]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Iron ore prices weakened with the overall black fundamentals. The port inventory is rising, and the iron - making molten iron output is expected to decline. The overall ore price is expected to decline slightly [39]. - Investment advice: The iron - making molten iron output is expected to fall to around 2.28 million tons from the end of December to early January. The overall ore price is expected to decline slightly [40]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME and SHFE lead prices fluctuated and declined. There is still a risk of delivery. The demand side is strong, and the fundamentals of lead remain strong. Observe the volume of delivery [41]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, stop profit for short - term long positions and observe the delivery volume; for arbitrage, wait and see [41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - LME zinc prices fluctuated and corrected. The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, and the supply decreased significantly. The demand for zinc may increase marginally. High - level partial profit - taking is recommended for long positions [42]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, partially stop profit for long positions to avoid macro - level fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the long - short spread position and wait and see for the internal - external spread [42]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A polysilicon platform company was registered. The fundamentals of polysilicon are not optimistic, but the spot price may be difficult to fall further. Pay attention to the price adjustment [43][44][46]. - Investment advice: The spot price may be difficult to fall. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the futures market after the discount to the spot price, and consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Observe the absolute price of the 01 contract for arbitrage [46]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are not optimistic. There is a short - term buying support, but there is a lack of upward drive. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rebounds [48]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals are worse than expected. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rebounds [48]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. Pay attention to the Fed's and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decisions. The price of nickel iron is expected to rise slightly, and the short - term bottom of the pure nickel price has been reached. [49][50] - Investment advice: Unilaterally, consider lightly going long on dips. Pay attention to the change of the Indonesian nickel ore price and the RKAB approval limit [50]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The global key mineral competition will reshape the 2026 market pattern. The short - term macro - level risk aversion sentiment suppresses copper prices, but the fundamentals provide support. The copper price is expected to be volatile in the short term [51][53]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, wait patiently for the opportunity to go long on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see [55]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Liontown signed a supply agreement with Tianhua New Energy. The current supply - side impact is controllable, but future supply - side disturbances should be vigilant. The real - side situation may weaken in the short term [56][57]. - Investment advice: Lightly short on highs in the short term, and consider going long on dips after the risk of the off - season decline is released [58]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of overseas tin ore is unstable, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and be cautious about the risk of high - level decline [61]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips, but do not chase the rise. Be cautious about the price decline caused by the easing of geopolitical unrest or capital outflows [62]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA slightly raised the forecast of US crude oil production this year and lowered the forecast for next year. Oil prices are in a weak and volatile state [63][64]. - Investment advice: Maintain a volatile trend in the short term [65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is in a short - term shock. The impact of the carry - over policy may be more emotional than substantial. Enterprises in need can buy on dips [66][67]. - Investment advice: The CEA price will fluctuate in the short term [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price is in a low - level shock. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the coal price decline also drags down the PVC price. The short - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve [69][70]. - Investment advice: The PVC price will maintain a low - level shock pattern. Chasing short is not cost - effective [70]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is partially declining. The supply is high, the demand is not significantly improved, and the overall supply - demand is still loose. The short - term price may continue to be weak [71][72]. - Investment advice: The short - term price may continue to be weak. Pay attention to whether the profit compression can lead to supply reduction [72]. 3.2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The tender of the largest port in Brazil is unfavorable to Maersk and MSC. The demand has improved in the peak season, but the freight rate increase may be weak. The short - term price may decline in a volatile manner [73][74]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a weak - volatile thinking in the short term and wait and see [74].

日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-09 宏观策略（黄金） 黄金 ETF 持有量微降 金价震荡收跌白银高位回落，市场等待本周美联储降息落地， 缺乏增量利多后步入盘整阶段，如果是鹰派降息落地则面临回 调风险，市场对降息 25bp 已经充分定价。 中央政治局会议召开 宏观策略（股指期货） 中央政治局会议召开 晨 宏观策略（国债期货） 报 11 月中国出口增速超预期 短线市场调整风险或并未完全释放，但做多胜率和赔率均较此 前上升。 农产品（豆粕） 上周豆粕库存略降 美国将我国采购 1200 万吨大豆的目标延期至 2 月底，关注今晚 USDA 月度供需报告。我国 11 月进口大豆 810.7 万吨，同环比国 内大豆供应仍然充足，豆粕库存维持高位。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 中国工程机械工业协会：11 月我国挖掘机开工率为 57% 综 合 11 月中国出口大超预期，贸易顺差快速积累，前 11 月已超 1 万 亿美元，对经济形成较强支撑。出口链或成为 2026 年增长最为 强劲的板块。 钢价震荡回落，市场走弱一方面由于政治局会议并未提出明显 政策增量，市场预期转弱。另一方面在于双 ...

能 源 临近年末，行业需求端缩水幅度较大。终端陆续停工，对组件采 购减少，从而光伏玻璃消费量相应减少。 化 工 上周光伏玻璃厂家库存继续增长，临近年末，由于光伏玻璃需求 端缩水幅度较大，而供给端降幅较小，导致行业供需差不断扩大。 周度报告——光伏玻璃 行业供需矛盾加剧，光伏玻璃价格继续承压 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 12 月 8 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/12/5 当周）： 截至 12 月 5 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 12.5 元/平方米，环比上周持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 19.5 元/平方米，亦环比上周持平。 上周光伏玻璃供给端保持稳定，目前国内光伏玻璃在产产能 88680 吨/天，环比持平，产能利用率 67.18%，亦环比持平。预 计本周行业有一条产线存在点火预期。随着生产企业压力不断增 大，不排除未来市场存在预期外冷修的情况。 ★ 供需分析： 随着行业供需矛盾加剧，光伏玻璃市场价格将继续承压。 近期光伏玻璃行业毛利率持续走弱，目前毛利率约为-6.65%。当 前天然气陆续开始执行冬气价，成本有所上涨，而光伏玻璃价格 预期继 ...

上海东证期货有限公司 目录 一、宏观脉络追踪 二、全球大类资产走势一览 三、大类资产周度展望 ——贵金属、外汇、美股、A股、国债 四、全球宏观经济数据跟踪 一、宏观脉络追踪 宏观脉络追踪 本周海外市场较为平淡，ADP就业数据进一步走弱，9月PCE数据符合预期，市场充分计价12月降息，风 险偏好温和回升。周中日本央行意外释放加息信号，市场流动性边际紧张，但特朗普强烈暗示哈塞特可能 成为下一任美联储主席，市场对于美联储远期持续释放流动性预期增强，全球流动性仍将维持充裕，日本 加息仅造成短期扰动。不过，美国服务业ISM维持韧性，消费者信心有所改善，美国经济仍未显著恶化， 美联储降息空间有限，未来降息路径仍有博弈空间，风险资产普遍高位震荡，短期缺乏进一步催化，关注 下周美联储利率会议后资金获利了结的风险。 国内市场无论是对即将召开的政治局会议的预期还是对岁末年初稳经济政策如何接力的预期，均比较低， 中日关系紧张态势未消也对市场形成一定的阻力。关注即将召开的政治局会议，未来政策刺激的力度和节 奏将为后续市场表现定调。 全球宏观及大类资产配置周报 东证衍生品研究院 宏观策略组 2025年12月8日 二、全球大类资产走势一 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 中国 11 月末黄金储备增加 3 万盎司，美国石 油钻机数量上升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-08 晨 国常会研究进一步做好节能降碳工作 报 A 股短期内受保险新规提振，但行情并未大幅放量，总体上资金 仍然处于观望状态。宏观周来临，将为股市定调。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 11 月下旬重点钢企粗钢日产 181.8 万吨 宏观策略（黄金） 中国 11 月末黄金储备增加 3 万盎司 周五金价震荡收跌至 4200 美金下方，日内波动增加，美国 9 月 核心 PCE 同比 2.8%基本符合预期，市场对于本周 12 月利率会 议降息 25bp 也定价充分。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国 11 月物价指数符合预期 综 美国 11 月核心 PCE 物价符合预期，通胀压力放缓，市场风险偏 好回升，美元指数走弱。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 钢价震荡运行，近期五大品种去库尚可，但卷板绝对库存压力 较高。钢价趋势性驱动依然不强。临近年末，市场政策预期升 温，关注预期落地情况。 农产品（豆粕） 阿根廷大豆播种完成 49% 市场仍不确定美豆出口改善程度，此外 USDA 预测明 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market increased slightly this week, with an average daily trading volume of 7.92 million lots and an average daily open interest of 11.41 million lots, showing a week-on-week change of +2.59% and +8.99% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][9]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance this week, with the energy - chemical sector mostly declining and the metal sector mostly rising. Most commodity options' implied volatility increased weekly. For varieties with high implied volatility, investors should be wary of unilateral risks and consider short - selling volatility opportunities; for those with low implied volatility, buying options has a higher cost - performance ratio [2][19]. - The PCR of trading volume and open interest of different varieties reflects the market's short - term and long - term expectations of rising or falling prices. For example, the PCR of trading volume of lithium carbonate, apple, and live pigs is at a historical high, while that of aluminum, zinc, and gold is at a one - year low [3][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market was 7.92 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 11.41 million lots, with week - on - week changes of +2.59% and +8.99% respectively [1][9]. - Actively traded varieties this week included silver (760,000 lots), lithium carbonate (750,000 lots), and glass (640,000 lots) [1][9]. - Three varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, namely Shanghai aluminum (+164%), aluminum alloy (+138%), and pulp (+123%) [1][9]. - The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were p - xylene (-96%), apple (-93%), and red dates (-92%) [1][9]. - The varieties with high average daily open interest were glass (1.25 million lots), soda ash (1.01 million lots), and soybean meal (840,000 lots) [1][9]. - The varieties with a rapid week - on - week increase in average daily open interest were silver (+76%), tin (+71%), and synthetic rubber (+50%) [1][9]. 3.2 This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Changes - The energy - chemical sector mostly declined, and the metal sector mostly rose. The varieties with high weekly increases included silver (+7.54%), copper (+6.12%), and pulp (+4.61%); the varieties with high weekly decreases included alumina (-5.62%), glass (-5.60%), and caustic soda (-5.58%) [2][19]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased weekly. 212 varieties' current implied volatility was above the 50th percentile of the one - year historical data. The implied volatility of Shanghai copper and Shanghai aluminum increased by 8.03 and 5.48 percentage points respectively this week [2][19]. - The varieties with implied volatility at a one - year historical high included corn, copper, aluminum, tin, silver, and pulp; those with implied volatility at a one - year historical low included urea, glass, rapeseed meal, natural rubber, PTA, iron ore, and soda ash [2][19]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The PCR of trading volume of lithium carbonate, apple, and live pigs was at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a decline; the PCR of trading volume of aluminum, zinc, gold, styrene, and LPG was at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an increase [3][20]. - The PCR of open interest of p - xylene, lithium carbonate, iron ore, pulp, and silver was at a historical high, indicating a high - level accumulation of the sentiment of betting on a decline; the PCR of open interest of gold, aluminum, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, and methanol was at a one - year low, indicating an accumulation of the sentiment of betting on an increase [3][20]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data of other varieties can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current futures market shows a significant differentiation pattern. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors are generally strong, while the energy and chemical sectors and the agricultural products sectors are weak. The four major stock index futures show a bullish trend, and the signals in the treasury bond futures market are also differentiated [1][2]. - In operation, it is necessary to treat different types of varieties differently. For strong varieties, avoid chasing high prices and focus on opportunities after corrections. For weak varieties, pay attention to risk control [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Colored and Precious Metals Sector - Gold in the precious metals sector shows a bullish signal, and silver is mainly oscillating. In the non - ferrous metals sector, zinc, lead, stainless steel, etc. show bullish signals, while industrial silicon, alumina, and lithium carbonate show bearish signals [10]. - For Shanghai copper CU2601, the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged, with the key resistance level at 93,800 - 94,700 yuan/ton. There may be a short - term correction, but there is support at around 91,000 yuan/ton. If there is no top divergence and the Bollinger Band remains expanding during the correction, it is expected to continue the upward trend [12]. 3.2 Black and Shipping Sector - Coking coal and manganese silicon in the black sector show bullish signals, while rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. show bearish signals. European line container shipping shows a bullish signal [20]. - For rebar RB2601, the mid - term upward repair still has momentum, but the MA60 moving average is a resistance level. The daily line shows that there are risk signals, and the upper resistance range is 3,200 - 3,250 yuan/ton [24]. 3.3 Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil in the energy sector shows a bullish signal, and LPG shows a bearish signal. In the chemical sector, p - xylene, plastic, etc. show bearish signals [30]. - For methanol 2601, the price mainly oscillates around the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the upward channel is not smooth. Bulls need to pay attention to position management [33]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Sector - Palm oil and red dates in the agricultural products sector show bullish signals, while soybean No.1, soybean meal, etc. show bearish signals [39]. - For sugar SR601, the medium - term price still has downward fluctuation space, and the short - term rebound power is weak. Pay attention to position management [44]. 3.5 Stock Index Futures Sector - The four major stock index futures all show bullish signals, among which the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures show strong bullish signals [50]. - For the IC CSI 500 futures, the short - term has a certain upward repair power, but the medium - term price mainly oscillates, and the upward space is limited. Pay attention to position management [52]. 3.6 Treasury Bond Futures Sector - The 2 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures show bullish signals, while the 5 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures mainly oscillate [57]. - For the T 10 - year treasury bond futures, if the price continues to deviate below the MA250, the downward pressure is large; if it fluctuates between the two moving averages, wait and see; if it stabilizes above the MA120, the downward risk weakens [60][62].