日度报告——综合晨报 美国上诉法院批准暂缓执行贸易法院命令 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-30 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国上诉法院批准暂缓执行贸易法院命令 美国上诉法院暂缓了执行贸易法院命令，特朗普关税政策继续 执行，市场风险偏好回落，美元指数走低。 宏观策略（黄金） 美国至 5 月 24 日当周初请失业金人数 24 万人 综 金价先跌后涨最终收涨，主要受到特朗普对等关税被贸易法院 阻止后又被最高法院恢复的事件扰动，市场避险情绪先降后升。 美国政府目前仍在与不同国家进行贸易谈判。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 2660 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 美关税政策被叫停对于债市的影响主要集中在情绪层面。国债 期货估值基本合理，短线存在做多机会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 首批收购存量商品房专项债落地 本周五大品种去库表现尚可，螺纹产量下降带动降库加快。卷 板需求维持韧性，环比有所回升，钢价也有所反弹。但需求走 弱预期仍难证伪，双焦表现弱势，预计钢价反弹空间有限。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 马来西亚计划在 2030 年前将 B30 生物燃料用于运输行业 扫描二维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 21st week of 2025 (from May 19th to May 25th), the domestic passenger car retail sales reached 394,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%; new energy passenger car retail sales were 220,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 19.7%. The new energy penetration rate was 55.9%, up 4.3 percentage points from the same period last year and down 0.4 percentage points from the previous week. Since the beginning of this year, cumulative passenger car retail sales were 8.1 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; cumulative new energy passenger car retail sales were 4.008 million units, a year - on - year increase of 30.4%, with a cumulative new energy penetration rate of 49.5% [1][12]. - The demand in the new energy vehicle market is clearly differentiated. Leading brands have consolidated their leading positions through product advantages and market strategies. New brands like Xiaomi have brought new variables, and traditional automakers such as Chang'an and Chery have achieved remarkable new energy sales [2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Passenger Car Market Weekly Overview - **Overall Sales**: In the 21st week of 2025, domestic passenger car retail sales were 394,000 units (up 10.6% year - on - year), and new energy passenger car retail sales were 220,000 units (up 19.7% year - on - year). The new energy penetration rate was 55.9% [1][12]. - **By Power Type**: In passenger cars, traditional fuel, hybrid, and new energy vehicles sold 157,000, 17,000, and 220,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 0.8%, 17.7%, and 19.7%, accounting for 39.8%, 4.4%, and 55.9% of passenger cars. In new energy passenger cars, pure - electric, plug - in hybrid, and extended - range vehicles sold 133,000, 59,000, and 28,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 17.1%, 15.6%, and 46.4%, accounting for 60.5%, 27.0%, and 12.5% [17]. - **By Production Attribute**: In passenger cars, domestic and joint - venture brands sold 257,000 and 137,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 20.6% and - 4.4%, accounting for 65.3% and 34.8%. In new energy passenger cars, domestic and joint - venture brands sold 197,000 and 23,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 24.0% and - 8.1%, accounting for 89.6% and 10.4% [17]. 3.2 Key New Energy Automakers' Sales Analysis 3.2.1 BYD - **Weekly Sales**: 59,000 units, with BYD brand selling 53,000 units, Denza and Fangchengbao about 3,000 units each, and Yangwang 37 units [23]. - **Business Strategy**: Stopped producing fuel vehicles in March 2022. Since March this year, it released the super e - platform and launched new models. On May 23rd, it announced price cuts of up to 53,000 yuan for 22 models. The 2025 sales target is 5.5 million units. The sales of pure - electric and plug - in hybrid (including extended - range) models are evenly split [23]. 3.2.2 Geely Auto - **Weekly Sales**: 39,000 units, with 25,000 new energy vehicles (4,000 units from Zeekr). The electrification rate is about 64% [26]. - **Business Strategy**: In 2024, it released the "Taizhou Declaration". In 2025, it announced the acquisition of Zeekr. The 2025 sales target is 2.71 million units, with 2 million for Geely, 320,000 for Zeekr, and 390,000 for Lynk & Co. The new energy vehicle sales target is 1.5 million units [26]. 3.2.3 SAIC - GM - Wuling - **Weekly Sales**: 14,000 units, with 12,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate is about 87% [34]. - **Business Strategy**: This year, Wuling Hongguang launched an extended - range model, and Baojun launched the "Baojun Xiangjing" with plug - in hybrid and pure - electric options, but pure - electric models dominate sales [34]. 3.2.4 Chang'an Auto - **Weekly Sales**: 20,000 units, with 12,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate is about 58%. Its new energy brands Shenlan and Qiyuan each sold about 4,000 units, and Avatr sold over 2,000 units [39]. 3.2.5 Chery Auto - **Weekly Sales**: 20,000 units, with 7,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate is about 37%. Its new energy brands iCAR, Chery New Energy, and Zhijie each sold over 1,000 units [47]. 3.2.6 Tesla - **Weekly Sales**: 11,000 units in China, with Model 3 and Model Y selling over 3,000 and over 7,000 units respectively. Sales have strong seasonal fluctuations, with a significant week - on - week increase but little year - on - year growth [53]. - **Business Strategy**: This year, Tesla launched multiple promotions, including a "record - breaking discount package" for Model 3 after the Spring Festival and new offers in April [53]. 3.2.7 New - Force Automakers - **Sales**: Li Auto sold about 10,000 units, Wenjie 9,000 units, Leapmotor, Xiaomi, and NIO 7,000 units each, XPeng 6,000 units, and Aion 5,000 units. Most of Li Auto's sales are from the L series. Wenjie's sales have increased significantly, with the M8 launched and delivered recently [57].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts due to high economic uncertainty and inflation risks, leading to a stronger US dollar index [12][17][18]. - The market for various commodities and financial products shows different trends, with some facing downward pressure and others in a state of narrow - range oscillation [3][27][31]. - Different industries have different investment outlooks, and corresponding investment suggestions are provided based on their fundamentals [14][19][21]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts, waiting for clearer impacts of Trump's tariff policies. The US International Trade Court blocked Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff, increasing the downward pressure on gold prices. Short - term gold prices may continue to fall, and it is recommended to reduce positions [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump mentioned the possibility of reaching a new nuclear deal with Iran in the next few weeks. The Fed is patient about interest rate adjustments due to economic uncertainties. The US dollar index is expected to strengthen in the short term [15][17][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 2155 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 585 billion yuan. Insurance redemptions of bond funds had a limited impact on the bond market. The bond market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillation, and it is recommended to go long in the medium - term and collect low - cost chips [20][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - NVIDIA's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, but H20 chip restrictions led to asset impairments and reduced revenue expectations. The Fed is worried about price increases. The US stock market is still in a state of oscillation due to concerns about government debt sustainability and tariff risks [22][23][24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - From January to April, the total profit of state - owned enterprises decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. The market continued a dull trend of narrow - range oscillation with shrinking trading volume, and it is recommended to allocate assets evenly [25][27][28]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - It is expected that the domestic soybean crushing volume in June will reach 9.805 million tons. Brazil's DDGS and peanut meal are allowed to be imported. Overnight US soybeans closed lower, and domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable with a slight decline. It is expected that futures prices will oscillate, and the spot market will remain under pressure [29][31][32]. 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in northern ports remained stable. Although power plants are replenishing stocks before summer, the supply is also abundant. The coal price is expected to continue to decline after a short - term stabilization [33]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - From May 1st to 25th, the retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year. The demand for iron ore decreased seasonally, and the price is expected to continue to decline with potential inventory accumulation in June [34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of high - fructose corn syrup increased, while the operating rate of corn starch decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [35][36][37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in northern ports decreased, and the southern port's domestic corn inventory increased slightly. Corn prices are expected to rise in the future, but currently, the spot market is stagnant. Attention should be paid to feed mills' inventory - building and wheat's policy - based procurement in June [38][39]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - From May 1st to 25th, the retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year. Brazil extended and expanded steel import quota measures. The CMI index showed that the domestic construction machinery market was in a transition from peak to off - peak. Steel prices are expected to remain weak, and it is recommended to be cautious in short - term unilateral trading and use a spot hedging strategy [41][43][44]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Atico Mining signed a 30 - year mining right for the El Roble copper/gold mine. KAZ Minerals' Q1 copper production decreased year - on - year. The Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts and the strengthening of the US dollar index may suppress copper prices. It is recommended to wait and see [45][47][49]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Guizhou started to resume production. The spot and long - term supply of alumina are insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see [50][51]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increased on May 28th. The decline in nickel prices may be related to rumors of increased Indonesian nickel ore quotas, concerns about cost reduction due to electricity price reforms, and weakening demand in the new energy vehicle market. It is not recommended to chase short positions, and bottom - fishing should be done with a light position [52][53][54]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Thailand stopped investment incentives for the photovoltaic industry. Polysilicon cash is in serious loss, and the inventory of some downstream silicon wafer factories is insufficient. The impact of leading enterprises' production cuts on the fundamentals is significant. It is recommended to consider going long on far - month contracts at low prices and gradually take profits on positive spreads [56][57][58]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A North China organic silicon monomer enterprise plans to conduct maintenance. Supply pressure is increasing, while demand has no obvious improvement. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions and pay attention to large enterprises' cash - flow risks [59]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - SQM withdrew from the lithium ore exploration project in Western Australia. The current dominant logic is the downward spiral of salt and ore prices. In the short term, the decline space is limited, and it is recommended to partially take profits or roll over previous short positions [60][61][61]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The price of waste batteries stabilized. The supply of lead is expected to be tight in the short term, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to medium - term low - buying opportunities [62][63]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount. The supply of zinc is expected to be loose in the future, and demand is weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities at high prices and consider long - term positive spreads [64]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of ether - post C4 in Shandong was stable. The supply of liquefied petroleum gas decreased due to refinery maintenance. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [65][66][67]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ will use 2025 oil production as the 2027 production benchmark. The oil price is expected to have weak upward momentum in the short term [68][69][70]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased. The supply is stable, and demand is good. The alumina market's impact on caustic soda is weakening, and the futures market is expected to oscillate [71]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable. The futures market was in a weak - range operation. It is expected that the pulp futures will oscillate [72][75]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased slightly. The futures market oscillated downward. It is expected that the PVC futures will oscillate [76]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene and pure benzene in East China ports increased. The price of styrene decreased. It is recommended to be cautious about the far - month trend of pure benzene and styrene [77][78][79]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips was stable, and the market transaction was average. The industry has high production, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to supply changes [80][81]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe was in a low - level oscillation. The supply is expected to be stable, and demand is weak. Short - term maintenance may support the price, but it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - term [82]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Jiangsu was stable. The futures and spot markets were weak. It is expected that the glass futures will remain in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [83][84]. 2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Vietnam may impose tariffs on e - commerce imports. The container freight rate index was affected by sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities during price corrections [85][86].

热点报告-鸡蛋 n[Table_Title] 上半年反套结构的确立，下半年交易维度的增 加 [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 报告日期： ★[Ta近bl期e_：Su曲mm折a下ry]行 农 2025 上半年，鸡蛋市场呈"供给逐步释放、需求复苏有限、价格 曲折下行"的市场特征。从现货价格走势来看，据钢联农产品，1-5 月，主产区月均价由 1 月的 4.22 元/斤一路下跌至 3.30 元/斤附近。 趋势上，价格的下跌背后来自高存栏基数的助推；而从不一直那么 顺畅下跌的角度来看，各个节假日前后现货波动则围绕需求展开。 其中春节与五一前后现货的变化进一步带动盘面跟随，而产生大幅 调整。近期，鸡蛋期货呈偏弱走势，5 月初盘面的小幅上行来自现 货的短暂反弹，而后再度回归交易供应偏多现实，盘面大幅下行。 产 ★ 交易重心将逐渐发生转移 农产品-鸡蛋-热点报告 2025-5-28 品 我们在鸡蛋 6、7 月合约偏空的看法主要来自于过剩的市场供应， 一方面存栏基数偏高，另一方面养殖端淘汰进程暂缓且淘鸡价格偏 高。交易重心将逐渐往需求倾斜。从历史走势来看，蛋价呈现出极 其典型的季节性特点，尤其在二季度末至三季度初。一般来说， ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Key Container Ports and Critical Hub Monitoring 20250528 [1] - Research Institute: Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute - Department: Black and Shipping Department - Analyst: Lan Xi - Qualification Numbers: F03086543 (从业资格号), Z0016590 (投资咨询号) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core View - The report monitors the operating conditions of key container ports around the world, including average berthing times, number of ships at anchor and in berth, and large ship arrival situations. It notes that domestic main ports in Asia have high average ship stay times, and it's uncertain whether the surge in Sino - US goods will worsen port congestion. Some ports in Europe face congestion due to issues like strikes and labor shortages, while North American ports are operating well, but the impact of subsequent dense cargo arrivals on congestion needs attention [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data点评 - **Asian Ports**: Yangshan, Waigaoqiao, Ningbo, Qingdao, Singapore, and Port Klang are monitored. Domestic main ports in Asia have high average ship stay times, and it's uncertain whether the Sino - US goods surge will worsen congestion. Port Klang is over - loaded with congestion worsening, with an average ship stay of about 2 days [2] - **European Ports**: Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, Bremen, and Valencia are monitored. Some ports in Northwest Europe still have congestion problems and common ship delays due to intermittent strikes, cargo backlogs, and labor shortages [2] - **North American Ports**: Long Beach, Los Angeles, Tacoma, New York, Savannah, Norfolk, and Houston are monitored. North American ports are operating well, and attention should be paid to whether subsequent dense cargo arrivals will cause congestion [2] 3.2 Data Overview - The table shows the average stay times of key container ports, including the latest period, monthly average, year - on - year, and month - on - month data for various ports in Asia, Europe, and the Americas [6] 3.3 Asian Port Dynamic Tracking - It presents data on the scale of container ships in ports in China and Southeast Asia, including the number of ships at anchor and in berth, and the average stay times of ocean - going ships in different ports over time [8][12][17] 3.4 European Port Dynamic Tracking - It shows the scale of container ships in European ports, including Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean/Black Sea regions. Data on the number of ships at anchor and in berth, and the average stay times of ocean - going ships in different ports are also provided [20][22][27] 3.5 North American Port Dynamic Tracking - It monitors the number of container ships at anchor and in berth in North American ports, the scale of container ships in ports, and the average stay times of ocean - going ships in different ports [35][39][40] 3.6 Large Ship Arrival Situation and Key Hub Monitoring - It tracks the arrival situations of large container ships in Yangshan, Ningbo, and Singapore ports. It also shows the arrival situations of 1.2w+ container ships of different alliances in Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean regions, as well as the passage conditions of container ships through the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal [44][47][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded, with the gold price dropping by over 1% and briefly falling below the $3000 mark. The US and EU are in trade negotiations, and although the risk of high - tariff imposition remains, the market is expecting a deal. The short - term trend of gold is volatile, and a new upward trend awaits a catalyst [11]. - The US consumer confidence index has risen, and the stock market has responded positively. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks persist, and the US stock market remains in a volatile state [20]. - For commodities, different products have different outlooks. For example, copper is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term, while crude oil prices are affected by the OPEC+ meeting and are trending downward [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Florida has recognized gold and silver as legal tender. The EU and the US are in trade negotiations, and the gold price has dropped by over 1% and briefly fallen below $3000 due to the progress of the negotiations. The short - term gold price is volatile, and there is a risk of further decline [11]. - Investment advice: Be aware of the short - term decline risk and increased market volatility [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japan's Ministry of Finance is considering reducing the issuance of ultra - long - term bonds, causing the yen to rebound and the US dollar index to rise in the short term [15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 448 billion yuan, with a net injection of 91 billion yuan. The decline in the bond market may be due to institutional behavior. The long - term view on the bond market remains positive, and a strategy of buying on dips and holding is recommended [17]. - Investment advice: Be bullish in the medium - term, and buy at appropriate times to accumulate low - cost positions [18]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US consumer confidence index in May rose to 98.0, but the durable goods orders in April decreased by 6.3% month - on - month. The market risk appetite has improved, and the three major stock indexes have risen significantly. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks remain, and the US stock market remains volatile [19][20]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [20]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai from June 18th to 19th. The profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and the single - month growth rate in April rebounded to 3%. However, the revenue growth rate has declined, indicating that the boost from export rush to demand is less than expected [21][22]. - Investment advice: Adopt a balanced allocation strategy [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in June is about 10.5625 million tons, and the expected arrivals in July and August are 11 million tons and 9 million tons respectively. The US soybean planting rate is 76%, and the export inspection volume is at the lower end of the market expectation. The Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, and the domestic soybean meal spot price is mixed [24][25]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a volatile mindset and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US relations [25]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in Ordos is stable. Towards the end of the month, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production, and the supply has tightened slightly. The power plant's daily coal consumption has increased slightly year - on - year, and the port coal price has stabilized at a low level. However, considering the high - level supply and the impact of new energy on summer consumption, the coal price is expected to decline in the future [26][27]. - Investment advice: Expect the coal price to decline in the future [27]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron and steel industry's profit from January to April was 1.692 billion yuan. The iron ore price is in a weak and volatile state. The terminal steel product price has broken through the key support level, and the market sentiment is poor. The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - Australia has launched an anti - dumping review of Chinese rebar. The steel price has continued to decline due to the expected weakening of demand and the collapse of the cost side. The market is in a negative feedback state, and the unilateral operation should be cautious [30]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term unilateral operations and consider hedging on spot price rebounds [31]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The domestic corn starch spot price is stable at a high level, and the market trading is flexible. The starch inventory has not changed much, and the downstream starch sugar demand is expected to increase seasonally. The regional price difference between North China and Northeast China is high but may decline slightly [32]. - Investment advice: The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [33]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn spot price is stable. The inventory of corn in Northeast China is low, and the trading is light. However, feed mills are expected to start restocking in June, which may drive up the price of corn and wheat. The corn price is expected to rise in the future [34]. - Investment advice: Both the corn spot and futures prices are expected to rise, and pay attention to the restocking of feed mills and wheat procurement policies in June [35]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Guizhou has partially resumed production. The alumina price has shown some changes in different regions, and the mineral price is firm [36][37]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [38]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The IEA warns that the global demand for refined copper will increase significantly before 2050, while the supply will decline. Some copper mines have production issues. The short - term copper price is affected by the strengthening US dollar index and is expected to trade in a high - level range [39][40][42]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage operations [43]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon spot price has slightly declined, and there are many market rumors. The production schedule for May and June is known, and the inventory situation varies among downstream enterprises. The decision of leading enterprises on production cuts will affect the market trend [45]. - Investment advice: Unilateral operations are risky. Consider taking profits on the PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508 positive spreads [46]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some enterprises are building new industrial silicon furnaces, and some organic silicon plants are in the maintenance period. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The industrial silicon price lacks the impetus to rebound [47][49]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions and be aware of the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's nickel sulfide exports in March have increased. The LME has increased inventory, and the SHFE has decreased inventory. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be sufficient this year, but the price is supported by factors such as the rainy season. The nickel market is currently calm, and some enterprises have a willingness to cut production [50]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term and look for opportunities to short on rebounds in the medium term [51]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Chile is expected to start production in 2032. A domestic company plans to conduct futures hedging. The current market is dominated by the downward spiral of salt and ore prices, but the approaching delivery of the main contract and salt - factory maintenance may provide short - term support [52][55]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions or roll over contracts and be aware of price fluctuations during the contract roll - over [55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The refined - scrap lead price difference has narrowed. The primary lead production is stable, while the secondary lead production is affected by high costs and raw material shortages. The demand from battery factories is weak, but the lead inventory has decreased. The lead price may have a low - level buying opportunity in the medium term [56][57]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and start looking for medium - term low - level buying opportunities [57]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A company's zinc concentrate production in the first quarter has decreased. The supply of zinc is expected to be loose in the future, while the demand is weak. The zinc price is recommended to be shorted [58]. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to short on price increases and consider selling options. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for spreads and a long - short arbitrage strategy for the domestic - foreign market [59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ is trying to balance the market. The oil price has declined, and the market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting results. An oversupply risk may suppress the oil price [5][60]. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [60]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price has declined slightly and is in a narrow - range trading phase. The overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emissions in 2025 is expected to be loose, and the price may be under pressure [61][62]. - Investment advice: The CEA price is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term [63]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis has strengthened. The demand is at a high level, and the supply is below 80%, with inventory being depleted. The cost side is also favorable. The PTA price is expected to be stronger than the oil price [64]. - Investment advice: The PTA price and spreads are expected to remain strong in the short term [65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased. The supply is stable, and the demand from the alum - industry is good. However, the impact of the alum market on caustic soda is waning, and the caustic soda price may trade in a range [66]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda price is expected to trade in a range, and the alum market's impact has diminished [66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp price has declined. The market is in a weak state, and the price is expected to trade in a range [67]. - Investment advice: The pulp price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [68]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has declined, and the futures price is volatile. The downstream procurement has increased, and the market has improved slightly. The PVC price is expected to trade in a range [69]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [69]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has decreased, and the market trading is light. The industry is operating at a high level, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate at a low level [70][73]. - Investment advice: The bottle - chip processing margin is expected to remain low, and pay attention to supply - side changes [73]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is in a low - level range, and the futures price has declined due to new capacity. The spot market is weak, and the demand is sluggish [73]. - Investment advice: Short - term maintenance may support the price, but maintain a short - selling view in the medium term [74]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The glass futures price has risen due to rumors of production line shutdowns. The spot market is generally stable, with different regions showing different trends. The glass price is expected to remain in a low - level range [75]. - Investment advice: The glass price is expected to remain low, and pay attention to real - estate policy changes [75]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - A shipping line's express service has resumed. The European container freight rate is in a price - holding period, and there may be a second price increase in mid - to - late June. The US line's rush - shipping expectation has subsided [76][77]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on price dips due to market sentiment fluctuations [77].

热点报告-金融工程 [★Tab事le_件Su：mImC、aryI]M 持续深度贴水 2025 年以来，股指期货贴水多次走阔，近期 IC、IM 贴水持 续维持历史高位，引发市场关注。截止 5 月 26 日，IC、IM 剔除 分红当季合约年化贴水率分别为 10.6%、15.3%，对应两年百分位 分别为 3.6%、2.4%。 风险中性定价原理（risk-neutral valuation） [Table_Title] 如何看待 IC&IM 当前的深贴水？ ★ 后续基差展望与策略建议 ★ 贴水原因分析 分析深贴水持续有 3 个主要因素： 一是多头套保资金的缺失。挂钩股指的结构化产品经历了持续 的敲出和到期，且新发受限，存续规模维持低位，仅有 2023 年最大 规模的约 1/4 到 1/3 。 金 融 工 程 二是中性策略套保需求维持稳定。今年以来小市值跑赢大盘， 中证2000指数相对中证1000指数取得累计超额收益7.7%，指增alpha 普遍表现较好；股指期货维持深度贴水的情况下，空头持有远季合 约对冲成本可控，例如 IC 持有当季合约对冲今年以来已兑现对冲成 本接近 0，叠加基差管理策略的中性策略可以取得较好表现 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 欧美谈判延期，俄乌冲突短期或难以停止 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-27 宏观策略（黄金） 欧美继续谈判 黄金震荡收跌，由于美国阵亡将士纪念日休市，市场交易较为 清淡，特朗普对欧盟的关税威胁改口延期，双方继续谈判，市 场避险情绪有所缓解，黄金延续震荡走势。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普称普京"完全疯了" 正考虑对俄追加制裁 综 特朗普对于普京的表态意味着美国将转变思路，或许加大对于 俄罗斯的制裁，俄乌冲突短期难以停止。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 穆迪决定维持中国主权信用评级不变 报 A 股市场持续缩量，小盘与大盘风格再度呈现跷跷板效应，小盘 修复，大盘下跌。但市场高昂的风险偏好和自身脆弱结构之间 的差距也在不断拉大。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 5 月 1-25 日马来西亚棕榈油出口量环比增加 7.34% 国内棕榈油去库，马棕产量基本持平 能源化工（原油） OPEC+会议将提前一天进行 油价震荡略回落，关注本周末 OPEC+会议结果。 | 吴梦吟 | 资深分析师 | （宏观策略） | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Ana ...

周度报告——光伏玻璃 终端需求持续缩减，光伏玻璃价格弱势运行 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/5/23 当周）： 截至 5 月 23 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 13.5 元/平米，环比上周持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 21.5 元/平米，亦环比上周持平。 上周光伏玻璃供给端基本稳定，仅有一条产线引头子出玻璃，暂 无新线投产。预计本周市场供给仍保持稳定状态，暂无厂家计划 新投窑炉。 能 源 上周终端需求持续缩减，组件厂家订单减少，光伏玻璃订单基本 处于交付尾期。预计本周需求表现仍偏弱，光伏玻璃厂家销量承 压。 化 工 当前光伏玻璃订单基本处于交付尾期，由于终端需求持续缩减， 上周光伏玻璃厂家库存继续上涨，目前行业库存已经重回高位。 ★ 供需分析： [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 5 月 26 日 | 曹璐 | 资深分析师(化工) | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F3013434 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0013049 | | Tel: | 8621-63325888-3521 | | Email: | lu.cao@orie ...

周度报告——商品期货 商品 ETF 配置周报： 商品整体反弹空间或受限 目前，产业利润指数已接近极值位置。基于产业利润和通胀的 同步性特征，综合性商品指数短期进一步修复的空间或受限。 | | 多配属性 | | --- | --- | | 工业品指数 | — | | 大成有色 ETF | ⭐ | | 建信易盛能源化工 ETF | — | | 华夏豆粕饲料 ETF | ⭐⭐ | [T报ab告le_日Ra期nk：] 2025 年 5 月 26 日 [Table_Summary] ★前言 作为投资门槛低、且可多元化配置的通胀类资产，商品 ETF 的 配置需求日益增长。配置步骤包括，基于产业驱动强弱差异筛 选、优化组合；采用滚动 PCA 因子确定的风险暴露进行配置， 以模拟甚至超越综合性商品指数（即通胀）的中长期走势，在 此基础上进行主观系统化择时以优化组合风险收益特征。 ★宏观驱动及市场风格轮动 商 品 2025 年 5 月 23 日当周，市场风格回归避险逻辑，贵金属、期债 及农产品强于工业品。周内，华夏豆粕饲料 ETF 录得正收益， 两支工业品属性的商品 ETF 均录得负收益，其中大成有色 ETF 相对抗跌。 货 ...