格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 5 月 22 日星期四 早盘提示 Morning session notice | 【市场逻辑】 1-4 月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长 4.0%，市场预期 4.3%，1-3 月份为 4.2%。4 月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长 5.1%，市场预期 5.5%，3 月同比增长 5.9%。4 | | --- | | 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 6.1%，市场预期增长 5.2%，一季度同比 | | 增长 6.5%。中国 4 月以美元计价出口同比增长 8.1%，市场预估为增长 2.0%，3 月 | | 增长 12.4%。4 月份中国出口东盟增长 20.8%，3 月增长 11.55%；4 月出口美国同比 | | 下降 21.03%，3 月增长 9.09%。因关税影响，4 月中国对美出口出现大幅下降，对 | | 东盟出口增长加速，可能存在转出口因素。4 月固定资产投资和消费略不及预期， | | 工业生产和出口好于市场预期，4 月的经济增长保持韧性。5 月 12 日中美日内瓦经 | | 贸会谈联合声明发布之后，美线航运出现"抢运潮"。中美经贸会 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish outlook on the four major stock indices in the long - term, suggesting investors to look past short - term fluctuations. The specific ratings for stock index futures are: IH (long), IF (long), IM (slightly long), IC (slightly long) [1][2] Core View - The decline in deposit rates below 1% continues to be positive for the market. The reduction of deposit rates by the six major banks is expected to drive household savings and insurance funds into the stock market. The market style is expected to shift towards the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The global re - allocation of financial assets will prompt overseas institutional funds to pour into the A - share market [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets strengthened. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.17 trillion yuan, with little change. The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2728 points, up 11 points or 0.43%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 3916 points, up 18 points or 0.47%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5757 points, up 10 points or 0.18%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6132 points, down 13 points or - 0.23%. Among industry and theme ETFs, gold stock ETFs, non - ferrous 50 ETFs, coal ETFs, battery ETFs, and new energy vehicle ETFs led the gains, while semiconductor leading ETFs, machine tool ETFs, and chip ETFs led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, precious metals, batteries, commercial vehicles, coal mining, and industrial metals indices led the gains, while PEEK materials, general equipment, aquatic products, industrial mother machines, and industrial software indices led the losses. The futures settlement funds of the CSI 1000, CSI 300, and Shanghai 50 indices had net outflows of 900 million, 500 million, and 100 million yuan respectively [1] Important Information - The central bank will support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, private small and micro - enterprises, and foreign trade stability, and improve the quality and efficiency of financial support for the real economy [1] - On May 20, China and ASEAN announced the full completion of the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 [1] - Due to the rush - out effect in the sprint window period, shipping companies have raised prices. The quotation for 40 - foot containers (FEU) on the Shanghai - US West Line in mid - June has reached $9100, more than three times the average price of about $2250 at the beginning of May [1] - Dalio said that inappropriate interest - rate cuts would have a negative impact on the bond market, leading to higher long - term interest rates, a weaker US dollar, and a rising gold price [1] - The annual inflation rate in the UK in April reached 3.5%, higher than analysts' expectations [1] - The Japanese bond market had no bids for the second consecutive day, and the yields of 30 - year and 40 - year Japanese government bonds reached record highs, with the 20 - year government bond yield reaching 2.57%, the highest since October 2000 [1] - The St. Louis Fed President pointed out that the Fed needs to prevent the rise of inflation expectations [1] - COT data shows that there has been large - scale short - selling in the US stock market, reaching $11.1 billion, with hedge funds as the main short - sellers. The cumulative short - selling amount of hedge funds in the last three COT reports reached $25 billion, the largest in at least a decade [2] - The open - interest data of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) confirms that a large number of positions are betting that the 10 - year Treasury yield will rise to 5% in the coming weeks [2] - Institutions predict that the tax - cut bill will increase public debt by at least $3.3 trillion by the end of 2034, raising the debt - to - GDP ratio from the current 100% to a record 125% [2] - Multiple US officials said that Israel is preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, which may trigger a wider regional conflict in the Middle East [2] Market Logic - On Wednesday, the value - related indices of the two markets continued to strengthen, and the reduction of deposit rates was still positive for the market. The six major banks lowered RMB deposit rates. The three - month, six - month, one - year, and two - year fixed - deposit rates were all cut by 15 basis points to 0.65%, 0.85%, 0.95%, and 1.05% respectively; the three - year and five - year rates were cut by 25 basis points to 1.25% and 1.3% respectively. The one - year deposit rate falling below 1% is expected to drive household savings and insurance funds into the stock market, and free - cash - flow ETFs strengthened collectively [1][2] Future Outlook - The value - related indices of the two markets continued to strengthen on Wednesday, and the reduction of deposit rates continued to be positive for the market. In 2024, A - share listed companies paid a total of 2.4 trillion yuan in dividends and repurchased shares worth 147.6 billion yuan, both hitting record highs, and the dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index was close to 3.6%. The one - year deposit rate cut to 0.95% is expected to accelerate the transfer of household savings and insurance funds to the stock market. Free - cash - flow ETFs and dividend - based ETFs are expected to benefit the most. The global re - allocation of financial assets will drive overseas institutional funds to pour into the A - share market. The market is expected to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The four major indices are bullish in the long - term, and short - term fluctuations should be ignored [2] Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading: With the one - year deposit rate falling below 1%, household savings and insurance funds are expected to flow into the stock market. The market style is expected to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The four major stock indices are bullish in the long - term, and short - term fluctuations should be ignored [2] - For stock index option trading: The market is in a consolidation phase to repair technical indicators. It is recommended to suspend far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options [2]

海关总署数据显示,2025年4月,中国进口统焦煤889万吨,同比下降18.8%;1-4月累计进口3633万吨,同比下降4%。 格林大华0351团队点评:一如我们在2025年进口煤数据和编库模数据解读中强调的:"随着国内煤集价格的不断下跌，进口量与去年同期相比出现了放缓 的态势，表明了不断走低的价格开始影响进口边际变化"。4月席焦煤进口量出现同比下降，更重要的是累计进口量同比下降近4%。这也是近5年以来首次 同期旅焦煤进口量的下降。当2025年的烧焦煤价格回到2022年4月爆发前的低价区间时，钢厂商盈利状况已经是前半年回到了盈利区间（根据统计局公布的 黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业单月利润）。 煤焦数据快讯—2025年1-4月炼焦煤进口量数据 5月21日 2020-2025年中国炼焦煤进口累计值(万吨) 2020-2025年中国炼焦煤月度进口量(万吨) 14000 12385 1400 1231 1230 12000 1200 1095 1000 10000 1000 8000 800 6000 3633 3784 600 4000 400 2000 200 2月 5月 7月 8月 10月 11月 12月 1月 3月 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the alumina industry chain is "Oscillating Bullish" for caustic soda and alumina, and "Oscillating" for aluminum [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - In the alumina industry chain, caustic soda prices are expected to continue a small - scale oscillating upward trend in the short term; alumina prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short term; and aluminum prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract oscillated downward during the day and continued to decline at night, closing at 2513 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton or 1.87%. Trading volume was 614,700 lots, a significant decrease from the previous trading day; open interest was 200,800 lots, an increase of 14,213 lots; turnover was 47.285 billion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous trading day [1] - **Important Information**: Weekly caustic soda operating rate was 85.97%, a 0.68% increase from the previous week; weekly domestic production was 835,100 tons, a 0.68% increase; weekly domestic factory inventory was 256,000 tons, a 2.77% increase; cost per 100% caustic soda was 1,800.96 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decrease; gross profit per 100% caustic soda was 1,202.22 yuan/ton, a 1.04% increase [1] - **Market Logic**: The average price of the domestic 32% liquid caustic soda market was 953.91 yuan/ton, up 3.38 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous working day. The domestic liquid caustic soda market average price increased, with different trends in futures and spot. The supply in the industry is relatively sufficient, and downstream receiving is stable. Non - aluminum downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the alumina market's demand is driven by the price improvement [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell put options [1] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract was weakly running during the day and oscillated narrowly at night, closing at 3111 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton or 1.18%. Trading volume was 2,165,900 lots, a slight decrease from the previous trading day; open interest was 473,600 lots, an increase of 30,803 lots; turnover was 136.348 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous trading day [3] - **Important Information**: Last week, domestic alumina factory inventory was 158547 tons, a 0.02% decrease from the previous week; market inventory was 76,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. This week, domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 162,160 tons, a 0.96% decrease; the weekly operating utilization rate was 76.46%, a 0.96% decrease. The average reference production cash cost of the domestic alumina industry was 3198.36 yuan/ton, a 4.04% decrease; industry gross profit was - 239.07 yuan/ton, a 45.24% increase [3] - **Market Logic**: The spot market average price was 3059.85 yuan/ton, up 48.62 yuan/ton or 1.61% from the previous trading day. The Guinea incident continued to disrupt the market, with an expected decrease in ore supply, and alumina prices remained high. The market's operating capacity was always at a low level, resulting in a supply gap. There was an expected decrease in Guinea's ore supply and an expected increase in imported ore prices, increasing enterprise costs and leading to a reluctance to sell in the industry. The import market was relatively active, with the Australian FOB price at 367 US dollars/ton. China's alumina imports in April were 10705.49 tons, a 90.12% year - on - year decrease and a 4.16% month - on - month decrease; exports were 262875.89 tons, a 101.62% year - on - year increase and an 11.41% month - on - month decrease [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell put options [3] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day's futures main 2507 contract oscillated, jumped at the night - session opening and continued a small - scale upward trend, closing at 20185 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton or 0.62%. Trading volume was 182,300 lots, a slight decrease from the previous trading day; open interest was 515,900 lots, a decrease of 5569 lots; turnover was 18.285 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous trading day [4] - **Important Information**: Bauxite weekly production was 1.13 million tons, a 0.53% increase; electrolytic aluminum weekly production was 84.09 tons, a 0.02% increase. This week, the industry's production cost was 16894.59 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase; the industry's average gross profit was 3229.78 yuan/ton, a 12.27% increase. Factory inventory during the week was 53,000 tons, a 3.99% decrease; market inventory was 61,940 tons, a 5.13% decrease; LME inventory was 395,400 tons, a 0.46% decrease; SHFE inventory was 62,800 tons, a 1.6% decrease [4] - **Market Logic**: The Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson emphasized a wait - and - see attitude, advocating patience in adjusting interest rates. Coupled with the downward risk of the US economy, the outer - market aluminum price was affected. The domestic market was still waiting and seeing about the impact of tariff policies, and the market sentiment eased after domestic banks lowered deposit rates. There were both bullish and bearish news in the current industry, but domestic macro - policies would continue to drive market demand, and the overall domestic market sentiment was good [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell put options [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Macro and Financial - Treasury Bonds: Bullish (Slightly) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On May 19th, the National Bureau of Statistics released April's major macro - economic data. Overall, April's economic growth was relatively stable, with fixed - asset investment and consumption slightly below expectations, while industrial production and exports were better than market expectations. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks on May 12th, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping. The 90 - day window period brought a short - term respite to the market, but long - term uncertainties remain. On Monday, treasury bond futures rose overall, and the news that state - owned banks will cut deposit rates is favorable for the bulls. Treasury bond futures may be bullish in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2506 rose 0.37%, the 10 - year T2506 rose 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2506 rose 0.04%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.02% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Monday, the central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 43 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 92 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Monday, short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funds market declined compared to the previous trading day. DR001's weighted average for the day was 1.54% (1.63% the previous day), and DR007's weighted average was 1.60% (1.64% the previous day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly declined compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 1.04 BP to 1.46%, the 5 - year fell 0.98 BP to 1.57%, the 10 - year rose 1.00 BP to 1.69%, and the 30 - year fell 1.70 BP to 1.86% [1] - **Housing Market**: In April, the month - on - month price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% (from a 0.2% increase last month). Among them, Shanghai rose 0.1%, Guangzhou remained flat, and Beijing and Shenzhen decreased by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. Second - and third - tier cities' second - hand residential property prices decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, with the decline widening by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively compared to last month [1] - **Investment Data**: From January to April, national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year (market expectation: 4.26%, 4.2% from January to March). General infrastructure investment increased by 10.85% (market expectation: 10.0%, 11.5% from January to March, 9.19% in 2024). Narrow infrastructure investment increased by 5.8% (5.8% from January to March, 4.4% in 2024). Manufacturing investment increased by 8.8% (market expectation: 9.1%, 9.1% from January to March, 9.2% in 2024). Real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% (9.9% from January to March, 10.6% in 2024) [1] - **Sales Data**: From January to April, the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.8% year - on - year (3.0% from January to March), and the sales volume decreased by 3.2% (2.1% from January to March) [2] - **Industrial Data**: In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.2%, 6.5% in the first quarter, 5.8% in 2024). Manufacturing added value increased by 6.6% (7.1% in the first quarter, 6.1% in 2024). High - tech manufacturing increased by 10.0% (slightly lower than 10.7% in March, higher than 8.9% in 2024) [2] - **Consumption and Employment Data**: In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.5%, 5.9% in March). The national service production index increased by 6.0% (6.3% in March). The national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [2] - **Interest Rate Adjustment**: It is reported that many state - owned large - scale banks and some joint - stock banks will lower the listed RMB deposit interest rates again starting from May 20th [2] 3.3 Market Logic - Overall, April's economic growth was relatively stable. Fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations, while industrial production and exports were better than market expectations. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the 90 - day window period brought short - term relief, but long - term uncertainties remain. The release of April's macro - economic data on Monday led to an overall rise in treasury bond futures, and the news of the deposit rate cut is favorable for the bulls, making treasury bond futures likely to be bullish in the short term [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Morning session notice 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 5 月 20 日星期二 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 早盘提示 | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日 CJ509 合约收盘价 9025 元/吨，日跌幅 0.72%。CJ601 合约收盘价 9950 元/吨， 日跌幅 0.75%。 【重要资讯】 1.上周 36 家样本点物理库存在 10588 吨，较上周减少 92 吨，环比减少 0.86%，同 比增加 60.42%。 2.周末河北崔尔庄市场停车区到货 30 车，成品到货占比增多，昨日到货 8 车，客商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 按需采购成交在 4-5 成附近。参考特级 9.2 元/公斤，一级 8.3 元/公斤，二级 7.2 元/公斤，三级 6.1 元/公斤。 3.昨日广东如意坊市场到 6 车，早市成交 1 车左右。参考一级 8.90-9.10 元/公斤； | | | | | 二级 8.0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel products in the black building materials sector is "Oscillating and Slightly Weak" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the short - term macro - stimulus, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have returned to the previous oscillation range. The market is currently dominated by industry logic and expectations, and the market expectations are not optimistic. The supply of steel has increased recently, the export of steel in April continued to grow at a high rate, and the demand for construction steel and plate has shown a differentiation [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Report's Content Market Conditions - On Friday, the main contract of rebar 2510 closed at 3082, down 1.15%. The main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3226, down 0.95%. The main contract of stainless steel closed at 12925, down 0.54%. All closed down at night [1] Important Information - China's steel demand will remain in the peak platform range for a long time. It is predicted that the crude steel output will be 800 - 900 million tons in 2035 and about 800 million tons after 2050 [1] - In April 2025, China exported 1.59 million tons of steel bars, a year - on - year increase of 47.1%; from January to April, the cumulative export was 5.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.1% [1] - From January to April, the national water conservancy construction investment reached 294.36 billion yuan, and the water conservancy investment scale remained at a high level [1] - Russia's government has introduced a new shipbuilding industry development strategy, planning to build more than 1634 ships by 2036 and another 2637 ships by 2050 [1] - As of this week, the capacity utilization rate of independent electric furnace enterprises in the country was 56.57%, a month - on - month increase of 1.49 percentage points, basically the same as the same period last year [1] - From January to April 2025, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 15.32 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%; the new order volume was 30.69 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. As of the end of April, the order - on - hand volume was 229.78 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.6% [1] Market Logic - On Friday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated, and the trading volume was average. The impact of macro - factors on the market has weakened, and the market has returned to industry logic and expectations. The fundamentals show that last week, the output and apparent demand of rebar increased, and the inventory decreased. The output and inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased, and the apparent demand increased. Recently, the output of electric furnaces has increased significantly, and the supply of steel has increased. The export of steel in April continued to grow at a high rate, and after the relaxation of Sino - US tariffs, the export is expected to perform well. The ship orders have continued to grow at a high rate, and the demand for medium and heavy plates is good. There is a differentiation in the demand for construction steel and plate [1] Trading Strategy - Wait for the direction to become clearer or conduct short - term operations [1]

Group 1: Copper Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1] Core View - The global trade environment has improved, and the inventories of LME and SHFE copper have been continuously decreasing. The copper trade pattern is being reshaped, and the tight domestic supply supports copper prices. However, the resumption of US scrap copper imports to China suppresses copper prices. In an environment of supply shortages, loose domestic macro - economy, and increased structural investment, copper demand is expected to remain strong, and copper prices will continue to oscillate with a bullish bias [1] Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market Review**: Copper prices found support and strengthened. LME copper futures rose 0.08% to 9600, SHFE copper main contract rose 0.8% to 78490, and COMEX copper main contract rose 0.26% to 4.6935 [1] - **Important Information**: - US economic data: In April, US PPI increased 2.4% year - on - year (expected 2.5%, previous value revised from 2.70% to 3.4%), decreased 0.5% month - on - month (expected 0.20%, previous value revised from - 0.40% to 0%); the number of initial jobless claims last week was 229,000 (estimated 228,000, previous value 228,000); retail sales in April increased 0.1% month - on - month (estimated flat, previous value 1.5%) [1] - Fed's stance: On May 15, Fed Chairman Powell said they need to re - evaluate key factors in current monetary policy regarding employment and inflation due to past inflation and future supply shocks [1] - Scrap copper situation: With the temporary trade "truce agreement" between the US and China, a "copper mountain" of scrap copper in the US may start to move. In 2024, the US exported 600,000 tons of scrap copper, over half to China [1] - Copper rod orders: On May 15, the order volume of 31 domestic copper rod producers was 13,900 tons, up 8.40% from the previous day. The order volume of refined copper rods was 10,400 tons, up 26.39%, and that of recycled copper rods was 3,500 tons, down 23.78% [1] - Inventory changes: LME copper inventory decreased by 925 tons to 184,700 tons, SHFE copper inventory decreased by 8,602 tons to 80,705 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 1,523 tons to 168,600 tons [1] - **Market Logic**: The improvement of the global trade environment, the decline in copper inventories, and the strong domestic demand support copper prices, while the resumption of US scrap copper exports to China suppresses prices. Overall, copper prices will oscillate with a bullish bias [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in copper and add positions on dips. The range for LME copper is 9550 - 9700, and for SHFE copper main contract is 78200 - 79500 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly stated, but the market outlook implies a cautious stance [3] Core View - Although the tension in the international situation has cooled down, suppressing the safe - haven function of precious metals, factors such as the expectation of rising US inflation, uncertainties from tariffs, regional disputes, and continuous gold purchases by central banks support precious metal prices. Currently, precious metal prices have rebounded after finding support, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [3] Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market Review**: Precious metal prices found support and rebounded. COMEX gold futures rose 1.99% to 3243.9 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 1.23% to 32.79 dollars/ounce, SHFE gold main contract rose 1.96% to 754.32 yuan/gram, and SHFE silver main contract rose 1.57% to 8134 yuan/kilogram [3] - **Important Information**: - US economic data: Similar to the copper section, including PPI, initial jobless claims, and retail sales data [3] - Fed's stance: According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 91.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 8.3%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 63.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 34.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 2.6% [3] - International situation: Pakistan and India agreed to extend the cease - fire to the 18th [3] - ETF holdings: The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust had some fluctuations on May 14, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 28.28 tons to 13,971.47 tons as of May 14 [3] - **Market Logic**: The cooling of international tension suppresses precious metal prices, while inflation expectations, uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases support prices [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Keep a wait - and - see attitude. COMEX gold is expected to trade between 3210 - 3300 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver between 32.4 - 33.4 dollars/ounce, SHFE gold main contract between 742 - 767 yuan/gram, and SHFE silver main contract between 8080 - 8250 yuan/kilogram [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Weak Oscillation" rating for the coking coal and coke sectors in the black industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The delay of the tariff policy has boosted the sentiment in the black industry, but now the sentiment - based trading is basically completed. The spot prices of coking coal and coke are running weakly. Although the apparent demand of the five major steel products has rebounded this week, the pig iron output has begun to decline, and steel mills still have the intention to further lower the prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Review - The Jm2509 contract closed at 883.0, down 1.29% from the previous trading day's close. The J2505 contract closed at 1472.0, down 0.67% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, the Jm2509 contract closed at 864.5, down 2.10% from the day - session close, and the J2509 contract closed at 1456.0, down 1.09% from the day - session close [1] Important Information - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 883.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.82 million tons or 0.7%. The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1430.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45.41 million tons or 3.1%. The weekly consumption of the five major products was 913.76 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8%. Among them, the consumption of building materials increased by 16.2% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates increased by 5.2% week - on - week [1] - This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 89.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. The daily average output of raw coal was 200.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 million tons, and the raw coal inventory was 606.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 27.0 million tons [1] - Today, the first round of price cuts for coke began to be implemented, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The delay of the tariff policy has boosted the sentiment in the black industry, but now the sentiment - based trading is basically completed. The spot prices of coking coal and coke are running weakly. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi has been lowered again, there are more unsuccessful online auctions, and the transaction prices are mainly decreasing. The first round of price cuts for coke has basically been implemented. Although the apparent demand of the five major steel products has rebounded this week, the pig iron output has begun to decline. Steel mills still have the intention to further lower the prices. Attention should be paid to China's direct or indirect steel export data [1] Trading Strategy - In the short term, coking coal will mainly fluctuate widely in the range of 850 - 900, and coke will fluctuate in the range of 1440 - 1500. It will face pressure and fall back above the range. Short - term short positions can be held continuously [1]

联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日锰硅主力合约 SM2509 收于 5876，环比开盘价格上涨 0.2%。硅铁主力合约 SF2507 收于 5660，环比开盘价格下跌 0.32%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、本周，五大钢材品种供应 883.69 万吨，周环比下降 5.82 万吨，降幅 0.7%。五大 | | | | | 钢材总库存 1430.66 万吨，周环比降 45.41 万吨，降幅 3.1%。五大品种周消费量为 | | | | | 913.76 万吨，环比增加 8%；其中建材消费环比增 16.2%，板材消费环比增 5.2%。 | | | 硅铁锰 | | 2、5 月东北螺纹南下计划量为 36 万吨，同比增加 14.2 万吨、环比减少 0.7 万吨，盘 | | 黑色 | 硅 | 弱势震荡 | 线南下计划量 27.5 万吨，同比减少 6.6 万吨、环比减少 2 万吨。 | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | | 今日焦炭首轮提降基本 ...