更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 2 日 星期二 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、白银价格创下新高。中国白银库存降至 715.8 吨的七年新低。这一行情不仅反 | | | | 映 | 10 月份中国创纪录出口 660 吨白银引发的供需失衡，更印证供应驱动型涨价正 | | | | | 从贵金属向工业金属蔓延，成为大宗商品的普遍趋势。 | | | | | 2、半夏投资创始人李蓓表示，富人面临财富无处安放的资产荒。股市赚钱效应将 | | | | | 引发居民储蓄搬家、国内机构资产配置重构，更会触发全球资金重新配置、海外资 | | | | | 本回流中国市场的浪潮。这一轮行情非常可能会泡沫化，达到相当的高度。 | | | | | 3、马斯克表示，未来 SpaceX、特斯拉和 xAI ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 1 日星期一 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 上周五国债期货主力合约开盘集体高开，早盘小幅冲高后回落，午后横向窄幅波动， 截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.05%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.03%， 5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.03%，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.02%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：上周五央行开展了 3013 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 3750 亿元 逆回购到期，当日合计净回笼 737 亿元。 | | | | | 2 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The vegetable oil market shows a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil is the strongest, and long positions in the far - month contracts can continue to be held. Soybean oil has effective support at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and short - term long positions can be entered. Palm oil is the weakest, and long - term investors should wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound, while short - term rebound space is limited [1][3]. - In the protein market, after the main contract shift, the 05 contract of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows a strong trend. Long positions in the far - month 05 contracts can be held, but large increases are not expected due to sufficient supply [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On November 28, due to floods in Southeast Asia, the Malaysian palm oil price rose, driving the overall strength of the vegetable oil sector. The closing price of the soybean oil main contract Y2601 was 8244 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.24% and a daily decrease of 10124 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract Y2605 was 8040 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.47% and a daily increase of 11685 lots in positions. The closing price of the palm oil main contract P2601 was 8626 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 1.15% and a daily decrease of 33791 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract P2605 was 8678 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 1.02% and a daily decrease of 813 lots in positions. The closing price of the rapeseed oil main contract OI2601 was 9757 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.15% and a daily decrease of 5986 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract OI2605 was 9501 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.04% and a daily increase of 5853 lots in positions [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On November 26, international oil prices rebounded from a one - month low. The most actively traded January crude oil futures contract on NYMEX rose 0.70 US dollars or 1.21%, settling at 58.65 US dollars per barrel [1]. - The US government is considering delaying the proposed plan to cut import subsidies for biofuels by one to two years. The original plan was to take effect on January 1, 2026 [1]. - Flood warnings in Southeast Asia have made the market nervous as floods may disrupt palm oil harvesting and transportation [1]. - From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 5.49% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area increasing by 3.34% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.41% month - on - month [1]. - From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 987,978 tons, a 16.4% decrease compared to the same period in October [1]. - In October, India's palm oil imports dropped to the lowest level in five months, and the palm oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 16% to 7.56 million tons, the lowest in five years [1]. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.4348 million tons, a weekly increase of 23,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.96%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.40% [1]. - Research institution CGS International Research said that the vegetable oil market is supported by increased demand, which will lead to a further increase in the price of crude palm oil. It is also expected that the global biodiesel demand will grow strongly in 2026, providing structural support for global vegetable oil prices [3]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - In the external market, the US soybean market is expected to strengthen after adjustment, driving the recovery of US soybean oil. In the Malaysian market, floods and the fulfillment of previous negative factors have led to a significant increase. In the domestic market, although the supply of vegetable oil raw materials is sufficient and the inventory is good, the continuous loss of import and crushing profits of domestic oil mills has led to their willingness to support prices. The domestic rapeseed inventory is zero, and the rapeseed oil inventory is still being depleted [3]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading: For palm oil, short - term long positions can be taken during the rebound, and long - term short - selling opportunities can be waited for after the rebound. For soybean oil, a trading strategy based on the oscillation range is recommended, with long positions entered at the lower edge of the range. For rapeseed oil, a bullish view is taken, and long positions in the far - month contracts can be continued to hold. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [3]. - For arbitrage trading: No arbitrage strategies are recommended at present. 3.2 Protein Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On November 28, the US market was closed for Thanksgiving. After the main contract shift of domestic soybean meal, the near - month contract rose significantly without pressure, driving the overall protein sector to rise. The closing price of the soybean meal main contract M2601 was 3044 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.36% and a daily decrease of 48625 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract M2605 was 2845 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.25% and a daily increase of 46714 lots in positions. The closing price of the rapeseed meal main contract RM2601 was 2452 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.69% and a daily decrease of 18576 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract RM2605 was 2415 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.04% and a daily increase of 18772 lots in positions [3]. 3.2.2 Important Information - In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 4%, from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres [3]. - Since November 10, China has resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies [4]. - As of November 13, the sowing progress of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop was 71%, higher than 61% a week ago but lower than 80% in the same period last year [4]. - The consulting firm StoneX predicts that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean output may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the previous forecast of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [4]. - In the first three weeks of November, Brazil's soybean export pace was significantly higher than that of the same period last year [4]. - There are rumors that there are problems with the import procedures of Australian rapeseed, which may delay the crushing time. In addition, the Russian government has decided to cancel the railway transportation price reduction coefficient for food from 2026 [4]. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.78 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 0 tons, the same as the previous week [4]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - In the external market, the adjusted US soybean has attracted buyers, and the price has rebounded. In the domestic market, the overall supply - demand situation is stable, and feed enterprises maintain rigid demand replenishment. The rapeseed meal price has broken through the 2450 - yuan pressure level. Whether the price can further rise depends on the performance of the US soybean market after the resumption of trading [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading: Long positions in the far - month 05 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal can be continued to hold, and specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [4][5]. - For arbitrage trading: No arbitrage strategies are recommended at present.

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 1 日星期一 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货收涨 1.59%报 4256.4 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货收涨 6.06%报 57.085 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.97%报 959.82 元/克，沪银涨 5.17%报 13191 元/千 克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 11 月 28 日，全球最大的黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Trust 持仓量为 1045.43 吨， 较前一个交易日维持不变。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 增加 28.21 吨，当前持仓量为 15610.54 吨。。 2、据 CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 86.4%， 维持利率不变 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bullish [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market has an international supply situation with increased production in Brazil and a good harvest in the US. Domestically, new - cotton processing is faster, but textile companies are cautious about restocking due to weak orders and sufficient raw - material inventory. The recommended trading strategy is to close the long - call options on the 01 contract and hold the long - call options with a strike price of 13,500 yuan/ton on the 05 contract [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume is 284,007 lots, and the open interest is 954,257 lots. The settlement prices for January, May, and September are 13,635 yuan/ton, 13,595 yuan/ton, and 13,715 yuan/ton respectively. The ICE December contract settlement price is 62.77, up 34 points; the March contract is 64.57, up 34 points; the May contract is 65.75, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 35,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 24, spinning enterprises in the Bortala region of northern Xinjiang purchased new machine - picked cotton of grade 31, double 29, with impurity within 2.8%. The basis transaction price of the 2601 contract is 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price is 14,600 - 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 - 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - In August 2025, the US cotton product import volume was 1.499 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.68% [2] - As of November 16, the US cotton picking progress was 71%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [2] - In August 2025, the US textile and clothing import volume was 9.789 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%; the import value was 9.53 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 6.13% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [2] - On November 24, the trading volume and open interest of cotton yarn futures both increased, and the price rose while the spot price remained stable. Some spinning enterprises reported that the downstream sales had slowed down, the finished - product inventory had increased slightly, and the off - season atmosphere in the market had intensified [2] Market Logic - Internationally, Brazil's cotton production is expected to reach 4.11 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 11.1%), and the export shipment volume remains high; the US production has been adjusted up to 3.07 million tons, and the harvest progress is slightly faster than the annual average. Domestically, the new - cotton processing progress is faster than the same period last year, and the improved quality indicators have significantly increased the sales rate. However, textile enterprises are still cautious about restocking due to weak orders and sufficient raw - material inventory [2] Trading Strategy - Close the long - call options on the 01 contract and hold the long - call options with a strike price of 13,500 yuan/ton on the 05 contract [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is "oscillating bearish" [1] Core View - The overall performance of the coking coal spot market remained weak last week. The profitability of steel mills continued to shrink, production enthusiasm was average, and pig iron output declined steadily. The first round of price cuts in the coke market started last Friday and is expected to be implemented this week. The double - coking futures led the decline in the spot market. Although the downward range slowed down last week, there is obvious support below due to the winter storage expectation in December. In the short term, double - coking may oscillate [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the closing price of the coking coal main contract was 1,067.0 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.26%. The closing price of the coke main contract was 1,574.5 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.81% [1] Important Information - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1] - In October, the bond market issued a total of 635.746 billion yuan of various bonds. Treasury bonds issued 116.955 billion yuan, local government bonds issued 56.047 billion yuan, financial bonds issued 80.108 billion yuan, corporate credit - related bonds issued 118.362 billion yuan, credit asset - backed securities issued 3.434 billion yuan, and inter - bank certificates of deposit issued 256.49 billion yuan [1] - Shanxi officially released a new "Regulations on Ecological and Environmental Protection in Shanxi Province", which for the first time established a special chapter on "green and low - carbon development", clearly requiring the promotion of green and low - carbon transformation of energy, emission reduction and carbon reduction in key areas, and the establishment of a coal consumption total control system [1] Market Logic - Last week, the coking coal spot market was still weak. The profitability of steel mills continued to shrink, production enthusiasm was average, and pig iron output declined steadily. The first round of price cuts in the coke market started last Friday and is expected to be implemented this week. The double - coking futures led the decline in the spot market. The downward range slowed down last week, and there is obvious support below due to the winter storage expectation in December. In the short term, double - coking may oscillate [1] Trading Strategy - The support level of the coking coal futures has moved down. The support for the main contract is 1,030, and the support for the Jm2605 contract is 1,100 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Core View - The steel market shows a situation of both supply and demand being weak. The market should focus on the time node of the shift in trading logic from industry to macro - expectations. For the rebar main contract, there is caution in chasing long positions as the change in trading logic has not been confirmed [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review - Rebar and hot - rolled coils closed higher on Friday and also rose in night trading [1] 2. Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that intelligent connected vehicles will form a trillion - yuan consumption field [1] - The China Iron and Steel Association reported that in November 2025, the floating value of the coking coal long - term agreement in the coal - steel linkage was 78 yuan higher than that in October [1] - Chongqing supports using special bonds to repurchase eligible idle land [1] - Gong Sheng, the president of the All - China Federation of Industry and Commerce Metallurgical Chamber of Commerce, emphasized that private steel enterprises should increase R & D investment, promote intelligent transformation, and deepen green development [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points [1] - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.98%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points month - on - month; the profitability rate of steel mills was 35.06%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points month - on - month; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons month - on - month [1] 3. Market Logic - Rebar and hot - rolled coils rose on Friday, continued to climb in night trading and sharply pulled up near the close. It is necessary to observe whether the market is trading the macro - expectation logic in advance. Last week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand of all steel products changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to decline, but the de - stocking speed slowed down [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Focus on the time node of the shift in market trading logic from industry to macro - expectations. The first resistance level of the rebar main contract is 3150, and the second is 3202. The 3000 level is still a strong support. Due to the unconfirmed change in trading logic, be cautious about chasing long positions [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that China's stock market is expected to rise further in 2026, continuing this year's strong upward trend [3]. - A team led by Rajiv Batra, the Asia head and co - head of global emerging market equity strategy at J.P. Morgan, upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" [1][2][3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main stock indices in the two markets fluctuated upward on Friday. As the focus of AI shifts to applications, growth - oriented indices are gradually becoming the focus. The main indices in the two markets pulled back after rising on Thursday, which is a normal technical trend, and the direction of shock - recovery remains unchanged [1][2][3]. - There is a high probability of a significant increase in the Chinese stock market next year compared to potential downside risks. The recent adjustment of Chinese assets provides an attractive entry point [1][2][3]. - There should be no so - called AI bubble in the next three years, as current GPU utilization is high [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the main indices of the two markets showed divergent trends, with the semiconductor equipment sector leading the gains. The total trading volume in the two markets was 1.58 trillion yuan, continuing to shrink. The CSI 300 index closed at 4,526 points, up 11 points or 0.25%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2,969 points, down 2 points or - 0.09%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7,031 points, up 80 points or 1.15%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7,334 points, up 76 points or 1.06% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, the top gainers were Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor ETF, Rare Metals ETF, Satellite ETF, Semiconductor Equipment ETF, and New Energy Vehicle ETF, while the top losers were Traditional Chinese Medicine ETF, Bank ETF Fund, and Huatai - Peregrine Innovative Drug ETF. Among the sector indices in the two markets, the top gainers were forestry, titanium metals, energy metals, communication engineering, and movie theater indices, while the top losers were oil and gas exploration, national banks, traditional Chinese medicine, insurance, and coal mining indices [1]. - Net outflows of settled funds from stock index futures of the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices were 1.5 billion, 1 billion, 600 million, and 60 million yuan respectively [1]. 3.2 Important News - Zheng Shanjie, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, wrote in People's Daily that China should adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, combine expanding consumption with the development of new - quality productive forces, and expand the supply of high - quality consumer goods and services [1]. - Measures should be taken to increase the proportion of residents' income in national income distribution and the proportion of labor remuneration in primary distribution, and strive to achieve synchronous growth of residents' income and economic growth, as well as synchronous growth of labor remuneration and labor productivity [1]. - The investment popularity of the dividend sector has continued to rise recently. The issuance pace of dividend - themed funds has accelerated, and the new issuance scale this month is the highest of the year. More than 10 billion yuan has flowed into existing ETFs, and the share of many dividend - themed ETFs has reached a new high since listing [1]. - Greg Jensen, co - chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, refuted the theory of an AI bubble in a podcast, stating that the market has not understood the profound changes that AI will bring and the amount of capital about to flow into this field [1][2]. - The Beijing Space Data Center construction plan proposes to build and operate a centralized large - scale data center system with a power of over gigawatt (GW) in the 700 - 800 km dawn - dusk orbit [2]. - Quark AI Glass was officially launched, marking Alibaba's official entry into the AI glasses market [2]. - DeepSeek's newly released open - source mathematical model, DeepSeekMath - V2, reached the gold - medal level in the world - renowned most difficult high - school mathematics competition, marking a major breakthrough in the complex reasoning ability of open - source artificial intelligence [2]. - Morgan Stanley said that China's truck electrification market is booming rapidly. In October, the sales volume of electric heavy trucks increased by 144% year - on - year, with a penetration rate of 29%, expected to rise to 35% in 2026; the penetration rate of electric light trucks will rise from 10% in 2025 to 38% in 2027, and battery demand will soar from 30 GWh to 150 GWh [2]. - Driven by the weak US dollar and the AI investment boom, Morgan Stanley expects the return rate of emerging - market assets to reach 8% in 2026, and Bank of America is optimistic about the more than 10% return of emerging - market local - currency bonds next year. US AI capital expenditure will reach $628 billion in 2028 [2]. - Goldman Sachs' trading department believes that after the sharp internal adjustment of the US stock market in November, multiple indicators have now completed a "reset" [2]. - The core CPI in Tokyo rose 2.8% year - on - year in November, exceeding the market expectation of 2.7%. The possibility of a December interest - rate hike has increased due to continued inflationary pressure and the recent weakening of the yen [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - The main stock indices in the two markets fluctuated upward on Friday. As the focus of AI shifts to applications, growth - oriented indices are gradually becoming the focus. The adjustment of the main indices in the two markets on Thursday was a normal technical correction, and the upward trend remains intact [1][2][3]. - The upgrade of the rating of Chinese stocks by J.P. Morgan and the new issuance of 7 Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence ETFs are expected to bring more incremental funds to the market [2][3]. - Alibaba is making efforts in both AI - to - B and AI - to - C directions, and based on its ecological advantages, the Qianwen APP is expected to create the future AI living entrance [2][3]. - From January to October this year, the total amount of overseas funds flowing into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion, far exceeding the full - year figure of $11.4 billion in 2024 [2][3]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The main stock indices in the two markets fluctuated upward on Friday. As the focus of AI shifts to applications, growth - oriented indices are starting to strengthen, and the upward trend will continue [1][2][3]. - Six government departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have issued a document to promote consumption, encouraging platform companies to use AI technology to tap user needs and match product and service recommendations [3]. - The bullish sentiment of traders towards the offshore RMB has reached a 14 - year high [3]. - Multiple Fed governors have signaled a dovish stance. US retail sales in September were lower than expected, and the lay - off rate has accelerated. The probability of a Fed interest - rate cut in December has risen to over 80% [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, as the focus of AI shifts to applications, growth - oriented indices are starting to strengthen. Futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, with interval trading [3]. - For stock index option trading, as the stock index is in a shock - recovery period, investors should look for opportunities to buy far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley expects the return rate of emerging market assets to reach 8% in 2026, and Bank of America is optimistic about the over 10% return of emerging market local currency bonds next year [1] - Morgan Stanley upgrades the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy is at the top and starting to weaken due to consecutive wrong US policies [2] - The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates in December has risen significantly to 80% as employment data weakens and consumer K - type differentiation intensifies [2] - The so - called AI bubble is unlikely to exist in the next three years as GPU utilization is high, and there is huge demand for AI development [2] - The future five - year AI data center construction boom will require at least $5 trillion [2] Summaries by Related Contents Global Economic and Financial News - Morgan Stanley's team led by Rajiv Batra upgrades the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" and believes the possibility of a significant rise next year is higher than potential downside risks, and the recent adjustment of Chinese assets provides an attractive entry point [1] - Driven by the weakening dollar and AI investment boom, Morgan Stanley expects the 2026 return rate of emerging market assets to be 8%, and Bank of America is optimistic about over 10% returns on emerging market local currency bonds next year. US AI capital expenditure will reach $628 billion in 2028, affecting emerging markets through technology exports and metal prices [1] - Bridgewater's co - CIO Greg Jensen refutes the AI bubble theory, stating that the market fails to understand the profound changes AI will bring and the amount of capital about to flow into the field [1][2] - Quark AI glasses are released, marking Alibaba's entry into the AI glasses market. The glasses are built - in with Qianwen Assistant, integrating Alibaba's core ecological scenarios [1] - DeepSeek's new open - source mathematical model DeepSeekMath - V2 achieves a gold - medal level in a global high - school math competition, marking a major breakthrough in the complex reasoning ability of open - source AI [1] - Beijing proposes a space data center construction plan to build and operate a centralized large - scale data center system with over gigawatt (GW) power in the 700 - 800 km dawn - dusk orbit [1] - Tokyo's core CPI in November rises 2.8% year - on - year, exceeding the expected 2.7%. Due to inflation pressure and yen weakening, the possibility of a December interest - rate hike increases [1] - Goldman Sachs' trading department believes that after the sharp internal adjustment in November, multiple US stock market indicators have been "reset", correcting extreme long positions in large - cap tech stocks and improving market breadth [1] Global Economic Logic - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer K - type differentiation intensifies, with high - income consumers' spending remaining resilient while middle - and low - income families tighten their belts. The probability of a December Fed interest - rate cut rises to 80% as employment data weakens [2] - Industry leaders, including those from Alibaba, Google, and NVIDIA, are optimistic about AI development, with high GPU utilization and huge future demand [2] - Morgan Stanley strategists believe the future five - year AI data center construction boom will require at least $5 trillion. US data center planning capacity has increased sharply, and developers are building their own power plants [2] - US retail sales in September increase only 0.2%, lower than expected, and private enterprises' job cuts are accelerating, raising concerns about an economic slowdown [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical crises, and central bank gold purchases, the prices of gold and silver showed significant upward trends. Looking ahead to 2026, the prospects for the precious metals market remain optimistic, with continued fiscal expansion in major countries, expected further interest - rate cuts by the Fed, and the existence of stagflation risks in the US, all of which may support investment demand for precious metals [2][158]. Summary According to the Directory Part I: Precious Metals Market Review - **Gold Market Review** - **Historical Gold Market Review**: Gold had three major bull markets in the past 60 years. From 1971 - 1980, the price rose from $35/ounce to $850/ounce; from 2001 - 2011, it increased from $255/ounce to $1920/ounce; and from 2016 - 2025, it reached over $4000/ounce [5][6][8]. - **2025 Gold Market Review**: COMEX gold futures rose from $2758/ounce at the end of 2024 to a high of $4398/ounce on October 20, a cumulative increase of over 59%. SHFE gold futures also reached a record high of 1005.08 yuan/gram on October 21 [2][12]. - **Silver Market Review** - **Historical Silver Market Review**: Over the past 60 years, silver prices have fluctuated significantly. From 1971 - 1980, they soared from $1.5/ounce to $49.45/ounce; from 2001 - 2011, they increased from $4/ounce to $49/ounce; and from 2021 - 2025, they broke through $50/ounce [17][19]. - **2025 Silver Market Review**: COMEX silver rose from $30.5/ounce at the end of 2024 to a high of $55.13/ounce on November 13, an increase of 78%. SHFE silver reached a high of 12664 yuan/kg on November 13, a maximum increase of 67% [21]. Part II: Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics on Precious Metals Prices - **Impact of the US Economy on Precious Metals Prices** - **Impact of the US Interest - Rate Cut Cycle**: The expectation of the US interest - rate cut cycle supported the sharp rise in precious metals prices. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates twice, which reduced the yield of traditional assets and increased the attractiveness of gold [29]. - **Impact of the US Economy**: In 2025, the US GDP was expected to grow by 2% year - on - year, with core CPI remaining around 3.1%. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, and the manufacturing PMI was below 50. The service industry drove the US economy to maintain resilience. The "big and beautiful" tax and expenditure bill worsened the US's medium - and long - term fiscal outlook, consolidating the bullish trend of gold [31][34]. - **Impact of the US Dollar Index Trend**: The US dollar index was negatively correlated with precious metals prices. In 2025, the weakening US dollar index supported precious metals prices, but in 2026, its support may weaken [43]. - **Impact of Central Bank Gold Purchases on Precious Metals Prices**: Global central banks continued to increase their gold reserves in 2025. In the third quarter, the net gold purchases reached 220 tons, a 28% increase from the second quarter and a 10% increase year - on - year. Most central banks still plan to increase their gold reserves in the future [44][48]. - **Impact of Geopolitical Crises on Precious Metals Prices**: Geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East situation, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Israel - Palestine conflict increased market uncertainty and risk - aversion sentiment, driving investors to turn to gold. These events also affected the supply and demand pattern of gold [53]. Part III: Precious Metals Supply and Demand Analysis - **Gold Supply and Demand Analysis** - **Gold Supply Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw - material gold production was 271.782 tons, a 1.39% increase year - on - year, and imported raw - material gold production was 121.149 tons, an 8.94% increase. The global total gold supply was 3717.4 tons [54]. - **Gold Demand Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the global total gold demand was 3717.4 tons, a slight increase. China's gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a 7.95% decrease year - on - year [60]. - **Gold Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, SHF gold inventory continued to rise, especially after September, while COMEX gold inventory was stable after the first - quarter increase and gradually declined slightly in October [66]. - **Silver Supply and Demand Analysis** - **Silver Supply Analysis**: It was expected that the global silver supply in 2025 would increase by 2% year - on - year to 1030.6 million ounces, mainly due to a 2% increase in mined silver [71]. - **Silver Demand Analysis**: It was expected that the global silver demand in 2025 would decrease by 1% year - on - year to 1148.3 million ounces, with a 0.5% decrease in industrial demand, a 6% decrease in jewelry demand, and a 7% increase in investment demand [74]. - **Silver Inventory Analysis**: SHFE silver inventory decreased from a high at the beginning of 2025, then increased significantly from late May to early July, and then decreased. COMEX silver inventory increased in the first quarter and then fluctuated. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory also showed a downward trend [75]. Part IV: Precious Metals Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis - **Gold Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis** - **Domestic Gold Futures - Spot Arbitrage Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE gold futures active contracts was mostly negative, with positive spreads appearing in October, presenting arbitrage opportunities [84]. - **Gold Inter - Period Arbitrage Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE gold futures active and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with opportunities for inter - period arbitrage when the spread decreased significantly [88]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio Analysis**: In 2025, the gold - silver ratio fluctuated sharply. After a significant decline from the high, its future direction was difficult to predict [89]. - **SHFE Gold Position and Capital Inflow Analysis**: In 2025, domestic institutional net positions in SHFE gold futures were mostly long. The net long positions decreased during the rapid rise in gold prices from September to October [94]. - **Silver Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis** - **Silver Basis Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE silver futures active contracts was mostly negative, with positive spreads appearing in October and then returning to negative [105]. - **Silver Inter - Period Spread Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE silver futures active and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with significant fluctuations during the year [109]. - **SHFE Silver Position and Capital Inflow Analysis**: In 2025, domestic institutional net positions in SHFE silver futures were long. Capital inflow was obvious from January to mid - June, then fluctuated horizontally, and increased again from September to early October [114]. Part V: Precious Metals Options Analysis and Strategies - The implied volatility of gold and silver options has increased in the past two years. The put - call ratio of gold options indicates a bullish market, while the put - call ratio of silver options shows that investors may be more inclined to buy put options in October to avoid risks [126]. - Strategies include buying at - the - money call options when expecting price increases and increased volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options when expecting price increases but decreased volatility, selling strangles when implied volatility is high, and buying at - the - money straddles when expecting significant market fluctuations [127]. Part VI: Precious Metals Seasonal Analysis - Based on a five - year seasonal analysis, precious metals are more likely to rise in April and October and more likely to fall in June [144]. Part VII: Outlook on Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Technical Analysis - **Fed's 2026 Interest - Rate Cut Rhythm and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2026, with two possible cuts in the first half of the year, which is beneficial to precious metals prices [154]. - **US Government Policy Orientation in 2026 and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: The US economy is expected to grow in 2026, with a high fiscal deficit rate. If the impact of tariffs on inflation is one - time, inflation will have less restraint on interest - rate cuts [155]. - **Impact of Gold Supply - Demand Balance on Gold Prices**: In 2025, gold demand growth was mainly driven by investment demand. In the third quarter, investment demand increased by 47% year - on - year. In 2026, the gold market outlook remains optimistic [158]. - **Technical Analysis of Precious Metals Price Trends**: Technically, COMEX gold has strong support at $3500, and COMEX silver has strong support at $40. SHFE gold has support at 780 yuan, and SHFE silver has support at 9400 yuan [161]. Part VIII: Outlook on Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the global macro - game pattern remains unchanged. The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support precious metals prices. Buying on dips can be considered as a trading strategy [174].