早盘速递 2025/11/6 热点资讯 1.中方公布落实中美吉隆坡经贸磋商共识具体举措。其中包括：停止实施3月4日公布的对原产于美国的部分进口商品加征关 税；继续暂停24%对等关税一年，保留10%加征税率；对15家美国实体停止出口管制措施，对另外16家实体继续暂停一年；对11 家美国企业停止实施不可靠实体清单措施，对另外11家企业继续暂停一年；停止实施对原产于美国的进口相关截止波长位移单 模光纤的反规避措施。 2.美国最高法院周三就特朗普大规模征收对等关税的合法性展开口头辩论。除了最高法院的自由派大法官之外，多名保守派大 法官亦对特朗普关税的合法性表示质疑。最高法院首席大法官罗伯茨(John Roberts)表示，特朗普关税是对美国人征税，这始 终属于国会的核心权力。最高法院保守派大法官占多数，比例为6:3。最高法院可能会在12月宣布判决结果。 3.据国家能源局最新数据，截至9月底，我国新型储能装机规模超过1亿千瓦，与"十三五"末相比增长超30倍，装机规模占全 球总装机比例超过40%，已跃居世界第一。 主要大宗商品走势 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，资讯来自于金十期货、Wind资讯等，冠通研究整理 免责声 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/11/06 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨 0.48%报 47311 点，标普 500 指数涨 0.37%报 6796.29 点，纳指涨 0.65%报 23499.8 点。 2. 欧洲三大股指收盘小幅上涨，德国 DAX 指数涨 0.42%报 24049.74 点 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The asphalt market is in a state of oscillating downward. Supply is expected to decrease, downstream demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. Crude oil prices are volatile, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating [1]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the expected domestic asphalt production is 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 16.9%, and a decrease of 27.4 million tons year - on - year, a decrease of 11.0%. The output will slightly decrease due to the intermittent production of some refineries [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but restricted by funds and weather. The shipment volume in North China increased significantly, and the national shipment volume increased by 13.98% week - on - week to 331,300 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1]. - Crude oil: The market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States basically met market expectations. OPEC + decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. Crude oil prices oscillated [1]. - Price: The forward resources of refineries were concentratedly released. Recently, the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a neutral level. The spot price followed the decline, and the asphalt futures price was weakly oscillating [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 1.55% to 3,166 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,153 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 3,195 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 3,433 to 203,527 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,160 yuan/ton, and the basis of asphalt contract 01 dropped to - 6 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the actual cumulative completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 2.7% year - on - year, a slight rebound from - 3.3% from January - August 2025 but still in negative growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) increased by 1.1% year - on - year, continuing to decline from 2.0% from January - August 2025 [4]. - Downstream operating rate: As of the week ending October 31, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [4]. - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the stock of social financing increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year under the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. - Inventory: As of the week ending October 31, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week ending October 24, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The US government shutdown continues to affect market risk appetite, and the copper market has been weak recently. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the support during the peak season has weakened. There is no clear signal for copper prices [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened low and moved high, showing a weak trend during the day. The US Senate failed to pass the government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the government shutdown may break the historical record. The copper ore resources are tight, and the accident at the Indonesian copper mine is expected to affect the global copper supply until next year. Although the copper concentrate inventory has increased this week, it is still significantly lower than the same period last year. The market expects the long - term contract price to be zero or negative. In October, 8 smelters were under maintenance, and 5 are expected to be under maintenance in November, leading to a downward trend in copper production. With the recent rise in copper prices, the downstream demand has been suppressed, and the downstream operating rates have slightly declined. The Shanghai copper inventory has increased slightly [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low and moved high, showing a weak trend during the day. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 30 yuan/ton, and in South China it is - 15 yuan/ton. On November 3, 2025, the LME official price was 10624 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 24 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of November 4, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.06 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.13 cents/pound [8]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory is 42,600 tons, an increase of 6816 tons from the previous period. As of November 3, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 100,100 tons, a decrease of 6500 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 133,900 tons, a decrease of 1025 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 360,500 short tons, an increase of 2826 short tons from the previous period [11].

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月5日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格下跌25元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.69个百分点至78.26%， PVC开工率有所增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅提升，超过过去两年同期，只 是仍是偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价 下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50美元/吨 左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反倾销税还未执行，9月出口仍 较好，目前出口签单暂未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。 2025年1-9月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施 工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，仍处于近年同期最低水平附 近，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，50 万吨/年的万华化学8月份已经量产，40万吨/年的天津渤化8月份试生产后，预 ...

| œ B | | --- | | 冠通期货 Guantona Futuros | 本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1590 1590 0 河南 1570 1570 0 山东 1580 1570 10 山西 1450 1450 0 江苏 1570 1560 10 安徽 1560 1570 -10 黑龙江 1620 1620 0 内蒙古 1610 1610 0 河北东光 1570 1570 0 山东华鲁 1590 1590 0 江苏灵谷 1610 1610 0 安徽昊源 1560 1550 10 山东05基差 -149 -113 -36 山东01基差 -182 -146 -36 河北05基差 -119 -93 -26 河北01基差 -152 -126 -26 1-5价差 86 78 8 5-9价差 -33 -33 0 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 3900 3900 0 中东FOB 385.5 385.5 0 美湾FOB 396.5 396.5 0 埃及FOB 450 450 0 波罗的海FOB 379 379 0 巴西CFR 425 425 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as the increase in PP enterprise operating rate, the lower - than - expected demand during the peak season, and the lack of large - scale centralized procurement [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; however, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, with slightly fewer orders compared to the previous week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On November 5th, the restart of maintenance devices such as the single - line of Beihai Refinery led to an increase in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 23% [1][4] - At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly, and currently, it is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, the market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders met market expectations, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year, and crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range [1] - In terms of supply, the 400,000 - ton/year new production capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices decreased recently [1] - Although it is the peak season for downstream industries, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased week - on - week, the demand during the peak season was lower than expected, and there was a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which had limited impact on the market [1] - After the National Day, the stocking demand weakened periodically, and traders generally offered discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - There has been no actual anti - involution policy implemented in the PP industry, and anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The PP2601 contract increased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6,477 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,552 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,491 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.13%. The open interest increased by 16,153 lots to 644,601 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined, with drawstring reported at 6,330 - 6,610 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 5th, the restart of maintenance devices such as the single - line of Beihai Refinery led to an increase in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending October 31st, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; however, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, with slightly fewer orders compared to the previous week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the morning petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] - Raw materials: Brent crude oil contract 01 fluctuated around $65 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $15 per ton to $740 per ton week - on - week [4]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on November 5th, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Polysilicon dropped over 2%, and fiberboard, asphalt, caustic soda, red dates, rebar, polypropylene, styrene, and international copper fell over 1%. On the upside, the European Line of container shipping rose over 4%, and eggs, rapeseed meal, live pigs, soybean meal, soybean No.2, soybean No.1, and pulp rose over 1%. The CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract rose 0.41%, the SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.01%, the CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.55%, and the CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.77%. The 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract fell 0.01%, the 5-year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract remained flat, the 10-year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract fell 0.01%, and the 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract fell 0.08% [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:31 on November 5th, the CSI 1000 2512 contract had an inflow of 2.188 billion yuan, the CSI 500 2512 contract had an inflow of 553 million yuan, and the SSE 50 2512 contract had an inflow of 403 million yuan. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract had an outflow of 1.08 billion yuan, the Shanghai Copper 2512 contract had an outflow of 918 million yuan, and the Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract had an outflow of 682 million yuan [7]. 2. Commodity Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and moved high, showing weakness during the day. The US government shutdown continued, and the copper supply was tight due to the accident in the Indonesian copper mine and the upcoming smelter maintenance. The scrap copper supply was expected to increase with the rising copper price. The downstream demand was suppressed, and the inventory was slightly increasing. The copper price lacked a clear signal [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low, moved high, and then declined during the day. The upstream production was active, with an increase in output. The downstream demand was strong, driven by the energy storage battery. The inventory was decreasing. However, the market was affected by the news of large - scale production resumption, showing a pattern of both supply and demand increase. If the resumption news was confirmed, the supply might become more abundant, and the price might be weak in the short term [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, which would increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve it in the first quarter of next year. The demand peak season ended, and the market was worried about the demand. The supply - surplus pattern remained, but the export of Russian crude oil was expected to be restricted. The price was expected to fluctuate recently [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply was expected to decrease in November. The downstream demand was affected by funds and weather. The inventory was at a low level. The crude oil price fluctuated, and the asphalt futures price was expected to be weak and volatile [15]. PP - The PP downstream开工率 increased slightly, but the plastic weaving开工率 decreased. The supply increased with new capacity and fewer maintenance devices. The demand in the peak season was lower than expected. The price was expected to be weak and volatile [16][17]. Plastic - The plastic开工率 increased, and the downstream开工率 decreased. The supply increased with new capacity. The demand in the peak season was not as good as expected. The price was expected to be weak and volatile [18]. PVC - The PVC开工率 increased, and the downstream开工率 was low. The export was expected to weaken. The inventory was high, and the real - estate market was still adjusting. The price was expected to be weak and volatile [20]. Coking Coal - The coking coal supply tightened, and the inventory was transferred downward. The demand was weak in the short term due to environmental protection restrictions but was expected to recover. The supply - demand balance was tight [21][22]. Urea - The urea upstream factory's shipment improved, and the price rose slightly. The production was expected to be high. The downstream demand was mainly for terminal fertilizer storage. The inventory increased. The price was expected to consolidate at a low level without substantial positive news [23].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The futures and spot prices of urea have rebounded in resonance, but there is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals. Without substantial positive factors, it is expected to consolidate at a low level [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Market Analysis] - Urea opened flat and moved lower intraday but ended up rising. The upstream factories' shipping atmosphere has improved, and prices have risen slightly. The ex - factory price of small - grain urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,500 to 1,550 yuan/ton [1][5]. - Xinjiang Zhongneng Wanyuan's 2 million - ton production capacity was ignited, and it is expected to produce products in the middle of the month. The daily output has exceeded 190,000 tons, and high - level daily production is expected before large - scale gas and production restrictions [1]. - The autumn fertilizer season for downstream users is basically over, and terminal fertilizer stocking is the main activity. After the futures have been rising for several days, the market's purchasing sentiment has improved. The operating load and inventory of compound fertilizer factories have both increased, and the operation will gradually pick up, but mostly with pre - orders. The finished product inventory will enter an accumulation trend [1]. - The inventory in urea factories has increased. On one hand, agricultural demand is gradually ending, and purchases have decreased. On the other hand, shipments are hindered due to environmental protection requirements [1]. [Futures and Spot Market Quotes] - **Futures**: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1,625 yuan/ton, opened flat and moved lower, rose intraday, and finally closed at 1,633 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. The trading volume was 272,255 lots (-16 lots). Among the top 20 long - short positions of the main contract, the long position decreased by 2,118 lots, and the short position increased by 1,059 lots. Dongzheng Futures had a net long position of +1,099 lots, Hongyuan Futures had a net long position of +310 lots; Guotai Junan had a net short position of -686 lots, and Zheshang Futures had a net short position of -880 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The shipping atmosphere of upstream urea factories has improved recently, and prices have risen slightly. The ex - factory price of small - grain urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,500 to 1,550 yuan/ton [1][5]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On November 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,900, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. [Fundamental Tracking] - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation was stable today, and the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was -63 yuan/ton (-3 yuan/ton) [7]. - **Supply Data**: On November 5, 2025, the national daily urea output was 199,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.34% [8]. - **Enterprise Inventory Data**: As of November 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5781 million tons, an increase of 23,800 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.53%. The pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.29 days, a decrease of 0.24 days from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.19% [12].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that plastics will likely experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. The increase in plastic production due to the restart of maintenance - related devices and new capacity, combined with the lackluster downstream demand and inventory at a neutral level, as well as the fluctuating cost of crude oil, contribute to this outlook. The absence of practical anti - involution policies also affects the market trend [1]. 3) Summary According to the Catalog **行情分析** - On November 5, the restart of maintenance devices such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's HDPE 3 - line increased the plastic operating rate to about 89.5%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season, the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. The crude oil price fluctuates slightly, and new plastic production capacity has been added. The downstream procurement willingness is insufficient, and there are no practical anti - involution policies. [1] **期现行情** - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract showed an increasing - position and volatile operation, closing at 6814 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.97%. The trading volume increased by 20,008 lots to 553,147 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6790 - 7370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8970 - 9780 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7060 - 8090 yuan/ton [3]. **基本面跟踪** - **Supply**: On November 5, the restart of maintenance devices increased the plastic operating rate to about 89.5% [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending October 31, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. - **Inventory**: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 710,000 tons, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. - **Raw Material**: Brent crude oil's 01 contract fluctuated around $65/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged at $730/ton, and that of Southeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged at $740/ton [4].