持续弱势 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 17 日 【策略分析】 今日低开低走，日内偏弱震荡，现货收单热情不及昨日，价格小涨后成交不 畅，行情稳定为主。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂成交价格范围多 在 1600-1630 元/吨，河北部分工厂报价 1680-1690 元/吨，但高报价工厂主要执 行出口集港订单。尿素日产维持在 19 万吨左右进行，一方面山西尿素装置技改， 另一方面阅兵检修减产，前期产量有下滑，但随着装置复产及产能的投放，日产 依然预计偏高位运行，压制尿素价格。需求端，价格跌至低位后，下游拿货情绪 转好。复合肥工厂开工率偏低主要一方面终端需求疲软，前期备货已近 78 成， 另一方面厂内成品库存高企。虽然目前工厂利润尚且可观，但企业依然以库存去 化为重点，后续高位开工的几率不大。本期库存依然表现为增加，且目前库存高 企，大幅高于往年同期，制约尿素价格上行。整体来说，盘面筑底中，后续有反 弹机会，上方关注 1730 元/吨附近压力，但宽松格局尚未逆转，市场缺乏驱动。 【期现行情】 【冠通研究】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1685 元/吨开盘，低开低走，日内偏弱震荡， 最终收于 16 ...

早盘速递 2025/9/17 热点资讯 1. 周一，美国一家上诉法院拒绝了美国总统特朗普解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克的请求，这是自1913年美联储成立以来， 总统首次尝试采取此类行动。哥伦比亚特区巡回上诉法院的裁决意味着，美联储在当地时间周二和周三的议息会议期间， 库克暂时可以继续留在美联储。 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.61% 贵金属, 30.39% 油脂油料, 10.93% 有色 软商品, 2.27% , 20.67% 煤焦钢矿, 14.67% 能源, 2.93% 化工, 11.46% 谷物, 1.03% 农副产品, 3.05% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 第 1 页，共 3 页 重点关注 铁矿石、螺纹、菜油、豆二、沪金 夜盘表现 -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 板块表现 类 ...

Overnight Night Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.23% to $3727.5 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling 0.19% to $42.88 per ounce. Factors such as a weaker dollar, rising expectations of a Fed rate cut, geopolitical risks, and industrial demand support precious metal prices, but some contracts declined due to policy uncertainty [3]. - International oil prices rose strongly. The U.S. crude oil main contract rose 1.97% to $64.55 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract rose 1.59% to $68.51 per barrel. Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have raised supply concerns, and a larger - than - expected decrease in U.S. API crude oil inventories further supported oil prices [3]. - Most London base metals closed higher. LME nickel rose 0.06% to $15445 per ton, LME aluminum rose 0.43% to $2712 per ton, and LME tin rose 0.32% to $34750 per ton. LME copper fell 0.68% to $10117 per ton. LME nickel inventories reached a four - year high [3]. - Domestic futures main contracts were mixed. Low - sulfur fuel oil and fuel oil rose more than 1%, while iron ore, hot - rolled coils, rebar, and soybeans No. 2 declined slightly [4]. Important Information Macroeconomic News - A U.S. appeals court rejected President Trump's request to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Cook can temporarily remain at the Fed during the upcoming FOMC meetings [7]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman had no information on whether Chinese and U.S. leaders will talk this week [7]. - Nine Chinese government departments issued policies to expand service consumption, including measures to improve service quality and benefit the public [7]. - The U.S. Commerce Department will consider requests to impose tariffs on more imported auto parts in the coming weeks [8]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Since September, most deep - processing orders in major regions in China have not improved significantly, with most orders being scattered. Some medium - and large - sized enterprises can still arrange production for 20 - 60 days for engineering projects [10]. - OPEC+ representatives will meet in Vienna to discuss updating member production capacity estimates [12]. - Russian oil producers may have to cut production due to Ukrainian drone attacks on key Russian export ports and refineries [12]. Metal Futures - Chile expects copper production to increase this year despite setbacks at two major copper mines, and production is expected to reach a record high by 2027 [13]. - Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum and Electricity Co., Ltd. plans to replace its existing electrolytic aluminum production capacity [13]. - LME nickel inventories reached a four - year high on September 16, with significant increases in recent periods [13]. - Glencore will meet with the South African government to discuss avoiding layoffs at a smelter [14]. - Spot gold reached a new high, supported by dollar weakness and expectations of a Fed rate cut [15]. Black - Series Futures - From September 8 - 14, 2025, iron ore inventories at seven major Australian and Brazilian ports increased slightly, while Chinese 47 - port imported iron ore inventories decreased [18]. - Jinyie Steel Group resumed production after maintenance, increasing daily hot - metal output [19]. - Tangshan's coke and steel enterprises started environmental - protection - related production restrictions on September 16 [19]. - A coal mine in Linfen, Hongtong stopped production on September 16, affecting about 140,000 tons of coal output [19]. - Thirteen coal - washing enterprises in Wuhai are required to complete rectifications by the end of the month [19]. - As of September 16, the operating rate and capacity utilization of 50 major electric - arc - furnace steel mills in China decreased [20]. Agricultural Futures - China's soybean crushing volume is expected to be around 2.4 million tons this week, with slow inventory accumulation of soybean meal [23]. - China's use of agricultural fertilizers and pesticides decreased in 2024 compared to 2020 [23]. - As of September 15, cotton inventories in Zhangjiagang Bonded Area decreased year - on - year [23]. - Edible oil prices, including palm oil, are expected to remain firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply - demand imbalances [24]. - China's domestic oil - mill average operating rate increased in the 37th week [24]. - China will conduct a central reserve frozen pork auction on September 18 [25]. - As of September 16, China's soybean oil port inventories increased slightly [26]. - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production and 2025 export volume forecasts remain unchanged, while the 2025 soybean crushing volume forecast is raised [28]. - As of September 14, EU 2025/26 soybean and corn imports decreased compared to last year [29]. - The U.S. EPA proposed re - allocating biofuel blending obligations [29]. - Brazil's September soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volume forecasts are raised [29]. Financial Market Financial - China's A - share market closed higher, with robot concept stocks leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.45%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.68% [31]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.03%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.56%. Southbound funds had a net sell - off, but Alibaba had a net buy - in [31]. - Chery Automobile will start its IPO book - building today, targeting a valuation of HK$140 billion [33]. - Benyuan Quantum filed for IPO guidance [33]. - Micro - Nano Star, a satellite manufacturing unicorn, started its IPO process [34]. Industry - A UHV DC transmission project from Southeast Tibet to the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area started construction, with a total investment of about 53.2 billion yuan and over 150 billion yuan for the supporting power base [34]. - Guangdong Province issued an action plan to empower the toy industry with AI, aiming for a scale - above - designated - size toy industry revenue of 100 billion yuan and an AI toy penetration rate of over 30% by 2027 [34]. - Suzhou released an "AI +" city action plan, aiming to gather over 3000 AI enterprises and achieve an average annual growth of over 20% in the intelligent economy core scale by the end of 2026 [35]. - China Real Estate Association's direct - sales platform for commercial housing was launched [36]. - The world's first AI Agent trading market, MuleRun, was launched [37]. Overseas - The U.S. Senate approved Milan's nomination as a Fed governor, and Trump signed the appointment [39]. - A U.S. appeals court allowed Fed Governor Cook to stay, and the Trump administration will appeal [39]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary said the Fed has been lagging, and the market is pricing in a 75 - basis - point rate cut by the end of the year [39]. - The U.S. will consider expanding tariffs on steel, aluminum, and auto parts [39]. - The U.S. government is discussing setting up a $5 - billion mining investment fund and expanding strategic uranium reserves [39]. - A U.S. House Republican temporary spending bill to avoid a government shutdown lacks Democratic - demanded healthcare policies [40]. - U.S. retail sales rose in August, which may affect the Fed's rate - cut decision [42]. - U.S. manufacturing output rose in August, better than expected [43]. - Canada's CPI and new - home starts data in August were lower than expected, and the market is pricing in a Bank of Canada rate cut [43]. International Stock Markets - U.S. major stock indices closed slightly lower, with the Dow down 0.27%, the S&P 500 down 0.13%, and the Nasdaq down 0.07%. Most Chinese concept stocks rose [44]. - European major stock indices closed lower due to multiple factors, including Fed policy uncertainty and France's credit - rating issues [44]. - The U.S. SEC is considering Trump's proposal to reduce the frequency of corporate earnings reports [44]. - Japanese and South Korean stock markets continued to rise, with the Nikkei 225 and South Korea's KOSPI reaching new highs [45]. Commodity - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold rising and COMEX silver falling [47]. - International oil prices rose strongly due to supply concerns and inventory data [47]. - Most London base metals closed higher, with LME nickel inventories reaching a four - year high [47]. - OPEC+ will discuss production capacity at this week's meeting [48]. Bond - Yields of major Chinese inter - bank interest - rate bonds fluctuated, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [49]. - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board [50][51]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted up [52]. - The U.S. dollar index fell, and most non - U.S. currencies rose [52]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events Economic Data - Key economic data to be released include New Zealand's Q2 current account, Japan's August trade balance, UK's August CPI, etc. [54] Events - There are multiple central - bank meetings, including the Fed, Bank of Canada, and Indonesia's central bank. There are also various press conferences and industry events [56]

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on September 16, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Coking coal rose nearly 6%, coke rose over 4%, glass and soda ash rose over 3%, and alumina and rapeseed oil rose nearly 2%. On the downside, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell over 1%, and red dates and eggs fell nearly 1%. Among stock index futures, IF fell 0.24%, IH fell 0.36%, IC rose 0.58%, and IM rose 1.02%. Among treasury bond futures, TS rose 0.04%, TF rose 0.13%, T rose 0.15%, and TL remained flat [5]. - As of 15:17 on September 16, in terms of capital flow, coking coal 2601 saw an inflow of 1.163 billion yuan, rapeseed oil 2601 had an inflow of 1.008 billion yuan, and thirty - year treasury bond 2512 had an inflow of 462 million yuan. Outflows were seen in CSI 300 2509 (2.448 billion yuan), SSE 50 2509 (1.23 billion yuan), and Shanghai copper 2510 (1.146 billion yuan) [7]. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The market is trading on the Fed's rate - cut amplitude, and the US dollar index is weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decline significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and smelter maintenance, supporting copper prices. The demand side is in the expectation of the peak season, and downstream purchasing has improved. Copper prices are likely to rise [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade is 70,600 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend. Supply is affected by the proportion of lithium mica raw materials and mine复产. Demand is boosted by the new energy vehicle policy and the peak season. In the short term, prices are strong, but the upside may be limited by mine复产 [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The seasonal travel peak is ending. US oil inventories are increasing, and OPEC + is accelerating production increases. In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies. In the short term, the market may focus on sanctions against Russian oil, and geopolitical risks are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is increasing with rising production and开工 rates. Demand is affected by weather, funds, and other factors. With limited cost support, it is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [14]. - **PP**: Downstream开工 rates are rising, and new production capacity has been put into operation. With cost support and the approaching peak season, it is expected to fluctuate with limited downside [15][16]. - **Plastic**:开工 rates are at a neutral level, and downstream demand is increasing with the peak season for agricultural films. With cost support and the influence of policies, it is expected to fluctuate with limited downside [17]. - **PVC**: Supply is increasing with rising开工 rates and new production capacity. Export expectations are weakening, and inventory pressure is high. The upside space is limited, and it is necessary to pay attention to the sustainability of demand [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are stable or rising. Production and imports are increasing, but inventories are decreasing. Demand is rising with steel mill复产. Prices are rising, but there may be short - term corrections [20]. - **Urea**: Prices are oscillating. Production is recovering, and demand is improving marginally. However, high inventory restricts price increases. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. The demand side is currently in the expectation of the peak season, and the downstream purchasing situation has improved. Therefore, copper prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall in the future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - From September 14th to 15th, the economic and trade teams of China and the US held talks in Madrid, Spain. As of September 12th, China's spot TC was -41.42 dollars per dry ton, and RC was -4.16 cents per pound, remaining weakly stable. Factory seasonal maintenance plans in September and October will lead to production reduction, and small and medium - sized smelters are under profit pressure. The supply of refined copper remains tight. In August, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1715 million tons, a 0.24% month - on - month decrease and a 15.59% year - on - year increase. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will significantly decline, and smelters have maintenance plans in September, so the electrolytic copper production in September is expected to drop sharply. Although the price has been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved, but the realization of the peak - season expectation remains to be seen. The SHFE inventory has slightly increased, imports have risen, and high prices have curbed copper demand, starting a inventory - building trend [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, with a strong and volatile trend, closing at 80,880 yuan per ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 70 yuan per ton, and in South China was 40 yuan per ton. On September 15, 2025, the LME official price was 10,073 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 87 dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of September 12th, the latest data showed that the spot TC was -41.42 dollars per dry ton, and the spot RC was -4.16 cents per pound. In terms of inventory, SHFE copper inventory was 33,700 tons, an increase of 3,049 tons from the previous period. As of September 15th, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 151,000 tons, a decrease of 1,325 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 311,800 short tons, an increase of 1,360 short tons from the previous period [7][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PVC industry is "shock upward" [1] Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to show a shock upward trend, but the upward space is limited. The supply side is under pressure due to increased production capacity and high inventory, while the demand side is weak due to the slow recovery of the real estate market [1] Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - It is recommended to close short positions. The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region has increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate has increased by 2.81 percentage points to 79.94%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low compared to previous years, with cautious procurement. India has postponed the BIS policy for six months to December 24, 2025. The export tax of Chinese PVC to India has increased, reducing the export expectation in the second half of the year. However, export orders have increased after the recent price decline. The social inventory has continued to increase and is still high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The chloro - alkali comprehensive profit is positive, and the PVC operating rate has increased this week. New production capacities have been put into operation or are in the process of commissioning. The anti - involution sentiment has resurfaced, but there is no actual policy implementation in the PVC industry. The PVC basis is low, and the upward space is limited. The PVC demand increased significantly last week, and its sustainability needs attention [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract has increased in price with reduced positions, closing at 4960 yuan/ton, up 1.27%, and the position has decreased by 61,765 lots to 1,138,709 lots [2] Basis - On September 16, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China has risen to 4725 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract is 4960 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 235 yuan/ton, weakening by 12 yuan/ton, which is at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply Side**: The production of some devices such as Baotou Haiping and Inner Mongolia Junzheng has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased by 2.81 percentage points to 79.94%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, and Gansu Yaowang have been put into production or are in the process of commissioning [4] - **Demand Side**: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to August 2025, the national real estate development investment was 603.09 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The sales area, sales volume, new construction area, construction area, and completion area of commercial housing have all decreased to varying degrees. As of the week of September 14, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has decreased by 1.79% week - on - week, remaining at a low level in recent years. The impact of real estate favorable policies on sales needs attention [5] - **Inventory**: As of the week of September 11, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.75% week - on - week to 934,200 tons, an increase of 8.63% compared to the same period last year. The social inventory has continued to increase and is still high [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Strategy analysis: Hold [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is gradually exiting the seasonal travel peak season. Currently, EIA data shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories have increased more than expected, and the increase in refined oil inventories has exceeded expectations. The overall oil product inventory continues to rise. However, the US refinery operating rate has rebounded slightly by 0.6 percentage points and remains relatively high. On September 7, OPEC+ officially stated that eight countries decided to adjust the production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, starting from October 2025. This 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions and will be carried out gradually. The eight OPEC+ countries will hold their next meeting on October 5, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The latest IEA monthly report has further increased the expected surplus of crude oil. Saudi Aramco has lowered the shipping price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, to Asia in October by $1 per barrel. Currently, after the discount of Russian crude oil has widened, India continues to import Russian crude oil, and India and the US are still in negotiations. Attention should be paid to the progress of the ceasefire agreement negotiation between Russia and Ukraine and India's procurement of Russian crude oil. As the subsequent consumption peak season is coming to an end, the weak US non-farm payroll data has raised concerns about crude oil demand, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. The supply and demand of crude oil will weaken, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium and long term. In the short term, the sharp decline in crude oil prices has partially released the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting, and the market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil. In addition, countries such as Iraq have submitted the latest compensation plans, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, of which the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, alleviating the pressure of increased supply. Israel's attack on the Hamas ceasefire negotiation delegation in Qatar has increased the geopolitical risk in the Middle East, and Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Crude oil is oscillating, and it is recommended to hold for now [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Today, the main contract of crude oil futures, the 2510 contract, rose 1.15% to 493.6 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 486.8 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 495.2 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 3,109 to 13,395 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. Additionally, EIA has raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.22 per barrel to $67.80 per barrel. However, EIA predicts that the Brent crude oil price will drop to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and maintain the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel. OPEC has maintained its forecast for the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has raised its forecast for the global oil supply growth in 2025 by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and increased the forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 60,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day [3] - On the evening of September 10, US EIA data showed that for the week ending September 5, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.939 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.04 million barrels, and were 2.83% lower than the five-year average; gasoline inventories increased by 1.458 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 243,000 barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 4.715 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 35,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 365,000 barrels. The EIA data shows that crude oil and gasoline inventories have increased more than expected, and the increase in refined oil inventories has exceeded expectations. The overall oil product inventory continues to rise [3] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, the latest OPEC monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in July was revised down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day, and its production in August 2025 increased by 478,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 27.948 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the increase in production in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels per day to 13.495 million barrels per day in the week of September 5. Currently, US crude oil production has decreased by 136,000 barrels per day from the all-time high set in early December last year [4] - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four-week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.888 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.76% compared with the same period last year, and the increase compared with the same period last year has decreased. Among them, the weekly gasoline demand decreased by 6.68% month-on-month to 8.508 million barrels per day, and the four-week average demand was 8.927 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.58% compared with the same period last year; the weekly diesel demand decreased by 10.38% month-on-month to 3.377 million barrels per day, and the four-week average demand was 3.813 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.01% compared with the same period last year. Both gasoline and diesel demand decreased month-on-month, driving the single-week supply of US crude oil products to continue to decrease by 4.22% month-on-month [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - After the futures atmosphere improved, the spot market started to buy at low prices, and the futures price rebounded technically after bottoming out. However, the loose supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and the market lacks driving forces. Investors should be cautious about chasing up [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened high and trended lower today, with a relatively strong intraday oscillation. Affected by the futures rebound yesterday, the upstream factory transactions improved, and today's quotes rebounded slightly. The ex - factory transaction price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton, and some Hebei factories quoted 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, mainly for export port - collection orders. Urea factories have mainly resumed production in the past two weeks, and the output has recovered. Currently, the daily output is close to 190,000 tons. Recently, some Shanxi plants stopped for technical transformation, resulting in a slight decrease in regional output. On the demand side, after the price dropped to an acceptable range for downstream users and the futures rebounded, downstream users gradually started to purchase. After the military parade, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories rebounded, and the current operation is basically the same as last year. The finished product inventory of compound fertilizer factories has been continuously reduced this month, and fertilizers are being transferred to the end - users. Although the current output has decreased, due to insufficient domestic demand, the inventory is still increasing and is much higher than the same period in previous years, which restricts the upward movement of urea prices [1] Futures and Spot Market Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1700 yuan/ton, opened high and trended lower, with a relatively strong intraday oscillation, and finally closed at 1686 yuan/ton, forming a negative line, with a change rate of +0.42%. The open interest was 277,334 lots (-7,644 lots). Among the top twenty main positions of the main contract, the long positions decreased by 3,955 lots, and the short positions decreased by 5,791 lots. Hongyuan Futures had a net long position of +752 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of -991 lots; CITIC Futures had a net short position of +1357 lots, and Guotai Junan had a net short position of -551 lots. On September 16, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,279, a decrease of 334 from the previous trading day [2] Spot - Affected by the futures rebound yesterday, the upstream factory transactions improved, and today's quotes rebounded slightly. The ex - factory transaction price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton, and some Hebei factories quoted 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, mainly for export port - collection orders [1][4] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes and the futures closing price both increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was -26 yuan/ton (+17 yuan/ton) [8] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on September 16, 2025, the national daily urea output was 188,600 tons, basically unchanged, and the operating rate was 79.69% [10]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "Breeding Industry Chain Data Report - Soybean Meal, Oils" [1] - Report date: September 16, 2025 [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Data Prices and Spreads - The average price of 43% protein soybean meal was 3,029 yuan/ton, down 0.82% week-on-week from the previous value of 3,054 yuan/ton [2] - The spot-futures price difference of soybean meal was -13 yuan/ton, a 51.85% decrease from the previous -27 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of the soybean meal spot main contract was 5.57 yuan/ton, a 65.49% decline from the previous 16.14 yuan/ton [2] Production, Consumption, and Inventory - The production of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises was 1.6381 million tons, up 0.75% week-on-week from 1.6258 million tons [2] - The daily trading volume of soybean meal was 195,000 tons, an 11.49% increase from the previous 174,900 tons [2] - The apparent consumption of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises was 1.6079 million tons, a 2.68% increase from 1.5659 million tons [2] - The inventory of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises was 1.0464 million tons, a 2.97% increase from 1.0162 million tons [2] Group 3: Oil Data Inventory - The inventory of palm oil in China was 64.15 million tons, a 3.58% increase from the previous 61.93 million tons [5] - The inventory of rapeseed oil in China was 60.77 million tons, a 3.39% decrease from the previous 62.90 million tons [5] - The inventory of soybean oil in China was 125.12 million tons, a 0.01% decrease from the previous 125.13 million tons [5] Price Spreads and Basis - The spot-futures price difference of palm oil in China was -24 yuan/ton, an 84.62% increase from the previous -13 yuan/ton [5] - The spot-futures price difference of rapeseed oil in China was 266 yuan/ton, a 22.58% increase from the previous 217 yuan/ton [5] - The spot-futures price difference of soybean oil and palm oil in China was -813 yuan/ton, a 3.90% decrease from the previous -846 yuan/ton [5] - The basis of the palm oil spot main contract was -69.33 yuan/ton, a 70.47% increase from the previous -40.67 yuan/ton [5] - The basis of the rapeseed oil spot main contract was 107 yuan/ton, a 25.69% decrease from the previous 144 yuan/ton [5] - The basis of the soybean oil spot main contract was 153.68 yuan/ton, a 17.23% decrease from the previous 185.68 yuan/ton [5]

Key Points Summary Hot News - China's real estate market is moving towards stabilization with narrowing year-on-year declines in commercial housing sales and residential prices, but more efforts are needed [2] - Hamas has suspended negotiations with Israel on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the exchange of detainees [2] - China opposes the US's intention to impose "secondary tariffs" on China over the purchase of Russian oil, threatening to take necessary measures to safeguard its interests [2] - The US has opened a "window" to impose tariffs on more steel and aluminum derivatives under Section 232 [2] - China and the US held talks in Madrid, Spain, and had candid, in - depth, and constructive communication on economic and trade issues such as TikTok [3] Key Commodities - Key commodities to focus on include coking coal, coke, LPG, rapeseed meal, and Shanghai gold [4] Plate Performance - In terms of plate price changes, the non - metallic building materials plate rose 2.66% [6] - Regarding plate capital ratios, precious metals accounted for 30.14%, followed by non - ferrous metals at 21.15%, coal - coking - steel - ore at 14.41%, etc [7] Asset Performance - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% daily, rose 0.07% monthly, and 15.18% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.22% daily, 5.46% monthly, and 31.84% annually [8] - In the fixed - income market, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.12% daily, 0.00% monthly, and fell 1.03% annually [9] - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index rose 1.24% daily, 1.03% monthly, and 2.95% annually; London spot gold rose 1.00% daily, 6.73% monthly, and 40.19% annually [9] - Other assets: the US dollar index fell 0.27% daily, 0.50% monthly, and 10.25% annually; the CBOE volatility remained unchanged daily, fell 3.91% monthly, and 14.93% annually [9]