下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 13801.08 339.17 9309.43 297.45 2362.3 40.4 241.02 83.98 90.35 58.87 -8.00 上期 13849.47 331.28 8993.05 296.65 2448 40.27 240.55 83.83 90.18 60.17 -5.50 周变动 -48.39 7.89 316.38 0.80 -85.70 0.13 0.47 0.15 0.17 -1.3 -2.50 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 10811.42 1671.76 291.24 1026.66 本期 8980.59 5266.52 5775.57 上期 10856.92 1626.53 287.4 1078.62 上期 9034.81 5228.22 5806.51 周变动 -45.5 45.23 3.84 -51.96 周变动 -54.22 38.3 -30.94 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/09/19 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.07%报 3678.2 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 0.12%报 42.1 美元/盎司。美联储降息后，鲍威尔讲话偏鹰， 美元指数反弹，导致黄金白银获利回吐，价格承压回调。 2. 国际油价小幅下跌，美油主力合约收跌 0.61%，报 63.31 美元/桶；布伦特原 ...

Key Points of the Report 1. Hot News - "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos said Fed Chair Powell's policy shift in Wednesday's rate cut might be his last attempt to prove the Fed's independence [2] - Reuters reported that the UAE might downgrade diplomatic relations with Israel if Netanyahu's government annexes parts or all of the occupied West Bank [2] - CCTV News reported that China's cumulative new - energy vehicle sales exceeded 40 million, ranking first globally for 10 consecutive years [2] - UBS's Hu Yifan said the Fed may cut rates by 75 basis points by Q1 2026 in the base scenario, and 200 - 300 basis points in the downside scenario [3] - White House's Hasset supported the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut [3] 2. Market Performance Sector Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a 2.66% increase [4] - Precious metals rose 29.99%, followed by non - ferrous metals (19.97%), coal, coke, steel and minerals (14.69%), etc [5] Asset Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.15%, the S&P 500 rose 0.48%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.35% [7] - 10 - year Treasury futures declined 0.05%, WTI crude oil dropped 0.58%, and London spot gold fell 0.41% [7] Commodity Futures - Key commodities to watch include 20 - rubber, fuel oil, PTA, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [6] - Changes in commodity futures positions in the past five days are presented [7] 3. Other Aspects - Main trends of major commodities are shown, including BDI, CRB index, etc [8] - Stock market risk preferences are presented through data on risk premiums [13][14]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The Fed's September FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the median dot plot implies a total of 3 rate cuts this year and 1 next year. The TC/RC fees remain weakly stable, and the factory seasonal maintenance plan will lead to production cuts in September and October. The supply of refined copper remains tight. Although the price has been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved, but the realization of the peak - season expectation remains to be seen. The SHFE inventory has started to accumulate. Overall, after the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was realized, the previous gains were partly given back, but the fundamentals are still tight. The domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly, which will support the copper price. It is recommended to buy on dips moderately [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The previous trading of the Fed's 50bp interest - rate cut expectation led to a price increase, and after the cut of 25bp was realized, part of the gains were given back. The fundamentals are tight. The domestic copper production is expected to be significantly affected by the reduction of scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support the copper price. With the approaching of the double festivals, downstream stocking will increase, so it is advisable to buy on dips moderately [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower with a gap and fluctuated weakly, closing at 79,620 yuan/ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China and South China is 60 yuan/ton. On September 167, 2025, the LME official price was 9,963 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 69 dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of September 12, the spot TC was - 41.42 dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.16 cents/pound. The 8 - month SMM China electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and smelters have maintenance plans, so the electrolytic copper production in September is expected to drop sharply [1][7] Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 32,500 tons, a decrease of 822 tons from the previous period. As of September 15, the Shanghai bonded area copper inventory is 76,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 148,900 tons, a decrease of 1,175 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 312,800 short tons, a decrease of 26 short tons from the previous period [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for crude oil is to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The peak travel season for crude oil is basically over. Although EIA data shows a significant unexpected drawdown in US crude oil inventories, the unexpected build - up in refined oil inventories eases supply concerns, and overall oil product inventories continue to increase. The US refinery operating rate has dropped by 1.6 percentage points. [1][3] - OPEC+ will implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day starting from October 2025, and this 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions. The next OPEC+ meeting on October 5 will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter, and the IEA has raised the forecast of crude oil surplus again. [1] - Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for October shipments to Asia by $1 per barrel. After the discount of Russian crude oil has widened, India continues to import Russian crude oil, and India and the US are still in negotiations. [1] - The upcoming end of the consumption season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and OPEC+ accelerating production increase will lead to a weakening of crude oil supply and demand. It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long term. [1] - The previous sharp drop in crude oil prices has partially released the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting. The market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil. [1] - Iraq and other countries have submitted a new compensation plan, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, and the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, which eases the pressure of supply increase. [1] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, and Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Crude oil is oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see for now. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The investment strategy is to wait and see. The market situation is complex with factors such as OPEC+ production adjustment, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand changes. In the medium - to - long term, it is recommended to short at high levels, but in the short term, due to the release of some negative news and geopolitical uncertainties, waiting and seeing is advisable. [1] Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2511 fell 1.60% to 491.8 yuan per ton today, with a minimum price of 491.7 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 500.5 yuan per ton, and the open interest decreased by 962 to 33,886 lots. [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. It has raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.22 per barrel to $67.80 per barrel, but expects the price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and keep the average price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel. [3] - OPEC maintains its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. [3] - IEA has raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 60,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. [3] - US EIA data on September 17 showed that for the week ending September 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels (expected to decrease by 857,000 barrels), gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels (expected to increase by 68,000 barrels), refined oil inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels (expected to increase by 975,000 barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 296,000 barrels. [3] Supply - Demand Analysis - OPEC's July crude oil production was revised down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day, and its August 2025 production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.948 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. [4] - US crude oil production in the week of September 12 decreased by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day, and is currently 149,000 barrels per day lower than the record high set in early December last year. [4] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.671 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.95% compared to the same period last year, with the increase rate decreasing. Gasoline and diesel demand rebounded from low levels, driving a 4.33% increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The urea market opened flat and trended lower today, with weak intraday oscillations. The spot price continued to decline, and the futures showed weak rebound. The market sentiment was poor. The high - level supply and high inventory situation restricted the upward movement of urea prices. Although there was a chance of rebound later, the loose market pattern had not reversed, and the market lacked driving forces [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened flat and trended lower, with weak intraday oscillations. The spot price continued to fall, and the futures rebounded weakly. The market sentiment was poor. The daily urea production was expected to remain at a high level, suppressing the urea price. The demand side saw an increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories, but the growth rate slowed down. The terminal demand was weak, and the inventory was high. The inventory continued to increase, which restricted the upward movement of urea prices. There was a chance of rebound later, with attention paid to the pressure around 1730 yuan/ton, but the loose pattern had not reversed [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1681 yuan/ton, closed at 1670 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.65%. The trading volume was 286,823 lots (+5,335 lots). Among the top 20 institutional positions, long positions increased by 3,015 lots, and short positions increased by 2,691 lots. On September 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,188, a decrease of 80 compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Spot**: The spot price continued to decline. The ex - factory transaction price of small - grain urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton. Some factories in Hebei quoted 1670 - 1680 yuan/ton, but these high - priced factories mainly fulfilled export orders [1][4]. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 20 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton) [8]. - **Supply Data**: On September 18, 2025, the national daily urea production was 196,000 tons, an increase of 5,400 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.82% [9]. - **Downstream Data**: From September 12 to September 18, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 38.63%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 56.78%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous week [13].

Hot News - On September 17, Hong Kong Chief Executive Li Jiachao announced in the 2025 Policy Address that Hong Kong will cooperate with exchanges in the Greater Bay Area to develop new businesses such as commodity trading and carbon trading [2] - As of the end of July, the balance of national housing consumer loans excluding individual housing loans reached 21.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 34.6 billion yuan from the beginning of the year and a year-on-year increase of 5.34% [2] - After nearly a decade of negotiations, the EU and Indonesia have completed a trade agreement, part of the EU's efforts to diversify supply chains and explore new markets [2] - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, resuming the rate cut suspended since December last year [2] - Fed Chairman Powell said there was no broad support for a 50-basis-point rate cut at this week's meeting [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are 20 rubber, rebar, staple fiber, Shanghai Copper II, and Shanghai Gold [4] Night Session Performance - Night session performance of commodity futures main contracts shows varying degrees of increase and decrease, with details of price changes and position increase ratios presented [4] Sector Performance - Non-metallic building materials sector had a 2.66% increase [5] - Sector capital ratios: precious metals 29.85%, oils and fats 11.11%, non-ferrous metals 20.57%, soft commodities 2.30%, coal, coke, steel and minerals 14.68%, energy 3.07%, chemicals 11.53%, grains 1.03%, agricultural and sideline products 3.20% [6] Asset Performance - Stock indices performance: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% daily, 0.48% monthly, and 15.65% annually; Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.17% daily, -0.80% monthly, and 9.98% annually; CSI 300 Index rose 0.61% daily, 1.21% monthly, and 15.66% annually; CSI 500 Index rose 0.96% daily, 3.07% monthly, and 26.80% annually; S&P 500 Index fell -0.10% daily, rose 2.17% monthly, and 12.22% annually; Hang Seng Index rose 1.78% daily, 7.30% monthly, and 34.14% annually; German DAX Index rose 0.13% daily, -2.27% monthly, and 17.33% annually [8] - Performance of other assets includes various bonds, commodities, and indices with different daily, monthly, and annual changes [9] Main Commodity Trends - Presented are the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc [10] Stock Market Risk Preference - Analyzed is the stock market risk preference through indicators such as the risk premium of the Wande All A (excluding finance, petroleum and petrochemicals), Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [15][16]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.82% at $3,694.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.15% at $41.99 per ounce. The shift in major central banks' monetary policies may weaken the US dollar and support the precious metal market [3][43]. - International oil prices fell slightly, with the US crude oil main contract down 0.85% at $63.97 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract down 0.82% at $67.91 per barrel. The oil market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors [3][43]. - Most London base metals declined, while LME nickel rose 0.11% to $15,445 per ton. Loose monetary policy expectations may support base metals priced in US dollars [3][44]. - Domestic futures contracts mostly declined, with short - fiber rising over 1%, and 20 - number rubber falling over 2% [4]. 2. Important News Macro News - Hong Kong will cooperate with exchanges in the Greater Bay Area to develop new businesses such as commodity trading and carbon trading [7]. - As of the end of July, the balance of national housing consumer loans (excluding personal housing loans) was 21.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.34% [7]. - The EU and Indonesia have completed trade agreement negotiations [8]. - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, restarting the rate - cut process [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE decreased to a record low [12]. - The inventory at Port A in China increased, with different trends in East and South China [12]. - US crude oil exports increased, production decreased, and commercial crude oil inventory decreased [12]. Metal Futures - The复产 expectation of a mining company in Guinea is strengthening [14]. - China's domestic polysilicon effective production capacity is expected to decline [14]. - China's lead and zinc production in August showed year - on - year growth [14]. - Deutsche Bank raised its price forecasts for gold and silver in 2026 [16]. - A mining union in Guinea has issued a strike notice [16]. - China's alumina and electrolytic aluminum production data for August were released [16]. - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate, refined nickel, zinc, lead, and tin was reported [17]. Black - series Futures - The online auction of coking coal in Lvliang market showed mixed results [19]. - China's steel, pig iron, and steel product production data for August were released [21]. - Tangshan requires steel and coking enterprises to implement emission reduction measures [21]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange is soliciting opinions on coking coal futures option contracts [22]. - Representatives of the steel industry in Jiangsu discussed measures to address industry challenges [22]. Agricultural Futures - A meeting on regulating pig production capacity was held, aiming to control the number of sows and adjust pig supply [24]. - Malaysia's palm oil export volume from September 1 - 15 decreased compared to the previous month [25][27]. - The 2025/26 sugar - making season in China officially started [26]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 15 decreased compared to the previous month [26]. - Brazil's sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the second half of August showed year - on - year growth [27]. - Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volume forecasts for September 14 - 20 were released [27]. 3. Financial Market Finance - A - shares fluctuated upward, with the auto - parts sector leading the rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95% [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and related technology indexes reached new highs. Southbound funds had significant net purchases [31]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is promoting the expansion of the fifth listing standard [31]. - Mindray Medical is preparing for a Hong Kong IPO [32]. Industry - The government calls on leading enterprises to tackle key technologies in the field of network security [33]. - A meeting on pig production capacity regulation was held to adjust next year's pig supply [35]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is soliciting opinions on intelligent connected vehicle standards [35]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a development roadmap for new energy storage technology [35]. - Huawei released a report on future technological trends [35]. - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization [36]. Overseas - US new - home starts and building permits decreased in August [37]. - The US mortgage rate decreased, promoting related activities [39]. - The Bank of Canada cut interest rates for the first time since March [39]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates unchanged [40]. - Japan's exports and imports decreased in August [40]. - The UK's CPI remained high in August, and the central bank may keep interest rates unchanged [40]. International Stock Markets - US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow rising 0.57%, the S&P 500 falling 0.1%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.33% [41]. Commodities - Hong Kong plans to take measures to establish an international gold trading market [43]. Bonds - Yields of major Chinese interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [45]. - Hong Kong is promoting the development of bond - related business [45]. - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank completed a treasury cash deposit operation [47]. - The floating - rate bond market has expanded rapidly this year [47]. - US Treasury yields rose [47]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index also rose [48]. 4. Upcoming Events - There are multiple important events scheduled for September 18, including central bank operations, press conferences, and corporate product launches [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. However, the significant inventory build - up at the Shanghai Futures Exchange will limit the upside potential of the market [9]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the specific situation of mine resumption is unclear, which may cap the upside [10][11]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. In the short - term, the market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil, and the price will fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - The supply and demand of asphalt are both increasing. As the futures price has fallen to the lower end of the trading range, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - It is expected that PP will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [15][16]. - It is expected that plastic will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [17]. - The upside potential of PVC is limited in the near term. Attention should be paid to whether the recent increase in demand can be sustained [18][19]. - Coking coal remains in a relatively strong trend at present [20]. - The urea market is building a bottom, with a chance of a rebound later. However, the loose supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and the market lacks drivers [21][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 17, most domestic futures main contracts declined. The container shipping European line dropped nearly 7%, rapeseed meal and polysilicon fell more than 2%, and alumina, silver futures, and soybeans No. 2 dropped nearly 2%. In terms of gains, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 2%, SC crude oil and fuel oil rose more than 1%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:22 on September 17, in terms of capital flow in domestic futures main contracts, crude oil 2511, alumina 2601, and ten - year treasury bond 2512 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, CSI 500 2509, and SSE 50 2509 had capital outflows [7]. Hot - Spot Varieties Copper - Today, Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. The supply of refined copper will remain tight. The production of electrolytic copper in August decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The supply of scrap copper in September will decline, and smelters have maintenance plans. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has started to build up [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed high today. The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The supply from lithium mica raw materials decreased, and lithium spodumene became the main raw material. The demand is expected to increase during the peak season, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [10][11]. Crude Oil - Crude oil is gradually exiting the seasonal travel peak. The overall oil product inventory in the US continues to increase, and OPEC+ will adjust production. Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product. The supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken in the medium - to - long - term, and it will fluctuate in the short - term [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate has rebounded but is still at a relatively low level. The expected production in September will increase. The downstream construction rate has increased, but the shipment volume has decreased. The refinery inventory has increased slightly. The cost support is limited, and the supply and demand are both increasing [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has rebounded but is at a relatively low level. The enterprise operating rate has increased, and the production ratio of standard products has risen. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [15][16]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate has declined slightly. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the demand for agricultural films is expected to increase. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [17]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased and is at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low compared to previous years. The export outlook has weakened, and the inventory pressure is large. The upside potential is limited [18][19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low today but turned positive at the end. The spot price in the Shanxi market was stable, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The production and imports have increased, and the inventory is gradually shifting to the end - users. The demand has increased, and it remains in a strong trend [20]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. The daily production is expected to remain at a relatively high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as weak terminal demand and high inventory. The market is building a bottom, and there is a chance of a rebound [21][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index continues to weaken. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. However, the recent significant inventory accumulation on the SHFE will limit the upside space of the market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Analysis - On September 17, 2025, Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower throughout the day. As of September 12, the domestic spot smelting fee (TC) was -41.42 dollars per dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was -4.16 cents per pound, with TC/RC fees remaining weakly stable. Factory seasonal maintenance in September and October will lead to reduced production, and small and medium - sized smelters are facing profit pressure, so the supply of refined copper remains tight. In August, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and smelters have maintenance plans in September, so the electrolytic copper production in September is expected to drop sharply. Although prices have been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved. The realization of the peak - season expectations remains to be seen. The SHFE copper inventory has slightly increased, with an increase of 6,633 tons from last week. Increased imports and high prices have suppressed copper demand, and the inventory accumulation trend has gradually begun [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower throughout the day, closing at 80,560 yuan per ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 60 yuan per ton, and in South China it was 40 yuan per ton. On September 16, 2025, the LME official price was 10,144 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was -72.5 dollars per ton [4]. 3.3 Supply Side - As of September 12, the latest data showed that the spot smelting fee (TC) was -41.42 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -4.16 cents per pound [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 33,300 tons, a decrease of 401 tons from the previous period. As of September 15, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 149,800 tons, a decrease of 1,675 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 312,900 short tons, an increase of 1,021 short tons from the previous period [11].