Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The prices of most domestic futures contracts closed higher on July 21, with some showing significant increases and others experiencing declines. The market is influenced by various factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, geopolitical situations, and macro - policies [7]. - Different commodities have different price trends. For example, coking coal may be over - bought, soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, copper will fluctuate mainly with short - term strength, and lithium carbonate may correct after the sentiment stabilizes [3][5][10][12]. Summary by Commodity Coking Coal - The price opened high and closed high, rising nearly 8% on the day. The spot price increased, and imports in June rose by 172.15 million tons month - on - month. The market is active, but there are signs of over - buying due to sentiment [3]. Soybean Oil - The price of the main 09 contract closed down 0.47%. Supply is strong, but concerns about US weather and bio - fuel policies may drive up prices in the future, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. Copper - The price opened high and trended strongly, rising nearly 2%. Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate mainly with short - term strength [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened high and rose nearly 3%. Although the fundamentals have not fully reversed, the sentiment has improved. The price rebound is sentiment - driven and may correct later [11][12]. Crude Oil - Tensions in the Middle East have eased, but many factors still need to be monitored. The market has reflected OPEC +'s accelerated production increase, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13]. Asphalt - The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and considering the seasonal factors and price trends of crude oil, it is recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [15]. PP - The downstream demand is weak, the supply is increasing, and considering the macro - policies, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy at low prices or do 09 - 01 reverse spreads [16]. Plastic - The supply is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and considering the macro - policies, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy at low prices or do 09 - 01 reverse spreads [18]. PVC - The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and considering the macro - policies, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy at low prices or do 09 - 01 reverse spreads [19][20]. Bean Meal - The price rose slightly, but the increase is limited due to the loose supply. The trade situation may improve, which is beneficial to the market sentiment [21]. Rebar - The price rose 2.15%. There is a short - term callback risk, but considering the demand increase from the project, it is recommended to go long lightly at 3220 yuan [22][23]. Hot Rolled Coil - The price rose 2.20%. The demand is expected to increase in the long - term, and it is recommended to trade according to different price levels [24]. Urea - The price opened higher and trended strongly. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and there is a risk of correction [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuation of the anti - involution market is the main macro - logical line for domestic commodity and stock market trading. Policy expectations under the current economic situation lead to the continuation of this market. The upcoming release of the MIIT's ten - key industries' stable growth plan and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project jointly strengthen the anti - involution market, causing a general rise in domestic - priced commodities, especially industrial products [2][4]. - The background for the ten - key industries' stable growth plan is the challenges faced in the current industrial economy. The ideas for dealing with these challenges are stable growth and transformation, which are complementary. The stable growth is to consolidate the foundation, and the transformation is manifested in improving development quality and cultivating development momentum. The plan clarifies the direction of the anti - involution market, but the final implementation may not exceed expectations, and the market trend is expected to be tortuous with rapid rotation of hot sectors and varieties [6][8]. - For investment strategies, it is not advisable to go against the trend during the fermentation of the anti - involution market, and risks should be controlled and rapid price corrections should be guarded against when the market is extremely optimistic [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Event Introduction - On July 18, MIIT's Chief Engineer Xie Shaofeng stated that a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials would be implemented, and the specific plans would be released soon. On July 19, the start ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, a total installed capacity of 60 million kilowatts, and an expected annual power generation of about 300 billion kilowatt - hours. These two events jointly strengthened the anti - involution market, leading to a general rise in domestic - priced commodities [2]. Market Performance - Domestic - priced commodities, especially industrial products, witnessed a long - awaited general rise. Alumina once rose more than 8% during the session, leading the domestic commodities, and varieties such as glass, soda ash, coking coal, and caustic soda once rose more than 5% during the session. The table also shows the settlement price and price change rates of various commodities such as iron ore, rolled steel, and palm oil [2][3]. Economic Situation and Policy Expectations - From the second - quarter macro data, the overall economy has resilience but is weakening marginally. The real estate sector still drags down the economy, exports face challenges, and consumption plays a major role. The continuous negative growth of PPI for 33 months indicates an endogenous deflation risk in the Chinese economy, which forms a negative feedback loop. The market has strong policy expectations under this situation, and the anti - involution market continues [4]. MIIT's Work Plan - In the second half of the year, to maintain the stable operation and high - quality development of the industrial economy, MIIT will focus on two major actions. One is to implement a new round of stable growth actions, including printing stable growth work plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The other is to implement intelligent and green transformation and upgrading actions, including printing digital transformation implementation plans for the automobile, machinery, and power equipment industries and green development outlines for the aviation and shipbuilding industries [5]. Policy Background and Ideas - The background for the ten - key industries' stable growth plan is the challenges in the current industrial economy, such as external uncertainties and industrial structural contradictions. The ideas are stable growth and transformation. Stable growth aims to consolidate the foundation, and transformation is manifested in improving development quality and cultivating development momentum. To implement these, the development environment needs to be optimized [6]. Policy Impact and Investment Strategy - The upcoming release of the MIIT's ten - key industries' stable growth plan clarifies the direction of the anti - involution market and strengthens investors' expectations. The start of the hydropower project makes up for the market's concerns about the lack of demand - side pull in the "supply - side reform". However, the final implementation of the plan may not exceed expectations, and the market trend will be tortuous. For investment, it is not advisable to go against the trend during the market fermentation, and risks should be controlled when the market is overly optimistic [8].

1. Hot News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and three other departments have deployed work to further standardize the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry, including product price monitoring, product consistency supervision, and shortening the payment period for suppliers. The central fourth steering group also called for regulating the industry's competition order [2] - The Chief Engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Xie Shaofeng, pointed out that a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials have been released. Plans for industries like machinery, automobiles, and power equipment, as well as an implementation plan for the digital transformation of the automobile industry, will be issued [2] - EU member states have officially approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on the largest refinery of a Russian oil company in India, banning activities related to the "Nord Stream" gas pipeline, and lowering the oil price cap to $47.6 [2] - The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held in Nyingchi, Tibet. The project involves building 5 cascade power stations with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was established [3] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will optimize the option settlement price business from July 22, using the SVI volatility model to calculate the settlement price [3] 2. Sector Performance Key Focus - Urea, lithium carbonate, PVC, crude oil, and hot - rolled coils are the sectors to focus on [4] Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.91%, precious metals 28.64%, energy 3.26%, chemicals 12.63%, grains 1.26%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.79% [4] Commodity Sector Funds - The data shows the percentage changes in commodity sector funds, but specific changes for each sector are not clearly described [4] Commodity Futures Position Changes - The position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days are presented, but specific data for each sector are not clearly described [6] 3. Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% daily, 2.61% monthly, and 5.45% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.33% daily, 3.13% monthly, and 23.76% annually. Other indices such as the S&P 500, German DAX, etc., also have corresponding performance data [8] Fixed - income - 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, 0.10% monthly, and 0.12% annually; 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.05% daily, 0.16% monthly, and 0.52% annually [8] Commodity - The CRB commodity index rose 0.62% daily, 2.97% monthly, and 3.17% annually; WTI crude oil fell 0.31% daily, rose 3.58% monthly, and fell 6.38% annually [8] Others - The US dollar index fell 0.18% daily, rose 1.74% monthly, and fell 9.24% annually; the CBOE volatility index fell 0.67% daily, 1.91% monthly, and 5.42% annually [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In the overnight night - market, domestic futures showed a positive trend overall, while international oil prices declined slightly, and other commodities had mixed performances. In the financial market, A - share listed companies' performance was differentiated, and the brokerage industry had good performance. The domestic industrial product futures prices were rebounding, and the scale of bond ETFs reached a new high. [2][3][40] Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures: Most domestic futures contracts closed higher on Friday night. Soda ash and glass rose over 4%, coking coal rose over 3%, and several other commodities like PVC and caustic soda rose over 2%. However, soybeans and cotton declined slightly. [2] - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures rose 0.30% to $3355.50 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 0.25%; COMEX silver futures rose 0.32% to $38.43 per ounce. [2] - International oil prices: WTI crude futures fell 0.30% to $66.03 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 3.54%; Brent crude futures fell 0.42% to $69.23 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.61%. [3] - London base metals: All London base metals closed higher. LME zinc rose 3.18% and 3.12% weekly; LME aluminum rose 2.33% and 1.34% weekly. [4] - International agricultural products: Most international agricultural product futures rose. US soybeans rose 0.56%, US corn rose 1.74%, US soybean oil fell 0.75%, US soybean meal rose 1.97%, and US wheat rose 2.53%. [5] Important News Macroeconomic News - Trump criticized the Fed's high - interest - rate policy, believing it was harming the real estate market. He thought the US should have a 1% interest rate. [8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries. [8] - Shipping indices declined. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 86.39 points, and the China Containerized Freight Index fell 0.8%. [8] - The US - China economic and trade relationship has experienced ups and downs, but both sides are still important trading partners, and cooperation is the right path. [9] - The government will regulate the new - energy vehicle industry competition order. [9] - The July auto market demand weakened, and the expected monthly sales of passenger cars were about 1.9 million. [11] - The US and the EU have disputes over tariffs, and the EU is preparing a retaliatory plan. [11] - Iran will hold a new round of negotiations with three European countries. [12] - The third - round Russia - Ukraine negotiation will be held in Istanbul. [13] - The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors emphasized the importance of central bank independence and the challenges faced by the global economy. [16] - China will crack down on the smuggling of strategic minerals. [17] Energy and Chemical Futures - The EU extended the natural - gas storage requirement for two more years. [19] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced the delivery area and premium/discount for propylene futures. [21] - Methanol inventory in East China ports increased, and rubber inventory in Osaka Exchange decreased. [22] - The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, targeting the banking, energy, and military - industrial sectors. [23] Metal Futures - Mining activities in Myanmar's Wa State are expected to resume. [25] - The average price of polysilicon was 46.2 yuan/kg, with a profit of 6.1 yuan/kg. [26] - Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. [27] - A nickel - iron smelting park in Indonesia suspended production, which may affect the monthly output by about 1900 metal tons. [29] Black - Series Futures - A coal mine in Changzhi restarted production but has not reached full capacity. [31] - Canada will adjust its steel import tariff policy, which China opposes. [31] - Coal mines in Lvliang stopped or reduced production due to environmental inspections and production problems. [31] - The China Iron and Steel Association proposed measures to prevent over - capacity. [32] - Steel inventories increased, with an increase in construction steel and a decrease in hot - rolled coils. [32] Agricultural Product Futures - Imported cotton inventory decreased. [35] - Oil - mill soybean crushing volume was lower than expected. [35] - Australia may export experimental rapeseed to China. [35] - Pig - farming profits changed, with self - breeding and self - raising still profitable but at a lower level, and purchasing piglets resulting in losses. [35] - Sugar prices remained high in Pakistan. [35] - Trichlorosucrose producers had extended shutdowns. [36] - Malaysian palm - oil exports decreased in July. [37] Financial Market Finance - Among the 1540 A - share listed companies that disclosed semi - annual performance forecasts, 43.77% were positive, and the performance was differentiated. [40] - All 29 listed securities firms that disclosed semi - annual performance forecasts were positive, mainly due to the improvement of core business income and the recovery of overseas business. [40] - CITIC Securities believes that A - shares are becoming an incremental market, and post - mid - report season overseas investment may be a new direction. [40] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the A - share market's structural differentiation will continue, and new tracks are crucial. [41] Industry - The Third China International Supply - Chain Promotion Expo was successful, with more participants and cooperation agreements. [42] - The Beijing real - estate market had an uneven recovery in the first half of 2025. [43] Overseas - The US Treasury Secretary advised Trump not to fire the Fed Chairman. [45] - Japan's ruling coalition lost its majority in the Senate. [45] - Russia and Ukraine may hold a new round of negotiations in Istanbul. [45] International Stock Market - The next two weeks are the peak period for US stock earnings reports. [46] - NVIDIA's CEO Huang Renxun has been reducing his holdings of NVIDIA stocks, with a cumulative套现 of $215 million since June 20. [46][47] Commodity - Domestic industrial product futures prices are rebounding, and they are expected to continue the upward trend, but there are risks of adjustment after rapid price increases. [48] Bond - The scale of the first batch of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs has grown significantly, and the total scale of bond ETFs may have exceeded 5000 billion yuan. [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish outlook on asphalt, suggesting a strategy of buying the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Core Viewpoint - Due to factors such as the continued recovery of asphalt production, approaching peak season, recent rise in crude oil prices, and the expectation of increased demand, it is recommended to buy the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: This week, asphalt production rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 32.8% week - on - week, 6.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years. In July, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 144,000 tons (6.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 485,000 tons (23.6%) [1] - Demand side: This week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 25.0% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years, only slightly higher than the same period in 2023, constrained by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South. National asphalt shipments decreased by 4.67% to 249,000 tons week - on - week, at a moderately low level [1] - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to rise slightly this week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [1] - Geopolitical and market factors: Tensions in the Middle East have eased, but the US has imposed new sanctions on Iran. Global trade war concerns have subsided somewhat, but the threat remains. Crude oil prices have risen recently. As the peak season approaches, it is recommended to buy the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract rose 0.74% to 3,655 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,629 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,665 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,364 to 228,073 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,830 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract fell to 175 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Sinochem Quanzhou has intermittent production. The asphalt production rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 32.8% week - on - week, 6.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to May, national highway construction investment decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to decline slightly compared to January - April 2025. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was 0.6%, an improvement from - 0.4% in January - May. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 4.6%, a decline from 5.6% in January - May [4] - Downstream operating rates: As of the week ending July 18, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 25.0% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years, only slightly higher than the same period in 2023, constrained by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1][4] - Fiscal policy and social financing: The government has proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9% (previous value 8.7%), with new social financing of 4.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 900.8 billion yuan. New government bonds were 1.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 507.2 billion yuan, and new loans were 2.36 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 171 billion yuan [4] Inventory - As of the week ending July 18, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.1 percentage points to 17.0% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints The report presents the weekly data of iron ore inventory and related indicators, including downstream profitability, port inventory, steel mill inventory, consumption, arrival volume, domestic iron ore concentrate production, and steel mill operating rates. It shows the changes in these indicators compared to the previous week. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Downstream Profitability - The steel mill profitability rate is 60.17% this week, a decrease of 4.00 percentage points from the previous week [2]. Inventory Data - **Port Total Inventory**: Reached 13,785.21 this week, an increase of 19.32 compared to the previous week [2]. - **Steel Mill Imported Ore Inventory**: Stood at 8,822.16 this week, a decrease of 157.48 from the previous week [2]. - **Port Inventory by Variety**: - **Coarse Powder**: 10,690.06 this week, an increase of 61.93 from the previous week [2]. - **Lump Ore**: 1,595.25 this week, an increase of 70.39 from the previous week [2]. - **Pellets**: 419.35 this week, a decrease of 31.17 from the previous week [2]. - **Iron Concentrate**: 1,080.55 this week, a decrease of 81.83 from the previous week [2]. - **Trading Ore**: 9,054.54 this week, a decrease of 58.36 from the previous week [2]. - **Brazilian Ore**: 4,836.23 this week, a decrease of 58 from the previous week [2]. - **Australian Ore**: 6,117.82 this week, an increase of 74 from the previous week [2]. Supply and Demand Data - **Daily Average Port Clearance Volume**: 322.74 this week, an increase of 3.23 from the previous week [2]. - **Steel Mill Imported Ore Daily Consumption**: 301.25 this week, an increase of 2.76 from the previous week [2]. - **Arrival Volume**: 2,662.1 this week, an increase of 178.20 from the previous week [2]. - **Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Production**: 40.25 this week, an increase of 0.55 from the previous week [2]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal Production**: 242.44 this week, an increase of 2.63 from the previous week [2]. - **Steel Mill Operating Rate**: 83.46% this week, an increase of 0.31 percentage points from the previous week [2]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: 90.89% this week, an increase of 0.99 percentage points from the previous week [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of crude oil, PVC,沪铜, urea, asphalt, PP, plastic,豆油,豆粕,焦煤,螺纹钢, and热卷 are expected to show different trends. Crude oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the near term; PVC is expected to be in a low - level oscillation;沪铜 is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term; urea is expected to be in a short - term oscillation; asphalt is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices; PP and plastic are expected to be in low - level oscillations;豆油's basis is expected to be in a weak oscillation;豆粕 is expected to be strong in the short term;焦煤 is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term;螺纹钢 is expected to continue the oscillation and stabilization trend;热卷 is expected to run in an interval oscillation [3][6][11][14][15][17][18][20][22][23][25][27] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and concerns about supply disruptions have eased. However, the subsequent development of the situation needs attention [3] - Entering the seasonal travel peak, US crude oil inventories are at a low level, but overall oil product inventories have increased. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding expectations [3] - Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia, exceeding expectations. OPEC + is discussing suspending further production increases from October [3] - OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years, and the market has reflected the accelerated production increase of OPEC +. The IEA has raised the global crude oil surplus in 2025 [3] - Concerns about trade negotiations and sanctions policies need attention, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile [3][5] PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide has increased in some areas, and the PVC operating rate has increased, but downstream operating rates are low, and procurement is cautious [6] - India has postponed the BIS policy, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventories continue to increase, and the real estate market is still in adjustment [6] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [6] 沪铜 - The Fed's possible interest rate cut has led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the non - ferrous market. Copper smelting processing fees have stopped falling and stabilized, and copper supply expectations have improved [11] - Electrolytic copper consumption has increased, but downstream procurement sentiment is weak. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased, and the spot premium has strengthened [11] - The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to tariff expectations and the Fed's interest - rate decision [11] Carbonate Lithium - The price has risen due to market sentiment, but the actual impact on the fundamentals is small. Supply has increased, and inventories have continued to accumulate [12] - The price of spodumene has increased, providing cost support. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the new energy vehicle market has shown an upward trend [12][13] - The futures price is far higher than the spot price, and the market is dominated by sentiment. After the sentiment stabilizes, a correction is expected [13] Urea - The upstream has lowered prices to attract orders, and the downstream has replenished inventory at low prices, with good market transactions. This week's production has decreased, and next week's production is expected to increase [14] - Northern agricultural demand is coming to an end, and compound fertilizer factories' demand has increased slightly. Inventories have continued to decrease, but the rate has slowed down [14] - The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to news disturbances [14] Asphalt - The operating rate has increased but is still at a low level. July's production is expected to increase. Downstream operating rates have fluctuated, and shipments have decreased [15] - Inventories have increased slightly, and terminal project funds are restricted. Geopolitical risks have cooled down, and crude oil prices have risen [15][16] - It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [16] PP - The downstream operating rate has decreased, and US tariffs and import restrictions have affected the industry. Some overhaul devices have restarted, and the enterprise operating rate has increased [17] - Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand recovery is slow [17] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the development of the global trade war [17] Plastic - The operating rate has remained stable, and the downstream operating rate has increased slightly. US tariffs and import restrictions have an impact, but the cancellation of US ethane restrictions is beneficial [18] - New production capacity has been put into operation, and some overhaul devices have restarted. The off - season demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high [18][19] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the development of the global trade war [19] 豆油 - The price has risen, and if it breaks through the key resistance level, there may be room for further increase. The domestic oil mill operating rate and crushing volume are high, and the US soybean production outlook is optimistic [20] - International oil prices have risen, which may boost the demand for vegetable oils. Indonesia's potential increase in biodiesel blending may push up the price of palm oil and indirectly affect 豆油 [20] - The basis is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy and weather changes [20] 豆粕 - The price has risen strongly, breaking through the 3000 mark. The US soybean crop conditions have improved, and domestic inventories are high, but there is a large gap in fourth - quarter import orders [21][22] - Consumption demand has increased, but the adjustment of the aquaculture industry and high - temperature weather may reduce demand [22] - The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the fourth - quarter soybean procurement progress and the adjustment of the aquaculture industry [22] 焦煤 - The price has risen. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has resumed, and production at mines and coal - washing plants has increased. Mine inventories have decreased, and downstream inventories have increased [23] - The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a second - round increase. Downstream demand is strong, and steel mill profits have increased [23] - The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of Mongolian coal customs clearance and Indonesian export taxes [23] 螺纹钢 - The price has shown a "strong oscillation and then a decline" trend. Supply and demand have both weakened, with production and apparent demand decreasing. However, the profit per ton of steel is good, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be monitored [25] - Demand has continued to weaken seasonally, and engineering funds are at a low level. Inventories are at a low level, and the contradiction is not prominent. Policy expectations and raw material strength provide cost support [25] - The price is expected to continue the oscillation and stabilization trend, but attention should be paid to the possible correction of macro - optimistic expectations [25] 热卷 - The price has shown a "rising and then oscillating" trend. Production has increased marginally, but there may be a decline in the future. Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, and export has improved marginally, but there are still risks [26][27] - Inventories have decreased slowly, and there is a risk of passive inventory accumulation in the off - season. The price is under pressure but also has strong support [27] - The price is expected to run in an interval oscillation, with an upper pressure of 3350 yuan/ton [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Urea domestic demand is weak, and exports support the upward movement of the futures price. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the market is waiting for new drivers. Attention should be paid to news - related disturbances [1][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened high and moved high today, with a slight decline in the afternoon and a small gain. Upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders, and downstream buyers replenished at low prices, resulting in good market transactions. This week's urea production declined, but next week, most factories will resume production, and production will increase month - on - month. Northern agricultural demand is near the end, with sporadic purchases. After compound fertilizer factories started autumn fertilizer production, the operating load increased slightly. Currently, compound fertilizer factories have taken 30% of nitrogen fertilizer, and there is still an expectation of further purchases. However, due to the dominance of advance payments, the finished - product inventory in factories has increased, and the demand for urea has strong elasticity and limited support. Inventory continued to decline this period, mainly due to regional agricultural demand and export orders, but the decline rate has slowed down [1][11] Futures Market - The main 2509 contract of urea opened at 1750 yuan/ton, fluctuated strongly during the day, and finally closed at 1745 yuan/ton, up 0.29%. The trading volume was 188,727 lots, a decrease of 9,285 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 3,019 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,273 lots. Qisheng Futures' net long positions increased by 1,437 lots, and Zheshang Futures' net long positions decreased by 519 lots. CITIC Futures' net short positions increased by 1,642 lots, and Dongzheng Futures' net short positions increased by 3,271 lots. On July 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2,523, a decrease of 107 from the previous trading day, all from Anhui Zhongneng [2] Spot Market - After downstream buyers purchased at low prices and factories lowered prices to attract orders, the order - receiving situation was fair. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1730 - 1770 yuan/ton, with a few factories quoting slightly higher [3] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of basis, today's mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. On July 18, 2025, the national daily urea production was 197,400 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the operating rate was 84.03% [7][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The controversy within the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the non - ferrous metals market. The copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased this week, and the spot premium has strengthened. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to tariff expectations and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate decision [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, copper opened low and moved high with a strong intraday oscillation. Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July, causing the US dollar index to decline. As of July 11, 2025, the spot smelting fee was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.32 cents per pound. Although the copper smelting processing fee is still negative, it has stopped falling and stabilized. The copper concentrate inventory has increased this period, and the expected tight supply of copper may improve. After the 232 copper tariff is implemented, the domestic copper inventory is expected to accumulate. The demand from downstream industries is weak overall, except for the bright refrigerator production and sales data. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and weakened intraday, closing at 77,840. The long positions of the top 20 were 103,634 lots, a decrease of 4,798 lots; the short positions were 102,315 lots, a decrease of 1,478 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 60 yuan per ton, and in South China was 45 yuan per ton. On July 17, 2025, the LME official price was 9,620 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 34.5 dollars per ton [4] Supply Side - As of July 11, the latest data showed that the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.32 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 38,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous period. As of July 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 69,300 tons, unchanged from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 122,200 tons, a slight increase of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 241,800 short tons, an increase of 2,379 short tons from the previous period [8]

Overnight Market Trends - International oil prices rose strongly, with the US oil main contract up 1.72% at $66.31 per barrel and the Brent crude main contract up 1.55% at $69.58 per barrel [2] - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.41% at $3345.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.83% at $38.44 per ounce [3] - London base metals closed higher across the board, with LME zinc up 0.98% at $2737.50 per ton, LME tin up 0.83% at $33070.00 per ton, and LME copper up 0.45% at $9678.00 per ton [4] - Most domestic futures contracts closed higher, with coking coal up over 3%, rubber, 20 - gauge rubber, and coke up over 2%, and iron ore, PX, butadiene rubber, hot - rolled coils, and glass up over 1%. Low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) fell slightly [4] - US soybeans closed up 0.86% at 1022 cents per bushel, US corn down 0.86% at 402 cents per bushel, US soybean oil up 2.59% at 56 cents per pound, US soybean meal up 0.19% at $269 per short ton, and US wheat down 1.34% at 534 cents per bushel [4] Important News Macroeconomic News - One of the three Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities hit by the US last month was largely destroyed, while the other two were less damaged [7] - The EU is preparing a potential tariff list and export control measures against US services in case the trade negotiation with the US breaks down [7] - Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates again [8] - US unemployment benefit claims fell for the fifth consecutive week, but continued claims were near the highest level since 2021, indicating a possible rise in the unemployment rate [8] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of July 17, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.939 million heavy cases, down 3.22% week - on - week, hitting a more than 5 - month low. The national float glass output increased 0.18% week - on - week to 1.109 million tons [10] - As of the week ending July 16, Singapore's fuel oil inventory fell to a two - week low, light distillate inventory rose to a two - week high, and middle distillate inventory fell to a 10 - week low [12] - As of July 17, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory increased 2.26% week - on - week, hitting a new high [12] - As of the week ending July 11, US natural gas inventory increased 46 billion cubic feet week - on - week, down 4.9% year - on - year, but 6.2% higher than the 5 - year average [12] Metal Futures - As of Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina operating capacity utilization rate rose 0.82 percentage points to 80.74% [14] - Zangge Mining's lithium resource development was suspended due to a mining license issue [14] - Vedanta Resources' Zambian copper mine plans to renovate its smelter to increase production [14] - From July 21, trading fee standards for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts will be adjusted, and daily opening position limits will be set [15][16] Black - Series Futures - There were rumors of scale - based production cuts in Wuhai's coking industry, but the actual reduction was limited [18] - As of the week ending July 17, rebar production and apparent demand fell for the second consecutive week, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory increasing [18] - The average national profit per ton of coke was - $43, with significant regional differences [18] Agricultural Product Futures - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will focus on adjusting production capacity and stabilizing policies to promote stable pig production [20] - The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased [20] - Indonesia's biodiesel consumption has reached 7.42 million kiloliters this year, and the mandatory blending ratio has been raised from 35% to 40% [22] - Malaysia's August crude palm oil reference price rose, and the export tax will increase from 8.5% to 9% [22] - The annual grain production has a good foundation, with summer grain achieving stable and bumper harvests [22] - Global palm oil prices are expected to rise 33% by the end of 2025 due to supply tightening and increased demand [23] - Indonesia is studying raising the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%, with research expected to be completed by the end of the year [23] - Argentina's 2024/2025 soybean production forecast was raised, while the 2025/2026 wheat production forecast was lowered [23] - The proportion of US soybean and corn planting areas affected by drought decreased [24] - Brazil's 2025 soybean export and processing volume forecasts were raised [26] - The International Grains Council maintained its 2025/2026 global corn production forecast, with a slight improvement in the US outlook but a downgrade for Hungary and Romania [26] - US 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 soybean net sales were in line with or exceeded market expectations [26] Financial Markets Financial - A - share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.76%. Market turnover reached 1.56 trillion yuan [28] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.08%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.56%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$1.855 billion [28] - Insurance funds have surveyed A - share listed companies over 9800 times this year, focusing on high - dividend and technology - growth sectors [29] - Citi upgraded China and South Korea stock market ratings to overweight and downgraded India's to neutral [31] - South Korean investors are accelerating their allocation of Chinese assets [31] - The Beijing Stock Exchange plans to conduct internal tests on July 19 [32] - The latest list of Hangzhou's key companies planning to go public includes 315 companies [32] - Northeast Securities, Kaiyuan Securities, and Shanghai Securities ranked in the top 5% in the second - quarter market - making evaluation [32] - TSMC's Q2 net profit and revenue exceeded market expectations, and it raised its annual sales growth forecast [32] Industry - The consumption tax policy for ultra - luxury cars will be adjusted from July 20, with the threshold lowered to 900,000 yuan and new energy models included [34] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will focus on adjusting production capacity and stabilizing policies to promote stable pig production [34] - As of the end of June 2025, there were 19,756 private fund managers, managing 140,558 funds with a total scale of 20.26 trillion yuan [35] - 90 rural banks have exited this year, more than the total of last year [35] - The Securities Association of China launched a special survey on the information technology of securities brokerages' branches [35] Overseas - Trump said the US may implement the tariff rate on Japan as previously stated and may soon reach a trade agreement with India [36] - Japan's exports to the US fell for the third consecutive month in June due to US tariff policies [38] - Trump announced that the federal government will no longer fund California's high - speed rail project [38] - US initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level since mid - April, indicating a resilient job market [39] - US retail sales rebounded strongly in June, mainly driven by automobile sales [39] - The EU Commission proposed a new budget from 2028 - 2034, with a focus on defense, economic competitiveness, and agricultural subsidy reform [39] - Iran will not resume nuclear negotiations with the US unless the US meets its pre - conditions [39] - US, European stock indices rose. S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs. Some companies' Q2 earnings exceeded expectations [41] - PepsiCo, Novartis, Volvo, and Netflix's Q2 earnings either met or exceeded market expectations [42][43][44] Commodity Markets - International oil prices rose due to supply constraints in Iraq's Kurdish region and an unexpected decline in US crude inventory, but the increase was limited by rising gasoline inventory [46] - International precious metal futures closed mixed as Fed officials had different views on monetary policy [46] - London base metals rose across the board. US copper tariff policy changes affected the market, and LME copper inventory increased [46] - Trading fee standards and daily opening position limits for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts on the GZFE will be adjusted from July 21 [47] Bond Market - The domestic bond market was slightly stronger, with most Treasury bond futures rising slightly. The central bank conducted a net injection of 360.5 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [48] - Hong Kong's GSS+ bond issuance in 2024 exceeded $43.1 billion, accounting for 45% of Asia's international GSS+ bond market [50] - Japan's US Treasury holdings increased in May, while China's decreased [51] - US Treasury yields were mixed, mainly affected by Trump's statements on the Fed chair and market interpretations of economic data [51] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower on Thursday, while the central parity rate rose. The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [52]