光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二尿素现货市场继续走弱，主流地区现货价格多数继续下调 10 元/吨，山东、河南 地区市场价格分别为 1690 元/吨、1680 元/吨，日环比分别持平、下跌 10 元/吨。基 | | | | 本面来看，尿素供应水平依旧高位波动，昨日行业日产量 20.03 万吨，日环比下降 0.27 | | | 尿素 | 万吨。需求端在部分地区价格下调后成交有所好转，昨日主流地区产销率多数攀升至 | 偏弱震荡 | | | 100%以上，个别地区产销不足 30%，区域间表现仍有分化。整体来看，尿素现货市场 | | | | 各方博弈仍在持续，价格回落但成交相对良好。期货市场暂时缺乏新增利好驱动，盘 | | | | 面弱势运行为主。关注尿素日产变化、现货成交节奏、本周库存数据。 | | | | 周二纯碱现货市场价格继续维持稳定，贸易商环节报价跟随盘面情绪波动，昨日沙河 | | | | 地区重碱送到价格 1125 元/吨，日环比上调 2 元/吨。基本面来看 ...

一、研究观点 农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） | 品种 | 点评 周二，玉米近月 2601 合约加速减仓，期价延续调整走势。当日，玉米 1 月合约 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 减仓 10 万手，3 月合约持仓跟随调整，玉米 5、7 月合约面临技术压力位，期价 呈现调整表现。周初华北地区玉米价格稳中偏强，华北地区基层农户售粮积极性 | | | | 整体依然偏慢，货源供应按照价格变化有所调整。企业以刚需采购为主，根据到 | | | 玉米 | 货量灵活调整价格。销区市场玉米价格整体偏弱运行。玉米期货盘面高位回落， | 震荡下行 | | | 东北产区价格松动，销区港口贸易商受到到货成本变化的影响，加上下游销售利 | | | | 润较低，高价采购玉米的意愿一般，港口报价继续窄幅下探。技术上，玉米 3、 | | | | 5 月合约处于 5 月中旬形成价格压力带，期价上行遇阻，动力不足。短期来看， | | | | 玉米呈现技术调整要求，短线期价或将延续调整表现。 周二，CBOT 大豆跌至一个月低位，受出口担忧及南美丰产预期打压。阿根廷下 | | | | 调大豆等产品出口关税 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated weakly. The latest US ADP data showed positive signals in the labor market. The Fed's future interest - rate cut path and liquidity replenishment are in focus. Before the Fed's meeting, the market may be volatile, and investors should watch LME's performance around the rate - cut [1]. - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The supply of alumina remains high, and inventory is increasing. Although aluminum prices followed copper and reached new highs, the follow - up strength is weakening, and attention should be paid to downstream high - price stocking sentiment [1][2]. - Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel declined. Indonesia is strengthening mining regulation. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain has some support, but the upside is limited. The new - energy industry chain has raw - material support but faces pressure on the finished - product side. Nickel may oscillate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - Macro: US ADP data showed an average weekly increase of 4,750 private - sector jobs in four weeks ending November 22, ending job losses. The Fed's potential rate - cut space exists but may change with inflation. Domestically, the Central Economic Work Conference is under attention [1]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory increased by 1,125 tons to 165,675 tons; COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,208 tons to 401,929 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 425 tons to 29,531 tons; BC copper remained at 4,929 tons [1]. Aluminum - Futures: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 2,503 yuan/ton, down 2.15%, with an increase of 4,647 lots in positions to 287,000 lots. AL2601 closed at 21,835 yuan/ton, down 0.7%, with a decrease of 5,836 lots in positions to 189,900 lots. AD2601 closed at 20,870 yuan/ton, down 0.33%, with an increase of 57 lots in positions to 17,376 lots [1]. - Spot: SMM alumina price dropped to 2,805 yuan/ton. Aluminum ingot spot discount widened to 90 yuan/ton. Aluminum rod processing fees varied in different regions, and some aluminum - related products' processing fees changed [1][2]. - Supply: After the end of environmental inspections in the north, domestic mines resumed production, and Australian mines accelerated shipments. Some mines with revoked rights also resumed production, leading to an increase in ore supply [2]. Nickel - Futures: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.91% to $14,750/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.18% to 116,360 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 816 tons to 252,528 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 139 tons to 34,361 tons [2]. - Market: Indonesia is strengthening mining regulation. Nickel - iron prices are rising, and the new - energy industry chain has raw - material support but faces finished - product pressure [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market: On December 9, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 92,165 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan from the previous day. The flat - copper premium dropped by 20 yuan. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by 600 yuan, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 752 yuan [3]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged at 164,550 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 425 tons, and the total weekly inventory decreased by 9,025 tons. COMEX inventory increased by 2,410 tons, and the domestic + bonded - area social inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons [3]. Lead - Market: On December 9, 2025, the average price of 1 lead was 17,210 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. Some lead - related prices and premiums changed slightly [3]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged at 239,825 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 100 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 3,064 tons [3]. Aluminum - Market: On December 9, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased by 40 yuan. The price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi remained - 100 yuan, and the spot premium remained - 90 yuan. Some raw - material prices remained stable, and some downstream processing fees changed [4]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged at 525,800 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 127 tons, and the weekly total inventory increased by 8,353 tons. The electrolytic - aluminum social inventory remained at 59.6 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 1 million tons [4]. Nickel - Market: On December 9, 2025, the prices of some nickel - related products changed. For example, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate increased by 75 yuan, and the premium of 1 imported nickel over Wuxi increased by 450 yuan [4]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged at 253,344 tons. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 139 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased by 1,726 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the social nickel and stainless - steel inventories changed slightly [4]. Zinc - Market: On December 9, 2025, the主力 settlement price increased by 0.1%. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by 60 yuan. The domestic and imported zinc premium averages increased by 10 yuan [6]. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons, LME inventory remained unchanged at 57,750 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.17 million tons. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE decreased by 2,330 tons, and LME increased by 2,475 tons [6]. Tin - Market: On December 9, 2025, the主力 settlement price decreased by 0.3%. The SMM spot price increased by 2,000 yuan, and the prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by 2,800 yuan [6]. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 506 tons, LME inventory remained unchanged at 3,075 tons. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE decreased by 29 tons, and LME remained unchanged [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including those for spot premiums, SHFE near - far - month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, showing their historical data trends [7][8][12][21][27][33][40]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 合约跌 1.23%至 92800 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价维持 92750 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价维持 90350 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）维持 81930 元/吨。仓单 方面，昨日仓单库存减少 200 吨至 12920 吨。 2. 供应端，周度产量环比增加 74 吨至 21939 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 120 吨至 13484 吨，锂云母 产量环比增加 55 吨至 3076 吨，盐湖提锂环比减少 145 吨至 3090 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 44 吨至 2289 吨；12 月碳酸锂产量预计环比增加 3%至 98210 吨，其中锂云母提锂、锂辉石提锂环比增加， 盐湖提锂、回收提锂环比下滑。需求端，周度三元材料产量环比减少 564 吨至 18697 吨，库存环比 减少 519 吨至 18842 吨；周度磷酸铁锂产量环比减少 233 吨至 95480 吨，库存环比减少 660 吨至 1036 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） 工业硅日报 一、研究观点 点评 9 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 8340 元/吨，日内跌幅 3.47%，持仓 减仓 1816 手至 18.5 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9603 元/吨，较上一交易 日下调 45 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水扩至 510 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 55610 元/吨，日内涨幅 3.45%，持仓减仓 10493 手至 68874 手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水扩 至 3310 元/吨。工业硅厂进一步减产但不及下游采购跌量，当前成交集中 在套保单或未交付前期订单，工业硅短期难见趋势。光伏产业链自下而上 延续高库存、降排产逻辑，降价情绪未向上蔓延。交易所提保限仓且针对 交割品进行扩容，缓解挤仓压力。近月仓单增长较慢，盘面虚实偏高给予 当前近月支撑，谨慎盲目追空。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 二、日度数据监测 | | ...

软商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 0.3%，报收 63.87 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.04%，报收 13740 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 11985 手至 47.71 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | 震荡 | | | 14570 元/吨，较前一日下降 10 元/吨。国内市场方面，美联储 12 月议息会议临近， | | | | 降息 25bp 几成定局，关注官员讲话对后续降息路径的指引。国内市场方面，近期 | | | | 郑棉期价维持震荡走势。中共中央政治局于 12 月 8 日召开会议，后续还有中央经 | | | | 济工作会议，持续关注相关表述。基本面来看，从中国棉花信息网公布工商业库 | | | | 存数据反推，11 月棉花月度消费量仍保持相对高位，但是从半月度数据来看，11 | | | | 月下半月棉花消费量低于上半月棉花消费量，棉花上行驱动减弱。展望未来，当 | | | | 前扰动因素较多，多空因素交织，短期以震荡格局对待。随着时间的推移，棉花 | | | | 供需格局或有转 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面继续下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3079 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 44 元/吨，跌幅为 1.41%，持仓增加 11.6 万手。现货价格继续下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 30 元/吨至 3180 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 9.26 万吨。中央政治局会议指出明年经济工作要加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，相对 2024 年会议未再提 | | | | "超常规"，但提了"跨周期"，或预示 2026 年将会更加注重存量政策效应的释放，增量政策加码的可能 | | | | 性有所降低。煤焦价格近日连续下跌，钢厂利润扩大，对黑色系商品走势形成拖累。预计短期螺纹盘面仍 | | | | 窄幅整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2605 价格有所下跌，收于 757.5 元/吨，较前 ...

1. Index Trends - On December 09, the Shanghai Composite Index had a change of -0.37%, closing at 3909.52 points with a trading volume of 781.16 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index had a change of -0.39%, closing at 13277.36 points with a trading volume of 1122.793 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index had a change of -0.57% with a trading volume of 392.313 billion yuan, opening at 7400.93, closing at 7380.58, with a daily high of 7439.55 and a low of 7370.3 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index had a change of -0.71% with a trading volume of 305.522 billion yuan, opening at 7150.97, closing at 7121.33, with a daily high of 7185.11 and a low of 7103.83 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index had a change of -0.51% with a trading volume of 452.114 billion yuan, opening at 4611.38, closing at 4598.22, with a daily high of 4628.7 and a low of 4584.25 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index had a change of -0.71% with a trading volume of 110.095 billion yuan, opening at 3012.24, closing at 2997.96, with a daily high of 3015.45 and a low of 2991.65 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 dropped 42.47 points from the previous close, with sectors such as basic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and non - ferrous metals significantly dragging down the index [2]. - The CSI 500 dropped 51.04 points from the previous close, with the electronics sector significantly boosting the index, while non - bank finance, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals sectors significantly dragging it down [2]. - The SSE 300 dropped 23.53 points from the previous close, with communication and electronics sectors significantly boosting the index, while food and beverage, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals sectors significantly dragging it down [2]. - The SSE 50 dropped 21.4 points from the previous close, with food and beverage, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals sectors significantly dragging it down [2]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of -29.36, IM01 of -106.87, IM02 of -266.49, and IM03 of -512.42 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of -20.13, IC01 of -76.42, IC02 of -194.26, and IC03 of -402.83 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of -9.71, IF01 of -25.05, IF02 of -48.0, and IF03 of -93.78 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of -4.06, IH01 of -9.88, IH02 of -13.35, and IH03 of -28.39 [12]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides 15 - minute average data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts [22][24][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the energy - chemical commodities market is weak, with most varieties showing an oscillating trend. Crude oil prices continue to decline due to increased expected global supply surplus and geopolitical factors; fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all expected to maintain low - level oscillations [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices dropped. WTI January contract closed down $0.63 to $58.25/barrel, a 1.07% decline; Brent February contract closed down $0.55 to $61.94/barrel, a 0.88% decline; SC2601 closed at 443.4 yuan/barrel, down 5.9 yuan/barrel, a 1.31% decline. EIA raised the forecast of US oil production in 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day, expecting a year - on - year increase of 380,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day, a record high. In 2026, the forecast was lowered by 50,000 barrels per day, expecting a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. The market is expected to be in a state of oscillation [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 2.34% at 2,418 yuan/ton; the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 closed down 1.7% at 3,014 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to factors such as replenishment of blending raw materials, increased inflow of arbitrage goods, and weak downstream demand. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is also under pressure due to sufficient arrival of arbitrage vessels and high inventories at ports. It is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.41% at 2,943 yuan/ton. Refinery winter storage policies are gradually being implemented. It is estimated that the winter storage price will likely fall to a relatively low level in the past five years, between 2,800 - 2,900 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, down 1.07%; EG2601 closed at 3,691 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. PX futures main contract 601 closed at 6,780 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. The polyester market is expected to oscillate due to factors such as weak downstream demand and cost pressure [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2601 fell 80 yuan/ton to 14,985 yuan/ton, NR main contract rose 15 yuan/ton to 12,080 yuan/ton, and butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 65 yuan/ton to 10,450 yuan/ton. Due to improved weather in overseas producing areas, falling raw material prices, and insufficient demand support, the futures price is under pressure and expected to oscillate [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,075 yuan/ton. Iranian device shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January. Port inventories are expected to enter a destocking phase from mid - December this year to early January next year, but the significant destocking time may be postponed. Methanol prices are expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 6,190 - 6,450 yuan/ton. Supply will remain high, while downstream orders and starts will weaken marginally. Polyolefins are expected to gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but due to low valuations, they are expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the price of the East China PVC market was adjusted downward. Supply is expected to decline slightly this week, and domestic real - estate construction will gradually slow down, leading to a decline in the start - up rate of pipes and profiles. The PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data for multiple energy - chemical varieties on December 10, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data for varieties such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. [7]. 3.3 Market News - EIA stated in its monthly short - term energy outlook report that the expected global supply surplus is increasing. US oil production in 2025 is expected to reach a record high, with an upward adjustment of 20,000 barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day. In 2026, it is expected to decline by 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day [9]. - After talks in London, Ukrainian President Zelensky will share a revised peace plan with the US. The G7 and the EU are discussing replacing the price cap on Russian oil exports with a comprehensive shipping service ban [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [11][12][13][14][17][19][21][24][25][27]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][29][34][37][38][39]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), European line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [41][43][47][50][52][54][56]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, such as the internal - external spread of crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, the fuel oil/asphalt ratio, the BU/SC ratio, the ethylene glycol - PTA spread, the PP - LLDPE spread, and the natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][60][61][70]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Institute and Director of Energy - Chemicals, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market [72]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won many awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [73]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, a finance master. She has won several awards and is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [74]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC, an engineering master and an intermediate economist. He has relevant work experience and has passed the CFA Level III exam [75].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 市场全天震荡分化，三大指数涨跌互现。个股跌多涨少，沪深京三市超 4000 | 震荡 | | | 股飘绿，今日成交逾 1.91 万亿。截止收盘沪指跌 0.37%，深成指跌 0.39%， | | | | 创业板指涨 0.61%。随着 6 月以来的流动性行情告一段落，市场重新聚焦基 | | | | 本面逻辑，目前以 AI 为首的新质生产力题材普遍对未来三年的增长水平存 | | | | 在乐观预期，尤其是科技领域的上游硬件制造环节，供需错配下涨价预期明 | | | | 显，中期盈利能力可观。但是，对应题材自 6 月以来涨幅均较大，临近年底 | | | | 缺乏进一步事件性催化，自 11 月逐渐进入震荡行情。另一方面，以消费和 | | | | 周期题材为首的传统经济领域仍然处在震荡复苏的过程中，尽管存在一些补 | | | | 涨的逻辑，但短期很难进入基本面牛市。海外科技股同样存在预期分化，英 | | | | 伟达业绩指引继续强劲，谷歌也发布 ...