| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周一，玉米主力 2511 合约继续反弹，周末东北玉米现货收购报价上调，近月合 较浓。从周末开始，华北地区山东深加工企业玉米价格继续下调，今日部分企业 米上市时间临近，价格持续下跌，目前寿光金玉米价格 2370 元/吨，较前期最高 点（2530 元/吨）已经下跌 160 元/吨。河北个别深加工企业价格窄幅下调。河南 | 震荡 | | | 约领涨，新陈衔接期玉米期价上行。东北市场玉米价格偏强运行，南港价格上涨， | | | | 北港跟涨心态，带动整体东北地区玉米价格上调，部分地区现货紧缺，新季玉米 | | | | 少量上市，关注新粮上市情况较多，目前来看农户低价售粮意向一般，观望心态 | | | | 延续下跌的趋势。山东深加工早间到货车辆尚可，企业采购压力不大，随着新玉 | | | | 到货量一般，企业价格上调，刺激到货增加，但大趋势依然向下运行。技术上， | | | | 玉米 11 月合约减仓上行，期价短线反弹至 2230 压力位，短期关注价格的阶段性 压力表现。 | | | 豆粕 | 周一，CBOT 大豆上涨，因预期晚些发 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜窄幅震荡，SHFE 铜震荡偏弱。宏观方面，纽约联储的最新调查显示，美 | | | 国 8 月一年期通胀预期 3.2%，前值为 3.1%，三年期通胀预期持稳于 3%，五年期通胀预 | | | 期持稳于 2.9%，调查显示消费者 8 月通胀预期相对稳定，但对再就业前景信心降至历 | | 铜 | 史地位。库存方面来看，LME 库存下降 2125 吨至 148150 吨；SMM 周一统计国内精炼 | | | 铜社会库存较上周四增加 0.62 万吨至 14.69 万吨。需求方面，旺季渐临，但高铜价下游 | | | 畏高情绪严重，采购偏弱。美国糟糕的就业数据使得市场重启美联储降息预期的同时， | | | 加大了对美陷入衰退的担忧，影响了有色市场情绪，周内关注美衰退风险是否持续发 | | | 酵。 | | | 氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2601 收于 2955 元/吨，跌幅 0.34%，持仓增仓 4526 手至 27.7 万手。沪铝震荡偏强，隔夜 AL2510 收于 207 ...

黑色商品日报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 黑色商品日报 | | 当前基本面整体驱动有限，预计短期锰硅期价仍跟随黑色整体波动为主。关注后续钢招及市场情绪变化。 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁：周一，硅铁期价震荡走强，主力合约报收 5624 元/吨，环比上涨 0.72%，主力合约持仓环比下降 7225 | | | | 手至 23.36 万手。各地区硅铁汇总价格约 5200-5280 元/吨，内蒙地区报价较前一日上调 30 元/吨。昨日 | | | | 黑色板块整体走势偏强，硅铁期价重心随之上移。基本面来看，硅铁产量延续 8 月涨势，仍在持续增加。 | | | | 上周硅铁产量环比上涨 1.7%至 11.5 万吨，周产量位于近年来同期高位。需求端，8 月镁锭产量持续下降， | | | 硅铁 | 但同比仍然增加，样本钢厂硅铁需求量当周值环比小幅下降，钢厂囤货意愿不强，钢招价格持续下降，需 | 震荡 | | | 求端支撑有限。成本端，8 月电价逐渐结算，青海、宁夏地区电价稳中上涨。兰炭价格持稳，硅铁成本支 | | | | 撑增强。库存端，60 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 9 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.38%，报收 66.28 美分/磅，CF601 环比下降 0.72%，报收 13885 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 7881 手至 50.54 万手，新疆地区棉花市场价约 15350 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日持平，全国棉花市场均价 15428 元/吨，较前一日下跌 8 元/吨。 | | | | 国际市场方面，目前 9 月降息预期较强，且不断升温，关于是否会降息超过 25BP | | | | 的讨论也在逐渐增加，美元指数震荡走弱，美棉期价重心环比小幅上移，但持续 | 低位震 | | | 上行驱动不强。美棉期价低位震荡为主。国内市场方面，郑棉期价震荡走弱，下 | | | | 方踩在 60 日线附近。基本面来看，国内新棉已经零星上市，本年度新棉丰产预期 | 荡 | | | 较强，在当前节点，市场更多关注新棉丰产所带来的压力。依据当前情况来看， | | | | 新棉地区籽棉收购价格预计难以突破 6.5 元/公斤。综合 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 9 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一尿素现货价格继续偏弱运行，主流地区市场价格回落 10～30 元/吨不等，山东、 河南地区市场价格分别为 1680 元/吨、1690 元/吨，日环比均下降 10 元/吨。基本面 | | | | 来看，尿素供应水平窄幅波动，昨日行业日产量 18.54 万吨，日环比增 0.09 万吨。需 | | | 尿素 | 求端情绪依旧偏弱，昨日主流地区现货产销率 10%～100%不等，支撑不足。市场多 | 宽幅震荡 | | | 等待印标最终结果，消息方面扰动也依旧存在。预计尿素期货价格短期继续宽度波动 | | | | 为主，跟随印标结果题材仍有反复可能，持续关注印标动态、国内市场情绪变化。 | | | | 周一纯碱现货市场报价稳定，贸易商报价继续跟随盘面情绪波动，昨日沙河地区重碱 | | | | 送到价格 1203 元/吨，日环比跌 9 元/吨。基本面来看，行业检修和装置复产交替进 | | | | 行，生产水平波幅提升。昨日行业日度开工率 88.71 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 9 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2511 合约涨 0.89%至 74800 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 150 元/吨至 74600 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 150 元/吨至 72350 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）下跌 200 元/吨至 75350 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 830 吨至 34948 吨。 2. 消息面，宜春市生态环境局发布，根据江西省生态环境厅的决策部署，我市已于近期启动生态环境 违法行为查处"利剑行动"，依法严厉打击非法排污、生态破坏等生态环境违法行为，持续改善我市 生态环境质量。本次"利剑行动"将重点查处无证排污，擅自停运或不正常运行污染防治设施，通 过暗管等逃避监管的方式排放污染物等环境违法行为。对任何形式的生态环境违法行为，一经发现， 必将依法严惩，绝不姑息。 3. 供应端，周度产量环比小幅增加，周度产量环比增加 389 吨至 19419 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 160 吨至 12409 吨，锂 ...

光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 09 月 09 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场连续第二日上涨，Wind 全 A 收涨 0.7%，成交额 2.46 万亿 | | | | 元。中证 1000 指数上涨 0.9%，中证 500 指数上涨 1.13%，沪深 300 指数上涨 | | | | 0.16%，上证 50 指数下跌 0.08%。8 月以来，A 股行情呈现"缩圈"态势，个 | | | | 别题材交易拥挤度较高，考虑到前期获利盘了解等因素，短期回调属于正常 | | | | 现象。长期来看，美联储会议表态偏鸽，市场计价年内多次降息，A 股同样 | | | | 受益。此外，上海调整住房限购政策、公积金贷款政策和商业住房贷款利率 | | | 股指 | 定价机制，扩大潜在购房需求，地产银行板块上涨。此前，中共中央办公厅、 | 偏强 | | | 国务院办公厅印发了《育儿补贴制度实施方案》，标志着育儿补贴制度正式 | | | | 在全国范围内落地。这是我国近年来第一次发布普惠型中央财政政策，尽管 | | | | 总量仍有提升空间，但对 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 9 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价低位小幅企稳，其中 WTI 10 月合约收盘上涨 0.39 美元 | | | | 至 62.26 美元/桶，涨幅 0.63%。布伦特 11 月合约收盘上涨 0.52 美 | | | | 元至 66.02 美元/桶，涨幅 0.79%。SC2510 以 480.2 元/桶收盘，上 | | | | 涨 4.0 元/桶，涨幅为 0.84%。OPEC+如期召开石油产量会议，根 | | | | 据会议结果，8 个成员国同意 10 月将石油日产量提高 13.7 万桶。 | | | | 此次增产将意味着 OPEC+比原定计划提前了一年多开始解除第 | | | | 二层减产计划，即总量约为 166 万桶/日的自愿减产。总体而言， | | | | 此次 OPEC+8 国增产政策强于预期，但是实际产量的增幅却弱于 | | | 原油 | 会议前市场预期，此次增产幅度远低于 9 月和 8 月每月约 55.5 万 | 震荡 | | | 桶的增幅，也低于 7 月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic urea supply is at a low level, and there are expectations for an increase in industrial downstream operations and autumn fertilizers in demand. However, the fluctuations on both the supply and demand sides are currently relatively limited. The market's focus next week lies in the final results of the Indian tender. If the procurement volume and China's supply volume exceed expectations, it will still provide a phased boost to the market, and the futures market will continue to operate strongly, with the fluctuation range increasing again. Otherwise, market pressure will remain [5]. - Recently, the fundamentals of soda ash have shown little fluctuation, and the supply - demand support is insufficient. The warming of macro - sentiment and the continued fermentation of the anti - involution theme will bring emotional support to the market. The soda ash futures price may bottom out in the short term, but it should be treated as a rebound for now. A trend - like upward movement still requires more positive factors to materialize [6]. - Overall, there has been no obvious change in the supply - demand situation of glass, but the market may later trade on external factors such as macro - economic recovery and anti - involution. The futures market shows obvious signs of a phased bottom [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Market and Raw Materials in the Industrial Chain - **Futures Prices**: As of September 5, the weekly change rates of the main contracts of urea, soda ash, and glass were - 2.11%, + 0.31%, and + 1.36% respectively. The performance of related varieties this week was differentiated, with urea being the weakest and glass the strongest [12][14]. - **Raw Material Prices**: This week, coal prices showed minor fluctuations. For example, the Qinhuangdao Youhun动力煤 (5500) closing price decreased from 692 yuan/ton on August 29 to 682 yuan/ton on September 4. The prices of LNG in various regions in China also fluctuated. The prices of raw salt mostly remained stable, with a slight increase in some areas. The price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong increased by 3.59% week - on - week [17][21][24]. 3.2 Urea: Monitor Export Dynamics and Indian Tender Results - **Prices**: This week, the urea futures price weakened significantly, with a sharp decline on Wednesday. The closing price of the main 01 contract on Friday was 1713 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 2.11%. The spot price also showed a weakening trend. As of Friday, the market prices in Shandong and Henan were 1690 yuan/ton and 1700 yuan/ton respectively, down 30 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton from the previous Friday [5]. - **Supply**: Recently, there have been more urea maintenance and short - term shutdowns. The daily output of the industry still fluctuates around 180,000 tons. As of Friday, the daily output was 184,400 tons, a slight increase of 0.66% from the previous Friday. It is expected that the daily output will continue to fluctuate at a low level next week [5]. - **Inventory**: This week, the urea enterprise inventory increased by 0.85% to 1.095 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 3.48% to 620,900 tons. Although exports are ongoing and the port collection volume is rising, the enterprise inventory is still accumulating [5]. - **Demand**: The domestic rigid demand for urea is weak. It is currently the off - season for agricultural demand, and the downstream industry's operation is restricted by environmental protection. After the military parade, some downstream operations may recover, but due to the previous raw material reserves of some downstream enterprises, the subsequent procurement demand may not increase significantly. Therefore, exports are still the core factor affecting urea demand [5]. - **Indian Tender**: The results of the new round of Indian tenders are being announced. India received 5.66 million tons of supply bids this time, with the lowest price on the east coast at $462.45/ton, a decrease of $69.55/ton from the previous tender. Although the price has dropped, India's inventory is low, and the final procurement volume may exceed the original plan. The participation probability of Chinese supplies in this tender is high, and the market expects the actual supply volume to far exceed expectations [5]. - **Exports**: The window period for urea exports this year is about to end, and all export goods need to be declared before October 15. This means that there is still a possibility of further release of export demand in the next 1 - 2 months, and the fulfillment of export orders will also be further enhanced [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash: Limited Supply - Demand Support, External Factors Provide New Support - **Prices**: This week, the soda ash futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of the main 01 contract on Friday was 1302 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.31%. The spot price partially declined at the beginning of the week and remained stable in the second half of the week. The price of heavy soda delivered in the Shahe area on Friday was 1212 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous Friday [6]. - **Supply**: This week, the industry supply increased significantly. The operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.22%, a week - on - week increase of 3.75 percentage points, and the output was 751,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.53%. It is expected that the supply level will continue to rise next week [6]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of soda ash decreased by 2.43% week - on - week to 1.8221 million tons. However, due to a more than 40,000 - ton increase in social inventory this week, the overall supply in the middle and upper reaches is still slightly increasing [6]. - **Demand**: Recently, the demand for soda ash has been weakly stable. The daily melting volumes of float glass and photovoltaic glass are stable at 159,600 tons and 88,600 tons respectively. Next week, there will be new production lines for float glass, and there is an expectation of an increase in the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass, which is beneficial for the recovery of rigid demand for soda ash. Currently, downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [6]. 3.4 Glass: Obvious Bottom Characteristics in the Futures Market, Monitor External Factors for Boost - **Prices**: This week, the glass futures price fluctuated widely, first falling and then rising. The closing price of the main 01 contract on Friday was 1189 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.36%. The spot price slightly recovered, with the average market price of domestic float glass on Friday at 1156 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous Friday [7]. - **Supply**: Recently, the glass supply level has remained stable, with the daily melting volume in production at 159,600 tons. However, some production lines that were ignited earlier are expected to start production next week, and the glass output may increase [7]. - **Inventory**: This week, the glass enterprise inventory increased by 0.77% week - on - week to 63.05 million weight cases. The slight accumulation of inventory with stable supply reflects the weak demand [7]. - **Demand**: Recently, the glass demand has been average. Logistics control in the north has led to weak production and sales in some areas. The weekly apparent consumption of glass this week was 1.0828 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.09%. There is an expectation of a recovery in spot transactions in the future, but attention should be paid to whether there will be concentrated procurement in the market after the macro - environment warms up [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pressure on steel remains significant, and the valuation of steel is moderately low. For rebar, production slightly declined, inventory continued to rise for the sixth consecutive week with an increasing amplitude, and apparent demand dropped. However, as steel prices fell, the cost support has strengthened, and it is expected that the rebar futures will move in a narrow range in the short term. For hot - rolled coils, production slightly decreased, inventory continued to accumulate, and apparent demand significantly declined. But due to the high - level prosperity of the construction machinery industry, hot - rolled coil demand still shows strong resilience, and it is predicted that the hot - rolled coil futures will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term. For iron ore, the price first declined and then rose, and attention should be paid to the steel demand situation [152][153]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel 1. Price - This week, black - series commodities first declined and then rose. Iron ore showed strong performance, coke slightly declined, and steel fluctuated within a narrow range. Futures prices of rebar 2601, hot - rolled coil 2601, etc. had different degrees of changes, and spot prices also varied. International market hot - rolled coil prices fluctuated slightly, with some regions rising and some falling. Various steel price spreads such as basis, futures and spot spreads, and inter - month spreads also changed [6][7]. - The rebar 10 - 1 spread narrowed, and the 1 - 5 spread remained flat. The hot - rolled coil 10 - 1 spread widened, and the 1 - 5 spread narrowed. The screw - ore ratio and screw - coke ratio both narrowed [37][40][41]. 2. Supply - In July, the output of rebar decreased year - on - year, while the output of medium - thick wide - strip steel increased year - on - year. In mid - August, the daily average output of pig iron and crude steel of key steel enterprises increased month - on - month [44][46]. - The weekly output of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and five major steel products declined. The weekly output of rebar in the northern region decreased, while that in the southern and eastern regions slightly increased. The output of short - process and long - process rebar enterprises both declined [52][59][66]. - The blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and daily average pig iron output significantly decreased. The electric furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and steel mill scrap inventory also declined [68][74]. 3. Demand - The national building materials trading volume increased, the Hangzhou rebar delivery volume decreased, and the cement delivery volume decreased. The building materials trading volume in the southern region decreased, while that in the eastern and northern regions increased, and the cement mill operating rate increased [80][88]. - The apparent demand for rebar, hot - rolled coil, and five major steel products declined. The land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, and passenger car sales all increased [94][101]. 4. Inventory - The total inventory of five major steel products increased by 328,200 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 85,000 tons. The total rebar inventory increased by 166,100 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 843,700 tons. The rebar inventory in Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shanghai increased, while that in Guangzhou slightly decreased [105][111][118]. - The total hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 88,800 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 706,400 tons. The hot - rolled coil inventory in Tianjin, Lecong, Shanghai, and Chengdu all increased [124][130]. 5. Profit - The disk profits of rebar 01 contract and hot - rolled coil 01 contract both narrowed. The gross profit of Jiangsu steel mills' rebar and the profit of East China electric furnace steel both decreased [133][137]. 6. Trading Data - This week, the positions, trading volumes, and settled funds of rebar and hot - rolled coil all increased [139]. 7. Options - For rebar options, historical volatility and related ratios such as the put - call ratio of positions and trading volumes were presented [142][147]. Iron Ore 1. Price - This week, the iron ore futures price first declined and then rose, with the main contract i2601 closing at 789.5 yuan/ton. Port spot prices varied, and the block - powder spread narrowed. The 1 - 5 spread widened [155][166][172]. - The black - series product ratios such as the screw - ore ratio and coke - ore ratio changed [177]. 2. Supply - Australian iron ore shipments decreased, while Brazilian shipments increased. The arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 1.33 million tons month - on - month [184]. 3. Demand - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 112,900 tons month - on - month to 2.2884 million tons, and the ore handling volume decreased by 9,000 tons month - on - month [72]. 4. Inventory - The total iron ore inventory at 45 ports increased by 620,000 tons month - on - month, the trading ore inventory decreased by 530,000 tons month - on - month, and the total imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 670,000 tons month - on - month, with an imported ore inventory - to - consumption ratio of 31.85 [154]. 5. Trading Data - The trading volume, positions, trading amount, and settled funds of iron ore futures changed, and the number of warehouse receipts was also presented [180].