Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September, after entering the traditional peak season, the resumption of production in the north and south and the increase in crystalline silicon will become marginal drivers. There is room for improvement in the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon, and the overall operating center is expected to rise slightly. [4] - After the previous anti - involution news was fully priced, the trading center of polysilicon gradually shifted to the fundamental logic. Due to the limitation of the terminal power station yield, the acceptance of price increases in the component link has reached its peak, and the silicon material has cooled down along with the downstream market sentiment. Before specific policy measures are introduced, the market is still in a game between policy boost and fundamental drag. Polysilicon has entered a range mode with obvious top and bottom, and policy dynamics have a phased disturbance effect on the market. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - In August, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly. As of the 29th, the main contract closed at 8,420 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 4.97%. The polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly, and the main contract closed at 49,555 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 0.87%. [5] 3.2 Spot Prices - The spot prices were stable with a weak trend. The price of non - oxygenated 553 decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 8,550 yuan/ton, the price of oxygenated 553 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,650 yuan/ton. The price of P - type polysilicon increased by 5,000 yuan/ton to 40,000 yuan/ton monthly, and the price of N - type polysilicon increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 48,300 yuan/ton monthly. [5] 3.3 Spreads - In August, the spread between 553 widened, the spread between high - and low - grade products remained stable, the regional spread of 553 remained stable, and the regional spread of 421 remained stable. [5] 3.4 Supply - According to Baichuan, it is estimated that the domestic industrial silicon production in August was 369,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4% and a month - on - month increase of 11.6%. The monthly number of open furnaces increased by 31 to 293, and the furnace opening rate increased by 3.89% to 36.8%. [4][5] 3.5 Demand - In August, the polysilicon production increased by 18,200 tons to 125,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a month - on - month increase of 17%. The DMC production increased by 58,800 tons to 217,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.8% and a month - on - month increase of 37%. [4][5] 3.6 Inventory - In terms of the exchange, the overall inventory of industrial silicon in August increased by 30 tons to 253,300 tons, and the inventory of polysilicon increased by 110,400 tons to 206,400 tons. In terms of social inventory, the inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 7,000 tons to 435,900 tons in August, among which the factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 261,400 tons; the inventory at Huangpu Port remained stable at 55,000 tons, the inventory at Tianjin Port increased by 2,000 tons to 70,000 tons, and the inventory at Kunming Port increased by 1,000 tons to 49,500 tons. The monthly inventory of polysilicon decreased by 30,400 tons to 24,500 tons. [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous decline in August, the current yield of the ten - year treasury bond once approached 1.85%, more than 45BP higher than the reverse repurchase policy rate. With long - term capital and economic fundamentals both favorable to the bond market, the allocation power of the bond market is gradually increasing, and the bond market adjustment is basically in place. However, the expectation of anti - involution promotes the continuous strengthening of the equity market, which is negative for long - term bonds. Short - term bonds are relatively stable under the expectation of worry - free capital, and the yield curve is expected to become steeper [6] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Bond Market Performance: Risk Appetite Rebounds, Treasury Bonds Decline Significantly - **Yield and Price Changes**: In August, the capital market remained loose, and there was no significant marginal change in the economic fundamentals. However, with the rebound of risk appetite, equity assets rose significantly, suppressing bond market sentiment. Long - term bond yields increased significantly, and the treasury bond yield curve steepened. As of August 29, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.63%, 1.84%, and 2.14% respectively, with changes of - 1.53BP, 6.12BP, 13.35BP, and 19.25BP compared to July 31. The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were 102.418 yuan, 105.515 yuan, 107.81 yuan, and 116.55 yuan respectively, with changes of 0.06%, - 0.20%, - 0.62%, and - 2.16% compared to July 31 [5][8] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: On August 29, the trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bonds were 35,583, 61,424, 81,725, and 153,398 hands respectively, with changes of - 219, - 2479, - 37, and 473 hands compared to July 31. The open interests were 76,824, 136,875, 199,086, and 140,380 hands respectively, with changes of - 33,460, - 55,118, - 32,215, and - 17,436 hands compared to July 31 [13] - **Net Basis Spread**: The net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts showed narrow - range fluctuations [14] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of short - term and long - term treasury bonds rebounded from low levels [16][19] 2. Policy Dynamics: Central Bank's Flexible Injection, Capital Interest Rates First Rise Then Fall - **Reverse Repurchase Operations**: From August 1 to 29, the central bank's reverse repurchase injection was 631.46 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase maturity was 636.8 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 5.34 billion yuan. As of August 29, the reverse repurchase balance was 227.31 billion yuan [23] - **Buy - out Reverse Repurchase**: In August, the central bank carried out 50 billion yuan of 6 - month buy - out reverse repurchase operations and 70 billion yuan of 3 - month buy - out reverse repurchase operations. After deducting the maturity amount, the net injection of buy - out reverse repurchase in August was 30 billion yuan [24] - **MLF Operations**: In August, the central bank carried out 60 billion yuan of medium - term lending facility (MLF) operations, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan, marking six consecutive months of "increased roll - over". Together with the 30 billion yuan of buy - out reverse repurchase, the total net injection of medium - term liquidity in August reached 60 billion yuan, the highest monthly level since February this year [27] - **LPR and PSL**: In August, the loan prime rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.00% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.50%. In July, the net withdrawal of the pledged supplementary lending (PSL) was 23 billion yuan, and the balance was 126.39 billion yuan [28] 3. Bond Supply and Demand: Government Bond Issuance Accelerates - **Government Bond Issuance**: In August, the government bond issuance was 232.94 billion yuan, with a maturity of 100.03 billion yuan and a net issuance of 132.91 billion yuan. Among them, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 84.9 billion yuan, and the net issuance of local bonds was 48.01 billion yuan. As of August, the cumulative net issuance of treasury bonds was 467.11 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 70.14%; the cumulative net issuance of local bonds was 570.58 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 79.25% [42] - **Special Bond Issuance**: In August, the issuance of new special bonds slowed down [43] - **Bond Issuance Multiple**: In July, the overall multiple of local bond issuance increased month - on - month [45] - **Cash Bond Trends**: The yield of treasury bonds decreased slightly, the yield of US treasury bonds fluctuated sideways, and the credit spread of credit bonds was slightly compressed [46][49][50] 4. Strategy Views: Long - term Bonds Bearish, Short - term Bonds Stable - Given the long - term capital and economic fundamentals favorable to the bond market, the adjustment of the bond market is basically in place. However, the strengthening of the equity market is negative for long - term bonds, while short - term bonds are relatively stable, and the yield curve is expected to become steeper [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September, the resumption of alumina production will increase, and warehouse receipts will gradually accumulate, further strengthening the expectation of oversupply. Due to the rainy season in Guinea and the domestic parade period, there are strong disturbance factors on the ore side. Alumina should be mainly shorted on rallies, but chasing the decline is not recommended. - Before the "Golden September" peak season, the stocking speed of downstream sectors has started quickly. There is a possibility of exceeding expectations in the demand for electrolytic aluminum during the peak - season cycle, and the profits of the aluminum industry will continue to shift from the upstream to the downstream. Driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut in September and the domestic peak season, electrolytic aluminum has strong upward momentum. - Due to the peak - season mismatch of aluminum alloy, there is room for the spread of far - month contracts to continue to repair. Opportunities such as the widening of the AL2510 - AO2510 spread and the narrowing of the AL2511 - AD2511 spread can be tracked. Attention should be paid to the pace of the US interest - rate cut and the confirmation or falsification of strong demand. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price - In August, the alumina futures fluctuated weakly. As of the 29th, the main contract closed at 3036 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 5.8%. The Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated strongly, and the main contract closed at 20740 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 1.1%. The aluminum alloy futures also fluctuated strongly, and the main contract closed at 20350 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 6%. [5][6] 3.2 Spread - In August, alumina changed from a discount of 16 yuan/ton to a premium of 190 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum's discount widened from 20 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton. [5][9] 3.3 Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that in August, the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina will increase to 91.09 million tons, with a production of 7.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. In August, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum slightly increased to 43.9 million tons, with a production of 3.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The molten - aluminum ratio slightly dropped to 73.7%. [3][5] 3.4 Demand - As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the processing end has started to recover steadily. In August, the average operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises was 59.7%, an increase of 1.04% compared with July. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips increased by 2.3% to 65.6%, the operating rate of aluminum foils increased by 0.24% to 69.7%, the operating rate of aluminum profiles increased by 0.63% to 50.63%, and the operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 1.19% to 62.95%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0.21% to 53.15%. [3][5] 3.5 Inventory - In terms of exchange inventories, in August, alumina inventories increased by 82,200 tons to 88,200 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventories increased by 8,815 tons to 124,605 tons; LME inventories increased by 20,800 tons to 481,150 tons. In terms of social inventories, alumina monthly inventories increased by 15,000 tons to 63,000 tons; aluminum ingot monthly inventories increased by 76,000 tons to 620,000 tons; aluminum rod monthly inventories decreased by 13,000 tons to 134,000 tons. [3][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In September, the PVC fundamentals still face pressure, with high inventory levels, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about a new round of speculative expectations brought by unexpected policies [2] Summary by Directory Supply:检修计划增加有限，预计产量维持高位 - In early August, many production enterprises resumed operations after maintenance, leading to a decrease in loss volume compared to July. It is expected that maintenance in September will be high at the beginning and low at the end, and the production volume will remain at a high level with fluctuations [2][5] - The operating rate increased slightly month - on - month. The 8 - month production volume increased by 60,000 tons, all from ethylene - based plants, and it is expected to remain at a high level with fluctuations subsequently [19] Demand:房地产施工将逐步回升，预计管材和型材开工增加 - In August, the downstream operating rate recovered but decreased significantly year - on - year. It is expected to remain stable in September. The real estate transactions are fluctuating at a low level. Although the real estate construction will recover, it is still weak overall, providing limited support for the demand of PVC downstream pipes and profiles. With India imposing higher anti - dumping duties on Chinese PVC, exports are expected to decline [2][21][34] - In August, downstream enterprises made small - scale stockpiling, and as the September delivery approached, traders were actively trading [28] Inventory:供需压力仍在，总库存高位震荡 - The fundamentals still show strong supply and weak demand. As the basis weakened significantly, refinery inventories flowed into the social market, leading to an increase in total inventory. The warehouse receipts also increased rapidly. In September, domestic demand is expected to recover, but exports are expected to decline, and the fundamental pressure remains high. It is expected that the inventory will remain at a high level with limited changes [2][44] Spread:预计基差逐步走强 - The fundamentals still show strong supply and weak demand. As the delivery approaches, the near - month contract has a relatively large decline [54] Profit:电石法和乙烯法利润表现偏弱 - The profit performance of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weak [58]

Report Title - PX & PTA & MEG Strategy Report for September 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX supply is expected to reach a high level in September, with short - process MX being abundant and new MX production adding to PX output. However, downstream TA maintenance is increasing, and with the continuous compression of TA processing fees, TA devices may have further maintenance. Thus, PX fundamentals are weak, and it may show a weak and volatile trend without significant crude oil fluctuations [150]. - For PTA, although the polyester operating load is rising and the fundamentals are improving, the price performance is weak, and the TA processing fee is still compressed below 200 yuan/ton. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is facing challenges, with increasing external tariff risks. The TA price is expected to have support and show an overall volatile trend [150]. - MEG's operating load has climbed to a high level. In September, there are both maintenance and restart of devices. The port inventory is low, and the spot liquidity is tight. With supply contraction and demand increase, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the short - term price may be volatile and strong [150]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. PX&PTA&MEG Price: Follow Crude Oil Price Oscillation - **Futures Prices**: From July 31 to August 28, 2025, PTA futures closing price decreased from 4808 yuan/ton to 4792 yuan/ton (-0.3%), MEG increased from 4414 yuan/ton to 4465 yuan/ton (1.2%), and PX decreased from 6928 yuan/ton to 6886 yuan/ton (-0.6%) [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: For PTA basis, it changed from - 17 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton (-17.6%); MEG basis changed from 71 yuan/ton to 64 yuan/ton (-9.9%); PX basis changed from 188 yuan/ton to 97 yuan/ton (-48.6%). The TA - EG spread decreased from 394 yuan/ton to 327 yuan/ton (-17.0%), and the TA - PX*0.656 spread decreased from 337 yuan/ton to 313 yuan/ton (-7.2%) [16][19][22]. - **International and Domestic Price Differences**: The ethylene glycol price difference between Europe and China increased from 52 dollars/ton to 150 dollars/ton (186.8%) [26]. 2. PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Recovery - **PX**: As of August 29, Asian PX operating load was 75.6% (month - on - month increase of 2.7 percentage points), and China's was 83.3% (month - on - month increase of 3.4 percentage points). The 160 - million - ton PX device of Fuhua Group restarted in early September. Multiple new reforming devices are expected to be put into operation starting from August, which may increase PX output [33][58][59]. - **PTA**: As of August 29, PTA operating load was 70.4% (month - on - month decrease of 9.3 percentage points). There were device maintenance and new device production. The autumn maintenance plan is concentrated in September - October [37][60]. - **MEG**: As of August 28, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 75.13% (month - on - month increase of 5.79%). There are device restart and maintenance plans in September [52][61]. 3. PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: Tariff Extension for 90 Days - **Imports and Exports in July 2025**: China's PX imports were 78.20 million tons (month - on - month increase of 2.17%), PTA exports were 37.42 million tons (month - on - month increase of 46.66%), and ethylene glycol imports were 59.14 million tons (month - on - month decrease of 4.27%) [64][65][76]. - **Polyester Exports**: In July 2025, the total polyester export was 120.33 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%. Different polyester products had different export trends [75][77]. 4. PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Downstream Finished Product Inventory Rebounds - **PTA**: Polyester factories' PTA raw material inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [86]. - **MEG**: As of August 25, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was about 50 million tons, reaching a low level [89]. 5. Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Faces Challenges - **Domestic Polyester Data**: As of August 29, the polyester operating load was 90.3% (month - on - month increase of 2.5%). The inventory days of some polyester products changed, and the cash flow also changed [92]. - **Terminal Demand**: In July, textile and clothing exports faced downward pressure. With the extension of tariffs for 90 days, the export expectation of Chinese textiles and clothing is expected to improve [106][103]. 6. PX&PTA&MEG Positioning Situation - **Futures Positions**: From July 31 to August 28, 2025, PTA total positions decreased from 1,493,200 lots to 1,360,753 lots, MEG total positions decreased from 357,146 lots to 320,792 lots, and PX total positions increased from 243,421 lots to 289,662 lots [119].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the rubber main - producing areas enter the peak production season, and abnormal weather can intensify rubber price fluctuations. The import volume growth of rubber is limited due to slightly lower dry content and weather disturbances. [106] - The "Golden September and Silver October" period provides some demand support. After the parade, the tire manufacturers in Shandong may see a rebound in production, but high finished - product inventories limit the recovery elasticity. Tire exports may have a small increase at the end of the third quarter, but semi - steel tire exports may slow down. [106] - The social inventory of natural rubber is neutral, with the difference between dark and light - colored rubber inventories expanding. [106] - Overall, supply may be affected by unexpected weather, demand is stable domestically and weak externally, and inventory is neutral. Rubber prices are expected to have a bottom - support and high price elasticity. [106] - For butadiene rubber, the supply pressure eases, there are many maintenance plans in September - October, and demand has positive support. Short - term butadiene rubber prices are expected to remain strong. [106] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price - Futures prices of rubber main contracts showed increases. For example, on August 28, 2025, the RU main contract price was 15,945 yuan/ton, up 1,385 yuan from July 31, 2025. [5] - The basis of rubber main contracts changed. The RU main contract basis was - 945 yuan/ton on August 28, 2025, down 935 yuan from July 31, 2025. [7] - The spread between RU index and NR index gradually widened. On August 28, 2025, the spread was 3,017 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 379 yuan. [12] - The spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber was at a high level, enhancing the substitution of synthetic rubber. [18] 3.2 Supply - In June 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, and consumption was expected to increase by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons. [25] - In China, natural rubber imports decreased year - on - year, while mixed rubber imports continued to rise year - on - year. [42] - The supply pressure of butadiene decreased in September. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene decreased slightly, and there were many new butadiene device projects in 2025 - 2028. [43][48] - Butadiene rubber production was at a high level, and there were maintenance plans for butadiene rubber devices in September - October. [49][53] 3.3 Demand - In 2025, global natural rubber consumption was expected to increase by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons. In China, tire exports increased in July 2025, and automobile production and sales continued to grow. [60][67] - The average operating rates of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased slightly in August. The inventory turnover days of all - steel tires decreased slightly, while those of semi - steel tires increased slightly. [61][65] 3.4 Inventory - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased compared with July 27, 2025. [74] - As of August 29, 2025, the warehouse receipts of natural rubber were 178,640 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber were 45,662 tons. [78] - As of August 24, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.27 million tons, including 797,000 tons of dark - colored rubber and 473,000 tons of light - colored rubber. [82] - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,700 tons. [85] 3.5 Position - The total position of the RU main contract showed certain fluctuations. The total positions of NR and BR changed, with the NR position increasing and the BR position increasing significantly from July 31 to August 28, 2025. [87][89] 3.6 Other (Options) - The report presented the historical volatility and historical volatility cone of natural rubber and butadiene rubber options, as well as the put - call ratios of option trading volume and position. [92][97]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester staple fiber market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand. The supply side has seen the resumption of some maintenance and load - reducing devices, and the downstream yarn mills' load has increased month - on - month with continuous improvement in demand. The cost side is expected to fluctuate as the TA device autumn inspections increase under low processing fees and the EG port inventory is at a low level with tight spot liquidity. The price of polyester staple fiber is expected to follow the cost side fluctuations, and the improved demand supports the price to be relatively strong. The implementation of peak - season demand should be monitored in the future [71]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Polyester Staple Fiber Price: Following Crude Oil Price Fluctuations - From July 31 to August 28, 2025, the PF main contract closing price increased from 6464 yuan/ton to 6526 yuan/ton, a change of 62 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 1.0%. The 14D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price increased from 6650 yuan/ton to 6655 yuan/ton, a change of 5 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 0.1%. The basis decreased from 186 yuan/ton to 129 yuan/ton, a change of - 57 yuan/ton with a decline rate of 30.6% [4]. - For the price spreads, from July 31 to August 28, 2025, the PF01 - PF05 spread changed from - 40 yuan/ton to - 68 yuan/ton, a change of - 28 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 70.0%. The PF05 - PF09 spread changed from 98 yuan/ton to 164 yuan/ton, a change of 66 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 67.3%. The PF09 - PF01 spread changed from - 58 yuan/ton to - 96 yuan/ton, a change of - 38 yuan/ton with a growth rate of 65.5% [9]. 3.2 Polyester Staple Fiber Cost - end: Pay Attention to Device Restoration - **PTA**: In July 2025, PTA production was 6.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 290,000 tons (4.8%) and a month - on - month increase of 130,000 tons (2.1%). As of August 29, the PTA operating load was 70.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.3 percentage points. Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton device was under maintenance, Sanfangxiang's 1.2 million - ton device was shut down, and the second line of its 3.2 million - ton new device was put into production. In July 2025, China's PTA exports were 374,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 119,100 tons (46.66%), and the cumulative export volume from January to July was 2.2311 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 403,700 tons (15.32%) [15][17][18]. - **MEG**: In July 2025, ethylene - based ethylene glycol production was 991,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. Syngas - based ethylene glycol production was 674,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. The domestic ethylene glycol production was 1.665 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. As of August 28, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 75.13% (a month - on - month increase of 5.79%), and the operating load of oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) - based ethylene glycol was 77.74% (a month - on - month decrease of 1.55%). In July 2025, China's ethylene glycol imports were about 591,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42,700 tons due to a significant reduction in US imports. On August 25, the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area was about 500,000 tons [22][24]. 3.3 Polyester Staple Fiber Supply - end: Golden September and Silver October - As of August 29, the polyester staple fiber operating load was 92.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. Xiamen Xinhongxiang's 100,000 - ton device restarted in late August. As of August 29, the polyester staple fiber inventory was 13.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 days [25][29][34]. 3.4 Polyester Staple Fiber Demand - end: Order Improvement - As of August 29, the polyester yarn operating rate was 63.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.9 percentage points; the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom operating rate was 65%, a month - on - month increase of 6 percentage points. In July 2025, China's yarn production was 1.992 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. Among them, Xinjiang's yarn production reached 275,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.5%. The cumulative yarn production in the first seven months of 2025 was 13.426 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [39][40]. - In July 2025, the export of uncombed polyester staple fiber (primary + recycled) was 128,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,600 tons (8.94%), with an export average price of 919.35 US dollars/ton. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 937,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons (29.42%) [50]. 3.5 Polyester Staple Fiber Terminal Demand: Terminal Demand Expected to Shrink - In July 2025, due to the weakening of the "rush - to - export" effect and the obstruction of re - export trade, textile and clothing exports faced downward pressure. The textile and clothing export was 26.77 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 2%. Among them, textile exports were 11.6 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.7%; clothing exports were 15.16 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The cumulative export from January to July was 170.74 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, with the growth rate 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the first half of the year and lagging behind the national goods trade level [55]. - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. The cumulative online retail sales of physical goods from January to July was 7.079 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, accounting for 24.9% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. Among them, the sales of food, clothing, and daily - use products increased by 14.7%, 1.7%, and 5.8% respectively [58]. 3.6 Polyester Staple Fiber Positioning Situation - **Futures Positioning**: On August 28, 2025, the positions of PF2601, PF2605, and PF2509 were 23,246 lots, 157 lots, and 2,483 lots respectively. Compared with July 31, 2025, the month - on - month changes were 10,892 lots, 88 lots, and - 80,719 lots respectively. Compared with August 28, 2024, the year - on - year changes were 13,666 lots, 59 lots, and 111 lots respectively [63]. - **Options**: The report provides charts of historical volatility and historical volatility cones of PF, as well as charts of the closing price of polyester staple fiber and the put - call ratio of option trading volume and open interest [64][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The liquidity-driven market is not over yet. It may shift from a broad-based rally to a focus on specific themes. The index still has room to rise as the conditions for ending the liquidity-driven market are not yet mature [3]. - When making long positions, strategy is crucial. Fundamental growth themes are likely to be short-term hotspots. One can go long on A500 and hedge with CSI 300 index futures. The ChiNext Index can also be a long target with beta adjustment and hedging using index futures, while the STAR 50 may experience increased short-term volatility due to high weight concentration [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Conditions in August - **Liquidity Drives Index Up**: In August, the liquidity-driven market pushed the Wind All A index up by 10.93%. Last week, it rose 1.9% with an average daily trading volume of 2.98 trillion yuan. Small-cap growth stocks were strong, and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices led the gains. The CSI 1000 rose 11.67%, the CSI 500 rose 13.13%, the CSI 300 rose 10.33%, and the SSE 50 rose 7.22% [3][6]. - **Index Valuation**: The index valuations are above the one - standard - deviation level of the past five years, and the equity risk premium has significantly decreased [3]. - **Sector Impact**: The electronics sector drove the index up in August [13]. - **Fund Flows**: In August, 45 billion yuan of new equity funds and 14 billion yuan of hybrid funds were established, with more incremental funds to come. The margin trading balance increased by 256.4 billion yuan to 2.22 trillion yuan [28]. 2. Analysis of Liquidity - Driven Market - **Historical Comparison**: In the ROE downward cycle, there were significant index rallies in the second half of 2014 and early 2019. The current rally combines factors from both periods, and the conditions for ending the liquidity - driven market are not yet met [3]. - **Style Preference**: Growth styles and small - cap stocks perform better in the liquidity - driven market [32]. - **Sino - US Capital Market Linkage**: There are different ways of linkage between Chinese and US capital markets, including economic correlation, capital correlation, negative correlation, risk re - balancing, and independence [36]. - **Foreign Capital Inflow**: Foreign capital inflows tend to favor large - cap growth styles [38]. 3. Index Financial Indicators - The report presents the main financial indicators of various indices in the first quarter of 2025, including profitability, growth, and risk indicators [44]. 4. Index Futures Performance - **CSI 1000**: The index rose 11.67% monthly, and the annualized basis discount converged [45]. - **CSI 500**: The index rose 13.13% monthly, and the annualized basis discount converged downward [48]. - **CSI 300**: The index rose 10.33% monthly, and the annualized basis discount converged downward [51]. - **SSE 50**: The index rose 7.22% monthly, and the annualized basis discount converged [53]. 5. Index Option Indicators - The report provides historical volatility, volatility cones, and PCR indicators for the CSI 1000, CSI 300, and SSE 50 options [58][64][72]. 6. Trading Slippage - The report shows the trading slippage for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures contracts [80][83][86][88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, domestic methanol supply will gradually recover, and imports will remain at a high level, but the marginal increase in overall supply is limited. Due to the improvement in profits, MTO plants are expected to resume production, and demand is expected to pick up in September. Overall, the marginal increase in supply is limited, demand will pick up marginally, and total inventory is expected to peak. Therefore, methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom - area, and investors should pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [3] 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply: 9 - month domestic start - up stabilizes, and output is expected to increase slightly - **Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profits fluctuated within a narrow range. For example, coal - to - methanol profits in Inner Mongolia and Shandong showed different trends over time [6][7][8] - **Domestic Production**: In August, the domestic start - up rate was slightly lower than in July, and production decreased by 290,000 tons. It is expected that production in September will recover to around 9.7 million tons [3] - **Import Profit and Foreign Supply**: Iranian plants were operating normally in August, and production is expected to be stable in September. The import volume increased significantly to around 1.8 million tons in August. As the India - China price spread widened significantly, the subsequent arrival volume is expected to peak, and the import volume in September is expected to remain high but with limited growth [3][15] 3.2 Demand: MTO plants have the expectation of resuming production, and demand is supported - **Downstream Margins**: As methanol prices weakened, downstream profits generally improved. It is expected that MTO plants will have a resumption plan in September. For example, the margins of acetic acid, MTO, formaldehyde, etc. showed different trends over time [27][33] - **Downstream Start - up Rates and Purchases**: The start - up rates of MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, acetic acid, etc. showed different trends over time. Factory orders, MTO purchases, and traditional downstream purchases also had their own characteristics [39][40][43][44] 3.3 Inventory: It is expected that inventory will peak in September - **Total Inventory**: There was an unexpected inventory build - up, and it is expected that the total inventory will peak in September [45] - **Inland Inventory**: There were many refinery overhauls in August, and inventory was transferred to the social sector, but the actual inventory still increased [48] - **Port Inventory**: With a significant increase in arrival volume, port inventory quickly reached a five - year high [58] 3.4 Price Spreads: The basis fluctuated and strengthened - **Domestic Regional Price Spreads**: There were various domestic regional price spreads, such as the spreads between different regions like Lubei - Inner Mongolia North, Lubei - Inner Mongolia South, etc., which showed different trends over time [62][63][65] - **Domestic Freight Rates**: Freight rates between different regions, such as Inner Mongolia North - Lubei, Inner Mongolia South - Lubei, etc., also had their own trends [71][72] - **Domestic Logistics Windows**: The logistics window between Shanxi - Lubei showed certain fluctuations [79][80] - **Internal - External Price Spreads**: There were price spreads between Southeast Asia - China and India - China, which also changed over time [81] - **Basis and Calendar Spreads**: The basis fluctuated and strengthened. Calendar spreads such as 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 also showed different trends [87][88][89] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts: Slightly increased compared to last month - The number of warehouse receipts showed a slight increase compared to the previous month [93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract dropped 2.33% to 78,140 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,600 yuan/ton to 80,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped 1,600 yuan/ton to 77,700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 50 yuan/ton to 76,980 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,480 tons to 28,967 tons [3]. - Fundamentally, on the supply side, production slowed down slightly, with the weekly output decreasing by 108 tons to 19,030 tons. Mica - derived lithium production decreased significantly, followed by salt - lake - derived lithium, while spodumene - derived lithium production increased slightly, and recycled lithium production remained basically stable. On the demand side, the total demand in August increased by 6% month - on - month. September is a traditional peak season, downstream production schedules may remain prosperous, and with the decrease in the customer - supplied ratio, downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to stock up. In terms of inventory, the social inventory remains at 141,000 tons, but it has shown a continuous slight destocking trend in recent weeks, with upstream destocking and downstream and other sectors restocking [3]. - A mine in Jiangxi renewed its safety license, and the price corrected significantly yesterday. In the short term, the price may fluctuate widely within a range. Attention should be paid to whether there is new information on the supply side and the September 30th node [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract was 78,140 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 78,140 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 889 US dollars/ton, down 31 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,205 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,915 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 6,425 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,500 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan [5]. - For lithium carbonate, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 80,000 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 77,700 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan. For lithium hydroxide, the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 76,980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 81,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 71,860 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.05 US dollars/kg, up 0.2 US dollars [5]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 56,200 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,300 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 3,020 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 12,667.99 yuan/ton, up 1,431 yuan [5]. - Among the precursors and cathode materials, the price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 77,500 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer - type) was 76,850 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 72,750 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 91,075 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 114,100 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 119,100 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 117,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of ternary material 811 (power - type) remained unchanged at 145,900 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 35,205 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage) was 33,805 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 30,960 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power - type) was 35,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (capacity - type) was 32,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) remained unchanged at 227,400 yuan/ton [5]. - In the cell and battery market, the price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.385 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.4 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.33 yuan/piece, up 0.01 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.325 yuan/Wh, up 0.002 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power - type) was 0.33 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 5.75 yuan/Ah, up 0.2 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.301 yuan/Wh, unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: The report presents charts of the prices of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) over time from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts show the prices of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][14] - **Price Differences**: Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [17][19][20] - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts illustrate the prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][26][28] - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts show the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33] - **Inventory**: Charts present the weekly inventory of downstream, smelters, and other sectors of lithium carbonate from January to August 2025 [37][39] - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the cash production profit of lithium carbonate from外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [43]