光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 光大期货金融期货日报 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场全天震荡走强，创业板指大涨超 3%。个股涨多跌少，沪深京三市超 3600 | | | | 股飘红，今日成交 1.83 万亿。截止收盘沪指涨 1.19%，深成指涨 2.4%，创业 | | | | 板指涨 3.39%。近期，股指期货市场围绕 10 月以来的中枢下沿持续震荡，大 | | | | 小盘指数分化有限，板块间轮动频繁，市场情绪相对温和。12 月政治局会议 | | | | 与中央经济工作会议相继召开，短期内政策对市场的影响有望增强。从政策 | | | | 表述来看，重要会议提到"实现'十五五'良好开局"，预计明年 5%的 GDP | | | | 增长目标不会改变。政策发力方向仍主要集中在"稳内需"和"促进新质生 | | | 股指 | 产力快速发展"。会议提到，"必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合"， | 震荡 | | | 提振居民收入水平和消费能力是宏观通胀预期回升的重要条件。同时强调 | | | | "保持 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心大幅反弹，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘上涨 0.67 美元至 | | | | 55.94 美元/桶，涨幅 1.21%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.76 美元 | | | | 至 59.68 美元/桶，涨幅 1.29%。随后在电子盘时间，油价再度拉 | | | | 涨。SC2601 夜盘以 424.9 元/桶收盘，上涨 1.6 元/桶，涨幅为 0.38%。 | | | | 特朗普下令全面封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮，受此影响， | | | | 油价低位反弹。特朗普在社交媒体上发文说，认定委内瑞拉现政 | | | | 府是"外国恐怖组织"。近来，特朗普多次公开宣称，美国将开 | | | | 始对加勒比海地区的"毒贩"实施陆地打击，并提及委内瑞拉和 | | | 原油 | 哥伦比亚。一个星期前，美国在委内瑞拉海岸扣押了一艘受制裁 | 震荡 | | | 的油轮。EIA 公布的库存报告显示，上周美国原油库存减少，汽 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term steel futures market is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation, and the iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon futures markets are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures market was in a narrow - range oscillation. The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3081 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 12,500 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and trading volume decreased. The market has expectations for the anti - involution theme, which boosts market confidence. In November, investment data continued to weaken, and crude steel and pig iron production were at low levels. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term rebar futures market is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2605 of iron ore futures rose to 761 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 1% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 240,000 lots and an increase of 10,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices increased. Supply from Australia and Brazil increased, while supply from other countries decreased. Iron - making water production decreased, and port inventories continued to increase while steel mill inventories decreased. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose. The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1067.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.61%, with an increase of 16,355 lots in positions. Some spot prices decreased, while some increased. Coal mines mainly focus on safety production, supply remains stable, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Downstream demand is weakening, and the short - term coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1514.5 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.73%, with a decrease of 2120 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable. Due to heavy pollution warnings, coke production decreased, and supply tightened. Steel mill procurement slowed down, and coke demand decreased. The short - term coke futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The main contract closed at 5736 yuan/ton, down 0.69%, with an increase of 5134 lots in positions. Some regional prices decreased. The production cost is still high, but the production reduction rate has slowed down. Steel tenders are ongoing, but terminal steel demand for manganese has decreased, and inventories are at a high level. The short - term manganese silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The main contract closed at 5482 yuan/ton, down 1.01%, with an increase of 716 lots in positions. Some regional prices decreased. The production cost has decreased slightly, and production is gradually decreasing. Steel tenders are ongoing, but terminal steel demand is weak, and inventories are at a high level. The short - term ferrosilicon futures market is expected to fluctuate [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: Different contracts of various varieties have different spreads and their changes, such as the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar is 9.0 (unchanged), and the 5 - 10 month spread is - 31.0 (down 2.0) [4] - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts of various varieties and their changes are provided, for example, the basis of the 01 contract of rebar is 190.0 (up 3.0) [4] - **Spot Prices**: The latest spot prices and their changes in different regions are given, like the Shanghai spot price of rebar is 3280.0 (up 10.0) [4] - **Profits and Spreads**: Information on profits and spreads of different varieties is presented, such as the rebar futures market profit is 25.1 (down 11.7), and the coil - rebar spread is 165.0 (up 6.0) [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price trends of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][19][20][22] - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of different inter - period contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][26][30][32][33][36][37] - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread trends of different inter - variety contracts, including the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [41][43][45] - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: It shows the profit trends of rebar main contracts, including futures market profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][50] 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of the black research department, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [53] - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of the resource product research department of the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal [53] - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [53] - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [54]

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周二，玉米主力 2603 合约延续调整。当日，玉米 1 月合约减仓约 5 万手，主力 | | | | 2603 合约增仓下行，3、5 月合约受制于周度均线压制，期价呈现调整表现。今 | | | | 日期货价格小幅下跌，北港玉米价格有所下滑，但东北产区价格基本无调整，目 | | | | 前价格下成交较为有限，但基层农户售粮意向一般，上货也较为有限。华北地区 | | | | 玉米价格整体维持稳定。山东深加工企业门前到货量尚可，个别企业价格窄幅调 | | | | 整，主流价格稳定，河南、河北企业价格保持稳定。从供应来看，华北地区干粮 | 震荡下行 | | | 供应依然偏少，基层收购依然没有放量。从需求来看，深加工企业和饲料企业按 | | | | 需采购，市场整体供需处于相对平衡的状态。技术上，玉米 3、5 月合约处于 5 | | | | 月中旬形成价格压力带，期价上行遇阻，动力不足。周初，玉米呈现技术调整要 | | | | 求，预计远期价格延续调整表现。 | | | ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，01合约收盘价1630元/吨，日环比持平。05合约收盘 关注气头企业降负荷与检修企业复产的博弈情况。需求情绪走弱，储备需求多观望 | 震荡 | | | 价1673元/吨，跌幅0.89%。现货市场多数止跌，昨日山东、河南地区市场价格分别 | | | | 稳定在1700元/吨、1670元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平窄幅波动，昨日行业日 | | | | 产量19.51万吨，日环比小幅提升0.05万吨，供应端波动幅度不明显，但后续也仍需 | | | | | 区间 | | | 为主，且近几日部分地区环保限产影响下游板材等行业开工，尿素刚需也受到挤压 | | | | 。昨日主流地区产销率仍位于5%~60%区间，成交氛围有所转弱，个别区域仍达到 | | | | 100%及以上，区域间继续分化。短期尿素市场缺乏有效支撑，企业出货压力较大， | | | | 后续仍有降价去库可能。尿素期货市场日内继续维持区间震荡趋势， ...

一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 合约涨 1.4%至 101060 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 650 元/吨至 95150 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 650 元/吨至 92650 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 500 元/吨至 83530 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 210 吨至 15260 吨。 2. 消息面，消息面，继宁德时代枧下窝矿被关停后，"亚洲锂都"宜春又现大动作。最新消息，根据《矿 产资源法》，《矿产资源开采登记管理办法》和《自然资源部关于进一步完善矿产资源勘查开采登记 管理的通知》等相关要求，宜春市自然资源局拟对高安市伍桥瓷石矿等 27 宗采矿许可证予以注销。 目前，宜春市自然资源局已对拟注销的 27 宗采矿许可证进行公示，公示期(30 个工作日)满后予以公 告注销。注销后，生态修复等相关义务由原矿权人履行。 3. 供应端， ...

Group 1: Index Trends - On December 16th, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 1.11% to close at 3824.81 points, with a trading volume of 733.294 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.51% to 12914.67 points, with a trading volume of 990.879 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by 1.74% with a trading volume of 361.622 billion yuan, opening at 7302.16, closing at 7181.62, reaching a high of 7302.16 and a low of 7143.61 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index declined by 1.58% with a trading volume of 284.969 billion yuan, opening at 7101.67, closing at 7001.32, reaching a high of 7102.77 and a low of 6962.65 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped by 1.08% with a trading volume of 103.324 billion yuan, opening at 2980.94, closing at 2954.79, reaching a high of 2986.08 and a low of 2946.6 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped by 1.08% with a trading volume of 103.324 billion yuan, opening at 2980.94, closing at 2954.79, reaching a high of 2986.08 and a low of 2946.6 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 dropped 127.46 points from the previous close, with sectors such as non - ferrous metals, machinery, and power equipment significantly pulling the index down [2]. - The CSI 500 fell 112.64 points from the previous close, with non - ferrous metals, power equipment, and electronics sectors having a notable downward pull [2]. - The SSE 300 decreased 54.51 points from the previous close, and sectors like electronics, communication, and power equipment pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 50 dropped 32.28 points from the previous close, with pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors having a negative impact [2]. Group 3: Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For the IM series, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 4.47, IM01 of - 75.84, IM02 of - 234.12, and IM03 of - 475.0 [10]. - For the IC series, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 6.25, IC01 of - 60.11, IC02 of - 177.2, and IC03 of - 374.84 [10]. - For the IF series, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 10.05, IF01 of - 26.66, IF02 of - 54.69, and IF03 of - 98.76 [10]. - For the IH series, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 8.35, IH01 of - 13.44, IH02 of - 15.38, and IH03 of - 29.46 [10]. Group 4: Report Information - The report was written by the Macro - Finance Group of Everbright Futures Research Institute [19]. - The financial engineering analyst is Wang Dongying, with futures qualification number F03087149 and trading consultation number Z0019537 [19]. - The macro - finance team members include Zhu Jintao, Yu Jie, Zhao Fuchu, and Wang Dongying, each with their respective educational backgrounds, positions, and professional qualification numbers [20].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价窄幅震荡，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，11 月美国非农新增 | | | | 就业 6.4 万人，高于市场预期，但 10 月就业数据被大幅下修，失业率升至 4.6%，为 2021 | | | | 年以来最高水平，就业市场正在降温得到美官方数据确认，但能否足以改变美联储对 1 | | | | 月降息的看法仍具有不确定性，但明年 1 月降息概率再回升。另外，美国 12 月 Markit | | | | 综合 PMI 初值 53，低于预期 53.9 和前值 54.2，其中制造业和服务业均低于预期，订单 | | | 铜 | 增长放缓，价格指数攀升。国内来看，中央财办有关负责人表示，扩大内需是明年排在 | | | | 首位的重点任务，明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。库存方面，LME 铜库存维持 165875 | | | | 吨；COMEX 铜仓单增加 1652 吨至 412444 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 3558 吨至 45784 | 吨； | ...

| 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 761.0 | 753.0 | 8.0 | I05-I09 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 0.0 | | I09 | 739.5 | 731.5 | 8.0 | I09-I01 | -44.0 | -45.5 | 1.5 | | I01 | 783.5 | 777.0 | 6.5 | I01-I05 | 22.5 | 24.0 | -1.5 | 光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 7 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2 ...

软商品日报 软商品日报 | 二、日度数据监测 | | --- | | 品种 | 合约价差 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力基差 | 环比 | 现货 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 1-5 | -5 | -15 | 1185 | 115 | 新疆 | 14968 | 84 | | | | | | | | 全国 | 15130 | 70 | | 白糖 | 1-5 | 80 | -10 | 267 | 44 | 南宁 | 5340 | -20 | | | | | | | | 柳州 | 5400 | -30 | 三、市场信息 1、12 月 16 日棉花期货仓单数量 3199 张，较上一交易日增加 33 张，有效预报 4022 张。 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 1.27%，报收 63.13 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.07%，报收 13945 元/吨，主 ...