Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to continue rising in the future, but the upside may be limited due to concerns about a US recession and high copper prices affecting downstream demand [1]. - Alumina is recommended to be sold on rallies, while electrolytic aluminum may have strong upward momentum in September, and there is room for the spread of aluminum alloy to continue to repair [1][2]. - Nickel prices are likely to continue to oscillate with an upward bias as the marginal improvement in nickel - iron and the new energy sectors becomes more evident [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated weakly. A rising gold price may indicate increased risk aversion and potential for copper value re - evaluation. Three factors to watch include the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season in China, and the implementation of anti - involution policies in some domestic industries. However, the US recession expectation and high copper prices may limit the upside of copper prices [1]. Aluminum - Alumina oscillated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy oscillated strongly. Alumina production resumption is increasing, and inventory is piling up. It is recommended to sell on rallies but be cautious about chasing the decline. Downstream demand for electrolytic aluminum may exceed expectations during the peak season, and the industry profit is shifting from upstream to downstream. There is room for the spread of aluminum alloy to repair [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless steel inventory decreased slightly, but supply increased, and cost support strengthened. The demand for ternary materials in the new energy sector is increasing, and the price of nickel sulfate may continue to rise. First - grade nickel inventory decreased, and consumption increased significantly. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - On September 1, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 79,830 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan/ton from August 29. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 73,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton. LME and SHFE copper inventories changed slightly [3]. Aluminum - On September 1, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, while the inventory of alumina decreased by 0.7 million tons [4][5]. Nickel - On September 1, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased. LME nickel inventory increased by 300 tons, while SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 504 tons [4][5]. Zinc - On September 1, 2025, the main settlement price of zinc increased by 0.5%. The social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons [6]. Tin - On September 1, 2025, the main settlement price of tin decreased by 0.7%. The inventory of SHFE tin increased by 75 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including those on spot premiums and discounts, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME and SHFE inventories, social inventories, and smelting profits for various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, covering data from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][15]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-09-02 上证 50 较前收盘价上涨 4.73 点，有色金属,医药生物,电子等板块对指数向上拉动明显，食品饮料,银行,非银金融等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 电子 医药生物 有色金属 通信 电力设备 计算机 房地产 公用事业 传媒 食品饮料 机械设备 轻工制造 纺织服饰 家用电器 社会服务 交通运输 钢铁 基础化工 商贸零售 煤炭 非银金融 综合 石油石化 建筑材料 农林牧渔 建筑装饰 美容护理 环保 银行 国防军工 汽车 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 图 4：中证 500 各板块对指数贡献的涨跌点数 一、指数走势 09 月 01 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.46%，收于 3875.53 点，成交额 12083.48 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 1.05%，收于 12828.95 点，成交额 15416.13 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.84%，成交额 5645.68 亿元，其中开盘价 7475.0，收盘价 7501.15，当日最高价 7502.59，最低价 7424.34； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.94%，成交额 5361.61 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 点评 1 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 8495 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.89%，持 仓减仓 6966 手至 28.5 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9364 元/吨，较上 一交易日下调 7 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格回调至 8600 元/吨，现货 升水扩至 290 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 52285 元/吨， 日内涨幅 6.03%，持仓政策 5412 手至 15.04 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅 料价格涨至 49000 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 49000 元/吨，现货 贴水扩至 1500 元/吨。工业硅南北复产和晶硅增量成为边际驱动，整体 运行重心有望小幅抬升。前期反内卷消息充分计价后，多晶硅交易重 心逐步偏移至基本面逻辑。因终端电站收益率限制，组件环节对涨价 的接受度见顶，硅料跟随下游市场情绪降温。在具体政策举措出台之 前，市场仍位于政策提振和基本面拖累的博弈之间，多晶硅进入顶底 明显的区间模式，政策动态对盘面有阶段性扰动效应。重点关注 930 工 信部节能专项监察结果以及产业链库存去化 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs) are rated as "volatile" [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Corn: The futures price continues to rise, but the spot price is expected to be weak before the new grain is listed. The 11 - month contract shows a five - consecutive - yang pattern. It is recommended to maintain a volatile mindset before the new grain is listed [2] - Soybean Meal: The domestic two - meal futures prices rise to repair the deviation. The market has a divergence on whether there will be a shortage of soybeans in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The price is mainly volatile, and short - term long positions are recommended [2] - Oils: The domestic three major vegetable oils are volatile due to the lack of external market guidance. The basis is rising steadily. With the start of school, the market expects the demand to improve. Short - term trading is recommended [2] - Eggs: The spot price is weakly volatile, and the futures price is in a low - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [2] - Pigs: The futures price rebounds slightly, and the spot price rises. The fundamentals and market sentiment change little, and the price is expected to be volatile [3] Market Information - The weekly soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills from August 22 - 29 was 2430000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 160000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 170000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 370000 tons, 410000 tons higher than the average of the same period in the past three years [3] - The soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills in August was about 10000000 tons, at a historical high. The import volume of soybeans in September is still high, and the monthly crushing volume is expected to be about 9500000 tons [4] - On August 29, the crushing profit of imported Brazilian soybeans for October - November shipments was - 111 to - 127 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was - 45 to - 29 yuan/ton. The procurement of soybeans for October shipments is nearly completed, while that for November to January next year is scarce [4] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 31 were 1421486 metric tons, a 10.2% increase from the previous month [4] Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents contract spreads such as corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, soybeans 1 - 5, soybean meal 1 - 5, etc [6][7] Contract Basis - The report presents contract basis such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, etc [14][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 1, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract dropped 2.73% to 75,560 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,300 yuan/ton to 78,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also dropped by 1,300 yuan/ton to 76,050 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell by 250 yuan/ton to 76,650 yuan/ton. The warrant inventory increased by 1,310 tons to 31,197 tons [3]. - According to the semi - annual report of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. on August 29, the overall progress of its 40,000 - ton/year lithium salt project reached 71%. The adsorption lithium extraction device completed the intermediate handover acceptance on June 3. It is expected that the project will start trial production by the end of September, and the company will achieve a production scale of 80,000 tons/year of lithium salt [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production continued to slow down with a narrowing decline. The weekly output decreased by 108 tons to 19,030 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 70 tons to 12,249 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 150 tons to 2,500 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased by 37 tons to 2,515 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 9 tons to 1,766 tons. In terms of demand, according to the production scheduling data of market consulting agencies, the production scheduling of cathode materials in September increased by 5 - 6% month - on - month. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline slightly on a weekly basis, decreasing by 407 tons to 141,136 tons. The downstream inventory increased by 1,293 tons to 52,800 tons, the intermediate link inventory increased by 1,810 tons to 45,000 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 3,510 tons to 43,336 tons. The downstream and intermediate links showed signs of replenishing inventory, while the upstream continued to destock [3]. - Last week, news - related factors led to a rapid decline in prices, digesting part of the increase caused by the shutdown of Jianxiawo. The market may re - price the expectations regarding mining permits. Currently, considering the potential disturbing factors on the supply side, the relatively firm price of lithium ore, and the booming demand, the downside space may be limited, and the price may show wide - range fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to September 30, when Jiangxi lithium ore projects need to complete report compilation and submission. By then, there may be a conclusion regarding the mining permit issues of other projects [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract decreased from 77,180 yuan/ton on August 29 to 75,560 yuan/ton on September 1, a decrease of 1,620 yuan/ton. The closing price of the continuous contract dropped from 77,000 yuan/ton to 75,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,460 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 4 US dollars/ton to 898 US dollars/ton. The prices of lepidolite (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%), and lithiophilite (Li₂O: 6% - 7%, Li₂O: 7% - 8%) decreased to varying degrees [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) all decreased, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 56,200 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,300 yuan/ton. The price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to - 1,700 yuan/ton. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 288 yuan/ton [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of ternary precursors 523 (polycrystalline/power type), 523 (single - crystal/consumer type), 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type), and 811 (polycrystalline/power type) increased to varying degrees. The prices of ternary materials 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type), 523 (single - crystal/power type), and cobaltous acid lithium decreased, while the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) and 811 (power type) remained unchanged. The prices of lithium iron phosphate (power type), lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage), and lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) decreased, while the prices of lithium manganate (power type) and lithium manganate (capacity type) remained unchanged [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries increased by 0.01 yuan/piece, the price of cobaltous acid lithium cells increased by 0.2 yuan/Ah, and the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries increased by 0.001 yuan/Wh. The prices of other cells remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Includes charts of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF) and lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%) and lithiophilite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) prices, showing price trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Covers charts of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices, presenting price trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [11][13][14]. - **Price Spreads**: Comprises charts of price spreads such as battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and others, showing price spread trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [17][18][19]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Includes charts of ternary precursor, ternary material, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobaltous acid lithium prices, demonstrating price trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [24][26][28]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Covers charts of 523 square ternary cell, square lithium iron phosphate cell, cobaltous acid lithium cell, and square lithium iron phosphate battery prices, showing price trends from January 2024 to August 2025 [30][33]. - **Inventory**: Includes charts of downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and other - link inventory, showing inventory trends from January to August 2025 [37][39]. - **Production Cost**: Features a chart of production costs, including the cash production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate, showing profit trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [41][43].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面明显下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3115 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 偏弱运行 | | | 下跌 45 元/吨，跌幅为 1.42%，持仓增加 20.4 万手。现货价格下跌，成交处于低位，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格下跌 20 元/吨至 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 40 元/吨至 3170 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 8.93 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存增加 5.74%至 490.84 万吨，热卷库存增加 2.75%至 209.96 万吨。 | | | | 进入 9 月份，建材累积还出现加快，对市场情绪形成一定影响。另据克而瑞地产研究统计，今年 8 月百强 | | | | 房企实现销售操盘金额 2070.4 亿元，环比降低 1.9%，同比降低 17.6%，同比降幅相对于 7 月收窄了 6.7 个 | | | | 百分点，单月业绩规模继续保持在历史较低水平，这也是百 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [3] - Rubber: Oscillating [5] - Methanol: Oscillating, with a bias towards strength [5] - Polyolefins: Oscillating [6] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating, with a bias towards weakness [6] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical commodities on September 2, 2025. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand dynamics, and cost - end fluctuations to provide views on price trends for each commodity. For example, due to geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and the Russia - Ukraine situation, the oil market's geopolitical pricing may rise again, and oil prices can be considered from a rebound perspective [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Monday, Brent's new November contract rose 0.67 dollars to 68.15 dollars per barrel, a 0.99% increase. SC2510 closed at 488.9 yuan per barrel, up 5.3 yuan or 1.10%. Geopolitical factors such as the possible suspension of diplomatic efforts and the Red Sea missile incident may lead to a rebound in oil prices [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2510) rose 0.25% to 2832 yuan per ton, while the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2511) fell 0.49% to 3474 yuan per ton. The expected reduction in Western arbitrage cargo inflows in September may boost the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil, but overall demand for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil lacks significant highlights [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt (BU2510) rose 1% to 3540 yuan per ton. In September, the demand for road construction in the north increases, but the rise in supply in North China and Northeast China may limit price increases. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease, and prices may rise further [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4772 yuan per ton, down 0.25%. EG2601 closed at 4427 yuan per ton, down 0.87%. PX supply is high, and downstream TA maintenance volume is increasing. TA prices are expected to be supported and oscillate. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate with a bias towards strength due to supply reduction and demand increase [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) remained unchanged at 15860 yuan per ton, while the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 15 yuan to 12680 yuan per ton. Supply weather is favorable, raw material prices fluctuate slightly, demand is stable domestically and weak overseas, and inventory is slightly decreasing. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: Due to the recovery of profits, MTO devices may resume production. In September, supply growth is limited, demand is expected to pick up, and inventory is expected to peak. Methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area [5]. - **Polyolefins**: In September, supply and demand are both strong, inventory is gradually transferred from society to downstream, and fundamentals have few contradictions. Polyolefin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)**: Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and demand for PVC downstream products is limited. With India's higher anti - dumping duties, exports are expected to decline. PVC prices in September are expected to oscillate with a bias towards weakness [6]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [7]. Market News - Trump is considering suspending diplomatic efforts until more flexibility is shown. Europe is trying to persuade Zelensky to wait for better conditions, which may disrupt the progress made since the Russia - US summit. The EU is formulating a plan to deploy multinational forces to Ukraine [10]. - Despite US pressure, Russia remains India's largest crude oil supplier, accounting for 31.4% of India's crude oil imports in July [10]. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents line charts of the closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows line charts of the basis of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [27][28][29] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides line charts of spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][43][44] - **4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads**: It presents line charts of spreads between different commodities, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][59][60] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows line charts of production profits for some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [67][68][69] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [73][74][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock index futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury bond futures: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market oscillated and rose, with the Wind All - A index closing up 0.81% and a trading volume of 2.78 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices all increased, and the stock index basis was significantly at a discount. The Fed's dovish stance and China's policy adjustments, such as housing and parenting subsidy policies, are expected to drive the A - share market. The liquidity market is expected to continue, with funds concentrating on index components and technology - style stocks, and short - term fluctuations may increase while there is long - term upward momentum [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed with gains across different tenors. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. In August, the bond market was suppressed by the rise of the equity market, but with long - term favorable factors for the bond market, the adjustment is basically in place. Short - term bonds are expected to remain stable, while long - term bonds may experience greater fluctuations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed an upward trend, with the CSI 1000 index rising 0.84%, the CSI 500 index rising 0.94%, the SSE 300 index rising 0.6%, and the SSE 50 index rising 0.16%. The stock index basis was deeply at a discount, and the IM2509 was at a discount of 120 points, indicating strong hedging demand. The Fed's dovish attitude and China's policy adjustments, including housing and parenting subsidy policies, are beneficial to the A - share market. The liquidity market will continue, with funds concentrating on specific stocks, and short - term volatility may increase while long - term upward potential exists [1] Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with gains: the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.30%, 0.17%, 0.08%, and 0.02% respectively. The central bank conducted 1827 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1057 billion yuan. In August, the bond market was affected by the rise of the equity market, but long - term factors are favorable for the bond market. Short - term bonds are expected to be stable, while long - term bonds may fluctuate more [1][2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH decreased by 0.4 points (-0.01%), IF increased by 4.4 points (0.10%), IC increased by 18.0 points (0.26%), and IM increased by 14.0 points (0.19%) [3] Stock Indexes - The SSE 50 index increased by 4.7 points (0.16%), the SSE 300 index increased by 27.0 points (0.60%), the CSI 500 index increased by 66.3 points (0.94%), and the CSI 1000 index increased by 62.5 points (0.84%) [3] Treasury Bond Futures - TS increased by 0.018 points (0.02%), TF increased by 0.08 points (0.08%), T increased by 0.19 points (0.18%), and TL increased by 0.36 points (0.31%) [3] Treasury Bond Yields - The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.92, 1.31, 1.79, and 2.75 respectively [3] 3.3 Market News - As of August 29, the margin trading balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 83.56 billion yuan to 11409.26 billion yuan, and that of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange increased by 86.88 billion yuan to 10971.74 billion yuan. The total margin trading balance of the two markets increased by 170.44 billion yuan to 22381.00 billion yuan [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents the historical trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical trends of their respective basis [6][7][9][10][11] Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the historical trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][17][18] Exchange Rates - The report displays the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between different currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen [21][22][23][25][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of nickel ore is stable. The weekly inventory of stainless steel decreased slightly, but the supply increased, and the inventory pressure may become apparent. With the rising price of raw materials, the cost support for stainless steel has strengthened. In the new energy sector, the demand for ternary materials is gradually increasing, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up may increase. The supply of raw materials is relatively tight, and the price of nickel sulfate may continue to rise. The weekly inventory of primary nickel decreased, and the cumulative consumption in China from January to July increased by nearly 50% year - on - year. Previously, the nickel price basically fluctuated within a range. The weekly nickel price rebounded to the center of the range. With the marginal improvement of nickel iron and the new energy sector, the nickel price may still fluctuate strongly [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Monthly prices: The price of Shanghai nickel remained flat, while LME nickel rose 2.1%. The prices of nickel iron and nickel sulfate both increased. The spot price of stainless steel rose this month, and the spot premium increased by 200 yuan/ton to 395 yuan/ton [6][60]. 3.2 Inventory - For nickel: The LME inventory decreased by 54 tons to 209,544 tons within the week; the Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 108 tons to 21,905 tons; the social inventory decreased by 1,402 tons to 39,470 tons; and the bonded area inventory remained at 4,700 tons. - For stainless steel: The total social inventory of 89 warehouses in the national mainstream stainless - steel market decreased by 0.88 tons to 108.3 tons week - on - week, among which the 300 - series inventory decreased by 0.4 tons to 65.4 tons [4][66]. 3.3 Supply - **Nickel - related supply**: In July 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 29,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.89%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of domestic refined nickel was 229,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.14%. The supply of MHP was tight, the coefficient increased significantly, the cost of nickel sulfate strengthened, the demand increased, and the price rose. The supply of stainless - steel is expected to increase month - on - month [4][21]. - **Stainless - steel supply**: The domestic supply of stainless steel is expected to increase month - on - month, and the overseas supply, represented by Indonesia, is also shown through relevant capacity and output data [73][76]. 3.4 Demand - **Nickel demand in different sectors**: - **Stainless steel**: The theoretical profit decreased due to the rising price of raw materials and the falling price of finished products. - **New energy**: The weekly output of ternary materials increased by 102 tons to 16,667 tons, and the inventory increased by 321 tons to 17,617 tons. The weekly output of power cells increased by 5% to 23.86 GWh, among which lithium - iron phosphate cells increased by 7% to 18.03 GWh, and ternary cells increased by 2% to 6.96 GWh. From August 1 - 24, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 727,000, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. The wholesale volume was 711,000, a year - on - year increase of 11% and a month - on - month increase of 3% [4]. - **Stainless - steel consumption**: It is related to various industries such as real estate, home appliances (air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines), automobiles, ships, and power - generation equipment. For example, the real - estate data shows the current situation of investment, construction, and sales, which affects the demand for stainless steel [83][84]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of primary nickel and nickel sulfate is presented through relevant charts, and the supply - demand balance of stainless steel is also shown through a balance sheet [56][92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and the fundamental driving force of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon is limited. The price centers of both have moved down month-on-month. In the short term, they are expected to fluctuate with the overall black market, and future attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [5][6][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Manganese Silicon 3.1.1 Supply - In August, manganese silicon production continued to increase, with weekly production rising for more than ten consecutive weeks. By the end of August, weekly production was 213,000 tons, a 1% week-on-week increase and a 17% year-on-year increase. The operating rates of major production areas all increased to varying degrees, with the overall operating rate in the north still relatively high, approaching 70% [5]. 3.1.2 Demand - Crude steel production decreased significantly, while hot metal production remained stable. The weekly demand for manganese silicon from sample steel mills was basically flat week-on-week. Steel mills' willingness to stock up was limited. In August, the number of days of available manganese silicon inventory in steel mills was 14.98 days, a low level in the same period in recent years [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The inventory of sample enterprises decreased month-on-month and was basically the same year-on-year. By the end of August, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 149,000 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons in the latest week and a total decrease of 15,000 tons in August [5]. 3.1.4 Cost - The prices of major raw materials remained stable, and the overall production cost increased slightly month-on-month. The port manganese ore inventory was stable at around 4.4 million tons, and the port manganese ore price did not change much. The price of rich manganese slag increased month-on-month, and the spot production cost of manganese silicon increased by 0 - 100 yuan/ton month-on-month [5]. 3.1.5 Summary - Market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and the fundamental driving force of manganese silicon is limited. The price center has moved down month-on-month. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate with the overall black market, and there is an expectation of a certain improvement in downstream demand in September [6]. 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Supply - Silicon iron supply continued to increase. In August, there were 77 silicon iron enterprises in production nationwide, with 261 ore furnaces in operation. The average operating rate in August was 52.74%, a 1.15% increase from July. The estimated production was 479,300 tons, a 18,900 - ton increase from July, a 4.11% month-on-month increase, and a 24,500 - ton increase from the same period last year, a 5.39% year-on-year increase [8]. 3.2.2 Demand - Steel demand did not show a significant increase, and steel mills' willingness to stock up was limited. In July, the production of metal magnesium decreased month-on-month, but the absolute value was still at a high level in the same period in recent years [8][82]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The inventory of sample silicon iron enterprises decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was gradually weakening. By the end of August, the inventory of 60 sample enterprises was 62,910 tons, a decrease of 2,270 tons from mid - August [8][94]. 3.2.4 Cost - The spot production cost increased this month, but the support for prices was limited. The price of semi - coke small materials increased significantly, with a month - on - month increase of about 10% to 650 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2.5 Summary - The overall fundamental driving force is limited, market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and the center of the ferrosilicon futures price has moved down. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate with the overall black market, and future attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and electricity price performance [9]. 3.3 Price and Related Indicators 3.3.1 Futures Price - In August, the price centers of both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures contracts moved down month - on - month. The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract on August 28 was 5,842 yuan/ton, a 3.09% month - on - month decrease; the closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract was 5,624 yuan/ton, a 3.70% month - on - month decrease [10][12]. 3.3.2 Spot Price - Spot prices in various regions also decreased to varying degrees, with the average decline of ferrosilicon spot prices greater than that of ferromanganese [13]. 3.3.3 Basis - The basis of ferrosilicon fluctuated and strengthened [18]. 3.3.4 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of ferromanganese decreased by 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, while that of ferrosilicon increased by 6 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased by 30 yuan/ton month - on - month [24][25]. 3.3.5 Production Cost - The production cost of ferrosilicon increased significantly this month, greater than the average increase in the cost of ferromanganese [27]. 3.3.6 Production Profit - The spot production costs of both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon decreased month - on - month, and the production profits also decreased [29].