Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report [2] Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market is expected to enter a volatile trend after a continuous upward movement followed by a decline, with trading volume shrinking and market sentiment cooling. For the bond market, the short - term capital is relatively loose, and the long - end of the bond futures is strengthening, but there are still some resistance levels. The precious metals market is supported by macro - geopolitical events and shows a relatively strong trend. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the prices are oscillating. Other commodity markets also have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and market factors [2] Group 3: Summaries by Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares have different trends such as a decline after a rally and a weak rebound. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, take profits on some profitable contracts, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] - **Bond Futures**: The capital is stable and loose, and the long - end of bond futures is strengthening. It is advisable to temporarily watch on the unilateral strategy and not chase the high. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive spreads of TS, T, and TF contracts and the strategy of widening the basis [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought at dips above the 20 - day moving average and sell out - of - the - money call options to lock in risks. Silver is in a high - level oscillation, and it is advisable to participate cautiously. Platinum can be bought at dips when it touches the 20 - day moving average, and an option straddle strategy can be used within a certain price range [2] Industrial Products - **Steel and Iron**: Steel has weak supply and demand, with steel prices oscillating. Iron ore supply is in the off - season and ports are accumulating inventory. For coking coal and coke, the market has over - anticipated, and they are expected to be in a downward - biased oscillation. For silicon - related products, the supply - demand situation is improving, and they are in a wide - range oscillation [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper prices are oscillating and inventories are accumulating. Aluminum products are affected by macro factors, and there are different trading strategies for different varieties. Zinc prices are oscillating and falling back, and tin is in a wide - range oscillation. Nickel is in an oscillating adjustment, and stainless steel is in a relatively strong oscillation [2] - **New Energy**: Industrial silicon futures are oscillating, polycrystalline silicon is in a weak - biased oscillation, and lithium carbonate is in a strong - biased operation [2] Energy and Chemical Products - Most products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals. For example, PX is in a short - term high - level oscillation, PTA is oscillating and following raw materials, and some products such as short - fiber and bottle - chip are also affected by supply - demand and raw material factors. Some products like ethylene glycol and pure benzene have specific trading strategies based on their inventory and supply - demand situations [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, soybean meal has strong bottom support, palm oil may try to break through the annual resistance level, and products like sugar are in a weak - biased oscillation, while cotton needs to pay attention to the support level [2]

体报告内容德想必获语于部门发射竞再找后认为可以的已公开资料，但"发挥的过应盛信息的高的危险无奈胜还不用任何保证。本报告诉郑伟员《责经不同说点。见解及分行方法，并不代表厂发销运度利润利和放立场，在印情况下，报告中国政策参考，报告中国政策参考，报律中国政策参考，报律中国政策参考，报律中国政策参考，报律中国政策部 或所难这的感见乎不何动用放品种子类的出价面的价，投资者提出放器，风险目色，本质告高在对送给厂就销投销竞客户及其他专业人士，极吸旧"发期货币库，来经广发脱贫策面倒贸，任何人不得的不报告进行任问例式放发示。复制。成丹用、节度，和无限、消费、消费、消费、补助、微器融处处了" 发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 硅铁 (SF603) | 72 | 64.50% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 1.B0% | રકરે | 5628 | 2 83% | 硅罐(SM603) | 164 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 5950 | 5786 | 57.10% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

| 贵金属期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月22日 | | | | 叶得己 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 1月21日 | 1月20日 | 张跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2604合约 | 1092.30 | 1060.16 | 32.14 | 3.03% | 元/兄 | | AG2604合约 | 23131 | 23062 | ୧୦ | 0.30% | | | | 628.50 | 619.35 | 9.15 | 1.48% | 元/千克 | | PT2606合约 | | | | | 元/完 | | PD2606合约 | 485.80 | 490.00 | -4.20 | -0.86% | | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 1月21日 | 1月20日 | 涨跌 | 旅跌幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 4836.20 | 4769.10 | 67.10 | 1.4 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月22日 | | 壬浚辉 | Z0019938 | | 更細 | | | | | 1月21日 | 1月20日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 8550 现价 江苏均价 | 8560 | -10 | -0.12% | | 期价 Y2605 8044 | 8032 | 12 | 0.15% | | 星差 Y2605 506 | 528 | -22 | -4.17% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 05 + 510 | 05 + 520 | -10 | - | | 仓单 26985 | 26985 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | 1月21日 | 1月20日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8880 | 8800 | 80 | 0.91% | | 期价 P2605 8832 | 8748 | 84 | 0.96% | | 墓差 P2605 48 | 52 | -4 | -7.69% | | 现货墓差报价 广东5月 05+ ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the spot market, some specifications in Jiangsu are in short supply and prices have risen due to low inventory. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected decrease in later shipments. However, demand remains weak and the upside is limited. Recently, the log futures price has declined with increasing positions, and the current price has fallen below the cost line. In the short term, the price is expected to have some support, and trading within the range of 750 - 800 yuan can be considered. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On January 21, the prices of log futures contracts 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 increased by 0.65%, 1.06%, 0.84%, and 0.70% respectively compared to January 20. The main contract basis decreased by 8 yuan. The spot prices of various types of logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged. The outer - market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter also remained unchanged. [1] - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate and import theoretical cost remained basically unchanged on January 22 compared to January 21. [1] Supply - In December, the port freight volume increased by 7.82% compared to November, and the number of ships in the port increased by 12.24%. From January 19 - 25, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports remained the same as last week, and the arrival volume decreased by 5% week - on - week. [1][2] Inventory - As of January 16, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2570000 cubic meters, a decrease of 120000 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 2.04% and that in Jiangsu decreased by 15.18%. [1][2] Demand - As of January 16, the daily average log出库 volume was 61600 cubic meters, an increase of 4100 cubic meters from the previous week. The daily average log出库 volume in Shandong increased by 16%, while that in Jiangsu decreased by 3%. [2]

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2603 | 总持仓明显下降 | 海通空头减仓超 2000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2603 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 中信空头加仓超千手 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2603 | 总持仓明显下降 | 中信多空头各减仓 5000 手以上 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2603 | 总持仓明显下降 | 国君空头减仓超 2000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -6,123.0 1,743.0 -4,994.0 -6,631.0 -6,447.0 4,576.0 -8,110.0 -6,771.0 -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 IF IH IC IM 主力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - Methanol futures fluctuated narrowly, with a firm basis and a somewhat subdued overall negotiation. The inland supply remained high, traditional demand was weak, and there was short - term pressure. However, under the expectations of spring maintenance and new production capacity, the long - term pressure might ease. The port inventory decreased slightly, but the MTO demand was weak, suppressing the price rebound. The risk premium from the reduction in imported methanol arrivals was gradually fading, and the geopolitical factors still had an impact [1]. Polyolefins (L2605, PP2605) - For PE, the HD - LL spread narrowed, the marginal supply of the standard product (LLDPE) was expected to increase, and demand entered the seasonal off - season with weakening downstream开工率. For PP, the supply - demand situation was weak on both sides, but the balance improved compared to the previous period. The weighted profit was repaired, and the far - month futures offered PDH hedging profits [2]. Natural Rubber - The supply in northern Thailand and northern Vietnam was decreasing, and overseas raw material prices stopped falling and rose, strengthening cost support. The demand of some semi - steel tire enterprises with a large proportion of European exports was sufficient, but the overall inventory of enterprises increased, and domestic sales were slow. The inventory in China continued to accumulate. The rubber price was expected to oscillate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton [3]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - The supply - demand of pure benzene improved marginally, but the absolute level of port inventory was still high, and its own driving force was limited. Styrene was strong due to export - driven inventory reduction and unexpected device shutdowns, which drove up the price of pure benzene. However, the spread between styrene and pure benzene was expected to have limited room for further expansion. For styrene, although the short - term supply - demand was tight, there was an inventory accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space was limited [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the main contract SA605 fell for five consecutive trading days. The supply was at a high level, demand did not improve significantly, and the factory inventory was at a historically high level. The futures price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. For glass, the main contract FG605 fell. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory was still high. The futures price was expected to continue the weakening trend in the short term [5]. Urea - Urea futures oscillated and closed up, and the spot price was generally stable. The supply was sufficient in the short term, and demand from both agriculture and industry increased. The inventory continued to decline, and the price was expected to oscillate widely in the short term [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the futures fell weakly, and the spot market price continued to decline. The supply - demand imbalance remained, with high inventory and weak demand, and the price was expected to continue to decline under pressure. For PVC, the futures opened low and moved lower, the supply was at a high level, and demand weakened before the festival. The price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, but the cost support limited the downward space [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply was at a high level, and demand was weak. The overall supply - demand of PX and PTA was expected to weaken. For PTA, the supply - demand was expected to weaken in January, and it would follow raw material fluctuations. For MEG, there was a large - scale inventory accumulation expectation, and the price was under pressure. For short - fiber, the supply - demand was weak, and it would follow raw material fluctuations. For polyester bottle - chips, the supply decreased, and it would follow cost - end fluctuations [8]. Crude Oil - International oil prices rebounded. Geopolitical risks eased to some extent, but the instability remained. The temporary shutdown of two major oil fields in Kazakhstan and the increase in fuel demand due to the Arctic cold wave supported oil prices in the short term. However, the supply - demand expectation of crude oil was still weak, and the upward space of oil prices was limited. Brent crude oil was expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 dollars/barrel [9]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose slightly. The refinery inventory ratio and port inventory decreased. The upstream refinery开工率 increased slightly, while the downstream PDH开工率 decreased. The price trend was affected by supply - demand and external market factors [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2605 closed at 2209 yuan/ton, up 0.14%; MA2609 closed at 2232 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The MA59 spread was - 23 yuan/ton, down 21.05%. The port - inland regional spreads increased [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.78% to 43.842 million tons, port inventory increased by 1.55% to 145.7 million tons, and social inventory increased by 0.51% to 189.6 million tons [1]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 decreased by 0.23% to 77.91%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO装置开工率 decreased by 11.22% to 70.03% [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2605 closed at 6666 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; PP2605 closed at 6485 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The L59 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 34 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 4.37% to 33.50 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased by 7.85% to 43.10 million tons [2]. - **开工率**: The PE装置开工率 decreased by 2.48% to 81.59%, and the PP装置开工率 increased by 0.20% to 75.62% [2]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of whole - milk rubber was 15400 yuan/ton, up 0.65%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 730 yuan/ton, down 8.96% [3]. - **Production and 开工率**: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons, and the开工率 of automobile tires (semi - steel) increased by 7.55% to 73.44% [3]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased by 2.94% to 584897 tons [3]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5750 yuan/ton, up 2.7%. The price of styrene East China spot was 7470 yuan/ton, up 1.4% [4]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 8.3% to 29.70 million tons, and styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 7.1% to 10.06 million tons [4]. - **开工率**: The Asian pure benzene开工率 decreased by 0.9% to 77.0%, and the domestic styrene开工率 increased by 4.7% to 85.0% [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of glass 2605 was 1039 yuan/ton, down 1.61%; the price of soda ash 2605 was 1163 yuan/ton, down 1.19% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash开工率 increased by 5.93% to 84.70%, and the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.92% to 15.01 million tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory decreased by 5.69% to 5551.80 million cases, and the soda ash factory inventory increased by 4.25% to 157.25 million tons [5]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of urea futures was - 29 yuan/ton, down 26.09% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production was 19.98 million tons, up 0.17%. The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 4.07% to 94.60 million tons [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda was 1946.9 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC was 4500 yuan/ton, down 1.3% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry开工率 increased by 0.3% to 89.1%, and the PVC total开工率 increased by 0.3% to 79.1% [7]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory decreased by 3.2% to 22.6 tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 5.3% to 31.1 million tons [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of PTA East China spot was 5015 yuan/ton, up 1.4%. The price of MEG East China spot was 3601 yuan/ton, down 0.9% [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX开工率 decreased by 1.7% to 89.4%, and the PTA开工率 decreased by 1.3% to 76.9% [8]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory decreased by 0.9% to 79.5 million tons [8]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude oil was 65.24 dollars/barrel, up 0.49%. The Brent M1 - M3 spread was 1.11 dollars/barrel, down 4.31% [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The temporary shutdown of two major oil fields in Kazakhstan and the increase in fuel demand due to the Arctic cold wave affected the supply - demand situation [9]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the main PG2603 contract was 4069 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The PG03 - 04 spread was - 277 yuan/ton, down 3.75% [11]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery inventory ratio decreased by 2.77% to 23.2%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 4.89% to 203 million tons [11]. - **开工率**: The upstream main - refinery开工率 increased by 0.34% to 77.24%, and the downstream PDH开工率 decreased by 3.36% to 73.1% [11].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月22日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | -0.27 | 10.01 | 90.10% | 63.30% | 6.42 | 88.50% | H期现价来 | 1.67 | 95.00% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 29.89 | 30.89 | 99.50% | 99.30% | IM期现价差 | 48.25 | 17.09 | 95.00% | 99.50% | 次月-当月 | -1.40 | 0.60 | 89.7096 | 57.10% | | | 李月-当月 | 44.60% | -36.40 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Tin - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment, so cautious participation is advised. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply side is gradually recovering, but considering the low elasticity of the supply side and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price fluctuates, rising after a decline. The production in January and February is expected to decrease. The demand side is likely to decline slightly in January. The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the changes in production on the demand side [3]. Polysilicon - The average spot price of polysilicon and the price of silicon wafers have declined. The demand expectation has improved, and component production may increase slightly, which is conducive to inventory digestion. However, polysilicon and silicon wafer prices are under pressure due to high inventory. The monthly average production in the first quarter is expected to drop to about 80,000 tons. The price may be supported at the 48,000 yuan/ton level, and even at 45,000 yuan/ton considering full - cost support [4]. Copper - Market speculative sentiment has eased, and copper prices fluctuated. Geopolitical factors affect market expectations of copper tariffs. The global visible inventory has reached a high level in recent years, and the return of COMEX copper inventory may ease the supply pressure in non - US regions. In the short term, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing, and in the long term, the price bottom center is expected to gradually rise. Attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes, with support at 97500 - 98500 [5]. Zinc - Market speculative sentiment has eased, and zinc prices adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports prices, and the import window for zinc ore has opened. The supply pressure of refined zinc has been relieved. High zinc prices have suppressed demand, and the downstream operating rate has weakened. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support around 23,800. Attention should be paid to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [9]. Aluminum - The alumina market showed a weak and volatile trend, with an oversupply situation. Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is in a high - level volatile pattern. Although macro and policy expectations are positive, the fundamentals are under pressure, with supply increasing and demand being suppressed. Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton [12]. Nickel - The nickel futures market was volatile. Macro factors and the situation of Indonesian nickel ore quotas affect the market. The overall spot transaction of refined nickel is average. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron have increased. The demand for stainless steel in the off - season is weak, and the market cost is relatively limited. The inventory pressure has increased. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 138000 - 148000 [13]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices fluctuated at a high level, with cost being the main driving factor. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The social inventory has decreased slightly. The ADC12 price is expected to continue the high - level volatile pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22000 - 23500 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices showed a narrow - range fluctuation and then a late - session rally. Macro factors and raw material supply expectations affect the market. The raw material prices are expected to rise, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The social inventory is decreasing, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. Stainless steel prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 14200 - 15000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures prices rose sharply. News about lithium concentrate auctions and mine supply fluctuations affected the market sentiment. The production is slightly increasing, and the supply is expected to decline during the pre - holiday maintenance period. The downstream demand shows certain resilience. Social inventory decreased last week. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, but chasing the rise requires attention to volatility and liquidity risks [20]. Summary by Directory Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.22% to 395,750 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased 14.82% to - 92.00 dollars/ton. The import loss was - 7117.93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.99% [2]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In December, tin ore imports increased 16.81% to 17,637 tons, SMM refined tin production decreased 0.06% to 15,950 tons, and refined tin exports increased 41.84% to 2763 tons [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased 37.69% to 9549.0 tons, and social inventory increased 36.07% to 10,175.0 tons [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis of Main Contracts**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9250 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased 6.93% [3]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and Xinjiang's production increased 6.46% to 25.29 million tons. The national operating rate decreased 0.35% to 64.59% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory increased 2.91% to 14.83 million tons, and social inventory increased 0.54% to 55.50 million tons [3]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type granular silicon decreased 7.34% to 50,500 yuan/ton, and the N - type material basis increased 5.49% [4]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: Polysilicon production increased 0.79% to 11.55 million tons, and silicon wafer production decreased 19.26% to 43.90 million tons [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: Silicon wafer inventory decreased 5.53% to 24.78 million tons, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased 1.54% to 4620.00 [4]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased 0.66% to 100,060 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 increased to 101.84 dollars/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased 6.80% to 117.81 million tons, and imports decreased 4.02% to 26.02 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased 7.81% to 69.04 million tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased 12.27% to 32.94 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased 18.26% to 21.35 million tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased 0.53% to 24,210 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased to - 1851 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, refined zinc production decreased 7.24% to 55.21 million tons, and imports decreased 51.94% to 0.88 million tons [9]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory increased 3.13% to 12.20 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.40% to 11.2 million tons [9]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum increased 0.13% to 23,710 yuan/ton, and the alumina (Shandong) average price decreased 0.19% to 2560 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, alumina production decreased 1.08% to 743.94 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.97% to 363.66 million tons [12]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased 2.60% to 74.90 million tons, and LME inventory increased 5.01% to 50.7 million tons [12]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased 0.99% to 144,900 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 decreased 2.15% to - 200 dollars/ton [13]. - **Cost and New - Energy Material Prices**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel increased 1.09% to 112,237 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased 0.22% to 33,375 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased 26.10% to 31,400 tons, and SHFE inventory increased 3.28% to 48,180 tons [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 23,850 yuan/ton, and the Foshan crushed primary aluminum scrap price difference increased 0.80% to 2509 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 6.16% to 64.00 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased 0.46% to 30.41 million tons [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 1.41% to 4.89 million tons [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased 1.40% to 14,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) increased 0.89% to 51 dollars/wet ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 0.92% to 176.32 million tons, and stainless steel imports increased 29.32% to 14.50 million tons [16]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased 1.47% to 45.07 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased 3.93% to 158,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF increased 2.52% to 2035 dollars/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased 4.04% to 99,200 tons, and demand decreased 2.50% to 130,118 tons [20]. - **Inventory Changes**: In December, lithium carbonate total inventory decreased 12.23% to 56,664 tons, and downstream inventory decreased 7.21% to 38,998 tons [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel market shows weak supply and demand. The seasonal decline in rebar demand is significant, while the decline in hot - rolled coil demand is relatively small. The recent cost reduction may lead to a downward shift in the steel price center. The reference range for the May rebar contract is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan. Consider closing long positions on the steel - to - ore ratio when it rises, and continue to hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore is facing a situation of weak supply and demand. The support factors for iron ore are reversing, with iron - making resumption falling short of expectations, potential changes in negotiation deadlocks, and the gradual fulfillment of steel mill restocking. The price is under overall pressure, and it is advisable to short at around 800 yuan [4]. Coke Industry - The coke market is currently stable. After the fourth - round price cut, some coke enterprises are resisting price cuts and limiting production to maintain prices. The mainstream coke enterprises are initiating a price increase, which is expected to be realized. The market is expected to be looser after the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan [7]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, the spot market is strong due to restocking demand, but the futures market has over - anticipated the price increase. After the Spring Festival, the market supply and demand are expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1000 - 1200 yuan [7]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is limited, lacking upward drivers at the industrial level. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly within the range of 5300 - 5800 yuan, with short - term attention to macro and policy factors [8]. Ferromanganese Industry - Ferromanganese is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5800 - 6000 yuan, with short - term attention to macro and policy factors [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. The rebar spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, and the rebar 05 contract price decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 3117 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil spot price in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 3286 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2930 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, and the profit of rebar in North China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.6 tons to 819.2 tons, an increase of 0.1%. Rebar production decreased by 0.7 tons to 190.3 tons, a decrease of 0.4%, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.9 tons to 308.4 tons, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.9 tons to 1247.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The rebar inventory remained unchanged at 438.1 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.8 tons to 362.3 tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.2 to 7.6, a decrease of 2.2%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 29.3 tons to 826.1 tons, an increase of 3.7%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 15.4 tons to 190.3 tons, an increase of 8.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 5.8 tons to 314.2 tons, an increase of 1.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties decreased, with the PB powder warehouse - receipt cost decreasing by 5.5 yuan/ton to 850.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6%. The 05 - contract basis of some varieties changed slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 17.5, a decrease of 2.8% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 260.7 tons to 2659.7 tons, a decrease of 8.9%. The global shipment volume decreased by 251.0 tons to 2929.9 tons, a decrease of 7.9%. The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons to 11964.7 tons, an increase of 8.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The 45 - port daily average ore removal volume decreased by 3.4 tons to 661.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 162.3 tons to 6072.0 tons, a decrease of 2.6%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 169.1 tons [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 279.8 tons to 16555.10 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 272.6 tons to 9262.2 tons, an increase of 3.0%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 days to 21.0 days, an increase of 10.5% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 05 contract price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1684 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.6%. The coking profit decreased by 20 yuan/ton [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 1193 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.2%. The coking coal 05 contract price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1129 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The sample coal mine profit increased by 18 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.74% [7]. Supply - The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons to 63.5 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average coke output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 tons to 46.7 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 4.3 tons to 920.2 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.3 tons to 81.8 tons, a decrease of 4.9%, while the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.6 tons to 650.3 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The coking coal inventory of various sectors increased to varying degrees [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of ferrosilicon in most regions remained unchanged, with the 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia at 5250 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferromanganese in some regions also remained unchanged, with the FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia at 5680 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon主力合约收盘价 increased by 4.0 yuan/ton to 5556.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.14%, and the ferromanganese主力合约收盘价 increased by 26.0 yuan/ton to 5786.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5% [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly, and the production profit increased slightly. The manganese ore prices of some varieties decreased slightly [8]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprise's weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 29.2%, a decrease of 1.4%. The ferromanganese weekly output remained unchanged at 19.1 tons, and the start - up rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 36.1%, a decrease of 2.0% [8]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Steel Union) decreased slightly, and the ferromanganese demand remained unchanged. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6% [8]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.5 tons to 6.4 tons, a decrease of 7.5%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased by 1.0 tons to 37.3 tons, a decrease of 2.5% [8].