Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products. Geopolitical conflicts, especially the US - Iran conflict, have significant impacts on the markets, causing price fluctuations in energy, metals, and agricultural products. The supply - demand relationship, cost factors, and inventory levels also play crucial roles in determining the price trends of different commodities [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Selections - **Nickel**: Macro changes and raw material contradictions support prices, but high inventory remains a constraint. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 136,000 - 145,000 [2][37] - **PX**: Short - term prices are dominated by oil prices with increased volatility. It is recommended to wait and see and go long at low prices after the market stabilizes [3][101] - **Silicon Iron**: The market sentiment is volatile, with both supply and demand increasing. The price may oscillate widely in the range of 5,700 - 6,200 [4][68] - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA March supply - demand report has limited impact. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation with a strengthening basis [5][74] Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a mixed trend on Wednesday. The four major stock index futures contracts rose and fell differently. It is recommended to construct a bullish spread of far - month put options with a low position, with a neutral - oscillatory view [6][7][9] Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to oscillate for a long time in the range of 5,000 - 5,250 dollars. Silver prices may still have downward pressure, and platinum and palladium prices have certain support [10][13][14] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The spot copper supply is tight, and the spot premium is strengthening. In the short term, the price oscillates around 100,000 yuan/ton, and in the long term, the price center is expected to rise [15][18] Alumina - The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the spot price is rising. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to go short at high prices [19][20] Aluminum - Due to geopolitical conflicts, the price oscillates at a high level. In the short term, the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [22][24] Aluminum Alloy - The social inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The price oscillates strongly in the range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton [24][26] Zinc - The price oscillates narrowly. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and it is recommended to go long at low prices in the long term [27][30] Tin - The price is greatly affected by short - term market sentiment. In the long term, it is still optimistic, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [31][35] Nickel - The situation is similar to that in the daily selection, with high inventory constraining the upward movement, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [36][38] Stainless Steel - The price oscillates due to geopolitical disturbances. The cost provides support, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the range of 14,000 - 14,500 [38][40] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price falls. The fundamentals are resilient but lack strong driving forces. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 150,000 - 165,000 [41][44] Polysilicon - The spot market is weak, and the futures price oscillates weakly. The long - term photovoltaic demand may be favorable, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][47] Industrial Silicon - The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price oscillates. The supply and demand are expected to be strong in March, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cost and market situation [48][50] Ferrous Metals Steel - The steel price center rises, and it is expected to oscillate in a range. It is necessary to pay attention to the marginal changes in steel exports and the price pressure levels [50][53] Iron Ore - The price may oscillate strongly in the range of 750 - 820 due to geopolitical impacts and supply - demand changes [55][56] Coking Coal - The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price rebounds. It is recommended to go long at low prices for the 2605 contract and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke [57][61] Coke - The futures price rebounds. The supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term. It is recommended to go long at low prices for the 2605 contract and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke [62][66] Silicon Iron - Similar to the daily selection, the price may oscillate widely in the range of 5,700 - 6,200 [67][68] Manganese Silicon - The price may oscillate widely in the range of 5,800 - 6,400 due to cost - pushing and supply - demand changes [69][71] Agricultural Products Meal - The USDA March report has limited impact, and the market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation with a strengthening basis [72][74] Live Pigs - The slaughter pressure is high, and the price is expected to continue to bottom out, with the possibility of further decline in the near - month [75][76] Corn - The price oscillates at a high level, with support and pressure coexisting. It is necessary to pay attention to the specific supply and policy release [77][79] Sugar - The international and domestic sugar markets have different trends. The domestic market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [80] Cotton - The cotton price shows a strong trend. The domestic and international markets have different situations, and it is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and planting policies [82] Eggs - The supply is sufficient, and the demand is moderate. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [86][87] Oils and Fats - Palm oil is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the Middle East situation and supply rumors, and rapeseed oil oscillates in a range [88][91] Red Dates - The spot market improves, and the futures price oscillates strongly. It is recommended to operate in a short - term band with strict risk control [92][93] Apples - The spot trading is weak, and the futures price oscillates and falls. It is necessary to pay attention to the Tomb - Sweeping Festival replenishment, ordinary fruit de - stocking, and weather changes [94][96] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The short - term price decline space is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz [97][98] PX - Short - term prices are dominated by oil prices with increased volatility. It is recommended to wait and see and go long at low prices after the market stabilizes [100][101] PTA - The supply - demand drive is limited, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to oil prices [102][103] Short - fiber - The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream cost transmission [104][105] Bottle Chips - The supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and pay attention to the processing fee pressure [106][107] Ethylene Glycol - The supply - demand is expected to improve in March, and the price may oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [108][109] Pure Benzene - The short - term price follows the oil price. It is recommended to wait and see and shrink the spread between pure benzene and styrene at high prices [110] Styrene - The short - term price follows the oil price. It is recommended to operate similarly to pure benzene and pay attention to the downstream recovery and the Strait of Hormuz passage [111][112] LLDPE - The price is expected to be strong in the short term due to supply contraction and demand recovery expectations. It is necessary to track the cost and demand [114] PP - The supply - demand balance improves, and the price is strong. It is recommended to gradually stop profiting from the 5 - 9 positive spread [115] Methanol - The price oscillates widely due to geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to gradually stop profiting from long positions [115] Caustic Soda - The price rises due to geopolitical disturbances. The supply - demand is weak, and it is necessary to be vigilant against price drops after the situation eases [116][117] PVC - The price fluctuates emotionally due to cost concerns. It may be passively pushed up in the short term [118][119] Urea - The cost drives the price, and the fundamentals change little. The price is strong in the short term but may decline later. It is recommended to follow the crude oil series with a long - at - low strategy [120][121] Soda Ash - The supply and inventory are high, and the demand is average. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [122][125] Glass - The cost provides support, and the demand improves. It is necessary to pay attention to de - stocking. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [122][126] Natural Rubber - The price oscillates widely due to the impact of oil prices. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,500 - 17,500, and it is recommended to wait and see [126][129] Synthetic Rubber - The price of BR rebounds due to expected raw material shortages. It is recommended to lightly go long on the spread between RU2605 and BR2605 at low prices [129][132] Container Shipping to Europe - The price is pushed up by the fuel surcharge. It is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 1,700 - 2,100. It is recommended to pay attention to the 6 - 10 positive spread entry opportunity [133][134]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Group 2: Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the decline in crude oil futures and the neutral - bearish MPOB report, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures retraced from high levels. However, the unexpected increase in the first 10 - day export data limited the short - term decline. Domestically, it is expected to weaken further in the short term and may find support at the lower gap. In the long term, there is a risk of renewed weakness after repeated consolidation [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The prediction of the end of the Middle - East war by the US President and the proposed solution by Russia have alleviated concerns about long - term oil supply disruptions. CBOT soybean oil had a sharp rise before and now has a demand for a pull - back. Domestically, the supply is still sufficient, and if the futures price drops significantly, the basis quote may rise slightly [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Affected by inflation, economic slowdown concerns, and the expected easing of the Middle - East situation, the crude oil price dropped, dragging down the rapeseed oil market. It followed the domestic vegetable oil sector to correct after a stagnant rise. Future focus should be on the evolution of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The basis quote of crude rapeseed oil is high due to tight supply, and the spot price fluctuates with the market [1]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures rose due to a weak dollar. The USDA report was slightly bearish, but its impact on cotton was limited. US cotton inspection progress is slow, and drought in the main producing areas is expected to continue in the second quarter. Domestically, after the previous rise of Zhengzhou cotton, the import profit is currently small, but the strong demand from downstream spinning mills provides support. The total cotton production in the new year is expected to decline, and future attention should be paid to planting subsidies and sowing [3]. - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar futures declined due to the drop in oil prices. Czarnikow predicted a global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season, with a downward adjustment in production, mainly due to the reduction in India's output forecast. The market is gradually moving from surplus to shortage, and the short - term sugar price is expected to remain firm. Domestically, the domestic groups are strongly willing to support prices, and the market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [5]. - **Red Dates**: The 25/26 production season has sufficient supply, and it is currently the off - season for consumption. The spot price has weakened, and the trading is light. The futures price is under pressure. The arrival of trucks in the markets is small, the consumption market is weak, and the inventory has not been effectively digested. Future focus should be on the inventory reduction rhythm and weather changes [6]. - **Apples**: With the cooling of market sentiment, the futures price has fallen from high levels. The spot market shows a "west - strong, east - weak" pattern. The inventory in the main producing areas has decreased, and the low inventory supports the futures price. Attention should be paid to the Tomb - Sweeping Festival replenishment, ordinary fruit inventory reduction, and weather changes [12]. - **Corn**: In the northeast, the remaining grain is gradually released, but the channel inventory is relatively low, and the price is stable. In the north - central region, the trading is active, and the price fluctuates. As the temperature rises, the grain sales may increase, putting pressure on the price. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises are more willing to replenish inventory, while feed enterprises are more cautious. Wheat substitution is emerging. Overall, the corn demand is still supported, but the expected increase in supply and substitution limit the upward space, and the price will maintain a high - level oscillation [14]. - **Meal Products**: The March supply - demand report has limited impact on the market. US soybeans are trending upward, but it still needs fundamental changes to maintain strength. Domestically, the spot market for meal products is in a loose pattern. Although the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal has been declining, it is still at a relatively high level. The basis has declined. The market should pay attention to the phased arrival rhythm, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [17]. - **Pigs**: In March, the market supply pressure is large, with a large number of large pigs being slaughtered, and the slaughter weight is increasing. In the off - season of demand, the downstream procurement recovers slowly, suppressing the spot price. The market is currently focusing on second - round fattening and frozen product warehousing. The upward pressure is significant, and the overall motivation for second - round fattening is limited. It is expected that the futures and spot prices will continue to bottom - out [18]. - **Eggs**: On the supply side, the number of old hens available for culling is limited, and the culling intention is general. The number of newly - laying hens is also limited, and the inventory of laying hens remains stable at a high level. After the post - festival replenishment, the inventory in each link has decreased. On the demand side, the rising raw material prices have increased the breeding cost, and the farmers' willingness to support prices has increased. The low egg price has attracted traders to stock up, but the terminal demand is still weak. In the short term, the egg price will maintain a low - level oscillation [21]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Price Changes**: On March 10, the spot price in Guangdong was 9360 yuan/ton, down 398 yuan or 4.08% from the previous day; the futures price of P2605 was 9462 yuan/ton, down 258 yuan or 2.65%. The basis was - 102 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or 368.42%. The import cost in Guangzhou Port in May was 9969.5 yuan/ton, down 338.5 yuan or 3.28%, and the import profit was - 507 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan or 13.69% [1]. Soybean Oil - **Price Changes**: On March 10, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8750 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan or 3.85% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8444 yuan/ton, down 228 yuan or 2.63%. The basis was 306 yuan/ton, down 122 yuan or 28.50% [1]. Rapeseed Oil - **Price Changes**: On March 10, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10180 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan or 2.30% from the previous day; the futures price of OI2605 was 9713 yuan/ton, down 241 yuan or 2.42%. The basis was 467 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.21% [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On March 11, the price of cotton 2605 was 15320 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day; the price of cotton 2609 was 15380 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 60 yuan/ton, down 20.00%. The main contract's open interest was 721679 lots, down 3.72%. The number of warehouse receipts was 11950, up 2.60%, and the effective forecast was 790, down 28.12% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 16556 yuan/ton, up 0.55%; the CC Index of 3128B was 16733 yuan/ton, up 0.61%; the FC Index M 1% was 12546 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The Asian inventory was 547.70 tons, down 5.4%; the industrial inventory was 89.40 tons, up 3.8%; the import volume was 17.79 tons, up 49.5%; the bonded area inventory was 47.10 tons, up 9.8%. The yarn inventory days were 21.45 days, down 1.2%; the grey cloth inventory days were 33.24 days, up 0.3%. The spinning enterprise's C32s immediate processing profit was - 2406.30 yuan/ton, down 3.0%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 1661.00 billion yuan, up 7.7%. The year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles was 0.60%, down 82.9%. The export volume of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 113.83 billion US dollars, down 9.5%; the export volume of clothing and clothing accessories was 110.61 billion US dollars, down 17.5% [3]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On March 11, the price of sugar 2605 was 5409 yuan/ton, down 0.50%; the price of sugar 2609 was 5431 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The ICE raw sugar price was 14.62 cents/pound, up 3.76%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, down 69.23%. The main contract's open interest was 409684 lots, down 6.47%. The number of warehouse receipts was 15930, up 6.57%, and the effective forecast was 1120, down 50.53% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price was 5480 yuan/ton, down 0.90%; the Kunming spot price was 5325 yuan/ton, down 0.93%. The Nanning basis was 71 yuan/ton, down 24.47%; the Kunming basis was - 84 yuan/ton, down 37.70%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) was 4164 yuan/ton, up 2.69%; the import price of Brazilian sugar (out of quota) was 5279 yuan/ton, up 2.78% [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 689.00 tons, down 8.05%; the cumulative national sugar sales was 270.00 tons, down 27.71%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 402.90 tons, down 16.36%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 39.10%, down 21.56%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 38.49%, down 22.13%. The national industrial inventory was 419.00 tons, up 11.50%; the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 247.84 tons, up 1.74%; the industrial inventory in Yunnan was 45.21 tons, up 17.46%. The sugar import volume was 58.00 tons, up 48.72% [5]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On March 11, the price of red dates 2605 was 8985 yuan/ton, down 0.83%; the price of red dates 2607 was 9140 yuan/ton, down 0.98%; the price of red dates 2609 was 9355 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. The 5 - 7 spread was - 155 yuan/ton, up 8.82%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 370 yuan/ton, up 2.63%. The open interest was 178293 lots, down 2.71%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4031, unchanged; the effective forecast was 48, down 42.17%; the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 4079, down 0.85% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The Cangzhou super - grade spot price was 9200 yuan/ton, down 0.11%; the Cangzhou first - grade spot price was 7900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Cangzhou second - grade spot price was 6900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Cangzhou super - grade and the main contract was - 385 yuan/ton, up 114.44%; the basis of Cangzhou first - grade and the main contract was 115 yuan/ton, up 187.50% [6]. Apples - **Futures Market**: On March 11, the price of apple 2605 (main contract) was 10303 yuan/ton, up 0.16%; the price of apple 2610 was 8647 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. The spread was - 1525 yuan/ton, down 6.35%; the 5 - 10 spread was 1656 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The open interest was 134039 lots, down 5.64% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival of trucks at the Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market was 26, up 18.18%; at the Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market was 14, up 16.67%; at the Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market was 18, up 20.00%. The national cold - storage inventory was 527.53 tons, down 4.59%. The futures profit was - 1525 yuan/ton, down 6.35% [7]. Corn - **Futures Market**: On March 11, the price of corn 2605 was 2381 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The basis was 39 yuan/ton, up 160.00%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 26 yuan/ton, down 23.81%. The open interest was 2055341 lots, down 2.19%. The number of warehouse receipts was 74613, up 1.04% [14]. - **Spot Market**: The Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port was 2420 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the market price at Shekou Port was 2490 yuan/ton, down 0.40%. The north - south trade profit was 19 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Brazilian arrival duty - paid price was 2314 yuan/ton, down 0.52%. The import profit was 176 yuan/ton, up 1.16% [14]. Corn Starch - **Futures Market**: On March 11, the price of corn starch 2605 was 2706 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The basis was 185 yuan/ton, up 12.80%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 17 yuan/ton, down 54.55%. The open interest was 347826 lots, down 0.11%. The number of warehouse receipts was 6710, down 44.13% [14]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of corn starch was 2891 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The Weifang spot price was 2940 yuan/ton, up 0.68%; the Changchun spot price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The starch - corn 05 spread on the futures market was 325 yuan/ton, up 1.25%. The Shandong starch profit was - 3 yuan/ton, up 25.00% [14]. Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: On March 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3200 yuan/ton, down 2.14%; the futures price of M2605 was 2973 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The basis was 227 yuan/ton, down 17.45%. The import crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans for May shipment was 251 yuan/ton, up 10.6%. The number of warehouse receipts was 38493, down 0.4% [17]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2580 yuan/ton, down 4.09%; the futures price of RM2605 was 2402 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The basis was 178 yuan/ton, down 30.74%. The import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed for May shipment was - 84 yuan/ton, down 47.37%. The number of warehouse receipts was 2311, up 63.78% [17]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 44

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The meetings this week met expectations, with structural transformation and upgrading as the highlights, slightly stabilizing market sentiment. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East may gradually ease as the possibility of subsequent negotiations increases, but uncertainties remain high. It is recommended to wait for a clearer macro - situation before taking action [2] - Geopolitical conflicts cause continuous liquidity disturbances, and capital reduction puts pressure on precious metal prices. Different precious metals have different trends and corresponding operational suggestions [2] - Steel prices maintain a volatile trend, and the supply pressure of iron ore remains. Other ferrous metal products also show different trends and have corresponding trading suggestions [2] - Non - ferrous metals show different trends due to factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and geopolitical risks, with corresponding trading strategies [2] - New energy products are affected by macro and supply - side uncertainties, showing a wide - range adjustment or volatile trend [2] - Energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost. Different products have different trends and trading suggestions [2] - Agricultural products show different trends. For example, oilseeds are driven by crude oil to rise, while other products such as sugar, cotton, etc. have their own characteristics and corresponding trading strategies [2] Summary by Catalog Index - This week's meetings met expectations, with structural transformation and upgrading as the highlights, slightly stabilizing market sentiment. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East may gradually ease as the possibility of subsequent negotiations increases, but uncertainties remain high. It is recommended to wait and see, reduce operations, maintain a low position, and wait for a clearer macro - situation [2] Precious Metals - Gold is seeking support at the 20 - day moving average, with a volatile short - term trend. It is recommended to wait and see, take profits on long positions at high prices, or sell out - of - the - money call options to protect long positions. Silver is affected by geopolitical risks, fluctuating and testing the support of the 60 - day moving average. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to earn time value. Platinum and palladium are supported by supply expectations but are dragged down by gold and silver, maintaining a weak and volatile short - term trend. It is recommended to sell out - of - the money call options [2] Ferrous Metals - Steel prices maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand after the holiday. The price of iron ore is in a range - bound state, and the supply pressure remains. Other ferrous metal products such as coking coal, coke, etc. also have corresponding trading suggestions based on their supply - demand situations [2] Non - Ferrous Metals - Non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. show different trends due to factors such as supply - demand mismatch, inventory changes, and geopolitical risks. Different trading strategies are recommended for different metals, such as short - term waiting and long - term buying at low prices [2] New Energy - New energy products such as industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are affected by macro and supply - side uncertainties, showing a wide - range adjustment or volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or take corresponding actions according to the market situation [2] Energy and Chemicals - Energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand changes, and cost. For example, crude oil, PX, PTA, etc. have different trends and trading suggestions, such as holding long positions cautiously or rolling low - buying [2] Agricultural Products - Agricultural products such as oilseeds, grains, and livestock products show different trends. For example, oilseeds are driven by crude oil to rise, while other products such as sugar, cotton, etc. have their own characteristics and corresponding trading strategies [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors drive short - term strength in the polyester sector, but there is a risk of price pull - backs after surges [1] - PX: Supply expectations decline due to geopolitical impacts, and demand from downstream PTA improves, leading to a short - term upward trend, but attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics [6] - PTA: Although the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, there is an overall inventory accumulation expectation, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side [10] - MEG: The cost support is enhanced, and the supply is expected to decline, with prices likely to be strong in the short term [13] - Polyester: The load continues to rise, and inventory is reduced due to speculative stocking, but new orders need time to catch up [157][158][159] - Short - fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it fluctuates with raw materials [200] - Bottle - chip: Supply gradually increases, prices follow raw materials, and processing fees fluctuate [246] 3. Summary by Directory PX - **Market Overview**: Asian PX prices rose significantly, with the absolute price increasing by 15.8% week - on - week to $1079/ton CFR. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz strengthened the expectation of Asian refinery load reduction, driving up prices [28] - **Supply**: Asian and domestic PX operating rates declined. Domestic PX load dropped to 90.4% (- 2%), and Asian PX load dropped to 83.2% (- 1.7%). Some domestic and overseas refineries reduced their loads [29] - **Demand**: Downstream PTA load increased to 81% (+ 3.4%), with some devices restarting or increasing loads [5] - **Valuation**: Neutral. PXN first compressed and then recovered, from $295/ton to $251/ton and then back to around $304/ton [6] - **Outlook**: Supply is expected to decline, and demand is improving. Short - term prices are strong, but attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics [6] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, beware of the risk of price pull - backs after surges and do not chase long positions. For arbitrage, wait and see [7] PTA - **Market Overview**: PTA prices rose significantly, with the weekly average spot price increasing by 7.5%. The futures price hit the daily limit on Thursday, and the spot price followed. The basis strengthened [80] - **Supply**: Domestic PTA load increased to 81% (+ 3.4%), with some devices restarting or increasing loads and some in maintenance [81] - **Demand**: Polyester load increased to 84.1% (+ 4.6%), and the downstream demand was gradually recovering [9] - **Valuation**: Neutral - low. The spot processing fee was around 242 yuan/ton, and the TA2605 and TA2609 disk processing fees were 391 yuan/ton and 449 yuan/ton respectively [10] - **Outlook**: Although the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, there is an overall inventory accumulation expectation. The absolute price fluctuates with the cost side [10] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, beware of the risk of price pull - backs after surges and do not chase long positions. For arbitrage, wait and see [10][11] MEG - **Market Overview**: The domestic and foreign prices of MEG rose. The basis first rose and then fell, and the 5 - 9 spread increased significantly [115][116] - **Supply**: The average comprehensive operating rate of MEG was 74.14%, and the coal - based operating rate was 83.03%. Some devices were in maintenance or reduced loads, and port inventory continued to accumulate to 100.2 tons [115][126] - **Demand**: The polyester load increased seasonally, and the demand for MEG is expected to increase [13] - **Valuation**: The oil - based profit of MEG decreased significantly, and the coal - based profit increased. The EO - EG spread first decreased and then increased [116] - **Outlook**: The cost support is enhanced, and the supply is expected to decline. The price is likely to be strong in the short term, with inventory reduction expected in March and continued inventory reduction in April - May [13][147] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, wait and see. For inter - period trading, go long on the EG5 - 9 spread when the price is low. For options, lightly buy EG2605 call options [14] Polyester - **Supply**: The polyester load increased to 84.1% (+ 4.6%), with some devices restarting and some in maintenance [157] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polyester filament factories decreased, with POY, FDY, and DTY equity inventories at 14 (- 6.1), 20.1 (- 4.5), and 25.3 (- 9.3) days respectively [158] - **Demand**: The downstream demand was gradually recovering, but new orders were slow to follow up. The terminal speculative stocking increased [159] - **Outlook**: The load continues to rise, and inventory is reduced due to speculative stocking, but new orders need time to catch up [157][158][159] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided in the report Short - fiber - **Supply**: The operating rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased to 84.6% (+ 10.2%) [203] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory decreased, with the 1.4D equity inventory at 10.2 days (- 2.1) and the physical inventory at 17.2 days (- 3.2) [204] - **Demand**: The load of downstream pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn increased, but the cash - flow was in a loss [205] - **Valuation**: The processing fee was compressed, with the spot processing fee at around 944 yuan/ton and the PF2604 and PF2605 disk processing fees at 883 yuan/ton and 865 yuan/ton respectively [206] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it fluctuates with raw materials [200] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the PF04 is the same as PTA. For arbitrage, the PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 yuan/ton [20] Bottle - chip - **Supply**: The production of polyester bottle - chips increased to 31.68 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.42% (+ 1.14 percentage points) [248] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory decreased, with the physical inventory days at 15.03 days (- 1.52 days) [248] - **Demand**: The downstream demand was gradually recovering, with the soft - drink industry operating at 70 - 80% and the oil refinery at around 58%, and the PET sheet industry at 50 - 60% [248] - **Valuation**: The profit decreased slightly, with the average spot processing fee at 570.29 yuan/ton (- 24 yuan/ton) [248] - **Outlook**: Supply gradually increases, prices follow raw materials, and processing fees fluctuate [246] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the PR is the same as PTA. The PR main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton. Hold call - option buyers [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The risk appetite declined rapidly due to geopolitical influence and then recovered during the domestic Two Sessions. The A-share market is testing for stabilization. [3] - For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see. For options, hold the bull spread portfolio constructed with put options. [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Indicators - **Market Overview**: This week, the four major index futures contracts declined with the index. IF and IH fell 1.32% and 1.75% respectively, while IC and IM fell 3.60% and 3.64% respectively. From the changes in the positions of the top 20 seats, the net short positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 7155, 402, 8025, and 3673 lots respectively. As of Friday, the optimal roll - over contracts for IF, IH, IC, and IM were the 2604 contracts, and the optimal annualized roll - over costs were 2.47%, 0.58%, 4.11%, and 5.42% respectively. [10] - **A - share Performance**: This week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index fell 1.07%, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 1.54%, the CSI 500 Index fell 3.44%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 3.64%. [11] - **Basis and Cross - variety Ratios**: The basis of the four major index futures contracts oscillated neutrally, and the long - side strength weakened relatively. After March, it showed a downward trend due to dividend expectations. The current basis of the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts were - 14.44, - 2.70, - 37.73, and - 37.06 points respectively. The futures contract ratios, PE ratios, and PB ratios of CSI 1000/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and CSI 500/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 decreased, and the value style was more stable during the decline. [12] - **Industry Sector Performance**: Most of the Wind primary industry indices declined this week, while the energy sector rose against the trend. The top - rising sectors included materials, energy, and public utilities, with increases of 8.03%, 6.31%, and 5.50% respectively. The top - falling sectors included communication services, finance, and daily consumption, with decreases of 3.20%, 1.10%, and 0.18% respectively. [15] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the four major index futures significantly contracted. [16] - **Spot - Futures Price Difference Trend**: The basis oscillated and declined, and the seasonality gradually emerged. [21] - **Inter - period Spread Trend**: The report provides the inter - period spread trends of IF, IC, IH, and IM. [26][27][29] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: The risk appetite was under pressure, and the valuations of small - and medium - cap stocks declined relatively. [34] - **Positions of the Top 20 Seats and Market Trends**: The long - to - short ratios generally declined. [42] - **Short - side Roll - over Costs**: The annualized short - side roll - over cost of the next - month contract was the lowest. [50] 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamental Tracking - **Domestic High - frequency Macroeconomic Tracking**: In January, M1 and M2 increased by 4.9% and 9.0% year - on - year respectively, with the growth rates accelerating by 1.1 and 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the corporate sector's credit increased significantly year - on - year. [60] - **Real Estate**: From January to December 2025, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and national real - estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, with the decline still expanding. The land transactions in first - tier cities significantly rebounded, and the commercial housing transactions rebounded slightly at the beginning of 2026. [60][61][68] - **Consumption**: In January, consumer demand continued to recover. CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.8% year - on - year. PPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month and decreased by 1.4% year - on - year. [60] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49% (previous value: 49.3%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5% (previous value: 49.4%). The steel tire operating rates continued to rise, while automobile sales declined in January. [60] - **Foreign Trade**: In December, China's exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was 114.1 billion US dollars. The freight rate indices showed an upward trend. [60] 3.3 Liquidity Tracking - **Liquidity Indicator Tracking**: On March 6, the SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.32%, unchanged from last week. The LPR remained unchanged, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. This week, the central bank conducted 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, and due to the maturity of 1525 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, the net withdrawal for the whole week was 1247.4 billion yuan. This week, A - share funds had a cumulative net active sell - off of 406.796 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume of A - shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.62 trillion yuan, the margin trading balance decreased, the short - selling balance increased, and the net outflow of equity ETF funds was 4.6 billion yuan. [94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by Middle - East geopolitics, the short - term trends of pure benzene and styrene are bullish, but there is a risk of a sharp fall after a rise. The short - term market speculative sentiment is strong, and the current price premium is high. For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decline, and the demand support is strong in the short term; for styrene, the supply increase is limited in March, and there is a slight destocking expectation. [1][6][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene 3.1.1 Supply - The weekly output of petroleum benzene is 453,300 tons (-13,700 tons), and the operating rate is 76.56% (-2.31%). Sinopec Quanzhou's reforming unit is starting up, Zhejiang Petrochemical's reforming unit is shut down, and some enterprises' loads have decreased. The operating rate of hydro - benzene remains stable at 62.67%. [4] - From March to May, the planned new production capacity of pure benzene is about 620,000 tons/year, and the planned shutdown involves a production capacity of 3.48 million tons/year. The estimated new output is about 36,000 tons, and the loss in production during the period is about 206,000 tons. [17] 3.1.2 Demand - The comprehensive operating rate of downstream industries has slightly declined. The operating rate of styrene is 74.11% (-0.1%), phenol is 89% (-1%), caprolactam remains stable at 74.5%, and aniline is 89.35% (+0.23%). The consumption of the three major downstream styrene is 263,900 tons (+71,300 tons). [5][9] - From March to May, the new production capacity of downstream is about 1.53 million tons/year. Considering the restart of some long - shut - down devices, the estimated new output of pure benzene in downstream is about 197,000 tons, and the demand loss due to downstream device maintenance is about 312,000 tons. [17] 3.1.3 Valuation - The valuation is neutral. In March, the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene has improved. Driven by the cost side, the price has strengthened. The BZN has been repaired, expanding from 140 US dollars/ton in the previous week to around 192 US dollars/ton. [6] 3.1.4 Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term market speculative sentiment is strong, and the current price premium is high. Long positions should be cautious about the risk of a sharp fall after a rise. It is not recommended to continue to chase long positions. Pay attention to the oil price trend. - Arbitrage: The fundamentals of pure benzene are better than those of styrene in the future. It is expected that the processing spread between styrene and pure benzene will continue to compress (currently, the EB04 - BZ04 spread is 1363). [7][10] 3.2 Styrene 3.2.1 Supply - The weekly output of styrene is 371,700 tons (-700 tons), and the operating rate is 74.11% (-0.13%). There are no new start - up or shut - down devices in China during the cycle, and the loads of individual devices in the Northeast, East, and South China have been slightly adjusted. In March, some devices are expected to restart, but some devices also have maintenance plans, so the supply increase is limited. [11] 3.2.2 Demand - After the Spring Festival, downstream demand is gradually recovering. Coupled with the previous export shipments, there is a slight destocking expectation for styrene supply - demand in March. As of March 6, the consumption of the main downstream of styrene (EPS, PS, ABS) in China is 263,900 tons, an increase of 71,300 tons from last week. [11][83] 3.2.3 Valuation - The valuation is high. Due to the good profit of the styrene industry, the load of styrene factories remains stable. After the Spring Festival, the downstream load has recovered rapidly, and there are still export transactions. The supply - demand of styrene has improved marginally, and the profit has been maintained. The non - integrated cash flow has been slightly compressed from 628 yuan/ton in the previous week to around 623 yuan/ton. [11] 3.2.4 Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term market speculative sentiment is strong, and the current price premium is high. Long positions should be cautious about the risk of a sharp fall after a rise. It is not recommended to continue to chase long positions. Pay attention to the oil price trend. - Arbitrage: The fundamentals of pure benzene are better than those of styrene in the future. It is expected that the processing spread between styrene and pure benzene will continue to compress (currently, the EB04 - BZ04 spread is 1363). [7][10] 3.3 2026 Production Plan 3.3.1 Pure Benzene - The total planned production capacity of pure benzene in 2026 is 2.41 million tons, with multiple enterprises in different provinces having new production capacity. The total planned production capacity of pure benzene downstream in 2026 is 2.13 million tons, with a total consumption of pure benzene of 1.75 million tons. [13] 3.3.2 Styrene - The total planned production capacity of styrene in 2025 is 2.37 million tons, and in 2026 is 700,000 tons. The total planned production capacity of styrene downstream in 2026 is 2.8 million tons, with a total consumption of styrene of 2.35 million tons. [14] 3.4 2026 March - May Pure Benzene Industry Chain Device Dynamics - Multiple enterprises' devices have defensive production cuts or maintenance plans from March to May, with a total planned shutdown production capacity of 3.48 million tons. [16] - Overall, from March to May, the net supply of the domestic pure benzene industry chain decreases by about 170,000 tons, and the net demand decreases by about 115,000 tons, showing a destocking trend. [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year percentiles, and all - time percentiles of various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. It also shows cross - variety ratios [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - The report provides the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing for various treasury bond futures spreads, such as basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads [2]. 2.3 Capital Flow and Key Seats' Position Changes Daily Report - The report shows the capital inflow and outflow of varieties and the position changes of key seats, with the vertical axis percentage calculated as net position divided by total position (unilateral) and daily position increase/decrease divided by total position (unilateral) [3]. 2.4 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - Gold is stabilizing above the 20 - day moving average, generally maintaining a range of 5000 - 5300 dollars. One should be cautious with unilateral operations and can observe the volatility changes of observable targets. In the short term, one can sell out - of - the - money call options above 1200 yuan. - Silver may still face downward pressure under multiple factors. Attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average. In the case of converging volatility, it operates in the range of 80 - 90 dollars. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to earn time value. - Platinum and palladium prices are generally supported by macro - financial attributes and a tight supply pattern. The industrial demand is stable and the investment demand is slightly warming. The platinum price fluctuates in the range of 2050 - 2250 dollars, and one can roll and sell out - of - the - money call options [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread - **IF**: The current IF spot - futures spread is - 10.76, with a 70.40% historical 1 - year percentile and 37.20% all - time percentile. The cross - period spreads also have corresponding values and percentiles [1]. - **IH**: The IH spot - futures spread is - 0.44, with a 63.50% historical 1 - year percentile and 52.80% all - time percentile. Different cross - period spreads are presented with their respective data [1]. - **IC**: The IC spot - futures spread is - 16.70, with an 80.30% historical 1 - year percentile and 57.30% all - time percentile. Multiple cross - period spreads are shown [1]. - **IM**: The IM spot - futures spread is 23.62, with a 30.00% historical 1 - year percentile and 43.10% all - time percentile. Cross - period spreads are provided [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 200/SSE 20, CSI 300/SSE 50, and others are presented with their latest values, changes, and percentiles [1]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Basis**: The IRR of TF basis is 1.3770 (on 2026 - 03 - 10), with a change of - 0.0058 and a 16.20% percentile since listing. Other basis values for T, TL, etc. are also given [2]. - **Cross - period Spreads**: For TS, TF, T, and TL, cross - period spreads like current quarter - next quarter, next quarter - far quarter are presented with their values, changes, and percentiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, TF - T, etc. are provided with relevant data [2]. 3.3 Capital Flow and Key Seats' Position Changes - The report shows the net position and daily position increase/decrease percentages of seats like Morgan Stanley, UBS Futures, CITIC Futures, and Guotai Junan [3]. 3.4 Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2604 contract closed at 1150.00 yuan/gram on March 10, up 0.88% from the previous day. Other contracts like AG2604, PT2606, and PD2606 also have their closing prices and price changes [4]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold, silver, NYMEX platinum, and palladium futures have their closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes on March 10 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold, silver, spot platinum, and palladium, as well as Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D and silver T + D, have their current prices, price changes, and percentage changes [4]. - **Basis**: The basis values of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, etc., along with their changes and historical 1 - year percentiles, are presented [4]. - **Ratios**: Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver, SHFE gold/silver, NYMEX platinum/palladium, and GZFE platinum/palladium are given with their values, changes, and percentage changes [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield, 2 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate have their current values, changes, and percentage changes [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The inventory of SHFE gold, silver, COMEX gold, and silver, as well as the positions of COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts, SPDR gold ETF, and SLV silver ETF, have their current values, changes, and percentage changes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Short - term开工 will remain high, but geopolitical factors still exist. With the post - holiday orders of domestic agents being sent out, the domestic shortage of some enterprises will be alleviated. Due to the high overseas raw material prices providing cost support and the geopolitical factors causing price fluctuations, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 16,500 - 17,500 [1]. Urea - On March 10, the urea futures followed the chemical sector, opening low and moving high, and the spot market price was adjusted upwards. The fundamentals of urea have not changed much, with high - level production. There is still pressure on the supply side. There is still some demand for green - turning fertilizer in the agricultural sector, and industrial demand is recovering. In the short term, the urea price is relatively strong, but after the green - turning fertilizer season ends in the second half of the month, there may be a market downturn. The main contract should focus on whether it can break through the 1,860 - 1,900 range [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: On March 10, the caustic soda futures hit the daily limit down during the session and then rose at the end. The spot market is still optimistic, and the caustic soda price has been slightly increased. The supply - side load is slowly recovering, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The demand from the alumina industry is stable, and non - aluminum downstream demand is improving. Due to the Middle East conflict, the international supply chain risk has increased, and the export expectation has strengthened. However, the overall supply - demand situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to the actual delivery volume and price fluctuations [5]. - **PVC**: On March 10, the PVC futures price dropped significantly, and the low - price transactions in the spot market were good. The supply - demand situation has changed slightly. The ethylene - based production enterprises may reduce their loads in the long term, while the calcium carbide - based production enterprises have slightly increased their loads and costs. Domestic demand is normal, and foreign trade exports are waiting for new quotes. The PVC price may be passively pushed up, but it is also affected by the uncertainty of the cost - end transmission [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: On March 10, the soda ash futures fell, and the spot price was driven up but the trading was light. The weekly production increased slightly, and the production line load fluctuated. The demand was average, and downstream enterprises replenished their inventories moderately. It is expected to continue to fluctuate and decline, and short - selling can be attempted at the current price [6]. - **Glass**: On March 10, the glass futures price dropped. The spot price was raised. The supply - side daily melting volume remained low, and a new production line was ignited. The demand from downstream deep - processing and low - e products was average, and the futures price decline reduced the purchasing intention of futures - spot merchants. The inventory of production enterprises still faced pressure, and it is expected to continue to accumulate this week. The cost increase from energy prices needs further observation. It is expected to fluctuate and decline, with a reference range of 1,000 - 1,150. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Polyolefins - The Middle East geopolitical situation is the core driver. The short - term logic is dominated by cost - push and supply reduction, and the fundamentals are secondary. The market is in a "strong expectation, weak reality" game stage. The price fluctuates sharply following geopolitical news, and the high price lacks actual transaction support. After Trump's statement, the crude oil price fluctuated extremely, causing the domestic futures and spot prices to drop significantly, and the market is in a state of high volatility, low trading volume, and fragility [7]. Methanol - The methanol futures dropped significantly, and the spot was purchased on demand. The basis was relatively strong, and the overall transaction was okay. The domestic production device load remained at a relatively high level, but due to shipping interruptions, the market strongly expected a significant reduction in subsequent imports. The demand side remained weak, and the olefin开工 rate of the main downstream continued to decline. The current port inventory is still at a relatively high level in history, but the market expects the port to enter the de - stocking cycle. The current price trend is mainly driven by the supply interruption expectation and risk sentiment, and the subsequent trend depends on the actual progress of the geopolitical conflict [8]. LPG No specific view on the trend of LPG is provided in the report, only price, inventory, and开工 rate data are presented [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: Due to the geopolitical influence, the crude oil transportation is blocked, and the Asian refinery开工 rate is expected to be affected. Some refineries at home and abroad have adjusted their loads, and combined with some device maintenance plans, the pure benzene supply is expected to decline. The downstream styrene industry has maintained its profit and load at a relatively high level, and the short - term demand support is strong. The pure benzene supply - demand expectation has improved, but it will fluctuate with the crude oil price. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and shrink the spread between EB04 and BZ04 when it is high [12]. - **Styrene**: The styrene industry has good profits, and the supply in March will remain at a high level. The demand side is expected to gradually recover after the holiday, and the supply - demand in March is expected to slightly de - stock. It will also fluctuate with the crude oil price. The same strategy as for pure benzene is recommended [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Due to the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, some PX factories in Asia have issued force majeure, and the PX supply is gradually affected. After the holiday, some PTA devices have restarted or increased their loads due to improved processing fees, and the PX supply - demand situation is gradually improving. It is expected to fluctuate with the crude oil price. It is recommended to wait and see for now and go long at a low price after the market stabilizes [13]. - **PTA**: The PTA load has increased after the holiday, and the March device maintenance plan is less than expected. Although the supply - demand expectation has improved, there is still an inventory accumulation expectation. It will follow the cost - end fluctuation. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and pay attention to the oil price trend [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: In March, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has significantly decreased due to the shutdown or load reduction of multiple coal - based and oil - based ethylene glycol devices. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected the transportation of overseas sources, and the arrival volume of foreign ships will be low from mid - March. The polyester load will seasonally recover in March, and the de - stocking amplitude may increase. However, due to Trump's statement, the short - term price may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply - demand pattern is still weak. It will follow the raw material price fluctuation and is affected by the cautious downstream procurement. It is recommended to have the same single - side strategy as PTA, and the PF disk processing fee will fluctuate between 800 - 1,100 [13]. - **Bottle - chip**: The domestic bottle - chip supply will gradually increase in March. The absolute price will follow the cost - end fluctuation, and the processing fee will fluctuate. It is recommended to have the same single - side strategy as PTA, and the PR main - contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton [13]. Crude Oil - WTI 04 - month contract closed at $83.45 per barrel, down 11.94%, and Brent 05 - month contract closed at $87.80 per barrel, down 11.28%. The G7 energy ministers did not reach an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves. Due to the drone attack, ADNOC has closed its refinery. The US strategic oil reserve remains stable. It will take at least 4 - 6 weeks for the Gulf region to fully resume export functions, and Iran has not clearly stated to stop the blockade. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate significantly [14]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.18%. The full - latex basis decreased by 420 yuan/ton to - 362 yuan/ton, with a decline of 763.64%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton to 15,850 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.63% [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to - 680 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.16%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 560 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.61%. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at 120 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, Thailand's production increased by 54,800 tons to 549,000 tons, with an increase of 11.09%. Indonesia's production decreased by 28,200 tons to 161,100 tons, with a decline of 14.90%. India's production decreased by 3,900 tons to 108,100 tons, with a decline of 3.48%. In December, China's production decreased by 84,500 tons to 51,200 tons. The开工 rate of semi - steel tires increased by 39.47 percentage points to 74.03%, and the开工 rate of full - steel tires increased by 36.73 percentage points to 65.90%. In December, the domestic tire production increased by 473,500 pieces to 10,656,300 pieces, with an increase of 4.65%. The tire export volume increased by 186,000 pieces to 5,843,000 pieces, with an increase of 3.29%. The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 159,900 tons to 803,400 tons, with an increase of 24.84% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 200 tons to 680,412 tons, with an increase of 0.07%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 202 tons to 20,399 tons, with a decline of 0.40% [1]. Urea - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: The 01 contract decreased by 34 yuan/ton to 1,849 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.81%. The 05 contract decreased by 49 yuan/ton to 1,856 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.57%. The 09 contract decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 1,884 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.88%. The 01 - 05 spread decreased by 22 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, and the 05 - 09 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 13 yuan/ton [4]. - **Main - contract Position**: The long - position of the top 20 decreased by 14,403 to 121,561, with a decline of 10.59%. The short - position of the top 20 decreased by 25,730 to 177,959, with a decline of 14.46% [4]. - **Upstream Raw Material Price**: The price of anthracite small pieces in Jincheng remained unchanged at 920 yuan/ton. The price of thermal coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner remained unchanged at 550 yuan/ton. The price of thermal coal at the port in Qinhuangdao remained unchanged at 746 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Market Price**: The price of small - particle urea in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,890 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.53%. The price in Guangdong increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,980 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.54% [4]. - **Supply - demand Overview**: The daily production of domestic urea increased by 3,200 tons to 221,200 tons, with an increase of 1.49%. The weekly production decreased by 15,700 tons to 1,003,000 tons, with a decline of 13.53%. The factory - warehouse inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 190,000 tons, with an increase of 9.20% [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged at 1,843.8 yuan/ton. The price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,220 yuan/ton. The price of PVC in East China by calcium carbide method decreased by 610 yuan/ton to 5,120 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10.6%. The price of PVC in East China by ethylene method increased by 200 yuan/ton to 6,300 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.3% [5]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The FOB price at East China ports increased by 10 US dollars/ton to 340 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 3.0%. The export profit increased by 42.6 yuan/ton to 230.2 yuan/ton, with an increase of 22.7% [5]. - **PVC Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The CFR price in Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 700 US dollars/ton. The CFR price in India increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 740 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 2.8%. The FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC at Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 635 US dollars/ton. The export profit increased by 37.3 yuan/ton to 84.3 yuan/ton, with an increase of 79.4% [5]. - **Supply (Caustic Soda and PVC开工率 and Industry Profit)**: The开工率 of the caustic soda industry increased by 1.5 percentage points to 86.4%. The total开工率 of PVC decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 81.1%. The profit of PVC by external - purchase calcium carbide method increased by 135 yuan/ton to - 507 yuan/ton, with an increase of 21.0%. The profit of northwest integrated production increased by 65 yuan/ton to - 293.1 yuan/ton, with an increase of 18.2% [5]. - **Demand (Caustic Soda and PVC Downstream开工率)**: The开工率 of the alumina industry decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 82.6%. The开工率 of the viscose staple fiber industry increased by 1.7 percentage points to 90.1%. The开机率 of the printing and dyeing industry increased by 18.1 percentage points to 42.5%. The开工率 of Longzhong sample pipes increased by 19.4 percentage points to 33.0%. The开工率 of Longzhong sample profiles increased by 16.1 percentage points to 27.4% [5]. - **Inventory (Caustic Soda and PVC Social and Factory - warehouse Inventory)**: The factory - warehouse inventory of caustic soda increased by 0.9 tons to 55 tons, with an increase of 1.7%. The upstream factory - warehouse inventory of PVC decreased by 46,000 tons to 458,000 tons, with a decline of 9.0%. The total social inventory of PVC decreased by 46,000 tons to 458,000 tons, with a decline of 9.0% [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The price in North China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,070 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.94%. The price in East China remained unchanged at 1,230 yuan/ton. The glass 2605 contract decreased by 28 yuan/ton to 1,076 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.54%. The 05 basis increased by 38 yuan/ton to - 6 yuan/ton, with an increase of 86.36% [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The price in North China increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,280 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.40%. The price in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,25

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Crude oil and coking coal prices have fallen, causing steel prices to rise and then fall. Steel mill production remains stable, inventory is seasonally decreasing, and apparent demand is rising. It is necessary to focus on the height of the rebound in apparent demand. The government work report of the Two Sessions is basically in line with expectations, and the domestic demand expectation does not fluctuate much. The main focus is on the marginal changes in steel exports. Since the US - Iran conflict, steel exports have declined due to shipping disruptions. It is judged that steel prices will fluctuate within a range, with attention paid to the pressure levels of around 3150 yuan/ton for rebar and 3300 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated upward yesterday. Affected by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the iron ore market fluctuated more violently. In the short term, positive factors for iron ore are dominant, and geopolitical conflicts will further intensify market fluctuations. In terms of fundamentals, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this period, and the decline in Brazil and non - mainstream regions was significant. On the demand side, hot - rolled coil inventory pressure is prominent. In the short term, iron ore prices will be boosted by geopolitical impacts and the unresolved BHP negotiation, and prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to observe in the short term [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, coke and coking coal futures both showed a downward trend from high levels. For coke, the first round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills was successfully implemented on March 6 and is expected to stabilize. The supply - demand situation is basically balanced in the short term. For coking coal, the price of coke was cut by mainstream steel mills on March 4 to reduce costs, and it is expected that the coke price will stabilize. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to view both coke and coking coal as oscillating, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850 for coke and 1100 - 1250 for coking coal, and to consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry - Yesterday, the silicon iron main contract fell sharply, and the silicon manganese main contract opened low and then recovered losses, both affected by geopolitical conflicts. For silicon iron, supply decreased slightly last week, with output cuts in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia and increases in Qinghai and Gansu. For silicon manganese, supply decreased slightly, and the output absolute value is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. In terms of demand, iron - making water output decreased significantly during the Two Sessions but is expected to rise with the recovery of terminal demand. In the short term, steel exports to the Middle East will be blocked, but there may be an export substitution effect in the long term. It is recommended to observe the market and operate cautiously [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in different regions (East China, North China, South China) and futures contract prices (05, 10, 01) showed different degrees of changes, with some prices remaining stable and some falling. Hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices also decreased to varying degrees [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices remained unchanged, and the costs and profits of different steel products in different regions (such as Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar cost, East China hot - rolled coil profit) changed. For example, the East China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 30, and the North China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 40 [1]. Production - The total output of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.1%, with an increase in electric - furnace output by 349.6% and a decrease in converter output by 0.5%. The hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.7% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.7%, the rebar inventory increased by 9.4%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 27.7%, while the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 22.4%, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 192.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 4.9% [1]. Iron - making Water Output - The daily average iron - making water output decreased by 2.4% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore varieties (such as Carajás fines, PB fines) and the basis of 05 contracts showed different degrees of changes. The 5 - 9 spread and 9 - 1 spread also increased [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port remained stable, while the price of Brazilian mixed fines increased by 0.4%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price increased by 1.0% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 21.6%, the global shipment volume decreased by 13.3%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 18.4% [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4%, the 45 - port daily average ore - evacuation volume increased by 4.2%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 2.6%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 2.4% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.2%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.8%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of different coke varieties (such as Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke, Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke) and futures contracts (05, 09) decreased to varying degrees. The coking profit increased by 24 [7]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained stable, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 3.9% [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2%. The output of raw coal and clean coal in Fenwei sample coal mines increased [7]. Demand - The iron - making water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4% [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 0.5%, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.3%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6%, and the port inventory increased by 3.0%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased, while the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports decreased [7]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased from - 1.6 to 0.7, an increase of 2.3 [7]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry Futures and Spot - The silicon iron main contract price increased slightly, and the silicon manganese main contract price decreased. The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions decreased to varying degrees [8]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions changed slightly, and the production profits decreased significantly. For example, the production profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia decreased from 200 to 30, a decrease of 85.0% [8]. Supply - The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 57.6%, the arrival volume increased by 1.8%, and the port inventory decreased by 4.6%. The silicon iron output decreased by 2.1%, and the production enterprise's start - up rate decreased by 6.3% [8]. Demand - The silicon iron demand remained unchanged, the 247 - steel - mill daily average iron - making water output decreased by 2.4%, the blast - furnace start - up rate decreased by 3.1%, the output of five major steel products increased by 0.1%, and the silicon manganese demand increased by 0.9% [8]. Inventory Changes - The silicon iron inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 5.9%, and the silicon manganese inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased by 2.8% [8].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Gold's support level at $5000 on the 20-day moving average is crucial. It's advisable to wait for a clear trend before taking action. Observe the volatility of the target to see if it declines. In the short term, sell out-of-the-money call options above 1170 yuan [1] - Silver prices may still face downward pressure due to multiple factors. Pay attention to the support of the 60-day moving average. When volatility converges, the operating range is between $80 - $90. Sell out-of-the-money call options to earn time value [1] - Platinum and palladium will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Platinum prices seek support around 550 yuan, and palladium may decline to around 410 yuan. Roll and sell out-of-the-money call options [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1140.80 yuan/g, down 11.20 yuan or -0.97% from the previous day [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 21740 yuan/ten pieces, up 101 yuan or 0.47% [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 560.50 yuan/g, down 3.45 yuan or -0.61% [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 421.50 yuan, down 6.50 yuan or -1.52% [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at $5181.30, up $88.00 or 1.73% [1] - COMEX silver main contract closed at $84.70, up $2.18 or 2.64% [1] - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at $2151.80 per ounce, up $23.60 or 1.11% [1] - NYMEX palladium main contract closed at $1657.00, up $7.00 or 0.42% [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at $5168.01, up $83.32 or 1.64% [1] - London silver was at $84.48, up $2.22 or 2.70% [1] - Spot platinum was at $2109.00, down $40.00 or -1.86% [1] - Spot palladium was at $1626.00, down $19.00 or -1.16% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T+D was at 1138.46 yuan/g, down 10.10 yuan or -0.88% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T+D was at 21350 yuan/ten pieces, up 282 yuan or 1.34% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 552 yuan/g, down 2 yuan or -0.41% [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was -2.34, up 1.10, with a 1-year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis was -390, up 181, with a 1-year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - London gold - COMEX gold basis was -13.29, down 4.68, with a 1-year historical quantile of 58.30% [1] - London silver - COMEX silver basis was -0.22, up 0.04, with a 1-year historical quantile of 34.60% [1] Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver ratio was 61.18, down 0.55 or -0.88% [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 52.47, down 0.76 or -1.43% [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.30, up 0.01 or 0.68% [1] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.33, up 0.01 or 0.92% [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.15%, up 0.02 percentage points or 0.5% [1] - 2-year US Treasury yield was 3.56%, down 0.01 percentage points or -0.3% [1] - 10-year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.80%, down 0.02 percentage points or -1.1% [1] - US dollar index was 98.96, down 0.09 or -0.09% [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9093, down 0.0091 or -0.13% [1] Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 105033, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 255952 kg, down 16769 kg or -6.15% [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 33081878, down 18415 or -0.06% [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 349145895 ounces, down 2196030 ounces or -0.63% [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 16899870, down 103591 or -0.61% [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 81733733, up 498427 or 0.61% [1] - SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1073, down 2.57 or -0.24% [1] - SLV silver ETF holdings were 15762, down 47.90 or -0.30% [1]