广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - A-share market has large trading divergence, small and medium-sized indexes have a supplementary decline, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The A-share market may enter a period of oscillation. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re-entry opportunities [2]. - The bond market may mainly depend on the policy strength and supply-demand situation in the first quarter. In the short term, it may still be in an oscillatory pattern. Unilateral strategies should maintain range operations, and attention should be paid to positive spreads of TS, T, and TF contracts and strategies to widen basis spreads in the spot-futures strategy [2]. - Affected by macro geopolitical events, the weakening of assets such as the US dollar supports the strong oscillation of gold prices. Gold above the 20-day moving average should continue to hold long positions; for silver, participate cautiously on a single side and sell out-of-the-money options to earn volatility reduction benefits; for platinum, use an option double-selling strategy; for palladium, sell out-of-the-money call options above 510 yuan [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - The A-share market has large trading divergence, small and medium-sized indexes have a supplementary decline, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The A-share market may enter a period of oscillation. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re-entry opportunities [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market may mainly depend on the policy strength and supply-demand situation in the first quarter. In the short term, it may still be in an oscillatory pattern. The 10-year bond interest rate may oscillate in the range of 1.82%-1.88%, and the T2603 contract may fluctuate in the range of 107.6-108.3. Unilateral strategies should maintain range operations, and attention should be paid to positive spreads of TS, T, and TF contracts and strategies to widen basis spreads in the spot-futures strategy [2]. Precious Metals - Affected by macro geopolitical events, the weakening of assets such as the US dollar supports the strong oscillation of gold prices. Gold above the 20-day moving average should continue to hold long positions; for silver, participate cautiously on a single side and sell out-of-the-money options to earn volatility reduction benefits; for platinum, use an option double-selling strategy; for palladium, sell out-of-the-money call options above 510 yuan [2]. Commodity Sector Metals - For steel, the weakening of raw material prices may drag down the steel price center. The fluctuation range of rebar is 3000-3200, and that of hot-rolled coil is 3150-3350. Long the steel-iron ore ratio and long the hot-rolled coil-rebar spread [2]. - For iron ore, the supply is in the off-season, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. It will have a wide-range oscillation in the range of 770-830 [2]. - For coke and coking coal, the coking coal price in Shanxi has more increases than decreases, and the Mongolian coal price has fallen from a high level. The coke price of mainstream coking enterprises starts to increase, and the port trade price has fallen. Both are expected to oscillate weakly, with the coking coal in the range of 1000-1150 and coke in the range of 1600-1750 [2]. - For non-ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. For example, copper should wait for adjustment to complete and then enter long positions; aluminum should wait for a callback to layout long positions; zinc should focus on the support around 23800 and take a long position at low prices in the long term; tin should participate cautiously in the short term and try a long position at low prices after the sentiment stabilizes [2]. Energy and Chemicals - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates weakly, with the main contract in the range of 8200-9200. For polysilicon, the average spot price has a small increase, and the futures price oscillates strongly. For lithium carbonate, the supply-side disturbance expectation rises again, and the price runs strongly. In the short term, wait and see, and in the medium term, go long at low prices [2]. - For PX, the supply-demand situation is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. It will oscillate at a high level in the short term, with the range of 7000-7500. For PTA, it will oscillate in the range of 4900-5300 in the short term, and go long below 5000. For short fiber, the supply-demand expectation is weak, and it follows the raw material fluctuation. For bottle chips, multiple bottle chip devices are under maintenance, and the factory inventory continues to decrease, which supports the processing fee [2]. - For ethanol, there is seasonal inventory accumulation, and the near-term supply-demand expectation is weak. The price of MEG in January is still under pressure. For pure benzene, the supply-demand situation has improved, but the high inventory suppresses the driving force. For styrene, the supply-demand is temporarily tight, but the rebound space is limited under high valuation [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybean meal, the market lacks driving force, and it oscillates weakly. For live pigs, it is difficult for the white-striped pork price to follow the increase, and the futures price is under pressure. For corn, there are both support and pressure, and it runs in a high-level range. For palm oil, boosted by exports, it tries to break through the annual resistance line [2]. - For sugar, the end of the stocking period is approaching, and the terminal demand is lower than expected. For cotton, the spot performance is strong, and the price continues to adjust. For eggs, the market performance varies, and the price continues to adjust. For apples, the trading has improved, and the futures price has stopped falling and stabilized. For jujubes, the demand is weak, and the futures price has weakened [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the spot market, due to low inventory in Jiangsu, there is a shortage of some specifications of logs and price increases. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expectation of a decrease in later shipments. However, demand remains weak, limiting the upside potential. Recently, affected by the sentiment of the black sector, the log futures have increased positions and declined, and the current price has fallen below the cost line. In the short term, the price is expected to have certain support [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of different log contracts on January 20, 2026: Log 2601 was 770.0, unchanged from the previous day; Log 2603 was 756.0, down 7.0 from the previous day with a decline of -0.92%; Log 2605 was 775.0, down 7.5 with a decline of -0.96%; Log 2607 was 789.5, down 6.5 with a decline of -0.82%. The basis of the main contract was -16.0, up 7.0 from the previous day [1]. - Spot prices of different types of logs in ports on January 20, 2026 remained unchanged compared to the previous day, including those in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port [1]. - Outer - market quotes on January 23 and January 16, 2026 for radiation pine and spruce remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Cost - On January 21, 2026, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.955, up 0.001 from the previous day with a 0% change. The import theoretical cost was 753.53 yuan, up 0.11 yuan from the previous day with a 0% change [1]. 3.3 Supply - Monthly supply: As of December 31, 2025, port throughput was 204.0 million cubic meters, up 14.8 million cubic meters from November 30, 2025 with a growth rate of 7.82%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea was 55.0, up 6.0 from the previous month with a growth rate of 12.24% [1]. - From January 12 - 18, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 from the previous week with a week - on - week increase of 67%. The total arrival volume was about 48.6 million cubic meters, an increase of 18.1 million cubic meters from the previous week with a week - on - week increase of 59% [2]. 3.4 Inventory - Weekly inventory of main ports: As of January 16, 2026, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 257.00 million cubic meters, down 12.0 million cubic meters from January 9, 2026 with a decline of - 4.46%. In Shandong, it was 192.00 million cubic meters, down 4.0 million cubic meters with a decline of - 2.04%. In Jiangsu, it was 41.08 million cubic meters, down 7.4 million cubic meters with a decline of - 15.18% [1][2]. 3.5 Demand - Weekly demand: As of January 16, 2026, the daily average log出库 volume in China was 6.16 million cubic meters, up 0.41 million cubic meters from the previous week with a growth rate of 7%. In Shandong, it was 2.79 million cubic meters, up 0.45 million cubic meters with a growth rate of 16%. In Jiangsu, it was 2.28 million cubic meters, down 0.07 million cubic meters with a decline of - 3% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - A-share market has large trading divergence, small and medium - cap indices have a supplementary decline, market sentiment cools down, and volatility converges. A - shares may enter a shock period. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] - Due to the cooling of the stock market and the influence of the stock - bond seesaw, the bond futures fluctuate and rise. The bond market trend may mainly depend on the policy strength and supply - demand situation in the first quarter, and it may remain in a shock pattern in the short term. The 10 - year bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.82% - 1.88%, and the T2603 contract may fluctuate in the range of 107.6 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies still maintain range operations, and pay attention to the positive spread of TS, T, and TF contracts and the strategy of widening the basis in the spot - futures strategy [2] - Affected by macro - geopolitical events, the weakening of assets such as the US dollar supports the strong shock of gold prices, but the domestic price is weaker than the overseas market due to the appreciation of the RMB. Hold long positions of gold above the 20 - day moving average; be cautious in participating in silver unilaterally and sell out - of - the - money options to earn volatility reduction benefits; platinum fluctuates strongly above the 20 - day moving average, and an option double - selling strategy can be adopted. Gold performs weaker than platinum and can sell out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - The A - share market has large trading divergence, small and medium - cap indices have a supplementary decline, and market sentiment cools down. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] Bond Futures - Due to the cooling of the stock market, bond futures fluctuate and rise. The bond market may remain in a shock pattern in the short term. The 10 - year bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.82% - 1.88%, and the T2603 contract may fluctuate in the range of 107.6 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies maintain range operations, and pay attention to the positive spread of TS, T, and TF contracts and the strategy of widening the basis in the spot - futures strategy [2] Precious Metals - Gold is supported by geopolitical events and maintains a strong shock, but the domestic price is weaker due to RMB appreciation. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average. For silver, be cautious in unilateral participation and sell out - of - the - money options. Platinum fluctuates strongly above the 20 - day moving average, with a fluctuation range of 587 - 640 yuan, and an option double - selling strategy can be used. Gold performs weaker than platinum and can sell out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan [2] Non - Ferrous Metals and Building Materials Sector Steel and Iron Ore - Raw material prices weaken, which may drag down the steel price center. The fluctuation range of rebar is 3000 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coil is 3150 - 3350. Iron ore prices are weak, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the steel - ore ratio and long positions in the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. Iron ore is in the off - season of supply, and ports are continuously accumulating inventory, with a wide - range shock in the range of 770 - 830 [2] Coal and Coke - The coal price in Shanxi origin rises more and falls less, and the Mongolian coal price falls from a high level. The coking coal futures price has over - anticipated. It is considered to be in a weak shock unilaterally, with a range of 1000 - 1150. Mainstream coke enterprises start to raise prices, while the port trade price falls. The coke futures price has over - anticipated, with a weak shock in the range of 1600 - 1750 [2] Other Non - Ferrous Metals - For aluminum oxide, the spot accumulates 7.9 tons weekly, and the futures price fluctuates and falls. The main contract runs in the range of 2600 - 2900, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices. For aluminum, the spot trading is cold, and there is a risk of emotional correction in the short term. The main contract runs in the range of 23000 - 25000, and it is recommended to lay out long positions after the correction [2] Energy and Chemical Sector Petrochemical Products - PX has a near - term weak and long - term strong supply - demand situation, with a short - term high - level shock in the range of 7000 - 7500, and a rolling low - buying strategy can be adopted. PTA has a seasonal inventory accumulation expectation, with a short - term shock in the range of 4900 - 5300, and it is recommended to buy low below 5000 and conduct a low - level positive spread for the 5 - 9 contract [2] Other Chemical Products - Ethanol has a seasonal inventory accumulation, and the near - term supply - demand expectation is weak. It is recommended to conduct a high - level reverse spread for the 5 - 9 contract and sell out - of - the - money call options. Pure benzene has improved supply - demand but is restricted by high inventory. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities for BZ2603 and shrink the EB - BZ spread at high levels [2] Agricultural Products Sector Grains and Oils - Bean meal lacks market drivers and runs weakly in a shock. Palm oil is boosted by exports and tries to break through the annual - line resistance, and may try to break through 8900 [2] Livestock and Poultry Products - The price of pork belly has difficulty rising, and the futures price of live pigs is under pressure, running in a shock range. The egg price continues to adjust and runs in a shock range [2] Other Agricultural Products - At the end of the sugar stocking period, the terminal demand is lower than expected, and the price runs weakly in a shock. The cotton price continues to adjust and runs at a high level in a shock. The apple futures price stops falling and stabilizes, and it is recommended to buy put options [2]

| 46 | 60.50% | 硅铁 (SF603) | 0.83% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5552 | 5598 | 3 30% | 190 | 硅罐 (SM603) | 5950 | 5760 | 61.80% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 169 | 5 43% | 3280 | 3111 | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | 67.40% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | -6 | 3270 | 3276 | -0.18% | 16.10% | 热卷(HC2605) | | | | | | 45.80% | 28 | 7129% | 847 | 790 | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF)：淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12605) | 2 33% | 1713 | 3d | 1 ...

息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。 圆锥及分析方法 井不代表广发暗 赌漏机构的立场,在任何情况下,提告内容仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不如成所就 产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1297 2026年1月21日 | 2026年1月21日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#场 | 394900 | 389800 | 5100 | 1.31% | | | SMM 1#锡开贴水 | 200 | 200 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 395400 | 390300 | 5100 | 1.31% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -108.01 | -68.00 | -40.01 | -58.84% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月21日 聚烯烃产业期现日报 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 品种 | 1月20日 | 1月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2605收盘价 | 6640 | ୧୧୨. | -51 | -0.76% | 元/吨 | | L2609收盘价 | 6664 | 6691 | -27 | -0.40% | | | PP2605收盘价 | 6461 | 6482 | -21 | -0.32% | | | PP2609 收盘价 | 6492 | 6515 | -23 | -0.35% | | | L59价差 | -24 | 0 | -24 | #DIV/0! | | | PP59价差 | -31 | -33 | 2 | 6.06% | | | LP05价差 | 179 | 209 | -30 | -14.35% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6330 | 6330 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华北LLDPE现货价格 | 6530 | 6570 | -40 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月21日 | 最新值 | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | -10.28 | -4.42 | 68.00% | 38.0096 | 4.75 | H期配分去 | 3.09 | 91.30% | 83.20% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 22.94 | 97.50% | 1.00 | 86,1096 | IM期现价差 | -25.52 | 28.00% | -61.95 | 75.00% | 次月-当月 | -2.00 | 2.20 | 89.30% | 55.60% | | | 零月-当月 | -36.60 | 44.2 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 FIR | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月21日 王法庭 Z0019938 | | | | | 田洞 | | | | | 1月20日 1月19日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | | 现价 江苏均价 8560 8540 20 0.23% | | | | | Y2605 8032 7996 36 0.45% 期价 | | | | | 星差 Y2605 528 544 -16 -2.94% | | | | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 05+520 05+530 -10 - | | | | | 27485 -1.82% 仓单 26985 -500 | | | | | 棕榈油 | | | | | 1月20日 1月19日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | | 现价 广东24度 8800 8700 100 1.15% | | | | | 期价 P2605 8748 8648 100 1.16% | | | | | 墓差 P2605 52 52 0 0.00% | | | | | 现货墓差报价 广东5月 0 ...

数据来源：Wind、Mystee、富宝资讯、广发期货发展研究中心。请仔细阅读报告尾端免费声明, 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可维的已公开资料，但广发期货时这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及 分析方法，并不代表厂发明货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内官仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或向价，投资者撰此 投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发明始特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归厂发明货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制 。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月21日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现信 | 前值 | 张跌 | 泉左 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3280 | 3290 | -10 | ...