1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by multiple factors including macro - policies, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical events. Different sectors show various trends. Some sectors are expected to be volatile, while others may have specific upward or downward trends based on their unique fundamentals [2][4][5] - In the commodities market, factors such as raw material supply, inventory levels, and downstream demand play crucial roles in determining price movements. For example, in the metals market, the supply of raw materials like nickel and copper, and the demand from industries such as stainless - steel production and electronics, affect prices [20][23][40] - In the financial market, stock index futures and bond futures are affected by domestic and international news, economic data, and policy orientations. For instance, A - share market sentiment is influenced by domestic economic development and overseas trade policies [7][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by approaching delivery, the price rose at the end of the session. The cost is supported by raw material news, but supply is abundant and demand is weak. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 14,200 - 15,000 [2][46] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the spot price is under pressure. The industry operating rate has slightly increased, with high inventory and weak demand [3][111] - **Coking Coal**: The price of coal in Shanxi has mostly risen, while Mongolian coal has fallen from its high. The market has over - anticipated the rise. It is expected to be bearish and volatile, with the reference range of 1,000 - 1,200 [4][64] - **Palm Oil**: It leads the rise in the oil and fat sector, with the potential to break through the 9,000 mark. The production in Malaysia has decreased seasonally, and exports have increased [5][87] - **Gold**: Driven by geopolitical conflicts, the safe - haven sentiment boosts the gold price. It is recommended to buy on dips above the 20 - day moving average and sell out - of - the - money call options [6][17] 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market had a weak rebound with reduced trading volume. The semiconductor sector was hot. It is expected to enter a volatile trend, and investors are advised to control risks and reduce long positions [7][8][9] - **Bond Futures**: The money market is relatively loose, and long - term bond futures have strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and not to chase high prices [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Precious Metals - The prices of precious metals were affected by Trump's tariff suspension. Gold closed higher, while silver, platinum, and palladium had different trends. In the future, gold is expected to be strongly volatile, silver may be volatile at a high level, and platinum and palladium will follow gold and be volatile with a narrowing range [14][17][18] 3.3 Commodity Futures 3.3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated and adjusted, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market speculation sentiment has eased, and the price may gradually return to fundamental pricing [19][23] - **Alumina**: The spot market is in surplus, and the price is expected to oscillate widely around the cash cost line, with the reference range of 2,600 - 2,900 [24][26] - **Aluminum**: The market is in a high - level volatile pattern. The macro and policy expectations are strong, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to be volatile at a high level, with the reference range of 23,000 - 25,000 [27][29] - **Zinc**: The price oscillated and adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports the price, but the demand is suppressed. It is expected to be volatile, and investors can hold long positions at low prices in the long - term [32][36] - **Tin**: The price fluctuated widely. The supply has increased, and the demand from the welding industry is under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and hold a long - term low - buying attitude [36][40] - **Nickel**: The impact of news has been digested, and the price oscillated and adjusted. It is expected to be widely volatile, with the reference range of 138,000 - 148,000 [40][43] - **Stainless Steel**: Similar to the daily selection, it is affected by delivery and cost - demand game, and is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term [43][46] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - side disturbance expectation has risen again, and the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and buy on dips in the medium - term [47][50] - **Polysilicon**: The spot price has fallen, and the futures price is weakly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated. It is expected to be volatile, and investors should pay attention to the implementation of production cuts [54][56] 3.3.2 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate within a range. The reference ranges for rebar and hot - rolled coil are 3,050 - 3,250 and 3,200 - 3,350 respectively [57][59] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in the off - season, and the port inventory is accumulating. The price is under pressure, and investors can short at around 800 [60][61] - **Coking Coal**: Similar to the daily selection, the spot is strong before the Spring Festival, but the market has over - anticipated the rise. It is expected to be bearish and volatile [62][64] - **Coke**: The mainstream coke enterprises have started to raise prices, but the market has over - anticipated. It is expected to be bearish and volatile, with the reference range of 1,600 - 1,800 [65][67] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved. It is expected to be widely volatile, with the reference range of 5,300 - 5,800 [68][69] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese ore supports the cost, and the supply - demand situation has improved. It is expected to be widely volatile, with the reference range of 5,600 - 6,000 [70][72] 3.3.3 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The U.S. soybean market is volatile, and the bottom of soybean meal is strongly supported. The domestic supply is loose, but the downside space is limited. It is expected to be volatile [73][75] - **Live Pigs**: The slaughter pressure has increased, and it is difficult for the white - strip pork price to rise. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [76][77] - **Corn**: There are both support and pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range. It is necessary to pay attention to the farmers' selling mentality and policy release [78][79] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar is oscillating, and the domestic sugar market is in the late stage of stockpiling. The sugar price is expected to be weakly volatile at a low level [80] - **Cotton**: The U.S. cotton is stable, and the domestic cotton price is adjusting. It is expected to continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to the support at around 14,400 - 14,500 [82][83] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable, and the market is moving normally. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [85] - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil leads the rise, with the potential to break through 9,000. Soybean oil may have a callback, and rapeseed oil is expected to be narrowly volatile [86][88] - **Jujubes**: The consumption drive is weak, and the futures price has rebounded at a low level. The market is expected to run at a low level [89][90] - **Apples**: Supported by low inventory, the price has stopped falling and stabilized. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory situation after the Spring Festival [91][92] 3.3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The short - term supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term and may be tight in the second quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips [93] - **PTA**: There is a seasonal inventory accumulation expectation, and the driving force before the Spring Festival is limited. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate within the range of 4,900 - 5,300 [94][95] - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate. The processing fee can be shorted at a high level [97] - **Bottle - grade PET**: Multiple devices are under maintenance, and the factory is reducing inventory. The price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [98][99] - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a seasonal inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short the 5 - 9 spread and sell call options [100][101] - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has improved, but the high inventory restricts the driving force. It is recommended to short the BZ03 contract and narrow the EB - BZ spread [102][103] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is temporarily tight, but the high valuation limits the rebound space. It is recommended to short the EB03 contract and narrow the processing fee [104][106] - **LLDPE**: The upstream has reduced the price to sell, and the transaction has improved. It is recommended to wait and see [107] - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is weakly volatile. It is recommended to hold the PDH profit expansion position [107][108] - **Methanol**: The basis has strengthened, and the price is narrowly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [108] - **Caustic Soda**: Similar to the daily selection, the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is under pressure [109][111] - **PVC**: The demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, but the downside space is limited [112][113] - **Urea**: The inventory has fallen below one million tons, and the demand has recovered. The price is expected to be widely volatile, and the main contract reference range is 1,740 - 1,790 [114][115] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and short positions can be held [116][119] - **Glass**: The supply and demand are both weak in the off - season. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and short positions can be held [116][120] - **Natural Rubber**: Thailand is entering the production - reduction period, and the raw material price has rebounded. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500. It is recommended to wait and see [120][122] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is strong, and the BR is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread expansion opportunity between BR2603 and NR2603 [124][125][126]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - A-share market has large trading divergence, small and medium-sized indexes have a supplementary decline, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The A-share market may enter a period of oscillation. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re-entry opportunities [2]. - The bond market may mainly depend on the policy strength and supply-demand situation in the first quarter. In the short term, it may still be in an oscillatory pattern. Unilateral strategies should maintain range operations, and attention should be paid to positive spreads of TS, T, and TF contracts and strategies to widen basis spreads in the spot-futures strategy [2]. - Affected by macro geopolitical events, the weakening of assets such as the US dollar supports the strong oscillation of gold prices. Gold above the 20-day moving average should continue to hold long positions; for silver, participate cautiously on a single side and sell out-of-the-money options to earn volatility reduction benefits; for platinum, use an option double-selling strategy; for palladium, sell out-of-the-money call options above 510 yuan [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - The A-share market has large trading divergence, small and medium-sized indexes have a supplementary decline, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The A-share market may enter a period of oscillation. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re-entry opportunities [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market may mainly depend on the policy strength and supply-demand situation in the first quarter. In the short term, it may still be in an oscillatory pattern. The 10-year bond interest rate may oscillate in the range of 1.82%-1.88%, and the T2603 contract may fluctuate in the range of 107.6-108.3. Unilateral strategies should maintain range operations, and attention should be paid to positive spreads of TS, T, and TF contracts and strategies to widen basis spreads in the spot-futures strategy [2]. Precious Metals - Affected by macro geopolitical events, the weakening of assets such as the US dollar supports the strong oscillation of gold prices. Gold above the 20-day moving average should continue to hold long positions; for silver, participate cautiously on a single side and sell out-of-the-money options to earn volatility reduction benefits; for platinum, use an option double-selling strategy; for palladium, sell out-of-the-money call options above 510 yuan [2]. Commodity Sector Metals - For steel, the weakening of raw material prices may drag down the steel price center. The fluctuation range of rebar is 3000-3200, and that of hot-rolled coil is 3150-3350. Long the steel-iron ore ratio and long the hot-rolled coil-rebar spread [2]. - For iron ore, the supply is in the off-season, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. It will have a wide-range oscillation in the range of 770-830 [2]. - For coke and coking coal, the coking coal price in Shanxi has more increases than decreases, and the Mongolian coal price has fallen from a high level. The coke price of mainstream coking enterprises starts to increase, and the port trade price has fallen. Both are expected to oscillate weakly, with the coking coal in the range of 1000-1150 and coke in the range of 1600-1750 [2]. - For non-ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. For example, copper should wait for adjustment to complete and then enter long positions; aluminum should wait for a callback to layout long positions; zinc should focus on the support around 23800 and take a long position at low prices in the long term; tin should participate cautiously in the short term and try a long position at low prices after the sentiment stabilizes [2]. Energy and Chemicals - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates weakly, with the main contract in the range of 8200-9200. For polysilicon, the average spot price has a small increase, and the futures price oscillates strongly. For lithium carbonate, the supply-side disturbance expectation rises again, and the price runs strongly. In the short term, wait and see, and in the medium term, go long at low prices [2]. - For PX, the supply-demand situation is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. It will oscillate at a high level in the short term, with the range of 7000-7500. For PTA, it will oscillate in the range of 4900-5300 in the short term, and go long below 5000. For short fiber, the supply-demand expectation is weak, and it follows the raw material fluctuation. For bottle chips, multiple bottle chip devices are under maintenance, and the factory inventory continues to decrease, which supports the processing fee [2]. - For ethanol, there is seasonal inventory accumulation, and the near-term supply-demand expectation is weak. The price of MEG in January is still under pressure. For pure benzene, the supply-demand situation has improved, but the high inventory suppresses the driving force. For styrene, the supply-demand is temporarily tight, but the rebound space is limited under high valuation [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybean meal, the market lacks driving force, and it oscillates weakly. For live pigs, it is difficult for the white-striped pork price to follow the increase, and the futures price is under pressure. For corn, there are both support and pressure, and it runs in a high-level range. For palm oil, boosted by exports, it tries to break through the annual resistance line [2]. - For sugar, the end of the stocking period is approaching, and the terminal demand is lower than expected. For cotton, the spot performance is strong, and the price continues to adjust. For eggs, the market performance varies, and the price continues to adjust. For apples, the trading has improved, and the futures price has stopped falling and stabilized. For jujubes, the demand is weak, and the futures price has weakened [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the spot market, due to low inventory in Jiangsu, there is a shortage of some specifications of logs and price increases. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expectation of a decrease in later shipments. However, demand remains weak, limiting the upside potential. Recently, affected by the sentiment of the black sector, the log futures have increased positions and declined, and the current price has fallen below the cost line. In the short term, the price is expected to have certain support [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of different log contracts on January 20, 2026: Log 2601 was 770.0, unchanged from the previous day; Log 2603 was 756.0, down 7.0 from the previous day with a decline of -0.92%; Log 2605 was 775.0, down 7.5 with a decline of -0.96%; Log 2607 was 789.5, down 6.5 with a decline of -0.82%. The basis of the main contract was -16.0, up 7.0 from the previous day [1]. - Spot prices of different types of logs in ports on January 20, 2026 remained unchanged compared to the previous day, including those in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port [1]. - Outer - market quotes on January 23 and January 16, 2026 for radiation pine and spruce remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Cost - On January 21, 2026, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.955, up 0.001 from the previous day with a 0% change. The import theoretical cost was 753.53 yuan, up 0.11 yuan from the previous day with a 0% change [1]. 3.3 Supply - Monthly supply: As of December 31, 2025, port throughput was 204.0 million cubic meters, up 14.8 million cubic meters from November 30, 2025 with a growth rate of 7.82%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea was 55.0, up 6.0 from the previous month with a growth rate of 12.24% [1]. - From January 12 - 18, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 from the previous week with a week - on - week increase of 67%. The total arrival volume was about 48.6 million cubic meters, an increase of 18.1 million cubic meters from the previous week with a week - on - week increase of 59% [2]. 3.4 Inventory - Weekly inventory of main ports: As of January 16, 2026, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 257.00 million cubic meters, down 12.0 million cubic meters from January 9, 2026 with a decline of - 4.46%. In Shandong, it was 192.00 million cubic meters, down 4.0 million cubic meters with a decline of - 2.04%. In Jiangsu, it was 41.08 million cubic meters, down 7.4 million cubic meters with a decline of - 15.18% [1][2]. 3.5 Demand - Weekly demand: As of January 16, 2026, the daily average log出库 volume in China was 6.16 million cubic meters, up 0.41 million cubic meters from the previous week with a growth rate of 7%. In Shandong, it was 2.79 million cubic meters, up 0.45 million cubic meters with a growth rate of 16%. In Jiangsu, it was 2.28 million cubic meters, down 0.07 million cubic meters with a decline of - 3% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - A-share market has large trading divergence, small and medium - cap indices have a supplementary decline, market sentiment cools down, and volatility converges. A - shares may enter a shock period. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] - Due to the cooling of the stock market and the influence of the stock - bond seesaw, the bond futures fluctuate and rise. The bond market trend may mainly depend on the policy strength and supply - demand situation in the first quarter, and it may remain in a shock pattern in the short term. The 10 - year bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.82% - 1.88%, and the T2603 contract may fluctuate in the range of 107.6 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies still maintain range operations, and pay attention to the positive spread of TS, T, and TF contracts and the strategy of widening the basis in the spot - futures strategy [2] - Affected by macro - geopolitical events, the weakening of assets such as the US dollar supports the strong shock of gold prices, but the domestic price is weaker than the overseas market due to the appreciation of the RMB. Hold long positions of gold above the 20 - day moving average; be cautious in participating in silver unilaterally and sell out - of - the - money options to earn volatility reduction benefits; platinum fluctuates strongly above the 20 - day moving average, and an option double - selling strategy can be adopted. Gold performs weaker than platinum and can sell out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - The A - share market has large trading divergence, small and medium - cap indices have a supplementary decline, and market sentiment cools down. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] Bond Futures - Due to the cooling of the stock market, bond futures fluctuate and rise. The bond market may remain in a shock pattern in the short term. The 10 - year bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.82% - 1.88%, and the T2603 contract may fluctuate in the range of 107.6 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies maintain range operations, and pay attention to the positive spread of TS, T, and TF contracts and the strategy of widening the basis in the spot - futures strategy [2] Precious Metals - Gold is supported by geopolitical events and maintains a strong shock, but the domestic price is weaker due to RMB appreciation. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average. For silver, be cautious in unilateral participation and sell out - of - the - money options. Platinum fluctuates strongly above the 20 - day moving average, with a fluctuation range of 587 - 640 yuan, and an option double - selling strategy can be used. Gold performs weaker than platinum and can sell out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan [2] Non - Ferrous Metals and Building Materials Sector Steel and Iron Ore - Raw material prices weaken, which may drag down the steel price center. The fluctuation range of rebar is 3000 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coil is 3150 - 3350. Iron ore prices are weak, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the steel - ore ratio and long positions in the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. Iron ore is in the off - season of supply, and ports are continuously accumulating inventory, with a wide - range shock in the range of 770 - 830 [2] Coal and Coke - The coal price in Shanxi origin rises more and falls less, and the Mongolian coal price falls from a high level. The coking coal futures price has over - anticipated. It is considered to be in a weak shock unilaterally, with a range of 1000 - 1150. Mainstream coke enterprises start to raise prices, while the port trade price falls. The coke futures price has over - anticipated, with a weak shock in the range of 1600 - 1750 [2] Other Non - Ferrous Metals - For aluminum oxide, the spot accumulates 7.9 tons weekly, and the futures price fluctuates and falls. The main contract runs in the range of 2600 - 2900, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices. For aluminum, the spot trading is cold, and there is a risk of emotional correction in the short term. The main contract runs in the range of 23000 - 25000, and it is recommended to lay out long positions after the correction [2] Energy and Chemical Sector Petrochemical Products - PX has a near - term weak and long - term strong supply - demand situation, with a short - term high - level shock in the range of 7000 - 7500, and a rolling low - buying strategy can be adopted. PTA has a seasonal inventory accumulation expectation, with a short - term shock in the range of 4900 - 5300, and it is recommended to buy low below 5000 and conduct a low - level positive spread for the 5 - 9 contract [2] Other Chemical Products - Ethanol has a seasonal inventory accumulation, and the near - term supply - demand expectation is weak. It is recommended to conduct a high - level reverse spread for the 5 - 9 contract and sell out - of - the - money call options. Pure benzene has improved supply - demand but is restricted by high inventory. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities for BZ2603 and shrink the EB - BZ spread at high levels [2] Agricultural Products Sector Grains and Oils - Bean meal lacks market drivers and runs weakly in a shock. Palm oil is boosted by exports and tries to break through the annual - line resistance, and may try to break through 8900 [2] Livestock and Poultry Products - The price of pork belly has difficulty rising, and the futures price of live pigs is under pressure, running in a shock range. The egg price continues to adjust and runs in a shock range [2] Other Agricultural Products - At the end of the sugar stocking period, the terminal demand is lower than expected, and the price runs weakly in a shock. The cotton price continues to adjust and runs at a high level in a shock. The apple futures price stops falling and stabilizes, and it is recommended to buy put options [2]

Report Title - Full Variety Spread Daily Report [4] Report Date - January 21, 2026 [3] Report Analyst - Ye Qianning, Z0016628 [7] Key Points by Industry Ferrous Metals - Silicon iron (SF603) spot price is 5552, futures price is 5598, with a basis of 46 and a basis rate of 0.83% [1] - Silicon manganese (SM603) spot price is 5950, futures price is 5760, with a basis of 190 and a basis rate of 3.30% [1] - Rebar (RB2605) spot price is 3280, futures price is 3111, with a basis of 169 and a basis rate of 5.43% [1] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2605) spot price is 3276, futures price is 3270, with a basis of - 6 and a basis rate of - 0.18% [1] - Iron ore (I2605) spot price is 847, futures price is 790, with a basis of 57 and a basis rate of 7.21% [1] - Coke (J2605) spot price is 1713, futures price is 1674, with a basis of 39 and a basis rate of 2.33% [1] - Coking coal (JM2605) spot price is 1156, futures price is 1124, with a basis of 32 and a basis rate of 2.85% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2603) spot price is 101230, futures price is 100725, with a basis of 505 and a basis rate of 0.50% [1] - Aluminum (AL2603) spot price is 23950, futures price is 23680, with a basis of 270 and a basis rate of 1.13% [1] - Zinc (ZN2603) spot price is 24410, futures price is 24270, with a basis of 140 and a basis rate of 0.57% [1] - Tin (SN2602) spot price is 399000, futures price is 394900, with a basis of 4100 and a basis rate of 1.03% [1] - Nickel (NI2603) spot price is 142800, futures price is 141360, with a basis of 1440 and a basis rate of 1.02% [1] - Stainless steel (SS2603) spot price is 14470, futures price is 14345, with a basis of 125 and a basis rate of 0.87% [1] - Lithium carbonate (LC2605) spot price is 160500, futures price is 152500, with a basis of 8000 and a basis rate of 5.25% [1] - Industrial silicon (SI2605) spot price is 9250, futures price is 8745, with a basis of 505 and a basis rate of 5.77% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2604) spot price is 1060.2, futures price is 1056.0, with a basis of 4.2 and a basis rate of 0.40% [1] - Silver (AG2604) spot price is 23149.0, futures price is 23062.0, with a basis of 87.0 and a basis rate of 0.38% [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2605) spot price is 3340, futures price is 3070, with a basis of 270 and a basis rate of 8.80% [1] - Soybean oil (Y2605) spot price is 8490, futures price is 8032, with a basis of 458 and a basis rate of 5.70% [1] - Palm oil (P2605) spot price is 8748, futures price is 8730, with a basis of 18 and a basis rate of 0.21% [1] - Rapeseed meal (RM605) spot price is 2420, futures price is 2229, with a basis of 191 and a basis rate of 8.57% [1] - Rapeseed oil (OI2605) spot price is 9810, futures price is 8948, with a basis of 862 and a basis rate of 9.63% [1] - Corn (C2603) spot price is 2355, futures price is 2280, with a basis of 75 and a basis rate of 3.29% [1] - Corn starch (CS2603) spot price is 2630, futures price is 2550, with a basis of 80 and a basis rate of 3.14% [1] - Live pigs (H2603) spot price is 13350, futures price is 11550, with a basis of 1800 and a basis rate of 19.58% [1] - Eggs (JD2603) spot price is 3510, futures price is 3027, with a basis of 483 and a basis rate of 15.96% [1] - Cotton (CF605) spot price is 15600, futures price is 14525, with a basis of 1075 and a basis rate of 7.40% [1] - Sugar (SR605) spot price is 5370, futures price is 5183, with a basis of 187 and a basis rate of 3.61% [1] - Apples (AP605) spot price is 9400, futures price is 9371, with a basis of 29 and a basis rate of 0.31% [1] - Red dates (CJ605) spot price is 8700, futures price is 8000, with a basis of 700 and a basis rate of 8.05% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Paraxylene (PX603) spot price is 7232, futures price is 7124, with a basis of 108 and a basis rate of 1.49% [1] - PTA (TA605) spot price is 5144, futures price is 5060, with a basis of 84 and a basis rate of 1.63% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG2605) spot price is 3674, futures price is 3560, with a basis of 114 and a basis rate of 3.10% [1] - Short - fiber (PF603) spot price is 6494, futures price is 6440, with a basis of 54 and a basis rate of 0.83% [1] - Styrene (EB2602) spot price is 7370, futures price is 7203, with a basis of 167 and a basis rate of 2.32% [1] - Methanol (MA605) spot price is 2206, futures price is 2198, with a basis of 8 and a basis rate of 0.36% [1] - Urea (UR605) spot price is 1775, futures price is 1750, with a basis of 25 and a basis rate of 1.41% [1] - LLDPE (L2605) spot price is 6640, futures price is 6625, with a basis of 15 and a basis rate of 0.23% [1] - PP (PP2605) spot price is 6575, futures price is 6461, with a basis of 114 and a basis rate of 1.76% [1] - PVC (V2605) spot price is 4807, futures price is 4560, with a basis of 247 and a basis rate of 5.14% [1] - Caustic soda (SH603) spot price is 1960, futures price is 1953, with a basis of 7 and a basis rate of 0.35% [1] - LPG (PG2603) spot price is 4948, futures price is 4054, with a basis of 894 and a basis rate of 22.05% [1] - Asphalt (BU2603) spot price is 3139, futures price is 3070, with a basis of 69 and a basis rate of 2.20% [1] - Butadiene rubber (BR2603) spot price is 11800, futures price is 11585, with a basis of 215 and a basis rate of 1.82% [1] - Float glass (FG605) spot price is 1177, futures price is 1137, with a basis of 40 and a basis rate of 3.52% [1] - Soda ash (SA605) spot price is 15620, futures price is 15300, with a basis of 320 and a basis rate of 2.09% [1] - Natural rubber (RU2605) spot price is 15620, futures price is 15300, with a basis of 320 and a basis rate of 2.09% [1] Stock Index Futures - IF2603.CFF spot price is 4718.9, futures price is 4708.6, with a basis of - 10.3 and a basis rate of - 0.22% [1] - IH2603.CFE spot price is 3075.4, futures price is 3070.6, with a basis of 4.8 and a basis rate of 0.15% [1] - IC2603.CFE spot price is 8248.8, futures price is 8247.8, with a basis of 1.0 and a basis rate of 0.01% [1] - IM2603.CFE spot price is 8182.8, futures price is 8120.8, with a basis of 62 and a basis rate of 0.76% [1] Treasury Bond Futures - 2 - year Treasury bond (TS2603) spot price is 102.44, futures price is 100.11, with a basis of 2.33 and a basis rate of 2.33% [1] - 5 - year Treasury bond (TF2603) spot price is 105.87, futures price is 99.63, with a basis of 6.24 and a basis rate of 6.24% [1] - 10 - year Treasury bond (T2603) spot price is 108.17, futures price is 100.48, with a basis of 7.69 and a basis rate of 7.69% [1] - 30 - year Treasury bond (TL2603) spot price is 125.96, futures price is 111.41, with a basis of 14.55 and a basis rate of 14.55% [1]

息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。 圆锥及分析方法 井不代表广发暗 赌漏机构的立场,在任何情况下,提告内容仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不如成所就 产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1297 2026年1月21日 | 2026年1月21日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#场 | 394900 | 389800 | 5100 | 1.31% | | | SMM 1#锡开贴水 | 200 | 200 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 395400 | 390300 | 5100 | 1.31% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -108.01 | -68.00 | -40.01 | -58.84% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - The upstream of LLDPE and PP continues to reduce prices, with poor order - taking. The supply of LLDPE is expected to increase marginally, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. PP has a weak supply - demand situation, but the inventory is expected to turn to a decline in January, and the balance has improved. However, the weighted profit has been repaired, and the far - month disk has certain characteristics. Attention should be paid to the implementation of later maintenance [2]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level, with the basis strengthening slightly. The inland supply remains high, and traditional demand is weak, with short - term pressure. Although the port inventory is slightly depleted, the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound. The key variables are the reduction rhythm of imported methanol and the fading of geopolitical risk premium [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The marginal supply - demand of pure benzene improves slightly, but the port inventory level is still high, and its own driving force is limited. Styrene is boosted by exports and device accidents, and its price is strong, driving up the price of pure benzene. The spread between styrene and pure benzene has widened significantly. For strategies, consider short - selling opportunities in BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread at high levels. For styrene, although the short - term supply - demand is tight, there is an inventory accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. Consider short - selling opportunities in EB03 and narrowing the EB processing fee at high levels [5]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The spot price has a slight decline, the supply is at a high level, the demand has not improved significantly, and the factory inventory is hovering at a high level. Glass futures are also expected to continue the weak trend. The supply and demand are both weak, the inventory is still relatively high year - on - year, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is shrinking in the off - season [6]. Urea Industry - Urea futures fluctuated and closed up on January 20th, and the spot price was slightly loose. The supply is at a high level, with the daily output rising to 200,000 tons. The demand side has some rigid needs, but the overall receiving enthusiasm is low. It is expected that the urea price will be in a weak shock in the short term [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda futures fell weakly, and the spot price continued to decline. The supply - demand imbalance remains unchanged, with high inventory and weak demand, and the price will continue to be under pressure. PVC futures fluctuated and closed down, with the spot price remaining stable. The supply is high, the domestic demand is weakening, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is controversial. It is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, but the downward space is limited [8]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded. The geopolitical risk has eased, but the instability remains. The short - term oil price is supported by the shutdown of the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan, but the supply - demand expectation is still weak, and the upward space is limited. Brent crude oil may fluctuate between $60 - 66 per barrel in the short term [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - The overseas raw material prices of natural rubber continue to fall, weakening the bottom support. The demand of some semi - steel tire enterprises with a large proportion of European exports is relatively good, but the domestic sales are slow. The inventory in China continues to accumulate. Considering that Thailand is about to enter the production - reducing period, the raw material price decline is limited, and the rubber price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [11]. LPG Industry - LPG futures prices declined. The inventory of refineries and ports decreased, the upstream refinery operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased. Overall, no clear view on the future trend is given in the report [12]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, and the downward space is limited in the second quarter. For PTA, the supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it will follow the raw material fluctuations before the Spring Festival. For MEG, there is a large - scale inventory accumulation expectation in January - February, and the price is under pressure. For short - fiber, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and it will follow the raw material fluctuations in the short term. For polyester bottle - chips, the supply is expected to decline, and it will follow the cost fluctuations [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 all decreased on January 20, 2026, compared with January 19. The prices of some spot products also changed, such as the华东LDPE price decreased by 250 yuan/ton, and the 华东PP注塑 price decreased by 70 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.07 percentage points, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased slightly. The PE enterprise inventory and social inventory both decreased. The PP device operating rate increased slightly, while the PP powder device operating rate and downstream weighted operating rate decreased [2]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 decreased on January 20. The spot prices of some regions also changed, such as the 内蒙北线现货 price decreased by 28 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased slightly, while the port inventory and social inventory decreased. The upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed to different degrees, with the downstream - outer - purchased MTO device operating rate decreasing significantly by 8.85 percentage points [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased on January 20. The prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products also had different changes, such as the 纯苯华东现货 price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 苯乙烯华东现货 price decreased by 60 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased. The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain changed, such as the Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points, and the 苯酚 operating rate increased by 4.0 percentage points [5]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures decreased on January 20. The spot prices of glass and soda ash in different regions remained stable [6]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The soda ash operating rate and weekly output increased, while the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume increased slightly. The glass factory inventory decreased, while the soda ash factory inventory increased [6]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The urea futures fluctuated and closed up on January 20, and the spot price was slightly loose [7]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The domestic urea daily output increased, and the weekly output also increased. The factory inventory and port inventory decreased, and the production enterprise order days decreased [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of caustic soda futures and some spot products decreased on January 20, while the PVC spot price remained stable, and the futures prices had different changes [8]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates changed slightly. The caustic soda inventory in some regions decreased, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased, but the total social inventory increased [8]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent crude oil price increased by 0.98 dollars/barrel on January 20, while the SC crude oil price decreased by 4.10 yuan/barrel. The prices of some refined oil products also changed, such as the ICE Gasoil price increased by 14.25 dollars/ton [9]. - **Market Factors**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has eased, but the instability remains. The shutdown of the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan has supported the short - term oil price, but the supply - demand expectation is still weak [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of natural rubber - related products such as 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF) and 泰标混合胶 decreased on January 20 [11]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The natural rubber production in some countries decreased in November, while the production in India increased. The operating rates of automobile tires in China increased, and the domestic tire output and export volume increased. The inventory of natural rubber in China continued to accumulate [11]. LPG Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of LPG futures contracts such as PG2603, PG2604, and PG2605 decreased on January 20. The spot prices of LPG in the South China region also decreased [12]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory decreased. The upstream refinery operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased [12]. Polyester Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased on January 20. The prices of polyester products and related raw materials had different changes, such as the 聚酯切片 price increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the MEG华东现货 price decreased by 36 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: The operating rates of some industries in the polyester industry chain decreased, such as the Asian PX operating rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the polyester comprehensive operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points. The MEG port inventory decreased slightly, but the arrival expectation increased [13].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月21日 | 最新值 | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | -10.28 | -4.42 | 68.00% | 38.0096 | 4.75 | H期配分去 | 3.09 | 91.30% | 83.20% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 22.94 | 97.50% | 1.00 | 86,1096 | IM期现价差 | -25.52 | 28.00% | -61.95 | 75.00% | 次月-当月 | -2.00 | 2.20 | 89.30% | 55.60% | | | 零月-当月 | -36.60 | 44.2 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 FIR | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月21日 王法庭 Z0019938 | | | | | 田洞 | | | | | 1月20日 1月19日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | | 现价 江苏均价 8560 8540 20 0.23% | | | | | Y2605 8032 7996 36 0.45% 期价 | | | | | 星差 Y2605 528 544 -16 -2.94% | | | | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 05+520 05+530 -10 - | | | | | 27485 -1.82% 仓单 26985 -500 | | | | | 棕榈油 | | | | | 1月20日 1月19日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | | 现价 广东24度 8800 8700 100 1.15% | | | | | 期价 P2605 8748 8648 100 1.16% | | | | | 墓差 P2605 52 52 0 0.00% | | | | | 现货墓差报价 广东5月 0 ...

Report 1: Steel Industry 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The steel industry is facing a situation of both weak supply and demand. The cost decline may lead to a downward shift in the steel price center. It is recommended to exit the long position of the steel - ore ratio at a high level and continue to hold the long position of the hot - rolled coil and rebar spread. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have declined. For example, rebar spot in the East China region dropped from 3290 yuan/ton to 3280 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while some production costs and profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed. For instance, the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 11 yuan/ton, and the profit of North China hot - rolled coil increased by 6 [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.5 tons (-0.7%), and the output of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.6 tons (0.1%). The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.9 tons (-0.6%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.7 (-8.4%), while the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 29.3 tons (3.7%) [1]. Report 2: Iron Ore Industry 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The iron ore market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. The ore price is expected to be weak, but the pre - festival restocking still supports the price. The interval strategy remains unchanged, with the reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore Related Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the basis of some varieties changed. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder dropped from 861.1 yuan/ton to 855.6 yuan/ton [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume and global shipment volume decreased, while the national monthly import volume increased. The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 260.7 tons (-8.9%), and the global shipment volume decreased by 251.0 tons (-7.9%) [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, 45 - port daily average desilting volume, national monthly pig iron and crude steel output all decreased. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons (-0.6%) [4]. Inventory Change - The 45 - port inventory and 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory increased, and the number of available days of 64 steel mills' inventory also increased [4]. Report 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - **Coke**: After the fourth round of price cuts, some coke enterprises resist price cuts and limit production to maintain prices. The market may be loose after the festival, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the reference range of 1600 - 1750 [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot is strong before the Spring Festival due to restocking demand, but the market is expected to be loose after the festival, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the reference range of 1000 - 1150 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures prices declined, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed. For example, the coke 05 contract dropped from 1721 to 1674 (-2.8%) [6]. Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly, and the demand side (pig iron output) also decreased. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons (-0.2%) [6]. Inventory Change - Coke inventory increased slightly overall, with ports and steel mills accumulating inventory and coking plants reducing inventory. Coking coal inventory also increased slightly overall [6]. Report 4: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - **Ferrosilicon**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the reference range of 5300 - 5800 [7]. - **Ferromanganese**: It is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. The manganese ore supports the price, and it is expected to fluctuate widely, with the reference range of 5600 - 6000 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - The ferrosilicon主力合约 price increased slightly, while the ferromanganese主力合约 price decreased. Some spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese also changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of some ferrosilicon regions decreased slightly, and the production profit changed. The manganese ore price decreased slightly [7]. Supply and Demand - Ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and the demand also decreased. Ferromanganese supply decreased slightly, and the demand also decreased [7]. Inventory Change - Ferrosilicon inventory decreased slightly, and ferromanganese inventory also decreased slightly [7].