Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly influenced by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with the situation in the Middle East being a key factor affecting various sectors. The conflict has led to disruptions in the supply chain, especially in the energy and shipping industries, and has also impacted market sentiment and risk preferences [89][90][125]. - The macro - economic environment is complex. The Chinese government's policies announced during the Two Sessions have certain impacts on the domestic market, and the market is also affected by factors such as the expected Fed interest rate cuts and employment data in the US [7][11]. - Different industries have different trends. Some industries are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by cost factors and seasonal factors. For example, in the metal industry, some metals face supply - demand mismatches in the short term but have good long - term fundamentals; in the energy and chemical industry, the prices of many products are affected by the rise in oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts [2][16][93]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: In the short term, there is a supply - demand mismatch, with high production in March, inventory accumulation, and limited upward price drivers. In the long term, the fundamentals are good, and the price center is expected to rise. Attention should be paid to the CL premium and downstream resumption of work [2][16]. - **Styrene**: The supply increment in March is limited, and the supply - demand is expected to have a slight de - stocking. Driven by the rise in oil prices and export orders, the short - term trend is strong. Attention should be paid to the downstream start - up and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [3][105]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand will also improve marginally. The price may fluctuate greatly in the short term, and there is pressure when the price rebounds to the FOB export cost [4][62]. - **Oils and Fats**: Driven by the rise in crude oil, vegetable oils are oscillating upwards. Palm oil and soybean oil have different trends, and the market is affected by factors such as production, exports, and demand [5][80]. Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The macro situation boosts market sentiment, and the stock index oscillates and stabilizes. The market is affected by domestic policies and international geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to wait and see and keep a low position [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts and central bank policies, the prices of precious metals are under pressure. In the long term, the demand for precious metals is expected to increase, but in the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and take protective measures for long positions [9][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The short - term supply - demand mismatch, high inventory, and weak upward drivers. The long - term fundamentals are good, and the price center is expected to rise. Attention should be paid to downstream resumption and overseas macro - drivers [13][16]. - **Alumina**: The spot price may rebound slightly, and the inventory is in a state of slight de - stocking. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices [16][18]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the supply crisis in the Middle East, the price volatility increases. The short - term market is cautious, and the long - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to rise [18][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The social inventory is decreasing, and the short - term market oscillates in a range. The key lies in the downstream resumption and order recovery [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak in the short term. The fundamentals are good, but the price may be suppressed if the downstream production resumption is not as expected [24][27]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price oscillates widely. The long - term bullish logic exists, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [27][31]. - **Nickel**: The macro uncertainty is high, and the price oscillates in a range. The supply and demand are in a state of weak demand and high inventory [31][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The policy expectations are gradually released, and the supply - demand is slowly recovering. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [34][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by macro and supply uncertainties, the price oscillates widely. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [38][41]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is falling, and the futures price rises and then falls. The supply pressure is high, but the demand is expected to recover in March. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates. The supply and demand are expected to be strong in March, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production and sales [44][46]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The price oscillates, and the demand after the festival needs to be verified. The supply increment in March is limited, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally. Attention should be paid to the export volume and the height of the apparent demand [47][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply pressure is prominent, and the demand recovery is uncertain. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [50][51]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price oscillates. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The price is affected by multiple factors and is expected to oscillate [52][55]. - **Coke**: The steel mills propose to lower the price, and the futures price oscillates. The supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate [56][59]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price may fluctuate greatly in the short term. Attention should be paid to exports [60][62]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price of manganese ore is rising, and the supply of manganese silicon is increasing slightly. The price is affected by the cost of manganese ore and the supply - demand of manganese silicon, and it is recommended to try short - term long positions or 5 - 9 positive spreads [63][65]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic and foreign markets oscillate at a high level, and the domestic soybean meal basis falls. The supply is relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [66][68]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure is high, and the price oscillates weakly. The market focuses on secondary fattening and frozen product storage [69][70]. - **Corn**: Supported by the replenishment of the middle and lower reaches, the price oscillates strongly. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm and policy grain sources [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic market oscillates at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [74]. - **Cotton**: The price first rises and then falls, and the adjustment range is limited. The long - term center of gravity is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to downstream orders and weather [76][77]. - **Eggs**: The market speed is slow, and the price oscillates at a low level. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is in the off - season [79]. - **Oils and Fats**: Driven by crude oil, the price oscillates upwards. Different oils have different trends, and attention should be paid to production, exports, and demand [80][83]. - **Jujubes**: The demand is weak, and the price oscillates in a range. The market is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the inventory removal [84][85]. - **Apples**: The inventory removal progress is good, and the price continues to rise. The market is affected by production, quality, and inventory [86][88]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the price rises. The key is the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the safety of energy facilities in the Middle East. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and set stop - loss and take - profit [89][91]. - **PX**: The supply - demand is expected to improve, and the price is strong in the short term. It is recommended to take long positions with caution and pay attention to the oil price [92][93]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand drive is limited, and the price is driven by the cost. It is recommended to take long positions with caution and pay attention to the oil price [94][96]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost transmission [97]. - **Bottle Chip**: The raw material is expected to be strong, and the supply is expected to increase. The processing fee may fall. It is recommended to take long positions and pay attention to the processing fee [98][100]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand is expected to improve in March, and the cost support is enhanced. It is recommended to take a positive spread between EG5 and EG9 [101]. - **Pure Benzene**: Driven by the cost, the price is strong. It is recommended to take long positions with caution and pay attention to the oil price [102][103]. - **Styrene**: Driven by the cost, the price is strong. It is recommended to take long positions with caution and pay attention to the downstream start - up and the Strait of Hormuz [3][105]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream sells at a loss, and the market transaction weakens. The supply may shrink in the future, and the demand is warming up. It is recommended to wait and see [106]. - **PP**: The valuation is low, and the price rises strongly. The supply may decrease, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to take profits on the PL spread [107]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical risks, the price oscillates at a high level. The supply is affected by imports, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances, the price hits the daily limit. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. It is necessary to be vigilant against the price decline when the situation eases [109][110]. - **PVC**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances, the price fluctuates emotionally. The supply is high, and the demand is normal. The price is pushed up by cost concerns [111][112]. - **Urea**: The demand improves marginally, and the price consolidates at a high level. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and take long positions [113]. - **Soda Ash**: The macro situation boosts the sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [114][117]. - **Glass**: The downstream resumption is less than expected, and the inventory increases. It is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: Affected by the overseas geopolitical situation, the price oscillates in the short term. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by exports [118][122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The fundamental support is limited, but the geopolitical conflict drives the BR to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [122][124]. Container Shipping to Europe - The shipping price increases, and it is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation of the price increase in the off - season. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and shipping capacity. It is recommended to hold positive spreads [124][125].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Copper: Yesterday's copper price bottomed out and stabilized. In the long - term, the copper price is expected to rise due to the tight supply of copper mines and the increasing demand for grid upgrades. Short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [1]. - Tin: After the market panic dissipated, the overnight tin price recovered. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices still exists, and short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [3]. - Zinc: The zinc fundamentals are generally good. The price downside may be limited, but the upside may be restricted if downstream production recovery in the peak season is less than expected [5]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon futures price may be supported at the cost level. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of production and sales and cost fluctuations, with cautious operation [7]. - Polysilicon: It is recommended to wait and see for now. If participating, consider trying long positions after the price stabilizes, with attention to position control and stop - loss setting [8]. - Nickel: The nickel market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, with the main contract referring to the range of 134000 - 142000 [9]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main contract referring to the range of 14000 - 14500 [11]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price may maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, with a long - term bullish logic. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to operate in the range of 24000 - 26000 yuan/ton [13]. - Aluminum Alloy: The aluminum - alloy market will continue to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract referring to the range of 22500 - 24500 yuan/ton [14]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate widely around the macro - expectations in the short - term, with the main contract referring to the range of 155,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton [16][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped 1.47% to 99480 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount increased by 25 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 114.24 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% [1]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price dropped 4.79% to 377950 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 20.66% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the tin ore import volume was 17637 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.81% [3]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 24360 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 2835 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the refined zinc production was 50.46 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.99% [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, and the main contract price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 8670 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production in February was 27.57 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26.58% [7]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The average price of N - type re -投料 decreased by 0.2% to 48900 yuan/kg, and the main contract price increased by 3.86% to 42700 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production in February was 7.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.61% [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped 1.14% to 138900 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 7.41% [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, China's refined nickel production was 32550 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.59% [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped 0.35% to 14400 yuan/ton, and the price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) increased by 5.41% [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 133.99 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.89% [11]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 3.07% to 24450 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum import loss was - 1295.3 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 346.00 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.91% [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 2.04% to 25000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 35.80 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.31% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped 0.32% to 154750 yuan/ton, and the basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 593.41% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1. Stock Index Futures - The report presents various data on stock index futures, including price differences, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios. It provides historical percentile data for these indicators, which can help investors understand the current market position of these spreads and ratios [1]. 2.2. Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and historical percentiles of basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures. These data can assist investors in analyzing the market conditions of treasury bond futures [2]. 2.3. Precious Metals - Gold's support level at the 20 - day moving average of $5000 is crucial. It is recommended to wait for a clearer trend before taking action. Short - term, one can sell out - of - the - money call options above 1170 yuan. - Silver prices may face downward pressure and should be monitored for support at the 60 - day moving average. In a situation of converging volatility, the price range is between $80 - $90, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options to earn time value. - Platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Platinum may seek support around 550 yuan, and palladium may decline to around 410 yuan. One can roll and sell out - of - the - money call options [3]. 2.4. Container Shipping Industry - The market panic has cooled down, and the oil price has fluctuated. In the short term, it is difficult to disprove the significant price increase by shipowners, but there is a risk of the market peaking in the short term. The main contract 04 is approaching the delivery month and is at a premium to the spot index, with high uncertainty. It is recommended that investors participate with caution. It is also suggested to hold the 6 - 10 calendar spread [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The report provides the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentiles of price differences for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts. For example, the IF price difference has a current value of - 16.26, a change of - 1.82, and a historical percentile of 59.40% [1]. - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Data on cross - period spreads such as the difference between the next month and the current month, the quarterly month and the current month, etc., are presented. For instance, the IF cross - period spread between the next month and the current month has a value of - 19.00, a change of - 5.80, and a historical percentile of 22.90% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: The report shows the ratios of different stock index futures, such as the ratio of CSI 500 to SSE 50, IC to IF, etc., along with their changes and historical percentiles. For example, the ratio of CSI 500 to SSE 50 is 2.7943, with a change of 0.0007 and a historical percentile of 97.10% [1]. 3.2. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are provided, including the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and historical percentiles. For example, the TS basis on March 9, 2026, is 1.3549, with a change of 0.0002 and a historical percentile of 14.90% [2]. - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Information on cross - period spreads of different contracts is given, such as the difference between the current quarter and the next quarter, the next quarter and the subsequent quarter, etc. For example, the TF cross - period spread between the current quarter and the next quarter on March 9, 2026, is 0.0000, with a change of 0.0060 and a historical percentile of 25.60% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The report presents cross - variety spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, etc., along with their values, changes, and historical percentiles. For example, the TS - TF spread on March 9, 2026, is 0.0940, with a historical percentile of 9.90% [2]. 3.3. Precious Metals - **Futures Prices**: The report shows the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metal futures contracts, including AU2604, AG2604, COMEX gold, etc., along with their changes and price change rates. For example, the AU2604 contract closed at 1140.00 yuan/gram on March 9, 2026, with a decrease of 0.80 yuan and a decline rate of - 0.07% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The current and previous spot prices of precious metals such as London gold, London silver, etc., are presented, along with their changes and price change rates. For example, the price of London gold on March 9, 2026, is 5139.57, with a decrease of 28.44 and a decline rate of - 0.55% [3]. - **Basis**: The basis data between different precious metal contracts are provided, including the current value, previous value, change, and historical percentile. For example, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 0.04, with a change of 2.30 and a historical percentile of 46.10% [3]. - **Ratios**: The report shows the ratios of different precious metals, such as COMEX gold/silver, SHFE gold/silver, etc., along with their changes and price change rates. For example, the COMEX gold/silver ratio is 58.95, with a decrease of 2.23 and a decline rate of - 3.64% [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Data on interest rates and exchange rates, such as the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, the US dollar index, etc., are presented, along with their changes and price change rates. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield is 4.12, with a decrease of 0.03 and a decline rate of - 0.7% [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The report provides inventory and position data of precious metals, including the current value, previous value, change, and price change rate. For example, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 104934, with a decrease of 95 and a decline rate of - 0.09% [3]. 3.4. Container Shipping Industry - **Spot Quotes**: The report shows the spot quotes of shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route, including MAERSK, CMA, etc., along with their changes and price change rates. For example, MAERSK's quote on March 10, 2026, is 2347 US dollars/FEU, with an increase of 17 and an increase rate of 0.73% [4]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Data on shipping indexes such as SCFIS (European route), SCFI composite index, etc., are provided, including their values, changes, and price change rates. For example, the SCFIS (European route) on March 9, 2026, is 1545.46, with an increase of 82.1 and an increase rate of 5.61% [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The report presents the futures prices of container shipping contracts such as EC2604, EC2605, etc., along with their changes and price change rates. The basis of the main contract is also provided. For example, the EC2604 (main contract) on March 9, 2026, is 2236.4, with an increase of 344.2 and an increase rate of 18.19% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on container shipping industry fundamentals, including global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rates, and overseas economic indicators, are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply on March 9, 2026, is 3388.40 ATEU, with an increase of 0.06 and a percentage change of 0.00% [4].

Report Date and Title - The report is titled "Full Variety Spread Daily Report" and dated March 10, 2026 [3] Metals and Minerals Ferrous Metals - Silicon Iron (SF603) has a spot price of 5868, a futures price of 6048, a basis of 180, a basis rate of 3.07%, and a historical quantile of 81.80% [1] - Silicon Manganese (SM603) has a spot price of 6170, a futures price of 6132, a basis of 38, a basis rate of 0.62%, and a historical quantile of 32.80% [1] - Rebar (RB2605) has a spot price of 3220, a futures price of 3119, a basis of 101, a basis rate of 3.24%, and a historical quantile of 47.70% [1] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC2605) has a spot price of 3260, a futures price of 3270, a basis of -10, a basis rate of -0.131%, and a historical quantile of 14.50% [1] - Iron Ore (I2605) has a spot price of 828, a futures price of 785, a basis of 43, a basis rate of 5.54%, and a historical quantile of 36.00% [1] - Coke (J2605) has a spot price of 1745, a futures price of 1740, a basis of 5, a basis rate of 0.29%, and a historical quantile of 67.35% [1] - Coking Coal (JM2605) has a spot price of 1156, a futures price of 1168, a basis of -12, a basis rate of -1.03%, and a historical quantile of 26.50% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2604) has a spot price of 99480, a futures price of 100190, a basis of -710, a basis rate of -0.71%, and a historical quantile of 9.79% [1] - Aluminum (AL2604) has a spot price of 25200, a futures price of 24950, a basis of 250, a basis rate of 1.00%, and a historical quantile of 97.29% [1] - Alumina (AO2605) has a futures price of 5005, a basis of -250, a basis rate of -8.60%, and a historical quantile of 3.96% [1] - Zinc (ZN2604) has a spot price of 24290, a futures price of 24420, a basis of -130, a basis rate of -0.153%, and a historical quantile of 29.58% [1] - Tin (SN2604) has a spot price of 377950, a futures price of 383710, a basis of -5760, a basis rate of -1.50%, and a historical quantile of 4.79% [1] - Nickel (NISEOF) has a spot price of 135250, a futures price of 136520, a basis of -1270, a basis rate of -0.93%, and a historical quantile of 11.45% [1] - Stainless Steel (SS2605) has a spot price of 14400, a futures price of 14105, a basis of 465, a basis rate of 3.30%, and a historical quantile of 82.83% [1] - Lithium Carbonate (LC2605) has a spot price of 154750, a futures price of 161060, a basis of -6310, a basis rate of -3.92%, and a historical quantile of 6.38% [1] - Industrial Silicon (215605) has a spot price of 9250, a futures price of 8670, a basis of 580, a basis rate of 6.59%, and a historical quantile of 38.50% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2604) has a spot price of 1140.0, a futures price of 1140.0, a basis of 0.0, a basis rate of 0.00%, and a historical quantile of 92.10% [1] - Silver (AG2606) has a spot price of 21290.0, a futures price of 21547.0, a basis of -257.0, a basis rate of -1.20%, and a historical quantile of 4.40% [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal (M2605) has a spot price of 3250, a futures price of 2995.0, a basis of 255.0, a basis rate of 8.51%, and a historical quantile of 67.30% [1] - Soybean Oil (Y2605) has a spot price of 9040, a futures price of 8672.0, a basis of 368.0, a basis rate of 4.24%, and a historical quantile of 68.90% [1] - Palm Oil (P2605) has a spot price of 9670, a futures price of 9720.0, a basis of -50.0, a basis rate of -0.151%, and a historical quantile of 11.20% [1] - Rapeseed Meal (RM605) has a spot price of 2500, a futures price of 2433.0, a basis of 67.0 [1] - Rapeseed Oil (Oleos) has a spot price of 10770, a futures price of 9954.0, a basis of 816.0, a basis rate of 8.20%, and a historical quantile of 60.30% [1] - Corn (C2605) has a spot price of 2420, a futures price of 2395.0, a basis of 25.0, a basis rate of 1.04%, and a historical quantile of 47.60% [1] - Corn Starch (CS2605) has a spot price of 2780, a futures price of 2716.0, a basis of 64.0, a basis rate of 2.36%, and a historical quantile of 25.80% [1] - Live Hogs (FH5605) has a spot price of 10200, a futures price of 11200.0, a basis of -1000.0, a basis rate of -8.93%, and a historical quantile of 18.20% [1] - Eggs (JD2605) has a spot price of 2930, a futures price of 3427.0, a basis of -497.0, a basis rate of -14.50%, and a historical quantile of 7.50% [1] - Cotton (CF605) has a spot price of 16500, a futures price of 15285.0, a basis of 1215.0, a basis rate of 7.95%, and a historical quantile of 84.60% [1] - Sugar (SR605) has a spot price of 5540, a futures price of 5436.0, a basis of 104.0, a basis rate of 1.91%, and a historical quantile of 12.00% [1] - Apples (AP605) has a spot price of 9800, a futures price of 10287.0, a basis of -487.0, a basis rate of -4.73%, and a historical quantile of 7.50% [1] - Red Dates (CJ605) has a spot price of 7900, a futures price of 9060.0, a basis of -1160.0, a basis rate of -12.80%, and a historical quantile of 38.10% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Paraxylene (PX605) has a spot price of 10637.0, a futures price of 9028.0, a basis of 1609.0, a basis rate of 17.82%, and a historical quantile of 99.80% [1] - PTA (TA605) has a spot price of 6295.0, a futures price of 6316.0, a basis of -21.0, a basis rate of -0.33%, and a historical quantile of 51.10% [1] - Ethylene Glycol (EG2605) has a spot price of 4700.0, a futures price of 4597.0, a basis of 103.0, a basis rate of 2.24%, and a historical quantile of 91.10% [1] - Polyester Staple Fiber (PF604) has a spot price of 7500.0, a futures price of 7864.0, a basis of -364.0, a basis rate of -4.63%, and a historical quantile of 5.70% [1] - Styrene (EB2604) has a spot price of 11100.0, a futures price of 9587.0, a basis of 1513.0, a basis rate of 15.78%, and a historical quantile of 99.60% [1] - Methanol (MA605) has a spot price of 2830.0, a futures price of 2830.0, a basis of 0.0, a basis rate of 0.00%, and a historical quantile of 43.20% [1] - Urea (UR605) has a spot price of 1880.0, a futures price of 1905.0, a basis of -25.0, a basis rate of -1.31%, and a historical quantile of 10.30% [1] - LLDPE (L2605) has a spot price of 9400.0, a futures price of 7944.0, a basis of 1456.0, a basis rate of 18.83%, and a historical quantile of 99.90% [1] - PP (PP2605) has a spot price of 9730.0, a futures price of 8034.0, a basis of 1696.0, a basis rate of 21.11%, and a historical quantile of 99.80% [1] - PVC (V2605) has a spot price of 5600.0, a futures price of 5466.0, a basis of 134.0, a basis rate of 2.45%, and a historical quantile of 91.60% [1] - Caustic Soda (SH605) has a spot price of 2046.9, a futures price of 2442.0, a basis of -395.1, a basis rate of -16.18%, and a historical quantile of 8.80% [1] - LPG (PG2604) has a spot price of 5898.0, a futures price of 5616.0, a basis of 282.0, a basis rate of 5.02%, and a historical quantile of 48.80% [1] - Asphalt (BU2604) has a spot price of 4080.0, a futures price of 4075.0, a basis of 5.0, a basis rate of 0.12%, and a historical quantile of 55.10% [1] - Butadiene Rubber (BR2604) has a spot price of 15800.0, a futures price of 15835.0, a basis of -35.0, a basis rate of -0.22%, and a historical quantile of 28.50% [1] - Glass (FG605) has a spot price of 952.0, a futures price of 1058.0, a basis of -106.0, a basis rate of -11.13%, and a historical quantile of 33.82% [1] - Soda Ash (SA605) has a spot price of 1151.0, a futures price of 1191.0, a basis of -40.0, a basis rate of -3.48%, and a historical quantile of 31.72% [1] - Natural Rubber (RU2605) has a spot price of 16950.0, a futures price of 16895.0, a basis of 55.0, a basis rate of 0.32%, and a historical quantile of 97.06% [1] Financial Futures - IF2603.CFF has a basis rate of -0.135% and a historical quantile of 28.50% [1] - IH2603.CFE has a spot price of 2963.0, a futures price of 2962.4, a basis of -0.6, a basis rate of -0.02%, and a historical quantile of 52.10% [1] - IC2603.CFE has a spot price of 8279.5, a futures price of 8267.0, a basis of -12.5, a basis rate of -0.15%, and a historical quantile of 63.80% [1] - IM2603.CFE has a spot price of 8203.9, a futures price of 8191.0, a basis of -12.9, a basis rate of -0.16%, and a historical quantile of 66.50% [1] - 2 - Year Bond (TS2606) has a historical quantile of 29.30% [1] - 5 - Year Bond (TF2606) has a historical quantile of 34.40% [1] - 10 - Year Bond (T2606) has a historical quantile of 23.50% [1] - 30 - Year Bond (TL2606) has a basis rate of 0.56% and a historical quantile of 87.40% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - As of the afternoon close on March 10, 2026, the freight futures price of container shipping on the European route dropped by 13.92%, with the main contract at 1848.9 points and a daily reduction of 3,397 lots. The core reason is that there are signs of easing in the US-Iran war, the decline in crude oil has cooled the market sentiment, and the market has followed the decline in crude oil, squeezing out the current "premium" in the futures price and waiting for the guidance of the spot price [1]. - After the futures price fell today, the main 04 contract has squeezed out most of the premium. It is expected that the subsequent price will follow the spot freight situation, and the overall volatility will gradually decrease. It is advisable to wait for the market sentiment to cool further and then focus on the long - order layout opportunities for the peak - season contracts, while being vigilant against the recurrence of geopolitical sentiment and the possible recession after a sharp rise in oil prices [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Driving Analysis 1: Geopolitical Tension Eases and the European Route and Crude Oil Decline in Tandem - Previously, due to the de facto "shutdown" of the Strait of Hormuz and the continuous jump in VLCC freight rates, oil and gas facilities in multiple Middle Eastern countries were affected, and crude oil prices rose unilaterally. The market panic reached its peak yesterday, with the intraday maximum increase in external oil prices approaching 30%. Subsequently, President Trump said in an interview that the US military action against Iran would end "soon", and G7 + IEA will hold a meeting on March 10 to discuss whether to release oil reserves. The expectation of geopolitical easing has increased significantly, the market panic has cooled significantly, and international oil prices have plunged [3]. - Historically, the correlation between container shipping futures on the European route and crude oil has been low because fuel costs account for a relatively small proportion of long - distance shipping costs, and the core pricing of freight depends on supply - demand fundamentals. However, recently, due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the sentiment of the shutdown of oil transportation has spread to the global shipping supply chain. The market trading focus has shifted from fundamental supply - demand to channel safety, and the futures price trends of the European route and crude oil have shown a high degree of positive correlation in the short term. Therefore, after the sharp decline in crude oil overnight, the sentiment in the European route market has cooled synchronously, resulting in a significant gap - down opening of the market today [3]. Driving Analysis 2: Uncertainty in the Implementation of Freight Price Increases in the Off - season, and the Market Squeezes the "Premium" and Waits for Spot Guidance - As previously deduced, the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on the near - term capacity of the European route is difficult to assess, and its transmission result may not necessarily be positive. The potential impact lies in the gradual transmission of capacity loss and port chaos, which will ultimately affect the peak - season shipping schedules from May to July. Affected by the suspension of the Middle East route, two large ships (21,000 tons and 19,000 tons respectively) have been transferred from the Middle East to the European route in late March, significantly increasing the short - term supply pressure [4]. - On the demand side, as downstream manufacturing enterprises gradually resume work and production, the recovery rhythm of cargo volume is relatively moderate, and there are no signs of over - booking and cargo rejection. From the market sentiment perspective, shipowners are expected to issue a new round of price increase letters soon. Currently, the validity period of MSC's price increase letters has been compressed from once a month to once every half - month or even once a week, and the impact of subsequent price increase letters on the market sentiment is expected to be dull [4]. - In the current relatively balanced off - season supply - demand situation, it is difficult to assess the implementation of freight price increases. On one hand, the Middle East war is undetermined, and the Strait of Hormuz has not reopened. It is only a short - term cooling of market sentiment, and there are still great uncertainties in future channel safety. On the other hand, the current "sufficient" supply and the "expected" future chaos create a tug - of - war, making it difficult to assess the subsequent freight trends. If the Strait of Hormuz/Mandeb Strait remains blocked, the probability of successful price increases by shipping companies will increase significantly. If the war eases and the channel safety risks are alleviated, shipowners may lower prices again to increase the loading rate in the off - season when the cargo volume has not fully recovered. Therefore, in the current off - season, as the market sentiment cools, the market has temporarily returned to rationality. After including the fuel surcharge (the current booking price converted to the index is about 1,700 - 1,800 points), the market has fallen sharply today, and the overall valuation has dropped from a significant premium to near par, waiting for the guidance of the actual freight price [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, policy expectations, and supply - demand relationships, with different trends for different varieties. For example, some varieties are expected to be volatile, while others show short - term strength or weakness [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Tin (SN2604) is expected to be volatile and strong; Methanol (MA2605) is expected to be weak; Silicon iron (SF605) is expected to be volatile and strong; Palm oil (P2605) is expected to be strong in the short term [3] Full - Variety Daily Reviews Equity Indexes - Equity indexes bottomed out and rebounded, and energy risks may be alleviated. With the possibility of subsequent negotiations increasing in the Middle - East conflict, it may gradually cool down, but the uncertainty remains high. It is recommended to wait and see, reduce operations, maintain a low position, and wait for the macro - situation to be clearer [3] Precious Metals - Gold has key support at the 20 - day moving average of $5000, and it is necessary to wait and see cautiously. It is recommended to observe the volatility change and sell out - of - the - money call options above $1170 in the short term; Silver fluctuates repeatedly and tests the support of the 60 - day moving average, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to earn time value; Platinum and palladium are supported by the tightening supply expectation but are dragged down by gold and silver, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [3] Steel and Related Products - For steel, cost pushes up the price, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions when the price is high. For iron ore, macro - disturbances intensify, and supply - demand expectations are revised, with wide - range fluctuations between 750 - 800. For coking coal, the spot is gradually stabilizing, and it is expected to fluctuate between 1100 - 1250. For coke, the steel mill reduces the coke price, and it is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850. For silicon iron and manganese silicon, the market sentiment is changeable, and the cost boosts the price. It is recommended to wait and see for one - sided operations and do 5 - 9 positive spreads [3] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices bottomed out and stabilized, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low prices in the long term. For aluminum, due to the spread of the Middle - East supply crisis, it is recommended to buy on dips. For zinc, the inventory accumulation slows down, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low prices in the long term. For tin, the panic in the market dissipates, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low prices in the long term. For nickel, the macro - risk increases, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 134000 - 142000. For stainless steel, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust within the range of 14000 - 14500 [3] New Energy and Chemical Products - For polycrystalline silicon, the spot price falls, and it is recommended to wait and see and operate within the short - term range. For lithium carbonate, the macro - uncertainty increases, and it is recommended to try to buy out - of - the - money call options lightly. For crude oil, it is recommended to wait and see. For PX, PTA, pure benzene, and styrene, due to the high - level decline of oil prices, it is recommended to reduce long positions. For short - fiber, bottle - chip, and other products, the operations are mainly related to raw material prices and processing fees [3] Agricultural Products - For oilseeds, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. For live pigs, it is necessary to pay attention to the supply reduction. For corn, it runs at a high level. For oils, it is expected to be volatile and strong. For sugar, it is strong in the short term. For cotton, it is recommended to reduce long positions. For eggs, it is strong in the short term. For apples, it is recommended to match long positions with put options for protection. For red dates, it is recommended to short on short - term rebounds [3] Shipping - For the container shipping European line, the probability of short - term navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is low, and it is recommended to do 6 - 10 positive spreads or wait and see [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, leading to sharp fluctuations in prices of various commodities and financial products. The market sentiment is highly volatile, and the future trend depends on the development of the conflict and the intervention of relevant policies [2][3][87] - For most commodities, the short - term price trends are strongly influenced by geopolitical factors, while the medium - to long - term trends are related to their own supply - demand fundamentals. For example, for metals like copper and tin, there is a long - term bullish outlook, but short - term adjustments may occur [16][33] - In the energy and chemical sectors, the supply and demand of products are affected by factors such as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the reduction of oil production in the Middle East. The price trends are closely related to the price of crude oil and the development of the geopolitical situation [87][88][90] Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Tin**: Trump's hint that the war is "basically completed" has dissipated market panic, and tin prices have risen. In the medium - to long - term, there is a bullish logic, and short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [2][33] - **Methanol**: Geopolitical risks remain, and methanol prices are in a high - level wide - range shock. The current price is mainly driven by geopolitical sentiment, and attention should be paid to the actual progress of the conflict and the inventory reduction rhythm at ports [3] - **Silicon Iron**: Market sentiment is changeable, and the cost of silicon iron has a boosting effect. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see due to the influence of international geopolitical conflicts [3][58] - **Oils and Fats**: The futures of oils and fats opened the daily limit and then closed. There is still a risk of subsequent fluctuations. Different types of oils have different trends, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and the supply - demand situation [4][5][78][79][80] Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index bottomed out and rebounded. The energy risk may be alleviated. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and try to construct a bullish spread of out - of - the - money put options on far - month contracts [6][7][8] - **Precious Metals**: Trump hinted at easing the conflict between the US and Iran. Industrial products generally rose, the US dollar declined, and precious metals opened low and rebounded. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the Middle East situation on the global economy and inflation, as well as the demand and capital trends of precious metals [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Concerned about the change in the situation between the US and Iran, copper prices bottomed out and stabilized. In the medium - to long - term, the copper price is expected to rise, and short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [12][16] - **Alumina**: The chemical property linkage has strengthened, and the price has risen and then fallen. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to short on rallies [17][18] - **Aluminum**: The supply crisis in the Middle East has spread, and the price volatility has increased. In the short term, it is recommended to trade cautiously, and in the long term, the bullish logic remains unchanged [19][21] - **Zinc**: The increase in social inventory has slowed down, and the spot discount has stabilized. The fundamentals are good, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips in the long term [25][29] - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, the short - term is in a wide - range shock, and the long - term is bullish [29][33] - **Nickel**: The macro risk has increased, and the market is in a wide - range adjustment. It is expected to maintain a range shock, and it is recommended to operate within the range [34][36] - **Stainless Steel**: The geopolitical situation has caused the price to maintain a shock. The raw materials are in short supply, and the supply - demand is in a game. It is expected to be in a shock adjustment in the short term [36][39] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro uncertainty has increased, and the price is in a wide - range adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [40][42] - **Polysilicon**: The spot price has fallen, and the futures price has risen and then fallen. It is recommended to wait and see [43][44][45] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen, and the futures price has risen and then fallen. It is recommended to reduce or close long positions at around 8200 yuan/ton [45][47] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The cost supports the rise of steel prices. It is recommended to take profits on long positions on rallies and pay attention to the demand recovery height [47][48][49] - **Iron Ore**: The macro disturbance has intensified, and the supply - demand expectation has been revised. The price may be in a shock - upward trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [50][51] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price has gradually stabilized, and the overseas energy commodities have risen sharply. It is recommended to view it in a shock manner and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke [52][54] - **Coke**: The steel mills have lowered the coke price, and the price fluctuates following the coking coal. It is recommended to view it in a shock manner [55][56] - **Silicon Iron**: Market sentiment is changeable, and the cost has a boosting effect. It is recommended to wait and see [57][58] - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment is changeable, and the cost has a boosting effect. It is recommended to wait and see [60][62] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Crude oil has driven the rise of oils and fats and oilseeds. It is expected to be in a high - level shock at home and abroad [63][65] - **Hogs**: The pressure of hog slaughter is large. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply reduction intensity, and the short - term upward space is limited [66][67][68] - **Corn**: The upward driving force is insufficient, and the price has risen and then fallen. It is expected to be in a high - level shock [69][70] - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar is trending strongly, and the domestic spot price has been raised. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [71] - **Cotton**: The cotton price has risen and then fallen, and the adjustment range of the disk may be limited. It is expected to be in a high - level wide - range shock [73] - **Eggs**: The cost support is strong, and the egg price is trending strongly. It is expected to be in a low - level shock in the short term [76][77] - **Oils and Fats**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, there is still a risk of subsequent fluctuations [78][79][80] - **Jujubes**: The market sentiment has boosted the futures price, but the rebound height is limited. It is recommended to conduct light - position band operations and strictly control risks [82][83] - **Apples**: The demand performance is average, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the replenishment before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the de - stocking of ordinary fruits, and the weather changes [84][85] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump believes that the war against Iran is "basically over", and the oil price has fluctuated greatly. It is expected to continue to fluctuate significantly, and it is recommended that investors participate cautiously [87] - **PX**: The oil price has fallen from a high level, and there is a risk of a short - term decline in PX. It is recommended to reduce long positions and pay attention to the oil price trend [88][89] - **PTA**: The supply - demand drive is limited, and it fluctuates following the raw materials. It is recommended to reduce long positions and pay attention to the oil price trend [90][92] - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it fluctuates following the raw materials. It is recommended to operate in the same way as PTA and pay attention to the cost transmission of downstream products [93] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply is gradually increasing, and the price fluctuates following the raw materials. It is recommended to operate in the same way as PTA and exit the call option buyers [94][95] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand expectation in March is improving, and it fluctuates following the oil price. It is recommended to exit the EG5 - 9 positive spread on rallies [96] - **Pure Benzene**: The oil price has fallen from a high level, and there is a risk of a short - term decline in pure benzene. It is recommended to reduce long positions, pay attention to the oil price trend, and shrink the EB - BZ spread on rallies [97][98] - **Styrene**: The oil price has fallen from a high level, and there is a risk of a short - term decline in styrene. It is recommended to reduce long positions, pay attention to the oil price trend, and shrink the EB04 - BZ04 spread on rallies [99][100] - **LLDPE**: The spot price fluctuates during the day, and the trading volume is small. The market is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [101] - **PP**: The valuation is low, and the price has risen significantly. It is recommended to gradually take profits on the PL spread [102][103] - **Methanol**: Geopolitical risks remain, and methanol prices are in a high - level wide - range shock. It is recommended to hold long positions [103] - **Caustic Soda**: Geopolitical disturbances have affected the price, and the price has risen greatly. It is necessary to be vigilant against the decline of the disk after the situation eases [104][105] - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances have brought concerns about the cost side, and the emotional fluctuations of PVC have increased. The price is still under the trend of passive increase [107] - **Urea**: The Middle East conflict has affected the price, and the price is running strongly. It is recommended to follow the low - long idea by tracking crude - oil - related varieties in the short term [108][109] - **Soda Ash**: Affected by the weak fundamentals, the price has risen and then fallen. It is recommended to wait and see [109][113] - **Glass**: Driven by emotions and the expectation of cost increase, the price has risen and then fallen. It is recommended to wait and see [110][114] - **Natural Rubber**: Trump hinted that the war is "basically completed", and the rubber price has fallen. It is expected to be in a shock in the short term [115][117] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The tense situation in the Middle East has led to a decline in the raw material supply expectation, and the short - term BR fluctuates following the crude oil. It is recommended to exit the BR call option buyers and go long on RU and short on BR in the short term [117][119][120] Container Shipping to Europe - The probability of short - term navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is low. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation of the price increase in the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the new opening price of MSK, and hold the 6 - 10 positive spread [120][121]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and daily changes of price spreads for various stock index futures contracts, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, along with cross - variety ratios. However, no clear investment suggestions are made other than presenting data [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the IRR, basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different treasury bond futures contracts such as TS, TF, T, and TL, with data on their changes and historical quantiles [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to be bullish above the 20 - day moving average, and investors can hold long positions and sell out - of - the - money call options with strike prices above 1200 yuan. Silver's long - term upward logic remains valid, but short - term factors limit its upside, and selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended. For platinum and palladium, prices are generally supported, and for platinum, a strategy of buying on dips near the 20 - day moving average is suggested, and going long on the platinum - palladium ratio is also advisable [3]. - **Container Shipping**: Due to the recent military conflict between the US and Iran, the sentiment impact on the 04 contract of container shipping European routes is greater than the fundamental impact. It is expected that the main contract 2604 will open significantly higher, and attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the conflict and the collection of war surcharges [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Spreads**: The current values of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures - spot spreads are 3.15, 5.97, - 13.05, and - 29.44 respectively. The historical 1 - year quantiles are 93.80%, 93.40%, 83.60%, and 25.00% respectively. There are also detailed cross - period spreads and cross - variety ratios provided [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis**: On February 27, 2026, the basis values of TS, TF, T, and TL are - 0.0112, 1.4278, 1.5179, and 1.3159 respectively, with corresponding historical quantiles of 16.70%, 35.10%, 52.10%, and 38.80% [2]. - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Different contracts have various cross - period spread values, such as the "current quarter - next quarter" spread of TS being 0.0000, with a change of - 0.0160 and a historical quantile of 25.60% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For example, the "TS - TF" spread is - 0.0010 on February 27, 2026, with a historical quantile of 8.30% [2]. Precious Metals - **Futures Prices**: On February 27, 2026, the domestic futures closing prices of AU2604, AG2604, PT2606, and PD2606 are 1147.90 yuan/gram, 23019 yuan/kilogram, 623.75 yuan/gram, and 464.85 yuan/gram respectively, showing different degrees of increase compared to the previous day [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold, London silver, and other spot prices also changed on the same day. For example, London gold rose from 5181.25 to 5278.26 US dollars/ounce, with a growth rate of 1.87% [3]. - **Basis and Ratios**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 5.42, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 46.10%. There are also various price ratios such as COMEX gold/silver, which decreased by 4.13% to 56.11 [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased to 3.97% with a decline of 1.2%, and the US dollar index decreased to 97.64 with a decline of 0.14% [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver decreased by - 0.01% and - 11.48% respectively, while the positions of some ETFs changed [3]. Container Shipping - **Shipping Rates**: The freight rates of some shipping companies such as MAERSK, CMA, and MSC remained stable, while ONE's freight rate decreased by 9.88%. The settlement price index of SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US West route) decreased, while the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) increased [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The prices of EC2604 (main contract) decreased by 0.94%, while the basis (main contract) increased by 3.44% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai decreased by 8.68%, and some overseas economic indicators such as the US manufacturing PMI index increased by 9.81% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After the Spring Festival, production and sales have not fully recovered. The demand recovery rhythm after the festival and the rush-to-export effect brought by export tax rebates will be the key variables affecting the short - term market trend. If downstream enterprises' production resumes and demand is released, the procurement demand for polysilicon is expected to pick up, inventory pressure will be relieved, and the futures market may stabilize and rebound. Otherwise, polysilicon prices will remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to the support at the 45,000 level [3] Summary by Directory 1. Spot and Futures Price Trends - **Spot**: After the Spring Festival, trading was still weak, and polysilicon spot quotes were lowered. The price of N - type re - feedstock decreased by 2.35% to 52 yuan/kg, while the price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50 yuan/kg [12] - **Futures**: The futures contract prices trended weakly. On Friday, the futures price fell to around 455,000 yuan/ton and then rebounded, closing at 46,495 yuan/ton. The main contract price and the price differences between different contracts are presented in the report [7] 2. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: In January 2026, the domestic polysilicon production decreased to about 10.08 - 10.2 million tons. In February, production will be further reduced to less than 8.5 million tons. In March, production is expected to increase due to more production days and the resumption of some enterprises [28] - **Demand**: In February, demand continued to decline. In January, the production of battery cells decreased by about 10% to 41.44GW, and the February production plan dropped to 36.7GW. The January production of components reached 35GW, and the February production plan was about 30GW. The weekly production of silicon wafers increased slightly by 1.3GW to 11.35GW, and the inventory rose by 1GW to 31.06GW. The domestic installed capacity in December 2025 was about 20GW, and the January installation was sluggish, but exports are expected to recover in the first quarter [43][48][52] 3. Cost - Profit Analysis - The increase in polysilicon prices is beneficial for profit repair in the photovoltaic products, especially in polysilicon. However, due to the significant decline in downstream demand and no obvious signs of recovery in the first quarter, there is no expectation of continuous profit growth. Daquan Energy's 2025 revenue was 4.839 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 34.71%. The net loss attributable to shareholders was 1.129 billion yuan, a narrowing of over 50% year - on - year. The estimated production in the first quarter of 2026 is 35,000 - 40,000 tons, and the annual production is expected to be 140,000 - 170,000 tons [68] 4. Import and Export - In December 2025, the polysilicon import volume was 0.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 77% and a year - on - year decrease of 43%. The export volume decreased to 0.16 million tons, changing from net export to net import, but the whole year remained a net exporter. The silicon wafer export volume in December 2025 was 0.97 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 49.4% and a year - on - year increase of 122.3%. The solar battery export volume in December was 1.37 billion pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9% and a year - on - year increase of 66.9% [70][79][83] 5. Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Changes - After the Spring Festival, the weekly inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 34.4 million tons. The warehouse receipts increased by 890 lots to 9,480 lots, equivalent to 28,440 tons. The inventory decreased slightly but was still high compared to the same period [94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, due to the Middle - East situation and the impact of US non - farm payroll data on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, gold is in a short - term volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and consider taking profits on long positions at high levels or selling out - of - the - money call options to protect long positions [1]. - For silver, the logic of medium - to - long - term price increase driven by supply inventory shortage and strong investment demand still holds. However, short - term exchange rule adjustments and cautious capital attitudes limit the upward momentum. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to earn time value [1]. - For platinum and palladium, supported by macro - financial attributes and a tight supply pattern, with stable industrial demand and slightly increasing investment demand, prices are generally supported. But due to the drag of gold and silver, the short - term trend remains weakly volatile, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the money call options [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1152.00 yuan/gram on March 5, down 1.06 yuan or 0.09% from March 4 [1]. - AG2604 contract closed at 21639 yuan/ten grams on March 5, down 215 yuan or 0.98% from March 4 [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 563.95 yuan/gram on March 5, up 0.45 yuan or 0.08% from March 4 [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 428.00 yuan/gram on March 5, down 5.80 yuan or 1.34% from March 4 [1]. 3.2 Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 5093.30 on March 5, down 58.30 or 1.13% from March 4 [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 82.52 on March 5, down 1.25 or 1.49% from March 4 [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2128.20 dollars/ounce on March 5, down 37.60 or 1.74% from March 4 [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1650.00 on March 5, down 48.50 or 2.86% from March 4 [1]. 3.3 Spot Prices - London gold was at 5084.69 on March 5, down 35.85 or 0.70% from the previous value [1]. - London silver was at 82.26 on March 5, down 1.28 or 1.54% from the previous value [1]. - Spot palladium was at 2120.10 dollars/ounce on March 5, down 46.90 or 2.16% from the previous value [1]. - Spot platinum was at 1629.50 on March 5, down 38.00 or 2.28% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold + D was at 1148.56 on March 5, down 4.39 or 0.38% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 21068 yuan/ten grams on March 5, down 493 or 2.29% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 554 yuan/gram on March 5, up 3 or 0.47% from the previous value [1]. 3.4 Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 3.44, down 3.33 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 571, down 278 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 8.61, up 22.45 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 76.30% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.26, down 0.04 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 30.20% [1]. 3.5 Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 61.72, up 0.22 or 0.36% from the previous value [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver was 53.24, up 0.48 or 0.90% from the previous value [1]. - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.29, up 0.01 or 1.15% from the previous value [1]. - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium was 1.32, up 0.02 or 1.44% from the previous value [1]. 3.6 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.13, up 0.04 or 1.0% from the previous value [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.57, up 0.03 or 0.8% from the previous value [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.82, up 0.02 or 1.1% from the previous value [1]. - The US dollar index was 99.04, up 0.25 or 0.25% from the previous value [1]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9184, up 0.0238 or 0.35% from the previous value [1]. 3.7 Inventories and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 105033, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 272721 kilograms, down 22102 or 7.50% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 33100294, up 59808 or 0.18% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 351341925, down 877946 or 0.25% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 17003460, up 2000 or 0.01% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 81235306, down 5908189 or 6.78% from the previous value [1]. - The SPRD gold ETF position was 1076, down 5.15 or 0.48% from the previous value [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 15810, down 138.05 or 0.87% from the previous value [1].