Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4,050 ringgit. After the short - term oscillation, a new breakthrough direction will be chosen. If Malaysian palm oil breaks through 4,200 ringgit, domestic palm oil futures may follow suit [1]. - Soybean oil: The US EPA is expected to finalize the 2026 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) in early March. The domestic soybean oil inventory decreased last week, but the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, and the basis quotation has limited fluctuation space [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The improvement in China - Canada trade relations brings hope for rapeseed imports, but it cannot relieve the short - term supply shortage. The rapeseed oil futures and basis are expected to have limited downward space and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [1]. 2. Cotton USDA weekly signing reached a high for the year, and the US cotton production was slightly reduced. Zhengzhou cotton has support from cotton consumption demand but is also restricted by factors such as compressed downstream profits and the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference. Short - term cotton prices are expected to continue the adjustment trend [2]. 3. Sugar Internationally, the Brazilian sugar production in late December decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative production increased. India's sugar production is strong, and Thailand's sugar - making season is slow. Domestically, the spot market is in the peak season, but the consumption fails to meet expectations. Sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3]. 4. Red Dates Affected by weak demand and pessimistic market sentiment, futures prices are under pressure. The Spring Festival peak - season effect is not obvious, and the market is in a state of active de - capacity. The futures market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4]. 5. Apples The procurement in the production areas has started, but the transaction is light, and the price is weakly stable. The inventory in the sales areas is high, and the demand is weak. The futures market is affected by weak demand and cooling capital sentiment, and the futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6][9]. 6. Corn The supply of corn in the short term is tight, and the downstream demand for pre - holiday stocking is increasing, which supports the corn price. However, the increasing policy - related corn supply limits the price increase. Corn prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. 7. Pigs The weekend spot pig prices are strong, and the breeding side is reluctant to sell. There is still some second - fattening, but the enthusiasm is limited. The supply - demand game is intensifying. The futures market is mainly trading the post - Spring Festival demand, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [16][17]. 8. Meal The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is abundant, and the auction suppresses the market. However, the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low, and there is uncertainty in the arrival rhythm. The soybean meal inventory has started to decline. The soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the support around 2,700 [20]. 9. Eggs The decline in the laying - hen inventory has slowed down, and the market's overall shipment pressure has been relieved. The Spring Festival stocking is over, and the market is afraid of high prices. The futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On January 15, 2026, the average price of soybeans in Jiangsu decreased by 0.59% compared with the previous day; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 1.88%; the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.91%. The prices of related futures contracts also showed different degrees of decline [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The soybean oil inventory decreased by 68,800 tons last week; the palm oil warehouse receipts decreased by 900; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 80 [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread increased by 39.93%; the rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread decreased by 2.92% [1]. 2. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the cotton 2605 contract decreased by 0.31%, and the cotton 2609 contract decreased by 0.24%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 2.62% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton decreased by 0.49%, and the CC Index: 3128B decreased by 0.32% [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory increased by 23.5%, the import volume increased by 33.3%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 4.6%, and the fabric inventory days increased by 4.4% [2]. 3. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the sugar 2605 contract decreased by 0.27%, and the sugar 2609 contract decreased by 0.13%. The ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 2.74% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning sugar price decreased by 0.19%, and the Kunming sugar price remained unchanged [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 16.43%, the cumulative sales decreased by 37.18%, and the industrial inventory increased by 10.82% [3]. 4. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the red date 2605 contract decreased by 0.68%, the 2607 contract decreased by 0.67%, and the 2609 contract decreased by 0.60% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Cangzhou super - grade red date price decreased by 0.74%, and the first - grade red date price decreased by 2.44% [4]. - **Inventory**: The open interest increased by 3.84%, the warehouse receipts increased by 0.83%, and the effective forecasts decreased by 7.69% [4]. 5. Apples - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the apple 2605 contract decreased by 2.05%, and the 2610 contract decreased by 0.92%. The open interest decreased by 8.03% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at major fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 2.25% [6]. 6. Corn - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the corn 2603 contract's basis decreased by 7.25%, and the 3 - 7 spread increased by 50.00%. The open interest increased by 0.45%, and the warehouse receipts increased by 4.61% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Jinzhou Port FAS price decreased by 0.21%, and the Shekou Port market price remained unchanged [13]. - **Industry Situation**: In the Northeast, the price is strongly supported; in North China, the price has a small increase. The demand side has a certain inventory - building intention [13]. 7. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the main pig futures contract increased by 44.87%, the 2605 contract decreased by 1.73%, and the 2603 contract decreased by 2.30%. The open interest decreased by 4.40%, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 46.87% [16]. - **Spot Market**: The pig prices in various regions showed an upward trend, and the slaughter volume decreased by 0.52% [16]. - **Industry Situation**: The self - breeding profit increased by 164.04%, and the purchased - piglet breeding profit increased by 2193.07%. The fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% [16]. 8. Meal - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the soybean meal 2605 contract remained unchanged, the rapeseed meal 2605 contract decreased by 1.51%, the soybean 1 main contract decreased by 0.07%, and the soybean 2 main contract decreased by 0.15% [20]. - **Spot Market**: The Jiangsu soybean meal price remained unchanged, the Jiangsu rapeseed meal price decreased by 3.39%, the Harbin soybean price remained unchanged, and the Jiangsu imported soybean price remained unchanged [20]. - **Industry Situation**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is abundant, but the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low [20]. 9. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the egg 03 contract decreased by 1.60%, and the 04 contract decreased by 1.23% [23]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 1.71%, the egg - chick price increased by 3.45%, the culled - hen price increased by 7.50%, and the feed - to - egg ratio decreased by 3.42% [23]. - **Industry Situation**: The laying - hen inventory decline has slowed down, and the Spring Festival stocking is over [23].

目录： 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2603 | 总持仓稍有下降 | 前二十席位减仓为主 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2603 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 前二十席位增减仓不一 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2603 | 总持仓明显上升 | 国君空头减仓 1000 手以上 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2603 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 中信国君增仓超 1000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -8,290.0 -1,653.0 2,736.0 -5,800.0 -4,289.0 -1,610.0 6,196.0 1,234.0 -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月20日 | 品种 | 爰新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | -5.86 | 2.82 | 76.20% | 48.80% | -2.97 | H期配分去 | 1.66 | 74.50% | 66.10% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 0.33 | -21.95 | 84.00% | 50.2096 | IM期现价差 | -79.05 | -8.15 | 75.00% | 21.60% | -4.20 | 次月-当月 | 7.00 | 81.90% | 50.90% | | | -44.00 | 零月-当月 | -30.20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, domestic demand is weak, and prices have fully factored in the weak demand. The decline in production and the accumulation of raw materials have led to a weakening of raw material prices, and the recent cost reduction may cause the steel price center to shift downwards. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold long positions in the steel - to - iron ore ratio and long positions in the hot - rolled coil to rebar price spread [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market faces a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is constrained by high inventory on the upside and supported by the expectation of steel mill restocking on the downside. In the short term, attention should be paid to the resumption of iron - making production, macro - level narratives, and the rhythm of steel mill restocking. In the long term, negotiation situations need to be monitored. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate widely, with a recommended trading range of 770 - 830 [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, after the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting further price cuts and are considering production cuts to maintain prices. The mainstream coke enterprises have initiated a price increase, which is expected to be implemented. The futures price of coke has fallen in advance, and the spot price decline depends on the decline of coking coal. It is recommended to be bearish on the futures price and consider an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. - For coking coal, although there is a demand for spot restocking before the Spring Festival, the futures price has already factored in the increase. After the Spring Festival, the market supply and demand are expected to be loose. It is also recommended to be bearish on the futures price and consider an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is a lack of upward momentum at the industrial level. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - level and policy - related narratives. - Ferromanganese: It is in a situation of weak supply and demand. High inventory suppresses the price in the short term, but manganese ore provides support. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined, except for the 01 contract of rebar and hot - rolled coil, which increased [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased, while plate billet prices remained unchanged. The costs of different types of steel production varied, and the profits of most regions showed an upward trend [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - making production decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.6 tons to 819.2 tons, a rise of 0.1%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.9 tons to 1247.0 tons, a decline of 0.6% [1]. Trading and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume decreased by 1.0 to 8.5, a decline of 10.4%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 29.3 tons to 826.1 tons, a rise of 3.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of iron ore spot, warehouse - receipt costs, and price indices mostly declined. The 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread also decreased [3]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 260.7 tons to 2659.7 tons, a decline of 8.9%. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 251.0 tons to 2929.9 tons, a decline of 7.9%. However, the national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons to 11964.7 tons, a rise of 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - making production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.6%. The 45 - port daily average ore - unloading volume decreased by 3.4 tons to 661.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The national monthly pig - iron and crude - steel production also decreased [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 279.8 tons to 16555.1 tons, a rise of 1.7%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 272.6 tons to 9262.2 tons, a rise of 3.0%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2 days to 21 days, a rise of 10.5% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices showed a slight upward trend, while the basis of some contracts decreased. The coking profit decreased, while the coal - mine profit increased [5]. Supply - The daily average coke production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly. The production of raw coal and clean coal in sample coal mines also decreased slightly [5]. Demand - The iron - making production of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the demand for coke and coking coal showed mixed trends [5]. Inventory - Coke inventory increased slightly overall, with ports and steel mills accumulating inventory and coking plants reducing inventory. Coking coal inventory also increased slightly, with all links in the supply chain accumulating inventory [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices - The futures prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese declined slightly, and the spot prices of most regions also decreased [6]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions showed different trends, and the production profits generally decreased [6]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the production of ferromanganese remained stable. The production start - up rates of both decreased [6]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the iron - making production and blast - furnace start - up rate also decreased [6]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the average available days of inventory also decreased [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - Overall, the polyolefin industry is pressured by supply and seasonal demand, but the upside space may be limited due to cost support and profit compression. Attention should be paid to the substantial changes in the demand side. For PE, the HD - LLDPE spread is narrowing, and the marginal supply of the standard product (LLDPE) is expected to increase, while the demand is in the seasonal off - season. For PP, the supply - demand is weak, but the balance has improved significantly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of future maintenance plans [1]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures are oscillating weakly. The inland supply remains high, and the traditional demand is weak, with short - term pressure. Although the port inventory has decreased slightly, the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound. The key variables are the reduction rhythm of imported resources and the process of the risk premium fading caused by geopolitical factors [2]. Rubber Industry - Overseas raw material prices for natural rubber continue to decline, weakening the bottom support. The demand has increased slightly in some semi - steel tire foreign trade orders, and the inventory in China continues to accumulate. Considering that Thailand is about to enter the production - reduction period, the decline of raw materials is expected to be limited, and the rubber price is expected to be in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply - demand of pure benzene has improved marginally, but the port inventory is still high. Styrene is strong due to export and device accidents, and the spread between styrene and pure benzene has widened. Strategies include looking for short - selling opportunities for BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread at high levels. Styrene may face inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and its upside space is limited [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda futures are weakly oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand lacks substantial improvement, so the price is expected to be weak. PVC futures are oscillating downwards. The supply is high, the demand is affected by the festival, and the inventory continues to accumulate, so the price is expected to be weak with limited downside space [5]. Urea Industry - Urea futures have declined, and the supply is at a high level. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream agricultural demand and the resumption rhythm of devices [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, and the inventory is at a high level. Glass futures are affected by real - estate data, and the supply - demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the decline of the futures price [7]. Crude Oil Industry - Short - term oil prices are still affected by news, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Brent crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 US dollars per barrel. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [8]. LPG Industry - LPG futures prices have declined. The inventory has decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The overall market is affected by supply and demand [11]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to be high - level oscillating before the Spring Festival and low - level long - term treated in the medium term. PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it is expected to follow the raw materials. MEG is expected to accumulate a large amount of inventory, and the price is under pressure. Short - fiber is weakly oscillating following the raw materials. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to decline, and it follows the cost [13]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined to varying degrees [1]. - **Spreads**: The L59 spread has decreased, the PP59 spread has increased, and the LP05 spread has decreased [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of华东PP拉丝,华北LLDPE, and other products have declined [1]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate and downstream weighted operating rate have decreased, while the PP device operating rate has increased slightly, and the PP powder operating rate has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories have decreased [1]. Methanol Industry - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined [2]. - **Spreads**: The MA59 spread has increased significantly [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of methanol in various regions have declined [2]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory has increased slightly, while the port and social inventories have decreased [2]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates have decreased slightly, and the downstream MTO and other operating rates have changed to varying degrees [2]. Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of natural rubber products such as云南国营全乳胶 and泰标混合 rubber have declined, and the basis has changed [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads have changed [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. has changed, and the operating rates of automobile tires and the production and export of domestic tires have increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in China has continued to accumulate [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil and other products have changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and other products have also changed [4]. - **Benzene and Styrene Prices and Spreads**: The prices of benzene and styrene have increased, and the spreads between them have changed [4]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol and caprolactam have changed [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain have changed [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products have changed to varying degrees [5]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits have changed [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Positions**: The futures prices of urea have declined, and the positions of the top 20 long and short have changed [6]. - **Raw Material and Spot Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials and urea spot have changed [6]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of urea have changed [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizer have changed [6]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and operating rate of urea have changed [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash products and their spreads have changed [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: The operating rates, production, and inventory of glass and soda ash have changed [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil and their spreads have changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures and spot have declined, and the spreads have changed [11]. - **External Prices**: The external prices of LPG have declined slightly [11]. - **Inventory**: The LPG inventory has decreased [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream and downstream operating rates of LPG have changed [11]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products have changed [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain have changed [13].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 2026 年 1 月 20 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Tin - Short - term price is highly volatile due to market sentiment. After a sharp decline on Friday night, it's advisable to be cautious in the short - term. Consider a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [1]. Copper - In the long - term, the price bottom center is expected to rise due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. In the short - term, the price is strong because of global inventory structural imbalance and supply concerns. However, real terminal demand is weak. With the cooling of speculative sentiment and easing of tariff expectations, the price may return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to CL premium and LME inventory changes, with the main contract supported at 97500 - 98500 [3]. Nickel - Recent trading is centered around macro and Indonesian ore RKAB quota. Short - term ore news has limited further driving force. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 135000 - 145000 [5]. Zinc - The price is supported by domestic ore shortage and pressured by expected imported ore supply and negative demand feedback. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Focus on zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract supported around 23800 [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals show some resilience in the off - season. With a loose macro environment and strengthened supervision, there is resistance to further price increases. The market has intensified long - short divergence. The short - term market may adjust widely, with the main contract running between 140,000 - 150,000. Use short - term range trading [11]. Aluminum - Alumina prices lack upward momentum due to loose supply, weakening demand, and high inventory. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line, with the main contract in the range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to domestic inventory accumulation speed, downstream consumption resilience, and overseas monetary policies and geopolitical events [13]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term price range is limited. The ADC12 price is expected to continue high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Focus on raw material price changes, actual inflow of imported goods, and downstream pre - holiday inventory building [15]. Stainless Steel - Raw material news drives sentiment and strengthens cost support. Social inventory is steadily digested, but downstream demand in the off - season is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 13800 - 14500. Pay attention to ore news and downstream inventory building [18]. Polysilicon - The demand outlook has improved due to export - grabbing demand, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. The price is supported at 48,000 yuan/ton. Component production may increase, which is beneficial for inventory digestion. In the cooling period, it's advisable to wait and see, and focus on later production cuts and downstream demand recovery [20]. Industrial Silicon - The market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, with low - level oscillation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to supply - side production changes and potential further polysilicon production cuts [21]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.81% to 414050 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 78.57% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, and refined tin imports increased by 127.19%. In December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory increased by 37.69% to 9549 tons, and social inventory increased by 36.07% to 10175 tons [1]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.70% to 101855 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased significantly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80% to 117.81 million tons. In November, imports decreased by 3.90% [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased by 17.20% to 32.09 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 18.26% to 21.35 million tons [3]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.47% to 149350 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss decreased by 74.48% [5]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel increased by 1.09% to 112237 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory increased by 3.28% to 48180 tons, and LME inventory increased by 0.16% to 285732 tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 2.40% to 24800 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24% to 55.21 million tons. In November, exports increased by 402.59% [8]. - **Inventory**: Global visible inventory decreased slightly, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 0.08% to 11.84 million tons [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.63% to 158000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased significantly [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04% to 99200 tons, and demand decreased by 2.50% [11]. - **Inventory**: Total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 12.23% to 56664 tons in December [11]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.66% to 24030 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, alumina production increased by 1.08% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [13]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 3.08% to 73.60 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.41% to 48.8 million tons [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.42% to 23900 yuan/ton, and the scrap - to - refined price difference decreased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 6.16% to 64 million tons [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly to 4.89 million tons [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price decreased by 0.35% to 14350 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures price difference increased [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% to 171.93 million tons [18]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.47% to 45.07 million tons [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: N - type polysilicon average price increased slightly, and the basis of N - type material decreased by 23.52% [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 9.66% to 2.15 million tons, and monthly net exports increased significantly [20]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.29% to 32.1 million tons [20]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged, and the basis increased [21]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and exports increased by 21.78% [21]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 0.54% to 55.50 million tons [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View From the supply - demand perspective, demand expectations have improved due to the stimulus of export - rush demand. There are also expectations of production cuts on the supply side. The price has support at the 48,000 yuan/ton level after the decline. Component production scheduling may increase slightly, potentially exceeding 32GW, which is beneficial for digesting battery and silicon wafer inventories. Currently, polysilicon inventories are continuously increasing, but the output of silicon wafers and polysilicon shows an inverse relationship. Polysilicon production still has room to decline. The report suggests a wait - and - see approach during the cooling period, while paying attention to the implementation of production cuts and the recovery of downstream demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Spot and Futures Price Trends - **Spot**: The overall spot price of polysilicon has stabilized. The spot price of N - type re - feedstock has decreased, and the price gap between rod - shaped silicon and granular silicon has further narrowed. According to SMM, the quoted price of N - type re - feedstock is 54.85 yuan/kg, a 0.27% decline, and the price of N - type granular silicon is 54.35 yuan/kg, a 0.18% increase. According to Antaike, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock is 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 59,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of N - type granular silicon is 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 55,800 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [10][13]. - **Futures**: The futures market has shown a downward trend in oscillations and has support at the 48,000 yuan/ton level, rising to around 50,000 yuan/ton on Friday. The price difference between different contracts shows a certain pattern [6]. 3.2. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: In January 2026, against the backdrop of weak photovoltaic installation demand, polysilicon production is expected to decline to around 105,000 tons. Weekly production has decreased by 230 tons to 21,500 tons. According to the Silicon Industry Branch, the domestic polysilicon production in January 2026 is around 106,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 5%. Some leading enterprises will gradually shut down production in January for about half a year, and two other enterprises will implement significant production cuts. It is expected that the monthly production of polysilicon in the first quarter of 2026 will fall to the range of 70,000 - 90,000 tons [8][28]. - **Demand**: The demand side is still not optimistic, but attention should be paid to whether export - rush demand can drive the upward transmission of demand to the polysilicon sector. Currently, domestic demand is mediocre, but export demand has driven up component quotes. This week, the prices of components and battery cells have both increased. The price of battery cells has continued to rise by 3.85%, the price of components has increased steadily, with a distributed increase of about 3 - 6% and a centralized increase of about 1.3%. Silicon wafer production has increased slightly and inventory has decreased, possibly due to export - rush demand digesting inventory. The weekly production of silicon wafers is 10.83GW, an increase of 0.31GW, and the inventory is 24.78GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45GW. In January, the total production scheduling of battery cells has dropped to 39.36GW, of which TOPCON production scheduling is 33.48GW. The production scheduling of components in January has further decreased from 37GW to around 32GW, and export - rush demand may bring a rebound in component production scheduling. The domestic installation volume in December was about 20GW, and installation in January was weak [8][29][40]. 3.3. Cost - Profit Analysis The price of polysilicon remains high and volatile. The profitability of polysilicon production enterprises in Q4 2025 is highly likely to recover, but the overall profitability in Q1 2026 may decline. The increase in polysilicon price is conducive to the profit recovery of photovoltaic products, especially polysilicon. In Q3, enterprise profits turned positive from negative, but downstream demand has decreased significantly, and there is no obvious sign of recovery in Q1, so there is no expectation of continuous profit growth [66][68]. 3.4. Import - Export - In November 2025, the import volume of polysilicon was 105 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27%, the export volume was 320 tons, a month - on - month doubling, and the net export increased to 210 tons. - In November 2025, the import and export volumes of monocrystalline silicon wafers both decreased significantly, and the net export decreased by 540 tons. - In November, the export volume of battery cells increased by 20% month - on - month and doubled year - on - year, and the export of components rebounded by 3.6% month - on - month and increased by 23% year - on - year [71][79][83]. 3.5. Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Changes The polysilicon inventory has increased by 19,000 tons to 321,000 tons. This week, the warehouse receipts have increased by 130 lots to 4,560 lots, equivalent to 13,680 tons. Attention should be paid to whether export - rush demand can be transmitted to the polysilicon sector after digesting silicon wafer inventories [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices in a low-level oscillation. The supply in January may decline by 10,000 - 20,000 tons to 380,000 - 390,000 tons, and the demand is likely to decline slightly by about 10,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the supply decline and potential further production cuts in polysilicon. The polysilicon monthly output is expected to drop to 70,000 - 90,000 tons in Q1 2026. The market is still slightly oversupplied, and the industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The upper price is pressured when the arbitrage window opens, while the lower price is supported by costs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Go long at the lower end of the price range and try short at the upper end [5]. - **Arbitrage**: The current arbitrage window is closed. If the futures price rises and the arbitrage window opens, conduct a positive arbitrage [5]. - **Options**: Buy out-of-the-money call options at low prices [5]. 3.2 Market Overview - Spot prices are stable, futures prices are oscillating, basis prices are oscillating, and the arbitrage space is closed. As of January 16, SMM's East China oxygenated Si5530 silicon is priced at 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton, Si4410 at 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and Si4210 at 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. The market fundamentals are lackluster, with weak supply and demand. The downstream purchasing sentiment is average, and the outlook is not promising, so the market is expected to remain in a low-level oscillation [8]. 3.3 Supply - **Monthly Production**: In December 2025, the industrial silicon production slightly declined to 397,100 tons, with a cumulative production of 4.2678 million tons from January - December 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13%. In January 2026, the production is expected to further decline to 380,000 - 390,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5% according to SMM, mainly due to the reduction from the shutdown and maintenance of a small number of silicon furnaces in the north in December, partial production cuts by large factories in Xinjiang at the beginning of January, and marginal reductions in Sichuan, Yunnan and other regions [40]. - **Regional Production and Operating Rates**: The weekly production of Xinjiang sample silicon enterprises (with a capacity share of 79%) decreased to 41,680 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 86.01%. Yunnan sample silicon enterprises (30% capacity share) had a weekly production of 2,560 tons, with the operating rate remaining at 22.09%. Sichuan sample silicon enterprises (32% capacity share) had a weekly production of 0 tons, and the operating rate dropped to 0%. Northwest sample silicon enterprises (75% capacity share) had a weekly production of 11,875 tons, and the operating rate was 83%. The total production of the four regions was 55,900 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 640 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 1,420 tons. The decline in Xinjiang's production led to the overall month-on-month decline [46]. 3.4 Demand - **Polysilicon**: The spot trading center of polysilicon has moved up, and the price difference between rod-shaped silicon and granular silicon has further narrowed. The weekly production decreased by 230 tons to 21,500 tons. In January, the production is expected to further decline to about 105,000 tons. According to the Silicon Industry Branch, the monthly polysilicon production in Q1 2026 will drop to the range of 70,000 - 90,000 tons [54]. - **Silicon Wafers**: The weekly production of silicon wafers increased slightly, and the inventory decreased, possibly due to the rush for export demand to digest inventory [56]. - **Battery Cells and Components**: Silicon wafers are stable, battery cell prices continue to rise, and component prices are steadily increasing [61]. - **Organic Silicon**: After an agreement was reached at the organic silicon meeting, the weekly production slightly decreased to 45,200 tons. The DMC quotation increased to 13,700 - 14,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 250 yuan/ton, with mainly rigid demand purchases [68][74]. - **Aluminum Alloys**: The operating rates of aluminum alloys and recycled aluminum alloys remained unchanged, and the prices increased following the aluminum price. The production of aluminum alloys is expected to slightly increase from December to January, while exports are expected to decline. In December, affected by policy changes, the demand is expected to remain positive, but it may slightly decline in January [75][82][86]. - **Exports**: In November, the export volume of industrial silicon rebounded to 54,900 tons month-on-month. The export volume of primary polysiloxane in the organic silicon sector was 47,000 tons, and the aluminum alloy exports slightly declined but still had a significant year-on-year increase [89]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Raw Materials**: The prices of silica and petroleum coke have declined, while coal prices are expected to rise in the long term [98]. - **Electricity Prices**: In December, entering the dry season, electricity prices increased and are expected to remain high in January [102]. - **Cost**: The cost of Si5530 is about 9,800 - 12,500 yuan/ton, and the cost of Si4210 is about 10,100 - 12,800 yuan/ton [106]. - **Profit**: The profit is still fluctuating around the break - even point [111]. 3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts increased by 395 lots to 11,283 lots this week, equivalent to 56,400 tons. The social inventory totaled 555,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons. The factory inventory increased by 4,200 tons to 207,500 tons, and the total inventory was about 820,000 tons [119].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market will be more affected by U.S. economic data's impact on Fed policy expectations and geopolitical situations. In the short term, the influence of news will weaken, and the market will maintain a strong and volatile trend with reduced fluctuations. Gold long - positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held, and selling out - of - the - money put options can earn time value [1] - For silver, the short - term suspension of the 232 investigation tariff in the U.S. and the exchange's position - limit measures have eased capital sentiment. The price may enter a high - level consolidation phase. It is recommended to wait for the market volatility to decline and then buy on dips, or sell out - of - the money options to earn volatility - reduction returns [1] - Under the influence of strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals, platinum will fluctuate strongly in the short term but with a narrowing range. Platinum futures are recommended to be traded with high - selling and low - buying around the 20 - day moving average, with a fluctuation range of 587 - 640 yuan. Palladium performs weaker than platinum, and out - of - the money call options above 510 yuan can be sold [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1032.32 yuan/gram on January 16, down 2.88 yuan (-0.28%) from January 15 [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 22483 yuan/kilogram on January 16, down 182 yuan (-0.80%) from January 15 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 610.05 yuan/gram on January 16, up 1 yuan (0.16%) from January 15 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 469.35 yuan on January 16, down 9.25 yuan (-1.93%) from January 15 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4601.10 dollars/ounce on January 16, down 19.40 dollars (-0.42%) from January 15 [1] - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 89.05 dollars/ounce on January 16, down 2.27 dollars (-2.46%) from January 15 [1] - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2342.90 dollars/ounce on January 16, down 72.90 dollars (-3.02%) from January 15 [1] - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1846.50 dollars/ounce on January 16, down 19 dollars (-1.02%) from January 15 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4599.04 dollars/ounce, down 16.48 dollars (-0.36%) from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 90.13 dollars/ounce, down 2.26 dollars (-2.45%) from the previous value [1] - Spot platinum was at 2301 dollars/ounce, down 85 dollars (-3.56%) from the previous value [1] - Spot palladium was at 1755 dollars/ounce, down 51 dollars (-2.82%) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1031.09 yuan/gram, down 2.83 yuan (-0.27%) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 22641 yuan/kilogram, down 43 yuan (-0.19%) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 602 yuan/gram, up 5 yuan (0.85%) from the previous value [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 1.23, up 0.05 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was 158, up 139 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - London gold - COMEX gold was - 2.06, up 2.92 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 92.90% [1] - London silver - COMEX silver was 0.19, unchanged from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 90.00% [1] Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver was 51.15, up 1.05 (2.09%) from the previous value [1] - SHFE gold/silver was 45.92, up 0.24 (0.53%) from the previous value [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.27, down 0.03 (-2.02%) from the previous value [1] - SHFE platinum/palladium was 1.30, up 0.03 (2.14%) from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.24%, up 0.07% (1.7%) from the previous value [1] - 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 3.59%, up 0.03% (0.8%) from the previous value [1] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.91%, up 0.03% (1.6%) from the previous value [1] - U.S. dollar index was 99.37, up 0.03 (0.03%) from the previous value [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9674, up 0.0043 (0.06%) from the previous value [1] Inventories and Positions - SHFE gold inventory was 100053, down 99 (-0.10%) from the previous value [1] - SHFE silver inventory was 626843, down 11556 (-1.81%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 36135901, up 3000 (0.01%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 429156441, down 4225669 (-0.98%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 18823797, down 14274 (-0.08%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 120632557, down 2571966 (-2.09%) from the previous value [1] - SPDR gold ETF position was 1086, up 10.87 (1.01%) from the previous value [1] - SLV silver ETF position was 16073, up 11.28 (0.07%) from the previous value [1]