Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Views - **Precious Metals**: For gold, due to the Middle - East situation and US non - farm data's impact on Fed's rate - cut expectations, it's recommended to wait and see in the short - term and sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies. For silver, the long - term logic of rising prices still holds, but short - term factors limit the upside, and selling out - of - the - money call options is advised. Platinum and palladium prices are supported but dragged by gold and silver, showing weak short - term oscillations [3] - **Container Shipping**: The ongoing Middle - East conflict has more of an emotional impact than a fundamental one on the EC2604 contract of container shipping European routes and affects the ship scheduling from May to July. The implementation of price hikes during the off - season is the key trading focus, and the market volatility is expected to increase [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Date**: March 5, 2026 - **Data**: Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentile data of various stock index futures spreads such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including inter - period spreads and inter - variety ratios [1] 2. Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Date**: March 4, 2026 - **Data**: Provides data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures, including the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and historical percentile data [2] 3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Date**: March 4, 2026 - **Domestic Futures**: AU2604, AG2604, PT2606, and PD2606 contracts showed price declines, with AG2604 having a significant - 11.40% drop [3] - **Foreign Futures**: COMEX gold, silver, NYMEX platinum, and palladium futures all declined, with NYMEX platinum dropping - 9.87% [3] - **Spot Prices**: London gold, silver, platinum, and palladium spot prices also decreased, along with domestic spot precious metals prices [3] - **Price Differences and Ratios**: Data on price differences between spot and futures and price ratios of different precious metals are provided [3] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield, 2 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate all had slight upward changes [3] - **Inventory and Positions**: Some inventories such as COMEX gold and silver decreased, while SLV silver ETF positions increased slightly [3] 4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Date**: March 3, 2026 - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates of some shipping companies like CMA CGM increased significantly [5] - **Container Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European and US West routes) decreased, while SCFI comprehensive and sub - indexes increased [5] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC2604 - EC2612 contracts all increased, and the basis of the main contract decreased significantly [5] - **Fundamentals**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged, Shanghai port on - time rate decreased, monthly export amount increased, and some overseas economic indicators showed slight changes [5] 5. Capital Flow and Key Seats' Position Change Daily Report - Information on capital inflow and outflow of varieties and the position changes of key seats is presented, but specific data is not clearly extracted from the text [6]

1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are mentioned in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The black metal market shows narrow - range fluctuations with low volatility. The short - term export expectation of steel is weak due to the US - Iran conflict, and the upcoming Two Sessions may affect the demand - side expectation. Although steel valuation is not high, the upward demand expectation is not strong. Pay attention to the support levels of 3020 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coil [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The short - term supply pressure still suppresses the iron ore price, and concerns about finished product exports may cause disturbances. The iron ore price may fluctuate widely in the range of 730 - 770. Pay attention to the recovery of terminal demand and the policies of the Two Sessions [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the short - term price is stable. The US - Iran conflict drives up energy commodities, leading to a rebound in coal - coke futures. It is recommended to view it with caution, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800. For coking coal, it is also recommended to view it as fluctuating upward with caution, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150 [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the short - term supply is tight. The price may face pressure when it rebounds to the export cost. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. For silicomanganese, the short - term price driver comes from manganese ore, and it is recommended to consider the 5 - 9 positive spread [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts show different changes. For example, the rebar 05 contract increased by 7 yuan/ton, while the hot - rolled coil 01 contract decreased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while the cost of some steel products increased, and the profit of some products decreased. For example, the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase), and the output of five major steel products decreased by 8.0 to 796.8 (-1.0% decrease). The inventory of five major steel products increased by 134.3 to 1846.1 (7.8% increase) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.8 to 5.2 (17.4% increase), and the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 29.0 to 564.7 (5.4% increase). However, the apparent demand of rebar decreased by 7.6 to 33.6 (-18.5% decrease) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, with a decline of about 0.1%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 20.5 (-2.4% decrease), and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.5 to 13.5 (12.5% increase) [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 19.8 to 3340.7 (0.6% increase) on a weekly basis, and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 5.5 to 2146.9 (-0.3% decrease). The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase), and the 45 - port daily average desilting volume decreased by 52.7 to 298.5 (-15.0% decrease) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 145.6 to 17091.96 (0.9% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1618.8 to 9085.1 (-15.1% decrease) [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices increased, such as the coke 05 contract increasing by 42 to 1694 (2.5% increase). Coking coal futures prices also increased, like the coking coal 05 contract increasing by 33 to 1127 (3.0% increase) [7]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6 to 64.3 (0.9% increase), and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase) [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 7.9 to 980.0 (-0.8% decrease), and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 80.2 to 1079.1 (-7.4% decrease) [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The ferrosilicon main - contract closing price increased by 22 to 5786 (0.44% increase), and the silicomanganese main - contract closing price increased. Some spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also changed slightly [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 17 to 6036.6 (0.3% increase), and the production profit of some regions changed. The manganese ore price showed different trends, with the South African semi - carbonate showing a relatively strong performance [8]. Supply and Demand - The weekly ferrosilicon output increased by 0.9 to 9.8 (0.6% increase), and the weekly silicomanganese product increased by 0.4 to 19.7 (1.8% increase). The iron ore demand increased with the increase in pig iron output [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.1 to 7.0 (-1.6% decrease), and the inventory of 63 sample silicomanganese enterprises increased by 0.4 to 39.8 (0.9% increase) [8].

1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term: Copper prices are expected to be affected by factors such as incomplete downstream复产 after the domestic festival, continuous inventory accumulation at home and abroad, and non - expanding CL premium. In March, the electrolytic copper production is expected to remain high, with a phased mismatch between supply and demand, continuous inventory accumulation, low spot premiums, and limited price upward drive. The risk to focus on is the narrowing of the CL premium. - Medium - to long - term: The copper fundamentals are still good. There are capital expenditure constraints on the supply side, and AI is expected to bring incremental demand for power grid upgrade and transformation. The center of copper prices is expected to gradually rise. Short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract is recommended to pay attention to the support around 100,000 yuan/ton [2]. Zinc - The zinc fundamentals are generally good. The shortage pattern in the mine end has improved, and the domestic zinc mine TC has bottomed out. After March, with the resumption of domestic mines, TC may have a slight rebound space. The smelting profit may be repaired, and the refined zinc output is expected to remain high. - The demand is weak due to seasonal factors, and the downstream enterprises are in the process of resuming production. The terminal procurement demand is weak, and the spot trading is still average. The inventory has room for replenishment as the peak - season demand recovers. However, if the downstream复产 in the peak season fails to meet expectations, the domestic inventory pressure may suppress the zinc price. The main contract is recommended to pay attention to the support around 23,800 yuan/ton [4]. Nickel - Recently, macro uncertainties have increased, and there have been continuous disturbances in the mine end, providing strong support for raw materials. However, weak demand and high inventory are the main constraints. The bottom support is strong, but the upward drive is limited. The nickel price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, with the main contract running between 134,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [6]. Stainless Steel - Overseas macro risks are uncertain, while domestic policy expectations are strong. Steel mills are expected to reduce production, but demand boost and inventory digestion are still insufficient. The cost and demand of stainless steel are in continuous game. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract running between 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Geopolitical conflicts have increased market uncertainties and magnified macro risks. The lithium carbonate price is over - valued, and funds are flowing to the oil - chemical and precious - metal sectors. The new energy trading momentum is weak, and there has been a significant net outflow of funds. The price is currently driven by sentiment, and the macro risks have strengthened the risk - aversion mentality of funds. The price may be adjusted in the short term, and the main contract's operating range is lowered to 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to open new long positions in the short term, and the previous long positions can be protected by options [10]. Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand sides have not changed much, but attention should be paid to the impact of the expanding Middle - East geopolitical conflict on export demand. In March, both supply and demand are expected to be strong. The cost provides support for the futures price. It is recommended to hold long positions around 8,200 yuan/ton cautiously and pay attention to reducing or closing positions [11]. Polysilicon - The supply and demand sides have not changed much, but attention should be paid to the impact of the expanding Middle - East geopolitical conflict on market risk appetite and export demand. If the downstream battery and component enterprises resume production and increase production significantly, and the terminal photovoltaic installation demand is released, the polysilicon procurement demand is expected to pick up, and the inventory pressure will be relieved. The futures market is expected to stabilize and rebound. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Tin - The long - term upward logic of tin prices still exists. The supply of tin ore has increased, and the downstream demand is expected to gradually recover, but the high price may suppress the demand recovery rhythm. Affected by the tense situation between the US and Iran, the market risk - aversion sentiment has impacted the price, and the tin price has dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait for the sentiment to stabilize before entering the market [15][16]. Aluminum - Alumina: The price is expected to continue to oscillate widely, with the main contract running between 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. The key to whether the market can build a bottom lies in whether the industry profit pressure can trigger more substantial production cuts or whether there are more explicit capacity - control policies. Attention should also be paid to the changes in warehouse receipts and the operation of new capacities in Guangxi. - Aluminum: In the short term, the macro situation is the key variable, and trading should be cautious to prevent short - term price retracement due to profit - taking. In the long term, the supply increment elasticity at home and abroad is limited, the global supply - demand balance pattern remains, and the long - term upward logic of aluminum prices remains unchanged. The short - term operating range of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is expected to be 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday inventory inflection point and downstream resumption progress [18]. Aluminum Alloy - In the short term, the market will continue to oscillate in a range under the situation of weak supply and demand, with the main contract running between 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton. The key turning point in the post - holiday market lies in whether the downstream resumption rhythm and order recovery can match the supply increase speed and the improvement of scrap - aluminum circulation. If the terminal orders increase significantly and the primary aluminum is strongly driven by the macro factors, the ADC12 price still has room for further increase [19]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper, and SMM wet - process copper have all decreased, with daily declines of - 0.51%, - 0.14%, and - 0.49% respectively. The refined - scrap price difference has increased by 5.66%. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.13% month - on - month, and in December, the import volume decreased by 4.02% month - on - month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 5.40% week - on - week, the electrolytic copper rod production start - up rate increased by 6.42 percentage points, and the recycled copper rod production start - up rate decreased by 5.20 percentage points. The domestic social inventory, bonded - area inventory, and SHFE inventory have all increased, with week - on - week increases of 10.13%, 0.30%, and 43.69% respectively [2]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.12%, and the price of SMM 0 zinc ingot in Guangdong increased by 0.16%. The import loss decreased by 36.38 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the refined zinc production decreased by 9.99% month - on - month. In December, the import volume decreased by 51.94% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 36.32% month - on - month. The galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide production start - up rates have all increased. The domestic zinc - ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 21.41% week - on - week, and the LME inventory decreased by 1.45% [4]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Duochuan nickel, and 1 imported nickel have all decreased, with daily declines of - 0.99%, - 1.10%, and - 1.01% respectively. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 9.06%. The futures import profit increased by 90.07%. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 7.59% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 84.63% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory and social inventory increased by 3.43% and 2.73% week - on - week respectively [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.34%. The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) increased by 4.96%. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel decreased by 27.89% month - on - month, and the production of Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel increased by 0.36% month - on - month. The stainless - steel import volume increased by 29.32% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 19.65% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 15.95% week - on - week [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate, SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide have all decreased. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 5.93%. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the lithium carbonate production decreased by 15.13% month - on - month, and the demand decreased by 10.57% month - on - month. In December, the import volume increased by 8.77% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 20.11% month - on - month. The overall inventory decreased by 4.76% month - on - month [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The prices of East - China oxygen - permeated S15530 industrial silicon and Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 0.55% and 0.58% respectively. The main - contract futures price decreased by 1.44%. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production decreased by 26.58% month - on - month. The Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan production decreased by 32.24%, 24.58%, and 70.87% respectively. The national start - up rate decreased by 21.33% month - on - month. The organic silicon DMC production decreased by 15.06% month - on - month, and the polysilicon production decreased by 23.61% month - on - month. The industrial silicon export volume decreased by 100.00% month - on - month [11]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The main - contract futures price decreased by 2.74%. The N - type silicon - chip 210mm average price decreased by 0.72%. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 1.49% to 1.98 million tons, and the silicon - chip production increased by 12.94% to 11.35GW. The monthly polysilicon production decreased by 23.61% to 7.70 million tons, and the import volume and export volume both decreased by 100.00% [13]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin decreased by 4.85% and 4.84% respectively. The import loss increased by 5.13%. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the tin ore import volume increased by 16.81%. In February, the SMM refined tin production decreased by 23.91%. The SHEF inventory and social inventory increased by 11.25% and 15.26% respectively [15]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze River aluminum A00 increased by 1.40% and 1.44% respectively. The electrolytic aluminum import loss increased by 337.2 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the alumina production decreased by 10.63% month - on - month, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 8.91% month - on - month. The aluminum - profile, aluminum - cable, and aluminum - plate production start - up rates have all increased. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 10.92% week - on - week, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.43% [18]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 and other varieties increased by about 1.26%. The Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 - A00 price difference decreased by 13.64%. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the recycled - aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 4.69% month - on - month, and the primary - aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 30.99% month - on - month. The recycled - aluminum alloy production start - up rate decreased by 4.06% week - on - week. The recycled - aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory decreased by 0.23% [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Black metals are trading in a narrow range with low volatility. The short - term export outlook for steel is weak due to the Iran - US conflict affecting shipping routes to the Persian Gulf. The upcoming Two Sessions may also interfere with demand expectations. Iron - water production is rising, and the inventory pressure is controllable. Raw material supply is abundant, and weak raw material prices may drag down steel prices. The reference support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils are around 3020 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures main contract is oscillating. The 5 - 9 positive spread has widened significantly. Supply pressure persists as global iron ore shipments have increased and port arrivals are falling. Iron - water production is rising, but the resumption of production may be affected by the Two Sessions. The terminal demand recovery needs verification. The inventory situation requires attention. Short - term ore prices may fluctuate widely in the range of 730 - 770 [4]. Coke - Coke futures are oscillating upwards. The coking profit has recovered to near the break - even point after the price increase. After the holiday, coke production has increased slightly, and steel mills' iron - water production has rebounded from a low level. The overall inventory is slightly lower. Short - term coke prices are stable, and there are policy expectations during the Two Sessions. It is recommended to be cautious, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800 [7]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures are oscillating upwards. The spot price in Shanxi is weak, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuate with the futures. After the holiday, the demand for restocking is weak. Coal mines are resuming production, and the port inventory is high. The overall inventory is seasonally decreasing. It is recommended to view it with a slightly bullish bias and operate cautiously, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150 [7]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon main contract continues to rise slightly. After the holiday, supply has increased slightly but remains at a low level compared to historical periods. Iron - water production is rising, and overall post - holiday demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, and the total inventory is moderately high. Short - term supply is tight, and price fluctuations are expected to intensify. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese main contract continues to rise. Manganese ore prices are strong, driving up the transaction price of silicomanganese. Supply has increased slightly, and iron - water production is rising. The overall post - holiday demand will continue to improve marginally. Manganese ore port inventory has increased significantly. The short - term price driver comes from manganese ore, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider the 5 - 9 positive spread [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions remained unchanged, while some futures contracts had small price changes. For example, the rebar 05 contract rose by 7 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract fell by 14 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average iron - water production increased by 2.8 to 233.3, a 1.2% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased by 8.0 to 796.8, a 1.0% decrease. Rebar production decreased by 5.3 to 165.1, a 3.1% decrease [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 134.3 to 1846.1, a 7.8% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 84.6 to 800.6, an 11.8% increase, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 18.3 to 452.2, a 4.2% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.8 to 5.2, a 17.4% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 29.0 to 564.7, a 5.4% increase. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 7.6 to 33.6, an 18.5% decrease, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 21.6 to 268.4, an 8.8% increase [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, with a decline of about 0.1%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 20.5, a 2.4% decrease, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.5 to 13.5, a 12.5% increase [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrivals decreased by 5.5 to 2146.9, a 0.3% decrease. The global shipments increased by 19.8 to 3340.7, a 0.6% increase. The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 to 11964.7, an 8.2% increase [4]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average iron - water production increased by 2.8 to 233.3, a 1.2% increase. The 45 - port daily average dredging volume decreased by 52.7 to 298.5, a 15.0% decrease. The national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 162.1 to 6072.2, a 2.6% decrease, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 169.4 to 6817.7, a 2.4% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 145.6 to 17091.96, a 0.9% increase. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased by 1618.8 to 9085.1, a 15.1% decrease. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 7.0 to 23.0, a 23.3% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - Coke futures prices increased. The coking profit improved. The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6 to 64.3, a 0.9% increase, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average production decreased by 0.1 to 47.1, a 0.3% decrease. The total coke inventory decreased by 7.9 to 980.0, a 0.8% decrease [7]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures prices increased. The Mongolian coal price increased by 29 to 1181, a 2.5% increase. The daily average production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased significantly. The total coking coal inventory decreased seasonally [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon main contract price increased. The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased by 17 to 6036.6, a 0.3% increase. The weekly production increased by 0.1 to 0.9, a 0.6% increase. The demand decreased by 0.3 to 18, a 1.8% decrease. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.1 to 7.0, a 1.6% decrease [8]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese main contract price increased. The manganese ore price was strong. The weekly production increased by 0.4 to 19.7, a 1.8% increase. The demand decreased by 0.1 to 11.0, a 1.3% decrease. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.4 to 39.8, a 0.9% increase [8].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For the Middle - East turmoil, if the US successfully destroys the Iranian regime, it may boost the US dollar and put pressure on precious metals after a short - term positive impact. If the US fails to achieve its goal quickly and drags the Middle - East into long - term turmoil, precious metals may have greater upside potential. This week, one should closely monitor the Middle - East situation and the impact of US non - farm data on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Gold is seeking support at the 20 - day moving average, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term while selling out - of - the - money call options to protect long positions [1]. - For silver, the long - term logic of rising prices driven by supply inventory shortages and strong investment demand still holds. However, short - term exchange rule adjustments reduce physical delivery demand, and cautious capital attitudes limit upward momentum. The price shows a multi - week oscillation, with the moving average converging and volatility falling. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to earn time value [1]. - For platinum and palladium, supported by their macro - financial attributes and a tight supply outlook, with stable industrial demand and slightly increasing investment demand, prices generally have support, but they are dragged down by gold and silver and maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1182.00 yuan/gram on March 3, down 15.22 yuan or 1.27% from March 2 [1]. - AG2604 contract closed at 21645 yuan/kilogram on March 3, down 2786 yuan or 11.40% from March 2 [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 570.30 yuan/gram on March 3, down 56.20 yuan or 8.97% from March 2 [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 433.90 yuan/gram on March 3, down 29.75 yuan or 6.42% from March 2 [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at 5099.50 on March 3, down 236.40 or 4.43% from March 2 [1]. - COMEX silver main contract closed at 82.30 on March 3, down 7.31 or 8.16% from March 2 [1]. - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at 2089.70 dollars/ounce on March 3, down 228.90 or 9.87% from March 2 [1]. - NYMEX palladium main contract closed at 1672.00 on March 3, down 129.50 or 7.19% from March 2 [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 5088.33, down 233.10 or 4.38% from the previous value [1]. - London silver was at 82.00, down 7.26 or 8.13% from the previous value [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2114.00 dollars/ounce, down 215.00 or 9.23% from the previous value [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1645.50, down 122.75 or 6.94% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1181.56 yuan/gram, down 17.95 or 1.50% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 21427 yuan/kilogram, down 2525 or 10.54% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 571 yuan/gram, down 35 or 5.85% from the previous value [1]. Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was - 0.44, down 2.73 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1]. - Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 218, up 261 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1]. - London gold - COMEX gold was - 18.14, up 2.12 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 44.20% [1]. - London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.63, up 0.06 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 6.60% [1]. Bid Prices - COMEX gold/silver was 61.96, up 2.42 or 4.06% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver was 54.61, up 5.60 or 11.44% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX gold/silver was 1.25, down 0.04 or - 2.89% from the previous day [1]. - Guangzhou Futures Exchange gold/silver was 1.31, down 0.04 or - 2.73% from the previous day [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06, up 0.01 or 0.2% from the previous day [1]. - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.51, up 0.04 or 1.2% from the previous day [1]. - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.77, up 0.01 or 0.6% from the previous day [1]. - US dollar index was 99.06, up 0.51 or 0.52% from the previous day [1]. - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9175, up 0.0164 or 0.24% from the previous day [1]. Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 105060, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 307484 kilograms, down 1952 or - 0.63% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold inventory was 33071598, down 99538 or - 0.30% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver inventory was 355173837, down 2391537 or - 0.67% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 17021190, down 13903 or - 0.08% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 87985493, down 790368 or - 0.89% from the previous value [1]. - SPDR gold ETF position was 1089, down 2.29 or - 0.21% from the previous value [1]. - SLV silver ETF position was 15981, up 79.15 or 0.50% from the previous value [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. Core Views Polyolefins - The spot market of polyolefins was strong, with upstream ex - factory prices up by 400 yuan/ton. The Middle East geopolitical situation pushed up international oil prices, boosting the market from the cost side. The supply of polyethylene was at a high level, and the losses of oil - based and naphtha - based production routes increased. The resumption of PDH units of polypropylene was slow due to planned maintenance in March and rising raw material prices. The demand side was affected by the Spring Festival, with downstream factory operating rates at a seasonal low. The industry profit was in a historically low range, but the market had strong expectations for post - holiday restocking demand. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of cost support and the actual recovery of downstream operating rates [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures continued to rise and hit the daily limit. The Middle East conflict restricted Iranian methanol exports, leading to concerns about global supply disruptions. Domestically, the operating rate remained high, but imports were affected by the conflict, and the March arrival volume would decline significantly. The demand side was weak, with poor olefin demand at ports and delayed start - up of new MTO units. The port inventory was at a medium - high level, with expectations of destocking. The current price was driven by geopolitical sentiment, and attention should be paid to the actual progress of the conflict and the port destocking rhythm [4]. Urea - The urea futures fluctuated and rose, and the spot price remained stable. The daily production of urea was close to 220,000 tons, with sufficient short - term supply, and the holiday inventory accumulation put pressure on the price. The agricultural fertilizer demand continued to advance, while the industrial demand was average. Affected by the war, international urea prices rose significantly, which might drive up the domestic urea market, but the increase might be limited under the supply guarantee policy and high supply. In the short term, the urea price was expected to remain high, and the main contract was expected to be in the range of 1800 - 1900. Attention should be paid to downstream demand and inventory accumulation [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda futures fluctuated strongly, and the spot price was stable. The supply was expected to increase as downstream chlorine - consuming industries resumed work, increasing inventory pressure. The demand from the alumina industry was stable, and non - aluminum demand improved. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali enterprises was repaired, and the industry load was expected to increase. The short - term market was expected to fluctuate and adjust. - The PVC futures fluctuated higher, and the spot price rose. The cost of bulk commodities was pushed up by the geopolitical conflict. The PVC supply remained high, domestic demand was normal, and foreign trade exports faced risks. The cost transmission from crude oil - ethylene - PVC was uncertain, and the short - term PVC price was expected to continue to rise, but the increase was uncertain due to fundamental and long - term uncertainties [7]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose, with the main contract PG2603 up 3.67%. The Middle East geopolitical situation affected the LPG market. The refinery inventory ratio and port inventory increased. The upstream refinery operating rate remained stable, while the downstream PDH operating rate decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors on the LPG market [8]. Natural Rubber - The supply side had cost support as overseas raw material prices continued to rise, and Thailand's rubber production decreased in January. The demand side was affected by the Middle East situation, with shipping to the Middle East suspended, increasing export resistance. The demand side dragged down the rubber price, and it was recommended to leave long positions and consider going long again around 16000 [10]. Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash futures fluctuated weakly and rose at the end. The supply side had high - level production, and the demand side was mainly in a wait - and - see state. The inventory increased significantly. The fundamentals of supply exceeding demand continued, and it was recommended to short at high prices or wait and see, with a reference price around 1200. - The glass futures fluctuated weakly and rose at the end. The supply side had low - level production, and the demand side was affected by bad weather and environmental protection policies, with delayed resumption of work. The inventory increased seasonally. It was recommended to short at high prices or wait and see, with a reference high point around 1075, and pay attention to macro and inventory changes [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply of pure benzene was expected to decrease due to the impact of geopolitical factors on refinery operations and maintenance plans. The downstream styrene industry had good profits, and the demand was strong in the short term. However, due to high port inventory and import pressure, the price of pure benzene followed the fluctuations of oil prices and downstream styrene. It was recommended to reduce long positions at high levels and short the EB - BZ spread at high levels. - The styrene industry had good profits, and the factory load increased. The supply in March was expected to increase slightly, and the demand was expected to pick up after the holiday. The short - term styrene price was expected to be strong, and it was recommended to reduce long positions at high levels and short the EB04 - BZ04 spread at high levels [14]. Crude Oil - The crude oil prices rose significantly. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran increased the risk premium of crude oil. If the risk continued to spread or the Strait of Hormuz was blocked for a long time, the oil price would continue to rise; if the conflict eased, the oil price would face the risk of a premium pull - back. The freight rate increase led to a rise in the SC futures delivery cost, and the domestic premium increased. It was recommended to hold long positions cautiously [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply was expected to decrease due to refinery maintenance and geopolitical factors, and the demand from downstream PTA units increased. The short - term PX price was expected to be strong, and it was recommended to reduce long positions at high levels and pay attention to oil price trends. - The PTA load increased after the holiday, but the inventory was expected to increase in February. The PTA processing margin was compressed, and the short - term PTA price was driven by the cost side. It was recommended to reduce long positions at high levels and pay attention to oil price trends. - The supply of ethylene glycol was expected to decrease in March, and the demand was expected to pick up seasonally. It was recommended to go long on the EG5 - 9 spread at low levels. - The short - fiber market was weak in both supply and demand. The short - term short - fiber price followed the raw material price, and it was recommended to pay attention to the cost transmission to the downstream. - The supply of polyester bottle chips was expected to increase in March, and the demand was expected to be weak. The bottle chip price followed the cost side, and the processing margin was expected to decline. It was recommended to short the PR main - contract processing margin at high levels and buy call options at low levels [18]. Summary by Directory Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 closing prices all rose on March 3, with increases of 2.99%, 1.58%, 3.22%, and 2.12% respectively. The spot prices of East China PP拉丝 and North China LDPE also increased, with increases of 4.35% and 4.41% respectively [1]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased significantly, with increases of 68.66% and 89.14% respectively. The social inventory of PE also increased by 12.65% [1]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 7.98%. The PP device operating rate decreased slightly, while the powder operating rate increased by 9.18%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 30.3% [1]. Methanol - **Prices**: MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices rose on March 3, with increases of 8.12% and 3.84% respectively. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang also increased [4]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased, with increases of 57.30%, 1.01%, and 11.82% respectively [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The domestic upstream operating rate decreased slightly, while the overseas upstream operating rate increased by 6.98%. The downstream MTO device operating rate remained unchanged, and the formaldehyde operating rate increased by 24.12% [4]. Urea - **Prices**: The urea futures fluctuated and rose, and the spot price remained stable. The main contract closed at 1819 yuan/ton, up 0.11% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production of urea was close to 220,000 tons, and the short - term supply was sufficient. The agricultural fertilizer demand continued to advance, while the industrial demand was average [6]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory and port inventory increased, with increases of 14.13% and 4.82% respectively [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: The prices of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC and ethylene - based PVC increased on March 3, with increases of 1.1% and 2.0% respectively. The caustic soda price remained stable [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of caustic soda was expected to increase as downstream chlorine - consuming industries resumed work, and the demand from the alumina industry was stable. The PVC supply remained high, and domestic demand was normal, while foreign trade exports faced risks [7]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda factory inventory increased by 22.1%, and the PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory decreased slightly [7]. LPG - **Prices**: The LPG futures prices rose, with the main contract PG2603 up 3.67%. The spot prices of South China civil gas and deliverable spot also increased [8]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery inventory ratio and port inventory increased, with increases of 11.94% and 5.95% respectively [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream refinery operating rate remained stable, while the downstream PDH operating rate decreased slightly [8]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber increased by 0.30%, and the full - latex basis increased by 103.37% [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side had cost support, and Thailand's rubber production decreased in January. The demand side was affected by the Middle East situation, with shipping to the Middle East suspended, increasing export resistance [10]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased by 1.82%, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 0.40% [10]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: The glass and soda ash futures prices rose on March 3. The glass 2605 and 2609 closing prices increased by 1.05% and 1.39% respectively, and the soda ash 2605 and 2609 closing prices increased by 2.53% and 1.92% respectively [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash supply was at a high level, and the demand was mainly in a wait - and - see state. The glass supply was at a low level, and the demand was affected by bad weather and environmental protection policies [13]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory and soda ash factory inventory increased significantly, with increases of 37.32% and 19.29% respectively [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR China pure benzene increased on March 3, with increases of 4.7%, 4.7%, and 5.1% respectively. The prices of styrene East China spot and EB futures also increased [14]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased slightly, and the styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 11.1% [14]. - **Operating Rates**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate remained unchanged, and the domestic pure benzene, hydrogenated benzene, and styrene operating rates increased [14]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices rose on March 3, with increases of 4.71%, 4.67%, and 10.06% respectively [15]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 all changed significantly [15]. - **Outlook**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran increased the risk premium of crude oil. The oil price was affected by geopolitical factors, and it was recommended to hold long positions cautiously [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha increased. The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY also increased [18]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory increased by 2.0% [18]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products all changed to varying degrees [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a high - level volatile consolidation, with a chance to rise to 4,200 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures may test the 9,000 - yuan mark. - In the soybean oil market, geopolitical conflicts boost CBOT soybean oil, but domestic demand is weak, and the basis quote is lowered. Factory soybean oil inventory is decreasing. - For rapeseed oil, geopolitical conflicts drive up oil prices, and domestic rapeseed oil follows the upward trend. There is a risk of stagnant growth after a sharp rise, and the spot market has limited transactions [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures continue to decline, and the 67 - cent - per - pound level may face pressure. In the domestic market, the supply side is supported by the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the decline of commercial inventory, but the slow resumption of downstream factories and large internal - external price differences restrict the upward space. In the long - term, the overall price may run stronger [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar prices rise but the bullish sentiment is limited. Brazilian sugar production is close to expectations, and the dry weather has brought uncertainty to the 26/27 season. Indian sugar production is expected to be reduced, and Thai sugar production may be revised down. In the domestic market, the 1 - month production and sales data slowed down, and the short - term bearish factors have been fully traded, with the market relatively resistant to decline [3]. Red Dates - The red dates market in the 25/26 production season has an oversupply pattern. The futures market is expected to fluctuate in a low - valuation range, with a small - scale rebound limited by hedging and inventory pressure [4]. Apples - The apple market is active, with a shortage of high - quality apples. The price of ordinary apples is stable. The inventory in cold storage is decreasing. The short - term price is supported by low inventory and high - quality fruit rate [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the corn market, the supply in the Northeast is tight, and the price is firm. In North China, the price is strong due to supply - demand imbalance. The demand side has limited enthusiasm for replenishment. The short - term price is in a high - level volatile state, and may face pressure in the future [8]. Meal - US soybeans are in a high - level volatile state. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by external factors, but the domestic supply is loose, and the basis is falling. The market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile state [9]. Pigs - After the Spring Festival, the supply of pigs is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market is under pressure, and the spot price is weak. The market is waiting for secondary fattening to support the price, but the upward space is limited [13]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is slowly decreasing, but there is inventory pressure. The market is in a off - season, and the price is expected to be in a weak - volatile state [15]. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats - **Spot Prices**: On March 3, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all increased compared to the previous day, with increases of 0.58%, 0.79%, and 0.38% respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The futures prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil also rose, with increases of 1.09%, 1.08%, and 1.12% respectively [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreased, while the basis of palm oil decreased significantly [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different degrees of change [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.20%, while the price of cotton 2609 decreased by 0.03%. The ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 1.16% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various spot indexes of cotton decreased to different degrees [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The trade volume decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory increased by 3.8%, the import volume increased by 49.5%, and the inventory in bonded areas increased by 15% [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2605 and sugar 2609 decreased by 0.45% and 0.39% respectively. The ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.14% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of sugar in Nanning and Kunming changed slightly, and the basis of Nanning increased by 40.00% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales volume decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory increased [3]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: The prices of red dates 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased, with increases of 0.62%, 0.78%, and 0.66% respectively [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of red dates in Cangzhou remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The total number of futures registered warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 4,114, a year - on - year decrease of about 29.4% [4]. Apples - **Futures Market**: The price of the apple 2605 main contract increased by 3.91%, and the price of the apple 2610 contract increased by 0.30% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume of fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 3.34% [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2605 decreased by 0.46%, the basis increased by 350.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 8.33% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2605 decreased by 0.59%, the basis increased by 31.31%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.25% [8]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price increased by 0.35%, and the basis decreased by 3.94% [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.80%, the futures price increased by 0.65%, and the basis increased by 2.56% [9]. - **Soybeans**: The price of soybeans in Harbin remained unchanged, the futures price of the soybean - one main contract decreased by 1.30%, and the basis increased by 10.45% [9]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the pig 2605 main contract decreased by 0.62%, and the 3 - 5 spread increased by 6.25% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of pigs in various regions decreased to different degrees [13]. - **Industry Indicators**: The slaughter volume increased by 2.91%, the self - breeding profit decreased by 62.38%, and the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 60.77% [13]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of the egg 04 and 05 contracts decreased by 1.39% and 1.85% respectively [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price decreased, and the egg - chick price increased by 3.12% [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: The egg - feed ratio decreased by 9.00%, and the breeding profit decreased by 249.92% [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references of various commodities across multiple sectors including ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and financial products on March 2, 2026 [1][3] 3. Summary by Commodity Sectors Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Spot price 5628, futures price 5726, basis - 98, basis rate - 1.71%, historical quantile 47.30% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Spot price 5970, futures price 6026, basis - 56, basis rate - 0.93%, historical quantile 16.70% [1] - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Spot price 3210, futures price 3067, basis 143, basis rate 4.66%, historical quantile 60.90% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Spot price 3230, futures price 3215, basis 15, basis rate 0.47%, historical quantile 26.20% [1] - **Iron Ore (12605)**: Spot price 794, futures price 751, basis 44, basis rate 5.85%, historical quantile 36.20% [1] - **Coke (J2605)**: Spot price 1734, futures price 1636, basis 98, basis rate 6.03%, historical quantile 94.32% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Spot price 1156, futures price 1094, basis 63, basis rate 5.72%, historical quantile 38.40% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2604)**: Spot price 101980, futures price 103920, basis - 1940, basis rate - 1.87%, historical quantile 0.83% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2604)**: Spot price 23410, futures price 23835, basis - 425, basis rate - 1.78%, historical quantile 1.87% [1] - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Spot price 2622, futures price 2744, basis - 122, basis rate - 4.44%, historical quantile 15.85% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2604)**: Spot price 24380, futures price 24710, basis - 330, basis rate - 1.34%, historical quantile 3.54% [1] - **Tin (SN2604)**: Spot price 430000, futures price 453240, basis - 23240, basis rate - 5.13%, historical quantile 0.20% [1] - **Nickel (MISEOR)**: Spot price 138650, futures price 141560, basis - 2910, basis rate - 2.06%, historical quantile 1.04% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2604)**: Spot price 14350, futures price 14205, historical quantile 59.44% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Spot price 172000, futures price 176040, basis - 4040, basis rate - 2.29%, historical quantile 12.11% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (215605)**: Spot price 9150, futures price 8392, basis 755, basis rate 8.99%, historical quantile 50.80% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2604)**: Spot price 1142.5, futures price 1147.9, basis - 5.4, basis rate - 0.50%, historical quantile 2.20% [1] - **Silver (AG2604)**: Spot price 22369.0, futures price 23019.0, basis - 650.0, basis rate - 2.80%, historical quantile 2.30% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Spot price 3020, futures price 2833.0, basis 187.0, basis rate 6.60%, historical quantile 59.70% [1] - **Soybean Oil (y2605)**: Spot price 8510, futures price 8226.0, basis 284.0, basis rate 3.45%, historical quantile 55.90% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Spot price 8680, futures price 8780.0, basis - 100.0, basis rate - 1.14%, historical quantile 1.70% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: Spot price 2350, futures price 2287.0, basis 63.0, basis rate 2.75%, historical quantile 58.20% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Oleos)**: Spot price 9820, futures price 9185.0, basis 635.0, basis rate 6.91%, historical quantile 93.60% [1] - **Corn (C2605)**: Spot price 2390, futures price 2360.0, basis 30.0, basis rate 1.27%, historical quantile 45.60% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2605)**: Spot price 2630, futures price 2667.0, basis - 37.0, basis rate - 1.39%, historical quantile 4.30% [1] - **Live Hogs (FH5605)**: Spot price 11000, futures price 11485.0, basis - 485.0, basis rate - 4.22%, historical quantile 27.70% [1] - **Eggs (JD2604)**: Spot price 2910, futures price 3267.0, basis - 357.0, basis rate - 10.93%, historical quantile 9.40% [1] - **Cotton (CF605)**: Spot price 16600, futures price 15395.0, basis 1205.0, basis rate 7.83%, historical quantile 78.70% [1] - **Sugar (SR605)**: Spot price 5390, futures price 5324.0, basis 66.0, basis rate 1.24%, historical quantile 9.60% [1] - **Apples (AP605)**: Spot price 9400, futures price 9760.0, basis - 360.0, basis rate - 3.69%, historical quantile 9.80% [1] - **Jujubes (CJ605)**: Spot price 7900, futures price 8785.0, basis - 885.0, basis rate - 10.07%, historical quantile 46.00% [1] Energy Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX605)**: Spot price 7362.2, futures price 7394.0, basis - 31.8, basis rate - 0.43%, historical quantile 24.40% [1] - **PTA (TA605)**: Spot price 5160.0, futures price 5250.0, basis - 90.0, basis rate - 1.71%, historical quantile 20.20% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: Spot price 3610.0, futures price 3703.0, basis - 93.0, basis rate - 2.51%, historical quantile 21.70% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF604)**: Spot price 6630.0, futures price 6652.0, basis - 22.0, basis rate - 0.33%, historical quantile 35.50% [1] - **Styrene (EB2604)**: Spot price 7645.0, futures price 7524.0, basis 121.0, basis rate 1.61%, historical quantile 52.30% [1] - **Methanol (MA605)**: Spot price 2152.0, futures price 2179.0, basis - 27.0, basis rate - 1.24%, historical quantile 22.20% [1] - **Urea (UR605)**: Spot price 1860.0, futures price 1847.0, basis 13.0, basis rate 0.70%, historical quantile 21.20% [1] - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Spot price 6550.0, futures price 6597.0, basis - 47.0, basis rate - 0.71%, historical quantile 11.80% [1] - **PP (PP2605)**: Spot price 6640.0, futures price 6611.0, basis 29.0, basis rate 0.44%, historical quantile 34.50% [1] - **PVC (V2605)**: Spot price 4600.0, futures price 4792.0, basis - 192.0, basis rate - 4.01%, historical quantile 30.30% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SHEOS)**: Spot price 1981.3, futures price 2125.0, basis - 143.8, basis rate - 6.76%, historical quantile 24.40% [1] - **LPG (PG2604)**: Spot price 4748.0, futures price 4519.0, basis 229.0, basis rate 5.07%, historical quantile 44.20% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2604)**: Spot price 3290.0, futures price 3346.0, basis - 56.0, basis rate - 1.67%, historical quantile 42.00% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2603)**: Spot price 13000.0, futures price 12630.0, basis 370.0, basis rate 2.93%, historical quantile 73.40% [1] - **Glass (FG605)**: Spot price 952.0, futures price 1058.0, basis - 106.0, basis rate - 11.13%, historical quantile 33.82% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA605)**: Spot price 1151.0, futures price 1191.0, basis - 40.0, basis rate - 3.48%, historical quantile 31.72% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: Spot price 16950.0, futures price 17155.0, basis - 205.0, basis rate - 1.21%, historical quantile 81.13% [1] Financial Products - **IF2603.CFF**: Spot price 4710.6, futures price 4713.8, basis 3.2, basis rate 0.07%, historical quantile 74.00% [1] - **IH2603.CFE**: Spot price 3039.4, futures price 3045.4, basis 6.0, basis rate 0.20%, historical quantile 86.60% [1] - **IC2603.CFE**: Spot price 8658.5, futures price 8645.4, basis - 13.1, basis rate - 0.15%, historical quantile 62.70% [1] - **IM2603.CFE**: Spot price 8560.8, futures price 8531.4, basis - 29.4, basis rate - 0.35%, historical quantile 47.90% [1] - **2 - Year Bond (TS2606)**: Spot price 100.00, futures price 102.45, basis - 0.01, basis rate - 0.01%, historical quantile 24.30%, conversion factor 0.9762 [1] - **5 - Year Bond (TF2606)**: Spot price 100.19, futures price 105.99, basis 0.03, basis rate 0.03%, historical quantile 33.80%, conversion factor 0.9450 [1] - **10 - Year Bond (T2606)**: Spot price 99.97, futures price 108.39, basis 0.04, basis rate 0.04%, historical quantile 20.80%, conversion factor 0.9219 [1] - **30 - Year Bond (TL2606)**: Spot price 123.17, futures price 112.12, basis 0.57, basis rate 0.51%, historical quantile 82.10%, conversion factor 1.0935 [1]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The steel market shows a weak trend. The conflict between the US and Iran affects the passage of the Hormuz Strait, reducing the expected steel export volume and suppressing the market performance. The upcoming Two Sessions may also interfere with the demand - side expectations. Although the steel valuation is not high, the supply - demand outlook is not strong. Attention should be paid to the support levels of 3,020 yuan/ton for rebar and 3,200 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts show various changes. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,190 yuan/ton, 3,120 yuan/ton, and 3,240 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 10 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets remains unchanged at 2,910 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increases by 2 yuan/ton to 3,233 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils increases by 10 yuan/ton to 33 yuan/ton [1]. - **Output**: The daily average pig iron output increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase). The output of five major steel products decreases by 8.0 to 796.8 (- 1.0% decrease), and the rebar output decreases by 5.3 to 165.1 (- 3.1% decrease) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increases by 134.3 to 1,846.1 (7.8% increase). The rebar inventory increases by 84.6 to 800.6 (11.8% increase), and the hot - rolled coil inventory increases by 18.3 to 452.2 (4.2% increase) [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreases by 0.6 to 2.2 (- 20.6% decrease), and the apparent demand for five major steel products increases by 29.0 to 564.7 (5.4% increase). The apparent rebar demand decreases by 7.6 to 33.6 (- 18.5% decrease), and the apparent hot - rolled coil demand increases by 21.6 to 268.4 (8.8% increase) [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The iron ore market is under pressure in the short term, but there is also resistance to further price decline. The conflict between the US and Iran affects shipping and freight costs. The supply pressure persists, and the demand recovery needs to be verified. The inventory situation shows that the port inventory increases slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreases significantly. Short - term ore prices may fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to consider short - selling after a rebound [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost of various iron ore powders shows different changes. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of lower - grade powder increases by 6.5 to 854.4 (0.8% increase). The 05 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changes, with the 05 - contract basis of PB powder decreasing by 2.9 to 51.7 (- 5.3% decrease) [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume in the week decreases by 5.5 to 2,146.9 (- 0.3% decrease), and the national monthly import volume increases by 19.8 to 3,340.7 (0.6% increase) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills in the week increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase), and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume in the week decreases by 52.7 to 298.5 (- 15.0% decrease) [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increases by 145.6 to 17,091.96 (0.9% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills in the week decreases by 1,618.8 to 9,085.1 (- 15.1% decrease) [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - **Coke**: The coke futures rebounded slightly. The supply - side profit is restored to near the break - even point, and the production increases slightly. The demand - side replenishment demand is weak. The overall inventory is slightly decreased, and the supply - demand is basically balanced in the short term. It is advisable to view the market as oscillatory, with a reference range of 1,550 - 1,750 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures showed an oscillatory trend. The spot auction prices in Shanxi decreased. The supply - side production will gradually increase after the Spring Festival, and the import coal inventory accumulates. The demand - side production increases slightly, and the replenishment demand is limited after the Spring Festival. The overall inventory decreases seasonally. It is advisable to view the market as oscillatory, with a reference range of 1,000 - 1,150 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory Coke - **Coke - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remain unchanged. The coke 05 - contract price increases by 17 to 1,652 (1.0% increase) [7]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increases by 0.6 to 64.3 (0.9% increase), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreases by 0.1 to 47.1 (- 0.3% decrease) [7]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase) [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreases by 7.9 to 980.0 (- 0.8% decrease), the inventory of all - sample coking plants increases by 7.5 to 107.8 (7.5% increase), and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreases by 13.5 to 675.1 (- 2.0% decrease) [7]. - **Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap decreases by 0.9 to - 1.6 (- 59.4% decrease) [7]. Coking Coal - **Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains unchanged, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increases by 4 to 1,152 (0.3% increase). The coking coal 05 - contract price remains unchanged, and the 09 - contract price decreases by 6 to 1,189 (0.5% decrease) [7]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreases by 144.1 to 840.4 (- 17.1% decrease), and the clean coal output decreases by 74.4 to 423.9 (- 17.54% decrease) [7]. - **Demand**: The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coke production. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increases by 0.6 to 63.7 (0.9% increase), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreases by 0.1 to 47.2 (- 0.34% decrease) [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreases by 3.1 to 124.1 (- 2.5% decrease), the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreases by 80.2 to 1,079.1 (- 7.4% decrease), and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreases by 27.9 to 792.5 (- 3.4% decrease) [7]. Group 4: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. The supply increases slightly after the Spring Festival, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, and the total inventory is moderately low. The cost of blue charcoal decreases slightly, and the production profit in Ningxia is the best. The short - term supply - demand is tight, and the price may face pressure near the export cost. It is advisable to wait and see due to frequent overseas macro - changes and the approaching Two Sessions [8]. - **Ferromanganese**: The ferromanganese futures continued to rise in a "V" - shaped trend. The supply increases slightly, and the production volume is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The demand is expected to improve marginally, and the inventory accumulates significantly last week. The cost of manganese ore is firm, and the supply - demand situation restricts the price increase space. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the cost pressure in Guizhou and the 5 - 9 spread [8]. Summary by Directory Ferrosilicon - **Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increases by 38 to 5,764. The spot - prices in different regions increase to varying degrees, such as the 72%FeSi spot price in Inner Mongolia increasing by 50 to 5,330 [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increases by 17.2 to 6,019.6 (0.3% increase), and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increases by 32.8 to - 269.6 (- 10.8% increase) [8]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferrosilicon production is 98 (unchanged), and the operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises decreases by 0.1% to 28.3 [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Mysteel) is 18 (unchanged), and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase) [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises increases by 0.4 to 7.2 (0.94% increase), and the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory is 18.7 days [8]. Ferromanganese - **Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increases by 56 to 6,026. The spot - prices in different regions increase to varying degrees, such as the FeMn65Si17 spot price in Inner Mongolia increasing by 50 to 5,750 [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged at 5,500. The manganese ore supply shows that the weekly manganese ore shipping volume decreases by 22.8 to 77.8 (- 22.7% decrease) [8]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferromanganese production increases by 0.4 to 19.7 (1.8% increase) [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferromanganese demand (calculated by Mysteel) decreases by 0.1 to 11.0 (- 1.3% decrease) [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increases by 0.3 to 39.8 (0.94% increase), and the average available days of ferromanganese inventory is 2.0 days [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Affected by the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, international oil prices have strongly risen, boosting the polyolefin market from the cost side. - Polyethylene domestic supply remains high, and losses in oil - based and naphtha - based production routes have intensified this week. - The polypropylene industry is affected by more planned maintenance in March, rising raw material prices, and slow resumption of PDH and other devices. - Downstream factory operating rates are at a seasonal low. - Although the current fundamentals are under pressure, there are still expectations for post - holiday restocking demand. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of cost support and the actual recovery of downstream operating rates [1]. Methanol Industry - The conflict in the Middle East has led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, restricting Iranian methanol exports and increasing geopolitical risk premiums. - Domestic methanol operating rates remain high, but imports are affected by the conflict, and the instability of devices has increased. The arrival volume in March will decline significantly. - Demand is weak, with poor olefin demand at ports and postponed start - up of new MTO devices. - Port inventories are at a medium - to - high historical level, with expectations of destocking. Pay attention to the actual progress of the conflict and the port destocking rhythm [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda futures fluctuated weakly on the 2nd, and spot prices remained stable overall. The supply is expected to increase, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation. Demand from the alumina industry is stable, and non - aluminum demand is improving. The overall situation of domestic caustic soda supply and demand is weak, and the short - term market may be in a volatile adjustment [7]. - PVC futures fluctuated higher on the 2nd, and spot prices were weakly volatile. The current supply - demand situation of PVC has not improved, and the price is affected by cost concerns. The short - term upward sentiment of the PVC market is expected to continue, but the increase is uncertain [7]. Urea Industry - Urea futures fluctuated down on the 2nd. The supply is relatively sufficient in the short term, and inventory accumulation during the holiday has put pressure on prices. - Agricultural demand is gradually advancing, while industrial demand is slowly recovering. The price may be in a high - level stalemate in the short term. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 1800 - 1900. Attention should be paid to downstream demand progress and inventory accumulation [8]. LPG Industry - LPG prices have generally risen. The refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory have increased. - The operating rate of upstream main refineries remains unchanged, and the operating rate of downstream PDH has decreased slightly [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - Overseas main production areas are transitioning to reduced production and suspension of tapping, with a shrinking total supply and rising raw material prices. - Downstream tire enterprises are gradually resuming work, and demand is expected to be boosted. - Inventories in Qingdao are accumulating. Long positions established earlier can be held, and attention should be paid to changes in the Middle - East situation [13]. Crude Oil Industry - The conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in the risk premium of crude oil. - If the risk spreads or the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, oil prices will continue to rise significantly. If the conflict eases, there is a risk of a large - scale return of the geopolitical premium. Geopolitical conflicts usually have a pulsed impact on oil prices, and long positions should be held with caution [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene devices are operating stably, and the profit of the downstream styrene industry has been significantly repaired. However, due to import pressure and high port inventories, the price of pure benzene is mainly driven by oil prices and downstream styrene. - The profit of the styrene industry is good, and the supply in March is expected to increase slightly. The demand is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand situation is expected to show a slight destocking. The price is expected to be boosted by oil prices in the short term [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - For soda ash, the supply is in high - level oscillation, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and short - selling opportunities can be considered around 1200. - For glass, the supply is at a low level, the demand is restricted, and the inventory is seasonally accumulating. The price may be short - sold around 1075, and attention should be paid to post - holiday macro - policies and downstream market conditions [18]. Polyester Industry - PX: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in March, and the price is supported by cost and demand. The short - term trend is strong, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation. - PTA: The load has increased after the holiday, but the processing margin has been compressed. The short - term drive is limited, and the price follows the cost. - MEG: The supply will decline in March, and the demand from the polyester industry will recover seasonally. There is an expectation of slight destocking. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. - Bottle - chip: The supply will increase in March, the demand is expected to be weak, and the processing margin may decline [19]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP have generally risen, with price increases ranging from 5.85% to 7.06%. - **Inventory**: PE and PP inventories have increased, with the increase in enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP ranging from 15.79% to 89.14%. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rates have decreased slightly, and downstream weighted operating rates have decreased significantly. PP device operating rates have decreased slightly, while powder operating rates and downstream weighted operating rates have increased [1]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of methanol have risen, with the increase in MA2605 closing price reaching 8.54%. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories have all increased, with the increase in enterprise inventory reaching 57.30%. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises has decreased slightly, while the operating rate of overseas enterprises has increased significantly. The operating rate of downstream MTO devices remains unchanged, and the operating rates of some downstream industries such as formaldehyde have increased [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: Caustic soda spot prices are stable, and PVC futures prices have fluctuated higher. - **Inventory**: Caustic soda factory inventories have increased, and PVC social inventories have decreased slightly. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry has increased slightly, and the total operating rate of PVC has remained unchanged [7]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: Futures prices have fluctuated down, and most regional factory offers have been slightly adjusted. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea factory and port inventories have increased, and the number of production enterprise orders has decreased. - **Operating Rates**: The daily and weekly production of urea has increased, and the operating rate of production enterprises has increased slightly [8]. LPG Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of LPG have risen, with the increase in PG2604 reaching 6.09%. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory have increased. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream main refineries remains unchanged, and the operating rate of downstream PDH has decreased slightly [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Prices**: Spot prices of natural rubber have risen slightly, and the price of Thai standard mixed rubber has increased by 0.63%. - **Inventory**: Qingdao's bonded and general - trade inventories of natural rubber have continued to accumulate. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires have increased significantly [13]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices have risen significantly, with increases of 6.68% and 6.28% respectively. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts of crude oil and refined oil have changed significantly [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have risen, with the increase in styrene spot price reaching 5.6%. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports has decreased slightly, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports has increased by 11.1%. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain have changed slightly [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Prices**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures have decreased slightly. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash inventories have increased significantly. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of the soda ash industry has increased slightly, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has increased [18]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials and downstream polyester products have generally risen. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory has increased by 2.0%. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester industries have all increased to varying degrees [19].