Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current log market has weak supply and demand, with spot prices at a low level. In the Jiangsu region, due to low inventory, there is a shortage of some specifications of spot goods and price increases. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expectation of reduced later shipments. However, the weak demand situation is difficult to change, and the upward adjustment space is limited. Overall, there is insufficient contradiction, and the upward and downward driving forces are limited. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate in the range of 760 - 800. If the price rebounds to the upper limit of the range, short - selling on rallies can be considered [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On January 16, the price of log 2601 was 770.0, unchanged from the previous day; log 2603 was 778.5, down 2.0 from the previous day with a decline of - 0.26%; log 2605 was 790.0, unchanged; log 2607 was 801.0, down 0.5 from the previous day with a decline of - 0.06%. The basis of the main contract was - 38.5, up 2.0 from the previous day [1] - Spot prices: The prices of various types of radiation pine and spruce in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on January 16 compared with the previous day. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - A radiation pine was 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 124 euros/JAS cubic meter, both unchanged [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 19, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.966, up 0.003 from the previous day with a change of 0%. The import theoretical cost was 754.72 yuan, up 0.34 yuan from the previous day with a change of 0% [1] Supply: Monthly - In December, the port freight volume was 204.0 million cubic meters, up 14.8 million cubic meters from November with a growth rate of 7.82%. The number of ships at the port was 55.0, up 6.0 from the previous period with a growth rate of 12.24% [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory - As of January 9, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 269 million cubic meters, up 2 million cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 196.0 million cubic meters, up 1.0 million cubic meters from the previous week with a growth rate of 0.51% [1][2] Demand - As of January 9, the daily average log出库量 was 5.75 million cubic meters, up 0.1 million cubic meters from the previous week. The demand in Shandong decreased slightly, while that in Jiangsu increased. The daily average log出库量 in Shandong was 2.79 million cubic meters, down 0.1 million cubic meters from the previous week with a decline of - 3%; in Jiangsu, it was 2.35 million cubic meters, up 0.18 million cubic meters from the previous week with a growth rate of 8% [2] Arrival Forecast - From January 12 to January 18, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 6 more than the previous week with a week - on - week increase of 67%. The total arrival volume is about 48.6 million cubic meters, 18.1 million cubic meters more than the previous week with a week - on - week increase of 59% [2]

数据来源：Wind 广发期货研究所整理 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2603 | 总持仓明显下降 | 国君多空头各减仓近 2000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2603 | 总持仓保持平稳 | 海通加仓中信减仓超千手 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2603 | 总持仓明显下降 | 中信多空头各减仓 2000 手左右 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2603 | 总持仓大幅下降 | 中信多头减仓超 4000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 543.0 990.0 -1,516.0 -2,294.0 -11,232.0 60.0 -12,031.0 -16,189.0 -18,000 -16,000 -14,000 -12,000 -10,000 -8,000 -6,0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel supply and demand are both weak, with controllable real - inventory pressure and limited industrial contradictions. Prices follow raw material fluctuations, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore faces a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is suppressed by high inventory on the upside and supported by steel mill restocking expectations and hot - metal复产 on the downside. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke - After the fourth round of price cuts for coke, some coke enterprises resist further cuts and initiate price increases, which are expected to be implemented. It is recommended to go long on the dips and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - Driven by pre - Spring Festival restocking demand, it is recommended to go long on the dips and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon - Short - term ferrosilicon supply - demand contradictions are limited, and there is a lack of upward drivers at the industrial level. After a pullback, one can try to go long on the dips, with a bottom support reference of around 5500 [7]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese is in a situation of weak supply and demand. High inventory suppresses prices in the short term, but manganese ore provides support. It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a local support reference of around 5800 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have varying degrees of increase or decrease. The spread between the May contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar has widened to 161 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remain unchanged. The costs of different types of steel production have different changes, and the profits of different regions and varieties also vary [1]. Supply - The daily average hot - metal output has decreased by 0.7%, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly by 0.1%. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils has different trends [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products has decreased by 0.6%. The inventory of rebar remains unchanged, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils has decreased by 1.6% [1]. Demand - The demand has decreased month - on - month, mainly due to the seasonal weakening of rebar demand. The apparent demand for rebar remains low, while that for hot - rolled coils has recovered month - on - month, better than the seasonal average in previous years [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs and 05 - contract basis of various iron ore varieties have slightly decreased. The 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread have changed to different extents [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume has increased by 5.9%, the global shipment volume has decreased by 1.0%, and the national monthly import volume has increased by 8.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.6%, the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume has decreased by 1.0%, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output have decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory has increased by 1.7%, the 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased by 3.0%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills have increased by 10.5% [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal spot and futures prices have decreased to different extents. The basis and spreads of different contracts have also changed [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants has decreased by 0.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.3% [6]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.6% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory has increased by 0.5%, and the coking coal inventory of different entities has different trends [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap has increased by 188.0% [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot prices have decreased. The spreads between different regions and contracts have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in different regions have slightly changed, and the production profits have decreased. The prices of manganese ore raw materials remain stable [7]. Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon has decreased slightly, and the production enterprises' operating rate has decreased by 1.4% [7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon has decreased, and the iron - making - related demand indicators have also decreased [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises has decreased by 7.5%, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon have decreased [7]. Silicomanganese Prices and Spreads - Silicomanganese futures and spot prices have decreased, and the spreads between different regions and contracts have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of silicomanganese in different regions remain stable, and the manganese ore prices are strong [7]. Supply - The weekly output of silicomanganese remains unchanged, and the operating rate has decreased by 0.1% [7]. Demand - The demand for silicomanganese has decreased, and the iron - making - related demand indicators have also decreased [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample silicomanganese enterprises has decreased by 2.5%, and the average available days of silicomanganese inventory have decreased [7].

| 2.30% | 73.20% | 硅铁 (SF603) | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5698 | 5570 | 128 | 6020 | 5828 | 192 | 3.29% | 硅罐(SM603) | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 62.40% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4.33% | 137 | 58.80% | 3300 | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | 3163 | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | -15 | 热卷(HC2605) | 3300 | 3315 | -0.45% | 12.50% | | | | | | 57 | 6.96% | 44.80% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF)：淡水河谷:日照港 | 860 | 812 | 铁矿石 (12605) | 17 | 1.00% | 焦炭 (J26 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. Friday night saw a sharp decline, erasing the previous week's gains. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and consider a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes. The new energy vehicle and AI server sectors offer long - term demand support, while traditional electronics and white - goods sectors are weak [1]. Copper - In the long - term, the price bottom of copper is expected to rise due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. Short - term price strength is due to global inventory imbalances and supply concerns. However, real - terminal demand is weak, and prices may return to fundamental pricing. Attention should be paid to CL premium and LME inventory changes, with support at 97500 - 98500 [3]. Nickel - The nickel market is mainly affected by macro factors and Indonesian ore quota news. Although ore - end news provides some support, most of it has been digested. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 135000 - 145000 [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The lower support comes from tight domestic zinc ore supply, and the upper pressure comes from expected imported ore supply and negative demand feedback. Attention should be paid to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, with support around 23800 [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market shows some resilience in the off - season. However, with high valuations, there is resistance to further price increases. The short - term market may adjust widely, with the main contract running between 140,000 - 150,000. Short - term unilateral trading within the range is recommended [11]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate widely around the industry's cash - cost line, with the main contract in the range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation, with the main contract running between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include domestic inventory accumulation speed, downstream consumption resilience, and overseas monetary policies and geopolitical events [13]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to continue a high - level oscillation, with the ADC12 price in the range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material price changes, imported supply, and downstream pre - holiday stockpiling [15]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 13800 - 14500. Attention should be paid to ore - end news and downstream inventory building [18]. Polysilicon - In the polysilicon market, demand is expected to improve due to export - rush demand, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. The price may be supported at 48,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see during the cooling period and monitor production cuts and downstream demand recovery [20]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating at a low level. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side production changes and potential further polysilicon production cuts [21]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.81% to 414050 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 78.57% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: November tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, and December SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased by 37.69%, and social inventory increased by 36.07% [1]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.70% to 101855 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased significantly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: December electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80% to 117.81 million tons, and November imports decreased by 3.90% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased by 17.20%, and SHFE inventory increased by 18.26% [3]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.47% to 149350 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 18.75% [5]. - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel increased by 1.09% to 112237 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel imports decreased by 9.38%, and SHFE inventory increased by 3.28% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 2.40% to 24800 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: December refined zinc production decreased by 7.24% to 55.21 million tons, and November exports increased by 402.59% [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: Global visible inventory decreased slightly, and China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 0.08% [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.63% to 158000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased significantly [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: December lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04% to 99200 tons, and demand decreased by 2.50% [11]. - **Inventory Changes**: December lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 12.23% [11]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.66% to 24030 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: December alumina production increased by 1.08% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [13]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 3.08%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.41% [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.42% to 23900 yuan/ton, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum decreased [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: December recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 6.16% to 64.00 million tons, and the industry's operating rate decreased [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: Recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased slightly to 4.89 million tons [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.35% to 14350 yuan/ton, and the basis increased [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: December 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in China decreased by 2.50% to 171.93 million tons, and exports increased by 13.18% [18]. - **Inventory Changes**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.47% [18]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: N - type polysilicon feedstock average price increased by 0.18% to 54850 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 9.66% to 2.15 million tons, and imports decreased by 27.05% [20]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.29% to 32.10 million tons [20]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged at 9250 yuan/ton, and the basis increased [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: December national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and exports increased by 21.78% [21]. - **Inventory Changes**: Social inventory increased by 0.54% to 55.50 million tons [21].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月19日 | 品种 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | 展新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | 70.40% | F期现价差 | -8.67 | 41.10% | -3.84 | H期现价去 | 4.64 | 2.21 | 90.90% | 82.50% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | -22.27 | -5,81 | 83.60% | 49.70% | IM期现价差 | -23.53 | 55.80 | 80.00% | 31,9096 | 次月-当月 | -11.20 | -10.80 | 59.0096 | 36.60% | | | 零月-当月 | -13.80 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Rubber Industry - Short - term rubber price drivers are limited, expected to range between 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton, with raw material prices providing support at the lower end and weak demand capping the upside. Follow - up attention should be paid to raw material output in Thailand [1]. Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, the weekly supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the port inventory is still high, and the self - driving force is limited. For styrene, it is driven by exports, and the port inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term supply is tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. Strategically, be cautiously bearish on BZ2603, and look for opportunities to shrink the EB - BZ spread; also look for opportunities to short EB03 at high levels and shrink the EB processing fee [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: After a previous rise driven by macro - sentiment, it has fallen back. The spot price is basically flat, and the market sentiment is dull. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. The inventory is at a high level and being adjusted. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and continue to fluctuate weakly. - Glass: After a continuous decline, it rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment. The spot price has increased, and the basis has strengthened. However, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory has decreased seasonally. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and maintain a weak - fluctuating trend [3]. Crude Oil Industry - Short - term oil prices are affected by Middle East geopolitics, but the supply - demand expectation is weak. The inventory of US crude oil and refined oil has increased significantly. The rebound space of oil prices is limited, and Brent crude oil may fluctuate between $60 - 66 per barrel in the short term [4]. Polyolefin Industry - The polyolefin market is supported by rising raw material costs, but the profit first expands and then compresses. The static supply and demand both decline, and the inventory is being reduced. PP is short - term strong due to reduced supply pressure from maintenance, while PE is under pressure from reduced maintenance and import expectations. Overall, it is constrained by supply pressure and off - season demand, and the upward space may be limited [7]. LPG Industry - The prices of LPG futures contracts have declined, and the inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates have changed. No clear overall view is provided in the report [9]. Polyester Industry - PX: High supply and weak demand are expected in the first quarter, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival. In the medium - term, the supply in the second quarter is expected to be tight, and the downside space is limited. - PTA: The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken in January, with limited inventory accumulation in January but greater pressure in February. It mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. - MEG: There is a significant expectation of inventory accumulation in the near - term, and the price is under pressure in January. - Short - fiber: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and it follows the raw material fluctuations in the short term. - Polyester bottle - chips: The supply is expected to decline significantly in January, and the absolute price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost fluctuations [11]. Methanol Industry - The inland supply remains high, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory has decreased slightly, but the MTO demand is weak, which limits the price rebound. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support for the 05 contract, but an upward trend requires substantial improvement in demand [14][15]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: The spot price is weak, the supply is increasing slightly, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be bearish in the short term. - PVC: Affected by policies, the price fluctuates greatly. The fundamentals are under pressure, with stable supply growth, weak terminal demand, and inventory accumulation pressure, but the cost support is stable [16]. Urea Industry - The supply of urea is at a high level in the short term, and the demand is weak. However, there is an expectation of increased regional agricultural demand in the short term, and the inventory has decreased, which supports the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [17]. Summaries by Directory Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton to 15,700 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.32%. The whole - latex basis increased by 210 to - 135, with a daily increase of 60.87%. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 570 to - 82, with a daily decrease of 670.59%; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 570 to 570, with a daily increase of 1036.36%. Fundamental Data - In November, the rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India changed by - 9.39%, - 2.58%, and 2.20% respectively compared with the previous month. The production in China increased by 23.7 thousand tons. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in November increased by 3.96% compared with the previous month, and the tire export volume in December increased by 3.29% [1]. Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (March) increased by $0.37 to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.6%. WTI crude oil (February) increased by $0.25 to $59.44 per barrel, with a daily increase of 0.4%. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot price of styrene in East China increased by 80 yuan/ton to 7,310 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.1%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 4 to - 53, with a daily increase of - 7.0%. Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows and Inventory - The cash flows of some pure benzene and styrene downstream products have changed. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 0.6 million tons, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.17 million tons [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of glass 2605 increased by 17 yuan/ton to 1,103 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The 05 basis decreased by 17 to - 83, with a daily decrease of - 25.76%. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of soda ash 2605 decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,192 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 0.09%. The 05 basis increased by 1 to 28, with a daily increase of 1.75%. Supply and Inventory - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 5.93% compared with January 9, and the weekly output increased by 8.11%. The glass factory inventory decreased by 5.69%, and the soda ash factory inventory increased by 4.25% [3]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil increased by $0.37 to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.58%. WTI crude oil increased by $0.25 to $59.44 per barrel, with a daily increase of 0.42%. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB increased by 0.14 cents per gallon to 178.52 cents per gallon, with a daily increase of 0.08%. ICE Gasoil increased by $13 to $650.5 per ton, with a daily increase of 2.04%. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - The crack spreads of some refined oil products have changed, such as the US gasoline crack spread decreased by $0.19 to $15.54 per barrel, with a daily decrease of - 1.22% [4]. Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - The price of L2605 decreased by 119 yuan/ton to 6,814 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.75%. The L59 spread decreased by 28 to - 28. Spot Prices and Basis - The spot price of East China PP拉丝 decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 6,350 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.09%. The North China LL basis decreased by 10 to - 90, with a daily decrease of - 12.50%. Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory - The operating rate of PE devices decreased by 2.48%, and the operating rate of PP devices increased by 0.20%. The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 million tons, and the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.3 million tons [7]. LPG Industry LPG Prices and Spreads - The price of the main PG2602 decreased by 91 yuan/ton to 4,202 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 2.12%. The PG02 - 03 spread increased by 5 to 65, with a daily increase of 8.33%. LPG Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates - The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.77%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 10.4 million tons. The upstream - downstream operating rates have changed slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Upstream and Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - The price of POY150/48 decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 6,690 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 0.4%. The cash flow of POY150/48 decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 62 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 78.0%. PX - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of CFR China PX decreased by $2 to $879 per ton, with a daily decrease of - 0.2%. The PX - crude oil spread decreased by $2 to $411 per ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.1%. PTA, MEG - Related Prices and Inventory - The price of PTA East China spot decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 4,960 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.8%. The MEG port inventory increased by 7.7 million tons [11]. Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - The price of MA2605 decreased by 34 yuan/ton to 2,239 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.50%. The MA59 spread decreased by 10 to - 9, with a daily decrease of - 1000.00%. Methanol Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates - The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 million tons, and the methanol port inventory decreased by 10.19 million tons. The upstream - downstream operating rates have changed, such as the downstream - outer - sourced MTO device operating rate decreased by 11.22% [14]. Chlor - alkali Industry PVC, Caustic Soda Spot and Futures - The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 4,580 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.5%. The SH2605 price decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 2,213 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.4%. Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda remained unchanged at $350 per ton. The export profit decreased by 2.3 yuan/ton to 214.2 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.1%. PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The CFR Southeast Asia price of PVC increased by $20 to $630 per ton, with a daily increase of 3.3%. The export profit of FOB Tianjin Port calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 102.6 yuan/ton to 5.9 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 106.1%. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The operating rate of the caustic soda industry increased by 0.3%, and the operating rate of PVC increased by 0.3%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 0.8 million tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.7 million tons [16]. Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - The price of the 05 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,791 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 0.56%. The 05 - 09 contract spread decreased by 1 to 28, with a daily decrease of - 3.45%. Spot Prices and Basis - The spot price of urea in Shandong (small particles) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,770 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.57%. The Shandong basis increased by 20 to 20, with a daily increase of 11.70%. Supply and Demand - The daily output of domestic urea increased by 0.03 million tons to 19.98 million tons on January 14, with a daily increase of 0.17%. The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.61 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons [17].

| 油脂产业期现日报 F B | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月19日 王凌娃 Z0019938 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 员阳 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 马来棕榈油进口利润 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1月16日 1月15日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 江苏均价 8540 8460 80 0.95% 现价 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 期价 Y2605 8016 7938 78 0.98% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 基差 Y2605 524 522 2 0.38% | | | | | | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The supply-demand pattern of the chlor-alkali industry remains weak, with spot prices under pressure. Policy disturbances amplify price fluctuations in the futures market, but the fundamentals remain weak [1]. - For caustic soda, the spot price declined slightly this week. The low-concentration alkali in the mainstream regions faces significant pressure, and the unloading of the two major downstream industries remains difficult. The market continues to be weak. The short-term price is pressured by multiple factors and is expected to continue its weak trend next week [2]. - For PVC, the market was affected by policy news this week, with prices fluctuating sharply. The fundamentals have not changed much, with high开工 rates and stable supply growth. The terminal procurement demand is weak due to the off-season and insufficient downstream orders. The export increase is lower than expected, and the industry still faces inventory accumulation pressure. The cost support is temporarily stable. Overall, the fundamentals of PVC remain under pressure, but short-term price fluctuations are mainly driven by sentiment due to export policy changes [3]. Summary by Directory Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: The caustic soda spot price declined slightly this week, and the low-concentration alkali in the mainstream regions faces significant pressure. The market continues to be weak. The short-term price is pressured by multiple factors and is expected to continue its weak trend next week [2]. - **Supply**: The industry's operating rate is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak, leading to an increase in inventory. As of Thursday, the weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 89.14%, a 0.23 percentage point increase from last week [21][27]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries' unloading remains difficult, and the alumina procurement price has been lowered. The demand for caustic soda is mainly driven by rigid needs, and the supply-demand contradiction has not been alleviated [2]. - **Alumina Impact**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned new alumina production capacity is 12.3 million tons (with 2 million tons for replacement), and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is around 10%. The new alumina demand is equivalent to an additional 400,000 - 550,000 tons of caustic soda per year. The total demand increase for caustic soda is around 800,000 tons, with a relatively concentrated increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [32]. - **Export**: In November, the export of caustic soda weakened, but the estimated export profit increased slightly [56]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market Situation**: The PVC market was affected by policy news this week, with prices fluctuating sharply. The fundamentals have not changed much, with high operating rates and stable supply growth. The terminal procurement demand is weak due to the off-season and insufficient downstream orders. The export increase is lower than expected, and the industry still faces inventory accumulation pressure. The cost support is temporarily stable. Overall, the fundamentals of PVC remain under pressure, but short-term price fluctuations are mainly driven by sentiment due to export policy changes [3]. - **Supply**: The production of calcium carbide is at a high level, and the profit is oscillating at the bottom. This week, the theoretical loss due to shutdown and maintenance (including long-term shutdown enterprises) was 38,580 tons, a 2,280 - ton increase from last week. It is expected that the maintenance loss will increase slightly next week [66][73]. - **Demand**: The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, and the demand for PVC from the real - estate sector is weak. The overall demand for PVC lacks positive drivers [74]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of PVC is still at the highest level in recent years, indicating significant inventory pressure [81]. - **External Market**: Some external market prices of PVC have increased month - on - month [88].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily evaluations and operation suggestions for various futures varieties, including expectations of price trends, market analyses, and corresponding trading strategies [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Alumina (AO2605): Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Caustic Soda (SH2603): Weak in the near - term [3] - Coking Coal (JM2605): Expected to fluctuate strongly [3] - Eggs (JD2603): Strong in the short - term [3] All - Variety Daily Reviews Stock Index Futures - A - shares continued to rise with heavy volume and then declined, with large trading divergence and high trading volume. The callback range may be limited. For stock index futures, it is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate small - and medium - cap indexes that had smaller previous gains at low prices. Use bull - spread strategies mainly and prevent risks from large fluctuations [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - After the central bank's combined measures and the implementation of structural monetary policy interest rate cuts, the probability of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the first quarter may decrease. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate at 1.85% may be a reasonable pricing, and the certainty of a reserve requirement ratio cut is relatively high. It is expected that capital interest rates will be stable and the short - end will be stronger, and the yield curve may tend to steepen. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and participate in the steepening strategy for curve trading [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average and sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. - Silver: Policy may bring forward powder demand, intensify structural supply shortages. Keep a low - position buying idea at lows and lock in gains at highs. - Platinum: Buy at lows near the 20 - day moving average [3]. Shipping and Metals - Steel: Rebar fluctuates in the 3000 - 3200 range; hot - rolled coils fluctuate in the 3150 - 3350 range. - Iron Ore: Supply faces the off - season, and ports continue to accumulate inventory, fluctuating in the 770 - 830 range. - Coking Coal: Prices in Shanxi rise more than they fall, and trading warms up. Unilaterally go long at lows and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke. - Coke: After the fourth round of price cuts after New Year's Day, the price stabilizes. Unilaterally go long at lows and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke. - Silicon Iron: Costs are supportive, and supply - demand improves marginally. Fluctuate widely and try to go long at lows, with a bottom support around 5500. - Manganese Silicon: Manganese ore outer - market quotes generally rise, and supply - demand improves. Fluctuate widely and try to go long at lows, with a bottom support around 5800. - Copper: Copper prices are at a high level, and inventories in three locations are accumulating. Hold long positions cautiously with attention on the 99000 - 100000 support. - Alumina: Spot inventory accumulation continues, and the market fluctuates widely. The main contract operates in the 2600 - 2950 range, and sell short at highs. - Aluminum: The market reduces positions and adjusts. Be aware of emotional callback risks in the short - term. The main contract has an over - rising sign in the short - term, so do not chase long. Wait for the callback to layout long positions. - Aluminum Alloy: Inventory continues to decline, and the spot market maintains just - in - time procurement. The main contract operates in the 22000 - 24000 range. Conduct arbitrage by going long on AD03 and short on AL03. - Zinc: LME suspends zinc warehousing from South Korea, and zinc prices rise sharply. Pay attention to the 24000 support and go long at lows in the long - term. Hold cross - market reverse arbitrage positions. - Tin: Market sentiment declines, and tin prices open lower at night. Be cautious in futures operations. - Nickel: The mine - end supply is expected to tighten again, and the market runs strongly. Conduct range operations with the main contract in the 140000 - 152000 range. - Stainless Steel: The market fluctuates strongly, and raw material cost support strengthens again. Fluctuate strongly with the main contract in the 13800 - 14500 range [3]. New Energy - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon futures decline and then rebound, still oscillating at a low level. Pay attention to the change in poly - silicon production. The main contract operates in the 8000 - 9000 range. - Poly - silicon: Poly - silicon futures mainly fluctuate, with support at 48000. Fluctuate at a high level and wait and see. - Lithium Carbonate: Market sentiment eases, and the market oscillates and adjusts. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and conduct positive calendar spreads. - PX: High valuation and downstream plans for further production cuts put short - term pressure on PX. Focus on the 7000 support in the short - term, adopt low - position positive spreads in the medium - term, and conduct long - term low - buying. - PTA: High valuation and downstream plans for further production cuts put short - term pressure on PTA. Try to go long when PTA is below 5000, and treat it with a low - buying strategy in the medium - term. Conduct TA5 - 9 low - position positive spreads. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations. The single - side strategy is the same as PTA; try to shrink the processing margin on the market when it is high. - Bottle - grade PET: In January, both supply and demand of bottle - grade PET decrease, and the absolute price and processing margin follow the cost side. The processing margin of the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the 350 - 500 yuan/ton range. - Ethanol: Seasonal inventory accumulation, weak near - term supply - demand expectations, and the MEG price in January is still under pressure. Pay attention to the 4000 pressure on EG2605; conduct reverse spreads on EG5 - 9 at highs; hold short positions of out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4100. - Benzene: Supply - demand expectations improve slightly, but prices are still under pressure due to high inventory. Short - sell BR03 at highs and pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the EB - BZ spread. - Styrene: Styrene is short - term strong, but the upside is limited due to high valuation and weak expectations. Pay attention to the opportunity to short - sell EB03 at highs and the opportunity to shrink the EB processing margin when it is high [3]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: The basis remains, and the short - covering sentiment weakens. Some long positions should be closed as non - standard products turn into standard products. - PP: Maintenance increases, and prices fluctuate strongly. Hold PDH profit expansion positions. - Methanol: Geopolitical disturbances cause prices to fluctuate. Wait and see. - Caustic Soda: The weak supply - demand pattern continues, and spot prices are under pressure. Wait and see. - PVC: Export disturbances amplify market fluctuations, and short - term trading focuses are no longer on supply - demand. Market fluctuations increase, and hold short positions and wait. - Urea: Agricultural demand emerges and inventory decreases, pushing up the urea price center. Close long positions taken earlier at the right time and hold short positions and wait. - Soda Ash: Device restart and increased production load lead to a new high in daily output, while demand is still weak. Take a bearish view. - Glass: Market sentiment declines, and the sales - to - production ratio continues to fall. Short - sell in the short - term. - Natural Rubber: Short - term driving forces are limited, and the market mainly fluctuates within a range. Wait and see. - Synthetic Rubber: For BR2603, the cost side strengthens, and demand expectations improve. Pay attention to the 11800 - 12000 support for BR2603; conduct arbitrage by going long on BR2603 and short on NR2603 [3]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The market lacks driving forces, and soybean meal fluctuates. Fluctuate within a range. - Live Pigs: Driven by capital sentiment, the market is short - term strong. Fluctuate within a range. - Corn: Supply remains tight, and the market fluctuates at a high level. Run at a high level. - Oils: There are many recent disturbing factors, and short - term fluctuations intensify. Palm oil tests the 8750 support in the short - term. - Sugar: India's sugar - crushing speeds up, and prices are under pressure at highs. Fluctuate weakly within a range and pay attention to the 5300 resistance. - Cotton: The US export sales report provides support, and cotton prices fluctuate and adjust. Fluctuate at a high level. - Eggs: Egg prices are stable or rising, and supply - demand pressure is not large. Fluctuate strongly within a range and pay attention to the previous high of 3100 pressure. - Red Dates: Not provided - Apples: Market sentiment cools down, and futures prices fluctuate at a high level. Market trading is weak, and futures prices decline. It is recommended to protect long positions with put options and short - sell on rebounds [3]