1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, in the context of the Middle - East situation, if the US successfully destroys the Iranian regime, it may boost the US dollar and put pressure on precious metals after a short - term positive impact. If the US fails to achieve its goal quickly and the Middle - East remains in long - term turmoil, the safe - haven demand will drive up the price of precious metals. Gold is likely to rise above the 20 - day moving average, and long positions can be held while selling out - of - the - money call options to protect the long positions [1]. - For silver, the long - term logic of rising prices driven by supply inventory shortages and strong investment demand still holds. However, short - term exchange rule adjustments reduce physical delivery demand and cautious capital attitudes limit the upward momentum. The price is volatile, and the multi - period moving averages converge with falling volatility. The price may rise due to geopolitical risks but faces resistance at $100. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to earn time value [1]. - For platinum and palladium, supported by macro - financial attributes and a tight supply outlook, with stable industrial demand and slightly increasing investment demand, the prices are generally supported. However, it is difficult to grasp the timing of capital - driven price movements. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1197.22 yuan/gram on March 2nd, up 4.30% from February 27th [1]. - AG2604 contract closed at 24431 yuan/kilogram on March 2nd, up 6.13% from February 27th [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 626.50 yuan/gram on March 2nd, up 0.44% from February 27th [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 463.65 yuan/gram on March 2nd, down 0.26% from February 27th [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at 5335.90 on March 2nd, up 0.75% from February 27th [1]. - COMEX silver main contract closed at 89.61 on March 2nd, down 5.06% from February 27th [1]. - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at 2318.60 dollars/ounce on March 2nd, down 2.42% from February 27th [1]. - NYMEX palladium main contract closed at 1801.50 on March 2nd, down 1.45% from February 27th [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 5321.43 on March 2nd, up 0.82% from the previous value [1]. - London silver was at 89.26 on March 2nd, down 4.80% from the previous value [1]. - Spot palladium was at 2329.00 dollars/ounce on March 2nd, down 1.56% from the previous value [1]. - Another spot palladium was at 1774.50 on March 2nd, down 0.56% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1199.51 yuan/gram on March 2nd, up 4.99% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 23952 yuan/ten - gram on March 2nd, up 7.08% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 701 yuan/gram on March 2nd, down 0.60% from the previous value [1]. Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was 2.29, up 7.71 from the previous value, at the 46.10% quantile in the past year [1]. - Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis was - 479, up 171 from the previous value, at the 60.60% quantile in the past year [1]. - London gold - COMEX gold basis was - 18.14, up 2.12 from the previous value, at the 44.20% quantile in the past year [1]. - London silver - COMEX silver basis was - 0.63, up 0.06 from the previous value, at the 6.60% quantile in the past year [1]. Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver ratio was 59.55 on March 2nd, up 6.11% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 49.00 on March 2nd, down 1.73% from the previous value [1]. - NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.29 on March 2nd, down 0.99% from the previous value [1]. - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.35 on March 2nd, up 0.70% from the previous value [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.05 on March 2nd, up 2.0% from the previous value [1]. - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47 on March 2nd, up 2.7% from the previous value [1]. - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.76 on March 2nd, up 2.3% from the previous value [1]. - US dollar index was 98.55 on March 2nd, up 0.93% from the previous value [1]. - On - shore RMB exchange rate was 6.9012 on March 2nd, up 0.58% from the previous value [1]. Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 105060 on March 2nd, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 309436 kilograms on March 2nd, up 0.93% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold inventory was 33171136 on March 2nd, down 0.45% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver inventory was 357565373 on March 2nd, down 0.77% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 17035093 on March 2nd, down 0.39% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 88775861 on March 2nd, up 0.40% from the previous value [1]. - SPDR gold ETF position was 15902 on March 2nd, down 0.56% from the previous value [1].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年3月3日 | 王法庭 | Z0019938 | | 原 | | | | 3月2日 2月28日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 江苏均价 8580 8560 | 20 | 0.23% | | 期价 Y2605 8260 8226 | 34 | 0.41% | | Y2605 320 334 甚差 | -14 | -4.19% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏3月 05 + 320 05+280 | 40 | - | | 26255 26305 仓单 | -50 | -0.19% | | 棕榈油 | | | | 3月2日 2月28日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8890 8790 | 100 | 1.14% | | P2605 8898 8780 期刊 | 118 | 1.34% | | 基差 P2605 -8 10 | -18 | -180.00% | | 现货墓差报价 广东3月 05+30 05+20 盘面进口成本 厂州港5月 9204.6 8997 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][7][8] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The black metal shows a weak trend. The May contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil closed at 3067 and 3219 yuan per ton respectively. The Iran-US war affects the passage of the Hormuz Strait, leading to an expected decline in steel export volume and suppressing the performance of the futures market. The upcoming Two Sessions may interfere with the demand-side expectations. Iron ore production is rising, the output of five major steel products is stable at a low level, and inventory is seasonally accumulating, but the inventory pressure is controllable. Raw material supply is relatively loose, and raw material prices are weak, dragging down steel prices. Although the steel valuation is not high, the supply-demand outlook is not strong. Pay attention to the impact of variables on supply-demand expectations. Rebar and hot-rolled coil should focus on the support levels around 3020 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton respectively [1] Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated. The Iran-US conflict has caused a sharp rise in crude oil prices, a climb in global shipping freight, and local shipping disruptions. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly this period, and the cumulative global iron ore shipment has increased by nearly 30 million tons since the beginning of the year. The arrival volume has been declining, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in 47 ports is about 27 million tons, so supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, iron ore production has rebounded, but production resumption during the Two Sessions may be affected, and the recovery of terminal demand needs to be verified. The inventory level of finished products is acceptable, and attention should be paid to the subsequent de-stocking slope after the peak. In terms of inventory, steel mills mainly consumed raw ore inventory during the holiday, resulting in a significant decline in steel mill inventory and a slight increase in port inventory. If the daily average iron ore production in March is 2.35 million tons, there will still be a slight inventory accumulation pressure, but the accumulation speed will narrow compared to the previous period. In the short term, supply pressure still suppresses ore prices, but the inventory contradiction of finished products is not prominent, and there is also resistance to further decline in ore prices. Wait for the verification of terminal demand and policy expectations before the Two Sessions. In addition, pay attention to the changes in non-mainstream shipments. Short-term ore prices may fluctuate widely, and short positions are still considered after rebounds [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: The coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The steel mills accepted the first round of coke price increase before the holiday and are planning to lower the price after the holiday, while the port price remained stable. On the supply side, coke price adjustment lags behind coking coal, and the coking profit has recovered to near the break-even point after the price increase. After the holiday, coke production enterprises' operation increased slightly following the increase in iron ore production. On the demand side, the iron ore production of steel mills increased from a low level after the holiday, steel prices oscillated weakly, and the restocking demand was weak. In terms of inventory, both ports and steel mills reduced inventory, while coke production enterprises increased inventory, and the overall inventory decreased slightly from the middle level. The short-term supply and demand of coke are basically balanced. In terms of strategy, the short-term coke price is stable. With the approaching of the Two Sessions, there are certain policy expectations. The Iran-US conflict has driven up energy commodities, leading to a rebound in coking coal and coke futures, which is slightly positive for the black metal market but has limited impact. With multiple factors at play, it is recommended to view the market as oscillating, with a reference range of 1550 - 1750 [7] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures oscillated. In the spot market, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal decreased, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with the futures. After the holiday, the restocking demand weakened, and downstream enterprises mainly consumed inventory. However, the thermal coal market continued to rise, and different coal types showed different trends. On the supply side, after the Spring Festival holiday, coal mines gradually resumed production, and the daily output will gradually increase in the future. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and customs clearance resumed on the 23rd, with 1300 vehicles cleared on that day. On the demand side, the iron ore production of steel mills increased from a low level, the coking profit was repaired, and the operation was stable with a slight increase. After the Spring Festival, the downstream restocking demand was limited. In terms of inventory, coal mines accumulated inventory, while coke production enterprises, steel mills, coal washing plants, ports, and border ports all reduced inventory, and the overall inventory decreased seasonally. In terms of strategy, the shortage of Indonesian coal has caused the domestic thermal coal price to rise, and the market expects that it will support the coking coal price. The Iran-US conflict has driven up global energy prices, and the futures market rebounded. With multiple factors at play, it is recommended to view the market as oscillating, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150 [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon main contract rose slightly. Overseas factors are volatile, and policy expectations before the Two Sessions are strengthening. Attention should be paid to whether ferrosilicon exports will be affected. Fundamentally, after the holiday, ferrosilicon supply increased slightly, and the absolute value is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. Most production areas' output was basically the same as last week. There are expectations of production resumption in Ningxia and maintenance in Shaanxi, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. In terms of steelmaking demand, iron ore production continued to rise and accelerated. There may be production restrictions during the Two Sessions, and terminal demand needs time to recover. The low inventory of finished products gives steel mills greater flexibility in resuming production, and the overall demand is expected to improve marginally after the holiday. In terms of non-steel demand, there are positive factors for magnesium alloys, and some ferrous alloy stocks have reached the daily limit. Currently, the daily output of metallic magnesium is at a relatively high level, and it decreased slightly due to factory maintenance during the holiday. Factories are currently producing according to orders, and downstream demand is waiting to recover. In terms of cost, the price of semi-coke decreased slightly. Currently, Ningxia has the best production profit, while other production areas have varying degrees of losses. Looking forward, the short-term supply and demand of ferrosilicon are tight. The current futures price has rebounded to near the export cost and will face pressure. With frequent overseas macro changes and strengthening policy expectations before the Two Sessions, price fluctuations are expected to intensify. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8] - **Ferromanganese**: The ferromanganese main contract continued to rise in a "V" shape. Affected by spot news, it weakened during the session and then strengthened again. The Iran-US geopolitical situation has led to an increase in crude oil prices, and the shipping freight of manganese ore from South Africa, Gabon, and Brazil to China has increased by 3 - 4 US dollars per ton. Fundamentally, the supply of ferromanganese increased slightly month-on-month, and the absolute value of weekly output is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The output in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased slightly, and the output in Guangxi increased month-on-month due to the electricity price discount during the holiday, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the policy will continue after the holiday. In terms of steelmaking demand, iron ore production continued to rise and accelerated. There may be production restrictions during the Two Sessions, and terminal demand needs time to recover. The low inventory of finished products gives steel mills greater flexibility in resuming production, and the overall demand is expected to improve marginally after the holiday. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, but the warehouse receipt level is relatively low, and the total inventory is neutral. In terms of cost, the price of manganese ore is firm, and the new round of foreign quotes has been raised. There is an expectation of downstream restocking, and the supply-demand pattern continues to strengthen. Last week, the manganese ore port inventory increased significantly due to the decline in port clearance during the holiday and the increase in arrivals. Attention should be paid to the subsequent de-stocking situation. In general, the short-term price driver of ferromanganese comes from manganese ore. The current futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the supply and demand situation restricts the price increase space. Pay attention to the production resumption situation of ferromanganese. With frequent overseas macro changes and strengthening policy expectations before the Two Sessions, price fluctuations are expected to intensify. It is recommended to wait and see on a single side, pay attention to the immediate cost pressure level in Guizhou, or consider a 5 - 9 positive spread [8] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed different changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price of the 10 - contract increased by 5 yuan/ton [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The steel billet price remained unchanged at 2910 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot-rolled coil increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Output**: The daily average iron ore production increased by 2.8 to 233.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 8.0 to 796.8 tons, a 1.0% decrease. The rebar output decreased by 5.3 to 165.1 tons, a 3.1% decrease [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 134.3 to 1846.1 tons, a 7.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 84.6 to 800.6 tons, an 11.8% increase. The hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 18.3 to 452.2 tons, a 4.2% increase [1] - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.6 to 2.2 tons, a 20.6% decrease. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 29.0 to 564.7 tons, a 5.4% increase. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 7.6 to 33.6 tons, an 18.5% decrease. The apparent demand of hot-rolled coil increased by 21.6 to 268.4 tons, an 8.8% increase [1] Iron Ore Industry - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed different changes. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of low - grade powder increased by 6.5 to 854.4 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase. The 05 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changed, with the basis of PB powder decreasing by 2.9 to 51.7 yuan/ton, a 5.3% decrease [4] - **Spot Prices and Price Indices**: The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of Karara powder increased by 6.0 to 886.0 yuan/ton, a 0.7% increase [4] - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 5.5 to 2146.9 tons, a 0.3% decrease. The global shipment volume increased, and the national monthly import volume increased by 19.8 to 3340.7 tons, a 0.6% increase [4] - **Demand**: The daily average iron ore production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 52.7 to 298.5 tons, a 15.0% decrease. The national pig iron monthly output decreased by 162.4 to 6072.2 tons, a 2.6% decrease. The national crude steel monthly output decreased by 169.4 to 6817.7 tons, a 2.4% decrease [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 145.6 to 17091.96 tons, a 0.9% increase. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1618.8 to 9085.1 tons, a 15.1% decrease. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 7.0 to 23.0 days, a 23.3% decrease [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of different types of coke and their contracts showed different changes. For example, the price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1681 yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 - contract of coke increased by 17 to 1652 yuan/ton, a 1.0% increase [7] - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of different types of coking coal and their contracts also changed. For example, the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal remained unchanged at 1190 yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 - contract of coking coal increased by 1 to 1094 yuan/ton, a 0.0% increase [7] - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6 to 64.3 tons, a 0.9% increase. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.1 tons, a 0.3% decrease. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 144.1 to 840.4 tons, a 17.1% decrease. The clean coal output decreased by 74.4 to 423.9 tons, a 17.5% decrease [7] - **Demand**: The iron ore production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6 to 63.7 tons, a 0.9% increase. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.2 tons, a 0.3% decrease [7] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 7.9 to 980.0 tons, a 0.8% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 7.5 to 107.8 tons, a 7.5% increase. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 13.5 to 675.1 tons, a 2.0% decrease. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 3.1 to 124.1 tons, a 2.5% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 80.2 to 1079.1 tons, a 7.4% decrease. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 27.9 to 792.5 tons, a 3.4% decrease. The port inventory increased by 13.6 to 272.0 tons, a 5.2% increase [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - **Futures and Spot**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese main contracts increased. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions also increased to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 38 to 5764 yuan/ton, a 0.7% increase. The spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 to 5330 yuan/ton, a 0.9% increase [8] - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 17.2 to 6019.6 yuan/ton, a 0.3% increase. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 32.8 to - 269.6 yuan/ton, a 10.8% increase. The production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5500 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply**: The ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.1 to 28.3 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The ferromanganese weekly output increased by 0.4 to 19.7 tons, a 1.8% increase [8] - **Demand**: The ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged at 1.8 tons. The ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.1 to 11.0 tons, a 1.3% decrease. The daily average iron ore production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The blast furnace operation rate increased by 0.1 to 80.2%, a 0.1% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 8.0 to 796.8 tons, a

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - Affected by the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, international oil prices have strongly risen, boosting the polyolefin market from the cost side. Polyethylene domestic supply remains high, and losses in oil - based and naphtha - based production routes have intensified this week. For polypropylene, planned maintenance in March is relatively high, and the resumption progress of PDH and other devices is slow due to rising raw material prices. Downstream factory开工率 is at a seasonal low. Although the current fundamentals are under pressure, there are still expectations for post - holiday restocking demand. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of cost support and the actual recovery of downstream开工率 [1]. Methanol Industry - The escalation of the Middle - East conflict has led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and limited Iranian methanol exports, increasing geopolitical risk premiums. Domestically, the开工 rate remains high, but imports are affected by the conflict, and the arrival volume in March will decline significantly. The demand side is weak, and port olefin demand is poor. Port inventories are at a medium - high historical level, but there are expectations of inventory reduction. The current price is mainly driven by geopolitical sentiment, and attention should be paid to the actual progress of the conflict and the port inventory reduction rhythm [3]. Chlor - alkali and PVC Industry - For caustic soda, the futures fluctuated weakly on the 2nd, and the spot price remained stable. The supply is expected to increase as downstream chlorine - consuming industries resume work, increasing inventory pressure. The demand side has some support for the price. Overall, the domestic caustic soda supply - demand situation is weak, and the market may fluctuate and adjust in the short term. For PVC, the futures fluctuated higher on the 2nd, and the spot price was weakly volatile. The supply remains high, and the demand is normal. The price is affected by cost concerns and macro - sentiment, and the short - term upward sentiment may continue, but the increase is uncertain [7]. Urea Industry - The urea futures fluctuated down on the 2nd. The supply is relatively sufficient in the short term, and the inventory accumulated during the holiday exerts pressure on the price. The agricultural demand is advancing, while the industrial demand is slowly recovering. The price may be in a high - level stalemate in the short term. The main contract is expected to be in the 1800 - 1900 range, and attention should be paid to downstream demand progress and inventory accumulation [8]. LPG Industry - The LPG prices showed an upward trend on March 2nd. The炼厂库容 ratio and port inventory increased. The upstream - main refinery开工率 remained unchanged, and the downstream - PDH开工率 decreased slightly. The market is affected by various factors, and no specific overall view is provided in the report [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - Overseas main production areas are transitioning to reduced production and suspension of tapping, with a shrinking total supply and rising raw material prices. Downstream tire enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the demand is expected to be boosted. The inventory in Qingdao is accumulating. With the strengthening of overseas raw material prices and the resumption of downstream production, and the impact of the tense Middle - East situation on oil prices, the rubber price is expected to rise, and previous long positions can be held. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle - East situation [13]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose significantly. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has increased the risk premium of crude oil. If the risk spreads or the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, oil prices will continue to rise; if the conflict eases, there is a risk of a sharp decline in oil prices. Geopolitical conflicts usually have a pulsed impact on oil prices, and long positions should be held with caution [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, domestic and international devices are operating stably, and the downstream styrene industry's profit has been significantly repaired. However, due to import pressure and high port inventories, the price follows oil prices and downstream styrene fluctuations. For styrene, the industry profit is good, and the factory load has increased. In March, the supply increase is expected to be limited, and the demand is gradually recovering. The price is expected to be boosted by oil prices in the short term. For both, long positions should be reduced at high levels, and attention should be paid to price pressure and oil price trends [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - For soda ash, the supply is in high - level shock, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and short - selling can be considered around 1200. For glass, the supply is at a low level, the demand is restricted, and the inventory is seasonally increasing. The price may also fluctuate, and short - selling can be considered around 1075. Attention should be paid to post - holiday macro - policies and downstream situations [18]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve in March, and the price is supported by cost and oil prices. For PTA, the load has increased, but the processing margin has been compressed, and the price follows the cost. For ethylene glycol, the supply will decline in March, and there are expectations of inventory reduction. For short - fiber, the supply - demand is weak, and it follows raw material fluctuations. For bottle - chips, the supply will increase in March, and the processing margin may decline. For all products, long positions should be reduced at high levels, and attention should be paid to oil price trends [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 closing prices all increased by over 5%. The L59, PP59, and LP05 spreads decreased. Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also rose [1]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 decreased slightly, and the downstream加权开工率 decreased significantly. PP装置开工率 decreased slightly, while the PP粉料开工率 and downstream加权开工率 increased [1]. - **Inventory**: PE企业库存 and社会库存 increased, and PP企业 and trade - dealer inventories also increased [1]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices increased, and the MA59 spread changed significantly. Spot prices in different regions also rose [3]. - **开工率**: The domestic upstream企业开工率 decreased slightly, the overseas企业开工率 increased, and the西北企业产销率 decreased. Downstream外采MTO装置开工率 remained unchanged, while the甲醛开工率 increased [3]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业库存, port inventory, and社会库存 all increased [3]. Chlor - alkali and PVC Industry - **Price Changes**: For caustic soda, the spot price remained stable, and the futures fluctuated weakly. For PVC, the futures fluctuated higher, and the spot price was weakly volatile [7]. - **开工率**: The caustic soda行业开工率 increased slightly, and the PVC总开工率 remained unchanged. Downstream开工率 of related industries showed different trends [7]. - **Inventory**: Caustic soda厂库库存 increased, and PVC上游厂库库存 and总社会库存 changed slightly [7]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price fluctuated down, and the spot price was relatively stable [8]. - **开工率**: The尿素生产厂家开工率 increased slightly [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic尿素厂内库存 and港口库存 increased, and the企业订单天数 decreased [8]. LPG Industry - **Price Changes**: PG2603, PG2604, and PG2605 prices increased, and the PG03 - 04 and PG03 - 05 spreads changed. Spot prices also rose [9]. - **开工率**: The上游 - main refinery开工率 remained unchanged, the样本企业周度产销率 decreased slightly, and the downstream - PDH开工率 decreased [9]. - **Inventory**: The LPG炼厂库容比, port库存, and port库容比 all increased [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Price Changes**: Spot prices of natural rubber and related products changed slightly, and the月间价差 also changed [13]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of automobile tires (semi - steel and full - steel) increased significantly [13]. - **Inventory**: The保税区库存 increased, and the上期所厂库期货库存 decreased slightly [13]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices all increased significantly. The spreads between different contracts also changed significantly [16]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the裂解价差 also changed [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: Upstream prices such as crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene increased. Pure benzene and styrene prices also rose, and their spreads and cash - flows changed [17]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of related industries in the pure benzene and styrene产业链 showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [17]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene江苏港口库存 decreased slightly, and the styrene江苏港口库存 increased [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Price Changes**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed slightly [18]. - **开工率**: The soda ash开工率 and周产量 increased slightly, and the浮法日熔量 and光伏日熔量 also increased [18]. - **Inventory**: The玻璃厂库库存 and soda ash厂库库存 increased significantly [18]. Polyester Industry - **Price Changes**: Upstream prices such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX increased. Downstream polyester product prices also rose, and their spreads and cash - flows changed [19]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester - related industries showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable [19]. - **Inventory**: The MEG港口库存 increased, and the PTA华东现货价格 and期货 prices rose [19].

周末中东地缘局势快速升温，哈梅内伊身亡，随后伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队宣布全面封锁霍尔木兹海 峡，禁止所有船只通行。3 月 1 日晚，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队在声明中表示，在继续对敌方海上目标的 攻击中。3 月 2 日新华社引半岛电视台援引伊朗军方的消息报道，三艘英美油轮在波斯湾和霍尔木兹 海峡遭到袭击。船视宝数据显示，自 28 日以来，周边海域船舶航行速度普遍降至零，大量船舶"趴 窝"在附近紧急避险，霍尔木兹海峡两端被迫滞留的船舶已有一百多艘，霍尔木兹海峡船舶通航数量 断崖式下降： 数据来源：船视宝 异动点评: 地缘冲突持续升级，原油期货高开涨停 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 罗鸣（投资咨询资格编号：Z0023753） 2026 年 3 月 2 日星期一 电话：020-88818032 邮箱：qhluom@gf.com.cn 行情导读：截至今日下午收盘，上海能源交易所原油期货主力合约上涨 8.98%，报 527.8 元/桶，日增仓 6522 手。核心逻辑在于周末美伊激烈交火，且冲突有进一步扩大的趋势，地缘冲突快速升级，伊朗革命 卫队宣布禁止船只通行霍尔木兹海峡，超 150 艘油轮在海湾海域集体抛锚停 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - After the concentrated release of risks, both commodity and equity assets have recovered, but positions have not rebounded, indicating a stage of restorative rebound. The market sentiment is gradually improving, but the recovery process remains uncertain [3]. - Treasury bond futures are oscillating weakly and may continue to trade in a narrow range in the short term. The 10-year bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.85%, and the T2603 contract may trade between 108 - 108.3 [3]. - Gold is in a stage of bottoming out and rebounding, but bullish confidence still needs to be restored. Silver prices may fluctuate widely between $75 - $95 [3]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The dividend sector led the market higher, while the TMT sector was slightly weak. After the concentrated release of risks, both commodity and equity assets recovered, but positions did not rebound. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, use bull spreads, or buy call options on days of significant intraday pullbacks to position for the index [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures oscillated weakly and may continue to trade in a narrow range in the short term. It is recommended to use range - trading strategies for single - sided positions, focus on flattening the yield curve, and arrange position transfers before the Spring Festival to avoid post - holiday liquidity shortages [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a stage of bottoming out and rebounding, but bullish confidence still needs to be restored. Silver prices may fluctuate widely between $75 - $95. Platinum and palladium followed gold's rebound and entered a consolidation phase, and it is advisable to wait for a clear direction [3]. Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices have reasonable valuations and short - term long positions can be attempted. Iron ore prices are under pressure after steel mills completed restocking. It is recommended to short at around 800 [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal prices in Shanxi have weakened slightly, and Mongolian coal prices have retreated from highs. Coke price increases by major coke producers have been implemented. Both are expected to trade in a range, and a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper inventories have increased in three locations, and the CL premium is oscillating. It is recommended to take a long - term long position on dips. Aluminum prices may experience short - term increased volatility, but the long - term outlook remains positive. It is advisable to hold long positions on dips [3]. New Energy - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon futures are oscillating, and an arbitrage window is about to open. Polysilicon futures prices rose in the afternoon under the influence of the space photovoltaic concept and are expected to trade at high levels. It is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro environment is temporarily stable, and the price fluctuations have narrowed. It is recommended to use range - trading strategies [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Petrochemical Products**: PX and PTA are expected to trade in a high - level range with limited upward drivers. Short - fiber and bottle - grade polyester chips follow the raw material price trends. It is recommended to use range - trading strategies and look for opportunities to narrow the processing margins [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: Ethanol is facing significant inventory build - up pressure in February. Pure benzene and styrene are affected by supply - demand and inventory factors. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to narrow spreads [3]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The supply of soybeans and soybean meal is abundant in February. Palm oil has potential positive fundamentals in January, which may support the price. Corn prices are oscillating with weak single - sided drivers [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The number of live pig slaughterings has increased significantly, and the supply - demand game before the festival has intensified. Egg prices continue to be weak, while apple prices are oscillating higher [3]. - **Sugar, Cotton, and Others**: Sugar prices are expected to trade in a range, and cotton prices have limited downward adjustment space. It is advisable to hold long positions. Egg prices are weak, and it is recommended to hold long positions in apples and then exit at an appropriate time [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references of various commodities across multiple sectors, including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and financial futures. It offers a comprehensive view of the current price relationships and historical positions of these commodities in the market [1]. 3. Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Spot price is 5698, futures price is 5654, basis is 44, basis rate is 0.78%, historical quantile is 60.60%, and the spot reference is the converted price of 72 - silicon iron qualified blocks from Inner Mongolia to Tianjin warehouse receipts [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Spot price is 5920, futures price is 5868, basis is 55, basis rate is 0.89%, historical quantile is 35.70%, and the spot reference is the converted price of 6517 - silicon manganese from Inner Mongolia to Hubei warehouse receipts [1]. - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Spot price is 3230, futures price is 3110, basis is 120, basis rate is 3.86%, historical quantile is 53.40%, and the spot reference is HRB400 20mm in Shanghai [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Spot price is 3260, futures price is 3274, basis is - 14, basis rate is - 0.43%, historical quantile is 13.00%, and the spot reference is Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Spot price is 836, futures price is 782, basis is 54, basis rate is 7.01%, historical quantile is 44.00%, and the spot reference is the converted price of 62.5% Brazilian blended powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port [1]. - **Coke (J2605)**: Spot price is 1745, futures price is 1770, basis is - 25, basis rate is - 1.41%, historical quantile is 50.63%, and the spot reference is the converted price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Spot price is 1156, futures price is 1209, basis is - 53, basis rate is - 4.38%, historical quantile is 25.30%, and the spot reference is the converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2603)**: Spot price is 104405, futures price is 105160, basis is - 755, basis rate is - 0.72%, historical quantile is 7.91%, and the spot reference is the SMM electrolytic copper average price with an SMM opening discount of - 100 [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2603)**: Spot price is 23760, futures price is 23955, basis is - 195, basis rate is - 0.181%, historical quantile is 11.45%, and the spot reference is the SMM A00 aluminum average price with an SMM opening discount of - 210 [1]. - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Spot price is 2620, futures price is 2824, basis is - 204, basis rate is - 7.23%, historical quantile is 5.28%, and the spot reference is the SMM alumina index average price [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2603)**: Spot price is 24830, futures price is 24885, basis is - 55, basis rate is - 0.22%, historical quantile is 52.08%, and the spot reference is the SMM 1 zinc ingot average price with an SMM opening discount of - 45 [1]. - **Tin (SN2603)**: Spot price is 395050, futures price is 392080, basis is 2970, basis rate is 0.76%, historical quantile is 93.75%, and the spot reference is the SMM 1 tin average price with an SMM opening discount of 150 [1]. - **Nickel (NI2603)**: Spot price is 136800, futures price is 137680, basis is - 880, basis rate is - 0.164%, historical quantile is 18.12%, and the spot reference is the SMM 1 imported nickel average price with an SMM opening discount of - 100 [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2603)**: Spot price is 14320, futures price is 13825, basis is 495, basis rate is 3.58%, historical quantile is 88.62%, and the spot reference is 304/2B:2*1240*C from Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fees) [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Spot price is 153000, futures price is 147220, basis is 5780, basis rate is 3.93%, historical quantile is 98.67%, and the spot reference is the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2605)**: Spot price is 9350, futures price is 8850, basis is 500, basis rate is 5.55%, historical quantile is 32.08%, and the spot reference is the SMM future flux 21553032 [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2604)**: Spot price is 1140.0, futures price is 1141.7, basis is - 1.7, basis rate is - 0.10%, historical quantile is 50.20%, and the spot reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) [1]. - **Silver (AG2604)**: Spot price is 23560.0, futures price is 23511.0, basis is 49.0, basis rate is 0.20%, historical quantile is 96.40%, and the spot reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Spot price is 3010, futures price is 2723.0, basis is 287.0, basis rate is 10.54%, historical quantile is 69.30%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of common protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2605)**: Spot price is 8430, futures price is 8140.0, basis is 290.0, basis rate is 3.56%, historical quantile is 56.40%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Spot price is 9070, futures price is 9138.0, basis is - 68.0, basis rate is - 0.74%, historical quantile is 6.50%, and the spot reference is the delivery price of 24 - degree palm oil at Huangpu Port [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: Spot price is 2400, futures price is 2247.0, basis is 153.0, basis rate is 6.81%, historical quantile is 76.50%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Oleos)**: Spot price is 10010, futures price is 9243.0, basis is 767.0, basis rate is 8.30%, historical quantile is 96.40%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu [1]. - **Corn (C2603)**: Spot price is 2335, futures price is 2263.0, basis is 72.0, basis rate is 3.18%, historical quantile is 37.50%, and the spot reference is the flat - hatch price of corn at Xuzhou Port [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2603)**: Spot price is 2630, futures price is 2510.0, basis is 120.0, basis rate is 4.78%, historical quantile is 60.50%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun, Jilin [1]. - **Live Hogs (H2603)**: Spot price is 12300, futures price is 11735.0, basis is 565.0, basis rate is 4.81%, historical quantile is 60.00%, and the spot reference is the ex - farm price of live hogs (outer ternary) in Henan [1]. - **Eggs (JD2603)**: Spot price is 3690, futures price is 2945.0, basis is 745.0, basis rate is 25.30%, historical quantile is 82.00%, and the spot reference is the ex - farm price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei [1]. - **Cotton (CF605)**: Spot price is 15750, futures price is 14680.0, basis is 1070.0, basis rate is 7.29%, historical quantile is 67.40%, and the spot reference is the market price of cotton in Xinjiang [1]. - **Sugar (SR605)**: Spot price is 5360, futures price is 5210.0, basis is 150.0, basis rate is 2.88%, historical quantile is 23.30%, and the spot reference is the spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station, Guangxi [1]. - **Apples (AP605)**: Spot price is 9400, futures price is 9594.0, basis is - 194.0, basis rate is - 2.02%, historical quantile is 15.50%, and the spot reference is the apple delivery theoretical price (daily/Steel Union) [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ605)**: Spot price is 8000, futures price is 8905.0, basis is - 905.0, basis rate is - 10.16%, historical quantile is 45.70%, and the spot reference is the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei (Steel Union) [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene (PX605)**: Spot price is 7213.0, futures price is 7296.0, basis is - 83.0, basis rate is - 1.14%, historical quantile is 13.60%, and the spot reference is the spot price (CFR) of para - xylene at the Chinese main port converted into RMB [1]. - **PTA (TA605)**: Spot price is 5150.0, futures price is 5218.0, basis is - 68.0, basis rate is - 1.30%, historical quantile is 30.70%, and the spot reference is the market price (mid - price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in the East China region [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: Spot price is 3675.0, futures price is 3788.0, basis is - 113.0, basis rate is - 2.98%, historical quantile is 15.30%, and the spot reference is the market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in the East China region [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF603)**: Spot price is 6575.0, futures price is 6560.0, basis is 15.0, basis rate is 0.23%, historical quantile is 47.60%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spinning)) in the East China market [1]. - **Styrene (EB2603)**: Spot price is 7925.0, futures price is 7777.0, basis is 148.0, basis rate is 1.90%, historical quantile is 57.40%, and the spot reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China [1]. - **Methanol (MA605)**: Spot price is 2225.0, futures price is 2279.0, basis is - 54.0, basis rate is - 2.37%, historical quantile is 11.20%, and the spot reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, China [1]. - **Urea (UR605)**: Spot price is 1770.0, futures price is 1787.0, basis is - 17.0, basis rate is - 0.95%, historical quantile is 12.30%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of small - particle urea in Shandong [1]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Spot price is 6740.0, futures price is 6918.0, basis is - 178.0, basis rate is - 2.57%, historical quantile is 0.70%, and the spot reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film grade) in Shandong [1]. - **PP (PP2605)**: Spot price is 6760.0, futures price is 6801.0, basis is - 41.0, basis rate is - 0.60%, historical quantile is 16.40%, and the spot reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of polypropylene PP (draw - grade, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang [1]. - **PVC (V2605)**: Spot price is 4900.0, futures price is 5155.0, basis is - 255.0, basis rate is - 4.95%, historical quantile is 16.10%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH603)**: Spot price is 1843.8, futures price is 1978.0, basis is - 134.3, basis rate is - 6.79%, historical quantile is 25.90%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in the Shandong market, converted to 100% [1]. - **LPG (PG2603)**: Spot price is 4798.0, futures price is 4251.0, basis is 547.0, basis rate is 12.87%, historical quantile is 72.50%, and the spot reference is the market price of liquefied petroleum gas in the Guangzhou region [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2603)**: Spot price is 3250.0, futures price is 3361.0, basis is - 111.0, basis rate is - 3.30%, historical quantile is 28.00%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in Shandong [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR26

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market is firm with rising prices due to increased pre - holiday demand for construction site stocking, more factory orders, and active hedging by futures - cash traders, along with strong reluctance of traders to sell. The 03 contract has a valuation repair due to low inventory and expected decrease in later shipments. However, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the trading activity in the spot market is expected to decline gradually, and the weak demand remains unchanged. So, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see attitude towards the current price [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On February 4, 2026, the price of log 2603 was 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 6.5 yuan from the previous day with a 0.81% increase; log 2605 was 802.0 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; log 2607 was 807.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.5 yuan with a 0.06% increase. The basis of the main contract was - 57.5, down 6.5 from the previous day. Most spot prices at ports remained unchanged, while the CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine increased by 2.73% to 113 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was unchanged at 125 euros/JAS cubic meter [2] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On February 5, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.940 yuan, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day. The import theoretical cost calculated with a 15% over - length was 771.89 yuan, up 20.66 yuan from the previous day with a 3% increase [2] Supply: Monthly - In December 2025, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 109.5 million cubic meters, down 46.32% from November. The number of ships at the port was 29, down 47.27% from November [2] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 30, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 242 million cubic meters, down 7 million cubic meters from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 177.10 million cubic meters, down 6.20%; in Jiangsu, it was 40.76 million cubic meters, up 23.63% [2][3] Demand: Daily Average Outbound Volume - As of January 30, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 6.17 million cubic meters, up 0.01 million cubic meters from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.89 million cubic meters, up 8%; in Jiangsu, it was 1.59 million cubic meters, down 18% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the cost - side risks are released, the chemical sector has recovered at low levels. However, the overall supply - demand outlook for PX and PTA in the first quarter is weak, while the second - quarter supply - demand is expected to be tight, providing support for low prices. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. Short - fiber supply and demand are seasonally weak in February, and bottle - chip supply is expected to increase while demand weakens seasonally [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price was 7095 yuan/ton on February 4, down 75 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 1.1%. Its cash - flow decreased by 128 yuan to - 45.2%. FDY150/96 price was 7255 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan, and its cash - flow increased 552.0%. DTY150/48 price was 8155 yuan/ton, up 2.4%, and its cash - flow decreased by 82 yuan to - 23.5%. Polyester chip price was 5860 yuan/ton, up 1.6%, and its cash - flow decreased by 34.4%. Polyester bottle - chip price was 6256 yuan/ton, up 1.1%. The 1.4D direct - spun short - fiber price was 6560 yuan/ton, up 0.9% [2] 3.2 Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (April) was 65.14 dollars/barrel, up 1.93 dollars, a 3.1% increase. WTI crude oil (March) was 63.21 dollars/barrel, down 0.5%. CFR Japan naphtha was 598 dollars/ton, up 14 dollars, a 2.4% increase. CFR China MX was 740 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars. CFR China PX was 902 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars. PX spot price (in RMB) was 7309 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan, a 0.4% increase [2] 3.3 PX - related Prices and Spreads - PX03 - PX05 spread was - 126 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars. PX - crude oil spread decreased by 18 dollars to - 2.6%. PX - naphtha spread decreased by 3 dollars to 77 dollars/ton. PX - MX spread was 162 dollars/ton, down 4.1% [2] 3.4 PTA - related Prices and Spreads - PTA East China spot price was 5140 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan, a 1.2% increase. TA futures 2605 was 5150 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. PTA spot processing fee was 10.6%, up 39 yuan. PTA disk processing fee (05) was 439 yuan, up 2.1% [2] 3.5 MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Forecast - MEG port inventory was 89.7 million tons on February 4, up 3.9 million tons, a 4.5% increase. MEG arrival forecast was 14.7 million tons, down 2.4 million tons [2] 3.6 Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate was 81.0%, up 0.6%. Chinese PX operating rate was 89.2%, up 0.3%. PTA operating rate was 76.6%, unchanged. MEG comprehensive operating rate was 81.8%, up 3.0%. Polyester comprehensive operating rate was 86.2%, up 2.0%. Direct - spun filament operating rate was 84.6%, down 1.1%. Polyester bottle - chip operating rate was 66.1%, down 0.3%. Direct - spun short - fiber operating rate was 85.3%, down 12.9%. Pure - polyester yarn operating rate was 56.0%, down 3.0% [2] 3.7 MEG - related Prices and Spreads - MEG East China spot price was 3670 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. EG futures 2605 was 3767 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. EG05 - EG09 spread was - 111 dollars/ton, up 4.7%. Naphtha - based MEG cash - flow increased 5.0%. Ethylene - based MEG cash - flow increased by 4 dollars. MEG import profit increased by 31.8% [2] 3.8 Views on Each Product - **PX**: The supply - demand outlook in the first quarter is weak, but the second - quarter supply - demand is expected to be tight, supporting low prices. PX05 is expected to fluctuate between 7100 - 7600 in the short term, with a strategy of low - buying on a rolling basis [2] - **PTA**: The first - quarter supply - demand is weak, with expected large inventory accumulation, but the second - quarter supply - demand is expected to be tight, supporting low prices. TA05 is expected to fluctuate between 5100 - 5400 in the short term, with a strategy of low - buying on a rolling basis and a low - level positive spread for TA5 - 9 [2] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pattern is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. EG2605 is expected to fluctuate between 3700 - 4100. There is an opportunity for a positive spread for EG5 - 9 at low levels, and the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4200 can be sold at high prices [2] - **Short - fiber**: Supply and demand are seasonally weak in February. The price mainly fluctuates with raw materials. The short - fiber disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1000, with a strategy of narrowing the spread at high prices [2] - **Bottle - chip**: Supply is expected to increase in February, while demand weakens seasonally. The bottle - chip factory is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation, suppressing the processing fee. The absolute price follows the cost. The PR main - contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton, with an opportunity to narrow the spread at high prices and sell the put option PR2604 - P - 5900 at high prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views 2.1 Index Futures Spread - The current - price spreads and inter - period spreads of various index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) are presented, along with their historical percentile rankings, which can help investors understand the relative position of the current spreads in history [1]. 2.2 Bond Futures Spread - The basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of various bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL) are provided, along with their historical percentile rankings, assisting investors in analyzing the market conditions of bond futures [2]. 2.3 Precious Metals - In the short term, as market sentiment stabilizes, the bottom of the gold market is expected to be gradually established, but the bullish confidence needs to be restored, and there is a possibility of testing the 60 - day moving average support again. Silver prices may fluctuate widely in the range of 75 - 95 dollars due to factors such as regulatory restrictions and macro - news sentiment. Palladium prices will enter a consolidation phase after a short - term rebound, and it is recommended to wait for a clear direction [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Spread - **Current - price spreads**: IF is - 5.08, IH is 2.56, IC is 14.54, IM is - 3.72. Their historical 1 - year percentiles are 51.00%, 71.10%, 96.70%, 79.40% respectively, and the full - history percentiles are 77.40%, 78.60%, 98.30%, 80.00% respectively [1]. - **Inter - period spreads**: Different combinations of inter - period spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, along with their changes from the previous day and historical percentile rankings [1]. - **Cross - variety ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, CSI 300/SSE 50, CSI 1000/CSI 300, IC/IF, IC/IH, IF/IH, IM/IF are provided, with their changes and historical percentile rankings [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spread - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.1432, TF basis is 1.3414, T basis is 0.0746, TL basis is 0.1725, with their changes from the previous day and historical percentile rankings [2]. - **Inter - period spreads**: Inter - period spreads of different contracts (such as current - season to next - season, current - season to far - season) for TS, TF, T, TL are presented, along with their changes and historical percentile rankings [2]. - **Cross - variety spreads**: Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, TF - T, TS - TL, TF - TL, T - TL are provided, with their changes and historical percentile rankings [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Domestic futures closing prices**: AU2604 rose 4.38% to 1141.70 yuan/gram, AG2604 rose 9.63% to 23511 yuan/kilogram, PT2606 rose 4.69% to 599.85 yuan/gram, PD2606 rose 2.32% to 461.00 yuan/gram [3]. - **Foreign futures closing prices**: COMEX gold rose 0.32% to 4986.40 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 3.36% to 87.77 dollars/ounce, NYMEX platinum rose 0.57% to 2225.20 dollars/ounce, NYMEX palladium rose 1.26% to 1767.00 dollars/ounce [3]. - **Spot prices**: London gold rose 0.38% to 4964.83 dollars/ounce, London silver rose 3.83% to 88.69 dollars/ounce, spot platinum fell 0.50% to 2235.82 dollars/ounce, spot palladium fell 2.79% to 1766.25 dollars/ounce, Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D rose 3.99% to 1140.03 yuan/gram, Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D rose 9.07% to 23560 yuan/kilogram, Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 rose 3.76% to 588 yuan/gram [3]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 1.67, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract is 49, London gold - COMEX gold is - 24.33, London silver - COMEX silver is 0.50, with their changes and historical 1 - year percentile rankings [3]. - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver ratio fell 2.94% to 56.82, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio fell 4.79% to 48.56, NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio fell 0.68% to 1.26, Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio rose 2.32% to 1.30 [3]. - **Interest rates and exchange rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.2% to 4.29%, 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.57%, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield rose 1.0% to 1.94%, US dollar index rose 0.27% to 97.65, offshore RMB exchange rate rose 0.09% to 6.9412 [3]. - **Inventory and positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory remained unchanged at 103032, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory fell 5.87% to 423241, COMEX gold inventory fell 0.18% to 35691231, COMEX silver inventory fell 0.76% to 400790911, COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts fell 0.17% to 18962352, COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts fell 0.91% to 103070933, SPDR gold ETF position fell 0.13% to 1082, SLV silver ETF position fell 0.41% to 16370 [3].